2015, a year boosted by an excellent 2 nd half-year

Transcription

1 Ufly CD92/Olivier Ravoire The Hauts-de-Seine Office Market Newsletter no. 9 - March , a year boosted by an excellent 2 nd half-year Following a first half-year contraction, activity picked up at the end of the year on the office market. With more major companies bringing their projects to fruition and very small businesses and SMEs remaining active, the Hauts-de-Seine accounted for 37% of the volumes marketed in the region. In an economic context that is still depressed, moves are often motivated by floor space optimisation and cost reduction. However, companies may also need to change their installation strategies and reconsider the development of their spaces to meet the challenges resulting from the emergence of new ways of working. The demand for real estate from companies is changing and owners, investors and promoters are having to adapt to make available to users property holdings that meet these expectations. The Hauts-de- Seine region offers solutions that are adapted to these companies, like Coca-Cola which has opted to install its head office in an eco-responsible building in Issy-les- Moulineaux, Deloitte in the Tour Majunga at La Défense and the OECD in the In/Out campus in Boulogne- Billancourt. La Défense and Val de Seine: two major business quarters Indicators, 1 January 2016 Hauts-de-Seine Paris City Total Ile-de-France Transaction volumes 807,900 sq m * 950,300 sq m * 2,209,800 sq m of transactions 803 1,744 3,211 Immediately available offer 1,473,900 sq m 769,000 sq m 3,906,000 sq m including % new/redeveloped surfaces 24% 16% 18% * Definite future supply including new/redeveloped programmes Projects to build Top rental (excl. VAT, charges/sq m/year) Average headline rent (excl. VAT, charges/sq m/year) 630,900 sq m 738,400 sq m 1,653,200 sq m 253,100 sq m 302,600 sq m 670,700 sq m 933,700 sq m 450,600 sq m 2,265,800 sq m * Changes compared to 2014 Changes compared to 1 January 2015 Sources: CBRE and Immostat

2 A MODERN OFFICE STOCK WITH EXCEPTIONAL GROWTH The largest tertiary development in the region Tertiary zones in the Hauts-de-Seine At the beginning of 2016, the built office holdings in the Hauts-de-Seine was estimated at more than 14.5 million sq m, or 26% of the Ile-de-France total. During the last 10 years, 2.8 million sq m of office space has been built in the Hauts-de-Seine and nearly 800,000 sq m redeveloped. The department has accounted for 38% of the region's tertiary development. 1 January 2016 Office stock Growth over last 10 years La Défense 3,354,700 sq m + 13% Péri-Défense 2,892,400 sq m + 26% Neuilly-Levallois 1,405,500 sq m + 2% Boucle Nord 1,960,700 sq m + 49% Boucle Seine Ouest 2,726,500 sq m + 25% Seine Sud 1,297,800 sq m + 51% Périphérie Sud 811,000 sq m + 29% Ouest Résidentiel 84,700 sq m + 1% Total Hauts-de-Seine 14,533,300 sq m + 24% Paris CBD 6,451,400 sq m + 2% Ile-de-France 56,373,200 sq m + 15% estimations from the ORIE base THE VACANCY RATE IS DECREASING Nearly 1.5 million sq m offer available, or a supply down 11% in 1 year 10.1% immediate vacancy Changes in the available office space offer in the Hauts-de-Seine (end of the period) The département accounts for 38% of the Ile-de-France region immediate offer (for 26% of the stock) 2

