Global Warehouse Demand Shows Consistent Growth
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1 SECOND Half 2011 INDUSTRIAL GLOBAL INDUSTRIAL HIGHLIGHTS Global Warehouse Demand Shows Consistent Growth GLOBAL INDUSTRIAL CAPITALIZATION RATES (Prime Yield/Percent) (Select Markets) REGION DEC 2011 DEC 2010 Hong Kong Asia Pacific Singapore Asia Pacific London (Heathrow) EMEA Tokyo Asia Pacific Los Angeles Inland Empire, CA NA Chicago, IL NA Paris EMEA Munich EMEA Vancouver, BC NA Marseilles EMEA New Jersey Northern NA Dallas-Ft. Worth, TX NA Shanghai Asia Pacific Seoul Asia Pacific Madrid EMEA Sydney Asia Pacific Mexico City LATAM Prague EMEA Athens EMEA Bucharest EMEA GLOBAL TOP TEN INDUSTRIAL RENTS RENT (USD/ PSF/Year) 6-MONTH CHANGE* REGION Tokyo Asia Pacific % London (Heathrow) EMEA % Hong Kong Asia Pacific % Singapore Asia Pacific % Zurich EMEA % Oslo EMEA % Moscow EMEA % Geneva EMEA % São Paulo LATAM % Helsinki EMEA % Marseilles EMEA % Paris EMEA % *Local currency James Cook Director of Research USA Global Industrial Trend Forecast Growing global trade will steady demand for quality warehouse space in many regions. Industrial vacancy rates will further drop in most markets. Some markets, U.S. and Australia among them, will experience a lack of new supply in the face of growing demand. Prime warehouse rents will climb in most Asia Pacific markets, remain stable in EMEA and LATAM, and continue to strengthen in North American markets. Citing deteriorating financial conditions and dimming growth prospect, the International Monetary Fund s (IMF) revised its September 2011 World Economic Outlook growth projections downward in January However, the IMF still forecasts that global trade volume will rise by 3.8 percent in 2012 and 5.4 percent in 2013; as global trade rises, so too will demand for warehouse space. While warehouse rents have stabilized in most EMEA and Latin American markets, prime warehouse rents quoted in local currencies increased in the majority of Asia Pacific and North American markets in 2011 over the previous year. We expect this trend to continue, with prime warehouse rents climbing in most Asia Pacific and North American markets in the next year. Latin American Rents Poised to Stabilize In Latin America, prime warehouse rental rates took a fall. In 71.4 percent of the markets we track, year-end rents decreased in 2011 from a year earlier. However, we expect warehouse rents in Latin America to stabilize in the coming year. São Paulo saw a 12.4 percent drop in warehouse rents in local currency, due to increased supply. However, with absorption set to outpace supply, we expect overall warehouse rents in the São Paulo region to rise by as much as four percent in the coming year. Mexico City saw a three percent decrease in its industrial vacancy rate in the second half of 2011, down to 4.8 percent. Mexico was more negatively affected by the recession than most countries in North America, and its economic future is largely tied to that of its key trading partner, the United States. But with U.S. growth on the upswing, Mexico too is poised to grow at a modest rate and we expect that vacancies could make further drops in the country. Steady Demand in North America Since peaking in 2010, growth in the manufacturing and distribution industry has kept the U.S. vacancy rate dropping in a mostly regular fashion. Vacancy dropped to 9.72 percent in Q With construction proceeding at low levels, we expect vacancies to continue to drop at a measured rate into Toronto, Canada s biggest industrial market, saw 13.7 million square feet of industrial space absorbed in 2011, and