Aus dem Institut für Marktanalyse und Agrarhandelspolitik

Transcription

1 Aus dem Institut für Marktanalyse und Agrarhandelspolitik Marianne Kurzweil Oliver von Ledebur The EU-Mercosur PTA (state of negotiations and issues) Memoranda of understanding on Co-operation between the EU and the MERCOSUR (2001) Paper presented at the 1st German ENARPRI Seminar, Braunschweig, March 15th 2004 Braunschweig Bundesforschungsanstalt für Landwirtschaft (FAL) 2004

2 The EU-MERCOSUR PTA (state of negotiations and issues) Memoranda of Understanding on Co-operation between the EU and the MERCOSUR (2001) Marianne Kurzweil and Oliver von Ledebur ENARPRI-Seminar, Braunschweig, 15 th March 2004 Federal Agricultural Research Centre Institute of Market Analysis and Agricultural Trade Policy (FAL-MA) 1

3 Overview Introduction Keydata Products under Discussion Preferences under Discussion Role of Trade Development of Trade Conflict of Interest Conclusion 2

4 Introduction EU-MERCOSUR European Communities MERCOSUR members - under negotiation 3

5 Keydata Structure of population, 2001 urbane pop rural pop Mio EU-15 Germany MERCOSUR Brazil Arg+Chile+Par+Uru Source: FAOStat (2003) 4

6 Keydata Agric. Areas (selected regions), % 75% Mio. ha 50% 25% crops pasture % EU (15) Germany S-America Brazil Argentina Source: FAOStat (2003) 5

7 Keydata 1991 EU-MERCOSUR Support Agreement 1995 Interregional Framework for Cooperation 1999 Negotiation directives for negotiations on gradual and reciprocal trade liberalization 2001 expected start for negotiations on customs duties and services since 2002 negotiations on trade 6

8 Focus of Discussion Industrial goods Agricultural goods Services Automotive sector Wines and spirits (Wine Agreement) 7

9 Preferences under Discussion Currently: GSP Preferential market access for industrial commodities Preferential market access for agricultural products Exceptions: sugar, certain beef products, pork, poultry 8

10 Role of Trade MERCOSUR's Top Ten Export Products (2001) (by % Share of MERCOSUR's Total Exports) Vegetable oil residues 5.2 Soy beans, excl. Flour 4.9 Aircraft heavier than air 3.8 Pass motor vehicles exc buses 3.4 Iron ore, etc, excl. Pyrtes 3.3 Petroleum products 3.1 Crude petroleum 2.7 Footwear leather 1.6 Raw beet and cane sugar 1.6 Poultry fresh chld, frzn 1.6 Average share of Top Ten 31.2 Source: Statistical Yearbook ECLAC (United Nations, 2003) 9

11 Role of Trade Paraguay's Top Ten Export Products (2001) (by % Share of Paraguay's Total Exports) Soy beans, excl. Flour 36.0 Tobacco unmfd 8.6 Raw cotton, excl linters 8.4 Bovine meat fresh, frozen 7.7 Soya bean oil 3.4 Maize unmilled 4.2 Leather bovine nes, equine 3.4 Lumber planed etc noncon 3.4 Calf leather 2.0 Cigarettes 1.6 Average share of Top Ten 79.6 Source: Statistical Yearbook (United Nations, 2003) 10

12 Role of Trade Uruguay's Top Ten Export Products (2001) (by % Share of Uruguay's Total Exports) Leather bovine nes, equine 11.1 Bovine meat fresh, frozen 10.1 Wool tops 6.1 Rice glazed or polished 5.7 Fish fresh, chilled, frozen 3.7 Pass motor vehicles exc buses 3.3 Malt including flower 2.5 Rice in husk or husked 2.5 Milk and cream dry 2.4 Cheese and curd 2.3 Average share of Top Ten 49.7 Source: Statistical Yearbook (United Nations, 2003) 11

13 Role of Trade Argentina's Top Ten Export Products (2001) (by % Share of Argentina's Total Exports) Vegetable oil residues 9.5 Crude petroleum 9.0 Petroleum products 5.2 Wheat etc unmilled 4.9 Soy beans, excl. Flour 4.7 Soy bean oil 4.0 Maize unmilled 3.7 Pass motor vehicles exc buses 3.6 Leather bovine nes, equine 2.9 Gas natural 2.3 Average share of Top Ten 49.8 Source: Statistical Yearbook (United Nations, 2003) 12

14 Role of Trade Brazil's Top Ten Export Products (2001) (by % Share of Brazil's Total Exports) Aircraft heavier than air 5.2 Iron ore, etc, excl. Pyrtes 4.9 Soy beans, excl. Flour 3.8 Vegetable oil residues 3.4 Pass motor vehicles exc buses 3.3 Footwear leather 3.1 Raw beet and cane sugar 2.7 Poultry fresh chld, frzn 1.6 Petroleum products 1.6 Oth telecomm equipment 1.6 Average share of Top Ten 34.3 Source: Statistical Yearbook (United Nations, 2003) 13