3 Distribution of the immediately available offer and the vacancy rate 24% of new or redeveloped offer 41% of available supply located at La Défense and in Péri-Défense 1 January 2016 Offer available Share Vacancy rate % new/ redeveloped La Défense 318,400 sq m 54% 9.5% 37% Péri-Défense 286,600 sq m 28% 9.9% 19% Neuilly-Levallois 120,400 sq m 8% 8.6% 12% Boucle Nord 275,200 sq m 43% 14% 22% Boucle Seine Ouest 233,000 sq m 17% 8.5% 21% Seine Sud 132,300 sq m 53% 10.2% 40% Périphérie Sud 106,200 sq m 56% 13.1% 8% Total Hauts-de-Seine 1,473,900 sq m 37% 10.1% 24% Paris CBD 308,000 sq m 16% 4.8% 12% Ile-de-France 3,906,000 sq m 31% 6.9% 18% 15% of the available supply < 1,000 sq m Sources: CBRE and Immostat Changes in the immediately available offer in the Hauts-de-Seine by surface (at the end of period) 37% of the available supply or 48 buildings The available offer < 3, 000 sq m is stable year to year (- 1%) whereas it has fallen by 15% for floor spaces > 3,000 sq m. The immediate offer is decreasing due to a dynamic rental market Nearly 1.5 million sq m are immediately available in the Hauts-de-Seine, a supply that has fallen by 11% in one year following two and a half years during which it increased. The new/redeveloped share has fallen to 24% following significant marketing. At La Défense, the immediate supply of new and redeveloped surfaces is progressively being consumed, the vacancy rate has fallen below 10% for the first time since the end of In Péri-Défense, the surfaces between 1,000 sq m and 5,000 sq m represent 55% of the stock and the 9 buildings 28%, including 4 located in Nanterre. In the Neuilly-Levallois sector, the supply has fallen in Neuilly-sur-Seine with an offer that is henceforth very limited in large areas. The Boucle Nord has the highest vacancy rate in the département (14%) with a supply of large areas that remains high (10 buildings including 3 new ones with, in particular, Atrium and Kleber Défense at La Garenne-Colombes). The Boucle Seine Ouest has the most contained vacancy rate in the zone (8.5%) following the good performance of the rental market. 4 offers are available: 2 in Boulogne-Billancourt and 2 in Issy-les-Moulineaux. In the Seine Sud region, 7 offers > sq m account for 53% of the supply including 5 located in Montrouge, this commune accounting for 55% of the stock of the zone. The immediate supply of the Périphérie Sud accounts for 56% of offers : 2 in particular, La Boursidière 2.0 and l Astrale are located in Plessis-Robinson. 3

4 NEARLY 40% OF REGION S SURFACES UNDER CONSTRUCTION 630,900 sq m of definite future supply Surfaces for delivery up to 2017 in the Hauts-de-Seine (new and redeveloped programmes ) Including 408,700 sq m of which there is 62% new or redeveloped surfaces or 18 buildings under construction to be marketed 11 speculative launches in 2015 Scheduling of the definite future supply new and redeveloped in the Hauts-de-Seine The département accounts for 38% of the region s definite future supply (all types and all floor spaces together). The risk of quality over-supply has disappeared." A definite future supply that remains contained despite several speculative launch operations After hitting a low point in mid 2015, the definite future supply (all building types together) in the Hauts-de-Seine has regained its end of 2014 level while remaining relatively contained. Therefore the vacancy rate currently observed should not increase over the coming half-years and could even continue to fall. The future supply includes 253,100 sq m of new or redeveloped floor spaces. While there were only 3 speculative launches counted in 2014, 11 were noted in In La Défense, 4 redevelopments are in progress including 1 > 30,000 sq m with Window (former Elysées La Défense, delivery scheduled for the end of 2017). In Péri-Défense, the 3 buildings being developed are located in Nanterre. In the Neuilly-Levallois zone, sales of the quality and large floor space stock encouraged the launching of operations. 4 operations are now expected in Levallois-Perret. In the Boucle Nord, only 1 construction is in progress with United in Clichy. In the Boucle Seine Ouest, 2 redevelopments are under way in Boulogne-Billancourt with Le Cristallin and Quai Ouest, only 1 new programme is under way in the zone with Aquarel (in the Pont d Issy ZAC) in Issy-les-Moulineaux. In the Seine Sud region, 2 buildings are being constructed: White in Montrouge and the partially pre-marketed Résonance programme in Bagneux. 4

