2017 Economic Outlook. A View from Grow MN! s Window
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1 2017 Economic Outlook A View from Grow MN! s Window
2 What is Grow Minnesota!? Business Retention Business Assistance Statewide: 70 local partners 15 years old
3 Grow MN! Present 11,010 business retention visits 2,072 businesses assisted 19,692 jobs impacted
4 Grow MN! business retention visits 169 businesses assisted 373 jobs impacted 26 visits in Roseville
5 Grow MN! s Leading Indicators Innovation: New products? New services? Exports: To U.S.? To the world? Investment: Equipment? Expansion? New facilities? Workforce: Right skills? Right supply?
6 2017 Outlook Key Findings: 2015: Better start than finish 2016: Slow but stable growth 2017: Moderate growth; signs of continued strength
7 2017 Roseville Visits Manufacturing 6 7 Professional/Scientific/Technical Services Other Services Educational Services Finance/Insurance Health Care/Social Assistance Retail Trade Wholesale Trade 26 total visits
8 MN s national rank for most patents per capita Source:
9 Innovation drives growth Percentage of businesses with new products last year Metro Greater MN 54% 66% 62% 60% 74% 69% 71% 68% 76% 64%
10 Innovators outperform those that don t Percentage of Minnesota Businesses with Increased Sales New products No new products 76% 71% 78% 74% 71% 58% 60% 61% 62% 54%
11 Innovation in Roseville Medical device technology Sports Technology/Mfg Software development Engineering & Architecture
12 total export value in 2016 Source:
13 MN Exports to the World $4B 1,044 types of products $2.3B $2.2B 207 countries supporting 120,000 MN jobs
14 Room to grow for MN exports Percentage of Minnesota Businesses that Export Metro Greater MN 31% 31% 28% 25% 24% 22% 24% 20% 23% 23%
15 Change in MN export value by quarter DEED Quarterly Export Statistics, % 4% 6% 5% 7% 2% 0% 0% Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q % -3% -3% -5% -10% -9% -8%
16 of MN businesses are planning new capital investments Source:
17 Steady levels of capital investment Percentage of businesses planning new investments Metro Greater MN 54% 66% 55% 64% 63% 57% 58% 55% 63% 46%
18 Capital Investments in Roseville 6 of 25 Roseville businesses planning new investments All 6 want to stay in Roseville if possible Adding space and equipment to increase production
19 MN s national rank in labor force participation Source: MANUFACTURING-JOBS-facebook.jpg
20 Businesses are adding jobs Percentage of businesses planning adding jobs last year Metro Greater MN 48% 53% 51% 57% 47% 40% 35% 38% 41% 38%
21 Job Growth in Roseville 5 of 25 businesses visited added jobs last yr 8 of 25 plan to add jobs next yr
22 Strong Roseville job growth in ,000 40,000 City of Roseville Employment 39,973 39,000 38,000 37,000 36,000 35,000 34,000 33,000 32, Q3 2008Q3 2009Q3 2010Q3 2011Q3 2012Q3 2013Q3 2014Q3 2015Q3 2016Q3 2017Q3 Source: JobsEQ, 2017
23 Signs of continued job growth next yr Percentage of businesses planning adding jobs next year Increase Relatively Stable Decrease Unsure 50% 50% 45% 43% 4% 5% 1% 2% Metro Greater MN
24 Trouble filling jobs continues Percentage of businesses reporting difficulty finding employees *8 of 12 Roseville businesses reported hiring challenges Metro Greater MN 73% 68% 26% 13%
25 What s driving labor shortage? 2.3% Metro area unemployment rate (lowest in of any major metro in the nation) 80%-90% Labor force participation rate for Minnesotans aged % Projected MN labor force growth rate between Source: DEED, Labor Market Statistics, 2018
26 Jobs in demand in Metro Current Demand Rank Job Title MN Projected Growth Rate (10yr) Education Requirements 1 Retail Salespersons 5.8% < High school 2 Personal Care Aides 25.3% < High school 3 Registered Nurses 13% AA Degree 4 Food Preparation and Serving Workers 9.7% < High school 5 Supervisors of Food Prep and Serving Workers 9.1% High school/ged 6 Cashiers -0.6% < High school 7 Stock Clerks and Order Fillers 0.7% < High school 8 Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers 3.1% High school/ged 9 Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers -0.8% < High school 10 Software Developers 9.7% BA Degree DEED Occupations in Demand, 2017
27 Fastest growing jobs in Metro Current Demand Rank Job Title MN Projected Growth Rate (10yr) Education Requirements 360 Wind Turbine Service Technicians 90% Some postsecondary 225 Statisticians 36% MA degree 51 Home Health Aides 30.7% < High school 501 Cartographers and Photogrammetrists 30.7% BA degree 407 Dietetic Technicians 29.2% AA degree 67 Physician Assistants 28% MA degree 69 Operations Research Analysts 28% BA degree 84 Nurse Practitioners 27.8% MA degree 327 Hearing Aid Specialists 27.3% High School/GED 180 Massage Therapists 25.7% Some postsecondary DEED Occupations in Demand, 2017
28 Finding workers: What s working in MN? Challenges Senior staff retiring in next 5 yrs Poaching by other firms Too few candidates Especially so for physically demanding jobs Skills gap Recruiting professionals to move to MN Strategies Partner with local schools Internships Promote from within Staffing agencies Referrals by existing employees Raise wages Refugee employment programs Automation/robotics
29 Source: minnesota-state-capitol-governors.html
30 Most Tracked State Policies
31 2017 Outlook: Roseville Economy Fueling Growth Innovation remains strong Companies adding jobs Businesses are planning new investments Exports starting to bounce back Slowing Growth Labor shortages hold back job growth
32 QUESTIONS Kathi Schaff Director Grow Minnesota! Minnesota Chamber of Commerce
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