The Macroeconomics of Itaipú:

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1 The Macroeconomics of Itaipú: Measuring the Impact of a Large Fiscal Shock Javier Charotti University of Chicago Banco Central del Paraguay Constantino Hevia Universidad T. di Tella Andy Neumeyer Universidad T. di Tella Banco Central de la República Argentina August, 2017 Note: The opinions expressed in this presentation are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Central Bank of Argentina, nor those of the Central Bank of Paraguay or their boards of directors.

2 The Itaipú Hidroelectric Dam 1 / 44 Charotti-Hevia-Neumeyer Itaipú

3 Satellite view of Itaipu and Ciudad del Este 2 / 44 Charotti-Hevia-Neumeyer Itaipu

4 Satellite view of Itaipu and Ciudad del Este 3 / 44 Charotti-Hevia-Neumeyer Itaipu

5 The Itaipú Binacional Created in the 1970s by the governments of Paraguay and Brazil Each country owns 50 percent of the Binacional and its production Itaipú provides 17 percent of all of Brazil s energy consumption and 70 percent of Paraguay s Brazil buys Paraguay s excess production at negotiated prices The firm borrowed from Brazil to finance the construction of the dam Amount borrowed: about 27 billion USD (GDP in 1974 was 1.2 billion USD) Expected to repay in full by 2023 Construction period: Itaipú begun exporting electricity in / 44 Charotti-Hevia-Neumeyer Itaipú

6 The Construction of Itaipú The course of the seventh biggest river in the world was shifted, as were 50 million tons of earth and rock. The amount of concrete used to build the Itaipú Power Plant would be enough to build 210 football stadiums the size of the Estádio do Maracanã. The iron and steel used would allow for the construction of 380 Eiffel Towers. The volume of excavation of earth and rock in Itaipu is 8.5 times greater than that of the Channel Tunnel and the volume of concrete is 15 times greater. Around forty thousand people worked in the construction. Ciudad del Este was built as a support town for the construction of the dam Itaipú is one of the most expensive objects ever built. 5 / 44 Charotti-Hevia-Neumeyer Itaipú

7 Itaipú as a Macroeconomic Impulse Investment in Itaipú Government Expenditure with no Taxes Percent of trend GDP Itaipu investment Electricity exports Large transitory shock to government expenditure in non-tradable goods Almost 12% of GDP in 1979 Financing: No taxes FDI from Brazil, repaid in kind Paraguay exports electricity to Brazil after 1984 at negotiated prices. 17% of GDP in Investment data on NT within Paraguay constructed from company records 6 / 44 Charotti-Hevia-Neumeyer Itaipú

8 An Itaipú Business Cycle? Does the Itaipú impulse explain the business cycle in the late 70s and 80s? What is the role of TFP or other impulses? Itaipú investment (percent of trend GDP) Itaipú investment (left axis) Tradable output (right axis) Non-tradable output (right axis) GDP (right axis) Percentage deviation from trend / 44 Charotti-Hevia-Neumeyer Itaipú

9 The Relative Price of Non-Traded Goods Relative price Non-Tradable / Tradable (1975=1) Consumer/Wholesale Construction/Manufactures Services/Goods CPI/(CPI * E) Note: Three measures of the relative price of non-traded goods. Consumer Price Index/Wholesale Price Index, Implicit Price Deflator of Construction over Manufacturing, Implicit Price Deflator of Services over Goods in national accounts excluding electricity Itaipu investment (percent of trend GDP) 8 / 44 Charotti-Hevia-Neumeyer Itaipú

10 The Relative Price of Non-Traded Goods How does the increase in the demand for non-traded goods affect its relative price? Why does the relative price of construction and services fall? Relative price Non-Tradable / Tradable (1975=1) Consumer/Wholesale Construction/Manufactures Services/Goods CPI/(CPI * E) Itaipu investment (percent of trend GDP) 9 / 44 Charotti-Hevia-Neumeyer Itaipú

11 A Model of the Macroeconomics Itaipú Small open economy with incomplete capital markets Two sector neoclassical growth model with sector specific capital Traded goods Non-traded goods Itaipú Investment is an exogenous process that uses non-traded goods in the resource constraint C N,t + I N,t + I Itaipu t = Y N,t Electricity exports to Brazil are an exogenous process akin to an endowment of traded goods, Q t, C T,t + I T,t + D t = D t r t + Y T,t + Q t Itaipú capital does not yield capital in other production functions Productivity shocks in each sector 10 / 44 Charotti-Hevia-Neumeyer Itaipú

