The Regional Balkans Infrastructure Study (REBIS) Update

Transcription

1 Public Disclosure Authorized Report No ECA The Regional Balkans Infrastructure Study (REBIS) Update Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized ENHANCING REGIONAL CONNECTIVITY Identifying Impediments and Priority Remedies ANNEXES September 2015 Public Disclosure Authorized

2 2015 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development 1818 H Street NW Washington DC Telephone: Internet: feedback@worldbank.org All rights reserved This document has been produced with the financial assistance of the European Western Balkans Joint Fund under the Western Balkans Investment Framework. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and can therefore in no way be taken to reflect the official opinion of the Contributors to the European Western Balkans Joint Fund or the EBRD and the EIB, as co-managers of the European Western Balkans Joint Fund. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Board of Executive Directors of The World Bank or the governments they represent. World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of the World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Rights and Permissions The material in this publication is copyrighted. Copying and/or transmitting portions or all of this work without permission may be a violation of applicable law. The World Bank encourages dissemination of its work and will normally grant permission promptly. Short extracts from this publication may be reproduced unaltered without authorization, on condition that the source is indicated. For permission to photocopy or reprint any part of this work, please send a request with complete information to the Copyright Clearance Center Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA USA; telephone: ; fax: ; Internet: All other queries on rights, licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to the Office of the Publisher; the World Bank, 1818 H street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: ; pubrights@worldbank.org

3 Acknowledgments This report was prepared by a World Bank team based on a study undertaken by the consortium of Systema Transport Planning & Engineering Consultants Ltd and WYG with financing from the Western Balkans Investment Framework (WBIF). The Directorate General for Mobility and Transport (DG Move) of the European Commission (EC) provided overall direction. The World Bank (WB) core team was led by Baher El-Hifnawi and consisted of Liljana Sekerinska, Evgenia Epaneshnikova and Nargis Ryskulova. The extended team included Artan Guxho, Desa Stanić, Dragana Varezić, Elda Hafizi, Emre Eser, Ivana Bojić, Luan Aliu, Jean-Francois Marteau, Alexandar Rowland and Senad Sačić. The Systema/Wyg team was led by Dimitrios Tsamboulas and Athanasios Ballis and included Maja Popovic, Michael Thomas, Lauri Ojala, George Emmanoulopoulos, Keith Cook, Yanni Papapanagiotou and Natalia Tselenti. The study benefitted from comments from the Peer Reviewers: Ana Simecki (DG NEAR, EC), Benedictus Eijbergen, Doerte Doemeland, Olivier Le Ber and Shomik Mehndiratta; and Raymond Bourdeaux (World Bank). World Bank Management: Juan Gaviria, Ellen Goldstein and Andras Horvai provided guidance and comments on the successive report versions. The team would like to express its appreciation to the SEETO Steering Committee and its Secretariat for many discussions and comments provided during the course of the study. The team would particularly like to thank the Secretariat for the coordination role it played with the Regional Participants and for providing access to data and information, without which the study would not have been possible. Thanks are also due to the many government officials from the SEETO Regional Participants and Croatia who took the time to attend progress review meetings and comment on the different reports and versions. The Bank team is grateful for the guidance received from Alain Baron and Florian Achleitner of the EC s DG Move as well as from other EU Directorates and EU Delegations to SEETO Regional Participants. The Bank team would also like to thank the team for the EU-financed study: Accessibility improved at border crossings for the integration of South East Europe (ACROSSEE) for fruitful discussions and for sharing data and results from the study.

4 Abbreviations and Acronyms AADT Average Daily Traffic AEO Authorized Economic Operator BCP Border Crossing Point BiH Bosnia and Herzegovina C/BC Customs and border crossings CEF Connecting Europe Facility CEFTA Central European Free Trade Agreement DG Directorate General EC European Commission EEA European Economic Area ERTMS European Rail Traffic Management System EU European Union FDI Foreign Direct Investment GDP Gross Domestic Product GIS Geographic Information System HGV Heavy Goods Vehicle IATA International Air Transport Association IM Inter/multimodal transport IMF International Monetary Fund IPA Instrument for Pre-Accession Assistance IRU International Road Transport Union IT Information technology IWW Inland Waterways LNG Liquefied Natural Gas MAP Multi Plan M/IWW Maritime and/or Inland Waterways NC National Coordinators NCTS New Computerized Transit System OECD Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development REBIS Regional Balkans Infrastructure Study RO-RO Roll-on/Roll-off Passenger RP Regional Participants SC Steering Committee SEE South East Europe SEETO South East Europe Transport Observatory SQL Structured Query Language TEN-T Trans-European Transport Network TEU Twenty-foot Equivalent Unit TTF Trade and Transport Facilitation TTFSE Transport Facilitation Projects in South East Europe WB WBIF World Bank Western Balkans Investment Framework Regional Vice President: Country Director: Senior Director: Practice Manager: Project Team Leader: Cyril E. Muller Ellen Goldstein Pierre Guislain Juan Gaviria Baher El-Hifnawi

