Hydrological Analysis for Simanggo-2 HEPP

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1 Part 15 Hydrological Analysis for Simanggo-2 HEPP

2 PART 15 HYDROLOGICAL ANALYSIS FOR SIMANGGO-2 HEPP 15.1 METEOROLOGY AND HYDROLOGY Meteorological Records and Hydrological Records are collected from Meteorological Climatological and Geophysical Agency (Badan Meteorologi Klimatologi dan Geofisika: BMKG), Research Institute for Water Resources Development under Ministry of Public Works (Pusat Penelitian dan Pengembangan Sumber Daya Air: PUSAIR, formerly DPMA), and engineering reports on various hydropower development projects. The location map of the stations is shown in Figure 1. The availability of data is summarized in Figure 2. The catchment area of Simanggo-2 HEPP intake weir site is shown in Figure METEOROLOGICAL DATA Climatic data such as air temperature, relative humidity, wind velocity, sunshine duration have been observed at the Sibolga station, which is collected from BMKG. Pan-evaporation has been observed at the Parapat and the Gube Hutaraja stations. Pan-evaporation data is collected from Asahan -3 HEPP report. The variation of principal climatic data at the Sibolga station, the Parapat station and the Gube Hutaraja station is shown in Figure 4. (1) Air Temperature Table 1 shows the monthly mean air temperature at the Sibolga station. The average monthly mean air temperature at the Sibolga station in the period of 1984 to 22 is summarized below. Station Name: Sibolga ( ) Unit: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Mean As seen, the mean annual air temperature at the Sibolga station is 25.5ºC on an average. There is a slight seasonal change ranging 23.9ºC in February to 26.7ºC in May. (2) Relative Humidity Table 2 shows the monthly mean relative humidity at the Sibolga station. The average monthly relative humidity at the Sibolga station in the period of 1984 to 22 is summarized below. JICA Project for the Master Plan Study of 15-1 August, 211

3 Station Name: Sibolga ( ) Unit: % Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Mean As well as the monthly pattern of mean air temperature, there is no significant change of relative humidity throughout the year. The annual mean relative humidity in the period of at the Sibolga station is 83.5 % and there is a slight seasonal change ranging from 76.% in February to 88.1 % in December. (3) Sunshine Duration Table 3 shows the monthly mean sunshine duration at the Sibolga station. The average monthly mean sunshine duration at the Sibolga station in the period of 1984 to 22 is summarized below. Station Name: Sibolga ( ) Unit: % Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Mean As seen, the mean annual sunshine duration at the Sibolga station is 55. % on an average. The maximum duration of 62.4% and the minimum one of 44.8% occur in May and October, respectively. Sunshine duration generally decreases with an increase of rainfall. The highest sunshine duration therefore occurs in May in the dry season. (4) Wind Velocity Table 4 shows the monthly mean wind velocity at the Sibolga station. The average monthly mean wind velocity at the Sibolga station in the period of 1984 to 22 is summarized below. Station Name: Sibolga ( ) Unit: m/sec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Mean Mean annual wind velocity at the Sibolga station is 5.3 m/sec ranging from 4.8m/sec in May and 6.5m/sec in March. (5) Evaporation Pan evaporation records are available at the Parapat station and the Gube Hutaraja station. The pan evaporation records at both stations are summarized on monthly basis as shown in Table 5. The average monthly mean pan evaporation at the Parapat and the Gube Hutaraja stations is summarized below. JICA Project for the Master Plan Study of 15-2 August, 211

4 Station Name: Parapat ( ) Unit: mm/day Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Mean Station Name: Gabe Hutaraja ( ) Unit: mm/day Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Mean The ruling factors of pan evaporation may be air temperature and relative humidity, namely evaporation rate varies season to season following to mainly the variation of humidity. As seen in the above table, the seasonal variation of pan evaporation is generally small throughout the year, because there is no great seasonal variation of relative humidity RAINFALL DATA There are 12 rainfall gauging stations in and around the Simanggo river basin. The location map of these stations is shown in Figure 1. Also the data availability at these stations is shown in Figure 2. The rainfall gauging stations are operated and maintained under BMKG. Daily rainfall records are collected from BMKG in this study. PLN formerly had own hydrological observation network (PLN-LMK Observation Network). Currently most of these stations have broken down, after regional office of PLN took responsibility for maintenance which the central office of PLN had taken. (1) Monthly Rainfall Data The monthly mean rainfall records are collected at 12 stations as presented in Table 6 to Table 17. The monthly distributions of mean annual rainfall are illustrated below. Rainfall(mm) Segala(Sigala-gala): 3,816 mm ( ) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec JICA Project for the Master Plan Study of 15-3 August, 211

5 Rainfall(mm) Tarutung: 1,962 mm ( ) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Rainfall(mm) Hutaraya(Gabe Hutaraja): 2,18 mm ( ) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Rainfall(mm) Barus(Baros): 3,475 mm ( ) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Rainfall(mm) Siborong-borong: 2,768 mm ( ) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec JICA Project for the Master Plan Study of 15-4 August, 211

6 Rainfall(mm) Dolok Sanggul: 2,32 mm ( ) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Rainfall(mm) Gugur Balige(Pintu-Pintu): 1,975 mm ( ) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Rainfall(mm) Rainfall(mm) Baligi-1(Baligi): 2,432 mm ( ) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Paguruan: 1,865 mm ( ) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec JICA Project for the Master Plan Study of 15-5 August, 211

7 Rainfall(mm) Rainfall(mm) Rainfall(mm) Salak: 3,89 mm ( ) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Sidikalang: 2,387 mm ( ) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Tiga Lingga: 1,571 mm ( ) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec As seen above, the annual mean rainfall at these stations ranges from 1,5 mm to 3,8 mm per year. It might be said that there exists some seasonality in the Simanggo River basin. (2) Hourly Rainfall Records Hourly rainfall records are available at the Sibolga station, which is located at 7km south of Lake Toba. Hourly rainfall records are collected to determine the rainfall pattern for the flood analysis. Hourly rainfall records of more than mm in a day were selected for estimating the characteristics of relatively heavy rainfall. The list of selected hourly rainfall records are enumerated in Table 18. JICA Project for the Master Plan Study of 15-6 August, 211

8 RUNOFF RECORDS (1) Water Level Gauging Station(AWLR Station) No water level gauging station exists in the Simanggo River. Around the Simanggo River basin there are three stations, the Pasar Sironggit station, the Dolog Sanggul station and the Marade station. AWLR stations are opereated by the River Bureau under the Ministry of Public Works (Balai Wilayah Sungai: BWS). The station around the Simanggo River is under the jurisdiction of BWS Sumatera Ⅱ in Medan. The organization chart is shown in Figure 5. BWS collects water level and discharge measurement records in twice a year, and sends those to PUSAIR Bandung. Data processing is carried out by PUSAIR presently. BWS is planning to carry out data processing in no distant future. (2) Runoff Records The daily runoff records are collected from PUSAIR in Bandung. The monthly mean runoff deriving from the daily runoff records is presented in Table 19 to Table 21. The daily hydrographs are illustrated in Figure 6 to Figure 19. The average monthly mean runoff is summarized below. Station Name: Pasar Sironggit ( ) Unit: m3/s Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Mean Station Name: Dolog Sanggul ( ) Unit: m3/s Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Mean Station Name: Marade ( ) Unit: m3/s Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Mean As seen, the annual mean runoff is 13.9m 3 /s at the Pasar Sironggit station, and 4.3m 3 /s at the Dolog Sanggul station, and 7.m 3 /s at the Marade station. The catchment area and the annual runoff are tabulated as follows. The annual runoff depth is computed by dividing the annual accumulated runoff volume by the catchment area of the gauging station. Catchment Area (km 2 ) Annual Average Runoff (m 3 /s) Annual Average Runoff Depth (mm) Pasar Sironggit Dolog Sanggul Marade JICA Project for the Master Plan Study of 15-7 August, 211

9 LOWFLOW ANALYSIS (1) General Approach The continuous long-term runoff data for a time period of more than 2 years at the proposed intake weir site is normally required for evaluating an optimum development scale of the project through power output computation. Further, it is highly expected that the runoff data should be of high accuracy because measurement on economic viability of project is highly dependent on the reliability of available runoff records. On the Simanggo-2 HEPP, daily runoff records are required because the type of hydropower development scheme is runoff type. As described in the previous chapter, no water level gauging station exists in the Simanggo River. Around the Simanggo River basin there is the Pasar Sironggit station. The daily runoff records are available from 1982 to 28 except in 1988 to 199, 1999, 2, and 22 to 26. Furthermore, the remaining observation years still include data-missing periods. Therefore, it is necessary to supplement the runoff records at the Pasar Sironggit station by infilling of missing data. On the other hand, the daily basin mean rainfall at the Pasar Sironggit station can be estimated for the period between 1977 and Thus the runoff data at the Pasar Sironggit station can be supplemented and expanded for the period of 1977 to 1998 by constructing a rainfall-runoff simulation model. Along this line, the Tank Model Method is applied in this study as a rainfall-runoff model, the model parameters of which are calibrated by using rainfall and runoff records available in the period of 1991 to Firstly, the reliability of the available runoff records at the Pasar Sironggit station for using calibration is evaluated by means of runoff coefficient and annual rainfall loss. Then lowflow analysis by the Tank Model Method is carried out to simulate 22-year long-term daily runoff data at the Pasar Sironggit station. Finally the 22-year daily runoff data at the Simanggo-2 intake weir site is estimated. The outline of lowflow analysis is described below. JICA Project for the Master Plan Study of 15-8 August, 211

