Programme. February 19 th -20 th Jahorina, Bosnia-Herzegovina. Thursday, 19 February 2009

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1 Programme EU-WFD and Economics in the Neretva River Basin Event in the context of the WWF - Living Neretva project: Training on how to develop a full WFD-Baseline Scenario for the Neretva and Trebisnjica Basin February 19 th -20 th 2009 Jahorina, Bosnia-Herzegovina 12:15 Registration 12:30 Lunch Thursday, 19 February 2009 SESSION I Introduction to the Neretva project and WFD-Economics: what is the role of the BLS? 13:40 Welcome by the WWF (Branko Vucijak - WWF MedPO) Welcome by a representative of the BiH administration 13:50 Aims of the workshop (Eduard Interwies - InterSus) Introduction to the WWF-Living Neretva project: overall aims, work regarding WFDeconomics overall and esp. in the current phase of the project (Branko Vucijak - WWF MedPO) Tour-de-table; what are your expectations of this workshop? Introduction: EU WFD & Economics Requirements and Objectives towards the River Basin Management Plans and Programmes of Measures (Eduard Interwies InterSus) The role of the economic analysis: setting the scene for later work on the implementation of the WFD (Eduard Interwies InterSus) Discussion: where do we stand regarding WFD-economics implementation in BiH/the Neretva? Coffee

2 SESSION II Methodology to carry out a Baseline Scenario according to the WFD The Baseline Scenario approach as developed by the WATECO-group: the overall approach (Eduard Interwies InterSus) Discussion / clarifications A methodology for developing the Baseline Scenario (based on CIS-group Eco 1) (Eduard Interwies InterSus) Discussion / clarifications 17:30 End of day 1 Friday, 20 February 2009 SESSION III Carrying out a Baseline Scenario according to the WFD in the Neretva and Trebisnjica basin 9.00 Overall issues for the development of a full BLS at the Neretva elements of a work plan (see chapter 7 of the guidebook) (Eduard Interwies InterSus) Discussion & the way ahead 9.20 The economic analysis report as developed by the last project phase: overall approach & the template regarding BLS (Eduard Interwies InterSus) 9.30 Results for the economic analysis project on BLS: Issues related to agriculture (WG member) Discussion & the way ahead Results from the Neretva economic analysis project: Issues related to hydropower (WG member) Discussion & the way ahead Coffee Results from the Neretva economic analysis project: Issues related to tourism (WG member) Discussion & the way ahead Results from the Neretva economic analysis project: Issues related to other potential drivers / trend variables beyond the three topics discussed so far (e.g. exogenous drivers; water policies and investments; macroeconomic policies; global polices) (WG member) Discussion & the way ahead Overall discussion on the next steps towards a full baseline scenario at the Neretva, summary of workshop results (Eduard Interwies InterSus) Lunch - End of workshop

3 Aims of the workshop Eduard Interwies InterSus Sustainability Services WWF-Living Neretva Project WFD-BLS workshop February 2009 Jahorina, BiH

4 Overall aim & structure of the workshop Support the implementation of the WFD in the Neretva RB and esp. the set-up of the Baseline Scenario integrate projections into river basin management planning Main tool: the handbook on BLS-development To reach that aim: 3 Sessions 1. Introductory session: Reminder on the importance of economics in WFD-implementation; the economic analysis; and esp. of the BLS-development: why do we do all this?

5 Overall aim & structure of the workshop 2. Methodology to develop the BLS: What support has been provided at the EUlevel? 3. Adjusting to the Neretva situation developing the way ahead: The economic analysis report of the last project phase as starting point where are we; What do we/can we do in order to close main gaps for the BLS-development?

6 In order to be successful: We look forward to your feedback on the (draft) handbook Working language: English, but give a sign & we will translate; questions in local language ok Please ask any questions as they arise, please discuss openly (no official opinions stated here working meeting) Let s be ambitious but realistic on what can be achieved Let s enjoy the beautiful environment!

7 Thank you for listening! Eduard Interwies

8 WWF For an introduction Jahorina

9 What WWF is World Wide Fund for Nature (formerly World Wildlife Fund) In the US still World Wildlife Fund The World s leading independent conservation organisation Working for People and Nature

10 A bit of history In 1960, Sir Huxley went to East Africa to advise UNESCO on wildlife conservation in the area. He was appalled at what he saw. On his return to London, he wrote three articles for The Observer newspaper in which he warned the British public that habitat was being destroyed and animals hunted at such a rate that much of the region's wildlife could disappear within the next 20 years.