5 SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL FOR CONSTRUCTION PROGRAMMES Numerous construction projects are ready to start, notably in the North of the Hauts-de-Seine The 30 construction projects and 3 redevelopments being studied in the Hauts-de-Seine represent a potential of 933,700 sq m to develop (41% of the regional total) but for which the launch dates are uncertain. At La Défense, 6 tower construction projects are being studied (Air², Ava, Trinity, Alto, Hermitage and Eria) while planning permission for the Tours Sisters (alternative to the tour Phare) has not yet been applied for. The Boucle Nord has 9 projects, 3 of which are located in Asnières-sur-Seine. In the Boucle Seine Ouest, 6 projects are being studied: 4 in Issy-les-Moulineaux and 2 in Meudon. Nanterre accounts for 3 of the 4 projects in Péri-Défense. Location of the immediate and future new and redeveloped programmes BOUCLE NORD Immediate 40,500 sq m 3 In progress 7,000 sq m 1 Projected 272,300 sq m 9 PÉRI-DÉFENSE BOUCLE SEINE OUEST Immediate 33,800 sq m 3 In progress 43,200 sq m 3 Projected 76,000 sq m 4 Immediate 28,700 sq m 2 In progress 65,700 sq m 4 LA DÉFENSE NEUILLY-LEVALLOIS Immediate 108,400 sq m 6 In progress 59,100 sq m 4 Projected 300,500 sq m 7 Immediate 9,500 sq m 1 In progress 41,300 sq m 4 Projected 6,300 sq m 1 Projected 183,400 sq m 6 SEINE SUD Immediate 43,400 sq m 4 In progress 36,700 sq m 2 Projected 53,200 sq m 3 PÉRIPHÉRIE SUD Immediate 6,100 sq m 1 In progress 0 sq m 0 Projected 42,000 sq m 3 5

6 A DYNAMIC LEASING MARKET IN THE SECOND HALF OF ,900 sq m marketed for 803 transactions in 2015 Changes in office volumes marketed in Ile-de-France (in millions of sq m) or - 6% in volume and + 3% in number year to year In 2015, the département accounted for 37% of the region s marketed volumes." 27 transactions (for 368,800 sq m) / Immostat Changes in the office space volumes marketed in the Hauts-de- Seine + 9% volumes marketed on the < 500 sq m market (or 108,500 sq m) The Boucle Seine Ouest and Péri- Défense: the most dynamic regions in 2015." / Immostat 2015: a second half-year boosted by the return of major transactions while small and medium floor spaces holding up After a first half-year at an all-time low, the activity picked up during the second part of the year to limit the drop in marketed volumes to 6% year to year and 7% compared to the annual average noted between 2005 and transactions were signed in 2015 including 18 during the second half-year, or volumes down 10% year-to-year. The < 1,000 sq m market is stable year-to-year, the 1,000 sq m - 5,000 sq m niche is slightly lower (- 2%). At La Défense, take-up fell 40% after an excellent movements were concluded including 2 > 10,000 sq m: Elior in the tour Egée and Sogecap in D2. In Péri-Défense, volumes increased 26% following the signing of 7 transactions, of which the largest concerned the Novartis turnkey operation for 42,200 sq m in Rueil-Malmaison. Neuilly-Levallois was subject to the after-effects of a record 2014 with its lowest volume level since The Boucle Nord was down 13% year-to-year, although Colombes did well with the gradual marketing of the West Plaza and Equilibre buildings. The Boucle Seine Ouest had a record year due to the signing of 9 transactions including 3 > 30,000 sq m: AccorHotels and La Poste in Issy-les-Moulineaux and also OECD in Boulogne-Billancourt. The Seine Sud region was stable over the year but well off its long term average. The Périphérie Sud remained active with local small businesses and SMEs, volumes suffered through a lack of transactions > 3,000 sq m. 6

