Tri-Valley Residential Real Estate Market Update
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1 Tri-Valley Residential Real Estate Market Update
2 Real Estate Market Drivers
3 Unemployment US vs CA Jan. 2018: US 4.1% & Dec. 2017: CA 4.3% 14% CA US 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% SERIES: Unemployment Source: California Rate Association of REALTORS SOURCE: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, CA Employment Development Division
4 Unemployment in California Metro Areas Dec Kern Fresno Stanislaus San Joaquin Riverside Los Angeles San Bernardino Sacramento Ventura San Diego Contra Costa Alameda Orange County Santa Clara San Francisco 4.3% 4.2% 3.9% 3.9% 3.8% 3.3% 3.1% 3.0% 2.8% 2.6% 2.4% 6.8% 6.6% 8.1% 8.6% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% 10.0% SERIES: Civilian Source: Unemployment California Association Rateof REALTORS SOURCE: CA Employment Development Division
5 Job Creation vs. Housing Units Permitted 2010 to 2015 New Jobs vs. New Permits ( ) 450, , ,300 Jobs Permits 350, , , , , , ,000 50, ,134 35, ,740 44, ,542 18,141 Los Angeles Santa Clara Orange San Francisco 141,162 40,434 San Diego 95,245 14,901 San Bernardino 98, ,586 18,108 66,054 44,772 31,255 6,349 10,890 Alameda Riverside San Mateo Sacramento SERIES: Nonfarm Source: Job California Growth Employment & Housing Affordability Development Index Department, (HAI) Construction Industry Research Board SOURCE: CA EDD, Construction Industry Research Board
6 Housing Turnover Rate CA vs US 10% 9% CA US Linear (CA) 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 5.3% 4.6% 3% 2% 1% 0% SERIES: Percent Source: of existing California single-family Association homes of REALTORS being sold SOURCE: Census Bureau, American Community Survey, Moody s Analytics, C.A.R.
7 Years Owned Before Selling SERIES: 2016 Housing Market Survey Source: California Association of REALTORS SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
8 Boomers Not Moving as Often California Homeowners by Length of Tenure, % Under % 30% 25% 20% 24.4% 21.3% 24.0% 15% 10% 5% 0% 9.0% 14.2% 12.4% 11.0% 12.0% 10.7% 8.9% 7.3% 5.7% 0.9% 0.8% 1.9% 1978 & Earlier 1979 to to to to to to to 2013 SERIES: Distribution of Home Ownership by Year Moved In Source: California Association of REALTORS SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013 American Housing Survey
9 California Home Ownership Rate by Age 80% 70% 65 &Above % 50% Overall 40% % Under 35 20% SERIES: Homeownership Rates Source: California Association of REALTORS SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey
10 Supply of Homes for Sale
11 Tri-Valley Inventory 2009 to ,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 Community Avg. Listings Listings Danville 1,165 1,200 San Ramon Dublin Livermore 1, Pleasanton , Source: Bay East Association of REALTORS Danville Dublin Livermore Pleasanton San Ramon
12 Central County Inventory 2009 to ,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 Avg. Listings Listings Castro Valley Hayward 1,253 1,111 San Leandro San Lorenzo ,500 1, Source: Bay East Association of REALTORS Castro Valley Hayward San Leandro San Lorenzo
13 Tri-Cities Inventory 2009 to ,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 Avg. Listings Listings Fremont 1,334 1,197 Newark Union City ,000 1,500 1, Source: Bay East Association of REALTORS Fremont Newark Union City
14 Sales Prices
15 Tri-Valley Sales Prices 2001 to 2017 $1,400,000 $1,200,000 $1,000,000 $800,000 Community 2017 Median Sales Price Danville $1,323,000 San Ramon $1,100,000 Dublin $1,017,500 Pleasanton $1,133,875 $791,625 $600,000 Livermore $791,625 $645,000 $400,000 $424,000 $200,000 $ Source: Bay East Association of REALTORS Danville Dublin Livermore Pleasanton San Ramon
16 Central County Sales Prices 2001 to 2017 $1,400,000 $1,200,000 $1,000,000 $800, Median Sales Price Castro Valley $825,250 Hayward $643,500 San Leandro $661,000 San Lorenzo $620,000 $600,000 $400,000 $200,000 $ Source: Bay East Association of REALTORS Castro Valley Hayward San Leandro San Lorenzo
17 Tri-Cities Sales Prices 2001 to 2017 $1,400,000 $1,200,000 $1,000,000 $800, Median Sales Prices Fremont $1,057,250 Newark $822,664 Union City $861,000 $600,000 $400,000 $200,000 $ Source: Bay East Association of REALTORS Fremont Newark Union City
18 Sales Prices: Tri-Valley vs. East Bay Rank Community Median Sales Price 1 Alamo $1,675,625 2 Lafayette $1,508,750 3 Orinda $1,428,750 4 Moraga $1,353,250 5 Danville $1,326,500 6 Berkeley $1,201,250 7 Pleasanton $1,133,875 8 San Ramon $1,100,000 9 Albany $1,085, Walnut Creek $1,083, Fremont $1,057, Alameda $1,056, Dublin $1,017, El Cerrito $882, Union City $861, Castro Valley $825, Newark $822,664 Rank Community Median Sales Price 18 Clayton $804, Livermore $791, Oakland $763, Pleasant Hill $738, San Leandro $650, Hayward $643, San Lorenzo $620, Martinez $602, Concord $599, Hercules $579, Pinole $546, Brentwood $536, El Sobrante $518, Richmond $470, Antioch $425, Pittsburg $424, San Pablo $412,750
19 County 2017 Median Sales Price San Francisco $1,380,000 San Mateo $1,375,000 Santa Clara $1,150,000 Alameda County $868,000 Pleasanton $1,333,875 Dublin $1,017,500 Livermore $791,625
20 County 2017 Median Sales Price Pleasanton $1,333,875 Dublin $1,017,500 Livermore $791,625 Sacramento $348,000 San Joaquin $355,000 Stanislaus $249,000
21 Sales Activity
22 Tri-Valley Sales Activity 2001 to ,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 Avg. Since 2012 Sales in 2017 Danville San Ramon Dublin Livermore Pleasanton Source: Bay East Association of REALTORS Danville Dublin Livermore Pleasanton San Ramon
23 Central County Sales Activity 2001 to ,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 Avg. Since 2012 Sales in 2017 Castro Valley Hayward 1,010 1,033 San Leandro San Lorenzo Source: Bay East Association of REALTORS Castro Valley Hayward San Leandro San Lorenzo
24 Tri-Cities Sales Activity 2001 to ,500 2,000 1,500 Avg. Since 2012 Sales in 2017 Fremont 1,316 1,292 Newark Union City , Source: Bay East Association of REALTORS Fremont Newark Union City
25 2017 Real Estate Market Thermometers
26 2017 Tri-Valley Real Estate Market Thermometers Community Avg. Days on Market Danville 32 San Ramon 24 Dublin 26 Pleasanton 30 Livermore 23 Community List Price to Sales Price Percentage Danville San Ramon Dublin Pleasanton Livermore
27 2018 Tri-Valley Real Estate Market Forecast
28 Demand: 1. Strong regional economy / job opportunities 2. Universal Tri-Valley desirability 3. Interest rate increases 4. New Federal tax policies Supply: 1. Limited new construction 2. Accessory Dwelling Units 3. Costa-Hawkins / Rent Control 4. Property Tax Portability
29 For more information David Stark Public Affairs Director Bay East Association of REALTORS Telephone: (925)
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