the city s prime warehouse rents grew by 7.1 percent in the second half of Dropping Vacancies in Most Asian Markets Asia Pacific saw dropping vacancies in nearly every market. Prime warehouse rents grew in more than half of the markets, and observers in more than half of those markets expect that warehouse rents will continue to climb over the next six months. Australian industrial has been especially strong in most major markets. Retail purchases, made more attractive by the relatively strong Australian dollar, have pushed up demand for large warehouse space in several port markets. While there is growing demand for large modern warehouse Continued on page 8
2 INDUSTRIAL SURVEY LOCAL CURRENCY rents QUOTED CURRENCY MEASURE UNIT TIME PERIOD RENT, 6-MONTH CHANGE (%) BULK ASIA pacific Adelaide Australia AUD SM Year % Brisbane Australia AUD SM Year % Melbourne Australia AUD SM Year % Perth Australia AUD SM Year % Sydney Australia AUD SM Year % Beijing China CNY SM Month % Guangzhou China CNY SM Month % Hong Kong China HKD SF Month % Shanghai China CNY SM Month % Delhi India INR SF Month % Jakarta Indonesia IDR SM Month 31, % - Tokyo Japan JPY SM Month 1, % 1, Auckland New Zealand NZD SM Year % Christchurch New Zealand NZD SM Year % Wellington New Zealand NZD SM Year % Singapore Singapore SGD SF Month % 1.44 Seoul South Korea KRW SM Month 12, % 12, Chonburi Province Thailand THB SM Month % Ho Chi Minh City Vietnam USD SM Month EUROPE, MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA (EMEA) Vienna Austria EUR SM Month % 4.70 Antwerp Belgium EUR SM Month % 3.20 Brussels Belgium EUR SM Month % 3.20 Sofia Bulgaria EUR SM Month % 3.50 Zagreb Croatia EUR SM Month % 4.50 Prague Czech Republic EUR SM Month % 3.80 Copenhagen Denmark DKK SM Year % Tallinn Estonia EUR SM Month % 4.00 Helsinki Finland EUR SM Month % 7.50 Bordeaux France EUR SM Month % 3.40 Lille France EUR SM Month % 3.50 Lyon France EUR SM Month % 3.70 Marseilles France EUR SM Month % 3.40 Paris France EUR SM Month % 4.30 Toulouse France EUR SM Month % 3.50 Berlin Germany EUR SM Month % 4.30 Düsseldorf Germany EUR SM Month % 4.00 Frankfurt Germany EUR SM Month % 6.10 Hamburg Germany EUR SM Month % 5.70 Munich Germany EUR SM Month % 5.30 Stuttgart Germany EUR SM Month % 6.00 Athens Greece EUR SM Month % 2.85 Budapest Hungary EUR SM Month % 3.60 Milan Italy EUR SM Month % 4.60 Rome Italy EUR SM Month % 5.00 Riga Latvia EUR SM Month % 3.20 Vilnius Lithuania EUR SM Month % 3.70 Amsterdam Netherlands EUR SM Month % 3.80 Oslo Norway NOK SM Month % Warsaw Poland EUR SM Month % 4.50 Lisbon Portugal EUR SM Month % 3.50 Dublin Republic of Ireland EUR SM Month % 4.50 p. 2 Colliers International
3 INDUSTRIAL SURVEY LOCAL CURRENCY rents QUOTED CURRENCY MEASURE UNIT TIME PERIOD RENT, 6-MONTH CHANGE (%) BULK RENT(LOCAL EUROPE, MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA (EMEA) continued Bucharest Romania EUR SM Month % 4.00 Moscow Russia USD SM Month % Saint Petersburg Russia USD SM Month % 9.40 Belgrade Serbia EUR SM Month % 4.00 Bratislava Slovakia EUR SM Month % 3.60 Madrid Spain EUR SM Month % 3.50 Gothenburg Sweden SEK SM Year % Stockholm Sweden SEK SM Year % Geneva Switzerland CHF SM Month % Zurich Switzerland CHF SM Month % Istanbul Turkey USD SM Month % 6.00 Belfast UK GBP SF Year % 4.00 Birmingham UK GBP SF Year % 5.25 Bristol UK GBP SF Year % 5.50 Edinburgh UK GBP SF Year % 4.50 Glasgow UK GBP SF Year % 5.00 Leeds UK GBP SF Year % 5.00 London (Heathrow) UK GBP SF Year % Manchester UK GBP SF Year % 4.25 Kyiv Ukraine USD SM Month % 5.80 LATIN AMERICA Buenos Aires Argentina USD SM Month % 6.50 São Paulo Brazil