12 Modeling Itaipú Shocks We model Itaipú shocks as an auto-regressive process [ ] [ ] [ ] I Itaipu t ρi 0 I Itaipu = t 1 + ɛ Q t 0 ρ It Q Q t 1 In the experiments we feed the model with the true realizations of ɛ It {Q t} shocks induce persistent movements in consumption, labor, and output. Incomplete capital markets Perfect foresight model: work in progress Allows agents to anticipate Itaipú shocks Only present value of {Q t} matters 11 / 44 Charotti-Hevia-Neumeyer Itaipú

13 Preferences and Technology Preferences E 0 β t U (C t, L t) C t is consumption and L t is labor. Cobb-Douglas preferences: t=0 [ C η t (1 L 1 η] 1 σ t) 1 U (C t, L t) =. 1 σ Consumption is a composite of tradable and non-tradable goods C t = [γ 1 θ C θ 1 θ N,t + (1 γ) θ 1 θ 1 ] θ θ 1 C θ T,t. 12 / 44 Charotti-Hevia-Neumeyer Itaipú

14 Preferences and Technology Production functions Tradables: Non-tradables: Y T,t = A 1 α T T,t K α T T,t L1 α T T,t Y N,t = A 1 α N N,t K α N N,t L1 α N N,t. Stocks of capital The stocks of capital are a (CRS) composite of capital goods made of tradable and non-tradable capital goods K T,t = ( ) KN,t T ωt ( ) K T 1 ωt T,t K N,t = ( ) KN,t N ωn ( ) K N 1 ωn T,t Once installed, capital is immobile and remains in the sector until it depreciates. 13 / 44 Charotti-Hevia-Neumeyer Itaipú

15 Preferences and Technology Capital accumulation Four types of capital goods which evolve as K i T,t+1 = (1 δ T )K i T,t + I i T,t Φ T (K i T,t+1, K i T,t) K i N,t+1 = (1 δ N )K i N,t + I i N,t Φ N (K i N,t+1, K i N,t) i = T, N i = T, N Φ T and Φ N are quadratic capital adjustment cost functions Investment Investment made out of tradable goods is allocated to increase the stock of capital used to produce tradables (I T T,t) or non-tradables (I N T,t), I T,t = I T T,t + I N T,t. Likewise for non-tradable investment goods I N,t = I T N,t + I N N,t. 14 / 44 Charotti-Hevia-Neumeyer Itaipú

16 Feasibility Tradable sector C T,t + I T,t + D t = Dt r t + Y T,t + Q t D t is one period debt (in tradables) acquired at time t 1, r t is the implicit interest rate on the bond price (charged by the rest of the world), and Q t is the flow of payments received from the electricity exported to Brazil. Interest rate is ( ) r t = r + φ r e D t+1 D GDP 1 Non-tradable sector C N,t + I N,t + I Itaipu t = Y N,t. Labor allocation L N,t + L T,t = L t. 15 / 44 Charotti-Hevia-Neumeyer Itaipú

17 Exogenous Processes Exogenous impulses evolve as an auto-regressive process I Itaipu t Q t A Nt A Tt = ρ I ρ Q ρ AT ρ AN I Itaipu t 1 Q t 1 A Nt 1 A Tt 1 + ɛ t where ɛ t are independently and normally distributed. 16 / 44 Charotti-Hevia-Neumeyer Itaipú

18 Calibration Set σ = 2. Labor shares α T = 0.48 and α N = 0.62 (National Accounts) Foreign interest rate r = 0.05 and sensitivity parameter φ r = Steady state Debt/Output ratio of 0.4. Depreciation rates δ N and δ T δ N = (half-life structures=25 years) δ T = (half-life equipment and machinery=7 years) Set ω N and ω T so that investment ratios Ī T T /Ī T N = 1 and Ī N T /Ī N N = 1. Set an arbitrary value for the relative price of non-tradables, p N, and choose ĀT /ĀN to match p N (Balassa-Samuelson). Elasticity of substitution T-NT θ = 0.4 (Neumeyer & Gonzalez-Rozada) Set γ to match share tradables on output ȲT /GDP = 0.52 (Nat. Acc.) Choose η so that L = 1/3 and Ā T so that GDP = / 44 Charotti-Hevia-Neumeyer Itaipú

