Earth s Climate Change: Science and Impacts

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1 НАУКA И УТИЦАЈИ

2 Earth s Climate Change: Science and Impacts Промена климе Земље: наукa и утицаји Serbian Academy of Sciences and Arts, Belgrade, Knez Mihailova 35/II Српска академија наука и уметности, Београд, Кнез Михаилова 35/II October октобар године

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4 International Scientific Committee: co-chairs: André Berger (Université Catholique de Louvain, Belgium) Zoran Knežević (Serbian Academy of Science and Arts, Serbia) Slobodan Marković (Serbian Academy of Science and Arts, Serbia) Fedor Mesinger (Serbian Academy of Science and Arts, Serbia) members: Sin Chan Chou (Center for Weather Forecasting and Climate Studies, National Institute of Space Research, Brazil) Dejan Dimkić (Jaroslav Černi Institute for the Development of Water Resources, Serbia) Milan A. Dimkić (Jaroslav Černi Institute for the Development of Water Resources, Serbia) Silvio Gualdi (Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Italy) Ivan Guettler (Meteorological and Hydrological Service of Croatia, Croatia) James Hansen (Climate Science, Awareness and Solutions, Columbia University Earth Institute, USA) Vladimir Janković (University of Manchester, United Kingdom) Ratko Kadović (University of Belgrade Faculty of Forestry, Serbia) Lazar Lazić (University of Belgrade Faculty of Physics, Serbia) Slobodan Ničković (Republic Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia) Jugoslav Nikolić (Republic Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia) Saša Orlović (University of Novi Sad Institute of Lowland Forestry and Environment, Serbia) Mirjana Ruml (University of Belgrade Faculty of Agriculture, Serbia) Ivana Tošić (University of Belgrade Faculty of Physics, Serbia)

5 Local Organizing Committee: co-chairs: Aleksandra Kržič (Republic Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia) Ana Vuković (University of Belgrade Faculty of Agriculture, Serbia) members: Danijela Božanić (Ministry of Agriculture and Environmental Protection of Republic of Serbia) Ana Đačić (Jaroslav Černi Institute for the Development of Water Resources, Serbia) Slavko Maksimović (Society Milutin Milanković, Serbia) Miodrag Milovanović (Jaroslav Černi Institute for the Development of Water Resources, Serbia) Milica Pecelj (Geographical Institute Jovan Cvijić Serbian Academy of Science and Arts, Serbia) Ana Repac (Ministry of Agriculture and Environmental Protection of Republic of Serbia) Dejan Stojanović (University of Novi Sad Institute of Lowland Forestry and Environment, Serbia) Katarina Veljović (University of Belgrade Faculty of Physics, Serbia) Mirjam Vujadinović Mandić (University of Belgrade Faculty of Agriculture, Serbia)

6 PROGRAM ПРОГРАМ

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8 Wednesday, October 11 Main hall 2 nd floor 09:00 10:00 Registration of participants 10:00 11:15 OPENING ADDRESSES, 11:15 11:45 Coffee break President of the Serbian Academy of Sciences and Arts, Vladimir S. Kostić Co-Chair of the International Organizing Committee, André Berger Co-Chair of the International Organizing Committee, Fedor Mesinger Musical intermezzo 11:45 13:15 OUR WARMING CLIMATE: WHAT IS GOING ON? 11:45 12:25 Lennart Bengtsson, Kevin K. I. Hodges: Can an ensemble climate simulation be used to separate climate change signals from natural variability? 12:25 13:05 Stefan Rahmstorf: Extreme events in a warming climate 13:05 13:15 Discussion 13:15 14:30 Lunch break 14:30 17:30 LEARNING FROM THE PAST: DYNAMICS OF PAST INTERGLACIALS 14:30 14:55 Paul E. Olsen: The Late Triassic and Early Jurassic prelude to the Anthropocene?

9 14:55 15:20 Masayuki Ikeda: Long-period Milankovitch cycles with implications for Solar System chaos and climate change during the greenhouse world 15:20 15:45 Hugues Goosse: Analyzing internal and forced variability over the past millennium using data assimilation 15:45 16:15 Coffee break 16:15 16:40 André Berger, Qiuzhen Yin: Equilibrium and transient simulations of the interglacial climate response to CO2 and astronomical forcing 16:40 17:05 Qingzhen Hao: Extra-long interglacial in Northern Hemisphere during MISs arising from limited extent of Arctic ice sheets in glacial MIS 14 17:05 17:30 Dominique Raynaud, Vladimir Lipenkov: The Mid-Pleistocene transition and the Vostok oldest ice challenge 17:30 17:55 EVIDENCE AND IMPACT ON GEOLOGY, GROUNDWATER, ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION, AIR-SEA INTERACTION: PAST AND FUTURE 17:30 17:55 Frédéric Dias: Predicting the future wave climate of the Northeast Atlantic region: Thursday, October 12 Main hall 2 nd floor 09:00 10:15 LEARNING FROM THE PAST: DYNAMICS OF PAST INTERGLACIALS, continued 09:00 09:25 Dirk Verschuren: Half-precessional insolation forcing of tropical climate: accumulating evidence 09:25 09:50 Julie Brigham-Grette: Too warm, two poles: Super interglacial teleconnections and possible dual pole ice sheet stability