5 Table of Contents ANNEX I: REBIS Growth Rates... 1 ANNEX II: Model Results Do-nothing Scenario ANNEX III: Model Results the Full SEETO Scenario ANNEX IIIa: Sections with Highest Traffic Projections /Traffic Growth ANNEX IV: Comparison between the Do-nothing and the Full SEETO Scenario ANNEX V: Capacity Considerations for the Road Network ANNEX VI: Road Section Grouping by Intervention ANNEX VII: Possible Interventions to Increase Capacity of the Railway Network ANNEX VIIa: Rail Section Grouping by Intervention ANNEX VIII: Comparison of Capacities Against Traffic Flows in for Maritime and River Ports ANNEX IX: Assessment of the 2003 REBIS Traffic Projections List of Tables Table AI 1. GDP Growth Rates per Country/Regional Participant (percentage)... 3 Table AI 2. Key Variables Projection to (GDP, Population (POP) and Employment (JOB)) by Country and by Traffic Zone... 5 Table AI 3. Growth Factors for Air Transport Table AI 4. Growth Factors for IWW Transport Table AI 5. Growth Factors for Maritime Ports Table AII 1. Do-nothing Low/Moderate Economic Growth Rate, Traffic Volumes Road Network Table AII. 2. Do-nothing Moderate/High Economic Growth Rate, Traffic Volumes Road Network Table AII. 3. Do-nothing Low/Moderate Economic Growth Rate, Traffic Volumes Rail Network Table AII. 4. Do-nothing Moderate/High Economic Growth Rate, Traffic Volumes Rail Network Table AII. 5. Do-nothing Traffic Volumes IWW (low/moderate economic rate)... 53

6 Table AII. 6. Do-nothing Traffic Volumes IWW (moderate/high economic rate) Table AII. 7. Do-nothing Traffic Volumes River ports (low/moderate economic rate) Table AII. 8. Do-nothing Traffic Volumes River ports (moderate/high economic rate) Table AII. 9. Do-nothing Traffic Volumes Seaports (low/moderate economic rate) Table AII. 10. Do-nothing Traffic Volumes Seaports (moderate/high economic rate) Table AII. 11. Do-nothing Traffic Volumes Airports for the Low/Moderate Economic Growth Rate Table AII. 12. Do-nothing Traffic Volumes Airports for the Moderate/High Economic Growth Rate Table AII. 13. Do-nothing Traffic Volumes Airports Direct and Indirect Traffic for the Low/Moderate Economic Growth Rate Table AII. 14. Do-nothing Traffic Volumes Airports Direct and Indirect Traffic for the Moderate/High Economic Growth Rate Table AIII. 1. Full SEETO Low/Moderate Economic Growth Rate Traffic Volumes Road Network Table AIII. 2. Full SEETO Moderate/High Economic Growth Rate Traffic Volumes Road Network Table AIII. 3. Full SEETO Low/Moderate Economic Growth Rate Traffic Volumes Rail Network Table AIII. 4. Full SEETO Moderate/High Economic Growth Rate Traffic Volumes Rail Network Table AIIIa. 1.Road Sections with the Highest Traffic Flows for and/or Highest Growth Rates for the Low/Moderate Growth Rate Scenario Table AIIIa. 2.Road Sections with the Highest Traffic Flows for and/or Highest Growth Rates for the Moderate/High Growth Rate Scenario Table AIIIa. 3. Rail Sections with the Highest Traffic Projections in for the Low/Moderate Growth Rate Scenario Table AIIIa. 4. Rail Sections with Highest Growth in Number of Passengers in for the Low/Moderate Rate Scenario Table AIIIa. 5. Rail sections with Hhighest Growth in Number of Tons in for the Low/Moderate Growth Rate Scenario Table AIIIa. 6. Rail Sections with the Highest Traffic Projections in for the Moderate/High Growth Rate Scenario Table AIIIa. 7. Rail Sections with Highest Growth in Number of Passengers in for the Moderate/High Growth Rate Scenario Table AIIIa. 8. Rail Sections with the Highest Growth in Number of Tons in for the Moderate/High Growth Rate Scenario