10 Test of Consintency of Rainfall Records Daily Runoff Records at Pasar Sironggit Estimation of Daily Basin Mean Rainfall Scrutiny of Runoff Records : ( Reliability Check ) - Runoff Coefficient - Annual Rainfall Loss - Consistency of Records ( ) Establishment of Rainfall - Runoff Simulation Model ( Tank Model Method ) Calibration of Model Parameters ( ) Supplementation & Expansion of Runoff Records by Tank Model ( ) Estimation of Long-Term Runoff at Simanggo-2 Intake Weir Site ( ) (2) Estimation of Missing Data The observed rainfall records at all of the selected stations include several data interruptions. For the purpose of supplementing the missing rainfall records, the simple regression analysis on the monthly basis are carried out among the selected stations. Missing monthly data at a station is supplemented by data at another station with linear regression equation which has the highest correlation coefficient. The number of data and correlation coefficient and slopes of linear regression equation is tabulated in Table 22. Missing daily data is also supplemented by daily data at another station with monthly linear regression equation. (3) Test of Consistency of Rainfall Records The method of testing rainfall records for consistency is the double-mass curve technique. JICA Project for the Master Plan Study of 15-9 August, 211

11 Double-mass analysis tests the consistency of the record at a station by comparing its accumulated annual or seasonal precipitation with the concurrent accumulated values of mean precipitation for a group of surrounding stations. The corrected rainfall is determined by the following equation. P CX = PX ( M C / M a ) where, P CX : Corrected rainfall at any time period at station x (mm) P X : Original recorded rainfall at any time period at station x (mm) M C : Corrected slope of the double-mass curve M : Original slope of the double-mass curve a The double-mass curves are presented in Figure 2. As seen, the rainfall records at the Siborong-borong station and the Gugur Balige station have different characteristic, then these stations are eliminated for following analysis. (4) Basin Mean Rainfall The basin mean rainfall at the Pasar Sironggit station is estimated by applying the arithmetic mean method. The records of selected rainfall gauging stations are divided in two periods considering data availability. Case1 (1977 to 199): Tarutung, Dolok Sanggul Case2 (1987 to 1998): Hutaraya, Dolok Sanggul The estimated monthly basin mean rainfall at the Pasar Sironggit AWLR station is presented in Table 23. The estimated annual basin mean rainfall is 1,82mm. (5) Evaluation of Runoff Records at the Pasar Sironggit AWLR station No water level gauging station exists in the Simanggo River. Around the Simanggo River basin there are three stations, the Pasar Sironggit station, the Dolog Sanggul station and the Marade station. The Pasar Sironggit AWLR station is selected as a key stream gauge station for predicting the long-term runoff at the proposed Simanggo-2 intake weir site, because the catchment area is 35.6km 2 as large as the Simanggo River basin. The evaluated period of runoff records is determined to be 3 years from 1991 to 1993, because both rainfall and runoff records are available in this period for calibration of Tank Model parameters. 1) Relationship between Annual Basin Mean Rainfall and Annual Runoff Depth at the Pasar Sironggit AWLR Station The annual basin mean rainfall at the Pasar Sironggit AWLR station is estimated for the JICA Project for the Master Plan Study of 15-1 August, 211

12 period of 1985 to 1987, and 1991 to On the other hand, the annual runoff depth at the Pasar Sironggit station is computed by dividing the annual runoff volume by its drainage area of 35.6km 2 for the same period as above. The established relationship between annual basin mean rainfall and annual runoff depth at the Pasar Sironggit station is as follows. Besides, the relationship is plotted in Figure 21. Year Annual Rainfall (mm) Annual Runoff Depth (mm) Annual Rainfall Loss (mm) Runoff Coefficient , , , , , ,714 1, ,873 1, ,132 1, ,438 1,587 (15) ,869 1, ,7 1,726 (26) ,25 1,691 (441) ,592 1, Average 1,86 1, The difference between the annual basin mean rainfall and annual runoff depth is the so-called evapotranspiration loss or annual rainfall loss. The annual rainfall loss is analyzed for major rivers in Sumatra in HPPS2 as presented in Table 24 and illustrated in Figure 22. It is therefore found that the annual rainfall loss normally falls in a range of 7 to 1,5 mm a year which varies according to altitude, natural vegetation, seasonal distribution of rainfall, etc. As seen above, the rainfall loss at the Pasar Sironggit station varies from -4mm to 1,mm. From the hydrological point of view, the rainfall loss usually varies in a small range. Generally the rainfall loss cannot be smaller than zero, and then the runoff data from 1994 to 1998 is eliminated. 2) Double Mass Curve Analysis Based on the adjusted annual basin mean rainfall and annual runoff depth at the Pasar Sironggit station, the double mass curve is constructed as given below. JICA Project for the Master Plan Study of August, 211

13 1, Accumulated Runoff Depth (mm) 8, 6, 4, 2, , 4, 6, 8, 1, 12, 14, Accumulated Basin Mean Rainfall (mm) As shown above, the annual basin mean rainfall and annual runoff depth are plotted on a straight line, satisfactorily showing the hydrological consistency ready for Tank model analysis to be discussed in the next section. (6) Tank Model 1) Concept of Tank Model Method The Tank Model simulation method is widely applied for estimating river runoff from rainfall data. The Tank Model Method has been successfully applied for low-flow analysis in various water resources development projects in Indonesia. Basic concept of Tank Model The basic idea of Tank Model is very simple. Consider a tank having a hole at the bottom and another hole at the side as illustrated below. JICA Project for the Master Plan Study of August, 211

14 When the tank is filled with water, the water will be released from the holes as shown in the above. In the tank model simulation, it is considered that the water released from the side hole corresponds to runoff from a stream, and the water from the bottom hole goes into the ground water zone. The depth of water released from a hole is given by the following tank equation. Q = α H where, Q : Runoff depth of released water (mm) α : Coefficient of hole H : Water depth above the hole (mm) Applied Tank Model For the purpose of natural runoff simulation, four by four (4 4) tanks combined in series are used as shown in Figure 23. The top tank receives the rainfall as inflow to the tank, while the tanks below get the supply from the bottom holes of the tank directory above. The aggregated outflow from all the side holes of the tanks constitutes the inflow in the river course. To effectively trace dry conditions in the basin, several modifications are made on the basic model. The model is firstly facilitated with a structure to simulate the moisture content in the top tank. This sub-model is composed of two moisture-bearing zones, which contain moisture up to the capacities of saturation. Between the two zones, the water transfers as expressed below. T 2 = TC( XP / PS XS / SS) where, T 2 : Transfer of moisture between primary and secondary zones (if positive, transfer occurs from primary to secondary, and vice versa) TC : Constant XP : Primary soil moisture depth PS : Primary soil moisture capacity XS : Secondary soil moisture depth SS : Secondary soil moisture capacity When the primary soil moisture is not saturated and there is free water in lower tanks, the water goes up by capillary action so as to fill the primary soil moisture with the transfer speed T1 as given below. T1 = TB(1 XP / PS) JICA Project for the Master Plan Study of August, 211

15 where, T 1 : Transfer of the water from lower tank with capillary action TB : Constant There are many tank model parameters such as hole coefficients of each tank, and height of side holes of each tank. These parameters cannot be determined mathematically. Therefore, these parameters are subject to determination through trial-and-error calculations comparing the calculated runoff with the actually observed runoff. 2) Input Data for Calibration Model The applied model and simulation condition for calibration are given below. The period for calibration set from 1991 to 1993 because there are continuously rainfall records and runoff records and the rainfall loss during the period is relatively stable. Number of Tanks 4 4 Calculation Time Interval 1 day Calculation Period 1991 to 1993 Observed Runoff at Pasar Sironggit 1991 to 1993 Basin Mean Rainfall at Pasar Sironggit 1991 to 1993 Monthly Average Evaporation at Gabe Hutaraja 1996 to 25 The pan evaporation record at the Gabe Hutaraja station is applied. The pan coefficient of.8 is applied for estimating evapotranspiration in the basin. The average monthly pan evaporation is given below. Station Name: Gabe Hutaraja ( ) Unit: mm/day Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Mean ) Calibration Results Through several trial-and-error calculations, the best coincidence between the simulated and observed runoff at the Pasar Sironggit station is obtained under the tank parameters as follows. Hole Coefficient Height of Hole (mm) β α1 α2 H1 H2 Tank Tank Tank Tank The rainfall-runoff relationship of the simulated runoff is examined compared with the observed runoff as summarized below. JICA Project for the Master Plan Study of August, 211

16 Year Annual Rainfall (mm) Annual Runoff Depth (mm) Annual Rainfall Loss (mm) Runoff Coefficient Observed Simulated Observed Simulated Observed Simulated ,711 1,929 1, ,873 1,21 1, ,131 1,424 1, Average 2,238 1,518 1, As seen above, the average runoff coefficient and rainfall loss of the simulated runoff are derived to be.67 and 739mm, respectively. On the other hand, hydrological indices of the observed runoff at the Pasar Sironggit station are.67 and 721mm. These derived hydrological indices are judged to be in the hydrologically reasonable range. (6) Prediction of the Long-Term Runoff at the Pasar Sironggit station The tank model with the calibrated parameters in the above is applied to generate the daily runoff at the Pasar Sironggit station dating back to the period of 1977 to 1998 by use of the estimated daily basin mean rainfall. The simulation results are summarized in Figure 24. The rainfall-runoff relationship of simulated runoff is summarized below. Year Annual Rainfall (mm) Annual Runoff Depth (mm) Annual Rainfall Loss (mm) Runoff Coefficient Observed Simulated Observed Simulated Observed Simulated , ,248-1, ,355-1, ,925-1, , , , ,431-1, , ,233 1, , , ,251 1, ,638-1, , ,22-1, ,711 1,929 1, ,873 1,22 1, ,131 1,425 1, , ,869-1, , , , Average 1,798-1, As seen in the table, the average runoff coefficient and rainfall loss of the simulated runoff are derived to be.62 and 661mm, respectively. These hydrological indices are judged to be within the hydrological reasonable range. JICA Project for the Master Plan Study of August, 211

