3. FUTURE YEAR TRAFFIC & NO-BUILD ALTERNATIVE ANALYSIS

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1 3. FUTURE YEAR TRAFFIC & NO-BUILD ALTERNATIVE ANALYSIS This section documents the project future conditions for 2035 including future traffic volumes and the resulting No-Build Alternative traffic operations in the study area. The highway capacity analysis presented in this chapter is based on a future roadway condition where no new roadway improvements are in place other than those already planned and programmed in VDOT s Six-Year Plan or the FAMPO Long-Range Transportation Plan. 3.1 Projected Growth As stated in the 2035 FAMPO Long-Range Transportation Plan, population forecasts gathered from the Weldon Cooper Center show that the George Washington Region will continue to experience high growth rates and development through The regional population will nearly double from the current population of 325,000 to 600,000 by 2035 (See Figure 3-1). Employment will also experience growth during this time. In fact, projections indicate that employment will grow more drastically than the population. Specifically, the 2006 total employment of 97,424 is expected to more than double to 207,841 in According to the Table 3-1, sectors of employment expected to experience the most growth are Finance, Insurance & Real Estate, as well as the Service industry. On the other hand, likely due to land consumption through development, Farm Employment is projected to experience a decline during these same years. Figure 3-1: Population Projection for George Washington Region Page 41

2 Table 3-1: Regional Employment Projections 3.2 Planned Transportation Infrastructure Several planned roadway improvements located within the study area have been identified in local area plans and the 2035 FAMPO Constrained Long-Range Plan. FAMPO Constrained Long Range Plan 2035 LRTP includes a Constrained Long Range Plan (CLRP), which highlights numerous improvements to the transportation infrastructure within the study area. The Table 3-2 includes the proposed projects for roadways in proximity to the project area in all three jurisdictions. Intersection Improvements Three of the projects listed in Table 3-2 result in capacity improvements to several of the study intersections. The widening of from Chewning Lane to Gordon Road improves intersections #2 & #3. The widening of Bragg Road from to River Road improves intersection #4. The widening of Route 17 from McLane Drive to Stafford Lakes Parkway improves intersection #9. Improvements for each intersection are listed below and are part of the No-Build alternative. Intersection #2 (VA 3 & Gordon Road) Additional eastbound and westbound thru lane Auxiliary lane (continuous right turn lane) Page 42

3 Intersection #3 (VA 3 & Five Mile Road Extension) Additional eastbound and westbound thru lane Auxiliary lane (continuous right turn lane) Intersection #4 (VA 3 & Bragg Road) Additional eastbound left turn Modify southbound approach to include left, left/thru, and two right turn lanes. Intersection #9 (US 17 & Falls Run Drive) Additional northbound left turn lane and northbound thru lane Auxiliary lane (continuous right turn lane) Highway/ Street Name Route Number I Prince William Co. Line Table 3-2: FAMPO Constrained Project List in Study Area FAMPO Constrained Project List (Including Projects within Study Area Only) From To Length in Miles I I-95 Plank Rd. (PR-3) (st) Warrenton Rd. US-17 Berea Church Hartwood Rd. Rd. (SC-654) (SC-612) Improvement Description Estimated YOE^ Total Cost (Inflated to YOE) Allocation I-95 Int. # Construct 2 Hot Lanes 2015 $0.00 $ Construct new I-95 interchange & limited access toll road 3.8 Widen from 4 to 6 lanes divided with paved highway shoulders 2020 $332,100,000 $58,280,000 (PE & ROW only) 2030 $67,037,000 $67,037,000 (sp) Plank Rd. PR-3 Chewning Ln. (SC-707) Gordon Rd. (SC-627) 2.4 Widen from 4 to 6 lanes divided (currently under construction) 2015 $0.00 $0.00 (st) Warrenton Rd. US-17 McLane Dr. Stafford Lakes Pkwy. 2.5 Widen from 4 to 6 lanes divided with sidewalks 2015 $12,630,000 $12,630,000 (sp) Harrison Rd. SC-620 Gordon Rd. (SC-627) Plank Rd. (PR-3) 0.5 Widen from 2 to 4 lanes with sidewalks (currently under construction) 2015 $0.00 $0.00 (sp) Harrison Rd. SC-620 Plank Rd. (PR- 3) (fr) Fall Hill Ave. UR-3965 Mary Washington Blvd. Extended (sp) Bragg Rd. SC-639 Plank Rd. (PR- 3) Salem Church Rd. (SC-639) Carl D. Silver Pkwy. River Rd. (SC-618) 2.3 Upgrade with turn lanes, intersection and other operational improvements 1.6 Widen from 2 to 4 lanes with sidewalk and shared use path 1 Widen from 2 to 4 lanes with sidewalks (recently completed) 2030 $69,621,000 $69,621, $25,630,000 $25,630, $0.00 $0.00 (st) Truslow Rd. Extension SC-652 Poplar Rd. (SC-616) Warrenton Rd. (US-17) 0.4 New alignment with paved highway shoulders and traffic signalization 2035 $7,027,000 $7,027,000 ^YOE = Year of Expenditure (fr) = Fredericksburg (sp) = Spotsylvania (st) = Stafford Projects showing $0.00 for Total Cost and Allocation are either fully funded or Developer Projects and do not require funding in the Constrained Plan Page 43

4 Multimodal Improvements In addition to roadway improvements, several multimodal improvements are planned in the 2035 CLRP. These improvements are applicable to the public transit, park and ride, rail, and the bike and pedestrian systems. Bicycle/Pedestrian: The Bicycle and Pedestrian Plan also outlines several planned facilities that will support biking and walking in the George Washington Region. The planned facilities specifically within the project area are listed, by jurisdiction, in Table 3-3. Public Transit: Three new express bus routes, providing three inbound trips in the morning and three outbound trips in the evening are planned. One of the new routes is planned for 2015 and the remaining two are planned for FRED local service is also expected to expand to 109,000 hours of service in 2017 and 122,000 in In total, this accounts for an approximate 50% increase by Despite the planned increase in service hours, a specific service plan has not been identified. Park and Ride: A new park and ride lot is planned for the Celebrate Virginia site, including 800 spaces. The new lot is planned for Rail: VRE service is planned to include two to three additional one-way trips. A new station is also planned for Spotsylvania County. Page 44