11 A bit of history 1961, a crucial year Preparatory Group, to "establish plans for a world fundraising organization to work in collaboration with existing bodies to bring massive financial support to the conservation movement on an international scale" Name World Wildlife Fund chosen Panda design created by Peter Scott The Prince of the Netherlands first patron, then President of WWF 11 September 1961 : WORLD WILDLIFE FUND registered as a Foundation in Zürich (Switzerland)

12 A bit of history The initial purpose: for the conservation of world fauna, flora, forests, landscape, water, soils and other natural resources

13 WWF today In less then 5 decades, WWF has become the world's largest and most respected independent conservation organizations

14 WWF today WWF today

15 WWF Mission TO STOP THE DEGRADATION OF THE PLANET'S NATURAL ENVIRONMENT AND TO BUILD A FUTURE IN WHICH HUMANS LIVE IN HARMONY WITH NATURE, BY: Conserving the world's biological diversity Ensuring that the use of renewable natural resources is sustainable Promoting the reduction of pollution and wasteful consumption

16 Conservation priorities WHAT? WHERE? FORESTS SPECIES FRESHWATER TOXICS OCEANS & COASTS CLIMATE CHANGE GLOBAL 200 ECOREGIONS WHAT + WHERE = WWF'S GLOBAL CONSERVATION PRIORITIES

17 Guiding principles be global, independent, multi-cultural and non-party political use the best available scientific information to address issues and critically evaluate all its endeavours seek dialogue and avoid unnecessary confrontation build concrete conservation solutions through a combination of field-based projects, policy, capacity building and education

18 Guiding principles involve local communities and indigenous peoples in the planning and execution of its field programmes, respecting their cultural as well as economic needs strive to build partnerships with other organizations, governments, business and local communities to enhance its effectiveness run its operations in a cost-effective manner and apply donors funds according to the highest standards of accountability

19 to conserve the natural wealth of the Mediterranean and to promote the sustainable use of resources for the benefit ( of all

20 LIVING NERETVA - ŽIVJETI NERETVU

21 14 CILJ PROJEKTA Opći cilj (vizija) projekta je osiguranje zaštite prirode i održivog razvoja u području sliva rijeke Neretve, kao osnove za dugoročni napredak u regiji Direktni cilj projekta je doprinijeti razvoju integralnog upravljanja slivom Neretve, u oblasti povezivanja upravljanja vodama i zaštite bioraznolikosti Upravljati prirodnim resursima sliva Neretve sukladno principima i kriterijima Okvirne direktive o vodama (WFD) i Direktive o staništima (HD)

22 AKTIVNOSTI PROJEKTA Formiranje radnih grupa (WG): HD sa ciljem utvrđivanja najbolje metodologije i akcionog plana za identificiranje vrijednosti bioraznolikosti i hotspots u slivu Neretve, sukladno standardima HD (kasnije LH projekt) WFD EF sa ciljem utvrđivanja najbolje metodologije i akcionog plana za identificiranje ekološkog protoka (i odnosnog upravljanja vodama) koji će očuvati prirodne karakteristike rijeke WFD EE sa ciljem utvrđivanja najbolje metodologije i akcionog plana za identificiranje ekonomske /gospodarstvene vrijednosti različitih mogućnosti upravljanja vodama i okolišnih potencijala Neretve

23 Cilj radionice Predstaviti ukratko tekuću fazu WWF- Living Neretva - projekta GLAVNI CILJ: Predstaviti pristup izradi nacrta priručnika za metodologiju izrade osnovnog scenarija prema ODV/WFD ekonomska analiza; Identificirati mogućnosti i dobiti smjernice za poboljšanje priručnika; Najaviti naredne zadatke EE radne grupe (do kraja juna/lipnja 2009)

24 EU WFD & Economics Requirements and Objectives towards the River Basin Management Plans and Programmes of Measures Eduard Interwies InterSus Sustainability Services WWF-Living Neretva Project WFD-BLS workshop February 2009 Jahorina, BiH

25 Content The WFD & Economics Economic elements of the WFD towards 2009 RBMP: Objectives, Requirements regarding: Prospective approach: Baseline scenario Selection of measures considering cost-effectiveness analysis (Art. 11) Cost recovery/incentive pricing (Art. 9) Exemptions Art. 4: disproportionality/cost-benefit analysis