17 The daily runoff data for the flow duration curve is consisted of 6-year observed daily runoff in 1985 to 1987, and 1991 to 1993, and of 16-year simulated daily runoff in remaining period from 1977 to The flow duration curve for the 22-year runoff is drawn by arranging the discharges in descending order and assigning probabilities to each discharge. The flow duration curve of the observed and simulated runoff is shown in Figure 25. (8) Long-Term Runoff at the Simanggo-2 Intake Weir Site The long-term daily runoff at Simanggo-2 intake weir site for 22 years in the period of 1977 to 1998 is estimated from the predicted long-term daily runoff at the Pasar Sironggit station by using the following equation. The annual basin rainfall at Simanggo-2 basin is estimated from the isohyetal map, illustrated in Figure 26. The flow duration curve as shown in Figure 27, is drawn by arranging the discharges in descending order and assigning probabilities to each discharge. A D Q D = QW AW R R D W where, Q D : Runoff at Simanggo-2 intake weir site (m 3 /sec) Q W : Runoff at Pasar Sironggit AWLR station (m 3 /sec) A D : Catchment area at Simanggo -2 intake weir site (=478.3km 2 ) A W : Catchment area at Pasar Sironggit AWLR station (=35.6km 2 ) R : Annual basin mean rainfall at Simanggo-2 intake weir site D (=2,79mm) R : Annual basin mean rainfall at Pasar Sironggit AWLR station W (=1,82mm) (9) Water Level Observation and Discharge Measurement The field investigation of 3 month water level observation and 3 times discharge measurement was carried out from 21 September 28 th to 21 December 31 st by the sub-contractor. Location of the observation is at 2km upstream of the Simanggo-2 intake weir site (St.1). The location map of observation is shown in Figure 28. H-Q rating curve is established on the basis of observed water level and discharge, and hydrograph is established on the basis of observed water level and H-Q rating curve. Hydrograph is illustrated in Figure 29 and H-Q plot is shown in Figure 3. Consequently, the average water level is.58m and the average runoff is m 3 /s calculated with H-Q rating curve. The Equation of H-Q rating curve is given below. Q = 35.1 ( H +.29) 2 where, Q : Runoff (m 3 /sec) H : Water level (m) JICA Project for the Master Plan Study of August, 211

18 Runoff at the Simanggo-2 intake weir site is estimated using the following equation. Q D = QW ( AD / AW ) where, Q D : Runoff at Simanggo-2 intake weir site (m 3 /sec) Q : Runoff at the water level gauge (m 3 /sec) W A D : Catchment area at Simanggo-2 intake weir site (=478.3km 2 ) A : Catchment area at water level gauge (=29.6km 2 ) W The estimated average runoff at the Simanggo-2 intake weir site is 43.93m 3 /s. The observed average runoff is about 1% of probability on the duration curve shown in Figure 27. (1) PLTM Palilitan There is an existing intake weir of PLTM Palilitan at upstream of Simanggo-2 intake weir site. In the project report of PLTM Palilitan, the average runoff is estimated to be m 3 /s with low-flow analysis from 1984 to Runoff at the Simanggo-2 intake weir site can be estimated with the following equation. Q D = QW ( AD / AW ) where, Q D : Runoff at Simanggo-2 intake weir site (m 3 /sec) Q : Runoff at PLTM Palilitan intake weir site (m 3 /sec) W A D : Catchment area at Simanggo-2 intake weir site (=478.3km 2 ) A : Catchment area at PLTM Palilitan intake weir site (=436km 2 ) W Consequently, the average runoff at the Simanggo-2 intake weir site is 25.8m 3 /s. The catchment area of PLTM Palilitan is measured in HPPS2 as Simanggo-1 HEPP FLOOD ANALYSIS (1) General Approach Flood analysis is carried out to estimate the probable floods with various return periods as well as the probable maximum flood (PMF) at the Simanggo-2 intake weir site which are basically required for design of spillway and diversion facilities, and determination of dam height. For estimating the probable floods, the unit hydrograph method is applied, which synthesizes the various probable runoff hydrographs from the probable basin mean rainfalls based on the relationship between unit of basin mean rainfall and its runoff, that is the so-called unit hydrograph. It is generally agreed that the unit hydrograph method is applied for catchment JICA Project for the Master Plan Study of August, 211

19 areas less than 3, km 2. In this study, the Soil Conservation Service (SCS) unit hydrograph, which is empirically developed in USA Department of the Interior is used, because no hourly flood hydrograph is available in the Simanggo River basin to construct the unit hydrograph. The general approach of flood analysis is outlined below. (2) Rainfall Analysis 1) Depth-Area-Duration (DAD) Analysis DAD analysis is carried out to examine the following relationships. Relationship between rainfall depth and duration (DD Analysis) Relationship between rainfall depth and area (DA Analysis) a) Depth-Duration (DD) Analysis Generally, heavy rainfall occurs intensively in a short duration and sporadically in a limited area. The hourly rainfall records around the Simanggo River basin are shown in Table 18. The design rainfall curve is derived from collected 31 hourly rainfall curves. The accumulated hourly rainfall curves and the design rainfall curve are presented in Figure 32. JICA Project for the Master Plan Study of August, 211

20 b) Depth-Area (DA) Analysis Generally, heavy rainfall occurs intensively in a short duration and sporadically in a limited area. Therefore the average depth of storm rainfall (basin mean rainfall) is likely to be smaller than the point depth of storm rainfall. In general, relation between point rainfall depth and average area is expressed by an exponential equation given by the following equation. P b n = P exp[ ka ] where, P b : Average rainfall depth over an area A (mm) P : Maximum point rainfall at the storm center (mm) A : Area in question (km 2 ) k, n : Constants for a given area The above equation is the so-called Horton s Equation. Constants k and n usually vary according to the given rainfall duration such as 1 hour, 6 hours, 12 hours, 1 day, etc. These constants are to be obtained through rainfall analysis based on the isohyetal maps of various major rain storms occurred in the river basin in question. However, the exact determination of P is practically impossible, because it is very unlikely that the rain storm center coincides with a rainfall gauging station. To estimate the basin mean rainfall from the point rainfall, the area reduction factor showing the ratio of basin mean rainfall to point rainfall is introduced as expressed below. P b = f a P where, P b : Basin mean rainfall (mm) P : Point rainfall (mm) f : Area reduction factor a If the Horton s equation is applied, the area reduction factor under the given rainfall duration is given by the following equation. f a = exp[ ka n ] However the available rain storm records in the Simanggo River basin are insufficient for reliable determination of the area reduction factor. The preliminary estimation of the design area reduction factor is carried out based on the following three approaches. Firstly, the area reduction factor is estimated as.63 under the catchment area of km 2 for the Simanggo-2 intake weir site by applying the Horton s equation assuming that constants of k and n are.1 and.25, respectively. These constants have been widely and JICA Project for the Master Plan Study of August, 211

21 empirically applied in tropical rain forest area. A (km2) k.1 n.25 fa.63 Secondly, the estimated design area reduction factors are examined in several other projects. The following design area reduction factors are based on the rainfall analysis using the observed rain storm records. Project Name Catchment Area Area Reduction (km2) Factor Besai HEPP (D/D in 199) Malea HEPP (F/S in 1984) 1, Tampur-1 HEPP (F/S in 1984) 2,.4 Musi HEPP (F/S in 1984) Cibuni-3 (F/S in 1984) 1,.41 Masang-3 HEPP (Pre F/S in 1999) Thirdly, the relation between the daily point rainfall and the daily basin mean rainfall around the Simanggo River basin is analyzed to estimate the area reduction factor of the river basin. The selected rainfall stations are the Hutaraya, the Gugur Balige, the Balige-1, and the Paguruan stations. A basin mean rainfall derives from an arithmetic average of an annual maximum daily rainfall of a target station and daily rainfalls of other stations at the same day. The average of ratios between basin mean rainfalls and annual maximum daily rainfalls of target stations is decided as the area reduction factor. The list of rainfall is presented in Table 25 and plotted on Figure 33. Usually, it is considered that the rainfall intensity in hyetal areas increases with the depth of point rainfall. However, the area reduction factor showing the ratio of area rainfall to the maximum point rainfall varies from.3 to.8 for the area rainfall amount, and the average is.52. Further, the area reduction factor does not always increase with the enlargement of the point rainfall. On the other hand, the design area reduction factors examined in several hydropower projects varies from.4 to.5. In due consideration above, the design area reduction factor is conservatively determined to be.5. 2) Probable Point Rainfall Out of the available rainfall records around the Simanggo River basin, the annual maximum 1-day rainfall records are available at the Hutaraya rainfall gauging station, the Gugur Balige, and the Paguruan as presented in Table 26. As seen in this table, the rainfall records at the Paguruan station is 2 recording periods, which is the greatest numbers among three stations. Then the Paguruan station is selected for probable point rainfall analysis. JICA Project for the Master Plan Study of 15-2 August, 211

22 The probable point rainfalls at the station with several return periods are estimated through frequency analysis using the Gumbel and Log Normal distributions as summarized below. The estimated frequency curves of probable daily rainfall at these stations are also presented in Figure 34. Return Period Probable Point Rainfall (mm) (years) Gumbel LN Average The probable point rainfall is estimated as the average of the probable rainfalls by the Gumbel and Log Normal distributions, because the estimated frequency curves by the Gumbel and Log Normal distributions have similar shapes. 3) Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) Generally three (3) approaches are used for estimating the probable maximum precipitation (PMP) as follows. Meteorological (theoretical) approach in consideration of the upper physical limit of moisture source Statistical approach which is empirically developed by Dr. Hershfield from the rainfall records in the United States of America Historical approach by examining the historical maximum one over occurred in the area of interest The available basic climatological data such as dew point, humidity, wind velocity in Simanggo-2 catchment area for the first meteorological approach are insufficient for the time being. Further, no historical rain storm records are also so far available. Therefore, PMP is estimated by the simple statistical Hershfield method using a series of the annual maximum daily rainfall records. This method is widely applied in the basin where rainfall records are available but other basic climatological records are hardly obtainable. The Hershfield s equation is expressed as follows. JICA Project for the Master Plan Study of August, 211