USD SM Month % Santiago Chile USD SM Month % 4.48 Bogotá Colombia USD SM Month % 7.00 San José Costa Rica USD SM Year % 6.36 Mexico City Mexico USD SM Month % 4.90 Lima Peru USD SM Month % 5.00 north AMERICA Calgary, AB Canada CAD SF Year % 6.50 Edmonton, AB Canada CAD SF Year % 6.15 Guelph, ON Canada CAD SF Year % Halifax, NS Canada CAD SF Year % 5.50 Montreal, QC Canada CAD SF Year % 4.00 Ottawa, ON Canada CAD SF Year % 6.25 Saskatoon, SK Canada CAD SF Year % 8.00 Toronto, ON Canada CAD SF Year % 4.56 Vancouver, BC Canada CAD SF Year % 5.75 Victoria, BC Canada CAD SF Year % Waterloo Region, ON Canada CAD SF Year % 3.54 Atlanta, GA United States USD SF Year % 2.84 Bakersfield, CA United States USD SF Year % 3.92 Baltimore, MD United States USD SF Year % Boise, ID United States USD SF Year % 4.50 Boston, MA United States USD SF Year % 4.95 Charleston, SC United States USD SF Year % 4.00 Charlotte, NC United States USD SF Year % Chicago, IL United States USD SF Year % 2.69 Cincinnati, OH United States USD SF Year % 2.93 Cleveland, OH United States USD SF Year % Columbia, SC United States USD SF Year % 3.75 Columbus, OH United States USD SF Year % 2.46 Colliers International p. 3
4 INDUSTRIAL SURVEY LOCAL CURRENCY rents QUOTED CURRENCY MEASURE UNIT TIME PERIOD RENT, 6-MONTH CHANGE (%) BULK NORTH AMERICA continued Dallas-Ft. Worth, TX United States USD SF Year % 2.70 Denver, CO United States USD SF Year % 3.25 Detroit, MI United States USD SF Year % 3.52 Fairfield, CA United States USD SF Year % Fresno, California United States USD SF Year % 2.28 Ft. Lauderdale-Broward, FL United States USD SF Year % 6.43 Grand Rapids, MI United States USD SF Year % Greenville/Spartanburg, SC United States USD SF Year % 2.95 Hartford, CT United States USD SF Year % 4.28 Honolulu, HI United States USD SF Year % Houston, TX United States USD SF Year % 4.32 Indianapolis, IN United States USD SF Year % 2.96 Jacksonville, Fl United States USD SF Year % 3.00 Kansas City, MO-KS United States USD SF Year % 4.19 Las Vegas, NV United States USD SF Year % 4.71 Little Rock, AR United States USD SF Year % 2.74 Long Island, NY United States USD SF Year % Los Angeles Inland Empire, CA United States USD SF Year % 3.48 Los Angeles, CA United States USD SF Year % 5.28 Louisville, KY United States USD SF Year % - Memphis, TN United States USD SF Year % 2.49 Miami, FL United States USD SF Year % 7.04 Minneapolis/St. Paul, MN United States USD SF Year % Nashville, TN United States USD SF Year % 3.13 New Jersey Central United States USD SF Year % 3.77 New Jersey Northern United States USD SF Year % 5.63 Oakland, CA United States USD SF Year % 2.88 Omaha, NE United States USD SF Year % Orange County, CA United States USD SF Year % 5.76 Orlando, FL United States USD SF Year % 4.11 Philadelphia, PA United States USD SF Year % 3.75 Phoenix, AZ United States USD SF Year % 4.18 Pittsburgh, PA United States USD SF Year % Pleasanton/Walnut Creek, CA United States USD SF Year % 4.20 Portland, OR United States USD SF Year % 4.64 Raleigh, NC United States USD SF Year % Reno, NV United States USD SF Year % 3.20 Sacramento, CA United States USD SF Year % 3.77 San Diego, CA United States USD SF Year % 7.08 San Francisco Peninsula, CA United States USD SF Year % 9.24 San Jose/Silicon Valley, CA United States USD SF Year % 5.04 Savannah, GA United States USD SF Year % 3.75 Seattle/Puget Sound, WA United States USD SF Year % St. Louis, MO United States USD SF Year % Stockton/San Joaquin County, CA United States USD SF Year % 3.48 Tampa Bay, FL United States USD SF Year % 3.96 Washington, DC United States USD SF Year % West Palm Beach, FL United States USD SF Year % 6.40 p. 4 Colliers International