26 Overview: role of Economics in the overall WFD process 1. Baseline scenario: considering changes of significance for WFD-measures selection/rbmp up to Selecting the most cost-effective set of measures to reach the environmental aims 3a. Cost recovery (including internalization of environmental & resource costs of water services) 3b. Economic incentives for rational water use 4. Assessing different exemptions under Article 4 ( disproportionate costs etc.); including HMWB, new modifications

27 Defining penalties Implementing programme of measures Evaluating impacts of programme Analysing water uses, pressures, impacts Economic importance of water uses Cost recovery Assessment Supply& demand trends/baseline Scenario Environmental objectives Costs & benefits of measures Defining less stringent objectives, time exemptions, HMWB, new modifications Justification of cost-recovery levels Justifying potential exemptions Identifying potential measures Identifying programme of Identification of a costeffective programme of measures measures Assessing the role of pricing as measure (incentive) WWF-Living Neretva Measures Project: WFD-BLS to improve workshop cost February recovery2009, Jahorina, BiH

28 1. Baseline Scenario Starting point: Annex III: The economic analysis shall contain enough information in sufficient detail ( ) to: (a) make the relevant calculations necessary for taking into account ( ) the principle of the cost recovery of water services, taking account of long term forecasts of supply and demand for water in the RBD and, where necessary: - estimates of the volume, prices and costs associated with water services; - estimates of relevant investment including forecasts of such investments. Has been specified by WATECO/W. Directors see later ppt for details

29 2. Selection of measures (Art. 11) [...] (b) make judgments about the most cost effective combination of measures in respect of water uses to be included in the programme of measures under Art. 11 based on estimates of the potential costs of such measures (Annex III). Regarding timing in BiH: draft (?) RBMP including programs of measures due 2012, final by 2015?

30 3a. Cost recovery (Art. 9) Member States shall take account of the principle of recovery of the costs of water services, including environmental and resource costs [...] and in accordance in particular with the polluter pays principle. Member States shall ensure by 2010: an adequate contribution of the different water uses, disaggregated into a least industry, households and agriculture, to the recovery of the costs of water services (Art. 9 (1)).

31 3a. Social and reasonable Cost Recovery (Art. 9) Member States may in so doing have regard to the social, environmental and economic effects of the recovery as well as the geographic and climatic conditions of the region or regions affected (Art. 9 (1)). important, realistic restriction of the cost recovery principle: room for interpretation; political consensus through transparency; cost recovery levels reached & contribution by water uses to these costs need to be justified!

32 3b. Incentive pricing (Art. 9) Member States shall ensure by 2010: that water pricing policies provide adequate incentives for users to use water resources efficiently, and thereby contribute to the environmental objectives of this Directive (Art. 9 (1)). Setting of incentives (e.g. through pricing) can be a costeffective measure for reaching the WFD-objectives

33 4. Justifying potential exemptions (Art. 4) Possible to lower environmental objectives, apply for time exemptions, designate HMWBs; Number of conditions to be met, of relevance for all: disproportionality of costs! Use of cost-benefit analysis Of importance also for new modifications! (Art. 4.7: The beneficial objectives served by those modifications or alterations of the water body cannot for reasons of technical feasibility or disproportionate cost be achieved by other means, which are a significantly better environmental option. )

34 Requirements of the WFD for 2004 Starting point for this integration of economics in WFD implementation: For each river basin: 1. analysis of characteristics 2. review of the impact of human activities on water bodies 3. economic analysis of water uses (according to Article 5, Annex II, III and V) This economic analysis was the main focus of the last Living Neretva project work on economics we now will go a step further aiming at closing gaps regarding the BLS

35 Thank you for listening! Eduard Interwies

36 The role of the economic analysis: setting the scene for later work on the implementation of the WFD Eduard Interwies InterSus Sustainability Services WWF-Living Neretva Project WFD-BLS workshop February 2009 Jahorina, BiH WWF-Living Neretva Project - WFD & Economics workshop 3-4 April 2008, Sarajevo, BiH

37 Content [Economic elements of the WFD towards 2009 RBMP: see last presentation] What does the economic analysis need to contain as a preparatory step? Specification of content based on the WATECO-document Some words on the current implementation status across Europe WWF-Living Neretva Project - WFD & Economics workshop 3-4 April 2008, Sarajevo, BiH