23 X = X + K S m n m n where, X m : Extreme value of 24-hour rainfall (PMP) (mm) X : Adjusted mean annual maximum rainfall (mm) n K : Statistical coefficient n m S : Adjusted standard deviation of a series of annual maximum rainfall As seen in the above equation, PMP in question is assumed to be given as the adjusted mean annual maximum rainfall in question plus the K m times the standard deviation of a series of annual maximum rainfall in question. The PMP is estimated by applying a series of annual maximum rainfall in the Simanggo river basin. The calculation process is as follows. Computation of Statistical Parameters The mean annual maximum rainfall (X n ) and its standard deviation (S n ) are calculated to be 72.5 mm and 23.7 mm, respectively. Concurrently with the above, X n-m and S n-m are estimated at 7.3 mm and 22.1 mm, which are computed after excluding the maximum rainfall in the series of rainfall data. These statistical parameters are used for several adjustment necessary computing X n and S n. Adjustment of X n and S n for Maximum Observed Event The adjustment factors of X n (f x1 ) and S n (f s1 ) for the maximum observed rainfall shall be obtained from the Hershfield s adjustment curves as shown in Figure 35 and Figure 36. Applying the values of X n, X n-m, S n and S n-m, adjustment factors are obtained 11 % for f x1 and 12 % for f s1, respectively. Adjustment of X n and S n for Sample Size The adjustment factors of X n (f x2 ) and S n (f s2 ) for the length of record shall be obtained from the adjustment curves as presented in Figure 37. The obtained factors of f x2 and f s2 are 12 % and 18 %, respectively. Statistical Coefficient K m The statistical coefficient K m shall be obtained from the empirical K m curves as presented in Figure 38. Applying the mean annual maximum rainfall at the Paguruan station (X n ) is 72.5 mm, the K m value is obtained to be Adjustment for Fixed Observational Time Intervals JICA Project for the Master Plan Study of August, 211

24 Rainfall observation has been carried out on the daily basis at the Paguruan station. Since the recorded daily rainfall is computed based on the single fixed observation time interval (say 8 a.m to 8 p.m), the PMP value yielded by the statistical procedure should be increased multiplying by the adjustment factor (f o ). The adjustment factor curve is presented by Dr. Hersfield as shown in Figure 39. Applying that the number of observation units is equal to 1, the f o value is obtained to be 113 %. Computation of PMP at the Paguruan Station The adjustment mean annual maximum rainfall (X n ) is finally given as follows. X X n = f X 1 f X 2 n In addition, the adjusted standard deviation of a series of annual maximum rainfall (S n ) is given as follows. S S n = f S1 fs 2 n The unadjusted point PMP (X m ) is computed as follows. X = X + K S m n m n Finally, the point PMP is adjusted using the adjustment factor f o as follows. PMP = f O X m The computation process of the point PMP is summarized in Table 27. As seen, the point PMP at the Paguruan station is estimated to be mm. 4) Basin Mean Rainfall Applying the design area reduction factor of.5, the probable basin mean 1-day rainfalls with various return periods as well as PMP at the Simanggo-2 intake weir site are estimated as follows. JICA Project for the Master Plan Study of August, 211

25 Return Period (years) Probable Rainfall (mm) PMP (3) Hydrograph Analysis 1) Unit hydrograph Since no flood hydrographs are available for the present flood analysis, the unit hydrograph is developed by means of the SCS (Soil Conservation Service) synthetic hydrograph method. The SCS method was developed by analyzing a large number of basins with varying geographic locations. Unit hydrographs were evaluated for a large number of actual watersheds and then made dimensionless by dividing all discharge ordinates by the peak discharge and the time ordinates by the time to peak. An average of these dimensionless unit hydrographs was computed. a) SCS Unit Hydrograph The SCS unit hydrograph is derived from the flood concentration time and unit basin rainfall. The unit hydrograph is constructed for a unit rainfall of 1 mm. The peak discharge of the unit hydrograph is calculated as follows. q =.28AQ / p t p where, q p : Peak discharge (m 3 /sec) A : Basin area (km 2 ) Q : Total volume of the unit hydrograph (=1mm) t p : Time to peak (hours) SCS has determined that the time to peak ( t p ) and rainfall duration ( D ) are related to time of concentration ( t c ) as follows. t = p 2 tc / 3 D =. 133t c JICA Project for the Master Plan Study of August, 211

26 b) Flood Concentration Time The flood concentration time is defined as the time of travel from the most remote point in the catchment to the forecast point. The flood concentration time can be estimated by the formula of Kirpich as follows. t c = 3.97 L S where, t c : Flood concentration time (min) L : Maximum length of travel of water (km) S : Average slope (=H/L, where H is the difference in elevation between the remotest point in the basin and the outlet) c) SCS Unit Hydrograph Calculation With a maximum length of travel ( L ) of 33km, the concentration time ( t c ) was found to be about 4.7 hours. With a catchment area ( A ) of km 2, the peak flow ( q ) is found to be 31.8 m 3 /sec/mm. The average slope of the Simaggo River is illustrated in Figure 4. The SCS unit hydrograph for the Simaggo River basin is shown in Figure 41. A km 2 Q 1 mm L km t c 4.7 hours q p 31.8 m 3 /s/mm 3.1 hours t p p 2) Probable Flood Hydrograph at Simanggo-2 Intake Weir Site The probable flood hydrographs including PMF at the Simanggo-2 intake weir site are derived by convolution of the probable basin mean rainfall, PMP with the design rainfall hyetograph and the unit hydrograph. The base flow is determined to be 24 (m 3 /s) from the average rainy-season discharge records at the Pasar Sironggit AWLR station, and the rainfall loss is assumed to be 36 %. The daily hydrograph is shown in Figure 42, and the rainfall loss is presented in Table 29. The computed probable flood hydrographs as well as PMF are presented in Table 3 and shown in Figure 43. The probable design flood discharges with various return periods together with PMF are collected from various hydropower projects in Sumatra as presented in Table 31. JICA Project for the Master Plan Study of August, 211

27 3) Creager s Coefficient for Probable Floods at Simanggo-2 Intake Weir Site Creager s coefficient for probable flood is computed by the following equations. Q = ( ) C (.3861 A) p a a =.894(.3861 A).48 where, Q p : Peak discharge of probable flood (m 3 /sec) C : Creager s coefficient A : Catchment area (km 2 ) The Creager s coefficients corresponding to the various return periods and PMF for the Simanggo-2 HEPP are enumerated in the table below. T Q C (year) (m3/s) PMF Figure 44 and Figure 45 shows the relationship between probable flood peak discharges with return periods of 2, 2,, 2 years as well as PMF and catchment area for the Simanggo-2 HEPP and other water resources development projects in the whole Sumatra. The Creager s curves are illustrated using the Creager s coefficients of the Simanggo-2 intake weir site calculated in above. The probable floods at the Simanggo-2 HEPP are well plotted in reasonable range of design floods in Sumatra. 4) Probable Floods at the Simaggo-2 Regulating Pond Site The time of concentration ( t c ) at the Simanggo-2 Regulating Pond is calculated as.32 hour with the same method as the Simanggo-2 intake weir site. Probable floods at the Simanggo-2 Regulating Pond are estimated with the Creager s coefficients of the Simanggo-2 intake weir site, because short time interval rainfall records like 1-minutes do not exist in Simanggo River basin. The catchment area of the Simanggo-2 intake weir site is illustrated in Figure 47. JICA Project for the Master Plan Study of August, 211

28 A 3 km 2 L 2 km t c.32 hours The results of flood analysis are estimated as follows. Intake Pond T Q C Q (year) (m3/s) (m3/s) PMF ) Probable Floods at the Simanggo-2 Power House Site The Rambe River and the Simanggo River join together at the upstream of the Simanggo-2 Power House site. At the power house site, probable floods seem to be controlled by floods from the Simanggo River, because the catchment area of the Rambe River basin is smaller than the Simanggo River basin. So, Probable floods at the Simanggo-2 power house site are estimated with the Creager s coefficients of the Simanggo-2 intake weir site as same as the regulating pond. The catchment area of the power house site is 936.1km 2, illustrated in Figure 48. The results of flood analysis are estimated as follows. Intake Pond T Q C Q (year) (m3/s) (m3/s) PMF JICA Project for the Master Plan Study of August, 211

29 (4) Water Level Observation and Discharge Measurement As mentioned in the chapter of lowflow analysis, the field investigation of 3 month water level observation and 3 times discharge measurement was carried out from 21 September 28 th to 21 December 31 st by the sub-contractor. Consequently, the maximum water level is 3.35m and the maximum runoff is m 3 /s calculated with H-Q rating curve in extrapolation. The Equation of H-Q rating curve is given below. Q = 35.1 ( H +.29) 2 where, Q : Runoff (m 3 /sec) H : Water level (m) Runoff at the Simanggo-2 intake weir site is estimated using the following equation. Q D = QW ( AD / AW ) where, Q D : Runoff at Simanggo-2 intake weir site (m 3 /sec) Q W : Runoff at the water level gauge (m 3 /sec) A D : Catchment area at Simanggo-2 intake weir site (=478.3km 2 ) A : Catchment area at water level gauge (=29.6km 2 ) W The estimated maximum runoff at the Simanggo-2 intake weir site is m 3 /s. (5) PLTM Palilitan There is an existing intake weir of PLTM Palilitan at upstream of Simanggo-2 intake weir site. In the project report of PLTM Palilitan, the 2-year flood is estimated to be m 3 /s, and the -year flood to be m 3 /s with flood analysis using annual maximum daily rainfall from 1963 to Flood at the Simanggo-2 intake weir site can be estimated with the following equation. Q D = QW ( AD / AW ) where, Q D : Runoff at Simanggo-2 intake weir site (m 3 /sec) Q W : Runoff at PLTM Palilitan intake weir site (m 3 /sec) A D : Catchment area at Simanggo-2 intake weir site (=478.3km 2 ) A : Catchment area at PLTM Palilitan intake weir site (=436km 2 ) W Consequently, the 2-year flood at the Simanggo-2 intake weir site is estimated to be 8.71 m 3 /s, and the -year flood to be m 3 /s. The catchment area of PLTM Palilitan is measured in HPPS2 as Simanggo-1 HEPP. JICA Project for the Master Plan Study of August, 211