5 INDUSTRIAL SURVEY U.S. DOLLAR RENTS VACANCY RATES INVESTMENT rates exchange rate (USD) RENT BULK RENT (usd/sf/ year) vacancy rate (%) prime yield/ Cap rate (%) asia pacific Adelaide Australia Brisbane Australia Melbourne Australia Perth Australia Sydney Australia Beijing China Guangzhou China Hong Kong China Shanghai China Delhi India Jakarta Indonesia 9, Tokyo Japan Auckland New Zealand Christchurch New Zealand Wellington New Zealand Singapore Singapore Seoul South Korea 1, Chonburi Province Thailand Ho Chi Minh City Vietnam EUROPE, MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA (EMEA) Vienna Austria Antwerp Belgium Brussels Belgium Sofia Bulgaria Zagreb Croatia Prague Czech Republic Copenhagen Denmark Tallinn Estonia Helsinki Finland Bordeaux France Lille France Lyon France Marseilles France Paris France Toulouse France Berlin Germany Düsseldorf Germany Frankfurt Germany Hamburg Germany Munich Germany Stuttgart Germany Athens Greece Budapest Hungary Milan Italy Rome Italy Riga Latvia Vilnius Lithuania Amsterdam Netherlands Oslo Norway Warsaw Poland Lisbon Portugal * Central & Eastern European quoted vacancy rates based on Class A+B stock only Colliers International p. 5
6 INDUSTRIAL SURVEY U.S. DOLLAR RENTS VACANCY RATES INVESTMENT rates exchange rate (USD) RENT BULK RENT vacancy rate (%) prime yield/ Cap rate (%) EUROPE, MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA (EMEA) continued Dublin Republic of Ireland Bucharest Romania Moscow Russia Saint Petersburg Russia Belgrade Serbia Bratislava Slovakia Madrid Spain Gothenburg Sweden Stockholm Sweden Geneva Switzerland Zurich Switzerland Istanbul Turkey Belfast UK Birmingham UK Bristol UK Edinburgh UK Glasgow UK Leeds UK London (Heathrow) UK Manchester UK Kyiv Ukraine latin AMERICA Buenos Aires Argentina São Paulo Brazil Santiago Chile Bogotá Colombia San José Costa Rica Mexico City Mexico Lima Peru NORTH AMERICA Calgary, AB Canada Edmonton, AB Canada Guelph, ON Canada Halifax, NS Canada Montreal, QC Canada Ottawa, ON Canada Saskatoon, SK Canada Toronto, ON Canada Vancouver, BC Canada Victoria, BC Canada Waterloo Region, ON Canada Atlanta, GA United States Bakersfield, CA United States Baltimore, MD United States Boise, ID United States Boston, MA United States Charleston, SC United States Charlotte, NC United States Chicago, IL United States Cincinnati, OH United States Cleveland, OH United States Columbia, SC United States p. 6 Colliers International
7 INDUSTRIAL SURVEY U.S. DOLLAR RENTS VACANCY RATES INVESTMENT rates exchange rate (USD) RENT BULK RENT vacancy rate (%) prime yield/ Cap rate (%) NORTH AMERICA continued Columbus, OH United States Dallas-Ft. Worth, TX United States Denver, CO United States Detroit, MI United States Fairfield, CA United States Fresno, California United States Ft. Lauderdale-Broward, FL United States Grand Rapids, MI United States Greenville/Spartanburg, SC United States Hartford, CT United States Honolulu, HI United States Houston, TX United States Indianapolis, IN United States Jacksonville, Fl United States Kansas City, MO-KS United States Las Vegas, NV United States Little Rock, AR United States Long Island, NY United States Los Angeles Inland Empire, CA United States Los Angeles, CA United States Louisville, KY United States Memphis, TN United States Miami, FL United States Minneapolis/St. Paul, MN United States Nashville, TN United States New Jersey Central United States New Jersey Northern United States Oakland, CA United States Omaha, NE United States Orange County, CA United States Orlando, FL United