7 Table AIV. 1. Comparison Results for the Road Network (low/moderate economic rate) Table AIV. 2. Comparison Results for the Road Network (moderate/high economic rate) Table AIV. 3. Comparison Results for the Rail Network (low/moderate economic rate) Table AIV. 4. Comparison Results for the Rail Network (moderate/high economic rate) Table AV. 1. Modified Estimated Capacity Levels for 2x2-Lane Highway in AADT Vehicles/Day Table AV. 2. Modified Estimated Capacity Levels for High Class 2-Lane Road in AADT Vehicles/Day Table AVI. 1. Proposed Interventions for the Existing SEETO Comprehensive RoadINetwork for both Economic Growth Scenario Table AVIIa. 1. Rail sections with Minor Capacity Constraints for the Low/Moderate Economic Growth Rate Scenario Table AVIIa. 2. Rail Sections with Significant Capacity Constraints for the Low/Moderate Economic Growth Rate Scenario Table AVIIa. 3. Rail Sections with Major Capacity Constraints for the Low/Moderate Economic Growth Rate Scenario Table AVIIa. 4. Rail Sections with Minor Capacity Constraints for the Moderate/High Economic Growth Rate Scenario Table AVIIa. 5. Rail Sections with Significant Capacity Constraints for the Moderate/High Economic Growth Rate Scenario Table AVIIa. 6. Rail Sections with Major Capacity Constraints for the Moderate/High Economic Growth Rate Scenario Table AVIII. 1. Comparison of Calculated Maritime port Capacities against Traffic Forecasts for the Low/Moderate Scenario Table AVIII. 2. Comparison of Calculated Maritime Port Capacities against Traffic Forecasts for the Moderate/High Scenario Table AVIII. 3. Comparison of Calculated IWW Port Capacities against Traffic Forecasts: Ports of Serbia (low/moderate scenario) Table AVIII. 4. Comparison of Calculated IWW Port Capacities against Traffic Forecasts: Ports of Croatia (low/moderate scenario) Table AVIII. 5. Comparison of Calculated IWW Port Capacities against Traffic Forecasts: Ports of Bosnia & Herzegovina (low/moderate scenario) Table AVIII. 6. Comparison of Calculated IWW Port Capacities against Traffic Forecasts: Ports of Serbia (moderate/high scenario) Table AVIII. 7. Comparison of Calculated IWW Port Capacities against Traffic Forecasts: Ports of Croatia (moderate/high scenario) Table AVIII. 8. Comparison of Calculated IWW Port Capacities against Traffic Forecasts: Ports of Bosnia & Herzegovina (moderate/high scenario)

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9 ANNEX I: REBIS Growth Rates Annex I: Growth Factors 1

10 Introduction: Estimation of Growth Rates 1. A transport planning model was developed to forecast transport flows from/to SEETO Regional Participants and Croatia for year. 2. Socio-economic data for the base and future years is used to forecast transport flows in a specific area. In this model, the socioeconomic variables included gross domestic product (GDP), population size and number of jobs. With regard to estimating the base year freight flows, historical data, provided by several sources such as EUROSTAT, International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank, is used. Concerning projections for the future year of, projections for the variables mentioned above are developed. The data used and the process followed for the projection of GDP, Population and Jobs for years are described below. GDP 3. The GDP of each zone is considered a major factor affecting transport flows. GDP projections for 2014, 2015 and 2019 are based on the IMF s 2014 World Economic Outlook. Projections from 2020 to were developed by the study team in consultation with the World Bank team taking into account current and recent economic conditions in the region and the prospects given the stages of economic development of the different countries. Higher rates were used to reflect higher intensity of economic activities in zones (e.g. capitals, ports, industrial areas, etc.). 4. The economic rates of the past few years were taken into account and adjusted upwards to reflect the negative rates in some countries/regional Participants at the present time. These were adjusted to reflect a long-term sustainable rate given the stage of the economic development. GDP rates were estimated for two scenarios: low/moderate and moderate/high. Table AI.1 below presents the annual rate projections for each of the Regional Participants/countries. 5. The estimated rates have been used for the estimation of GDP of the zones included in the model. 6. For the zones that belong to one or more countries, the GDP rate was set equal to the average of GDP rates of the countries included. 7. The GDP rate of inner zones, which are part of one Regional Participant, was estimated based on GDP rate of the country with following adjustments made. More specifically, the GDP rate has been adjusted upwards for the following types of areas/ zones: o o o o Capitals of countries/ major cities Port areas/ ports Touristic areas Industrial areas (determined based on the development plans of the examined countries where available). Annex I: Growth Factors 2

11 8. Finally, the rate of the remaining areas has been adjusted downwards to maintain the same average rate of each country as initially estimated. 9. The adjustment of the rate has been refined based on experts input in order to reflect the expected in the different areas. Table AI. 1. GDP Growth Rates per Country/Regional Participant (percentage) Projections Average (2020-) Low/ Moderate/ Moderate High Albania Bosnia and Herzegovina Croatia Kosovo The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia Montenegro Serbia Sources: Actual figures for and projections for and 2019 are based on: IMF. (2014) World Economic Outlook: Legacies, Clouds, Uncertainties. Available from: average projections for the period are based on study team s assessment and consultation with the World Bank team. Population 10. Population projections for each of the regional percipients/countries were obtained from the World Bank s population datasets. 1 The estimated rates have been used for the estimation of population of the zones included in the model. 11. Concerning the zones including one or more countries, the rate of population has been set equal to the average of the particular rates of the countries included. 12. Population rate of inner zones, which are part of one country, was estimated based on population rate of the country with following adjustments made. More specifically, the GDP rate has been adjusted upwards for the following types of areas/ zones: o Capitals of countries/ major cities o Touristic areas 1 The World Bank. (2013) Population Estimates and Projections. Available from: Annex I: Growth Factors 3

