Strategy Management Consultancy. Regional Analysis. k n o w l e d g e c e n t e r linesight.com/knowledge
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1 Strategy Management Consultancy US Regional Analysis k n o w l e d g e c e n t e r 2017 linesight.com/knowledge
2 Contents US Market Review 3 Macro indicators 6 Value of construction output public/private US construction by type of work US earnings in construction Employment in construction Euro vs. US dollar Linesight average American construction costs Indices 10 Annual construction cost index 10 US regional building cost index 11 Top US contractors and design firms 12 Top 20 US contractors 12 Top 20 US design firms 12 Contributors: Pat Ryan, Steven Cooke, Declan Comer, Joe Cusick, Michelle Cooke Linesight US
3 US Market Review Total construction starts are forecasted to rise by 5 percent to US$713 billion this year, with gains of 8 percent expected for both residential building and nonresidential building The US construction market is experiencing a mature expansion phase, characterized by a deceleration in growth rates in 2016 when compared to figures, but growth nonetheless. Total construction starts were slightly behind 2015 indicators, but these lower figures reflected unusually high activity at the beginning of 2015, which was driven by 13 very large projects valued at a minimum US$1 billion, such as the US$2.5 billion office tower in New York city. Total construction starts are forecasted to rise by 5 percent to US$713 billion this year, with gains of 8 percent expected for both residential building and non-residential building, while non-building construction will decline by a further 3 percent. Commercial building is expected to increase by approximately 6 percent in 2017 this growth reflects the commencement of a number of signature office towers and associated developments in downtown markets. Slow retail markets last year look set for some improvement, while hotel construction will begin to decelerate after a strong East Coast According to the New York Building Congress, the current building boom is set to continue through the next two years, with US$42.1 billion in construction spending projected for 2017 and US$42.3 billion in The five boroughs of New York City contributed to over US$22 billion in new construction starts during the first nine months of Manhattan remained the dominant contributor with 58 percent of all new projects starts. Employment in the construction sector has grown year-on-year since The total number of workers in the NYC construction industry is set to increase again in 2017 to approximately 147,000, which will represent 9,000 new jobs in Government spending on public works, which includes investments in mass transit, roads, bridges and other essential infrastructure, is forecast to reach US$14.3 billion in 2017 and US$14.1 billion in Annual materials and labor price escalation came in at 4.8 percent in Skilled labor shortages will keep the rate of increase in line with previous years. Major project starts 2016 One Vanderbilt 1,750,000 sq.ft. 3 Hudson Boulevard 1,800,000 sq.ft. Brooklyn Navy Yard Dock 4,000,000 sq.ft. Marriott Moxy New York 350,000 sq.ft. South Beach Psychiatric Center 250,000 sq.ft. 3 US
4 Ongoing mega projects Hudson Yards +US$2.5 billion MTA Capital Plan US$30 billion La Guardia Airport +US$4 billion Waterline Square +US$1.5 billion Domino Sugar Factory +US$1.5 billion 3 World Trade +US$2.75 billion West Coast This year promises to deliver the most new office space in terms of square footage to San Francisco in three decades, at double the amount that hit the market in The number of residential unit completions in San Francisco in 2017 is lower than last year, but it is still significant at over 3,000. Annual construction volume is forecast to hit US$34.3billion during 2017, exceeding the 2005 peak. A number of landmark projects are also underway. Oceanwide Center, which will be San Francisco s second tallest tower when completed, held its ground-breaking ceremony in December; this landmark development, which includes 265 condos, hotel and office space in two towers, will reshape the city s skyline. The Golden State Warriors Arena also held its ground-breaking ceremony for the team s new arena in the Mission Bay area in January. Project completions 2016 VTA Berryessa BART Extension; +US$700 million 181 Fremont St; +US$650 million SF MOMA; +US$250 million 340 Fremont St; +US$150 million Apples US$5 billion Campus 2 is to be complete in 2017 Upcoming projects Oceanwide Center SF Shipyard and Candlestick Redevelopment; US$8 billion Parkmerced 5,500 new housing units Treasure Island; US$6 billion Mission Rock Mixed Use; SF Giants US$1.5 billion Transbay Transit Center; +US$2 billion Treasure Island Salesforce Tower Third Street Light Rail HOPE Sunnydale Seawall; Lot 337 (mixed use) 4 US