30 SEDIMENT ANALYSIS (1) General Sedimentation analysis is preliminarily carried out to estimate the denudation rate in the Simaggo River basin. The sedimentation load is herein predicted based on the estimated runoff and the sediment discharge rating curve at the intake weir site. The rating curve is established based on the in-situ sampling records obtained through the field investigation conducted in the course of the study. The sediment transport in the Simaggo River is judged to be higher than other rivers in the Sumatra. The denudation rate showing the expected average annual erosion rate in a river basin is generally influenced by the topography (soil condition, river gradient), deforestation of the land in the basin, rainfall intensity, etc. In addition, the design denudation rates adopted in other water resources or hydropower development projects in Sumatra are collected for comparison purposes. (2) Suspended Load Sampling A total of thirty (3) suspended load samplings were carried out at the intake weir site where discharge measurements were taken. The samples were taken to a laboratory for further analysis. The sieve analysis results of samples are shown in Figure 49. (3) Suspended Load Rating Curve The laboratory analysis results of the samples show the total suspended sediment concentration which is the combination of both dissolved and undissolved sediment. The total suspended load is found from the following formula. Q =. 864 C S Q W where, Q S : Suspended load (ton/day) C : Total suspended sediment concentration (mg/l) Q : Flow discharge (m 3 /s) W The suspended load calculations using the above formula are presented in Table 32. Several results are considered unreliable because they show very low concentration or very high concentration. Therefore these unreliable results will not be used in the determination of the suspended load rating curve. The values of Qs are plotted against their respective Qw values to determine the suspended load rating curve. On the basis of the estimated sediment discharge at the intake weir site, the suspended load rating curve is established as shown in Figure 5. The rating curve equation is given below. S QW Q = JICA Project for the Master Plan Study of August, 211

31 If the flow discharge Qw is known, the suspended load sediment Qs can be estimated. (4) Total Sediment Load The annual suspended load sediment yield is simulated by applying the above rating curve to the simulated daily runoff at the intake weir site. The catchment area of the Simaggo-2 intake weir site is 478.3km 2. Substituting runoff data, the average annual suspended load sediment at the intake weir site is estimated at 662,847 ton. The density of sediment in appearance can be calculated by the following equation. γ = ( 1 V ) γ where, γ : Density of sediment (ton/m 3 ) V : Void ratio of sediment γ : Unit weight of sediment (=2.65ton/m 3 ) Assuming a void ratio of 6 % in sedimentation, the density of sediment is found to be 1.6 ton/m 3. Hence, the annual suspended load sediment is estimated at 625,327 m 3. The sediment load transport into an intake weir generally consists of suspended load and bed load. It is generally accepted that it might be difficult to accurately measure the bed load in a natural river. Usually, the rate of bed load transport is empirically estimated at 1 to 3 % of the total suspended load. The rate of bed load transport is estimated as 1% of the total suspended load, because 1% is usually applied in Indonesia. Consequently, the mean annual sediment inflow volume into the Simaggo-2 intake weir is estimated to be 687,86 m 3 which is equivalent to a denudation rate of 1.44 mm per year. For comparison purpose, design denudation rates of various schemes around the project site are presented in the following table. JICA Project for the Master Plan Study of 15-3 August, 211

32 Project Name Project Stage Province Catchment Area Denudation Rate Source (km2) (mm/year) S. Ular Pre-F/S N. Sumatra 1,81.77 S1 Buaya Pre-F/S N. Sumatra S1 Karai Pre-F/S N. Sumatra 5.5 S1 Lausimeme Pre-F/S N. Sumatra 15.1 S1 Namobatang Pre-F/S N. Sumatra 93.1 S1 Tembengan Pre-F/S N. Sumatra 76.3 S1 Beranti Pre-F/S N. Sumatra S1 Sampanan Pre-F/S N. Sumatra 37.5 S1 Sibakudu Pre-F/S N. Sumatra 64.2 S1 Asahan D/D N. Sumatra 3, S1 Renun F/S N. Sumatra S1 Jambuaye N. Sumatra 4,56.1 S1 Wampu F/S N. Sumatra S1 Sipan Sihaporas F/S N. Sumatra S1 PLTM Palilitan Constructed N. Sumatra.17 S2 Legend S1: HPPS2, S2: PLN As seen in the above table, the design denudation rates vary from.1 to.77 mm/year. The assumed denudation rate of 1.44mm/year at the Simaggo-2 intake weir site might not be in the appropriate range. The suspended load sampling was carried out at the 2 km upstream of the Simanggo-2 intake weir site. There is existing intake weir of PLTM Palilitan between the Simanggo-2 intake weir site and the suspended load sampling site. Most of the suspended load might be trapped by the PLTM Palilitan intake weir and might not reach to the Simanggo-2 intake weir site. Consequently, the design denudation rate of the Simanggo-2 intake weir should be estimated to be relatively small value. The design denudation rate of the Simaggo-2 intake weir is estimated as.5mm/year which is the middle of design denudation rates in other projects. The design annual sediment inflow volume into the Simaggo-2 intake weir is estimated to be 239,15m 3 /year WATER QUALITY ANALYSIS Water quality is important because it is linked to the availability of water for various uses. Specifically, for the Simaggo-2 HEPP it is important for the well being of hydraulic machinery, other equipment and hydraulic structures used in the project. The laboratory test for water quality was carried out through the field investigation under the current study to identify the content of various chemical elements contained in the water in the Simaggo River. Water sampling is carried out three (3) times in total at 2 km upstream of the Simaggo-2 intake weir site. The samples were taken to a laboratory for further analysis. The laboratory test results are presented in Table 33. The table shows that the ph of the water in the Simaggo River is between 5 and 8. It is therefore judged that the water in the JICA Project for the Master Plan Study of August, 211

33 Simaggo River will have no adverse effect on turbine and metal for hydropower use, because adverse effect is expected to occur under the ph value smaller than 4.5. JICA Project for the Master Plan Study of August, 211

34 Table 1 Monthly Mean Air Temperature Station Name: Sibolga Unit: Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Average Min Max Ave Source: ( ) BMKG JICA Project for the Master Plan Study of T-1 August, 211

35 Table 2 Monthly Mean Relative Humidity Station Name: Sibolga Unit: % Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Average Min Max Ave Source: ( ) BMKG JICA Project for the Master Plan Study of T-2 August, 211

36 Table 3 Monthly Mean Sunshine Duration Station Name: Sibolga Unit: % Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Average Min Max Ave Source: ( ) BMKG JICA Project for the Master Plan Study of T-3 August, 211

37 Table 4 Monthly Mean Wind Velocity Station Name: Sibolga Unit: m/sec Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Average Min Max Ave Source: ( ) BMKG JICA Project for the Master Plan Study of T-4 August, 211

38 Table 5 Monthly Mean Pan Evaporation Station : Parapat Unit: mm/day Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Average Min Max Ave Source: Asahan 3 HEPP Construction Report, 27 Station : Gabe Hutaraja Unit: mm/day Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Average Min Max Ave Source: Asahan 3 HEPP Construction Report, 27 JICA Project for the Master Plan Study of T-5 August, 211

39 Table 6 Monthly Rainfall Records (1/12) Station Name: Segala(Sigala-gala) Station ID: 78 Unit: mm Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual , Min Max Ave ,816 Source: BMKG JICA Project for the Master Plan Study of T-6 August, 211

40 Table 7 Monthly Rainfall Records (2/12) Station Name: Tarutung Station ID: 84 Unit: mm Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual , Min Max Ave ,962 Source: BMKG JICA Project for the Master Plan Study of T-7 August, 211

41 Table 8 Monthly Rainfall Records (3/12) Station Name: Hutaraya(Gabe Hutaraja) Station ID: 84C Unit: mm Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual , , , , , , Min Max Ave ,18 Source: BMKG JICA Project for the Master Plan Study of T-8 August, 211

42 Table 9 Monthly Rainfall Records (4/12) Station Name: Barus(Baros) Station ID: 85 Unit: mm Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual , Min Max Ave ,475 Source: BMKG JICA Project for the Master Plan Study of T-9 August, 211

43 Table 1 Monthly Rainfall Records (5/12) Station Name: Siborong-borong Station ID: 86 Unit: mm Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual , , Min Max Ave ,768 Source: BMKG JICA Project for the Master Plan Study of T-1 August, 211

44 Table 11 Monthly Rainfall Records (6/12) Station Name: Dolok Sanggul Station ID: 86A Unit: mm Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual , , , Min Max Ave ,32 Source: BMKG JICA Project for the Master Plan Study of T-11 August, 211

45 Table 12 Monthly Rainfall Records (7/12) Station Name: Gugur Balige(Pintu-Pintu) Station ID: 86B Unit: mm Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Min Max Ave ,975 Source: BMKG JICA Project for the Master Plan Study of T-12 August, 211

46 Table 13 Monthly Rainfall Records (8/12) Station Name: Baligi-1(Baligi) Station ID: 86D Unit: mm Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual , , , , , , , Min Max Ave ,432 Source: BMKG JICA Project for the Master Plan Study of T-13 August, 211

47 Table 14 Monthly Rainfall Records (9/12) Station Name: Paguruan Station ID: 9 Unit: mm Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual , , , , , , , , , , , , , Min Max Ave ,865 Source: BMKG JICA Project for the Master Plan Study of T-14 August, 211

48 Table 15 Monthly Rainfall Records (1/12) Station Name: Salak Station ID: 9C Unit: mm Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual Min Max Ave ,89 Source: BMKG JICA Project for the Master Plan Study of T-15 August, 211