5 Table 3-3: FAMPO Constrained Bicycle and Pedestrian Project List in Study Area Bicycle and Pedestrian Planned Infrastructure Location Type Fall Hill Ave Bike/Ped Improvement on Bridge City of Fredericksburg Identified as Barrier, needs Bike/Ped Access Rappahannock River Bank Celebrate Virginia Natural Walking Path Fall Hill Avenue Virginia Central Railway Trail Shared-Use Trail Shared Use Trail Gordon Rd (Smith Station Rd to ) Old Plank Rd (Gordon Rd to Furnace Rd) Shared-Use Trail Shared-Use Trail Spotsylvania County (Fred. CL to Old Plank Rd) Gordon Rd (Smith Station Rd to ) Old Plank Rd (Gordon Rd to Furnace Rd) and Gordon Rd and Salem Church Rd Sidewalks Sidewalks Sidewalks Pedestrian Intersection Improvements Pedestrian Intersection Improvements and Bragg Rd and Taskforce Dr Route 17 (Poplar Rd to Route 1) Pedestrian Intersection Improvements Pedestrian Intersection Improvements Sidewalks Stafford County Warrenton Rd and Celebrate VA Pkwy Warrenton Rd and Berea Church Rd Warrenton Rd and Village Pkwy Belmont Ferry Farm/Celebrate VA Northern Connector Pedestrian Intersection Improvements Pedestrian Intersection Improvements Pedestrian Intersection Improvements Shared-Use Trail 3.3 Traffic Volumes 2035 No-Build Condition This section documents the development of the future year design traffic for the 2035 No-Build scenario. There was a significant amount of coordination between VDOT, FHWA, GWRC, the City of Fredericksburg and Spotsylvania County in developing forecast volumes for the study area. Using a combination of historic growth rates, FAMPO travel demand model output, and professional judgment, 2035 forecast volumes were developed for the arterials ( and Route 17), for I-95 (mainline, proposed HOT lanes, and interchange ramps), and for the analyzed intersections. The resulting forecast volumes are discussed below. Detailed methodology and detailed forecast volume information can be found in Appendix B - No-Build Conditions (Page B-1). The No-Build scenario includes those projects within the study area that are listed and fully funded in the FAMPO 2035 Constrained Long Range Plan (see Table 3-2) or Page 45

6 VDOT s Six-Year Plan. The No-Build Scenario does not include the proposed Jackson Gateway Interchange (south of Route 1) since it is not funded for construction in the FAMPO 2035 Constrained Long Range Plan Arterial Roadway Traffic Volumes & Route 17 The 2008 Existing Conditions volumes on and Route 17 were grown to 2035 No-Build forecast volumes using the developed growth rates. Growth rates along the arterials varied to the east and west of the interchanges at both and Route 17. The growth rates and projected future volumes are shown below in Table 3-4. Table 3-4: Arterial Growth Rates and Resulting Volumes Roadway / Location 2008 Existing Conditions Daily Volume Average 2035 No-Build Forecast Daily Volumes Annual Eastbound Westbound Total Growth Rate Eastbound Westbound Total VA 3 - East of I-95 Interchange 30,800 25,300 56, % 39,100 32,100 71,400 VA 3 - West of I-95 Interchange 43,600 39,500 83, % 61,300 55, ,800 Roadway / Location 2008 Existing Conditions Daily Volume Average 2035 No-Build Forecast Daily Volumes Annual Northbound Southbound Total Growth Rate Northbound Southbound Total US 17 - East of I-95 Interchange 18,200 21,600 39, % 25,600 30,300 55,900 US 17 - West of I-95 Interchange 36,800 41,700 78, % 61,600 69, ,500 Total may not sum correctly due to rounding I-95 and Ramp Traffic Volumes 2035 No-Build forecast volumes were developed for the I-95, including the existing general purpose lanes and the proposed I-95 HOT lanes. The total I-95 volume was grown to 2035 and then HOT lanes volumes were determined using FAMPO travel demand model output. The HOT lane volumes shown are consistent through the study area between the interchange and the Route 17 Interchange. The status of the HOT lanes project is undetermined at this time; however for this study it is assumed access to and from the HOT lanes would occur north of Route 17 or south of. The resulting I-95 volumes are shown below in Table 3-5. Page 46

7 Table 3-5: I-95 Growth Rate and Resulting 2035 No-Build Volumes Roadway / Location Average Annual Growth 2008 Existing Conditions Daily Volume 2035 No-Build Conditions Daily Volume Rate Northbound Southbound Total Northbound Southbound General Purpose Northbound HOT Lanes General Purpose Southbound HOT Lanes Total I-95 - South of Exit 130 (VA 3) 58,000 57, , % 2.5% 90,500 6,700 84,100 11, ,800 I-95 - At River 75,800 76, , % 2.1% 116,200 6, ,800 11, ,300 I-95 - North of Exit 133 (US 17) 68,300 66, , % 2.1% 101,100 6,700 92,900 11, ,300 Total may not sum correctly due to rounding The I-95 interchange ramps at and Route 17 were grown with the same growth rate as the arterial to which they belong. The interchange ramps, to and from the west of I-95, were grown at 1.5%, annually. The ramps, to and from the east of I-95, were grown at 1.0%. The ramps at US 17, to and from the west of I-95, were grown at 2.5%, while the ramp to and from the east were grown at 1.5%. The resulting ramp volumes are shown in Figure 3-2B and Figure 3-2C Intersection Traffic Volumes The intersections analyzed in the existing conditions were grown to 2035 forecast volumes by the same growth rates as their respective arterials. All movements, major and minor, were grown at the same growth rate at each intersection. The intersections along, west of I- 95, were grown at 1.5%, annually, while the intersections to the east of I-95 were grown at 1.0%, annually. The intersections along Route 17 were grown at 2.5% for those intersections west of I-95 and at 1.5% for those east of the interstate. Resulting 2035 No-Build intersection turn movement volumes are shown in Figure 3-2: 2035 No-Build Traffic Volumes Figures 3-2A through Figure 3-2C. Volumes are rounded to the nearest ten for peak hour volumes. Page 47