38 Defining penalties Implementing programme of measures Evaluating impacts of programme Analysing water uses, pressures, impacts Economic importance of water uses Cost recovery Assessment Supply& demand trends/baseline Scenario Environmental objectives Costs & benefits of measures Defining less stringent objectives, time exemptions, HMWB, new modifications Justification of cost-recovery levels Justifying potential exemptions Identifying potential measures Identifying programme of Identification of a costeffective programme of measures measures Assessing the role of pricing as measure (incentive) WWF-Living Neretva Project - WFD Measures & Economics to improve workshop cost recovery 3-4 April 2008, Sarajevo, BiH

39 Requirements of the WFD for 2004 (economic analysis) Starting point: For each river basin: 1. analysis of characteristics 2. review of the impact of human activities on water bodies 3. economic analysis of water uses (according to Article 5, Annex II, III and V) In BiH: deadline for econ analysis is 2010 (?): path finding work on the example of the Neretva done in last project phase. Now: how to close gaps? Focus on BLS and ecosystem services/env & Res. Costs (see May workshop) WWF-Living Neretva Project - WFD & Economics workshop 3-4 April 2008, Sarajevo, BiH

40 Practical implementation In order to clarify main issues & provide support for the implementation: Various working groups within the CIS-process (Common Implementation Strategy) producing Information Sheets on economics etc.; therein, Main Guidance document on economic aspects of the WFD prepared by the WATer ECOnomics working group (WATECO) in 2003 (can be found at WWF-Living Neretva Project - WFD & Economics workshop 3-4 April 2008, Sarajevo, BiH

41 Economic importance of water uses Link to the pressures and impacts analysis in order to identify the main water uses of importance; WATECO-document presents the kind of information to be collected for the different water uses (see template); Only the significant water uses need to be worked upon! For Neretva/our project: the P & I analysis will take place in the next phase(s), so identification of significant water uses done based on expert judgements! (to be possibly revised later when we have the results of the P & I analysis) WWF-Living Neretva Project - WFD & Economics workshop 3-4 April 2008, Sarajevo, BiH

42 Baseline scenario Important specification of the WFD-spirit based on the requirements of Annex III of long term forecasts of supply and demand for water & forecasts water service investments Understanding that prospective thinking is necessary! (WATECO, Water Directors) 3-Step approach developed, see next presentations WWF-Living Neretva Project - WFD & Economics workshop 3-4 April 2008, Sarajevo, BiH

43 WATECO Guidance & Cost Recovery Adequate contribution to the recovery of the costs of water services Financial costs WATER SERVICES Environmental costs Resource costs WATER USES Industry Households Agriculture WWF-Living Neretva Project - WFD & Economics workshop 3-4 April 2008, Sarajevo, BiH

44 What costs? Costs Definition Example Financial cost Environmental cost Resource cost Capital costs Operating costs Costs of the damages to the environment caused by a given activity Value of the alternative foregone by choosing a particular activity (= opportunity costs) Principal and interest, depreciation Wages, electricity, maintenance of equipment, analyses of the quality of water Contamination of an aquifer, destruction of wetlands Cost of electricity that could have been produced if water would be available instead of being pumped for irrigation WWF-Living Neretva Project - WFD & Economics workshop 3-4 April 2008, Sarajevo, BiH

45 Preparing the selection of measures According to WATECO, it is not required for the first economic analysis to have developed the full methodology/provide all necessary information for the later selection of measures; At the same time, preparations have to take place, e.g.: collecting available information on costs of measures, possible methodological approaches developed/under development, measures under consideration that would affect the environmental status and their related information, e.g. aims, costs etc. (of special importance for the Neretva: possible new dams?) WWF-Living Neretva Project - WFD & Economics workshop 3-4 April 2008, Sarajevo, BiH

46 Current implementation status in the EU Characterization reports economic analysis prepared (almost all ) in 2004/05; evaluation of EU-COM showed room for improvement up to 2009; Intense work currently across Europe on the next steps: - preparing the selection of measures (focus!); - preparing methodologies for assessing potential exemptions; - revising water pricing structures; - international coordination of River Basin Management Plans; - etc. Draft River Basin Management Plans now available (most ) for consultation final in March 2010 WWF-Living Neretva Project - WFD & Economics workshop 3-4 April 2008, Sarajevo, BiH

