Q4 North American Office Outlook

Save this PDF as:

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "Q4 North American Office Outlook"


1 OFFICE NORTH AMERICA HIGHLIGHTS Q4 North American Office Outlook ANDREA CROSS National Office Research Manager USA INDICATORS Relative to prior period US Q US Q1 2014* Canada Q NORTH AMERICAN OFFICE Summary Statistics, Canada Q1 2014* NET CONSTRUCTION RENTAL RATE** *Projected Construction is the change in Under Construction **Rental rates for current quarter are for CBD. Rent forecast is for metro-wide rents. US CAN NA Change From Q (MSF) NEW CONSTRUCTION (MSF) UNDER CONSTRUCTION (MSF) ASKING RENTS PER SF US CAN Downtown Class A ($) KEY TAKEAWAYS In U.S. office-using employment surpassed the pre-recession peak reached in July In December 2013, all but 13 of the 75 U.S. markets tracked by Colliers recorded year-over-year employment growth in the primary office-using sectors. Canada s private sector continued to add jobs, fueling demand for office space. The North American vacancy rate decreased by a modest 12 basis points to 13.56%. The U.S. vacancy rate decreased for the 15th consecutive quarter, dropping below 14% for the first time since Q net absorption totaled about 60 MSF, with 16 MSF in. Among the 87 North American markets tracked by Colliers, 70 posted positive absorption for the year. ICEE markets posted nearly 20 MSF of positive absorption during 2013, almost double the 11.4 MSF in the main FIRE markets. However, absorption was positive in many FIRE markets, including Midtown Manhattan, Chicago, Charlotte and Miami (all above 1.3 MSF). Canada is ahead of the U.S. in the development cycle, but construction activity has picked up in both countries. Among markets tracked by Colliers, new supply delivered in 2013 as a percentage of existing inventory was 1.0% in Canada, and 0.5% in the U.S. Space under construction at year-end 2013 represented 4.6% of existing stock in Canada and 1.1% of existing stock in the United States. Suburban assets and properties in secondary and tertiary markets are attracting greater interest from investors. Office transaction volume in the U.S. and Canada totaled nearly $107 billion in 2013, the highest annual total since Q4 s total of $38.1 billion was the highest since Q3 2007, surpassing even the Q surge in anticipation of 2013 tax increases. Change from Q Suburban Class A ($) Change from Q

2 OFFICE, INVENTORY AND NORTH AMERICA Absorption Per Market q3 '13 - q4 '13 2,000,000 1,000, , ,000-1,000,000-2,000,000 Sq. Ft. By Region 2 billion 1 billion 200 mil. Occupied Sq. Ft. Vacant Sq. Ft. Economic Trends The recovery in the primary office-using sectors (professional and business services, financial activities, and information services) gained steam in 2013, outpacing total employment growth. The U.S. added approximately 745,000 office-using jobs during the year, with a 2.6 percent year-over-year growth rate in December 2013, compared with a 1.7 percent increase in overall employment growth during the same period. The absolute gain in office-using jobs was the highest since 2005, when 789,000 office-using jobs were added. Moreover, office-using employment reached a significant milestone in Q4 2013: the number of office-using jobs has surpassed the pre-recession peak of July As of December 2013, the primary office-using employment sectors had recovered 102 percent of jobs lost during the recession; by comparison, about 88 percent of all jobs lost during the recession had been recovered as of December. The growth in office-using employment is primarily attributable to the professional and business services sector, which has added nearly 2.4 million jobs since its cyclical bottom in The Intellectual Capital, Energy and Education (or ICEE ) industries have been driving growth, but slower-to-recover sectors such as legal services and architectural firms have added to payrolls during the last few years, indicative of broader economic and office market recoveries. This bodes well for job creation and office demand during 2014, with more industries and geographies benefitting from the economic expansion. IN EMPLOYMENT FROM CYCLICAL PEAK U.S. 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% MONTHS Total Employment Office-Using Employment Professional & Business Services Financial Activities NOTE: Latest data as of January 2014; x-axis indicates number of months elapsed since each sector s previous cyclical employment peak; office-using employment sectors include professional and business services, financial activities, and information services; information services not displayed separately because sector peaked in 2001 Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Colliers International P. 2 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL

3 The financial services sector still faces a long path to recovery, having regained less than one-third of jobs lost during the recession as of December A stricter and still-uncertain regulatory environment is among the factors likely to prevent substantial growth in this sector nationally during 2014, including: More stringent stress tests of financial institutions: For the Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) administered by the Federal Reserve, firms are required to assume a 35 percent decrease in commercial real estate values for the severely adverse macroeconomic scenario compared with a 21 percent assumed decline in 2013; also, 12 additional financial institutions are required to participate this year, bringing the total to 30. New mortgage rules that could curtail mortgage lending activity: The Qualified Mortgage (QM) rule that went into effect in January 2014 requires borrowers to meet certain criteria that indicate their ability to repay loans; and the yet-to-be finalized Qualified Residential Mortgage (QRM) rule would require greater risk retention by issuers of residential mortgage-backed securities. USA TRENDS: MOST MSAs ADDING OFFICE-USING JOBS The current recovery in office-using employment is widespread. In December 2013 (the most recent data available), all but 13 of the 75 U.S. markets tracked by Colliers added jobs in the primary office-using sectors on a year-over-year basis. Also, office-using employment exceeded the pre-recession peak in 31 of the 75 U.S. markets tracked by Colliers. The fastest annual growth in December occurred primarily in Sunbelt markets, although several smaller Midwestern markets Madison, WI, and Grand Rapids, MI also ranked near the top. Many of the markets hit hardest by the recession are rebounding at a rapid rate, including Vallejo, Orlando, Tampa and Phoenix. The list of metros that have regained the highest percentage of jobs lost during the recession is dominated by ICEE markets, including Pittsburgh, Raleigh-Durham, San Jose/Silicon Valley, San Francisco/Oakland, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston and Midland, TX. With its low cost of doing business and fast-growing health care sector, the Nashville market is also thriving. S WITH HIGHEST PERCENTAGE OF OFFICE-USING JOBS RECOVERED DEC 2013 US MSA PERCENT MSA PERCENT Fayetteville, AR Midland, TX Madison, WI Trenton, NJ Pittsburgh, PA Baltimore, MD Nashville, TN Charlotte, NC Raleigh, NC Omaha, NE Dallas-Fort Worth, TX San Francisco/Oakland, CA Durham, NC Denver, CO San Jose/Silicon Valley, CA Greenville, SC Houston, TX Columbus, OH Grand Rapids, MI Jacksonville, FL UNITED STATES: 102.0% NOTE: Includes markets tracked by Colliers International; all data are seasonally adjusted as of December Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Colliers International Despite overall weakness, the financial activities sector s recovery varies significantly by metro area, with many low-cost Sunbelt and Midwestern markets benefitting from expansions or relocations of financial tenants. While many of these markets experienced relatively small declines in financial activities employment during the recession, several former housing bubble markets (Jacksonville, Boise and Phoenix) have regained all of the financial activities jobs lost during the recession as well. With the financial services industry facing continued cost pressures due to regulation, markets that offer a low cost of doing business and a well-educated workforce are well-positioned to capitalize on the modest future growth expected in the industry. For example, State Employees Credit Union re- OFFICE-USING EMPLOYMENT DEC US MSA PERCENT MSA PERCENT Raleigh, NC 5.6 Dallas-Fort Worth, TX 4.1 Madison, WI 5.4 Trenton, NJ 3.9 Grand Rapids, MI 5.3 Tampa, FL 3.7 Little Rock, AR 4.9 Houston, TX 3.6 Nashville, TN 4.8 Baltimore, MD 3.5 Vallejo, CA 4.8 Ann Arbor, MI 3.5 Fayetteville, AR 4.7 Boise, ID 3.4 Columbia, SC 4.5 Fresno, CA 3.3 Charlotte, NC 4.2 Phoenix, AZ 3.2 Orlando, FL 4.1 San Jose/Silicon Valley, CA 3.1 UNITED STATES: 2.6% NOTE: Includes markets tracked by Colliers International; all data are seasonally adjusted as of December Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Colliers International S WITH FINANCIAL ACTIVITIES EMPLOYMENT AT OR ABOVE PRE-RECESSION PEAK DEC 2013 US MSA % LOST JOBS REGAINED MSA % LOST JOBS REGAINED Ann Arbor, MI Richmond, VA Midland, TX Nashville, TN Lincoln, NE Jacksonville, FL St. Louis, MO Boise, ID Dallas-Fort Worth, TX Phoenix, AZ Pittsburgh, PA Kalamazoo, MI Omaha, NE UNITED STATES: 31.6% NOTE: Includes markets tracked by Colliers International; all data are seasonally adjusted as of December Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Colliers International COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL P. 3

4 cently announced plans to occupy an entire 240,000-square-foot building in the Raleigh CBD after originally committing to only half of the building. Texas office markets are also beneficiaries: Geico announced plans to open a 135,000-square-foot claims center in Katy, TX, near Houston; Harwood International broke ground in December on the 167,000- square-foot Class AA Frost Tower, more than one-third of which will be occupied by expanding Frost Bank; and Salamanca Group recently opened its North American regional headquarters in Houston to serve oil and gas industry clients. CANADA ECONOMIC TRENDS In Canada, economic recovery remains well ahead of the United States. As of January 2014, Canada had added nearly 2.5 times the number of jobs lost during its brief recession in late 2008/early 2009, while the U.S. had yet to recover all of the jobs lost during its much more severe downturn. Canada s private sector has been driving growth, while the public sector s impact on employment and economic growth has been flat to negative both trends that are expected to continue in As in the U.S., the energy sector has been a major driver of economic growth, benefiting the Calgary, Edmonton, Saskatoon and Regina markets. With the Canadian economy continuing to add jobs on a year-over-year basis through early 2014, we are cautiously optimistic regarding the outlook for the coming year. The Conference Board of Canada projects 2.4 percent growth in real GDP and a 1.5 percent increase in total employment in 2014, mirroring Colliers expectations for a mild economic expansion. The continued economic recovery in the United States should boost trade as well as business confidence and hiring activity among Canadian firms. Regions with concentrations of energy, manufacturing or construction activity, such as Alberta and Saskatchewan, will likely remain the strongest; while regions with higher concentrations of government and real estate, such as Ottawa and Victoria, are expected to lag. CBD OFFICE BY CANADA Toronto, ON Waterloo Region, ON Halifax, NS Victoria, BC Regina, SK Saskatoon, SK Winnipeg, MB Edmonton, AB Vancouver, BC Ottawa, ON Montréal, QC Calgary, AB CBD OFFICE UNDER CONSTRUCTION BY CANADA Toronto, ON Calgary, AB Vancouver, BC Montréal, QC Edmonton, AB Halifax, NS Winnipeg, MB Victoria, BC Waterloo Region, ON Saskatoon, SK Regina, SK Ottawa, ON , ,000.0 SF (Thousands) NOTE: Victoria, Halifax and Winnipeg report data semi-annually (Q2 and Q4). Source: Colliers International SF (Millions) AVERAGE ANNUAL REAL GDP GROWTH FORECAST CANADA GROWTH GROWTH Edmonton, AB 3.1 Montréal, QC 2.5 Calgary, AB 3.1 Halifax, NS 2.5 Vancouver, BC 2.9 Hamilton, ON 2.3 Saskatoon, SK 2.9 Victoria, BC 2.3 Toronto, ON 2.8 Ottawa-Gatineau, ON 2.1 Regina, SK 2.8 Quebec City, QC 2.1 Winnipeg, MB 2.6 CANADA: 2.5% Source: Conference Board of Canada NOTE: Victoria, Halifax and Winnipeg report data semi-annually (Q2 and Q4). Source: Colliers International WORKSPACE UTILIZATION TRENDS Despite healthy office-using employment growth, the space efficiency trend is expected to limit absorption for years to come. According to a recent CoreNet Global survey, the average amount of square footage per employee dropped from 225 square feet in 2010 to 150 square feet in 2013; and respondents expect this figure will be down to 100 square feet within five years. This trend is widespread across industries, and represents a desire to reduce real estate costs and achieve the productivity gains associated with a more collaborative environment. For example, Symetra Life Insurance is vacating 71,500 square feet in Bellevue, WA, moving employees into 218,350 square feet that the company currently occupies in an adjacent building. The firm is reducing its footprint by 25 percent, despite a slight increase in its Bellevue workforce since 2010, by reconfiguring its existing space. Under stiff budgetary pressures, the U.S. federal government continues to aggressively reduce its overall footprint by reconfiguring space and consolidating agency locations upon lease re- P. 4 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL

5 newal. For example, the General Services Administration (GSA) recently renewed a lease for the CDC s National Center for Health Statistics in Hyattsville, MD, but will reconfigure the space to downsize its footprint by 70,000 square feet while still housing a greater number of employees. GSA downsizings are shrinking the average space per employee to less than 100 square feet in some cases. This trend is occurring in Canada as well: the City of Edmonton plans to consolidate 2,000 employees in a new office tower to be delivered in 2016 that will reduce total employee square footage by as much as 25 percent. Technology also will continue to drive the efficiency trend, with employees able to work from anywhere at any time. The home, a coffee shop, the car, a hotel room or a co-working space are now viable workplaces for many employees. The traditional divide between work and personal life is blurring, with younger workers in particular more willing to be reachable outside of normal work hours in exchange for flexibility and freedom. Flexible workspace provider Regus plans to nearly double the number of its Canadian business centers in 2014, from 60 at year-end 2013 to 100 by year-end The centers offer a variety of workspace types, including private offices, meeting rooms and open, collaborative areas, and cater to a range of tenants from tech giants like Facebook and Amazon to small start-ups and independent contractors. Depending on the type of work being done, a space outside of the single-company office actually may be preferable at times, particularly given the trend toward less individual space in the traditional office. With tenants rightsizing their footprints upon lease renewal, this trend will impact office demand for the foreseeable future. A recent example that underscores the protracted nature of this trend was Dell s announcement that the company intends for 50 percent of its workforce to work remotely by 2020, up from 20 percent currently. A contrarian view of the efficiency trend has emerged in recent quarters due to concerns regarding privacy, noise, health and other productivity inhibitors caused by higher concentrations of employees. However, we believe that these concerns will be addressed through modifications to space configurations and work arrangements rather than a reversal of the densification trend. Firms will benefit from evaluating the specific type of work performed by, and personalities of, their employees rather than a one-size-fits-all approach to employee space allocations. Technology will remain a critical driver of the densification trend, both in terms of enabling worker mobility and reducing a company s requirement for physical storage and workstation space. Generational values will also play a key role, with private office and dedicated workspace being less important to millennials (or echo boomers ) than to previous generations. In Brief: Office Outlook 2014 North American Downtown Markets: Excluding renewals, of the leases signed this quarter in your CBD/downtown, did most tenants...? Expand 19.7% Contract 9.9% Hold Steady 70.4% North American Downtown Markets: What was the trend in Free Rent (in months) offered by CBD landlords this quarter? Less 10.4% More 13.0% Same 66.2% North American Downtown Markets: What was the trend for tenant improvement allowances offered by CBD landlords this quarter? Less 8.7% More 14.5% Same 76.8% BEHIND THE STATISTICS & BEYOND THE BASICS Scope of Colliers Office Outlook Report: Colliers office space universe encompasses 87 markets in the U.S. and Canada with a combined total of nearly 6.4 billion square feet. The 75 U.S. markets account for about 5.9 billion square feet of tracked inventory, with the remaining 442 million square feet in Canada. Our coverage includes 21 markets with more than 100 million square feet of space, which account for 3.8 billion square feet, or nearly 60 percent, of our office market inventory. The largest U.S. markets are New York, Washington, D.C., Chicago, Dallas and Atlanta; Toronto is the only Canadian market with more than 100 million square feet of space. The moderate pace of improvement in the office market continued through year-end Although employment in the main office-using sectors is now above the pre-recession peak, tenant downsizings due to more efficient use of space continue to result in a slower recovery in the office market relative to previous cycles. The North American vacancy rate decreased by 12 basis points during the quarter to percent, entirely attributable to improvement in the U.S. office North American Suburban Markets: Excluding renewals, of the leases signed this quarter in your suburban market, did most tenants...? Expand 26.0% Contract 9.6% Hold Steady 64.4% Charts above reflect % of markets reporting COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL P. 5

