Birth masculinity in the Western Balkans

Transcription

1 Birth masculinity in the Western Balkans Birth Masculinity: Measurements Issues in SE Europe CZ Guilmoto CEPED 1 2 Primary sources Sex ratio at birth: annual birth registration Child sex ratio: censuses Survey-base estimates Limitations: Birth registration series by sex not systematically available; missing during conflict periods Change in political/ administrative definition Missing censuses Small sample in surveys SRB series: major issues BiH, KOS, MK, GR, SRB, TR: incomplete series with missing years (conflict, new administrative entities, unpublished) KOS, ALB: potential (selective?) underreporting KOS, BiH: no recent census (KOS 2011) CG: small number of annual births 4 1

2 Countries considered National trends in Southeast Europe 5 Stable countries: Albania, Bulgaria, Greece, Romania Changing administration, but stable borders: Croatia, Macedonia (FYROM), Montenegro Changing borders or new entities: Bosnia Herzegovina (RS), Serbia, Kosovo Also included for comparison: Turkey Excluded: Slovenia, Hungary, and other 6 adjacent countries SRB: 3-year moving averages Three categories 1. No significant deviation from the biological standard: Bulgaria, Romania, Turkey 2. Ambiguous cases: Bosnia Herzegovina, Croatia, Greece, Serbia, 3. Confirmed cases of skewed sex ratio at birth: Albania, Kosovo, Macedonia, Montenegro 7 8 2

3 Business as usual Isolated hikes CRO: 1991 beginning of conflict BiH: 1992 beginning of conflict BiH, CRO: 1995 last year of conflict SRB: 1999 Belgrade bombing 9 10 The hypothesis of war conditions Clear differences Except for BiH, war conditions have not been shown to exert a significant effect on SRB MG: Collapse of Yugoslavia ALB: 1997 riots 108 KOS: 2000 end of the conflit MK: 2001 Albanian insurgency Did the Wars in the Former Yugoslavia affect Sex Ratio at Birth?, European 11 Journal of Epidemiology, Volume 21, Number 1 /

4 SRB in affected countries Country / regions SRB period Data type East and South East Asia China (Mainland) Census estimate Viet Nam Annual demographic survey South Asia India Sample registration Caucasus Azerbaijan Birth registration Armenia Birth registration Georgia Birth registration Southeast Europe Albania Birth registration Montenegro Birth registration Kosovo Birth registration Macedonia Birth registration Rest of Europe and North America Asian or Albanian diasporas Special studies Spatial and ethnic disparities in affected countries (child sex ratios) 14 Kosovo No census data Birth registration data based on 31 municipalities (Komuna or opština) are available only from 2005 and correspond to limited samples: no mapping possible No disaggregated analysis possible at this stage Child sex ratio below 10 Boys per 100 girls Bogovinje Vrapchishte Debar > to to < 105 all others Tetovo Gostivar Zajas Ohrid Teartse Brvenitsa Plasnitsa Jegunovtse Saraj Zhelino Oslomej Vraneshtitsa Demir Hisar Studenichani Krushevo Lipkovo Chucher - Sandevo Bitola Centar Mogila Ilinden Zelenikovo Chashka Prilep Kumanovo Veles Macedonia, 2002 Sveti Nikole Lozovo Rankovtse Kratovo Kavadartsi Shtip Negotino Sex ratio below 10 years 84 municipalities (Opštine/Општини ) Kriva Palanka Kochani Zrnovtsi Radovish Konche Vinitsa Vasilevo Delchevo Berovo Bosilovo Pehchevo Resen

5 Macedonia Macedonia: preliminary conclusions Modest but undeniable SRB imbalance SRB distribution greatly varies across opštine in 2002 Close association between Albanian percentage and higher SRB SRB =111 among Albanians and 105 in the rest of the population? Child sex ratio boys per 100 girls > to to < 105 all others Children under 5 Herceg Novi Kotor Tivat Pluţine Nikšic Cetinje Budva 2003 Census Various child sex ratios 21 municipalities (opštine) Pljevlja Ţabljak Šavnik Danilovgrad Bar Mojkovac Kolašin Podgorica Ulcinj Children under 10 Bijelo Polje Berane Andrijevica Plav Roţaje Children under Montenegro: preliminary conclusion Distinct SRB imbalance in the country Small number of populations/births is a source of difficulty Slightly visible geographical patterns towards East and South No Albanian association in Ulcinj Weak association with Muslims/Bosniak and negative association with Serbian (vs. Montenegrin) population 20 5

6 Malësi e Madhe Tropojë Has Shkodër Pukë Kukës Albania SRB, Catholics (1918) and dialects Lezhë Mirditë Dibër Kurbin Mat Krujë Bulqizë Durrës Tiranë Librazhd Kavajë Elbasan Peqin Pogradec Lushnjë Gramsh Fier Kuçovë Korçë Berat Devoll Mallakastër Skrapar Tepelenë Kolonjë Vlorë Përmet Child sex ratio below 10 Boys per 100 girls > to to < 105 all others 2001 Census SR under districts (Rrethet) Malësi e Madhe Shkodër Kurbin Durrës Kavajë Lezhë Krujë Tiranë Peqin Lushnjë Fier Mallakastër Kuçovë Tropojë Pukë Mirditë Mat Elbasan Berat Has Kukës Dibër Gramsh Skrapar Bulqizë Librazhd Pogradec Korçë Devoll Gjirokastër Vlorë Tepelenë Përmet Kolonjë Delvinë Gjirokastër Delvinë Sarandë 21 Sarandë 22 Albania: preliminary conclusions Distinct geographical variations in SRB levels within the country Complex patterns including northern highlands and littoral areas as high SRB areas Rather weak association with presumed distribution of Catholics No visible association with socio-cultural variables (linguistic, age at marriage) or economic development (HDI) 23 What we know Cultural determinants may predominate over other social or economic factors Birth masculinity in SE Europe has a distinct Albanian flavor The SRB of Albanian immigrants in Greece and Italy is also close to

7 What we don t know Exact situation and timing of inception and intensification in several countries Mechanisms of sex selection: parity, previous births, methods used, role of private vs. public facilities Variations in discriminatory practices by SES and other variables Specific dimensions of gender discrimination (old and new forms) conducive to prenatal discrimination and potential effect of social change Thank you, merci, Hvala, Благодаря, Falemenderit, Mulţumesc, Ευχαριστώ, Tesekkür ederim, Благодарам, etc