8 3! 1! 2 ASHLEY FARMS DR! 3 KENNETT CT STONEHENGE DR 10 (170) 40 (160) 150 (170) 2270 (1270) 500 (260) 2170 (1340) 100 (110) WALES DR Harrison Rd Route 620 STERLING DR Shopping Center 80 (170) Gordon Rd Route (20) 10 (40) 70 (40) 10 (20) 2870 (1740) 10 (20) SETTER DR 240 (270) 80 (130) 1/ 3 Route 610 / (240) 630 (350) Five Mile Rd Ext. 80 (370) 860 (2300) 30 (80) 20 (40) HEATHROW DR WOODWIND DR 900 (2490) 170 (840) 10 (40) TEESIDE DR MULLINS CT 10 (80) 980 (3190) 50 (260) 20 (40) 470 (330) OLD PLANK RD Plank Rd Plank Rd Plank Rd KNIGHT CT CHAPEL HEIGHTS RD SPOTSWOOD FURNACE RD GLENHAVEN DR DREW LN ANDORA DR MIDDLETON DR CORTER AVE WILLOW WOODS DR GRANTWOOD DR ABNER CT OSBORNE DR MCCLAIN ST KENNY LN SHARON RD FALCON RIDGE DR?ê RENO LN CEDAR HOLW PADDOCK PL COLLEENS WAY?s STECKLER WAY BIG BEN BLVD GOVERNORS GRANT LN ARBOR GLEN DR BRADENTON CT MILL RD ENCHANTED CT DAHLIA LN SPOTSWOOD FURNACE LN MAJESTIC CT BUCKMINSTER CT CEDAR CREST DR FERGUSON DR CROWN JEWELS CT KATELYN DR PLANK RD BUTTERCUP LN GARDENIA DR TURKEY RUN DR WEEDON DR 1 HARRISON RD WYE OAKS LN?t GOBBLER CT BELLEFLOWER LN HANEY LN?{ HIDDEN HILLS LN GORDON RD GORDON RD 2 BANNER PLANTATION DR ISLE OF PINES BLVD DAPPER CT?j MEDALLION DR?Ô WRIGHTS LN BELLAIRE BLUFFS LN DOGWOOD AVE FIVE MILE RD N DICKINSON DR CAMPUS DR KENDALE LN TRENCH HILL LN TOWERING OAK RD SINGLE OAK RD 3 CHERRY RD GALWAY LN ARCHERY RD?á KUBE LN KILARNEY DR RODGERS LN MURPHY CT FRYE LN PLANK RD HEALTH CENTER LN CAROL LN MACNAMARA DR RIVER RD WHEATON RD SHERATON HILLS DR WATSON LN CALHOUN DR BERNSTEIN RD BUCK HALL LN BRANCHWATER ST STONEWALL RIDGE CT MICHAEL CT RUTHERFORD DR MCKINLEY DR KENNEDY LN CHEWNING LN HEATHERBROOK CT CANDLEWOOD ST [34400] (3530) (2110]) [45200] QUANN CT BUXLEY CT WOODSIDE DR BONNIE BRAE CT JACKSON RD CHAMBER DR SALEM CHURCH RD BELLE MEADE CT Ü PAIGE LN EDNAS LN WOODS HVN OLD SALEM CHURCH RD HEATHERSTONE DR?ê GLAZEBROOK DR JUNIE CT MICKEY CT CLOVER DR WILBURN DR RANDY CT RIVER RD DEWBERRY DR NORRIS DR BLAKE DR DOUGLAS ST Figure 3-2A: 2035 No-Build Conditions Peak Hour Volumes Legend # Analyzed Intersection Roadways Corporate Boundary Streams Water Wetlands 2035 Volumes AM Volume (PM Volume) [Daily Volume] 2,000 1, ,000 Feet Note: Intersection volumes may not exactly balance between intersection due to driveways and variance in actual peak hour (worst case analyzed) Page 48