12 o Selected port areas (based on their specific characteristics) 13. As in the GDP analysis, the adjustment of the rate has been refined based on experts input in order to reflect the expected in the specific areas. Finally, the rate of the remaining areas has been adjusted downwards to maintain the same average rate of each country as initially estimated. Employment 14. The third socio-economic variable used in the model is called JOBS, representing the employment in the examined areas. There are no datasets for future projections of employment. Therefore, employment rates were estimated based on accepted empirical relationships between economic and employment (employment intensity). The rate of the employment in the examined areas for year has been estimated according to the estimates of employment intensity for Europe and OKUN s empirical formula (OKUN s law: an empirically observed relationship between unemployment and economic in each country). More specifically, a two percent increase or decrease of GDP was projected to lead to a one percent increase or decrease of employment in the examined areas. Based on this assumption, the accumulated rate of the employment has been estimated, based on the accumulated GDP rate, estimated for each zone, and using the formula mentioned above. 15. However, considering that the formula would not always represent the existing situation appropriately and in order to avoid an overestimation, an upper limit of the estimated employment was determined. This was based on the principle that the full employment could not exceed the 60 percent of total population. As a result, in cases that the estimated employment of a zone exceeded the 60 percent of population, the variable was set equal to 60 percent of the zone s population. Annex I: Growth Factors 4

13 Table AI 1. Key Variables Projection to (GDP, Population (POP) and Employment (JOB)) by Country and by Traffic Zone Traffic zones Growth factors (percentage) rates (percentage) Low/ Moderate Moderate/High Low/ Moderate Moderate/High GDP POP JOB GDP POP JOB GDP POP JOB GDP POP JOB 1 Bosnian Podrinje Central Bosnia Herzegovina-Neretva Posavina Sarajevo Tuzla Una-Sana West Bosnia West Herzegovina Zenica-Doboj Banja Luka Doboj Bijeljina Vlasenica Sarajevo-Romanija Foca Trebinje Grad Zagreb Zagrebacka zupanija Krapinsko-zagorska zupanija Varazdinska zupanija Koprivnicko-krizevacka zupanija Medimurska zupanija Annex I: Growth Factors 5

14 24 25 Traffic zones Growth factors (percentage) rates (percentage) Bjelovarsko-bilogorska zupanija Viroviticko-podravska zupanija Low/ Moderate Moderate/High Low/ Moderate Moderate/High Pozesko-slavonska zupanija Brodsko-posavska zupanija Osjecko-baranjska zupanija Vukovarsko-srijemska zupanija 30 Karlovacka zupanija Sisacko-moslavacka zupanija Primorsko-goranska zupanija Licko-senjska zupanija Zadarska zupanija Sibensko-kninska zupanija Splitsko-dalmatinska zupanija Istarska zupanija Dubrovacko-neretvanska 38 zupanija Kotor Tivat Budva Bar Ulcinj Nikšic Cetinje Danilovgrad Podgorica Annex I: Growth Factors 6

15 Traffic zones Growth factors (percentage) rates (percentage) Low/ Moderate Moderate/High Low/ Moderate Moderate/High 48 Pljevlja Plužine Žabljak Šavnik Bijelo Polje Mojkovac Kolašin Berane Andrijevica Rožaje Plav Shkodër Kukës Lezhë Dibër Durrës Tirana Fier Elbasan Berat Vlorë Gjirokastër Korçë Grad Beograd Borski okrug Branicevski okrug Annex I: Growth Factors 7

16 Traffic zones Growth factors (percentage) rates (percentage) Low/ Moderate Moderate/High Low/ Moderate Moderate/High 75 Jablanicki okrug Kolubarski okrug Macvanski okrug Moravicki okrug Nišavski okrug Pcinjski okrug Pirotski okrug Podunavski okrug Pomoravski okrug Rasinski okrug Raški okrug Šumadijski okrug Toplicki okrug Zajecarski okrug Zlatiborski okrug Srednje-banatski okrug Severnobacki okrug Severno-banatski okrug Južnobacki okrug Južno-banatski okrug Sremski okrug Zapadno-backi okrug Prishtine Gnjilane Mitrovice Pece Annex I: Growth Factors 8

17 Traffic zones Growth factors (percentage) rates (percentage) Low/ Moderate Moderate/High Low/ Moderate Moderate/High 101 Prizren Vardarski (provisional code) Istocen (provisional code) Jugozapaden (provisional code) 105 Jugoistocen (provisional code) 106 Pelagoniski (provisional code) 107 Poloski (provisional code) Severoistocen (provisional code) 109 Skopski (provisional code) Herceg Novi Source: The World Bank Team estimates Annex I: Growth Factors 9

