Wrap Up. Amherst. University of Massachusetts Amherst. Suzanne Cook Suzanne Cook Consulting, LLC

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1 University of Massachusetts Amherst Amherst Travel and Tourism Research Association: Advancing Tourism Research Globally 2014 Marketing Outlook Forum - Outlook for 2015 Wrap Up Suzanne Cook Suzanne Cook Consulting, LLC Follow this and additional works at: Cook, Suzanne, "Wrap Up" (2016). Travel and Tourism Research Association: Advancing Tourism Research Globally This Event is brought to you for free and open access by ScholarWorks@UMass Amherst. It has been accepted for inclusion in Travel and Tourism Research Association: Advancing Tourism Research Globally by an authorized administrator of ScholarWorks@UMass Amherst. For more information, please contact scholarworks@library.umass.edu.

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7 Consumers are feeling more cheerful December

8 March 2007 = ) Source: MMGY Global, travelhorizons TM

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10 Why is the US economy poised to accelerate? 1. Labor market dynamics improving 2. Further payroll gains expected 3. Rising consumer confidence 4. Increasing wealth and deleveraged household sector 5. Household spending to gain momentum 6. Signs of business investment strengthening 7. Housing to pick up (though risks remain) 8. Policy should remain favorable 9

11 Global economy on a modest growth path Eurozone improving, but risks remain (deflation, Ukraine) Japan on a modest expansion path with inflation trending up, but questions around the resilience of the economy (tax hike). Economic growth in China now expected to come close to the government s 7.5% growth target for this year and slower next year. Outlook for other emergers is less positive. Strengthening dollar will make travel to U.S. more expensive.

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13 DKSA PERFORMANCE/Monitor SM

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15 The Return of the Mainliner Bigger airplanes are part of the answer. High fuel prices assure this. But bigger airplanes at projected demand levels means that consolidation of traffic must occur. Fewer commercial airports. Fewer hubs. Fewer routes. Fewer flights.

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20 DKSA PERFORMANCE/Monitor SM

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23 Interest Respondent Personally 10 - Extremely Interested or below 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 37% 36% 34% 34% 39% 10% 11% 12% 14% 10% 13% 14% 17% 17% 13% 18% 18% 17% 15% 18% 22% 21% 20% 20% 20% Theme Parks Zoos Aquariums Museums Amusement Parks

24 Interest Respondent Personally 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 50% 54% 58% 54% 68% 79% 11% 11% 8% 11% 12% 12% 12% 12% 8% 13% 10% 11% 13% 9% 7% 14% 8% 5% 12% 12% 10% 5% 7% 5% Outdoor Water Park 10 - Extremely Interested or below Family Ent. Center Indoor Water Park Cultural Centers Specialty Sports Parks Extreme Sports Parks

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29 World Outbound Travel Promotable Business Travel Is Outperforming 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% +61% +44% Global Know How Tanking +27% Incentive Convention Conference / Congress +4% Exhibition / Trade Fair Financial Crisis -10% Traditional Source: World Travel Monitor (Trend 1-8), IPK International IPK INTERNATIONAL TOURISM RESEARCH TOURISM MARKETING WORLD TRAVEL MONITOR 28

30 DKSA PERFORMANCE/Monitor SM

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32 U.S. Business Travel by Trip Purpose Transient: 2014 snap-back from slower 2013, plus both rising spend-per-trip and travel inflation Group Meeting: 2013 trips way up after two years of pent-up demand trips down on cyclical snap-back but spending is up on a per trip basis and via higher travel inflation Yr-to-Yr % Change 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% GBTA U.S. Transient Trips & Spending 7.0% 6.7% 6.2% 4.4% 3.2% 3.2% 2.4% 1.5% -0.4% 2.7% 2.3% -1.2% -9.6% Yr-to-Yr % Change 10% 5% 0% -5% GBTA U.S. Group Trips & Spending 8.3% 7.1% 7.2% 8.6% 5.9% 5.9% 3.3% 4.0% 1.4% 0.5% -0.6% -3.3% -6.7% -15% -20% -14.7% Person-Trips Spending % -15% -11.1% Person-Trips Spending Source: GBTA Foundation, Rockport Analytics 2014 GBTA. All rights reserved. 31

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38 World Outbound Travel World Outbound Trip Performance 985 million Trips % +5% +4% +4%* +5% % Mean growth: 45 Million more outbound trips per year Source: World Travel Monitor Trend 1-8/2014, IPK International IPK INTERNATIONAL TOURISM RESEARCH TOURISM MARKETING WORLD TRAVEL MONITOR 37

39 Our Forecast for World Outbound Travel % Source: World Travel Monitor : Outbound Travel Intention Survey (Trend 1-8), IPK International IPK INTERNATIONAL TOURISM RESEARCH TOURISM MARKETING WORLD TRAVEL MONITOR 38

40 Our Outbound Travel Forecast 2015 Asia +8 % South America +4 % North America +5 % Europe +5 % Source: World Travel Monitor : Outbound Travel Intention Survey (Trend 1-8), IPK International IPK INTERNATIONAL TOURISM RESEARCH TOURISM MARKETING WORLD TRAVEL MONITOR OR 39

41 10K Dow! Japan, Germany, UK at historic records Domestic drops; Int plummets. SARS. Domestic stalls then zooms. Int declines continue. Bubblicious. Domestic zooms. Int ZOOMS! Recession. Domestic plummets and stalls. Int plummets then fully recovers. Eco-Funk. Domestic low-growth forecast. Int growth stronger.? National Travel and Tourism Office, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce 40

42 100 USA arrivals in millions (f) 15(f) 16(f) 17(f) 18(f) 19(f) Sources: U.S. Department of Commerce, ITA, National Travel and Tourism Office; Secretaria de Turismo (Mexico); Statistics Canada. -- Fall 2014 Travel Forecast National Travel and Tourism Office, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce 41

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45 Overview of Top 10 Percentile of U.S. Households The linked image cannot be displaye d. The The linked image cannot be displayed. The file may have been moved, renamed, or deleted. Verify that the link points to the correct file and

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59 Start with Making Your Your City a Great Place to Live, Work, Play, and Learn.

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61 Big Data Quotes + I keep saying that the sexy job in the next 10 years will be statisticians, and I m not kidding. Hal Varian, chief economist at Google. + "The goal is to turn data into information, and information into insight." Carly Fiorina, former chief executive of HP. Source: CEOworld

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