9 ! 4! 5! 6 BUCK HALL LN MICHAEL CT STONEWALL RIDGE CT RUTHERFORD DR CHEWNING LN HEATHERBROOK CT KENNEDY LN 290 (680) 60 (170) 170 (160) 410 (300) 3560 (2650) 190 (250) 110 (510) 20 (250) 360 (440) 3600 (2250) 70 (140) 80 (430) 10 (20) 200 (380) 3980 (2530) 20 (20) Route (140) Mall Dr CANDLEWOOD ST QUANN CT BUXLEY CT BELLE MEADE CT WOODSIDE DR BONNIE BRAE CT Mall Ct Bragg Rd 90 (260) 40 (130) Central Park Blvd 150 (170) 10 (110) 40 (140) Carl D Silver Pkwy 480 (1170) 220 (550) 20 (30) 10 (10) 100 (350) 1540 (3490) 200 (170) 40 (90) 1630 (3280) 130 (680) CHAMBER DR PAIGE LN EDNAS LN WOODS HVN HEATHERSTONE DR 630 (1300) 1510 (3770) 30 (50) 30 (40) Plank Rd Plank Rd Plank Rd Figure 3-2B: 2035 No-Build Conditions Peak Hour Volumes CLOVER DR WILBURN DR NORRIS DR BLAKE DR MILESTONE DR N ROCK CREEK DR Ü BRIMSTONE DR DEWBERRY DR?ê MAPLE GROVE DR Legend # RIVER RD MEEKINS DR [48600] (4430) 1920 VENTURA LN AMOS LN 4160 (3200) [59600] RIVER RD HERITAGE HILLS CIR PLANK RD?ª 4 BRAGG RD PLANK RD CHURCHILL DR LINCOLN DR GREENGATE AVE VIDALIA ST GREENGATE RD SPOTSYLVANIA MALL DR BRAGG RD Analyzed Intersection Roadways Corporate Boundary SALEM DR 5 CARL D SILVER PKWY SILVER ST MARKET ST CARL D SILVER PKWY TRADE ST FALL HILL AVE CENTRAL PARK BLVD COMMERCE ST 6 Streams Water Wetlands [95630] (7090) 3750 [3350] (270) 150 HOSPITALITY LN & N & O & P BRISCOE LN RETAIL DR [121380] (9740) 4490 &M GATEWAY BLVD 5850 (5540) [97180] & I I-95 S I-95 N!"e$ & L & K & J Iz COWAN BLVD BRAGG HILL DR CURTIS ESTS 8870 (6430) [122900] DENTON CIR ROFFMAN RD HERITAGE PARK IDLEWILD BLVD HARRIS CT HICKOCK CIR 7 SENECA TER 2035 Volumes IVANHOE CT ALTOONA DR GREAT OAKS LN HAYS ST WESTON LN OAKWOOD ST PLANK RD APACHE TER MATOCA CT CRESTVIEW WAY PAWNEE DR IDLEWILD BLVD ALBERT REYNOLDS DR PRESERVE LN HICKORY CT POPLAR DR?ê MANOR DR CENTURY OAK DR CARRIAGE LN [30400] (2250) 1620 AM Volume (PM Volume) [Daily Volume] 2,000 1, ,000 Feet GREYSTONE CT (2190) [34200] HUNT LN FOREST VLG CADMUS DR BELMONT PL MANOR CT WOODLAND RD WESTWOOD DR GREENWAY DR DOWNMAN PL GENTHER LN HIGHLAND RD JUBAL EARLY DR MARY WASHINGTON BLVD BEVERLY DR Iq KEENELAND RD JEFFERSON DAVIS HWY LINDEN AVE NORMANDY AVE SAM PERRY BLVD POWHATAN ST JEFF DAVIS SERVICE RD S ARMORY DR JEFF DAVIS SERVICE RD N DANDRIDGE ST SPOTSYLVANIA AVE volumes include Hot Lane volumes NB: 2460 (0) [6700] SB: 0 (2480) [11550] GREENBRIER DR VILLAGE LN SNOWDEN ST STAFFORD AVE ALUM SPRING RD Iq POWHATAN ST THORNTON ST RIVERSIDE DR AUGUSTINE AVE SEACOBECK ST RAPPAHANNOCK AVE Note: Intersection volumes may not exactly balance between intersection due to driveways and variance in actual peak hour (worst case analyzed) PAYNE ST! 7 HANSON AVE COLLEGE AVE ROWE ST DANDRIDGE ST BRENT ST ROYSTON ST BUCKNER ST FALL HILL AVE! 8 HIGH ST WOODFORD ST FITZHUGH ST HANOVER ST LEE DR LAFAYETTE BLVD WALLACE ST MADISON ST COLONY RD LEE DR WELLFORD ST AMARET ST 30 (5) 5 (5) 40 (40) 1710 (1970) 430 (600) DALE ST GROVE AVE MONCURE ST FRANKLIN ST 20 (20) 0 (10) 40 (80) 1990 (2100) 20 (50) CHARLES ST BRIDGEWATER ST Gateway Blvd Route 693 CENTRAL RD FORBES ST Ramseur St 10 (10) Altoona Dr ELM ST CAROLINE ST PROGRESS ST GERMANIA ST HUNTER ST 310 (400) 10 (5) BUNKER HILL ST Mahone Dr 70 (50) MONROE ST VIRGINIA AVE STUART ST MARY BALL ST SUNKEN RD KENMORE AVE 140 (280) LITTLEPAGE ST SUMMIT ST PELHAM ST MAURY ST 50 (100) 10 (10) PRINCESS ANNE ST CORNELL ST 40 (40) SYLVANIA AVE CHARLES ST GREEN ST SUNKEN RD WASHINGTON AVE WILLIAM ST BROMPTON ST MARYE ST KIRKLAND BLVD WILLIS ST YOUNG ST BLUE & GRAY PKWY Plank Rd FORD ST PITT ST WINCHESTER ST LAFAYETTE BLVD TYLER ST HAWKE ST LEWIS ST MERCER ST SHEPHERD ST LUDLOW ST HERNDON ST CANAL ST DOUGLAS ST Plank Rd RAMP PEAK HOUR VOLUMES & I &J & K & L & M &N & O & P AM (PM) [DAILY] 10 (0) 1800 (1820) 140 (290) 20 (30) 1560 (2180) 40 (40) 340 (300) [5000] 2700 (1260) [28300] 390 (690) [9200] 1050 (620) [11500] 860 (3160) [31700] 180 (340) [4100] 510 (720) [9700] 450 (890) [11500] Page 49 DAY ST WEEDON ST