18 Table AI 2. Growth Factors for Air Transport Low/Moderate Scenario Moderate/High Scenario Avg GDP rate () rate () in traffic Air passenger factor Avg GDP rate () rate () in traffic Air passenger factor Country - Elasticity Elasticity ALB BIH CRO KOS MKD MNE SRB Source: The World Bank Team estimates 16. The traffic projections for IWW and seaport were estimated using existing () traffic volumes and estimated factors for IWW transport and maritime ports. For IWW only national data for each Regional Participant was used as a model input. Thus, the estimation of traffic projections for the IWW sections is based on a single factor for each Regional Participant, rather than a different factor for each port. These factors were estimated based on GDP and population projections. Avg GDP rate () - rate () in passenger traffic - Table AI 3. Growth Factors for IWW Transport Low/Moderate Scenario Passenger factor - rate () in freight traffic - Freight factor -30 Avg GDP rate () - Moderate/High Scenario rate () in passenger traffic - Passenger factor - rate () in freight traffic - Freight factor -30 Country BIH CRO SRB Source: The World Bank Team estimates (GDP and elasticities) and Consultant s estimates ( factors) 17. For passenger traffic at maritime ports, different factors for each port were used, depending on its characteristics. More specifically, the level of tourism was taken into account, as well as the proximity to significant tourist attractions. To this end, for example, the port of Dubrovnik was assumed to have higher factors due to the fact that the city is a major touristic attraction and is expected to continue to be a major destination for international passenger traffic. For the ports of Ploce and Rijeka, which both have a strong freight orientation, lower factors for passenger traffic were assumed. With regards to the port of Bar, which is the main Montenegro port, it is believed to have a high potential to attract tourist flows with some capacity for cargo, while the port of Durres in Albania is already serving a significant number of passengers. Annex I: Growth Factors 10

19 Port rate () in passenger traffic - Table AI 4. Growth Factors for Maritime Ports Low/Moderate Scenario rate () Passenger in freight traffic factor - - Freight factor -30 rate () in passenger traffic - Moderate/High Scenario rate () Passenger in freight factor traffic - - Freight factor - 30 Country ALB Durres ALB Vlore CRO Dubrovnik CRO Ploce CRO Pula CRO Rijeka CRO Sibenik CRO Split CRO Zadar MON Bar Source: Consultant s estimates Annex I: Growth Factors 11

20 ANNEX II: Model Results Do-nothing Scenario Annex II: Model results Do-nothing Scenario 12

21 Model Results for the Road Network Do-nothing Scenario Table AII 1. Do-nothing Low/Moderate Economic Growth Rate, Traffic Volumes Road Network Country From To SEETO CRO Bosiljevo 2 Ogulin R ,272 13, ,311 12, CRO Ogulin Brinje R ,272 12, ,311 11, CRO Brinje Zuta Lokva R ,272 12, ,311 11, CRO Zuta Lokva Otocac R ,722 12, ,612 11, , CRO Otocac Perusic R ,722 11, ,612 11, , CRO Perusic Gospic R ,722 11, ,612 10, , CRO Gospic Gornja Ploca R ,722 11, ,612 10, , CRO Gornja Ploca Sveti Rok R ,722 12, ,612 11, , CRO Sveti Rok Maslenica R ,722 12, ,612 11, , CRO Maslenica Posedarje R ,722 12, ,612 11, , CRO Posedarje Zadar 1 R ,722 12, ,612 11, , CRO Zadar 1 Zadar 2 R ,278 9, ,292 9, CRO Zadar 2 Benkovac R ,278 10, ,292 9, CRO Benkovac Pirovac R ,278 9, ,292 8, CRO Pirovac Skradin R ,278 8, ,292 7, CRO Skradin Sibenik R ,278 8, ,292 8, CRO Sibenik Vrpolje R ,015 8, ,885 7, , CRO Vrpolje Prgomet R ,015 8, ,885 7, , CRO Prgomet Vucevica R ,015 7, ,885 6, , CRO Vucevica Dugopolje R ,015 7, ,885 6, , Annex II: Model results for the road network Do-Nothing Scenario 13

22 Country From To SEETO CRO Opuzen Klek R1.04 8,266 5, ,511 4, CRO Neum Northwest Neum SouthEast R1.05 8,266 7, CRO Dugopolje Bisko R ,977 8, ,117 7, CRO Bisko Blato (na Cestini) R ,977 6, ,117 5, CRO Blato (na Cestini) Sestanovac R ,977 6, ,117 5, CRO Sestanovac Zagvozd R ,977 5, ,117 4, CRO Zagvozd Ravca R ,930 3, ,070 3, CRO Ravca Vrgorac R ,930 2, ,070 2, CRO Vrgorac Mali Prolog R ,930 2, ,070 2, CRO Mali Prolog Cevljusa R ,930 1, ,070 1, CRO XY Zaton Doli R ,266 4, ,511 4, CRO Zaton Doli Slano R ,266 4, ,511 4, CRO Slano Dubrovnik R ,137 7, ,372 6, CRO Dubrovnik Cibasa R ,132 11, ,367 11, CRO Cibasa Karasovici R ,459 1, ,227 1, CRO Karasovici Karasovici R ,459 1, ,227 1, MNE Debeli Brijeg Igalo R1.08 3,459 3, MNE Igalo Kamenari R ,109 13,780 2,329 CRO Zadar (port) Zadar Port R ,590 6, ,099 5, CRO Sibenik Sibenik R ,127 7, ,676 7, CRO Dugopolje Split (port) R ,107 22, ,645 20, ,462 1, MNE Kamenari Raskrnica E65 R ,109 13,780 2,329 MNE Raskrnica E65 Tivat (airport) R ,104 9,182 1,923 MNE Raskrnica E65 Budva R ,477 11, ,316 10, , Annex II: Model results for the road network Do-Nothing Scenario 14