States Philadelphia, PA United States Phoenix, AZ United States Pittsburgh, PA United States Pleasanton/Walnut Creek, CA United States Portland, OR United States Raleigh, NC United States Reno, NV United States Sacramento, CA United States San Diego, CA United States San Francisco Peninsula, CA United States San Jose/Silicon Valley, CA United States Savannah, GA United States Seattle/Puget Sound, WA United States St. Louis, MO United States Stockton/San Joaquin County, CA United States Tampa Bay, FL United States Washington, DC United States West Palm Beach, FL United States Colliers International p. 7
8 512 offices in 61 countries on 6 continents United States: 125 Canada: 38 Latin America: 18 Asia Pacific: 214 EMEA: 117 $1.5 billion in annual revenue 979 million square feet under management Over 12,500 professionals Continued from page 1 space, a tight lending atmosphere has meant that the pipeline of new supply is still constrained in Sydney and Perth. This situation will help to support growing prime rents in those markets. London and Moscow Rents Grow In the U.K., where preliminary figures show a GDP contraction in Q4 2011, key logistical market London (Heathrow) actually saw a rise in prime rents in the Glossary Bulk Space 10,000 SM/100,000 SF or more with up to 10 percent office space, the balance being general industrial/logistics/distribution space with 6 to 12 metre/18 to 36 SF ceiling heights. All loading is dockheight. Built in 1990 or later and standing in a prime industrial location. Warehouse Space 2,000 SM/20,000 SF or more with up to 15 percent office space, the balance being general industrial/logistics/ distribution space with 6 to 10 metre/18 to 30 SF ceiling heights. All loading is dockheight. Built in 1990 or later and standing in a prime industrial location. second half of 2011, with the space appropriate to occupiers needs in short supply. In Moscow, the second half of the year saw prime rental growth of 2%; however, with such strong growth in the first half, annual rental growth amounted to 19%. Further increases are expected in Land Value Land values are based on prime logistics/ industrial locations and are based on approximately 3 acres/1.2 hectares/12,140 square metre/130,680 SF of serviced land. Prime Yield/Cap Rate The yield for a prime logistics/ industrial property. Rent figures should be estimates of achievable open market rents for each location. SF = Square Feet SM = Square Metres COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL 601 Union Street, Suite 4800 Seattle, WA USA tel Copyright 2012 Colliers International. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable. While every reasonable effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot guarantee it. No responsibility is assumed for any inaccuracies. Readers are encouraged to consult their professional advisors prior to acting on any of the material contained in this report. Global research contacts Americas James Cook USA james.cook@colliers.com Jeff Simonson USA jeff.simonson@colliers.com ASIA PACIFIC Simon Lo Asia simon.lo@colliers.com Amit Oberoi India amit.oberoi@colliers.com Nerida Conisbee Australia/New Zealand nerida.conisbee@colliers.com Yumiko Yasuda Japan yumiko.yasuda@colliers.com Mark Charlton United Kingdom mark.charlton@colliers.com Damian Harrington Central and Eastern Europe damian.harrington@colliers.com Renaud Roger France rroger@colliers-ufgpm.fr Andreas Trumpp Germany andreas.trumpp@colliers.com Europe, Middle East and Africa Thomas Grounds EMEA thomas.grounds@colliers.com Accelerating success.
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