10 ANVIL RD! 9! 10! 11 ROCKY RUN RD Route 17 ENGLISH HILLS DR 80 (60) 2840 (3380) 80 (10) Commuter Parking Lot GROVE LN Route 17 WALNUT GROVE DR 40 (20) 2960 (3890) 40 (30) Hardee's Access SCOTTS FORD LN Route (10) 2950 (3660) 30 (70) Sanford Dr Route 670 JOHNSON MILL RDG GREENBANK RD 0 (280) 0 (0) 90 (530) 30 (10) 100 (30) SANFORD FERRY CT 30 (20) 10 (5) 10 (10) 10 (10) 390 (1350) 60 (100) 10 (5) 100 (440) BLACKBERRY LN 360 (140) 3260 (3160) 170 (110) Warrenton Rd 20 (30) 5 (10) 50 (60) 90 (50) 70 (110) 60 (30) 3670 (3700) 30 (20) MARCH CT Falls Run Dr Route 618 McLane Dr Warrenton Rd Stanstead Rd Route (140) 3620 (2960) 480 (530) Warrenton Rd Figure 3-2C: 2035 No-Build Conditions Peak Hour Volumes GOLDCUP DR TROTTER LN NATCHEZ LN LONG POINT DR HYANNIS PL AMBROSE LN CASTLE HILL DR Ü Legend # MONTERA AVE CELEBRATE VA PKWY PULTE DR BATTERY POINT DR Analyzed Intersection Roadways Corporate Boundary DENISON ST MENDOTA WAY LUDINGTON LN CARL D SILVER PKWY TABLE BLUFF DR COMMERCE PKWY?Ï CARL D SILVER PKWY Streams Water Wetlands CAPITAL AVE THELMA LN PAUL LN POWELL LN ENGLAND RUN LN 3,000 (3,450) [50,300]!"e$ Iz [53,600] (3,540) 3,320 9 HEWITT LN [121,380] (9,740) 4,490 Iz IRAS LN SANFORD DR NELMS CIR 10 (6,430) [122,900] 8,870 RIVERSIDE PKWY BAKERSFIELD LN 2035 Volumes MCLANE DR JONES LN SIMPSON RD EXIT 95N TO WARRENTON RD 17 KRIEGER LN 11 WARRENTON RD & F & H & G & A SOUTH GATEWAY DR & B EXIT 95N TO WARRENTON N17 MUSSELMAN RD AM Volume (PM Volume) [Daily Volume] 2,000 1, ,000 Feet & E & C & D THOMAS LN BELLOWS AVE MANOR LN 12 SLEDGEHAMMER DR ENT 95N FROM WARRENTON 17 OLDE FORGE DR HORNETS NEST LN BLAISDELL LN ETHYL LN I{ [104,470] (8,330) 4,130 RV PKWY 7,790 (5,280) 1,600 (2,720) [33,500] [24,800] (1,480) 1,680 QUARLES RD ROBINSON LN!"e$ [107,800] LIMERICK LN INGLESIDE DR volumes include Hot Lane volumes NB: 2460 (0) [6700] SB: 0 (2480) [11550] OLD FALLS RD PIT RD CHRISTIAN CT VIOLAS LN WALTER CIR BEAGLE RD SOLOMON DR LENDALL LN MAGNOLIA CT Note: Intersection volumes may not exactly balance between intersection due to driveways and variance in actual peak hour (worst case analyzed) KELLEY RD! 12 PATRICK PL LOCUST ST Route 17 Bus WALL ST DUSTY LN WYNE DR NATALIE WAY BEEJAY DR KELLEY HILL LN GAYLE ST EARLS LN 8 (5) [15] MELCHERS DR 20 (10) 0 (5) 10 (10) 1570 (2670) 70 (120) LIMOX LN HENDERSON ST RIVERSIDE DR TRUSLOW RD / 1 3 Short St Route (5) / 1 3 CHAPS LN EDISON LN WASHINGTON ST Driveway / 1 3 / (110) 0 (5) CARRIAGE HILL DR CAMBRIDGE ST 20 (40) 5 (5) 1650 (1450) 20 (20) PEGS LN CARTER ST KING ST SCHOOLER LOOP FORBES ST BUTLER RD RIVER RD Warrenton Rd CROWN LN FAITH DR RAMP PEAK HOUR VOLUMES & A 170 (250) [4100] B 1020 (570) [11100] & & & & & AM (PM) [DAILY] C 2510 (1930) [30600] D 580 (460) [8500] COE LN COLONIAL AVE E 700 (790) [12500] F 150 (200) [2900] & G 480 (660) [8900] HANSON & H AVE 1390 (2660) [35400] Page 50

11 No-Build Conditions Quality of Service This section presents the 2035 No-Build conditions analysis of the key intersections, I-95, and I-95 Ramp Junctions that were analyzed for the 2008 Existing Conditions (See Chapter 2) Intersection Analysis 2035 No-Build Conditions The AM and PM peak hours at each intersection were analyzed to identify expected deficiencies without any additional improvements other than those currently planned and programmed (discussed in Section 3.2). It is also assumed that the traffic signal timings and phases would be optimized by As done in the existing conditions chapter, a brief discussion of each intersection is provided to identify the main causes of any deficiency. A summary of the 2035 No-Build level of service (LOS), compared to 2008 Existing Conditions, is shown below in Table 3-6. Individual movements operating at LOS E or F are identified in Table 3-6 and considered operating at a poor level of service. Detailed HCS+ analysis reports are presented in Appendix B No-Build Conditions (Page B-25). Intersection #1 ( & Harrison Rd / Shopping Center): The intersection is expected to operate at LOS C during both peak periods. The minor approach left turns are expected to operate at a LOS E during the AM peak hour. During the PM peak hour, the eastbound and westbound left turns are expected to operate at LOS E or F as will the minor approaches. Intersection #2 ( & Gordon Rd): Overall the intersection is expected to operate at LOS E and LOS F during the AM and PM peak hours respectively. The eastbound thru, westbound left and northbound right movements are expected to be LOS E or F in the AM and PM peak hours. The northbound left turn is also expected to operate with a LOS F in the PM peak hour. Intersection #3 ( & Five Mile Rd Ext.): Overall the intersection is expected to operate at LOS F during the AM and PM peak hours. The minor approaches at this intersection are generally expected to operate at LOS E or F in both AM and PM peak hours. The eastbound thru movement is expected to also operate at LOS F during the AM peak hour. Intersection #4 ( & Bragg Rd): Overall the intersection is expected to operate at LOS F during the AM and PM peak hours even with the planned improvements. The minor approaches at this intersection are currently and are expected to operate at LOS F in both the AM and PM peak hours. The EB thru and WB left turns experience high delay in the AM peak hour, while the EB left and WB left and thru is expected to operate at LOS F in the PM peak hour. Intersection #5 ( & Mall Dr / Central Park Blvd): Overall the intersection is expected to operate at LOS F during the AM and PM peak hours. The eastbound thru, northbound right and southbound right turn movements are expected to operate at LOS F in the AM peak hour. In the PM peak hour, the entire northbound and southbound approaches are operating at LOS F. In addition, the eastbound thru and left and westbound left turns are experiencing high delay in the PM peak hour. Page 51

