SOUTH AMERICAN SOYBEANS PRODUCTION AND EXPORT SITUATION AND IT IMPACT ON GLOBAL MARKET
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1 SOUTH AMERICAN SOYBEANS PRODUCTION AND EXPORT SITUATION AND IT IMPACT ON GLOBAL MARKET Seneri Kernbeis Paludo Mato Grosso Agriculture Economic Institute
2 Agenda Brazil & Argentina Overview Short term production and export vision Medium to Long term production and export vision Remarks
3 Brazil & Argentina General Overview China Equator Brazil Argentina
4 Brazil & Argentina General Overview Brazil Argentina Area: 8,5 Million Sq Km (5 th ) Population: 199 Million (6 th ) GPD: US$ 1.9 trillion (10 th ) GDP Growth: 5,2% (2008) Exports: 1 st in Coffee, Sugar, Ethanol, Beef, Poultry Meet, Tobacco, Orange Juice; 2 nd in Soybean; 3 rd in Corn; 4 th Pork and Cotton. Area: 2,7 Million Sq Km (9 th ) Population: 40,9 Million (32 h ) GPD: US$ 5,7 billion (24 th ) GDP Growth: 6,97% (2008) Exports: 1 st in Soy Meal, Soy Oil, Peanut Oil; 2 nd in Sunflower seed Oil and Meal, Peanut; 3rd in Soybean, Sorghum, Corn. Source: CIA factbook
5 Brazil & Argentina General Overview Major Grain producers in the world Source: USDA
6 Brazil & Argentina General Overview Major Soybean producers in the world Source: USDA
7 Brazil & Argentina General Overview 120 hundred 40% tons 15% 200 hundred tons 25 hundred tons 45% 105 hundred tons 1. Production in every 6 month = JUST IN TIME OFFER 2. Concentration + Inelastic Demand = VOLATILITY
8 BR & ARG -Short term production and exports
9 BR & ARG -Short term production and exports + 5 million tons Brazil Production (million tons) ,2 + 20,5 million tons + 25,5 million tons 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 Argentina Production (million tons) /00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 54,5 Source: USDA
10 BR & ARG -Short term production and exports Argentina Agroconsult projections Planted Area (million tons) USDA 18,5 Production (million tons) USDA 52,5 54,5 11,4 12,6 14,0 14,4 15,2 16,3 17,0 17,8 19,3 30,0 35,5 33,0 39,0 40,5 48,8 46,2 32,0 Source: Agroconsult
11 BR & ARG -Short term production and exports Brazil Agroconsult projections Planted Area (million tons) 16,3 18,5 Conab 22,5 21,4 22,9 22,1 20,6 21,3 21,7 22,9 22,5 41,9 Production (million tons) 52,0 49,8 51,1 56,9 58,1 60,0 56,9 Conab 62,5 65,2 Source: Agroconsult
12 BR & ARG -Short term production and exports Underestimated Brazil Dom. Cons. (million tons) ,1 31,4 31,6 Real 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 Argentina Dom. Cons (million tons) ,6 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 Source: USDA
13 BR & ARG -Short term production and exports Brazil Exports (millions tons) Underestimated ,7 11 Underestimated 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 Argentina Exports (millions Tons) 4,1 7,3 6,0 8,6 6,7 9,6 7,2 9,6 13,8 5,9 9,7 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 Source: USDA
14 BR & ARG -Short term production and exports How will this big production in South America affect prices? 0,8 Brazilian Soy Premiums Exports (cents US$ per bushel) 0,6 0,4 0,2 0,0-0,2-0,4 mai-09 jun-09 jul-09??? ago-09 set-09 out-09 nov-09 dez-09 jan-10 fev-10 mar-10 abr-10 March May Source: IMEA
15 BR & ARG -Short term production and exports Argentina Profit Margin Yields(bags/ha) 981 Peso os/ha / / / / / / /10* Source: Agroconsult
16 BR & ARG -Short term production and exports Paraná (South) Profit Margin Yields (bags/ha) R$/ha / / / / / / / / / /10 Source: Agroconsult
17 BR & ARG -Short term production and exports Paraná (South) Cost of Production -18% R$ 1.180,00/ha or US$ 678,00/ha Paraná (South) Profit Simulation (BRL/USD) CBOT (US$/bu) 7 7,5 8 8,5 9 9, ,5 11 1, , , , , , , , , , , Source: Agroconsult
18 BR & ARG -Short term production and exports Mato Grosso (Midwest) Profit Margin Yields(bags/ha) Source: Agroconsult
19 BR & ARG -Short term production and exports Mato Grosso (Midwest) Cost of Production -15% R$ 1.290,00/ha or US$ 709,00 /ha Mato Grosso (Midwest) Profit Simulation (BRL/USD) CBOT (US /bu) 7 7,5 8 8,5 9 9, ,5 11 1, , , , , , , , , , , Source: Agroconsult
20 BR & ARG -Medium and Long term production and export
21 BR & ARG -Medium and Long term production and Export Competitiveness between South America and ROW How to solve this equation? South America: Items Var. % Area 15,8 41,7 164% Production 29,3 95,5 266% Exports 8,1 39,3 386% Rest of the world: Items Var. % Area 38,4 54,5 41% Production ,1 53% Exports 17,3 37,6 117% It s South America able to keep increasing the production and export at the same tax rate from the past years? Source: USDA
22 Argentina -Medium and Long term production and Export Argentina Harvested Area (million hectares) /01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 Corn Soybean Wheat Sunflower From the total of 7,2 million hectares increased in the past 8 years, 64% occurred over Corn, Wheat and Sunflower areas. Source: USDA