19 Calibration Parameters of the exogenous stochastic process and capital adjustment cost For Itaipú investment and electricity exports, we run AR(1) regressions I Itaipu t = 0.97I Itaipu t 1 + ɛ It ; ɛ It N(0, ) Q t = 0.99Q t 1 + ɛ Qt ; ɛ Qt N(0, ) Use SMM to estimate productivity parameters ρ AT, ζ AT, ρ AN, ζ AN, and capital adjustment costs φ T and φ N to match 1 First order autocorrelation of tradable output 2 First order autocorrelation of non-tradable output 3 Volatility of tradable output 4 Volatility of non-tradable output 5 Volatility of construction (NT) relative to GDP 6 Volatility of machinery and equipment (T) relative to GDP 18 / 44 Charotti-Hevia-Neumeyer Itaipú

20 Summary of calibrated parameters Description Symbol Value Risk aversion σ 2 Exponent C in utility η 0.46 Share C T in C γ Elasticity substitution T-NT θ 0.4 Foreign interest rate r 0.05 Labor share T α T 0.48 Labor share NT α T 0.62 Depreciation rate T δ T Depreciation rate NT δ N Share NT capital in K T ω T 0.67 Share NT capital in K N ω N 0.67 Persistence A T shock ρ AT Volatility A T shock ζ AT Persistence A N shock ρ AN Volatility A N shock ζ AN Persistence I Itaipu ρ I 0.97 Volatility I Itaipu ζ I Persistence Q t ρ Q 0.99 Volatility Q t ζ Q 0.02 Capital Adjustment T φ T Capital Adjustment NT φ N / 44 Charotti-Hevia-Neumeyer Itaipú

21 Recovering Productivity Shocks Productivity shocks are unobservable: Labor and capital in each sector is unobservable. Employment data only on labor force. Tracks working age population. In the model, output is a function of productivity shocks in each sector, Itaipú shocks, other endogenous state variables, and parameters. ( ) YNt = f ( A Y Nt, A Tt, I Itaipu t, Q t, parameters ) Tt Recover productivity shocks (A Nt, A Tt ) using data for Y Nt, Y Tt, I Itaipu t, and Q t inverting the policy functions in f ( ) 20 / 44 Charotti-Hevia-Neumeyer Itaipú

22 Recovered Productivity Shocks and Output in Each Sector Percentage deviation from trend Tradable output (data - excludes electricity) Tradable productivity (model implied) Non-Tradable output (data) Non-Tradable productivity (model implied) / 44 Charotti-Hevia-Neumeyer Itaipú

23 Realization of shocks Deviation from trend Tradable productivity Non-Tradable productivity Itaipu investment Electricity exports / 44 Charotti-Hevia-Neumeyer Itaipú

24 Macroeconomic Effect of Itaipu Experiments: 1 Feed the model with the shocks to I Itaipu t 2 Feed the model with the shocks to I Itaipu t and Q t. 3 Feed the model with all shocks: A Nt, A Tt, I Itaipu t, Q t 4 Feed the model with all but Q t Results: Output Output of non tradable good expands Output of tradable good contracts Labor Employment increases Labor is reallocated from traded to non-traded goods sector Prices Relative price of non-traded increases Relative price of non-traded decreases once productivity shocks are included Results depend on the elasticity of the labor supply Inelastic labor supply: large effect on output and small effect on prices Elastic labor supply: small effect on output and large effect on prices 23 / 44 Charotti-Hevia-Neumeyer Itaipú

25 Macroeconomic Effect of Itaipu Output: Only Investment Shock I itaipu t Percentage deviation from trend Tradable output (data) Non-Tradable output (data) Tradable output (model) Non-Tradable output (model) / 44 Charotti-Hevia-Neumeyer Itaipú

26 Macroeconomic Effect of Itaipu Labor: Only Investment Shock I itaipu t Percentage deviation from trend Tradable labor (model) Non-Tradable labor (model) Aggregate labor (model) / 44 Charotti-Hevia-Neumeyer Itaipú

27 Macroeconomic Effect of Itaipu Output: Only Endowment Shock Q t Percentage deviation from trend Tradable output (data) Non-Tradable output (data) Tradable output (model only endowment shock) Non-Tradable output (model only endowment shock) / 44 Charotti-Hevia-Neumeyer Itaipú