12 Intersection #6 ( & Mall Ct / Carl D Silver Pkwy): Overall the intersection is expected to operate at LOS F during the PM peak hour. In the AM peak hour, the northbound and southbound minor approaches are both operating at LOS E or F. During the PM peak hour, the eastbound thru and right movements are the only two movements that are operating better than LOS E; they are expected to operate at LOS A. Intersection #7 ( & Gateway Blvd / Ramseur St): Overall the intersection is expected to operate at LOS C and LOS D during the AM and PM peak hours respectively. Westbound left turns are the only movement operating worse than LOS D in the AM peak hour. The PM peak hour worsens, as the eastbound, westbound, and northbound left turn movements and northbound right turns are operating at LOS E or F. Intersection #8 ( & Altoona Dr / Mahone Dr): The AM peak hour is expected to be free from any significant deficiencies at this intersection. The eastbound left, westbound thru, northbound left and southbound left, thru, and right movements are expected to experience operational problems in the PM peak hour with the overall intersection operating at LOS E. Intersection #9 (Route 17 & Commuter Parking Lot / Falls Run Dr): Overall the intersection is expected to operate at LOS E and LOS F during the AM and PM peak hours respectively. The eastbound and westbound minor approaches are expected to remain at LOS E and F in the AM and PM peak hours. The Route 17 WB/NB left and thru movements and the Route 17 EB/SB left turns are expected to operate at LOS F during both peak hours. Intersection #10 (Route 17 & Hardee's Access / McLane Dr): Overall the intersection is expected to operate at LOS B and LOS F during the AM and PM peak hours respectively. The minor approaches are expected to operate at LOS E or F for both peak periods. The Route 17 WB/NB left and EB/SB left turns are expected to operate at LOS E or F during both peak hours. The Route 17 EB/SB thru movement is also expected to operate at LOS F during the PM peak hour. Intersection #11 (Route 17 & Sanford Dr): Overall the intersection is expected to operate at LOS F during the AM and PM peak hours. All of the minor northbound and southbound approach movements are currently operating at LOS E or F in the AM peak hour. The Route 17 EB/SB left and thru and WB/NB left turn movements are expected to also be LOS F in the AM peak hour. All approaches are expected to operate at LOS F with extremely high delays during the PM peak hour. Intersection #12 (Route 17 & Short St / Driveway): Overall the intersection is expected to operate at LOS C and LOS F during the AM and PM peak hours respectively. The major movements at this intersection are expected to operate at LOS C or better in the AM peak hour. The northbound left/thru shared lane is expected to operate at LOS F during the AM peak hour. During the PM peak hour, the Route 17 EB/SB left-thru shared lane and the northbound leftthru shared lane are expected to operate at a LOS F. With the exception of a few instances (due to traffic signal optimization), the 2035 No-Build intersection level of service and delay are expected to worsen because of the increase of traffic along the arterials and cross streets. Even with optimizing the traffic signal timings and phases there are many capacity deficiencies at these intersections under the 2035 No-Build scenario. Page 52

13 Table 3-6: 2035 No-Build Intersection LOS Summary (All results from HCS) 2008 Existing Conditions 2035 No-Build Conditions % Difference from Existing Intersection # Intersection AM Peak Hour Intersection LOS Delay (s) Intersection LOS PM Peak Hour Delay (s) Intersection LOS 1 VA 3 & Harrison Rd / Shopping Center C 33.9 D 38.3 C 32.7 AM Peak Hour Delay (s) Movements with LOS E or F - NB Left - SB Left Intersection LOS Delay (s) C 34.0 PM Peak Hour Movements with LOS E or F - EB Left - WB Left - NB Left, Thru, Right - SB Left, Right AM Peak Hour PM Peak Hour -3.5% -11.2% 2 VA 3 & Gordon Rd F 91.4 D 48.6 E EB Thru - WB Left - NB Right F EB Thru - WB Left - NB Left, Right -12.6% 106.8% 3 VA 3 & Five Mile Rd Ext. F E 76.1 F EB Thru - WB Left - NB Right - SB Left/Thru F EB Left - NB Left/Thru, Right - SB Left/Thru, Right 9.4% 30.2% 4 VA 3 & Bragg Rd E 78.7 F 92.3 F VA 3 & Mall Dr / Central Park Blvd B 19.1 F F VA 3 & Mall Ct / Carl D Silver Pkwy B 17.1 D 50.5 D EB Thru - WB Left - NB Left, Thru, Right - SB Left, Thru, Right - EB Thru - NB Thru, Right - SB Right - NB Left/Thru, Right - SB Left, Thru, Right F F F EB Left - WB Left, Thru - NB Left, Thru, Right - SB Left, Thru, Right - EB Left, Thru - WB Left - NB Left, Thru, Right - SB Left, Thru, Right - EB Left - WB Left, Thru, Right - NB Left/Thru, Right - SB Left, Thru, Right 47.0% 58.6% 514.1% 58.2% 143.9% 131.3% 7 VA 3 & Gateway Blvd / Ramseur St B 15.2 C 27.5 C WB Left D VA 3 & Altoona Dr / Mahone Dr A 7.8 B 12.9 C 28.5 None E US 17 & Commuter Parking Lot / Falls Run Dr C 20.6 E 55.7 E US 17 & Hardee's Access / McLane Dr A 5.6 A 7.3 B US 17 & Sanford Dr F 93.9 F F EB Left/Thru, Right - WB Left, Thru, Right - WB/NB Left, Thru - EB/SB Left - EB Left/Thru, Right - WB Left, Thru, Right- WB/NB Left, Thru - EB/SB Left - EB/SB Left, Thru - WB/NB Left - NB Left, Thru, Right - SB Left, Thru, Right F F 81.9 F EB Left - WB Left - NB Left, Right - EB Left - WB Thru - NB Left - SB Left/Thru/Right - EB Left/Thru, Right - WB Left, Thru, Right - WB/NB Left, Thru - EB/SB Left, Thru - EB Left/Thru, Right - WB Left, Thru, Right'- '- WB/NB Left - EB/SB Left, Thru - EB/SB Left, Thru - WB/NB Left, Thru - NB Right - SB Left, Thru, Right 60.5% 61.5% 265.4% 379.1% 251.9% 173.2% 108.9% % 107.6% 10.8% 12 US 17 & Short St / Driveway C 25.2 E 65.8 C NB Left/Thru F EB Left/Thru - NB Left/Thru, Right -13.5% 52.1% Note: Intersections 1-8 major movement is EB-WB; Intersections 9-12, major movement is WB/NB-EB/SB due to the diagonal alignment of Route 17. Minor approaches at Intersections 1-8, is NB-SB. Minor approaches at intersections 9-10 is EB-WB. Level of service is from HCS software. Page 53