47 Current implementation status Main challenges/issues right now in the EU: - definition of w. uses & w. services; - linking WFD implementation to climate change (& scarcity) (BLS!); - assessing Environmental & Resource costs - assessing disproportional costs for exemptions: which role for affordability? WWF-Living Neretva Project - WFD & Economics workshop 3-4 April 2008, Sarajevo, BiH

48 Concluding remarks The WFD implementation process so far showed the advantages of the systematic integration of economics into water management: transparency & lively discussions ; Still, the challenges are considerable, but progress is made! Public participation is key, both for better knowledge basis as well as acceptance of results For BiH/Neretva: some time for conducting the overall economic analysis according to the water law (2010++?) but due to the specific difficulties work at national/regional level has to start early! So: initial economic analysis on the Neretva done; important to clarify future work for closing gaps! WWF-Living Neretva Project - WFD & Economics workshop 3-4 April 2008, Sarajevo, BiH

49 Thank you for listening! Eduard Interwies

50 The Baseline Scenario approach as developed by the WATECO-group: the overall approach Eduard Interwies InterSus Sustainability Services WWF-Living Neretva Project WFD-BLS workshop February 2009 Jahorina, BiH

51 Baseline scenario Important specification of the WFD-spirit based on the requirements of Annex III of long term forecasts of supply and demand for water & forecasts water service investments Understanding that prospective thinking is necessary! (WATECO, Water Directors) 3-Step approach developed

52 Main aims of BLS Investigate dynamics in river basin development: forward looking water management Complement the characterization of RB today by an assessment of its future likely trends. This assessment: basis for analyzing the gap between likely water status & good water status (risk of non-compliance); This gap analysis: variety of experts involved, but economic analysis a first step: assessment of forecasts in key drivers likely to influence pressures and thus water status

53 Baseline scenario (04-05) Description of the initial situation Baseline scenario: projection for 2015 Focus on economic aspects, e.g.: estimate the economic "weight" of water uses Baseline and scenario: services appraisal of evolutions of uses, pressures... identification of potential gaps in water status with GES

54 Examples of trends to be investigated: General socio-economic indicators & variables (e.g. population growth); Key sector policies influencing significant water uses identified in the river basin investigated (e.g. agricultural policy); Production or turnover of main economic sectors/significant water uses; Land planning and its effects on the spatial allocation of pressures & economic sectors; Implementation of existing water sector regulation / directives or of environmental policies likely to affect water (e.g. NATURA 2000)

55 BASELINE SCENARIO UP TO 2015 Continuation of past trends Trends - demography - changes in land planning Impact Present 2015 Impact of water policies Critical uncertainties - im plem entation of water directives - planned investments in the water sector - new technologies - new CAP - clim ate change Conformity Non conformity + improvement Source of original map: Agence de l'eau Seine-Normandie

56 but it s not only socioeconomics: To be complemented by analysis of changes in the hydrological cycle, e.g. for accounting for climate change! Feed into an overall assessment of changes in key pressures, including water demand, and resulting impact on water status. It is important to stress that some analyses can be organised at the national (or European) scale as all river basins of a given country (or of Europe) will face similar changes To be discussed later: Neretva & BiH?

57 WATECO Guidance 3-step-approach: Step 1 ( ): complement the characterization of the river basin today by an assessment of its future likely trends using projections for 2015 (baseline scenario); Step 2 (2007): Assessment of risk to fail environmental objectives ( Gap analysis -Risk of non-compliance); Step 3 (2009): Choosing cost-effective measures, assessing exemptions, approaching cost recovery. Specific role of economics: project significant trends in key indicators & (policy and economic) drivers up to 2015, contribute to a Business As Usual Scenario for pressures: what would happen without the WFD, including completion of other EU-Directives

58 Key issues when developing the BLS Forecast not only investments but other key parameters & drivers influencing water supply & demand (or more generally all significant pressures); Do not rely too much on projection of past trends; possibly misleading results! Integrate predictable changes in past trends based on a series of assumptions; Identify (and distinguish) variables with high degree of confidence & those that are uncertain; both for physical parameters & for economic / policy-based drivers; and Build a series of alternative scenarios using alternative assumptions, particularly with respect to policy options

59 Types of variables to be forcasted 1. Trend variables: underlying (exogenous) trends, on which water policy has no direct influence (e.g. changes in demographic factors; economic growth and changes in economic activity composition); 2. Critical uncertainties: difficult to predict variables, might have significant impact on final result (e.g. changes in social values & policy drivers (e.g. globalisation / regionalisation); changes in natural conditions, e.g. climate change; changes in non-water sector policies, e.g. changes in agricultural policy or industrial policy etc.);

60 Types of variables to be forcasted 3. Water policy variables: variables linked to water policies, independently from WFD implementation (e.g. planned investments in the water sector, e.g. for developing water services or for restoring the natural environment; development of new technologies likely to impact on water use for industrial production and related pressures etc.).