28 Macroeconomic Effect of Itaipu Labor: Only Endowment Shock Q t 0 Percentage deviation from trend Tradable labor (model only endowment shock) Non-Tradable labor (model only endowment shock) Aggregate labor (model only endowment shock) / 44 Charotti-Hevia-Neumeyer Itaipú

29 Macroeconomic Effect of Itaipu Output: Investment and Endowment Shock: It itaipu and Q t Percentage deviation from trend Tradable output (data) Non-Tradable output (data) Tradable output (only I itaipu t and Q t ) Non-Tradable output (only I itaipu t and Q t ) / 44 Charotti-Hevia-Neumeyer Itaipú

30 Macroeconomic Effect of Itaipu Labor: Investment and Endowment Shock: It itaipu and Q t 30 Percentage deviation from trend Tradable labor (only itaipu) Non-Tradable labor (only itaipu) Aggregate labor (only itaipu) Tradable labor (all shocks) Non-Tradable labor (all shocks) Aggregate labor (all shocks) / 44 Charotti-Hevia-Neumeyer Itaipú

31 Macroeconomic Effect of Itaipu Labor: All shocks but Q t Percentage deviation from trend Tradable labor (all but Qt) Non-Tradable labor (all but Qt) Aggregate labor (all but Qt) Dashed lines: model with all shocks 30 / 44 Charotti-Hevia-Neumeyer Itaipú

32 Model Validation I: Relative Prices Non-tradables Relative price Non-Tradable / Tradable (1975=1) Construction/Manufactures Services/Goods Model only itaipu Model all shocks Model all but Qt / 44 Charotti-Hevia-Neumeyer Itaipú

33 Model Validation I: Relative Prices Non-tradables Relative price Non-Tradable / Tradable (1975=1) Consumer/Wholesale CPI/(CPI * E) Model only itaipu Model all shocks / 44 Charotti-Hevia-Neumeyer Itaipú

34 Model Validation II: Productivity in Construction Note: Value added in construction over employment in construction. Census data. 33 / 44 Charotti-Hevia-Neumeyer Itaipú

35 Model Validation III: Solow Residuals Solow residuals in model generated data and in actual data Log-deviation from sample mean (percent) Model Model (constant labor) Data / 44 Charotti-Hevia-Neumeyer Itaipú

36 Model Validation IV: Aggregate Investment Log-deviation from sample mean (percent) Data Model Model (no Qt) / 44 Charotti-Hevia-Neumeyer Itaipú

37 Concluding Remarks The building of Itaipú is a natural experiment on the macroeconomic effects of government spending. Independent of cycle Large Transitory, but persistent, so that it has time to work Constructed data on Itaipu investment on non-tradable goods from company records Constructed a simple macroeconomic model to evaluate the effect of Itaipu on output, employment and prices. Preliminary results: There is a business cycle associated to Itaipu Output and employment increase Reallocation of resources towards NT sector Novel method to measure TFP shocks Model validation: relative prices, Solow residuals, investment, labor productivity in construction are consistent with the predictions of the model. 36 / 44 Charotti-Hevia-Neumeyer Itaipú

38 BACKUP SLIDES 37 / 44 Charotti-Hevia-Neumeyer Itaipú

39 Other Shocks?: Terms of Trade 50 Log-deviation from sample mean (percent) / 44 Charotti-Hevia-Neumeyer Itaipú

40 Consumption and capital: model only Q t Percentage deviation from trend Tradable consumption (only Q t ) Non-Tradable consumption (only Q t ) Aggregate consumption (only Q t ) Tradable capital Non-tradable capital / 44 Charotti-Hevia-Neumeyer Itaipú

41 Model Validation II: Impulse Response Functions Data and Model Insert graph with Impulse Response Functions Data and Model 40 / 44 Charotti-Hevia-Neumeyer Itaipú

42 Separate income from expenditure shocks in itaipu Insert graphs pf output, prices and employment with only expenditure and with only income shock from itaipu 41 / 44 Charotti-Hevia-Neumeyer Itaipú

43 Government Finance 42 / 44 Charotti-Hevia-Neumeyer Itaipú

44 Real Exchange Rate 43 / 44 Charotti-Hevia-Neumeyer Itaipú

45 Robustness check add terms of trade and government non-itaipu government expenditure shocks to the model 44 / 44 Charotti-Hevia-Neumeyer Itaipú

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