10 09:50 10:15 Léa Gest,, Dominique Raynaud, : Leads and lags between Antarctic temperature and carbon dioxide at the onset and during the last deglaciation 10:15 13:15 EVIDENCE AND IMPACT ON GEOLOGY, GROUNDWATER, ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION, AIR-SEA INTERACTION: PAST AND FUTURE, continued 10:15 10:40 Emmanuele Russo, Ulrich Cubasch: Millennial-scale climatic changes over Europe during the Mid-to-late Holocene: Proxy-records vs. climate models 10:40 11:10 Coffee break 11:10 11:35 Milan Dimkić: Several aspects of the influence of ice ages in Serbia on the formation of the Sava alluvion and water source processes 11:35 12:00 Slobodan Marković: The role of polar front dynamics in formation of the Serbian Loess 12:00 12:25 Aleksandar Jakovljević, Frédéric Dias: The numerical modelling of air-sea fluxes in a fully Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport modeling system (COAWST) 12:25 12:50 Jelena Janjić: The impact of teleconnections on the wave climate of the Northeast Atlantic 12:50 13:15 Ivana Tošić: The influence of large-scale circulation patterns on temperature in South-eastern Europe 13:15 14:30 Lunch break 14:30 14:55 EVIDENCE AND IMPACT ON GEOLOGY, GROUNDWATER, ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION, AIR-SEA INTERACTION: PAST AND FUTURE, continued 14:30 14:55 Enrico Scoccimarro: Extreme events of perceived temperature over Europe in the future: the humidity role

11 14:55 17:05 REGIONAL CLIMATE MODELING: TOOLS AND RESULTS 14:55 15:20 Fedor Mesinger, Katarina Veljovic: Requirements RCMs need to fulfill if they are to improve on large scales of their driver model. Example: Eta driven by ECMWF 32-day ensemble 15:20 15:45 Sin-Chan Chou: Long-term simulations of the Eta Regional Climate Model over South America 15:45 16:15 Coffee break 16:15 16:40 Bojan Cvetkovic: Numerical modeling of atmospheric aerosol transport and interaction with climate system 16:40 17:05 Luka Ilić: Assessment of health effects of exposure to atmospheric mineral dust using the NMME-DREAM model Friday, October 13 Main hall 2 nd floor 09:15 09:55 REGIONAL CLIMATE MODELING: TOOLS AND RE- SULTS, continued 09:15 09:55 Tomas Halenka: CORDEX and EURO-CORDEX: New activities and their implications high resolution RCM and urban effects 09:55 12:55 CLIMATE CHANGE MONITORING AND IMPACTS ON ECONOMY AND ENVIRONMENT 09:55 10:20 Krešo Pandžić: A comparison of the drought indices for the Zagreb-Grič observatory with an overview of agriculture drought damages in Croatia 10:20 10:45 Mirjana Ruml: Growing season temperature changes in Serbia from 1961 to 2010

12 10:45 11:15 Coffee break 11:15 11:40 Dejan Dimkić: Reliability question in forecasting future mean runoff 11:40 12:05 Jelena Lukovic, John C. H. Chiang: Seasonal shifts in the Western US hydroclimate 12:05 12:30 Ana Vukovic: Implications of climate change in human livelihood within Serbia 12:30 12:55 Stevan Jokić: Sustainable development and science education 13:00 14:30 Lunch break 14:30 16:35 CLIMATE CHANGE MONITORING AND IMPACTS ON ECONOMY AND ENVIRONMENT, continued 14:30 14:55 Goran Pejanovic: Operational and research activities of the South East European Virtual Climate Change Center (SEEVCCC) 14:55 15:20 Dragan Mihić: Gridded climatology of the Danube Region 15:20 15:45 Maria Wind: CLIMA PROOF - Enhancing environmental performance and climate proofing of infrastructure investments in the Western Balkan Region from an EU integration perspective 15:45 16:05 Natalie Garrett: Introducing Climateurope: Europe s network for climate services 16:05 16:30 Coffee break 16:30 17:00 CONCLUDING DISCUSSION Saturday, October 14: Excursion to Cultural and Science Center Milutin Milanković, in Dalj, Croatia, for interested participants, with an appropriate science program.

13 Републички хидрометеоролошки завод Србије Институт за водопривреду Јарослав Черни

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