Assessing the Impacts of ENSO on South American Agriculture

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1 Assessing the Impacts of ENSO on South American Agriculture Mark Brusberg United States Department of Agriculture Office of the Chief Economist / Presented to: The International Symposium on Synergistic Approaches to Food and Water Security George Mason University October 17, 2012

2 El Niño La Niña Jan-March 1998 Jan-March 1989 For more information go to:

3 Para Maranhao Piaui Rondonia Mato Grosso Tocantins Bahia Salta Tuc San Luis La Pampa Santiago del Estero Cordoba Paraguay Chaco Santa Fe Buenos Aires Formosa Entre Rios Corrientes Mato Grosso do Sul Rio Grande do Sul Goias Parana Sao Paulo Soybean Production *Average (most recent 5 years) Minor Minas Gerais Santa Catarina Production Intensity *Source: MINAG / IBGE Major Soybean Production Argentina, Brazil, and Paraguay Soybean crop calendar for most of Brazil & Paraguay Flower Fill JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Soybean crop calendar for most of Argentina FLOWER FILL Harvesting HARVEST Planting PLANT JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC ~42 - % of National Total (IBGE Average)

4 El Niño Years Source: USDA PSD-Online

5 El La Niño Niña Years Source: USDA PSD-Online

6 2008/09: Near Miss (4/5 seasons of La Niña) El Neutral Niño Years Source: USDA PSD-Online

7 Distinct signal past 3 summers (Southern Hemisphere): 2009/10: El Niño (peak: +1.6) (Neutral during NH summer) 2010/11: La Niña (peak: -1.5) (Neutral during NH summer) 2011/12: La Niña (peak: -1.0) (Neutral during NH summer) For more information go to:

8 El Niño Neutral La Niña Jan, Feb, Mar

9 El Niño Neutral La Niña Jan, Feb, Mar

10 El Niño Neutral La Niña Jan, Feb, Mar

11 El Niño Neutral La Niña Jan, Feb, Mar

12 By August, inevitability of El Niño was being accepted. However,

13 Niño 3.4 For more information go to:

14 Mid-September Forecast: JFM Warm to Neutral Early-October Forecast: JFM Neutral to Warm

15 By October, Southern Brazil Soy Crop Seen at Risk

16 Future Needs for Improved Response to ENSO: Forecasting Continued improvement in modeling efforts; Identify other phenomena interacting with ENSO (NAO, PDO, etc.); Education and Outreach Better understanding agricultural practices / climates involved; Re-assessment of global impacts; Impact Assessments New assessment techniques; Better access to country crop statistics and secondary sources of weather information.

17 Ar Mato Grosso Tocantins BS Bahia Brazil Climate (Rudloff, 1981) Aw Goias Minas Gerais Ar = Tropical rain Aw = Tropical wet and dry BS = Steppe (arid) Cr = Subtropical rain Mato Grosso do Sul Sao Paulo Soybean Production *Average ( ) Cr Rio Grande do Sul Parana Santa Catarina Ar Soybean crop calendar for most of Center-South Brazil FLWER FILL HARVEST Minor Production Intensity *Source: IBGE Major PLANT JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC * Source: IBGE Brazil

18 Mato Grosso, Brazil Yearly Starts to the Rainy Season Sep 7 Sep 7 Sep 9 Sep 9 Sep 14 Sep 16 Average = Sep 23 Sep 15 Sep 22 Sep 22 Sep 21 Sep 19 Sep 24 Sep 24 Sep 26 Sep 25 Oct 1 Sep 29 Sep 30 Sep 30 Oct 2 Median = Sep 25 Oct 2 Oct 3 Oct 3 Oct 3 Oct 5 Oct 5 Oct 10 Oct 10 Oct 15 Sep 5 Sep 10 Sep 15 Sep 20 Sep 25 Sep 30 Oct 5 Oct 10 Measurable rain (accumulation < 30 mm) Accumulation >= 30 mm

19 Jul-01 Jul-23 Aug-14 Sep-05 Sep-27 Oct-19 Nov-10 Dec-02 Dec-24 Jan-15 Feb-06 Feb-28 Mar-22 Apr-13 May-05 May-27 Jun-18 Brazil: Normal Daily Rainfall (mm) Parana MT

20 El Niño Years Source: IBGE

21 El Niño Years Source: IBGE

22

23

24 mt/ha Run 1: r 2 ~.98 All values: pcp, temp, days between rain for Nov March; mt/ha Run 2: r 2 ~.97 Dec pcp & temp Jan pcp, Feb precip, temp, days between rain, Mar pcp & days between rain

25 2011 ~3.5 mt/ha mt/ha Run 1: r 2 ~.98 All values: pcp, temp, days between rain for Nov March; Run 2: r 2 ~.98 Nov pcp & days between rain Dec pcp, temp & days between rain Jan days between rain Feb precip, temp, days between rain, Mar pcp & days between rain

26 Corn Production *Average (2005/06-09/10) WMO Stations Minor Production Intensity Major *Source: SAGPyA

27 Corn Production *Average (2005/06-09/10) WMO Stations Other (SAGPyA) Minor Production Intensity Major *Source: SAGPyA

28 Questions?

January 2018 Air Traffic Activity Summary

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