49 Table 16 Monthly Rainfall Records (11/12) Station Name: Sidikalang Station ID: 91 Unit: mm Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual Min Max Ave ,387 Source: BMKG JICA Project for the Master Plan Study of T-16 August, 211

50 Table 17 Monthly Rainfall Records (12/12) Station Name: Tiga Lingga Station ID: 91B Unit: mm Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual Min Max Ave ,571 Source: BMKG JICA Project for the Master Plan Study of T-17 August, 211

51 Table 18 Selected Hourly Rainfall Records Year Month Date hour Intensity (mm) h 2h 6h 12h 24h No Source: Asahan 3 HEPP Construction Report, 27 JICA Project for the Master Plan Study of T-18 August, 211

52 Table 19 Monthly Mean Runoff Records (1/3) Station Name: Pasar Sironggit Station ID: Unit: m3/s Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual Min Max Ave Source: Pusair JICA Project for the Master Plan Study of T-19 August, 211

53 Table 2 Monthly Mean Runoff Records (2/3) Station Name: Dolog Sanggul Station ID: Unit: m3/s Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual Min Max Ave Source: Pusair JICA Project for the Master Plan Study of T-2 August, 211

54 Table 21 Monthly Mean Runoff Records (3/3) Station Name: Marade Station ID: Unit: m3/s Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual Min Max Ave Source: Pusair JICA Project for the Master Plan Study of T-21 August, 211

55 Table 22 Regression Analysis of Monthly Rainfall Records Number of Data C A 86B 86D 9 9C 91 91B Segala Tarutung Hutaraya 84C Barus Siborong-borong Dolok Sanggul 86A Gugur Balige 86B Baligi-1 86D Paguruan Salak 9C Sidikalang Tiga Lingga 91B Correlation Ratio C A 86B 86D 9 9C 91 91B Segala Tarutung Hutaraya 84C Barus Siborong-borong Dolok Sanggul 86A Gugur Balige 86B Baligi-1 86D Paguruan Salak 9C Sidikalang Tiga Lingga 91B Slope of Formula (Y=aX) X C A 86B 86D 9 9C 91 91B Segala Tarutung Hutaraya 84C Barus Siborong-borong Dolok Sanggul 86A Gugur Balige 86B Baligi-1 86D Paguruan Salak 9C Sidikalang Tiga Lingga 91B JICA Project for the Master Plan Study of T-22 August, 211

56 Table 23 Estimated Monthly Basin Mean Rainfall at Pasar Sironggit AWLR Station Unit: mm Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,592 Min Max Ave ,82 Note: There is not sufficient number of daily data for estimation in June 1985, and average rainfall in June is used instead. JICA Project for the Master Plan Study of T-23 August, 211

57 Table 24 Annual Rainfall Loss of Various River Basins in Sumatra No. Station River Gauge ID Catchment Basin Annual Annual Annual Runoff Observation Name Basin Area Mean Mean Runoff Rainfall Coeff. Period Rainfall Runoff Depth Loss (km 2 ) (mm) (m 3 /sec) (mm) (mm) 1 Lhok Nibong Kr. Jambu Aye ,583 2, ,29 1, Stabat S. Wampu ,87 3, ,685 1, Lb. Sipelanduk Bt. Pane , ,82 1, Lb. Bendahara S. Rokan ,325 2, ,342 1, Tj. Ampalu Bt. Kuantan ,215 2, ,15 1, Sungai Dareh Bt. Hari ,452 3, ,197 1, Muara Inum Bt. Hari ,455 3, ,332 1, Martapura A. Musi ,26 2, ,666 1, Banjarmasin W. Tl. Bawang , ,921 1, Kunyir W. Sekampung , ,663 1, Kp. Darang Kr. Aceh ,81 2, , Tui Kareng Kr. Teunom ,43 3, ,413 1, Hp. Baru Bt. Toru ,773 2, ,466 1, Air Batu Bt. Indrapura , , Air Gadang Bt. Pasaman ,339 3, , Despetah A. Musi , , Source : Sectoral Report Vol. 2 : Hydrology, Hydro Inventory Study, July 1997 JICA Project for the Master Plan Study of T-24 August, 211

58 Table 25 Area Reduction Factor for Simanggo River Basin Paguruan Baligi-1 Gugur Baligi Hutaraya Point Rainfall (mm) Area No Date Average Reduction Hutaraya Gugur Baligi Baligi-1 Paguruan Factor /4/ /3/ /3/ /8/ /11/ /4/ /4/ /11/ /2/ /4/ /1/ /5/ /1/ /11/ /12/ /11/ /1/ /7/ /4/ /1/ /8/ /2/ /4/ /11/ /2/ /7/ /7/ /4/ /1/ /5/ /11/ /1/ /11/ /1/ /12/ /12/ /7/ /1/ /11/ /8/ /4/ /9/ /3/ /1/ /12/ /12/ /4/ /2/ /3/ /6/ /11/ /1/ /11/ /2/ /6/ /3/ /12/ /1/ /12/ /4/ /1/ /3/ /4/ /11/ /12/ /9/ /11/ /1/ /3/ /4/ /1/ /5/6 Average JICA Project for the Master Plan Study of T-25 August, 211

59 Table 26 Annual Maximum 1-Day Rainfall around Simanggo River Basin Year Hutaraya Gugur Balige Paguruan Count JICA Project for the Master Plan Study of T-26 August, 211

60 Table 27 Calculation of Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) Annual Maximun 1-Day Precipitation at Paguruan Station Unit: mm Year Rainfall Max = 115 mm (1975) n = X n = 72.5 mm S n = 23.7 mm X n-m = 7.3 mm 1974 S n-m = 22.1 mm X n-m / X n = S n-m / S n = Adjustment for Maximum Observed Event f X1 = 11% f S1 = 12% Adjustment for Sample Size f X2 = 12% f S2 = 18% Statistical Coefficient K m = Adjustment for Fixed Observational Time Intervals f = 113% Computation of PMP X n = f X1 * f X2 * X n = 74.7 mm S n = f S1 * f S2 * S n = 26.1 mm X m = X n + K m * S n = 55.9 mm 2 - PMP = f * X m = mm JICA Project for the Master Plan Study of T-27 August, 211

61 Table 28 Ratios for SCS Unit Hydrograph t/t p q/q p JICA Project for the Master Plan Study of T-28 August, 211

62 Table 29 Average Rainfall Loss at Pasar Sironggit AWLR Station Monthly Runoff at Pasar Sironggit Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Monthly Basin Mean Rainfall Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Number of Days Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Runoff Depth Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Rainfall Loss in Rainy Season Average.356 JICA Project for the Master Plan Study of T-29 August, 211

63 Table 3 Probable Flood Hydrographs at Simanggo-2 Intake Weir Catchment Area = km2 Unit:m3/s Time Return Period (year) (hour) PMF Peak JICA Project for the Master Plan Study of T-3 August, 211

64 Table 31 Probable Floods under Various Schemes in Sumatra Catchment Probable Peak Discharge (m3/sec) No Scheme River Province Area Return Period (year) (km2) , 1, PMF 1 Tampur-1 Kr. Tampur D.I. Aceh 2,25 2,87 3,59 7,47 2 Teunom-1 Kr. Teunom D.I. Aceh 9 2,3 3,12 8,39 3 Aceh-2 Kr. Aceh D.I. Aceh 323 1,3 1,47 3,51 4 Lawe Alas-4 Lawe Alas D.I. Aceh 5,75 2,5 4,25 12,5 5 Peusangan-4 Kr. Peusangan D.I. Aceh 945 1,6 6 Lake Laut Tawar Kr. Peusangan D.I. Aceh ,67 7 Residual Basin-1 Kr. Peusangan D.I. Aceh ,2 8 Jambu Aye Kr. Jambu Aye D.I. Aceh 3,89 1,939 2,331 3,8 4,85 9 Rubek Kr. Jambu Aye D.I. Aceh Residual Basin-2 Kr. Peusangan D.I. Aceh Lalang S. Belawan N. Sumatera Tembakau S. Percut N. Sumatera Lausimeme S. Percut N. Sumatera Helvetia S. Deli N. Sumatera Namobatang S. Deli N. Sumatera Baru S. Serdang N. Sumatera Pulau Tagor S. Ular N. Sumatera 1, ,7 18 Karai S. Ular N. Sumatera Brohol S. Padang N. Sumatera Rampah S. Belutu N. Sumatera Renun A. Renun N. Sumatera ,9 22 Wampu S. Wampu N. Sumatera 1,57 2,97 23 Limang S. Wampu N. Sumatera Sipan Sihaporas Sipan Sihaporas N. Sumatera ,8 25 Batang Bayang-1 Bt. Bayang W. Sumatera Batang Bayang-2 Bt. Bayang W. Sumatera Muko-Muko Bt. Antokan W. Sumatera Masang-3 Bt. Masang W. Sumatera 993 1,136 2,24 2,878 3,168 3,851 4,854 1, Merangin-5 Bt. Merangin Jambi 2,597 1,97 2,46 5,3 3 Lake Kerinci Siulak Jambi ,538 2,177 2,464 3,12 4,92 13, Batang Hari Bt. Hari Jambi 4,452 1,937 4,192 5,63 6,25 7,61 32 Batang Hari (Alt.) Bt. Hari Jambi 3,825 1,664 3,62 4,814 5,331 6, Kiri-1 Bt. Kampar Riau 1,187 2,537 7, Kiri-2 Bt. Kampar Riau 552 1, Kapoernan Bt. Kampar Riau 699 2, Kotapanjang Bt. Kampar Riau 3,337 1,183 1,624 8, 11,4 37 Upper Sinamar Bt. Indragiri Riau 3,18 3,18 8, Sukam Bt. Indragiri Riau 36 1, Lower Kuantan Bt. Indragiri Riau 7,453 1,47 4 Ombilin Bt. Ombilin Riau 1, Musi (Intake Dam) A. Musi S. Sumatera ,1 1,31 42 Musi (Regulation Dam) A. Musi S. Sumatera Martapura Way Komering S. Sumatera 4,26 1,3 1,9 2,2 2,3 2,7 6,3 44 Lematang-4 A. Lematang S. Sumatera 1,321 1,87 2,43 5,5 45 Mine Mouth Steam Plant A. Lematang S. Sumatera 3,667 6, Ketaun-1 A. Ketaun Bengkulu ,7 7,14 Simanggo-2 A. Simanggo N. Sumatera ,19 1, 3,894 Source: Hydro Inventory Study, Sectral Report Vol.2 Hydrology, July Masang-3 HEPP, JICA Project for the Master Plan Study of T-31 August, 211

