Blind Spots. Eight innings into a perfect game, what could go wrong in this environment of low interest rates, vacancy and cap rates?

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1 Q INDUSTRIAL NORTH AMERICA HIGHLIGHTS Blind Spots Eight innings into a perfect game, what could go wrong in this environment of low interest rates, vacancy and cap rates? INDICATORS Relative to prior period VACANCY US Q US Q2 2013* N.A. INDUSTRIAL SUMMARY STATISTICS, Q Canada Q Canada Q2 2013* NET ABSORPTION CONSTRUCTION RENTAL RATE** *Projected, relative to prior period **Warehouse rents K.C. CONWAY Chief Economist USA KEY TAKEAWAYS Can the perfect game continue into the ninth? For the eighth straight quarter, the North American vacancy rate declined in the 77 markets tracked by Colliers. Q1 vacancy is down 20 basis points to 8.20% (8.68% among the primary 65 U.S. markets and 4.13% among the 12 primary Canadian markets). Check your blind spots. We weigh some potentially overlooked risks to industrial s stellar performance, including cap rate compression, due diligence risk, and increased construction activity. See Blind Spots on page 9 for the full list. Absorption remains strong vs. job growth. Despite anemic job growth below 200,000 per month, demand for industrial warehouse space and modern distribution centers remains strong. On the heels of nearly 71 MSF of net absorption in Q4 2012, the market absorbed another 50.5 MSF in Q NORTH AMERICAN INDUSTRIAL VACANCY, INVENTORY AND ABSORPTION Q US CAN NA VACANCY RATE (%) Change from Q (%) ABSORPTION (MSF) NEW CONSTRUCTION (MSF) UNDER CONSTRUCTION (MSF) Absorption Per Market q4 '12 - q1 '13 6,000,000 3,000, , ,000 ASKING RENTS PER SF (USD/CAD) Average Warehouse/ Distribution Center US CAN NA ,000,000-6,000,000 Sq. Ft. By Region 4 billion 2 billion 400 mil Change from Q (%) Occupied Sq. Ft. Vacant Sq. Ft.

2 Inland MSAs outpacing port markets in absorption. Other than Los Angeles, the leadership in warehouse leasing is coming from the inland distribution markets. The top five markets for net absorption in Q were Chicago, LA, Atlanta, Detroit and Cincinnati. New Supply is picking up, but is neither excessive nor speculative. New industrial construction this quarter increased by one-third to 40.6 MSF. But put in perspective, this is less than quarterly average net absorption from Q to Q (45 MSF). And, more than half of this new space is pre-leased or build-to-suit distribution centers for major retailers and manufacturers. Cap rates continue to compress and warehouse prices rise due to increasing investor demand for warehouses. As institutional investors become anxious about the multifamily market and take note of industrial s perfect game in the making, demand for modern warehouse properties in core port and inland distribution markets is on the rise. The Perfect Game Over the last two years, North American industrial warehouse markets have pitched a perfect game through the eighth inning, to use a baseball analogy. The property type has seen eight successive quarters of declining vacancy rates, with net absorption outpacing new supply more than 2:1. Recognizing that Canadian markets account for only 10 percent of the North American warehouse space and these 12 markets have maintained a stable vacancy rate of approximately 5% with relatively no new supply the improvement in these metrics has largely occurred in the primary 65 U.S. warehouse markets. Here s what that looks like: U.S. INDUSTRIAL WAREHOUSE PERFORMANCE PAST NINE QUARTERS So, as the pitcher takes the mound in the ninth, we wonder if he can close out the perfect game. We do our best not to jinx him by thinking of what might go wrong, but sometimes we can t help ourselves. A USA Today article by Adam Shell ( With stocks this hot, why worry? ), published as this report was going to press, assessed concerns over whether the stock price eruption is another bubble, or solidly rational. Bloomberg published a similar piece on the paradox of how sustained good news makes us nervous, and gave a Worry List of economic factors that could reverse the seemingly vertical trend in stock values. Jinx or no, these are reasonable concerns given how real estate values across all asset classes industrial especially have climbed in a relatively short period. So, what are the potential blind spots that conceal risks to industrial s perfect game? The Economy Visitor Home GDP, Jobs and Industrial Warehouse Demand Let s start with a quick review of key industrial economic measures to understand the plot behind this historic performance so far. U.S. GDP and industrial real estate have been out of sync since the financial crisis. This decoupling is contrary to all previous U.S. economic recoveries. Every time GDP has appeared poised for a momentous upward trend in the past three years, it collapses back in the next one to three quarters, to just 0.1% 1.3%. And this roller-coaster ride of economic activity is despite record liquidity infusions into the U.S. economy by our central bank, the Federal Reserve. What does this pattern in GDP mean for U.S. industrial real estate? Should we be concerned? Yes but for the near term it may not matter. However, in the long run it matters a lot UNITED STATES GDP GROWTH RATE (% CHANGE) Q Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Absorption MSF Completions MSF Vacancy % And industrial warehouse isn t doing it alone: other property types on the commercial real estate team are backing up the industrial pitcher with all-star numbers in key supply and demand metrics, resulting in cap rate compression to record-low levels. And U.S. equities have turned in an even stronger performance: The Standard & Poor s (S&P) 500 index is up an astonishing 800 percent from its 2009/2010 lows, and 17 percent this year alone Vacancy % Q Q Any time economic growth and commercial real estate performance are disconnected, it usually ends badly when we find that we all had a blind spot for some artificial stimulus. Prior to 1987, it was an historic change in SOURCE: Bureau of Economic Analysis Hardly a perfect performance for U.S. economic growth...more like a roller coaster P. 2 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL

3 the tax laws that ended investors ability to use real estate losses to offset gains in other investments, which in turn led to an S&L and real estate crisis. Pre-2007, the artificial stimulus was easy credit for housing and commercial real estate (subprime and securitizable, financially engineered mortgage-products), which overstimulated housing construction, elevated home ownership rates and lifted CRE values to record levels until it all came crashing back to Earth. Today, our government and central bank are playing a game of chicken, pitting the Federal Reserve s zero-interest rate monetary policy against accelerating fiscal deficits in Congress, which hopes to reach top speed (i.e., full employment) before both vehicles collide. Investors and asset prices are caught in the middle, and the natural response is to jump out of the way. This flight from bonds, sovereign debt, and cash will end badly with a thing called inflation. This explains why industrial and other commercial real estate assets are thriving in a weak GDP environment as investors look for a safe haven from fiscal deficits and inflationary monetary policy. The other half of the story, though, is more encouraging: on-shoring, or the return of manufacturing that left the U.S. over the past three decades. This manufacturing renaissance in the U.S. is due to many factors: patent protection, cheap and reliable energy, and technology and robotics that enable 80+ percent automation of factories. Automation has reduced the importance of the labor cost issue in manufacturer s calculations. What s more, retailers and manufacturers are realizing that they need to make substantial capital investments in their supply-chain infrastructure to capitalize on new manufacturing efficiencies, and to accommodate growth in e-commerce activity of 3 4 times today s levels, or 10% of gross retail sales. In other words, the good news for industrial real estate is that it s not just an artificial stimulus driving this performance. Since automation allows us to produce goods for consumption by the global community particularly LATAM, Russia and non-eurozone Europe without significant job creation, we can expect sub-trend GDP growth in perpetuity. Here again, the Fed s monetary policy and U.S. fiscal deficits will eventually end badly. The Institute for Supply Management s (ISM) monthly Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) documents manufacturing expansion during a four-year period of sub-trend (i.e., below 3%) GDP and employment growth. Over the course of the past 15 years, the PMI has dipped below 50 for a period of 6 months or more only twice: i) in 2001 following Y2K and the onset of a brief technology recession, and after the 9/11 attacks; and ii) Winter 2008 to Summer 2009, during the financial crisis. Since then, manufacturing activity has expanded for 47 consecutive months. OF THE LEASES SIGNED THIS QUARTER*, DID MOST TENANTS...? CHARACTERIZE CURRENT INDUSTRIAL RENTS IN YOUR Expand Hold Steady Contract Declining Bottoming No Clear Direction Increasing Peaking 100% 80% 60% 60.0% 44.4% 33.3% 61.9% 33.3% 50.0% 47.1% N.A. 2.9% 11.4% 22.9% 60.0% 2.9% 40% 20% 0% 58.3% 66.7% 55.6% 40.0% 38.1% 50.0% 51.4% 8.3% 1.4% Midwest Northeast South West Canada U.S. N.A. Canada U.S. 8.3% 8.3% 25.0% 1.7% 12.1% 22.4% 41.7% 16.7% 63.8% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% *Excluding renewals % of Reporting Markets % of Reporting Markets 3-MONTH FORECAST FOR VACANCY LEVELS (relative to current quarter) 3-MONTH FORECAST FOR RENTS (relative to current quarter) Down Same Up Down Same Up 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 10.0% 4.8% 3.4% 5.7% 22.2% 16.7% 10.0% 23.8% 27.6% 44.4% 31.4% 50.0% 80.0% 77.8% 55.6% 71.4% 69.0% 62.9% 33.3% Midwest Northeast South West Canada U.S. N.A. 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 40.0% 66.7% 60.0% 33.3% 16.7% 55.6% 61.9% 56.9% 50.0% 75.0% 47.1% 44.4% 33.3% 41.4% 4.8% 8.3% 1.7% 2.9% Midwest Northeast South West Canada U.S. N.A. % of Reporting Markets % of Reporting Markets COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL P. 3

4 PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEX HISTORICAL DATA (>50 INDICATES EXPANDING MANUFACTURING ECONOMY) YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC SOURCE: Institute of Supply Management And, the most recent ISM PMI report shows continued growth in new orders, manufacturing employment, and manufactured exports. MANUFACTURING AT A GLANCE APRIL 2013 INDEX SERIES INDEX APRIL SERIES INDEX MARCH CHANGE (%) DIRECTION RATE OF CHANGE TREND* (MONTHS) PMI Growing Slower 5 New Orders Growing Faster 4 Production Growing Faster 8 Employment Growing Slower 43 Supplier Deliveries Slowing From Faster 1 Inventories Contracting Faster 2 Customers' Inventories Too Low Faster 17 Prices Unchanged From Increasing 1 Backlog of Orders Growing Faster 3 Exports Growing Slower 5 Imports Growing Faster 3 OVERALL ECONOMY Growing Slower 47 Manufacturing Sector Growing Slower 5 What ISM Survey Respondents Are Saying About Industry SPRING 2013 Production is still strong; several new projects to support alternative energy. (Primary Metals) Automotive demand remains firm. (Fabricated Metal Products) Business continues at a steady pace. (Machinery) General business conditions and industrial markets remain strong. (Transportation Equipment) Seasonal pick-up underway in the office furniture industry. (Furniture & Related Products) Overall, volume is steady. Q1 sales volume is lower than projected. (Chemical Products) SOURCE: Institute of Supply Management P. 4 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL

5 Behind the Statistics & Beyond the Basics Scope of Colliers Industrial Outlook Report: Colliers monitors industrial property conditions in 77 North American markets from Miami to Montreal, totaling 16.3 billion square feet of inventory. Approximately 90 percent (14.6 billion square feet) of this inventory is located in the United States. The West and Midwest regions constitute approximately half of North American industrial warehouse space (8.1 billion square feet); combined, they also account for approximately 60% of the annual net leasing activity in North America. The South is the next-largest region, with 4.2 billion square feet, or 26% of North American industrial warehouse space. The expansion of the Panama Canal and the addition of at least five more post-panamax ports to the East and Gulf coasts will only enhance the market share of key inland and port distribution markets in the Southeast and Southwest by With respect to the numbers for Q1 2013, the table below tells the story: VACANCY Vacancy continues to decline in North American warehouse markets in U.S. markets at twice the pace of Canadian markets, due to greater oversupply and on-shoring of U.S. manufacturing. From a regional perspective, Canada has the lowest average vacancy rate in North America at 4.13 percent (down 12 basis points from Q4 2012), and the Northeast U.S. has the highest vacancy rate at 9.56 percent (down 11 basis points from Q4 2012). The West and Midwest are the only two regions in the U.S. with vacancy rates below the 8.7 percent national average. Vacancy Rate US CAN NA Q % 4.25% 8.40% Q % 4.13% 8.20% Quarter over Quarter Change (basis points) NORTH AMERICAN INDUSTRIAL OVERVIEW Q MEASURE NORTH AMERICA CANADA UNITED STATES WEST/MIDWEST SOUTH NORTHEAST # of Markets Inventory (MSF) 16, , , , , ,240.6 % of N.A. Inventory New Supply (Q MSF) % of N.A. New Supply Vacancy (%) Absorption (MSF) % of N.A. Absorption Leadership Markets Absorption: Toronto, Calgary and Vancouver Absorption, Top 5: Chicago, LA, Atlanta, Detroit and Cincinnati Absorption, Midwest Top 5: Chicago, Detroit, Cincinnati, Cleveland and Kansas City. Absorption, West Top 3: LA, Phoenix and Seattle. Absorption, Top 5: Atlanta, Memphis (#1 Air Cargo in world), Charlotte (housing recovery), Jacksonville and Houston (key port markets). Leasing activity, Top 3: Baltimore (newest post- Panamax port), Philadelphia (energy) and Pittsburgh. Laggard Markets Absorption: Montreal and Waterloo (net negative in Q1 2013) Vacancy: Halifax, Waterloo and Ottawa (above 5%). COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL P. 5

6 TOP 23 NORTH AMERICAN INDUSTRIAL S WITH VACANCY BELOW NORTH AMERICAN AVERAGE VACANCY RANKING 1 CANADA MSA Q VACANCY RATE (%) Vancouver Toronto Montreal Calgary 4.7 PROFILE 3rd largest Canadian industrial market Largest Canadian industrial market 2nd largest Canadian industrial market 4th largest Canadian industrial market ABSORPTION It would have been a tall order for North American first-quarter warehouse absorption to equal or exceed the 71 MSF achieved in Q s net industrial absorption was the best since the financial crisis, and Q4 net absorption accounted for 45 percent of CY 2012 net leasing activity in aggregate. However, despite the headwinds of the unresolved Fiscal Cliff, the deferred International Longshoremen s Association (ILA) strike along the East and Gulf coasts, and more deterioration in Europe, Q absorption turned in a solid performance. Approximately 50 MSF of warehouse space was absorbed 94% in the primary 65 U.S. warehouse markets. Which markets outperformed and why? 5 UNITED STATES Honolulu Los Angeles Orange County Houston 4.9 Top-20 North American port Busiest North American TEU container port Busiest Gulf Coast port As revealed by year-end vacancy statistics, there is a strong correlation to port and intermodal markets, with three wrinkles: Detroit, Cleveland and Kansas City (influenced by the auto recovery) Charlotte & Phoenix (influenced by the housing recovery), and Baltimore (the newer of only two East Coast post-panamax ports, along with the Port of Virginia) 9 Long Island 5.4 Port of New York influence ABSORPTION SELECT U.S. S Q Seattle Kansas City Indianapolis Milwaukee Miami Portland Grand Rapids L.A. Inland Empire Denver Columbus, Ohio Cincinnati San Francisco Peninsula Cleveland, Ohio New Jersey (Northern) 8.4 Top-10 North American port market Top-10 North American intermodal rail Developing intermodal link to California Key Great Lakes region port Top-20 North American port to Latin America Top-20 North American port autos and agriculture Proximity to Great Lakes ports & rail Top-5 intermodal rail facility Top-10 intermodal rail & air cargo Top-5 air cargo market; link to port of Virginia Intermodal and rail linkage to Canada Vital West Coast port market Great Lakes and auto manufacturing influence Port of New York influence Los Angeles Inland Empire, CA Dallas-Ft. Worth, TX New Jersey Central New Jersey Northern ABSORPTION CANADIAN S Q Toronto, ON Calgary, AB Vancouver, BC Edmonton, AB Ottawa, ON Regina, SK Saskatoon, SK Victoria, BC Halifax, NS Winnipeg, MB Waterloo Region, ON Montreal, QC Chicago, IL Atlanta, GA Detroit, MI Los Angeles, CA Indianapolis, IN Savannah, GA Millions Millions #5 #23 are the 19 U.S. markets with a vacancy rate < U.S. average of 8.7% P. 6 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL

7 From a regional perspective, net absorption is strongest in the Midwest (17.5MSF) and South (13.4 MSF), led by Chicago, Detroit and Cincinnati in the Midwest, and Atlanta, Memphis and Charlotte, NC, in the South. Los Angeles, Phoenix and Seattle experienced the most net leasing activity in Q1 along the West Coast, and Baltimore has taken over leadership in the Northeast as America s newest post-panamax port, followed by Philadelphia with energy trading activity along the Delaware River. Inland markets this quarter outpaced port markets in absorption. The top 5 markets with respect to net absorption in Q were: 1 Chicago 6.0 MSF 2 Los Angeles 4.3 MSF (2.05 MSF from Inland Empire) 3 Atlanta 3.0 MSF 4 Detroit 2.3 MSF (Right-to-work is paying dividends in Michigan) 5 Cincinnati 2.1 MSF Rounding out the top ten this quarter are Cleveland (1.9 MSF); Memphis, Kansas City and Charlotte (each with 1.7 MSF); and Baltimore (1.5 MSF). Why haven t the big hitters (fiscal uncertainty, unemployment and labor unrest) ended industrial s perfect game? Because development and leasing activity is fueled by distributors, manufacturers, retailers and shippers that need to re-engineer their supply chains to gain efficiencies required in the post-panamax era, just two years away. Seven of the top ten U.S. markets for both Q and CY 2012 absorption were top-ten North American port or intermodal industrial markets MSA Q (MSF) MSA CY 2012 (MSF) Chicago (INTERMODAL) Los Angeles (PORT + INLAND) Atlanta (INTERMODAL) Detroit (AUTO RECOVERY) Cincinnati (MANUFACTURING) Cleveland (AUTO + GREAT LAKES) Kansas City (INERMODAL) 6.0 Chicago 4.3 Dallas/ Ft. Worth 3.0 Detroit Los Angeles Inland Empire Los Angeles Coastal 1.9 Atlanta 1.7 Houston (INTERMODAL) (INTERMODAL) (AUTO-RECOVERY) (INTERMODAL) (PORT) (INTERMODAL) (PORT) Looking forward to 2013, delayed delivery of new space under construction is the only significant obstacle to industrial leasing activity in key port and intermodal markets such as Los Angeles, Seattle, Houston and Memphis. These markets can t complete new space fast enough to meet demand, and market forces will likely result in disproportionately high 2H 2013 net leasing activity, as was the case in CONSTRUCTION ACTIVITY Finally, eight innings into a perfect game, the bullpen is warming up as new construction activity on the rise. Although there is a dearth of product for sale, an estimated 40% of existing U.S. warehouse space is functionally obsolete (less than 30-foot clear height, etc.). There is added urgency on the part of retailers and manufacturers to occupy or build modern distribution facilities aligned with key post-panamax ports, intermodal rail facilities, and air cargo/e-commerce fulfillment paths. In Q1, new construction activity increased by 27 percent, from 32 MSF at year-end 2012 to 40.6 MSF. The ten states with the most warehouse and distribution center space under construction are Texas (7.0 MSF), New Jersey (4.9 MSF), Georgia (3.6 MSF), Illinois (3.1 MSF), Pennsylvania (2.7 MSF), Ohio (2.3 MSF), Arizona (2.0 MSF), Florida (1.8 MSF), Utah (1.8 MSF), and California (1.2 MSF). [Source: Dodge Pipeline, Q1 2013] In our search for blind spots, should this steep increase in new construction be one such metric to monitor? While it s worth tracking over the next 3 5 quarters, investors and developers can take comfort in two key metrics that put this construction activity in proper perspective. First, 40.6 MSF of construction is less than the average quarterly net absorption over the previous four quarters; that is, leasing activity is outpacing new construction underway four to one. Second, more than half of this new construction is pre-leased or build-to-suit for owner occupancy by large retailers and manufacturers. National retailers such as Amazon, Dollar Tree, Family Dollar, FedEx, Home Depot, L Oreal, Publix, O Reilly Auto Parts, Restoration Hardware, Target, Tractor Supply and Whole Foods are constructing in excess of 20 MSF of modern distribution and logistics centers from coast to coast. Here s a sampling of these projects in the ten states with the most new construction activity: STATE NEW WAREHOUSE CONSTRUCTION (MSF) Texas 7.0 LARGEST DISTRIBUTION CENTERS UNDER CONSTRUCTION Amazon: three 1.0+ MSF centers in Dallas and San Antonio Restoration Hardware: 850,000 SF in Grand Prairie (Dallas, TX) L Oreal: 500,000 SF in suburban Dallas New Jersey 4.9 Amazon: 1.0MSF in Trenton Georgia 3.6 Home Depot: 1.0 MSF in Atlanta Tractor Supply: 700,000 SF in Macon (Atlanta area) Memphis (#1 AIR CARGO) Charlotte, NC (HOUSING) Baltimore-New PPMX Port 1.7 Phoenix 1.7 Columbus 1.5 Seattle (HOUSING RECOVERY) (AIR CARGO) (PORT) Illinois 3.1 Trader Joe s: 800,000 SF in Chicago Pennsylvania 2.7 PetSmart and Dollar General Ohio 2.3 Tween: 750,000 SF Arizona 2.0 Florida 1.8 American Furniture: 632,000 SF outside Phoenix Publix and O Reilly Auto Parts: Orlando and Lakeland COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL P. 7

8 ENGINEERING NEWS-RECORD S CONSTRUCTION COST INDEX YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC AVG INDEX METHODOLOGY: 200 hours of common labor at the 20-city average of common labor rates, plus 25 cwt of standard structural steel shapes at the mill price prior to 1996 and the fabricated 20-city price from 1996, plus tons of portland cement at the 20-city price, plus 1,088 board-ft of 2x4 lumber at the 20-city price. Despite the uptick in new warehouse and distribution center construction in Q1, over-building risk remains low given the scarcity of debt capital for speculative construction by banks, and the limited amount of speculative warehouse construction underway. If net absorption were to slip over the next three quarters, and new projects increased in each succeeding quarter by the same amount as in Q1 2013, over-building would become a concern in One danger that spans all commercial property types is rising construction costs. Because Colliers has elevated this item in prior Outlook reports, it should come as no surprise that construction costs never actually declined during the financial crisis and ensuing recession. As documented in Engineering News-Record s Construction Cost Index, construction costs have risen nearly 20% since Spring 2007, and are up an additional 2.7% in June 2013 over June Investors and developers considering new construction investments should budget construction cost increases at double the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for 2H 2013 and 2014, due to pressures on labor and materials. WAREHOUSE TRANSACTION ACTIVITY According to Real Capital Analytics and the Colliers Q1 Broker Survey, Q saw approximately $7.0 billion of industrial real estate transactions, of which $4.8 billion was spent on acquiring pure warehouse properties. Although that volume was a 16% increase over aggregate Q industrial property transactions, there was a 41% increase in warehouse property sales alone. Clearly, investment capital has an increased appetite for warehouse properties. While some observations from the transaction data were predictable such as the predominance of sales activity in key Western markets like Los Angeles (nearly $1.0 billion in total warehouse transactions) other observations are contrary to recent activity. In particular, the volume of property sales in secondary and tertiary MSAs ($4.0 billion) outpaced those located in core/primary MSAs ($3.0 billion). With anxiety growing over whether the multifamily market is overheating, and industrial real estate continuing its perfect game quarter after quarter, transaction activity will remain robust for warehouse properties. The only limiting constraint is likely to be a dearth of assets and portfolios for sale. CONSTRUCTION COSTS The CCI annual escalation rate inched up to 2.7% in June from 2.4% in May and 2.0% in March. 20-CITY: 1913 = 100 JUNE 2013 INDEX VALUE % CHANGE MONTH % CHANGE YEAR Construction Cost Common Labor Wage $/Hour Source: Engineering News-Record P. 8 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL

9 Conclusion The Blind Spots So, what could disrupt this perfect game in industrial real estate? What blind spots should we be aware of this year to avoid an ROI or NOI wreck in 2014 or 2015? BLIND SPOT #1: Favoring functionally obsolete warehouse space over modern, in-demand, distribution centers in Post-Panamax era supply-chain markets. A significant portion of existing U.S. warehouse space is functionally obsolete (clear heights below 30 feet, less than 60-foot column spacing, etc.), or is located in markets that will not be central to the post-panamax supply chain. Modern distribution centers need 30-foot clear ceiling height for conveyor systems, as well as connectivity to post-panamax ports via intermodal rail and proximity to air cargo centers for e-commerce fulfillment. Distribution, logistic and e-commerce fulfillment centers along the paths linking ports, intermodal rail, and air-cargo are your geographic sign-posts and investment markers. Be careful what physical product you invest in and where. Refer to Colliers 1H 2013 North American Ports Outlook report at for more detailed information. BLIND SPOT #2: Elevated new construction activity. Although the Q increase in construction activity doesn t indicate a supply-demand imbalance, this metric needs to be monitored closely over the next 4 6 quarters. Six to eight quarters ago a similar uptick in multifamily constuction coincided with another perfect game (vacancy falling to 5%, doubledigit rental increases for eight consecutive quarters, record cap rate compression, etc.), and today the market is anxious about overbuilding in light of 200,000+ annualized permits. BLIND SPOT #5: Due diligence risk. Sellers are now commanding shorter and shorter periods of due diligence when selling properties, owing to the scarcity of available assets, and the attention that industrial s perfect game has brought to the sector. This is one of the greatest new risks to the industrial market. In Q1 Colliers saw due diligence periods compress to 2 4 weeks for a number of warehouse transactions that either were in growth-restricted MSAs or had investment-grade tenants. This feeding frenzy for institutional-quality warehouse assets is shifting due diligence risk from the seller to the buyer. Let the buyer be prepared: have legal, inspection and environmental vendors ready to go at the drop of a contract, positioned to close in as little as two weeks. BLIND SPOT #6: Overlooking adaptive re-use opportunities. Not all warehouse properties are created equal and not all markets can easily develop new supply to relieve demand pressures. As a result, Colliers is seeing functionally obsolete properties being acquired for adaptive re-use in growth-restricted port markets. For example, older manufacturing properties close to the market s port facilities are being converted to distribution space in cities such as Los Angeles, San Francisco, Seattle, Miami, Charleston, and New York. Developers and investors shouldn t overlook these adaptive reuse opportunities in this feeding frenzy to acquire assets. In conclusion, we re all rooting for industrial as it takes the mound for a ninth inning in Q with a perfect game on the line. But in our excitement about higher ROIs and NOIs for our real estate assets, it s reasonable to remember there are still dangers out there. Keep your eye on the ball, recognize the warehouse investment cycle we ve entered, and monitor the blind spots such as the ones we ve discussed above. BLIND SPOT #3: Cap rate compression. Industrial has been the last commercial property type to experience cap rate compression since 2010, but it s now catching up. The cap rates of 7%+ reported by RCA are national averages, and do not reflect the sub-6% transaction activity for portfolios or individual modern distribution buildings in key port and inland distribution markets. Colliers is seeing rates in the 5% range for these institutional warehouse properties. While cap rates can compress another basis points from the national 7% average, the pace of this compression should be monitored. Recall that at a cap rate below 8%, it only takes a 200 basis point increase to wipe out 25% of a property s value. BLIND SPOT #4: Port and transportation worker strife. An ILA strike was finally averted this past quarter and a six-year dock workers contract agreed upon for the East and Gulf coast ports. It took a painful five months (October 2012 to February 2013), during which retailers and manufacturers re-routed or accelerated cargo shipments to beat changing strike deadlines. Unfortunately, this process will repeat itself for the West Coast ports at the end of And, other labor strike issues loom in trucking and ports in LATAM, Asia and Europe. The 8-day Los Angeles clerical workers strike last fall demonstrated how disruptive such stoppages can be to the flow of goods, and many port tenants now have operational clauses in their leases that provide for rent relief if cargo cannot move through the ports. Know what s in your leases. COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL P. 9

10 UNITED STATES INDUSTRIAL SURVEY INVENTORY MAR. 31, 2013 NEW CONSTRUCTION Q CURRENTLY UNDER CONSTRUCTION NORTHEAST Baltimore, MD 229,098,236 1,042,000 Boston, MA 152,776,556 1,200,031 Hartford, CT 96,802, ,000 Long Island, NY 162,706,462 30, ,564 New Jersey Central 353,745,719 1,259,244 New Jersey Northern 374,436,831 1,444,817 Philadelphia, PA 412,989, ,280 1,994,550 Pittsburgh, PA 180,812, , ,302 Washington, DC 277,212, ,686 1,673,765 Northeast Total 2,240,580,373 2,647,086 8,562,273 SOUTH Atlanta, GA 608,874,310 10,000 5,753,055 Birmingham, AL 101,989, ,000 Charleston, SC 32,653, , ,000 Charlotte, NC 331,567, , ,015 Columbia, SC 37,856,194 Dallas-Ft. Worth, TX 718,440, ,641 3,124,220 Ft. Lauderdale-Broward, FL 123,462, , ,376 Greenville/Spartanburg, SC 184,939,773 Houston, TX 485,486,002 1,108,430 2,670,272 Jacksonville, FL 123,123,887 1,162,760 91,270 Little Rock, AR 45,009,027 18, ,443 Louisville, KY 176,471,087 15,000 Memphis, TN 220,677, ,892 1,745,000 Miami, FL 221,182, , ,280 Nashville, TN 113,566,903 1,128,500 Orlando, FL 145,323,950 Raleigh, NC 118,406,504 20,850 Richmond, VA 113,233, , ,730 Savannah, GA 44,621, , ,000 Tampa Bay, FL 212,868,243 35, ,500 West Palm Beach, FL 60,048,254 20,900 South Total 4,219,802,007 5,745,350 18,581,411 P. 10 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL

11 UNITED STATES INDUSTRIAL SURVEY (continued) INVENTORY MAR. 31, 2013 NEW CONSTRUCTION Q CURRENTLY UNDER CONSTRUCTION MIDWEST Chicago, IL 1,310,969,792 1,586,541 4,738,635 Cincinnati, OH 244,257, ,938 Cleveland, OH 512,363,265 39,685 Columbus, OH 212,366,316 90,800 1,233,303 Detroit, MI 552,701, ,746 Grand Rapids, MI 112,282, ,000 Indianapolis, IN 281,007,396 2,060, ,640 Kansas City, MO-KS 235,738, ,377 2,117,425 Milwaukee, WI 223,736, ,575 90,000 Minneapolis/St. Paul, MN 247,588, , ,000 Omaha, NE 67,721,789 35,636 St. Louis, MO 271,993, , ,268 Midwest Total 4,272,727,560 6,836,504 11,189,592 WEST Albuquerque, NM 36,902, ,500 Bakersfield, CA 33,426,098 21,400 2,243,673 Boise, ID 35,307, ,067 Denver, CO 215,963, ,271 Fairfield, CA 46,880,086 48,133 Fresno, CA 48,600,000 Honolulu, HI 40,071,033 Las Vegas, NV 109,306, , ,320 Los Angeles, CA 887,796,700 3,031,000 Los Angeles Inland Empire, CA 421,172,500 1,528,300 4,674,600 Oakland, CA 141,540,885 1,092,215 Orange County, CA 182,738, ,200 Phoenix, AZ 273,317, ,992 5,226,079 Pleasanton/Tri-Valley, CA 16,425,448 Portland, OR 202,569, ,000 1,884,623 Reno, NV 88,034,379 Sacramento, CA 189,042,368 70,000 San Diego, CA 187,148,659 49, ,429 San Francisco Peninsula, CA 40,898,873 54,000 San Jose/Silicon Valley, CA 251,655, ,100 Seattle/Puget Sound, WA 261,779,846 2,000,000 Stockton/San Joaquin County, CA 94,105,012 56,000 1,017,353 Walnut Creek, CA 17,760,034 West Total 3,822,444,564 2,824,148 23,428,363 U.S. TOTALS 14,555,554,504 18,053,088 61,761,639 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL P. 11

12 UNITED STATES INDUSTRIAL SURVEY ABSORPTION AND VACANCY AS OF MARCH 2013 ABSORPTION Q VACANCY RATE (%) DEC. 31, 2012 VACANCY RATE (%) MAR. 31, 2013 NORTHEAST Baltimore, MD 1,510, Boston, MA 20, Hartford, CT (39,368) Long Island, NY 388, New Jersey Central 249, New Jersey Northern (264,668) Philadelphia, PA 1,361, Pittsburgh, PA 569, Washington, DC 438, Northeast Total 4,233, SOUTH Atlanta, GA 3,041, Birmingham, AL (22,649) Charleston, SC 43, Charlotte, NC 1,676, Columbia, SC 265, Dallas-Ft. Worth, TX 1,159, Ft. Lauderdale-Broward, FL 658, Greenville/Spartanburg, SC 384, Houston, TX 1,332, Jacksonville, FL 1,376, Little Rock, AR (234,132) Louisville, KY (749,083) Memphis, TN 1,679, Miami, FL 318, Nashville, TN (15,157) Orlando, FL 844, Raleigh, NC 369, Richmond, VA 123, Savannah, GA 256, Tampa Bay, FL 602, West Palm Beach, FL 324, South Total 13,436, P. 12 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL

13 UNITED STATES INDUSTRIAL SURVEY ABSORPTION AND VACANCY AS OF MARCH 2013 (continued) ABSORPTION Q VACANCY RATE (%) DEC. 31, 2012 VACANCY RATE (%) MAR. 31, 2013 MIDWEST Chicago, IL 6,038, Cincinnati, OH 2,114, Cleveland, OH 1,904, Columbus, OH 213, Detroit, MI 2,308, Grand Rapids, MI 37, Indianapolis, IN 761, Kansas City, MO-KS 1,720, Milwaukee, WI 491, Minneapolis/St. Paul, MN 1,054, Omaha, NE 125, St. Louis, MO 687, Midwest Total 17,458, WEST Albuquerque, NM 39, Bakersfield, CA (308,397) Boise, ID 858, Denver, CO 265, Fairfield, CA 52, Fresno, CA 100, Honolulu, HI 43, Las Vegas, NV 688, Los Angeles, CA 2,282, Los Angeles Inland Empire, CA 2,049, Oakland, CA 758, Orange County, CA 262, Phoenix, AZ 1,361, Pleasanton/Tri-Valley, CA (38,232) Portland, OR (7,361) Reno, NV (250,374) Sacramento, CA 64, San Diego, CA 972, San Francisco Peninsula, CA 537, San Jose/Silicon Valley, CA 1,055, Seattle/Puget Sound, WA 1,026, Stockton/San Joaquin County, CA 387, Walnut Creek, CA 76, West Total 12,277, U.S. TOTALS 47,405, COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL P. 13

14 UNITED STATES INDUSTRIAL SURVEY SALES PRICE AND CAP RATE AS OF MARCH 2013 SALES PRICE (USD PSF) CAP RATE (%) VACANCY FORECAST (3 MONTHS) ABSORPTION FORECAST (3 MONTHS) RENT FORECAST (3 MONTHS) NORTHEAST Baltimore, MD Boston, MA Hartford, CT Long Island, NY New Jersey Central New Jersey Northern Close to zero Philadelphia, PA Pittsburgh, PA Washington, DC Northeast Average* SOUTH Atlanta, GA Birmingham, AL Close to zero Charleston, SC Charlotte, NC Columbia, SC Dallas-Ft. Worth, TX Ft. Lauderdale-Broward, FL Greenville/Spartanburg, SC Houston, TX Jacksonville, FL Little Rock, AR Close to zero Memphis, TN Miami, FL Nashville, TN Orlando, FL Richmond, VA Savannah, GA Close to zero Tampa Bay, FL West Palm Beach, FL South Average* * Straight averages used. P. 14 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL

15 UNITED STATES INDUSTRIAL SURVEY SALES PRICE AND CAP RATE AS OF MARCH 2013 (continued) SALES PRICE (USD PSF) CAP RATE (%) VACANCY FORECAST (3 MONTHS) ABSORPTION FORECAST (3 MONTHS) RENT FORECAST (3 MONTHS) MIDWEST Chicago, IL Cincinnati, OH Cleveland, OH Columbus, OH Detroit, MI Grand Rapids, MI Indianapolis, IN Kansas City, MO-KS Milwaukee, WI Minneapolis/St. Paul, MN Omaha, NE St. Louis, MO Midwest Average* WEST Albuquerque, NM Close to zero Bakersfield, CA Boise, ID Denver, CO Fairfield, CA Fresno, CA Honolulu, HI Las Vegas, NV Los Angeles, CA Close to zero Los Angeles Inland Empire, CA Oakland, CA Orange County, CA Phoenix, AZ Pleasanton/Tri-Valley, CA Portland, OR Sacramento, CA San Diego, CA San Francisco Peninsula, CA San Jose/Silicon Valley, CA Stockton/San Joaquin County, CA Walnut Creek, CA Close to zero West Average* U.S. AVERAGE* * Straight averages used. COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL P. 15

16 UNITED STATES INDUSTRIAL SURVEY QUOTED RENTS AS OF MARCH 2013 WAREHOUSE/DISTRIBUTION (USD PSF) BULK (USD PSF) FLEX/SERVICE (USD PSF) TECH/R&D (USD PSF) NORTHEAST Baltimore, MD Boston, MA Hartford, CT Long Island, NY New Jersey Central New Jersey Northern Philadelphia, PA Pittsburgh, PA Washington, DC Northeast Average* SOUTH Atlanta, GA Birmingham, AL Charleston, SC Charlotte, NC Columbia, SC Dallas-Ft. Worth, TX Ft. Lauderdale-Broward, FL Greenville/Spartanburg, SC Houston, TX Jacksonville, FL Little Rock, AR Louisville, KY Memphis, TN Miami, FL Nashville, TN Orlando, FL Raleigh, NC Richmond, VA Savannah, GA Tampa Bay, FL West Palm Beach, FL South Average* * Straight averages used. P. 16 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL

17 UNITED STATES INDUSTRIAL SURVEY QUOTED RENTS AS OF MARCH 2013 (continued) WAREHOUSE/DISTRIBUTION (USD PSF) BULK (USD PSF) FLEX/SERVICE (USD PSF) TECH/R&D (USD PSF) MIDWEST Chicago, IL Cincinnati, OH Cleveland, OH Columbus, OH Detroit, MI Grand Rapids, MI Indianapolis, IN Kansas City, MO-KS Milwaukee, WI Minneapolis/St. Paul, MN Omaha, NE St. Louis, MO Midwest Average* WEST Albuquerque, NM Bakersfield, CA Boise, ID Denver, CO Fairfield, CA Fresno, CA Honolulu, HI Las Vegas, NV Los Angeles, CA Los Angeles Inland Empire, CA Oakland, CA Orange County, CA Phoenix, AZ Pleasanton/Tri-Valley, CA Portland, OR Reno, NV Sacramento, CA San Diego, CA San Francisco Peninsula, CA San Jose Silicon Valley, CA Seattle/Puget Sound, WA Stockton/San Joaquin County, CA Walnut Creek, CA West Average* U.S. AVERAGE* * Straight averages used. COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL P. 17

18 CANADA INDUSTRIAL SURVEY INVENTORY MAR. 31, 2013 NEW CONSTRUCTION Q CURRENTLY UNDER CONSTRUCTION Calgary, AB 125,749, ,350 3,100,443 Edmonton, AB 79,421, ,150 1,596,770 Halifax, NS 7,604,256 7, ,000 Montréal, QC 348,025,640 30, ,740 Ottawa, ON 28,134,055 64,000 47,500 Regina, SK 16,928,786 40, ,000 Saskatoon, SK 21,084, , ,000 Toronto, ON 762,336,331 70,000 6,256,003 Vancouver, BC 183,061, ,051 1,632,575 Victoria, BC* 8,908,924 25,000 Waterloo Region, ON 60,330,421 4, ,794 Winnipeg, MB* 79,692, ,435 CANADA TOTAL 1,721,276,851 1,880,976 13,839,260 * Data for Victoria and Winnipeg is from Q CANADA INDUSTRIAL SURVEY ABSORPTION Q VACANCY RATE DEC. 31, 2012 VACANCY RATE MAR. 31, 2013 Calgary, AB 1,058, Edmonton, AB 197, Halifax, NS Montréal, QC (515,943) Ottawa, ON 133, Regina, SK 123, Saskatoon, SK 83, Toronto, ON 1,326, Vancouver, BC 1,007, Victoria, BC* 17, Waterloo Region, ON (315,880) Winnipeg, MB* CANADA TOTAL 3,113, * Data for Victoria and Winnipeg is from Q P. 18 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL

19 CANADA INDUSTRIAL SURVEY SALES PRICE AND CAP RATE AS OF MARCH 2013 SALES PRICE (CAD PSF) CAP RATE (%) VACANCY FORECAST (3 MONTHS) ABSORPTION FORECAST (3 MONTHS) RENT FORECAST (3 MONTHS) Calgary, AB Edmonton, AB Halifax, NS 7.25 Montréal, QC Ottawa, ON Close to zero Regina, SK Saskatoon, SK Toronto, ON Vancouver, BC Victoria, BC* Close to zero Waterloo Region, ON Winnipeg, MB* Close to zero CANADA AVERAGE** * Data for Victoria and Winnipeg is from Q ** Straight averages used. CANADA INDUSTRIAL SURVEY QUOTED RENTS AS OF MARCH 2013 WAREHOUSE/DISTRIBUTION (CAD PSF) BULK (CAD PSF) FLEX/SERVICE (CAD PSF) TECH/R&D (CAD PSF) Calgary, AB Edmonton, AB Halifax, NS Montréal, QC Ottawa, ON Regina, SK Saskatoon, SK Toronto, ON 4.86 Vancouver, BC Victoria, BC* Waterloo Region, ON Winnipeg, MB* CANADA AVERAGE** * Data for Victoria and Winnipeg is from Q ** Straight averages used. COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL P. 19

20 INDUSTRIAL VACANCY RANKINGS US VACANCY RATE MAR 31, 2013 (%) Honolulu, HI 3.56 Bakersfield, CA 3.79 Los Angeles, CA 3.91 Houston, TX 4.97 Orange County, CA 4.97 Omaha, NE 4.99 Long Island, NY 5.44 Seattle/Puget Sound, WA 5.65 Kansas City, MO-KS 6.14 Indianapolis, IN 6.40 Milwaukee, WI 6.51 Miami, FL 6.56 West Palm Beach, FL 6.74 Portland, OR 6.84 Grand Rapids, MI 7.10 Los Angeles Inland Empire, CA 7.21 Denver, CO 7.28 Oakland, CA 7.70 Columbus, OH 7.75 Pittsburgh, PA 7.84 Boise, ID 7.84 Minneapolis/St. Paul, MN 8.02 Ft. Lauderdale-Broward, FL 8.06 Columbia, SC 8.08 Cincinnati, OH 8.12 San Francisco Peninsula, CA 8.15 St. Louis, MO 8.17 Cleveland, OH 8.35 New Jersey Northern 8.42 U.S. AVERAGE 8.68 Hartford, CT 8.72 Louisville, KY 8.79 Chicago, IL 9.00 Fresno, CA 9.05 Greenville/Spartanburg, SC 9.06 Dallas-Ft. Worth, TX 9.08 New Jersey Central 9.15 Tampa Bay, FL 9.19 Nashville, TN 9.26 Walnut Creek, CA 9.35 Raleigh, NC 9.36 San Diego, CA 9.43 Philadelphia, PA 9.68 Orlando, FL 9.69 Pleasanton/Tri-Valley, CA 9.70 Birmingham, AL 9.70 Jacksonville, FL 9.81 Baltimore, MD 9.88 Richmond, VA Fairfield, CA San Jose/Silicon Valley, CA Albuquerque, NM Washington, DC Detroit, MI Reno, NV Charleston, SC Charlotte, NC Savannah, GA Little Rock, AR Memphis, TN Phoenix, AZ Stockton/San Joaquin County, CA Atlanta, GA Sacramento, CA Las Vegas, NV Boston, MA INDUSTRIAL VACANCY RANKINGS CANADA VACANCY RATE MAR 31, 2013 (%) Regina, SK 2.96 Winnipeg, MB 2.97 Edmonton, AB 3.34 Vancouver, BC 3.50 Toronto, ON 3.89 CANADA AVERAGE 4.13 Victoria, BC 4.23 Montréal, QC 4.50 Calgary, AB 4.72 Ottawa, ON 5.50 Saskatoon, SK 5.50 Waterloo Region, ON 6.66 Halifax, NS 9.65 Glossary Absorption Net change in occupied space over a given period of time. Bulk Space Warehouse space 100,000 square feet or more with minimum ceiling heights of 24 feet. All loading is dock-height. Flex Space Single-story buildings having 10- to 18-foot ceilings with both floor-height and dock-height loading. Includes wide variation in office space utilization, ranging from retail and personal service, to distribution, light industrial and occasional heavy industrial use. Inventory Includes all existing multi- or single-tenant leased and owner-occupied industrial warehouse, light manufacturing, flex and R&D properties greater than or equal to 10,000 square feet. New Construction Includes completed speculative and build-to-suit construction. New construction quoted on a net basis after any demolitions or conversions. Service Space Single-story (or mezzanine) with 10- to 16-foot ceilings with frontage treatment on one side and dock-height loading or grade-level roll-up doors on the other. Less than 15 percent office space. Tech/R&D One- and two-story, 10- to 15-foot ceiling heights with up to 50 office/dry lab space (remainder in wet lab, workshop, storage and other support), with dock-height and floor-height loading. Triple Net Rent Includes rent payable to the landlord, and does not include additional expenses such as taxes, insurance, maintenance, janitorial and utilities. All industrial and high-tech/r&d rents in this report are quoted on an annual, triple net per square foot basis in U.S. and Canadian dollars. Vacancy Rate Percentage of total inventory available (both vacant and occupied) as at the survey date including direct vacant and sublease space. Warehouse 50,000 square feet or more with up to 15 percent office space, the balance being general warehouse space with 18- to 30-foot ceiling heights. All loading is dock-height. 482 offices in 62 countries on 6 continents United States: 140 Canada: 42 Latin America: 20 Asia Pacific: 195 EMEA: 85 $2 billion in annual revenue 13,500 professionals and staff 1.12* billion square feet under management $71 billion USD in total transaction value *Together, Colliers International and FirstService manage 2.51 billion square feet of property second-largest in the world. COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL 601 Union Street, Suite 4800 Seattle, WA TEL FOR MORE INFORMATION K.C. Conway Chief Economist USA TEL kc.conway@colliers.com James Cook Director of Research USA TEL james.cook@colliers.com CONTRIBUTORS Jeff Simonson Senior Research Analyst USA Jennifer Macatiag Graphic Designer USA Cliff Plank National Director GIS & Mapping Aaron Finkelstein Communications Manager USA Copyright 2013 Colliers International. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable. While every reasonable effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot guarantee it. No responsibility is assumed for any inaccuracies. Readers are encouraged to consult their professional advisors prior to acting on any of the material contained in this report. Accelerating success. COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL P. 20