14 3.4.2 I-95 and Ramp Junction Analysis 2035 No-Build Conditions 2035 No-Build level of service analyses were also performed for the Weekday AM / PM peak hours for northbound and southbound I-95 segments and at ramp junctions (merge, diverge, and weave) in the study area using HCS+ Ramp Junction software, HCS+ Weaving Analysis software, CORSIM micro-simulation software, and manual calculations from Highway Capacity Manual methodologies. The 2035 No-Build traffic forecasts developed in Section 3.3 were used in the analyses. Findings for the mainline and ramp analyses are discussed below and shown in Figure 3-3. Detailed HCS+ mainline and ramp junction analysis reports are presented in the Appendix B - No-Build Conditions (starting on Page B-52). Northbound I-95 By Year 2035, the majority of northbound I-95 mainline segments and ramp junctions are expected to operate at a poor level of service (LOS E or LOS F). The mainline segment south of the interchange, operating at LOS C in the AM peak hour, is the only I-95 segment to operate at an acceptable level of service in either the AM or PM peak hour. The only two ramp junctions expected to operate at tolerable levels of service in the AM and PM peak hour are the I-95 northbound diverge to eastbound and the Route 17 WB/NB merge to the I-95 NB C-D Road. Southbound I-95 All of the mainline segments and ramp junctions in the southbound direction are expected to operate at LOS C or D in the AM peak hour. The PM peak hour is expected to experience poor levels of service (LOS E or F) for the majority of the study area. The southbound I-95 weave segment at the interchange and the eastbound to SB I-95 merge are both expected to operate at LOS C in the PM peak hour. The southbound I-95 mainline segment south of is expected to operate at LOS D in the PM peak hour. As can be seen from the analysis, I-95 delay and congestion in 2035 is expected to worsen when compared to the 2008 existing conditions. The 2035 demand exceeds the capacity of the mainline between the and Route 17 Interchanges. The worst congestion is expected to remain in the northbound direction during the AM peak hour and the southbound direction during the PM Peak hour corresponding to the heavy commuting patterns between and Route 17 and between Fredericksburg area and Northern Virginia. The heaviest volume ramps all exceed their capacity. These include the EB to SB on-ramp and NB to WB off-ramp at Route 17 and the SB to WB off-ramp and EB to NB on-ramp at. Due to the heavy mainline volumes and short weave distances the majority of the ramps experience poor levels of service No-Build Conditions CORSIM Analysis CORSIM micro-simulation analysis was again performed on the I-95 and on the Route 3 and Route 17 interchanges. CORSIM analysis results for I-95 and Ramp Junctions were generated for the same locations as those completed with HCS (Figure 3-3). Note that the discrepancies in the densities and speeds are a result of the differences of the functionality of the software. The results of the CORSIM network are shown in Table 3-7. Page 54

15 Southbound I-95 & Ramp Analysis AM Peak Hour 2035 No-Build Conditions PM Peak Hour Roadway Location Analysis Type Density (pc/mi/ln) Speed (mph) Level of Service (LOS) Density (pc/mi/ln) Speed (mph) Level of Service (LOS) I-95 SB Route 17 Interchange Ramps I-95 SB Rest Area I-95 SB Interchange Ramps I-95 SB North of Route 17 Interchange Segment D F I-95 SB diverge to Route 17 NB D C F Route 17 NB Merge to I-95 SB - Weave I-95 SB diverge to Route 17 S B - Weave Route 17 S B merge to I-95 SB W-3 M C D E F South of Route 17 Interchange (North of Rappahannock River) Segment D F Rest Area - Diverge D D F Rest Area - Merge M D F North of Interchange Segment D F I-95 SB Diverge to W B D D F W B Merge to I-95 SB - Weave I-95 SB diverge to E B - Weave W C C E B Merge to I-95 SB M C C South of Interchange Segment C D Northbound I-95 & Ramp Analysis AM Peak Hour 2035 No-Build Conditions PM Peak Hour Roadway Location Analysis ID Density (pc/mi/ln) Speed (mph) Level of Service (LOS) Density (pc/mi/ln) Speed (mph) Level of Service (LOS) I-95 NB Interchange Ramps I-95 I-95 Route 17 Interchange Ramps I-95 South of Interchange Segment C E I-95 NB Diverge to E B D C D E B Merge to I-95 NB - Weave I-95 NB diverge to W B - Weave W B Merge to I-95 NB W-1 M F F F F North of Interchange (South of Rappahannock River) Segment F F South of Route 17 Interchange (North of Rappahannock River) Segment F F I-95 NB diverge to I-95 C/D Roadway D F F I-95 C/D Roadway diverge to Route 17 B us SB D F F Route 17 S B Merge to I-95 NB - Weave W-2 F I-95 NB diverge to Route 17 NB - Weave F Route 17 B us NB merge to I-95 C/D Roadway M B B I-95 C/D Roadway merge to I-95 NB M E D North of Route 17 Interchange Segment E E Page 55