6 market. The U.S. vacancy rate decreased for the 15th consecutive quarter, dropping below 14 percent for the first time since Q Continuing a trend from recent quarters, the Canadian vacancy rate increased, nearing 8 percent, mainly due to the relatively large amount of new supply coming to market. Although the country s vacancy rate has been increasing during recent quarters, the Canadian markets remain significantly tighter than the U.S. markets. Despite having the highest vacancy rate among Canadian office markets, the Waterloo Region s vacancy rate of percent is below the overall North American office market vacancy rate of percent. Among the North American office markets with the lowest vacancy rates, six of the top ten are in Canada, including the top three: Saskatoon, Toronto and Montréal. LOWEST OVERALL RATES NA Saskatoon, SK 5.86 Calgary, AB 8.14 Toronto, ON 6.12 Vancouver, BC 8.39 Montréal, QC 7.41 Winnipeg, MB 8.46 Bakersfield, CA 7.58 Nashville, TN 8.60 Pittsburgh, PA 8.09 San Francisco, CA 9.02 Source: Colliers International MSA NORTH AMERICA: 13.56% Vacancy trends in the U.S. are indicative of the broader economic and office market recovery. Although markets that have been leading the recovery (such as San Francisco and Silicon Valley) were among the markets with the largest quarterly decrease in vacancy rate in, several markets that have been slower to recover Boise, Stockton and Las Vegas also ranked high. Job creation in a greater number of industries as well as little-to-no new supply in many U.S. office markets should fuel further declines in vacancy rates in LARGEST Q-o-Q DECREASE IN OVERALL RATE NA RATE RATE Q BASIS POINT White Plains, NY Boise, ID Greenville, SC Nashville, TN San Francisco Peninsula Westchester County, NY Stockton, CA San Jose/Silicon Valley, CA San Francisco, CA Las Vegas, NV NORTH AMERICA The strength of the primary ICEE markets continued in, posting nearly 20 million square feet of positive absorption during 2013, or roughly double the 11.4 million square feet of absorption in the main finance, insurance and real estate (FIRE) markets. Tenant demand remains robust from technology and energy firms, driving strong absorption and development activity in markets like San Francisco and Dallas. However, it is notable that many hard-hit FIRE markets posted significant positive absorption during the year, including Midtown Manhattan, Chicago, Charlotte and Miami, all of which saw more than 1.3 million square feet of absorption. TOP S FOR OFFICE 2013 NA 5.0 MSF Dallas, TX Houston, TX New Jersey - Central Boston, MA Atlanta, GA New York, NY - Midtown Manhattan Boise, ID San Jose/Silicon Valley San Francisco, CA Chicago, IL Source: Colliers International Technology industry growth is also occurring outside of the primary markets. As discussed in detail in Colliers Q report, ICEE submarkets in metro areas such as Atlanta, Phoenix and Chicago are attracting significant concentrations of tech tenants. However, markets not typically thought of as primary tech hubs also are attracting technology tenants that seek to enhance or disrupt another industry concentrated in that region, or to collaborate with a company based there. For example, GE will open an oil and gas tech research center in the Oklahoma City CBD, benefitting from proximity to the energy industry s talent and client bases. Also, Jaguar Land Rover is opening a software R&D facility focused on vehicle infotainment in Portland, OR. The company selected Portland both for its proximity to Intel, its collaborator on the project, as well as to major tech hubs Silicon Valley and Seattle. CONSTRUCTION ACTIVITY The United States and Canada are in different phases of the office development cycle. Due to its slower economic recovery and elevated vacancy rate, construction, especially speculative, remains low in the United States compared with Canada. Among markets tracked by Colliers, new supply delivered in 2013 as a percentage of existing inventory was 1.0 percent in Canada, double the 0.5 percent figure for the U.S. However, construction activity has picked up in both countries. The amount of space Source: Colliers International P. 6 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL

7 TOP S FOR OFFICE SPACE UNDER CONSTRUCTION NA 12 MSF under construction at year-end 2013 represented 4.6 percent of existing stock in Canada and 1.1 percent of existing stock in the United States, indicating further supply increases in both countries in Houston, TX Toronto, ON Calgary, AB New York, NY - Downtown Manhattan Washington, DC New York, NY - Midtown South Manhattan Boston, MA Dallas, TX San Francisco, CA NOTE: Rankings are based on the 87 U.S. and Canadian markets tracked by Colliers International Source: Colliers International Research 7.3% HIGH RISE 33.5% MID RISE Vancouver, BC U.S. OFFICE CONSTRUCTION BY TYPE % OF TOTAL SF UNDERWAY Total Under Construction: 87.1 Million Square Feet Office construction in the United States picked up slightly in recent months. Nationally, the amount of space underway increased to about 87.1 million square feet in early 2014, up from 84.8 million square feet in late Medical office space accounted for about 22 percent of all office construction underway, down slightly from nearly 25 percent the previous quarter. Speculative construction in the United States remains concentrated in a handful of markets, mostly the strongest ICEE markets and submarkets led by Houston, with 10.7 million square feet underway as of year-end 2013, or more than 12% of all construction under way in the 87 U.S. and Canadian markets tracked by Colliers. Voracious tenant demand in these markets continues to drive development activity. With Conoco Phillips pre-leasing the remaining space at Energy Center Four in Houston s Energy Corridor, developers Trammell Crow and Principal Global Investors plan to break ground on a fifth building in Rapid growth by tech tenants, and the preference of many of their younger workers to live and work in a vibrant urban core, are fueling absorption and development activity in markets like San Francisco and New York. For example, Dropbox recently leased all of the space in two adjacent SoMa projects: Kilroy s under-construction 333 Brannan, and Breevast s yet-to-break-ground 345 Brannan. CONSTRUCTION AS % OF INVENTORY NA 22.4% MSA SQUARE FEET UNDERWAY % OF INVENTORY Source: Dodge Pipeline OFFICE CONSTRUCTION BY REGION NA BY REGION SQUARE FEET (THOUSANDS) MEDICAL OFFICE 36.8% LOW RISE % OF TOTAL West South Central 23, South Atlantic 16, Pacific 10, Middle Atlantic 9, Mountain 7, East North Central 6, West North Central 5, New England 4, East South Central 2, TOTAL 87,236 Sources: Dodge Pipeline and Colliers International Calgary, AB 5,894, Vancouver, BC 3,786, Houston TX 10,727, Halifax, NS 647, Toronto, ON 7,274, San Francisco, CA 4,166, Downtown Manhattan, NY 5,035, Cincinnati, OH 2,000, San Jose/Silicon Valley, CA 2,336, Edmonton, AB 750, NORTH AMERICA 88,175,896 NOTE: Rankings are based on the 87 U.S. and Canadian markets tracked by Colliers International Source: Colliers International Speculative development activity is also occurring in submarkets with a shortage of availabilities, either overall or of a particular type of space. Indicative of tight conditions in Charlotte s South Park submarket particularly in the Class A segment Lincoln Harris plans to break ground on a pair of 240,000-square-foot buildings in mid-2014, with or without a signed tenant. Also, Liberty Property Trust broke ground on a 155,000-square-foot Class A speculative office building in Tempe in late 2014, the first at the one-million-square-foot Liberty Center at Rio Salado P. 7 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL

8 OFFICE Q UNITED STATES Q4 Q Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Q2 Q3 Q4 Source: Colliers International Absorption MSF Completions MSF Vac Rate business park. Despite an overall elevated vacancy rate in the Los Angeles metro area, Majestic Realty announced plans to build a 166,400-squarefoot spec building in the San Gabriel Valley after securing a 93,100-squarefoot lease with Bank of the West. Outside of the strongest markets and submarkets, developers remain much more cautious. Among all U.S. markets, the top 10 metro areas in terms of development activity account for more than half of all construction under way. Among the 87 U.S. and Canadian markets tracked by Colliers, 56 metros have less than 500,000 square feet underway, including 23 markets with no construction activity. Moreover, many of the projects underway are build-to-suit, even in strong ICEE markets such as Raleigh. For example, Highwoods Properties will deliver build-to-suit projects for MetLife s Global Technology & Operations group and oncology services firm Biologics in Cary, NC, demonstrating both the build-to-suit trend as well as the Raleigh-Durham area s appeal to tech and biotech firms. We expect this cautious approach to development activity to continue in most markets due to the modest pace of the economic recovery and more efficient space usage by tenants. Developers are responding to tenants preferences for open, collaborative spaces through both new buildings and redevelopment of existing properties. For example, Marshall Property Development is adding a 203-space parking structure at 2100 Grand in El Segundo, CA in order to accommodate the higher-density creative tenants that the firm hopes to attract from the adjacent West Los Angeles office market. At Houston s Energy Center, developers are constructing more private offices than in many other new projects, using glass walls to foster openness and communication rather than an open floor plan. Given productivity concerns emerging from the open floor plan trend, we may see similar designs in future new construction. Conversions of office space for other uses are removing underused or functionally obsolete space from the market. Given the strength of the multifamily market, office-to-apartment conversions are occurring in markets across the U.S. However, we are seeing conversions of other Vacancy % property types as well. Macerich plans to convert five floors of its 500 North Michigan Avenue office building in Chicago from office to retail use, given the significantly higher rents that Magnificent Mile retail space commands compared with office space. Conversions of underutilized and outmoded space should remain a supply-side driver of the office market s recovery. OUTLOOK Looking forward, we expect the U.S. office market to post continued modest declines in vacancy rate in 2014, in line with moderate job growth and low levels of speculative construction in most markets. The trend of more efficient space usage will prevent a faster decrease in vacancy. Tight construction lending standards, a modest rate of job creation and stillelevated vacancy rates in many markets should limit new supply. The Canadian vacancy rate is expected to trend upwards in 2014 and 2015 due to the large amount of new supply coming online. Most of the new space is already pre-leased, but relocating tenants will leave behind space in older Class A and B buildings. Nonetheless, the vacancy rate should remain in a healthy range, especially in the major markets, due to continued job creation and current tight market conditions. The current Canadian vacancy rate of less than 8 percent is well below the 10 percent considered indicative of a healthy market, and thus even with the active development pipeline, we do not expect the market to become oversupplied. Capital Markets & Transaction Activity The office investment market is benefitting from strong interest in U.S. real estate among both domestic and foreign buyers. Real estate s attractive risk-adjusted returns, as well as the inflation protection afforded by hard assets (given the Federal Reserve s unprecedented monetary policy) are attracting a sea of capital, both debt and equity. We expect the 10-year Treasury yield to rise to the percent range by early 2015 with the taper of the Federal Reserve s bond-buying programs. However, stronger NOI growth should maintain real estate s appeal to investors despite the rising cost of capital. Core assets in gateway markets continue to attract significant investor interest. However, given rich pricing in these markets, suburban assets and properties in secondary and tertiary markets are attracting greater interest from investors. Investors also are banking on tenant spillover demand from the strongest markets in which rents spiked in recent years. For example, Tishman Speyer acquired the 379,000-square-foot California Plaza property in Walnut Creek in the Oakland-East Bay market in early 2014, in anticipation of strengthening tenant demand due to rent spikes and low vacancies in the adjacent San Francisco and Silicon Valley markets. As a result of these trends, office transaction volume in the U.S. and Canada totaled nearly $107 billion in 2013, the highest annual total since Also, the Q4 total of $38.1 billion was the highest quarterly total P. 8 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL

9 CROSS-BORDER INVESTMENT 2013 COUNTRY OF CAPITAL ORIGIN Mil. $6,000 $5,000 $4,000 $5,038 $4,111 Total Volume: $18.5 Billion $3,000 $2,000 $2,140 $1,983 $1,335 $1,192 $846 $1,000 $638 $454 $368 $345 Canada (to U.S.) All Others China Norway Israel Germany South Korea United Kingdom Switzerland Singapore Hong Kong PHOTO: Tishman Speyer expanded its presence in the San Francisco Bay Area with the 379,000 SF California Plaza in Walnut Creek Source: NOTE: Represents investment in U.S. office properties; no cross-border investments were made in Canada in 2013 Source: Real Capital Analytics since Q3 2007, surpassing even the Q surge in transaction volume ahead of impending tax increases. Risk-adjusted returns in secondary, tertiary and suburban markets should remain attractive even as interest rates trend upwards, resulting in further increases in transaction volume in these areas. over last year and especially over the cyclical trough of just $2.7 billion in Institutional investment is also poised to increase. According to a recent survey conducted by Cornell University and Hodes Weill & Associates, institutional investor allocations in real estate currently are an average of 97 basis points below target. Moreover, institutions also plan to increase their allocation targets by an average of 52 basis points in OFFICE TRANSACTION VOLUME NA Bil % 150% 100% 50% 0% -50% Foreign capital will remain an important source of capital for U.S. real estate in According to the Association of Foreign Investors in Real Estate s (AFIRE) 2014 Foreign Investment Survey, the United States remains the destination of choice for foreign capital in nearly every respect: Most stable and secure destination for investment by more than 50 percentage points over second-place Germany; Best opportunity for capital appreciation; and Top market for planned real estate acquisitions, with 20 percent expecting a major increase in U.S. portfolio size and 48 percent expecting a modest increase % Month Trailing Volume (left-axis) Year-Over-Year % Change (right-axis) Canada also ranked high in terms of stability and security of investment, behind only the United States, Germany and the UK. NOTE: Latest data as of ; all data are 12-month trailing transaction volumes Source: Real Capital Analytics With a large amount of capital available for deployment, improving office fundamentals and the perception of U.S. real estate as a safe haven, investment volume will likely increase further in After totaling more than $86 billion in 2013 according to the Pension Real Estate Association (PREA), U.S. CMBS issuance is projected to reach or exceed $100 billion in 2014, still well below levels, but a substantial increase The U.S. dominates the list of top global cities among foreign investors. After first-place London are New York, San Francisco, Houston and Los Angeles. The emergence of Houston, not historically considered a top city for global investment, is noteworthy and attributable to its robust economy and real estate markets. Finally, among the preferred U.S. property types, office moved up from fourth in 2013 to second in 2014 in the AFIRE survey, behind only industrial. These high rankings bode well for foreign investment in U.S. and Canadian office properties in COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL P. 9

10 UNITED STATES DOWNTOWN OFFICE ALL INVENTORY INVENTORY UNDER CONSTRUCTION NORTHEAST Baltimore, MD 29,035, , ,539 39,155 Boston, MA 61,573, ,224 3,135, ,059 1,399,985 Hartford, CT 9,971, , ,437 New York, NY Downtown Manhattan 109,940, ,035, ,914 1,435,291 New York, NY Midtown Manhattan 228,738, ,839 2,510,425 New York, NY Midtown South Manhattan 160,771, ,789, , ,849 Philadelphia, PA 43,001, , ,987 Pittsburgh, PA 32,099, , ,993-61,993 Stamford, CT 18,642, ,650 48,044 Washington, DC 143,940, ,511 1,719,885 1,218, , ,918 White Plains, NY 7,705, , ,548 Northeast Total 845,420, ,511 2,536,109 15,019, ,245,015 5,207,974 SOUTH Atlanta, GA 49,957, , , ,824 Birmingham, AL 4,278, ,005 20,684 Charleston, SC 2,184,469 52,000 52, ,009 15,641 Charlotte, NC 22,550, ,766-92,352 Columbia, SC 4,474, , ,696 Dallas, TX 33,829, , , ,284 Ft. Lauderdale-Broward, FL 8,194, , ,365 Ft. Worth, TX 10,136, , ,246 75, , ,491 Greenville, SC 3,293, ,000 85, , ,356 Houston, TX 42,985, , ,987 Jacksonville, FL 15,572, , ,986 Little Rock, AR 6,562, ,441 84,881 Louisville, KY 43,267, , , ,741 Memphis, TN 6,022, , , ,228 Miami-Dade, FL 18,544, , , ,522 Nashville, TN 12,353, , , ,952 Orlando, FL 12,177, ,869 1,047 Raleigh/Durham/Chapel Hill, NC 13,704, , , , ,735 Richmond, VA 16,922, , ,714 28,903 Savannah, GA 803, ,265-5,328 Tampa Bay, FL 8,551, , ,886 W. Palm Beach/Palm Beach County, FL 9,919, ,947 86,544 South Total 346,289, , ,368 2,178, ,071,572 1,726,689 P. 10 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL

11 UNITED STATES DOWNTOWN OFFICE ALL INVENTORY (continued) INVENTORY UNDER CONSTRUCTION MIDWEST Chicago, IL 159,200, ,067, , ,890 Cincinnati, OH 18,117, , ,239 Cleveland, OH 37,848, , ,615-88,540 Columbus, OH 19,452, , , , ,827 Detroit, MI* 25,645, , ,603 Grand Rapids, MI 5,157, , ,387 Indianapolis, IN 23,640, ,619 15,152 Kansas City, MO 34,329, , , , ,388 Milwaukee, WI 19,146, ,035 45, , ,500 Minneapolis, MN 32,091, , ,774 Omaha, NE 6,490, , , , ,862 St. Louis, MO 24,122, , ,843 St. Paul, MN 11,730, , ,438 Midwest Total 416,973, ,255 1,615,367 1,587, ,216 2,133,363 WEST Albuquerque, NM 3,241, , ,436 Bakersfield, CA 3,230, ,000 72, ,017 27,196 Boise, ID 4,127, , , ,332 Denver, CO 34,378, , , , , ,441 Fresno, CA 3,320, ,894 37,267 Honolulu, HI 7,119, ,437-31,248 Las Vegas, NV 4,837, , , , ,976 Los Angeles, CA 32,566, , , ,000 Oakland, CA 16,891, , ,376 Phoenix, AZ 20,089, ,753 Portland, OR 35,076, , , ,266 Reno, NV 3,314, ,276 18,757 Sacramento, CA 13,572, , ,664 San Diego, CA 10,172, , ,237 San Francisco, CA 88,119, ,963 4,166, ,833 2,142,390 San Jose/Silicon Valley, CA 7,601, , ,963 Seattle/Puget Sound, WA 55,920,614 83, ,492 1,778, , ,330 Stockton, CA 8,221, , ,276 Walnut Creek, CA 12,450, ,473-7,510 West Total 364,251, ,034 1,745,242 8,349, ,525,563 3,787,196 U.S. TOTAL/AVERAGE 1,972,934,829 1,632,046 6,530,086 27,135, ,082,366 12,855,222 *Q3 data displayed for Detroit. COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL P. 11

12 UNITED STATES DOWNTOWN OFFICE CLASS A (continued) INVENTORY AVG. ANNUAL QUOTED RENT (USD PSF) QUARTERLY IN RENT ANNUAL IN RENT SEP 30, 2013 NORTHEAST Baltimore, MD 12,882, , ,719 Boston, MA 41,923, , ,564 Hartford, CT 6,771, , ,300 New York, NY Downtown Manhattan 77,949, ,093 1,049,104 New York, NY Midtown Manhattan 195,449, ,298 2,251,616 New York, NY Midtown South Manhattan 33,221, ,787-43,298 Philadelphia, PA 32,919, , ,360 Pittsburgh, PA 18,513, ,853 98,104 Stamford, CT 13,300, ,069 87,146 Washington, DC 88,621, , ,065 White Plains, NY 4,887, ,023-12,256 Northeast Total 526,439, ,962,579 4,532,266 SOUTH Atlanta, GA 30,135, , ,048 Birmingham, AL 3,322, ,714 11,911 Charleston, SC 1,009, ,809 9,085 Charlotte, NC 16,043, ,955 17,312 Columbia, SC 1,926, ,300 3,512 Dallas, TX 22,636, ,058 45,313 Ft. Lauderdale-Broward, FL 4,542, , ,160 Ft. Worth, TX 5,830, , ,187 Greenville, SC 2,021, ,381 76,288 Houston, TX 30,648, , ,386 Jacksonville, FL 6,846, , ,875 Little Rock, AR 2,636, ,051 32,744 Louisville, KY 10,318, , ,262 Memphis, TN 2,009, , ,851 Miami-Dade, FL 9,758, , ,261 Nashville, TN 4,269, , ,373 Orlando, FL 5,832, , ,309 Raleigh/Durham/Chapel Hill, NC 6,365, , ,740 Richmond, VA 6,030, ,353 20,318 Savannah, GA 645, ,956-9,642 Tampa Bay, FL 4,790, , ,318 W. Palm Beach/Palm Beach County, FL 3,284, ,997 57,127 South Total 180,906, ,127,049 1,660,890 P. 12 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL

13 UNITED STATES DOWNTOWN OFFICE CLASS A INVENTORY AVG. ANNUAL QUOTED RENT (USD PSF) QUARTERLY IN RENT ANNUAL IN RENT SEP 30, 2013 MIDWEST Chicago, IL 61,015, , ,494 Cincinnati, OH 8,824, ,136 7,777 Cleveland, OH 10,828, ,226 72,443 Columbus, OH 8,377, , ,532 Detroit, MI* 8,175, , ,700 Grand Rapids, MI 1,445, ,385 2,150 Indianapolis, IN 9,482, ,227 8,136 Kansas City, MO 10,449, , ,028 Milwaukee, WI 5,106, ,946 53,540 Minneapolis, MN 13,618, ,933-29,115 Omaha, NE 3,549, , ,515 St. Louis, MO 10,388, , ,897 St. Paul, MN 2,773, ,938 29,378 Midwest Total 154,034, ,169 1,316,475 WEST Albuquerque, NM 575, ,753 Bakersfield, CA 729, ,170 Boise, ID 1,895, , ,364 Denver, CO 21,423, , ,633 Fresno, CA 1,058, ,872 35,347 Honolulu, HI 4,644, ,263 46,201 Las Vegas, NV 1,103, , ,281 Los Angeles, CA 18,098, , ,900 Oakland, CA 9,842, , ,465 Phoenix, AZ 9,471, , ,701 Portland, OR 13,101, , ,580 Reno, NV 583, ,622 Sacramento, CA 5,929, , ,672 San Diego, CA 7,257, ,737-16,569 San Francisco, CA 56,345, , ,471 San Jose/Silicon Valley, CA 2,930, , ,922 Seattle/Puget Sound, WA 32,330, , ,517 Stockton, CA 2,790, , ,697 Walnut Creek, CA 8,271, ,192 20,236 West Total 198,381, ,452 1,781,023 U.S. TOTAL/AVERAGE 1,059,762, ,490,911 9,290,654 *Q3 data displayed for Detroit. COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL P. 13

