Latin America Regional Connectivity Update

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1 Latin America Regional Connectivity Update LACNIC 19 Doug Madory, Senior Analyst 10 May 2013

2 Why study Internet structure and growth? We re all seeking higher performance, higher stability, lower cost, lower risk for our global Internet connectivity Cost and latency are largely determined by richness of interconnectivity Some countries attract more Internet growth than others. What tips the balance? 2

3 Where is the growth in Latin America? Let s identify a two possible metrics that might set countries apart from each other: 1. Which countries have high ASN growth? 2. Which countries have dominant largest providers? 3

4 Growth Question 1: Domestic ASNs How deep is the pool of enterprises that speak BGP in a given country? That is, who has the largest number of domestic ASNs? Where are most new domestic ASNs being born in 2013, and why? 4

5 Definition: Domestic Provider ASN 70%+ of worldwide customer base in one country, within the last 2 years Example: Telmex (AS8151) 97% of customers are in Mexico, where AS8151 is domestic provider 1.7% of customers are in Guatemala, where AS8151 is international provider 1% of customers are in Nicaragua, where AS8151 is international provider..and so forth. 5

6 ASN Growth Over Previous 4 years AR BR CL CO CR EC GT MX PA PE UY VE Strong growth in Brazil, Costa Rica, Argentina Moderate in Colombia, Guatemala, Chile, Ecuador, Panama, Peru Stable in Mexico, Uruguay, Venezuela 6

7 Highlight: Brazil growth 340% increase; 488 to 1655 ASNs Every year, Brazil adds 2 Mexicos Pulling away from the rest Already exceeds the rest of LATAM combined Lacks dominant incumbent player Municipal IXPs (PTTs) facilitating significant domestic Internet growth 7

8 Highlight: Costa Rica growth Dramatic rise in ASNs in recent years 2008 Telecom law overhaul yielding results Was a requirement of CAFTA-DR agreement Created telecom regulator: Sutel Ended ICE monopoly 8

9 Highlight: Colombia growth Moderate growth: From 54 to 63 ASNs Newly routed domestic ASNs AS11237 Universidad EAFIT (Medellin) AS16528 Global Crossing Colombia S.A. (Bogota) AS52330 S3WIRELESS COLOMBIA S.A (Bogota) AS52434 RedColsa S.A. (Cali) AS TV Azteca Sucursal (Canta Fe de Bogota) AS Banco de Bogota (Bogota) AS ITELKOM (Bogota) AS Cable Bello TV S.A.S. (Bello) AS Universidad Piloto de Colombia (Bogota) AS University of La Sabana (Chía) 9

10 Highlight: Colombia growth 10

11 Highlight: Mexico growth Domestic AS count unchanged in 4 years Does proximity to US hosting limit growth? Could the coming Mexico IXP foster growth? Will proposed telecom regulation chip away at Telmex/Uninet dominance? Renesys Market Intelligence: Mexico Retail Market 11

12 Highlight: Argentina growth Second largest increase in domestic ASNs (Only behind Brazil) Pulled away from Mexico in past four years 12

13 Highlight: Argentina growth Lacks dominant incumbent player (like Brazil) Legacy duopoly between Telefonica and Telecom Argentina perhaps fading as Telefonica share drops Local IXPs (Cabase) likely facilitating Internet growth 13

14 Highlight: Uruguay Number of routed ASNs unchanged in four years Antel increasing market share State-owned Antel faces no fixed-line competition 14

15 Growth Question 2: Domestic Concentration Who s the largest domestic provider in each country? What s their on-net percentage of the national Internet? How has that changed in the last four years? 15

16 Largest Domestic Provider, Jan 2010 What percentage of the country was on net with the largest domestic provider? Red: more than 70% Grey: 50-70% Green: Less than half CR ICE AS UY Antel AS MX Uninet (Telmex) AS VE CANTV AS PE Movistar AS EC TVCable AS GT Telgua AS PA C&W Panama AS AR Telefonica de Argentina AS CL VTR Banda Ancha AS CO Telmex Colombia AS BR Oi (Telemar) AS

17 Largest Domestic Provider, Feb CR ICE AS UY Antel AS MX Uninet AS VE CANTV AS PE Movistar AS EC TVCable AS GT Telgua AS PA C&W Panama AS AR Telefonica de Argentina AS CL VTR Banda Ancha AS CO Telmex Colombia AS BR Oi (Telemar) AS

18 More alternatives for some, fewer for others Change AR Telefonica de Argentina AS % VE CANTV AS % CL VTR Banda Ancha AS % MX Uninet (Telmex) AS % PE Movistar AS % CR ICE AS % EC TVCable AS % BR Oi (Telemar) AS % PA C&W Panama AS % GT Telgua AS % UY Antel AS % CO Telmex Colombia AS % 18

19 Renesys Western Hemisphere Traceroute Collection Goal is to minimize latency to closest collector worldwide Over 220M daily traces 1.6 million end hosts each day from each site Will form basis for upcoming product under development 19

20 20

21 Fastest Latencies: Miami and Los Angeles 2013 Renesys Corporation LACNOG LACNIC Medellin, 19, Medellin, Colombia Colombia 21

22 Renesys Western Hemisphere Traceroute Collection 22

23 Fastest Latencies from Key Cities 23

24 Conclusions Local IXPs in competitive markets facilitating massive growth in some countries Markets with a dominant incumbent grow slowest Each sub-region of LATAM served best from different hosting locations Will we see an inflection point with Mexico in the near future? 24

25 Thank you!

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