5 Chicago / Mid-West update From the Chicago Cubs adding a new clubhouse to over 30 new high rise buildings in progress in the area, construction in Chicago has been strong in recent times. Along with the steady increase in new construction over the last six years; commercial occupancy rates in the city were at a 15-year high in The market is showing signs of decelerating in 2017, however, with an oversupply of residential property, in particular, having an impact. In their January 2017 issue, Engineering News-Record (ENR) forecasted this deceleration in the Chicago market, from its high point in This will be driven by a reduction in the residential market starts, which are forecasted to drop to US$5.48 billion. This decline will outpace the steady rise expected in non-residential areas, dragging the overall construction starts in 2017 down to US$12.30 billion from the 2016 high of US$13.20 billion. Government spending on public works, including mass transit, roads, bridges and other essential infrastructure, is expected to increase, with over US$1 billion in live projects at present, and several multi-billion dollar mega-projects on the horizon. Annual materials and labor price escalation was between 4 and 5 percent in 2016, depending on source. As is the case in other parts of the US, skilled labor shortages will keep the rate of increase in line with previous years for Major project starts 2016 Vista Tower One Bennett Park Major project starts 2017 McDonald s HQ A.Finkl & Sons steel plant redevelopment 5 US
6 Macro indicators Value of construction output public/private $bn Public Private Source: US Census Bureau US construction by type of work Private 1 6 Public Residential 2. Commercial 3. Health Care 4. Educational 5. Miscellaneous 6. Infrastructure 7. Manufacturing 520,912 82,575 30,916 19, , ,568 60, Residential 2. Commercial 3. Health Care 4. Educational 5. Miscellaneous 6. Infrastructure 5,630 11,351 9,462 67,305 23, ,378 Note: Millions of dollars. Figures are up until August Source: US Census Bureau 6 US
7 US earnings in construction $ $23.01 $23.96 $24.83 $25.20 $25.42 $25.74 $26.12 $26.68 $27.35 $28.10 $ Note: Average earnings per hour Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment in construction ,000,000 7,500,000 7,000,000 6,500,000 6,000,000 5,500,000 5,000, Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 7 US
8 Euro vs dollar Jan Apr Oct Jan Apr Oct Jan Apr Oct Jan Apr Oct Jan Apr Oct Jan Apr Oct Jan Apr Oct Source: European Central Bank 8 US
9 Linesight average American construction costs 2017 San Francisco Seattle New York USD / Sq.ft. High Low High Low High Low Residential Sector Medium Quality - Low Rise Apartments Medium Quality - High Rise Apartments Commercial / Office Sector Average standard offices Low Rise - Medium Rise Medium Rise - High rise High standard offices Low Rise - Medium Rise Manufacturing Sector Light industrial Heavy industrial Hotel & Leisure / Retail Sector Budget / 3 Star Star District Shopping Center Regional Shopping Center Education Sector Primary Schools Secondary Schools Notes: 1. All costs exclude Tax and professional fees 2. Costs based on January 2017 prices 3. The costs are representative of typical specifications for each type of building and do not account for any site abnormal costs 4. The costs do not allow for any loose furniture, fittings and equipment, external works, landscaping works Source: Linesight 9 US
10 Indices Annual construction cost index 11,000 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6, Source: Engineering News-Record 1913 = US
11 US regional building cost index Birmingham 0.86 Cincinnati 0.93 New Orleans 0.93 Dallas 0.93 Cleveland 0.94 Detroit 0.94 Denver 0.94 Atlanta 0.94 Minneapolis 0.96 Seattle 0.97 Baltimore 0.97 Washington DC 1.00 Pittsburgh 1.01 Chicago 1.05 Boston 1.06 Philadelphia 1.06 Los Angeles 1.14 San Francisco 1.19 New York City 1.20 Source: Compass 16th annual edition 11 US
12 Top US contractors and design firms Top 20 US contractors 2016 rank Firm revenue $bn 1 Bechtel Flour Corp The Turner Corp CB&I LLC Aecom Kiewit Corp Skanska USA Inc PCL Construction Enterprises Inc Tutor Perini Corp The Whiting-Turner Contracting Co The Walsh Group Ltd Clark Group Gilbane Building Co Balfour Beatty US Structure Tone DPR Construction Swinerton Inc Mortenson Construction Hensel Phelps McCarthy Holdings Inc Note: Ranked by domestic revenue ranking is based on 2016 revenue. Source: Engineering News-Record Top 20 US design firms 2016 rank Firm revenue $bn 1 Aecom EAC Jacobs EAC CH2M EAC Flour Corp EC Tetra Tech Inc E CB&I LLC EC AMEC Foster Wheeler EC HDR EAC KBR EC Stantec Inc3 EAC Bechtel EC Parsons EC Arcadis North America EAC WSP I Parsons Brinckerhoff E Black & Veatch EC Burns & Veatch EAC Intertex-PSI E Gensler A HNTB COS EC Golder Associates E 0.90 Key to type of firm: A=Architect, E=Engineer, C=Contractor Note: 2017 ranking is based on design services performed in 2016 Source: Engineering News-Record 12 US
13 New York (East coast) 286 Madison Avenue Suite 602 New York, NY USA T: Patrick Ryan San Francisco (West coast) 388 Market Street Suite 1300 San Francisco, CA USA T: Steven Cooke
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