23 Country From To SEETO MNE Budva Petrovac R ,266 10, ,991 9, , MNE Petrovac Misici R ,586 12,311 1,274 MNE Misici Bar R ,741 20,184 2,558 CRO Pula Vodnjan R ,030 4, ,518 4, CRO Vodnjan Kanfanar R ,030 6, ,518 5, CRO Kanfanar Zminj R ,030 4, ,518 4, CRO Zminj Rogovici R ,030 4, ,518 3, CRO Rogovici Ivoli R ,030 5, ,518 5, CRO Ivoli Cerovlje R ,030 6, ,518 5, CRO Cerovlje Lupoglav R ,030 6, ,518 5, CRO Lupoglav Vranja R ,030 6, ,518 6, CRO Vranja Veprinac R ,030 7, ,518 6, CRO Veprinac Matulji R ,030 7, ,518 6, CRO Rijeka Draga R ,061 16, ,610 14, ,451 1, CRO Draga Sveti Kuzam R ,061 13, ,610 12, ,451 1, CRO Sveti Kuzam Bakar R ,713 4, ,354 4, CRO Bakar Smrika R ,713 4, ,354 4, CRO Smrika Senj R ,713 7, ,354 6, CRO Senj Zuta Lokva R ,784 3, ,270 3, CRO Okucani Nova Gradiska R2a.01 8,072 3, ,497 2, , BIH Gradiska Klasnice R2a.02 17,870 12, ,247 10, ,623 2, BIH Klasnice Banja Luka R2a.03 35,455 28,368 7,088 BIH Banja Luka Jajce R2a.04 4,720 3, ,696 2, , BIH Jajce Donji Vakuf R2a.05 4,417 2, ,563 2, Annex II: Model results for the road network Do-Nothing Scenario 15

24 Country From To SEETO BIH Donji Vakuf Travnik R2a.06 4,417 2, ,563 2, BIH Travnik Lasva R2a.07 8,282 13, ,888 12, , BIH Sarajevo Dobro Polje R2b.01 5,371 3, ,158 3, BIH Dobro Polje Brod na Drini/Foca R2b.02 2,188 1, BIH Brod na Drini/Foca Hum R2b.03 4,119 3, MNE Scepan Polje Pluzine R2b.04 1,175 1, MNE Pluzine Sipacno R2b.05 4,630 4, MNE Sipacno Niksic R2b.06 4,630 4, MNE Niksic Danilovgrad R2b.07 12,111 10,283 1,828 MNE Danilovgrad Podgorica R2b.08 13,972 8, ,888 7, , MNE Podgorica Tuzi R2b.09 14,912 12,454 2,458 MNE Tuzi Bozaj R2b.10 6,672 5,083 1,589 ALB Hani i Hotit Shkoder R2b.11 6, ,083 1, ALB Shkoder Lezhe R2b.12 14,046 8, ,926 6, ,120 1, ALB Lezhe Milot R2b.13 14,046 10, ,926 8, ,120 2, ALB Milot Mamurras R2b.14 19,463 13, ,856 10, ,607 2, ALB Mamurras Fushe Kruje R2b.15 19,463 13, ,856 10, ,607 2, ALB Fushe Kruje Vore R2b.16 22,016 11, ,856 7, ,160 4, ALB Fier Tepelene R2c.1 6,139 2, ,573 1, ,566 1, ALB Tepelene Gjirokaster R2c.2 5,868 3, ,725 3, , ALB Gjirokaster Kakavija R2c.3 7,403 3, ,393 3, , BIH Sarajevo Pale R ,038 14,536 2,502 BIH Pale Mesici R3.02 4,474 3, ,232 3, BIH Mesici Ustipraca R3.03 2,905 2, Annex II: Model results for the road network Do-Nothing Scenario 16

25 Country From To SEETO BIH Ustipraca Medjedja R3.04 2,905 2, BIH Medjedja Visegrad R3.05 6,539 5,271 1,268 BIH Visegrad Donja Vardiste R3.06 2,905 2, SRB Kotroman Kremna R3.07 2,905 1, , SRB Kremna Uzice R3.08 2,905 2, ,626 1, SRB Vatin Vrsac R4.01 1,543 1, , SRB Vrsac Pancevo R4.02 4,993 4, ,575 3, SRB Pancevo Belgrade R ,155 17, ,595 14, ,560 3, SRB Belgrade Belgrade (Cukarica) R ,643 22, ,071 20, ,572 2, SRB Belgrade (Cukarica) Orlovaca R ,643 22, ,071 20, ,572 2, SRB Orlovaca Lazarevac R ,543 12, ,470 11, ,074 1, SRB Lazarevac Ljig R ,086 7, ,458 6, ,628 1, SRB Ljig Rudnik R ,086 6, ,458 4, ,628 1, SRB Rudnik Gornji Milanovac R ,720 8, ,710 7, ,010 1, SRB Gornji Milanovac Cacak R ,720 11, ,710 10, ,010 1, SRB Cacak Pozega R ,371 9, ,799 8, ,572 1, SRB Pozega Uzice R ,361 9, ,390 8, SRB Uzice Nova Varos R4.13 5,686 4, ,943 3, SRB Nova Varos Prijepolje R4.14 5,686 3, ,943 3, SRB Prijepolje Gostun R4.15 2,719 3, ,036 2, MNE Dobrakovo Bijelo Polje R4.16 2,719 2, MNE Bijelo Polje Mojkovac R4.17 7,648 3, ,276 3, , MNE Mojkovac Kolasin R4.18 7,553 6,209 1,344 MNE Kolasin Mioska R4.19 7,390 5,991 1,399 Annex II: Model results for the road network Do-Nothing Scenario 17