7 GOOD MARKETING LEVEL FOR SMALL BUSINESSES AND SMEs Small businesses and SMEs were active In 2015, transactions of less than 5,000 sq m accounted for 54% of the volumes marketed in the département (compared to 52% for the period 2005 to 2014): The Boucle Seine Ouest polarised 35% of the transactions of the département, with Boulogne- Billancourt as the locomotive. 80% of transactions in 2015 concerned floor spaces < 1,000 sq m Boulogne-Billancourt, Levallois-Perret and Neuilly-sur-Seine accounted for 48% of the transactions < 1,000 sq m in 2015 In Péri-Défense (20% of the movements) and Boucle Nord (9%), the transport, logistics and distribution companies were the most active along with the industrial sector. Neuilly-Levallois (18% of the movements) saw its weight drop despite a more dynamic second half-year. Changes in the number of transactions in the Hauts-de-Seine by floor space niche The Seine Sud (6%) and Périphérie Sud (3%) regions levelled off in / Immostat Lease transactions references second half-year 2015 (excluding confidential) Quarter Building / Address City Tenant State of the premises Value (excl. VAT, charges/sq m/ year) T3 Tour Sequana Issy-les-Moulineaux AccorHotels 43,000 sq m Usage state N.C T4 Lemnys Issy-les-Moulineaux La Poste 42,571 sq m Redeveloped 415 T4 Les Fontaines Rueil-Malmaison Novartis 42,209 sq m To be built N.C T4 Tour Egée La Défense Elior 19,035 sq m Renovated N.C T4 City Lights Boulogne-Billancourt General Electric Capital 14,768 sq m Redeveloped N.C T4 Pixel Nanterre BNP Paribas 14,171 sq m New 290 T3 D2 La Défense Sogecap 12,921 sq m New N.C T4 Carpe Diem La Défense CSC Financial Services Sas 8,168 sq m New N.C T3 Le Tripode Saint- Cloud Elis 8,000 sq m To be redeveloped N.C T4 Trigone - Lot A Issy-les-Moulineaux Colas 8,000 sq m To be built N.C T4 Reflex Courbevoie Antargaz 6,385 sq m Redeveloped 370 T3 Seine Way Rueil-Malmaison BNP Paribas 5,331 sq m Redeveloped N.C T4 Voluto Montrouge Credit Agricole Immobilier 5,194 sq m New 320 T4 Vinci Suresnes Dassault Aviation 5,185 sq m Renovated 250 T4 Blackstar Boulogne-Billancourt In Extenso 5,064 sq m Renovated 361 T4 West Plaza Colombes Colgate Palmolive 4,059 sq m New 350 T4 Carpe Diem La Défense Verallia 3,993 sq m New 460 T4 Antares Clichy Epson 3,784 sq m Usage state N.C T3 Kinetik Boulogne-Billancourt Boursorama 3,769 sq m New N.C / Immostat 7 N.C: Not communicated

8 HEADLINE RENTS ARE LEVELLING Attractive economic rents In 2015, headline rental figures in the Hauts-de-Seine gradually stabilised except for certain assets still subject to downwards pressure. The commercial incentives remained very high, with owners creating attractive installation conditions to encourage users to commit. Location of the transactions signed in 2015 by headline rent segment For leases > 1,000 sq m, the differential between the headline rent and the economic rent is on average estimated between 20% and 25%. In 2015, 50% of the transactions were signed between 210 and 330 excl. VAT, charges/sq m/year. Rents for new or redeveloped buildings in Boulogne- Billancourt, Levallois-Perret and Issy-les-Moulineaux are situated between 350 and 470 excl. VAT, charges/sq m/year. They can reach 530 excl. VAT, charges/sq m/year in La Défense and 550 in Neuilly-sur-Seine. Average headline rent on 1 January 2016 (in excl. VAT, charges/sq m/year, annual change) in excl. VAT, charges/sq m/year New/Redeveloped/ Renovated Used condition La Défense 415 = 330 Péri-Défense = Neuilly-Levallois Boucle Nord 222 = 146 Boucle Seine Ouest Seine Sud 268 = 178 = Périphérie Sud Total Hauts-de-Seine Paris CBD Average Ile-de-France 296 = 217 = Contacts Economic and Employment Division Isabelle Sahakian, Head of the Observatory and Territorial Promotion Department Malika Bouatba, Special Advisor, Observatory and Territorial Promotion Sophie Pradayrol, Project leader, Territorial Promotion Mail: deveco@hauts-de-seine.fr Phone: +33 (0) , bd Soufflot Nanterre Cedex - Phone: +33 (0) Newsletter produced by the CBRE Research Department Phone: +33 (0) Mail: etude@cbre.fr 8