23 Argentina -Medium and Long term production and Export Major soybean areas in Argentina: Consideration: 18,5 million hectares in 2009/10 season Some experts says that the maximum area will be 19 million hectares There are no more area to expand in Argentina Next target : Midwest Brazil Argentinean Group will harvest more than 200 thousand hectares in Mato Grosso in 2009/10 season. Source: Sagypia
24 Brazil -Medium and long term production and exports Brazil: From South to North 2008/09 57,1 MM tonnes MIDWEST 56% 1990 s 1980 s 1995/96 15,5 MM tonnes MIDWEST 48% 1960 s 1980/81 15,5 MM tonnes Source: Conab
25 Brazil -Medium and long term production and exports South Brazil Characteristics: 36% Soybean production 18,4 MM tonnes(2009), 36% of total Small scale producers (average < 500 hectares) High/Medium production risk (weather) High share of RR soybeans ( 71%) Official Farm Credit System is the main source of credit Strong Cooperative System Good soil quality low fertilizer use Low transportation costs -strong basis Source: Conab
26 Brazil -Medium and long term production and exports Midwest Brazil 56% Characteristics: Soybean production stated 33,1 MM tonnes(56%) Large scale producers (average > 500 hectares) Low production risk (weather) Medium share of RR soybeans (50%) Trading companies and input suppliers are the main source of short term credit Low soil quality High fertilizer use High transportation costs -weak basis Cotton, Sunflower and Corn as 2 nd Crops Source: Conab
27 Brazil -Medium and long term production and exports Large Midwest Farm Sapezal MT Soybean Harvesting No tillage (environmental friendly) Corn Seeding Scale mechanization Two crops in the same year without irrigation Harvesting(soybeans) and sowing (corn) in the same day
28 Brazil -Medium and long term production and exports North-East Brazil Characteristics: 8% Soybean production 5,2 MM tons (8% of total) Large scale producers (average > 500 hectares) Medium production risk (weather) Low share of RR soybeans (37%) Trading companies and input suppliers are the main source of short term credit Poor soil quality High fertilizer use Medium transportation costs -Good medium term perspective Source: Conab
29 Brazil -Medium and long term production and exports Soybean Expansion Projections: 2008/ /20 Northeast Midwest South Source: Celeres/WWF
30 Average Yields and Production Risk Brazil -Medium and long term production and exports Average Yields of Soybeans (2007/08) Standard Deviation of Yields of Soybeans AvaregeYield: Source: KleffmannGroup / Standard Deviation: Source: Burgo, Marcelo Nery Caracterização Espacial de riscos na agricultura e implicações para o desenvolvimento de instrumentos para seu gerenciamento ESALQ/USP Piracicaba, 2005
31 Brazil -Medium and long term production and exports Land Use in Brazil Specification Area (million hectares) Brazil % Pastures % Grain and Oilseeds(ex Soy) 25 3% Soybean 22,5 3% Sugarcane 7,5 1% Planted forestry 6 1% Park and Conservation Unit % Indigenous reserves % Legal and others reserves % % Sources: Embrapa, IBGE, Conab
32 Brazil -Medium and Long term production and Export Mato Grosso State has the higher transportation cost Source: Celeres
33 Brazil -Medium and Long term production and Export Main Route to China Transportation Cost MT (BR) x IA (US): Davenport - IA Sorriso - MT ,4 180, ,9 136,8 Source: Celeres/WWF
34 Brazil -Medium and Long term production and Export Brazilian next railroads Source: Aprosoja
35 Brazil -Medium and Long term production and Export Brazilian next roads Source: Aprosoja
36 Brazil -Medium and Long term production and Export Brazilian next waterways Source: Aprosoja
37 Brazil -Medium and Long term production and Export Brazilian Ports North 5% 2% 5% 31% 12% 3% / Salvador 7% 17% 25% 8% 14% 36% South Source: Secex/Conab 16%
38 Soybeans are NOT in the Amazon Brazil -Medium and Long term production and Export ENVIRONMENTAL SITUATION AMAZON BIOME In 2007, only in 0,2% of total Amazon Biome area was planted with soybean SOYBEAN AREA Consensus Soy is not an important factor in the deforestation of the Amazon Biome, declared Greenpeace, WWF-Brazil and the Minister of the Environment Source: Embrapa
39 Brazil -Medium and Long term production and Export Environmental Issues In Brazil there is No Environmental Problem, in fact there is a Legislation Enforcement Problem. Amazon: Three different concepts Amazon RainForest Amazon Biome Amazon Rain Forest Legal Framework Environmental legislation Federal Law; State Law; Legal MT; Forestry Law (discussion in Brazilian congress); Environmental Law (discussion in Brazilian congress);
40 Remarks Short term If SA record production becomes a reality there will be a bear market Short term Concentration of production must have a good management risk for consumer countries Medium term SA must find a way to keeping increasing production to meet global consumption Medium term Argentina is growing at full capacity (most increase in yielding investments) Long term Insufficient logistics in Brazil (needs investments) and Legal Environmental Issues are lowering production rates
41 THANKS! Seneri Kernbeis Paludo Mato Grosso Agricultural Economics Institute IMEA In Memorian of Dario M. Hiromoto
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