26 Country From To SEETO MNE Mioska Bioce R4.20 7,420 6,028 1,392 MNE Bioce Podgorica R4.21 7,069 4, ,683 4, , MNE Podgorica Virpazar R ,854 6, ,571 5, , MNE Virpazar Sotonici R ,854 6, ,571 6, , MNE Sotonici Misici R ,854 6, ,571 5, ,284 1, SRB Paracin Boljevac R5.01 3,581 2, ,828 2, SRB Boljevac Zajecar R ,585 2, ,041 2, SRB Zajecar Vrska Cuka R5.06 2,350 1, ,223 1, SRB Cacak Kraljevo R ,088 8, ,550 7, ,538 1, SRB Kraljevo Beranovac R ,716 13, ,013 13, SRB Beranovac Krusevac R ,391 6, ,688 6, SBR Krusevac Pojate R5.09 6,795 5, ,696 5, , MNE Bijelo Polje Berane R6.01 6,221 5, MNE Berane Rozaje R6.02 2,929 2, MNE Rozaje Spiljani R6.03 3,151 2, SRB Spiljani Ribarice R6.04 3,151 1, ,789 1, SRB Ribarice Banje R6.05 1,407 1, , KOS Banje Mitrovice/Mitrovica R6.06 1, , KOS Mitrovice/Mitrovica Pristina R ,392 14, ,140 11, ,251 2, KOS Pristina Lipljan R ,718 28, ,984 22, ,734 5, KOS Lipljan Gerlice/Donja R ,169 17, ,898 13, ,271 3, Grlica KOS Gerlice/Donja Grlica Kacanik R ,452 8, ,781 7, ,671 1, Annex II: Model results for the road network Do-Nothing Scenario 18

27 Country From To SEETO KOS Kacanik Hani i R6.11 8,852 3, ,181 3, , Elezit/Djeneral Jankovic MKD Hani i Stenkovec R6.12 6,679 3, ,181 2, Elezit/Djeneral Jankovic KOS Pristina Sllatine/Slatina R6b.01 37,897 26, ,729 19, ,168 6, KOS Sllatine/Slatina Peje/Pec R6b.02 4,369 18, ,781 16, , KOS Peje/Pec Beluhe R6b.03 5,237 3, ,179 2, , MNE Beluhe Murino R6b MNE Murino Andrijevica R6b.05 1,493 1, MNE Andrijevica Matesevo R6b MNE Matesevo Kolasin R6b ALB Milot Rreshen R ,486 11, ,998 11, , ALB Rreshen Kalimash R ,515 9, ,312 8, , ALB Kalimash Morine R ,848 8, ,312 8, KOS Vermice/Vrbnica Prizren R ,175 14, ,463 11, , KOS Prizren Suhareke/Suva R ,811 16, ,383 13, ,428 3, Reka KOS Suhareke/Suva raleve/crnoljevo R ,811 15, ,383 12, ,428 3, Reka KOS raleve/crnoljevo Lipljan R ,081 9, ,553 8, KOS Pristina Luzhane/Luzane R ,586 11, ,766 10, ,820 1, KOS Luzhane/Luzane Merdare R7.12 8,376 10, ,316 8, ,060 1, SBR Merdare Kursumlija R ,963 1, , SBR Kursumlija Prokuplje R ,579 2, ,163 2, SBR Prokuplje Doljevac R ,579 5, ,163 5, Annex II: Model results for the road network Do-Nothing Scenario 19