65 Table 32 Calculations of Suspended Load in Simanggo River No Sampling Date Water Level Qw C Qs Remarks Site (m) (m3/s) (mg/l) (ton/day) 1 Upstream of Intake Weir 21/1/ ,432. 2, U 2 Upstream of Intake Weir 21/1/ Upstream of Intake Weir 21/1/ Upstream of Intake Weir 21/1/ , , U 5 Upstream of Intake Weir 21/11/ , , U 6 Upstream of Intake Weir 21/11/ , , U 7 Upstream of Intake Weir 21/11/ , , U 8 Upstream of Intake Weir 21/12/ Upstream of Intake Weir 21/12/ Upstream of Intake Weir 21/12/ ,47.33 Legend U: The concentration value is not reliable and not considered in the determination of the suspended load rating curve. JICA Project for the Master Plan Study of T-32 August, 211

66 Table 33 Water Quality Analysis of Simanggo River No Water Quality Parameter Unit Sample-1 Sample-2 Sample-3 Date 21/1/24 21/11/25 21/12/25 Weather Clear Clear Cloud 1 ph Temperature Total Hardness mg/l Temporary Hardness mg/l Suspended Matter mg/lit Total Solid mg/lit Ignition Residue mg/lit Permanganate Value as O2 mg/lit Carbonates as CaCO3 mg/lit 1 Bicarbonates as CaCO3 mg/lit Calcium (Ca) mg/lit Magnesium (Mg) mg/lit Sodium (Na) mg/lit Potassium (K) mg/lit Iron (Fe) mg/lit Manganese (Mn) mg/lit.7 <.2 <.2 17 Copper (Cu) mg/lit <.1 < Turbidity NTU Color Pt-Co-Unit Electric Conductivity µ/cm Aluminum (Al) mg/lit Silica (SiO2) mg/lit Lead (Pb) mg/lit <.1 <.1 <.1 24 Arsenic (As) mg/lit Ammonium (NH4) mg/lit Albuminoid mg/lit <.1 <.1 <.1 27 Nitrites (NO2) mg/lit.4.2 <.5 28 Nitrates (NO3) mg/lit Sulfities (SO3) mg/lit <.2 3 Sulfates (SO4) mg/lit Chlorides (Cl) mg/lit Phosphates (PO4) mg/lit < Oxygen (O2) mg/lit Carbon Dioxide (CO2) mg/lit P-value as CaCO3 mg/lit < M-Value as CaCO3 mg/lit JICA Project for the Master Plan Study of T-33 August, 211

67 Figure 1 Location Map of Meteo-Hydrological Stations JICA Project for the Master Plan Study of F-1 August, 21

68 Daily Rainfall Records No. Station Name BMG ID HPPS2 ID Year Remarks 1 Segala Tarutung Hutaraya 84C Barus Siborong-borong Dolok Sanggul 86A Gugur Balige 86B Baligi-1 86D Paguruan Salak 9C Sidikalang Tiga Lingga 91B Source: BMKG Jakarta Daily Runoff Records Year DPMA HPPS2 No. Station Name ID ID Remarks 1 Aek Sigeon - Pasar Sirongit years 2 A. Sibundong Dolog Sanggul years 3 A. Silang - Marade years Source: Pusair Bandung Evapolation Year No. Station Name Remarks 1 Parapat 2 Gabe Hutaraja Source: Asahan 3 HEPP Construction Report, 27 Air Temparature BMG No. Station Name ID 1 Sibolga 214 Source: BMKG HPPS2 ID Year Remarks Relative Humidity BMG No. Station Name ID 1 Sibolga 214 Source: BMKG HPPS2 ID Year Remarks Sunshine Duration BMG No. Station Name ID 1 Sibolga 214 Source: BMKG HPPS2 ID Year Remarks Wind Velocity BMG No. Station Name ID 1 Sibolga 214 Source: BMKG HPPS2 ID Year Remarks : Complite Data : Incomplite Data Figure 2 Availability of Climatic Records JICA Project for the Master Plan Study of F-2 August, 21

69 Simanggo-2 Basin km 2 A. Simanggo Simanggo-2 Intake Weir Figure 3 Catchment Area of Simanggo-2 Intake Weir based on 1:5, map A. Rambe JICA Project for the Master Plan Study of F-3 August, 211

70 Monthly Mean Air Temperature St. Sibolga Monthly Mean Relative Humidity St. Sibolga Temperature ( ) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Month Humidity ( % ) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Month Monthly Mean Sunshine Duration St. Sibolga Monthly Mean Wind Velocity St. Sibolga Duration ( % ) Velocity ( m/s ) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Month. Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Month Monthly Mean Evaporation St. Parapat Monthly Mean Evaporation St. Gabe Hutaraja Evaporation ( mm/day ) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Month Evaporation ( mm/day ) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Month Figure 4 Variations of Principal Climatic Data JICA Project for the Master Plan Study of F-4 August, 211

71 Figure 5 Organization Cart of BWS JICA Project for the Master Plan Study of F-5 August, 211

72 Discharge (m3/s) Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep 1-Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec 1982 Discharge (m3/s) Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep 1-Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec 1983 Discharge (m3/s) Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep 1-Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec 1984 Discharge (m3/s) Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep 1-Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec Figure 6 Daily Runoff Hydrograph at Pasar Sironggit Station (1/5) 1985 JICA Project for the Master Plan Study of F-6 August, 211

73 Discharge (m3/s) Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep 1-Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec 1986 Discharge (m3/s) Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep 1-Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec 1987 Discharge (m3/s) Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep 1-Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec 1991 Discharge (m3/s) Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep 1-Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec Figure 7 Daily Runoff Hydrograph at Pasar Sironggit Station (2/5) 1992 JICA Project for the Master Plan Study of F-7 August, 211

74 Discharge (m3/s) Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep 1-Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec 1993 Discharge (m3/s) Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep 1-Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec 1994 Discharge (m3/s) Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep 1-Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec 1995 Discharge (m3/s) Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep 1-Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec Figure 8 Daily Runoff Hydrograph at Pasar Sironggit Station (3/5) 1996 JICA Project for the Master Plan Study of F-8 August, 211

75 Discharge (m3/s) Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep 1-Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec 1997 Discharge (m3/s) Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep 1-Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec 1998 Discharge (m3/s) Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep 1-Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec 21 Discharge (m3/s) Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep 1-Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec Figure 9 Daily Runoff Hydrograph at Pasar Sironggit Station (4/5) 27 JICA Project for the Master Plan Study of F-9 August, 211

76 Discharge (m3/s) Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep 1-Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec 28 Figure 1 Daily Runoff Hydrograph at Pasar Sironggit Station (5/5) JICA Project for the Master Plan Study of F-1 August, 211

77 Discharge (m3/s) Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep 1-Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec 1991 Discharge (m3/s) Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep 1-Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec 1992 Discharge (m3/s) Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep 1-Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec 1993 Discharge (m3/s) Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep 1-Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec Figure 11 Daily Runoff Hydrograph at Dolog Sanggul Station (1/4) 1994 JICA Project for the Master Plan Study of F-11 August, 211

78 Discharge (m3/s) Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep 1-Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec 1995 Discharge (m3/s) Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep 1-Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec 1996 Discharge (m3/s) Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep 1-Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec 1997 Discharge (m3/s) Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep 1-Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec Figure 12 Daily Runoff Hydrograph at Dolog Sanggul Station (2/4) 1998 JICA Project for the Master Plan Study of F-12 August, 211

79 Discharge (m3/s) Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep 1-Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec 1999 Discharge (m3/s) Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep 1-Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec 21 Discharge (m3/s) Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep 1-Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec 26 Discharge (m3/s) Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep 1-Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec Figure 13 Daily Runoff Hydrograph at Dolog Sanggul Station (3/4) 27 JICA Project for the Master Plan Study of F-13 August, 211

80 Discharge (m3/s) Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep 1-Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec 28 Figure 14 Daily Runoff Hydrograph at Dolog Sanggul Station (4/4) JICA Project for the Master Plan Study of F-14 August, 211

81 Discharge (m3/s) Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep 1-Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec 1983 Discharge (m3/s) Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep 1-Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec 1984 Discharge (m3/s) Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep 1-Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec 1985 Discharge (m3/s) Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep 1-Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec Figure 15 Daily Runoff Hydrograph at Marade Station (1/5) 1986 JICA Project for the Master Plan Study of F-15 August, 211

82 Discharge (m3/s) Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep 1-Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec 1987 Discharge (m3/s) Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep 1-Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec 1988 Discharge (m3/s) Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep 1-Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec 1989 Discharge (m3/s) Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep 1-Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec Figure 16 Daily Runoff Hydrograph at Marade Station (2/5) 199 JICA Project for the Master Plan Study of F-16 August, 211

83 Discharge (m3/s) Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep 1-Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec 1991 Discharge (m3/s) Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep 1-Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec 1993 Discharge (m3/s) Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep 1-Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec 1994 Discharge (m3/s) Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep 1-Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec Figure 17 Daily Runoff Hydrograph at Marade Station (3/5) 1995 JICA Project for the Master Plan Study of F-17 August, 211

84 Discharge (m3/s) Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep 1-Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec 1996 Discharge (m3/s) Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep 1-Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec 1997 Discharge (m3/s) Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep 1-Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec 1998 Discharge (m3/s) Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep 1-Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec Figure 18 Daily Runoff Hydrograph at Marade Station (4/5) 21 JICA Project for the Master Plan Study of F-18 August, 211