16 Table 3-7: CORSIM 2035 No-Build I-95 and Ramp Junction Analysis Summary Northbound I-95 & Ramp Analysis AM Peak Hour 2035 No Build PM Peak Hour Roadway Link Location Analysis ID Throughput (VPH) Density (pc/mi/ln) Speed (mph) Throughput (VPH) Density (pc/mi/ln) Speed (mph) I-95 NB Interchange Ramps I-95 I-95 Route 17 Interchange Ramps I-95 (2,1) South of Interchange Segment (1,16) I-95 NB Diverge to EB D (13,14) EB Merge to I-95 NB diverge - Weave W (19,6) WB Merge to I-95 NB M (24,30) to Route 17 Segment (27,33) to Route 17 Segment (33,28) I-95 NB diverge to I-95 C/D Roadway D (56,35) I-95 C/D Roadway diverge to Route 17 Bus SB D (40,43) Route 17 SB Merge to I-95 NB diverge - Weave W (45,50) Route 17 Bus NB merge to I-95 C/D Roadway M (37,51) I-95 C/D Roadway merge to I-95 NB M (51,52) North of Route 17 Interchange Segment Southbound I-95 & Ramp Analysis AM Peak Hour 2035 No Build PM Peak Hour Roadway Link Location Analysis Type Throughput (VPH) Density (pc/mi/ln) Speed (mph) Throughput (VPH) Density (pc/mi/ln) Speed (mph) I-95 SB Route 17 Interchange Ramps I-95 SB Rest Area I-95 SB Interchange Ramps I-95 SB (57,58) North of Route 17 Interchange Segment (58,60) I-95 SB diverge to Route 17 NB D (61,65) Route 17 NB Merge to I-95 SB diverge - Weave W (77,72) Route 17 SB merge to I-95 SB M (79,80) Route 17 to Rest Area Segment (81,83) Rest Area - Diverge D (127,84) Rest Area - Merge M (87,88) Rest Area to Segment (88,89) I-95 SB Diverge to WB D (90,93) WB Merge to I-95 SB diverge - Weave W (100,101) EB Merge to I-95 SB M (101,104) South of Interchange Segment Page 56

17 The CORSIM base networks used for the 2008 existing conditions analysis were modified to include the roadway improvements planned for and Route 17 (see Section 3.2). Volumes were updated to reflect the No-Build volumes discussed in Section 3.3. No global parameters or additional default values were changed from those changed during the calibration of the base year model. The CORSIM analysis generally confirms the results from the HCS analysis. The HCS analysis showed long delays at intersections along and Route 17. The CORSIM analysis showed significant queues backing through intersections on and Route 17 particularly in the PM peak hour. The HCS analysis also showed I-95 being over capacity with most ramp junctions failing in both peak periods. The CORSIM analysis also showed breakdown conditions on the I-95 mainline. In addition, CORSIM showed the Route 17 cloverleaf interchange completely paralyzed with no traffic moving due to the high traffic volumes No-Build Conditions - Safety Evaluation In addition to the forecasting of traffic volumes in the study area, the crash data analyzed in the previous chapter was also forecasted to 2035 No-Build Conditions. With the 2035 No-Build Conditions analyzed using the roadway network and infrastructure as it exists today, the key assumption in forecasting future crash totals is using a static crash rate for each of the roadway segments. Using the crash rate developed in the existing conditions crash analysis, the number of projected future crashes was determined by applying the ratio of the 2008 Existing Conditions traffic volumes to the 2035 No-Build traffic volumes to the 2008 Existing Conditions crash data. Table 3-8 shows the existing and projected number of annual crashes for the roadway segments analyzed in the previous chapter. Table 3-8: 2035 No-Build Conditions Roadway Segment Crash Rates Roadway Segment From/To Segment Length (mi) Average Annual Crash Total 2008 ADT Crashes per 100-Million Miles Traveled No- Build ADT Expected 2035 No- Build Average Annual Crash Total VA 3 - Interchange Area Interstate 95 Gateway Blvd to Carl D Silver Pkwy , , through the VA 3 Interchange , , VA 3 to US , , through US 17 Interchange , , US 17 - Interchange Short St to Sanford Dr , , Area 1. VDOT crash database for VA 3 was incomplete for years Only 2008 crash data used 2. Average ADT from the following locations (East of Interchange, West of Interchange, at Weave of Interchange on crossroad) 3. ADT located at I-95 Weave Segment of Interchange 4. Highlighted Crash Rates are higher than the Statewide Average (77 crashes per 100 million VMT for interstates and 148 crashes per 100 million VMT for primary arterials) Page 57

18 As traffic volumes increase in the study area and congestion worsens, total annual crashes are expected to increase. As can be seen when comparing Figures 2-8 and 3-3 and Tables 2-7 and 3-7, densities are expected to increase and travel speeds decrease under the 2035 No-Build condition when compared to the 2008 Existing conditions. It is likely that the crash rate will also increase as higher densities and greater speed differentials between free flow and congested speeds occur. Page 58

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