28 Country From To SEETO MKD Podmolje Ohrid R ,000 8, ,281 8, , MKD Ohrid Resen R8.02 4,424 1, ,223 1, MKD Resen Bitola R8.03 4,424 2, ,223 2, CRO Vukovar Vinkovci R ,882 7, ,318 7, CRO Vinkovci Zupanja R ,882 5, ,318 5, CRO Rupa (border) Rupa Vb ,033 6, ,310 6, CRO Rupa Permani Vb ,404 6, ,293 6, , CRO Permani Jurdani Vb ,404 6, ,293 6, , CRO Jurdani Matulji Vb ,404 6, ,293 6, , CRO Matulji Diracje Vb ,394 23, ,471 21, ,923 2, CRO Diracje Skorinje Vb ,394 23, ,471 21, ,923 2, CRO Skorinje Rijeka Vb ,394 23, ,471 21, ,923 2, CRO Rijeka Cavle Vb ,702 8, ,786 7, , CRO Cavle Kikovica Vb ,702 8, ,786 7, , CRO Kikovica Ostrovica Vb ,702 8, ,786 7, , CRO Ostrovica Vrata Vb ,702 11, ,786 10, ,916 1, CRO Vrata Delnice Vb ,702 11, ,786 10, ,916 1, CRO Delnice Ravna Gora Vb ,702 11, ,786 9, ,916 1, CRO Ravna Gora Vrbovsko Vb ,702 11, ,786 10, ,916 1, CRO Vrbovsko Bosiljevo 2 Vb ,702 10, ,786 9, ,916 1, CRO Bosiljevo 2 Bosiljevo 1 Vb ,974 21, ,097 19, ,877 1, CRO Bosiljevo 1 Novi Grad Vb ,974 20, ,097 18, ,877 1, CRO Novi Grad Karlovac Vb.07 31,974 20, ,097 18, ,877 1, CRO Karlovac Jastrebarsko Vb ,999 27, ,076 24, ,923 2, Annex II: Model results for the road network Do-Nothing Scenario 20

29 Country From To SEETO CRO Jastrebarsko Lucko Vb ,369 30, ,446 27, ,923 2, CRO Ivanja Reka Kraljevacki Novaki Vb ,980 35, ,659 31, ,322 4, CRO Kraljevacki Novaki Popovec Vb ,010 28, ,759 25, ,252 3, CRO Popovec Sveta Helena Vb ,432 23, ,699 20, ,734 3, CRO Sveta Helena Komin Vb ,543 8, ,581 7, ,962 1, CRO Komin Breznicki Hum Vb ,543 8, ,581 7, ,962 1, CRO Breznicki Hum Novi Marof Vb ,543 8, ,581 7, ,962 1, CRO Novi Marof Varazdinske Vb ,543 8, ,581 7, ,962 1, Toplice CRO Varazdinske Varazdin Vb ,543 9, ,581 8, ,962 1, Toplice CRO Varazdin Ludbreg Vb ,338 4, ,681 3, CRO Ludbreg Cakovec Vb ,338 3, ,681 3, CRO Cakovec Gorican Vb ,542 2, ,135 1, CRO Gorican Gorican (border) Vb.12 1,542 2, ,135 1, CRO Dubosevica Beli Manastir Vc , , CRO Beli Manastir Karanac Vc ,194 5, ,652 5, CRO Karanac Osijek - North Vc ,194 6, ,652 6, CRO Osijek - North Josipovec Vc ,512 19, ,633 17, ,879 1, CRO Josipovec Cepin Vc ,674 1, ,923 1, CRO Cepin Djakovo Vc ,674 2, ,923 2, CRO Djakovo Sredanci Vc ,674 2, ,923 2, CRO V. Kopanica Slavonski Samac Vc ,486 2, ,782 2, BIH Bosanski Samac Modrica Vc.04 8,016 7, Annex II: Model results for the road network Do-Nothing Scenario 21

30 Country From To SEETO CRO Metkovic HR/BH Opuzen Vc ,536 9, ,781 8, (border) CRO Opuzen Cevljusa Vc ,798 7, ,050 6, , CRO Cevljusa Ploce Vc ,798 5, ,050 5, , BIH Modrica Seslije Vc.05 14,954 13,261 1,692 BIH Seslije Doboj Vc.06 17,254 14,641 2,612 BIH Doboj Karuse Vc.07 17,563 15,226 2,337 BIH Karuse Maglaj Vc.08 12,733 7, ,316 6, ,417 1, BIH Maglaj Zenica Vc.09 12,733 5, ,316 4, ,417 1, BIH Zenica Lasva Vc.10 19,387 11, ,781 9, ,606 1, BIH Lasva Visoko Vc.11 22,544 11, ,624 9, ,920 2, BIH Visoko Josanica Vc.12 22,544 13, ,624 11, ,920 2, BIH Josanica Semizovac Vc.13 26,569 15, ,649 14, ,920 1, BIH Semizovac Sarajevo Vc.14 26,569 23,649 2,920 BIH Sarajevo Blazuj Vc.15 25,159 20,030 5,129 BIH Blazuj Tarcin Vc.16 11,359 7, ,140 6, , BIH Tarcin Konjic Vc.17 11,359 5, ,140 4, , BIH Konjic Jablanica Vc.18 10,529 7, ,310 7, , BIH Jablanica Mostar bypass 1 Vc.19 10,529 6, ,310 5, , BIH Mostar bypass 1 Mostar bypass 2 Vc.20 7,361 6, ,762 5, BIH Mostar bypass 2 Zitomislic Vc.21 7,361 5, ,762 4, BIH Zitomislic Capljina Vc.22 7,361 5, ,762 4, BIH Capljina Doljani Vc.23 7,361 3, ,762 3, ALB Tirana Vore VIII ,939 25, ,148 22, ,790 2, Annex II: Model results for the road network Do-Nothing Scenario 22