85 Discharge (m3/s) Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep 1-Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec 25 Discharge (m3/s) Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep 1-Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec 26 Discharge (m3/s) Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep 1-Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec 27 Discharge (m3/s) Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep 1-Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec Figure 19 Daily Runoff Hydrograph at Marade Station (5/5) 28 JICA Project for the Master Plan Study of F-19 August, 211

86 Accumulation of annual rainfall at Tarutung station 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, y =.8683x , 2, 3, 4, 5, Accumulation of average annual rainfall at surrounding stations Accumulation of annual rainfall at Hutaraya station 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, y =.9766x , 2, 3, 4, 5, Accumulation of average annual rainfall at surrounding stations Accumulation of annual rainfall at Siborongborong station 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, y = x , 2, 3, 4, 5, Accumulation of average annual rainfall at surrounding stations Accumulation of annual rainfall at Dolok Sanggul station 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, y =.9199x , 2, 3, 4, 5, Accumulation of average annual rainfall at surrounding stations 5, Accumulation of annual rainfall at Gugur Balige station 4, 3, 2, 1, y =.8611x , 2, 3, 4, 5, Accumulation of average annual rainfall at surrounding stations Figure 2 Double Mass Curves of Rainfall Records JICA Project for the Master Plan Study of F-2 August, 211

87 2,5 Annual Runoff Depth (mm) 2, 1,5 1, 5 mm 7mm 15mm , 1,5 2, 2,5 3, 3,5 4, Annual Basin Mean Rainfall (mm) Figure 21 Relationship between Annual Basin Mean Rainfall and Annual Runoff Depth at Pasar Sironggit AWLR Station 4,5 4, mm Annual Runoff Depth (mm) 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 7 mm 1,5 mm 1, 5 5 1, 1,5 2, 2,5 3, 3,5 4, 4,5 Annual Basin Mean Rainfall (mm) Figure 22 Relationship between Annual Basin Mean Rainfall and Annual Runoff Depth of Various River Basins in Sumatra JICA Project for the Master Plan Study of F-21 August, 211

88 Figure 23 Concept of Composite Tank Model JICA Project for the Master Plan Study of F-22 August, 211

89 1977/1 1978/1 1979/1 198/1 1981/1 1982/1 1983/1 1984/1 1985/1 1986/1 1987/1 1988/1 1989/1 199/1 1991/1 1992/1 1993/1 1994/1 1995/1 1996/1 1997/1 1998/ Rain Observed Runoff Simulated Runoff Figure 24 Simulated Long-term Daily Runoff at Pasar Sironggit AWLR Station JICA Project for the Master Plan Study of F-23 August, 211

90 % Observed and Simulated Runoff (%) % % % % % % % % % % 1. 5% % % % % % % % 5.3 9% % 4.39 %.82 Average Observed and Simulated Runoff (Pasar Sirongit) Discharge (m3/s) Figure 25 Flow Duration Curve of Estimated Daily Runoff at Pasar Sironggit AWLR Station JICA Project for the Master Plan Study of F-24 August, 211

91 Figure 26 Isohyetal Map of Annual Rainfall around Simanggo River Basin JICA Project for the Master Plan Study of F-25 August, 211

92 % Estimated Runoff (%) % % % % % % % % % % 2.5 5% % % % % % % % % % 9. % 1.68 Average Simanggo-2 Intake Weir Site Estimated Runoff Discharge (m3/s) Figure 27 Flow Duration Curve of Estimated Daily Runoff at Simanggo-2 Intake Weir JICA Project for the Master Plan Study of F-26 August, 211

93 Figure 28 Location Map of Water Level Observation and Discharge Measurement JICA Project for the Master Plan Study of F-27 August, 211

94 Maximum Water Level 3.35m 21/1/1 18: 2.5 Water Level (m) Average Water Level.58m.5 Minimum Water Level.3m 21/1/22. 21/9/15 21/9/3 21/1/15 21/1/3 21/11/14 21/11/29 21/12/14 21/12/ Maximum Runoff m3/s 21/1/1 18: 4 Runoff (m3/s) Estimated Runoff with H-Q Rating Curve Discharge Measurement 15 Minimum Runoff m3/s 21/1/22 Average Runoff m3/s 5 21/9/15 21/9/3 21/1/15 21/1/3 21/11/14 21/11/29 21/12/14 21/12/29 Figure 29 Result of Water Level Observation and Hydrograph Calculated with H-Q Rating Curve JICA Project for the Master Plan Study of F-28 August, 211

95 1.4 Q=35.1(H+.29)^ Water Level (m) Observation H-Q Rating Curve Discharge (m3/s) Figure 3 H-Q Rating Curve JICA Project for the Master Plan Study of F-29 August, 211

96 Upstream Basin 29.6 km 2 Water Level Gauge Simanggo-2 Basin km 2 A. Simanggo Downstream Basin km 2 Figure 31 Catchment Area of Water Level Gauge installed by the Field Investigation JICA Project for the Master Plan Study of F-3 August, 211

97 Figure 32 Accumulated Hourly Rainfall Pattern around Simanggo River Basin and Design Hyetograph JICA Project for the Master Plan Study of F-31 August, 211

98 Area Reduction Factor Point Rainfall Depth (mm) Figure 33 Area Reduction Factor for Simanggo River Basin JICA Project for the Master Plan Study of F-32 August, 211

99 Figure 34 Frequency Curves of Probable Daily Rainfall at Paguruan station JICA Project for the Master Plan Study of F-33 August, 211

100 11 15 Length of record (years) X n adjustment factor (%) X n-m / X n Source : Operational Hydrology Report No. 1 Manual for Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation Page 97, World Meteorological Organization, 1973 Figure 35 Adjustment of Mean of Annual Series for Maximum Observed Rainfall JICA Project for the Master Plan Study of F-34 August, 211

101 Length of record (years) S n adjustment factor (%) S n-m / S n Source : Operational Hydrology Report No. 1 Manual for Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation Page 98, World Meteorological Organization, 1973 Figure 36 Adjustment of Standard Deviation of Annual Series for Maximum Observed Rainfall JICA Project for the Master Plan Study of F-35 August, 211

102 Adjustment Factor (%) Standard Deviation 15 Mean Length of Record (years) Source : Operational Hydrology Report No. 1 Manual for Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation Page 99, World Meteorological Organization, 1973 Figure 37 Adjustment of Mean and Standard Deviation of Annual Series for Length of Record JICA Project for the Master Plan Study of F-36 August, 211

103 2 15 K m 1 5 min 6 hours Duration 24 hours 1 hour Mean Annual Rainfall (mm) Figure 38 Km as a Function of Rainfall Duration and Mean of Annual Series Adjustment Factor Number of Observational Units Source : Operational Hydrology Report No. 1 Manual for Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation Pages 96 &, World Meteorological Organization, 1973 Figure 39 Adjustment of Fixed Interval Precipitation Amounts for Number of Observational Units within the Interval JICA Project for the Master Plan Study of F-37 August, 211

104 1,8 Slope 1,6 1,4 Height (m) 1,2 1, hr 1.4hr 1.7hr - 5, 1, 15, 2, 25, 3, 35, 4, Distance (m) Figure 4 Slope of Simanggo River Discharge (m3/s) Time (hour) Figure 41 SCS Unit Hydrograph at Simanggo-2 Intake Weir JICA Project for the Master Plan Study of F-38 August, 211

105 Daily Runoff Record at Pasar Sironggit Station Dischatge (m3/s) 1991/1/1 1991/3/1 1991/5/1 1991/7/1 1991/9/1 1991/11/1 1992/1/1 1992/3/1 1992/5/1 1992/7/1 1992/9/1 1992/11/1 1993/1/1 1993/3/1 1993/5/1 1993/7/1 1993/9/1 1993/11/1 Figure 42 Daily Runoff Hydrograph at Pasar Sironggit AWLR Station JICA Project for the Master Plan Study of F-39 August, 211

106 Time (hour) PMF Discharge (m3/s) Figure 43 Probable Flood Hydrographs at Simanggo-2 Intake Weir JICA Project for the Master Plan Study of F-4 August, 211

107 , Probable Maximum Flood Flood Peak Discharge (m3/s) 1, 1, PMF C=79 Simanggo-2 PMF 1 1 1, 1,, Catchment Area (km2) 1, Return Period = 2 year Flood Peak Discharge (m3/s) 1, 2 C=22 Simanggo , 1,, Catchment Area (km2) Figure 44 Relationship between Probable Peak Discharge and Catchment Area in Sumatra (1/3) JICA Project for the Master Plan Study of F-41 August, 211

108 1, Return Period = year Flood Peak Discharge (m3/s) 1, C=21 Simanggo , 1,, Catchment Area (km2) 1, Return Period = 2 year Flood Peak Discharge (m3/s) 1, 2 C=17 Simanggo , 1,, Catchment Area (km2) Figure 45 Relationship between Probable Peak Discharge and Catchment Area in Sumatra (2/3) JICA Project for the Master Plan Study of F-42 August, 211

109 1, Return Period = 2 year Flood Peak Discharge (m3/s) 1, 2 C=1 Simanggo , 1,, Catchment Area (km2) Figure 46 Relationship between Probable Peak Discharge and Catchment Area in Sumatra (3/3) JICA Project for the Master Plan Study of F-43 August, 211

110 Figure 47 Catchment Area of Regulating Pond based on 1:1, Map JICA Project for the Master Plan Study of F-44 August, 211

111 Simanggo-2 Basin km 2 Rambe Basin km 2 Sub Basin 25.9 km 2 A. Simanggo A. Rambe Simanggo-2 Intake Weir Simanggo-2 Power House Sub Basin 9.1 km 2 Figure 48 Catchment Area of Power House based on 1:25, Map JICA Project for the Master Plan Study of F-45 August, 211

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