14 UNITED STATES SUBURBAN OFFICE ALL INVENTORY INVENTORY UNDER CONSTRUCTION SEP 30, 2013 DEC 31, 2013 NORTHEAST Baltimore, MD 87,664, ,880 1,070,140 60, , ,316 Boston, MA 112,843, ,000 1,278,852 1,621, ,234 1,394,365 Fairfield County, CT 41,219, , ,279 Hartford, CT 12,784, , ,671 Long Island, NY 74,441,967 17,500 57,500 83, , ,436 New Jersey Central 131,633, , ,065,253 2,873,913 New Jersey Northern 163,746,002 59,528 1,047, ,344, ,240 Philadelphia, PA 110,578, , , , , ,463 Pittsburgh, PA 89,949,523 72, ,412 1,358, , ,436 Washington, DC 288,151,785 1,079,310 3,305,477 3,682, , ,470 Westchester County, NY 36,869, , , ,722 Northeast Total 1,149,881,821 2,469,981 7,915,414 8,017, ,444 6,170,991 SOUTH Atlanta, GA 171,447, ,476 1,175, ,839 2,238,242 Birmingham, AL 14,683, , ,721 Charleston, SC 9,363, , , , ,269 Charlotte, NC 62,107, , , ,722 1,494,556 Columbia, SC 4,983, ,721 54,391 Dallas, TX 240,239, ,752 1,859,340 3,743, ,566 4,488,538 Ft. Lauderdale-Broward, FL 43,108, , , ,224 Ft. Worth, TX 20,727,730 18, , , , ,856 Greenville, SC 4,757, ,126 95,892 Houston, TX 136,440,126 1,464,866 4,380,240 10,727, ,767,249 3,012,202 Jacksonville, FL 46,145,792 1,157,201 1,229, , ,074,153 1,448,590 Little Rock, AR 7,506, ,739-50,032 Memphis, TN 27,097, , , , ,755 Miami-Dade, FL 65,383, , , , ,098 Nashville, TN 15,092, , , ,255 Orlando, FL 54,246,362 86, , , , ,035 Raleigh/Durham/Chapel Hill, NC 64,922,816 23, , , , ,047 Richmond, VA 34,759,480 32,500 52,803 58, , ,447 Savannah, GA 1,461, ,556 8,508 Tampa Bay, FL 72,310, , , , , ,413 W. Palm Beach/Palm Beach, FL 28,481,014 12,000 42, , , ,628 South Total 1,125,267,075 3,396,179 9,772,150 19,255, ,914,538 18,488,187 P. 14 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL

15 UNITED STATES SUBURBAN OFFICE ALL INVENTORY (continued) INVENTORY UNDER CONSTRUCTION SEP 30, 2013 DEC 31, 2013 MIDWEST Chicago, IL 156,363, , , , ,853 1,529,516 Cincinnati, OH 35,795, ,393 2,000, , ,024 Cleveland, OH 49,992, , , ,913 Columbus, OH 44,027, , , , , ,320 Detroit, MI* 139,731, , ,638 53,394 Grand Rapids, MI 10,944, , , ,598 Indianapolis, IN 45,027, , , , ,560 Kansas City, MO 57,929, , , , ,057 1,406,021 Milwaukee, WI 33,439, , , ,431 91,979 Minneapolis, MN 79,311, ,496, ,612 1,023,559 Omaha, NE 21,042, , , , ,496 St. Louis, MO 55,605, , , ,125 Midwest Total 729,209, ,096 2,636,708 6,033, ,510,376 7,743,505 WEST Albuquerque, NM 10,877, , ,182 Bakersfield, CA 6,061,420 22,194 79,971 70, ,604 67,645 Boise, ID 17,004, ,409 2,077,128 Denver, CO 104,287,201 64, , , ,921 1,181,983 Fairfield, CA 4,809, ,733 82,499 Fresno, CA 18,304,182 41, , , ,585 Honolulu, HI 7,454, , ,996 Las Vegas, NV 36,351, , , , ,709 Los Angeles, CA 168,069, , ,000 1,312, , ,500 Los Angeles Inland Empire, CA 20,493, , , ,200 Oakland, CA 16,165, , ,207 Orange County, CA 81,047, , ,200 1,185,400 Phoenix, AZ 111,043, , , ,934 1,812,752 Pleasanton/Tri-Valley, CA 27,503, , ,073 Portland, OR 43,336, ,916 50, , ,928 Reno, NV 9,624,777 12,000 12, , ,437 Sacramento, CA 56,808,089 10, ,315 96, ,627 1,539,840 San Diego, CA 71,418, , , , , ,561 San Francisco Peninsula 35,111,880 15,695 30, , , ,649 San Jose/Silicon Valley, CA 56,585, ,482 2,123,777 2,336, ,704 1,961,853 Seattle/Puget Sound, WA 57,069, , , , ,419 Walnut Creek, CA 5,513, ,017 West Total 964,940,877 1,006,792 5,509,808 7,188, ,443,817 13,265,969 U.S. TOTAL/AVERAGE 3,969,299,407 7,586,048 25,834,080 40,495, ,236,175 45,668,652 *Q3 data displayed for Detroit. COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL P. 15