15 Relevance of Trade Flows EU's - 15 share in the MERCOSUR trade (1996) (Exports) Others 24% EU 31% Latin A. 14% US 20% Chile 5% Japan 6% EU's-15 share in the MERCOSUR trade (1996) (Imports) Others 24% EU 33% Latin A. 8% US 29% Japan 5% Chile 2% European Commission (2003) 14

16 Relevance of Trade Flows MERCOSUR's share in EU - 15 trade (Exports) ACP 3% MERCOSUR 3% Medite. 9% US 18% Others 33% Japan 6% Latin A. 5% ASEAN 6% MERCOSUR's share in EU's - 15 trade (Imports) US 19% ACP 4% MERCOSUR 3% Others 33% Medite. 7% Japan 10% Latin A. 5% ASEAN 6% European Commission (2003) 15

17 Role of Trade ,9 Gesamtproduktion Mio Interregional 2002 Trade 2001 Nordamerika EU15 24,3 MOE FSU Indien China Mexiko N./Mittl Mittl. Osten Südostasien 24,6 MERCOSUR Afrika Ozeanien Source: FNP (2003); FAOStat (2003) 16

18 Role of Trade (industr. goods) 129 9,3 Mio Gesamtproduktion $ Interregional 2002 Trade 2001 Nordamerika EU15 8,3 MOE FSU Indien China Mexiko N./Mittl Mittl. Osten Südostasien 1,0 MERCOSUR Afrika Ozeanien Source: FNP (2003); FAOStat (2003) 17

19 Role of Trade (agric. goods) ,1 Gesamtproduktion Mio Interregional 2002 Trade 2001 Nordamerika EU15 MOE 0,845 FSU Indien China Mexiko N./Mittl Mittl. Osten Südostasien 13,3 MERCOSUR Afrika Ozeanien Source: FNP (2003); FAOStat (2003) 18

20 Role of Trade (Wheat) Interregional Trade 2001 FSU Nordamerika 36,0 EU15 15,0 MOE China N./Mittl Mittl. Osten Südostasien 11,0 MERCOSUR Afrika Ozeanien Source: Uhlmann (2002); FAOStat (2003) 19

21 Role of Trade (soy) Interregional Trade 2002 Nordamerika 25 EU15 MOE FSU China Indien Mexiko N./Mittl Mittl. Osten Südostasien 35 MERCOSUR Afrika Ozeanien Source: FNP (2003); FAOStat (2003) 21

22 Role of Trade (soy meal) Interregional Trade 2002 FSU Nordamerika 6,1 EU15 MOE China Indien Mexiko N./Mittl Mittl. Osten Südostasien 30 MERCOSUR Afrika Ozeanien Source: FNP (2003); FAOStat (2003) 22

23 Role of Trade (Beef) Interregional Trade 2002 Nordamerika EU15 0,5 MOE FSU Indien Japan/ Südkorea Mexiko N./Mittl Mittl. Osten Südostasien 1,4 MERCOSUR Afrika Ozeanien Source: FNP (2003); FAOStat (2003) 23

24 Role of Trade (Pork) Interregional Trade 2002 Nordamerika 1,0 EU15 3,8 MOE FSU Indien 0,4 China Japan/ Südkorea Mexiko Südostasien 0,4 MERCOSUR Afrika Ozeanien Source: Probst (2003); FAOStat (2003) 24

25 Development of Trade Flows EU-15 Oilcake Imports from MERCOSUR tons ARG BRA PAR 25

26 Development of Trade Flows EU-15 Beef Imports from MERCOSUR tons ARG BRA PAR URU 26

27 Development of Trade Flows EU-15 Pork Imports from MERCOSUR in Thounsand tons ARG BRA URU 27

28 Development of Trade Flows EU-15 Maize Imports from MERCOSUR and USA tons ARG BRA MERC USA 28

29 Development of Trade Flows EU-15 Orange Juice Imports from MERCOSUR and USA tons BRA MERC USA 29

30 Development of Trade Flows EU-15 Wheat Imports from MERCOSUR and USA in Thounsand tons ARG BRA PAR URU MERC CHILE USA 30

31 Conflict of Interest EU - MERCOSUR EU pushes for trade liberalization in industrial goods MERCOSUR pushes for trade liberalization in agricultural goods Intra MERCOSUR Argentina s industrial sector is re-developing - cheap supply is desired Argentina desires exclusive access to agricultural markets in MERCOSUR Brasil s industrial sector shows strongly growing tendencies - protection is desired Brasil prefer cheap supply with agricultural products 31

32 Conclusion after 10 years the MERCOSUR countries could not harmonise and deepen their own integration scheme ( macroeconomics ) democratic structures preserved big asymmetries inside and outside small global players doing regionalism forthcoming of the Doha-Round (WTO) 32

33 Danke für die Aufmerksamkeit 33