61 How to work on step 1 (the BLS)? ( Assessment of the River Basin s future likely trends using projections ): Task 1 - Assess current trends in trend variables (including physical parameters and socio-economic drivers) Task 2 Project certain changes in water policy variables and derive longer-term projections Task 3 - Integrate Changes in Uncertain Parameters (integration of critical uncertainties)

62 FLOW CHART OF THE PROCEDURE FOR CONSTRUCTING BASELINE SCENARIO Characterisation - Description of the district - Economic analysis of water uses / services - Recovery of costs - Baseline scenario - Identification of potential gaps Monitoring programme Management plan Good Ecological Status Assess current trends in trend variables Project certain changes in water policy variables Main steps WFD procedure Goal Derive one/several realistic business as usual scenarios Integrate changes in critical WWF-Living Neretva uncertainties Project: WFD-BLS (optional) workshop

63 Hints for BLS-work: First BLS will build on existing knowledge of trends in key variables, lack robustness, incorporate many uncertainties. So, to enable revisions, keep a log of: - Calculations made with respect to key variables, physical parameters & formulas; - Overall reasoning process: assumptions, choices of variables, range of variation, priorities in analysis; - Databases used for calculations; and - Perceived limitations in the analysis & suggested future work

64 Possible roles of public participation in BLS-work - Participation by collective building of scenarios: involve stakeholders/public in the choice of assumptions & their values; - Participation by checking coherence of the proposed scenarios: check consistency of assumptions & of scenarios; - Participation by asking the public to question the main statements in water policy: scenarios illustrate and somehow caricaturise policy statements, helping the public to input into decision-making and fostering transparency in the process.

65 Public participation & scenario building - Participation by collective building of scenarios: involve stakeholders/public in the choice of assumptions & their values; - Participation by checking coherence of the proposed scenarios: check consistency of assumptions & of scenarios; - Participation by asking the public to question the main statements in water policy: scenarios illustrate and somehow caricaturise policy statements, helping the public to input into decision-making and fostering transparency in the process.

66 Thank you for listening! Eduard Interwies

67 A methodology for developing the Baseline Scenario (based on CIS-group Eco 1) Eduard Interwies InterSus Sustainability Services WWF-Living Neretva Project WFD-BLS workshop February 2009 Jahorina, BiH

68 ECO1-methodology Further specification of the WATECO-BLSapproach by the Working Group 2B: Drafting Group ECO1 of the EU Common Implementation Strategy It aimed at (a) providing suggestions on the possible organization of work for the implementation of the Baseline scenario (BLS) & at (b) identifying the type of methodologies available

69 and again: what is a BLS? BLS : is to be taken as a projection of business-as-usual policies and trends. is not necessarily a prediction of a likely 2015 situation: things can change, and should change, after decisionmaking and implementation. is not a definition of the aims & objectives of the district: on the contrary it involves stressing unwanted or insufficient evolutions in order to highlight need for action. is not an exploration of various possible futures that would result from sudden changes in business or environmental conditions. Such elaboration should come after BLS, and be based on its results, with possible use of prospective/foresight methodologies

70 Characterisation ofr basin: present significant activities and pressures; present risk of failing to meet objectives INPUT Forecasts on evolution of activities that generate significant pressures on water quantity and/or quality (DRIVERS SCENARIO) e.g. population, agriculture) Main steps for deriving a BLS Links betw. activities and pressures (by models or more general estimates) EVOLUTION OF NET PRESSURES Assessment of evolution of pressures on water bodies Simulated pressure ( GROSS PRESSURES SCENARIO) e.g. increase of population in WB ->increase in urban waste water discharge& water demand; increase of urbanisation in wetlands Anticipation of forthcoming investments out of current policies ( BAU EQUIPMENT SCENARIO ) e.g. Planned Treatment plant in 2005;water saving plan planned for ; forthcoming law on urbandevelopment Prevision of evolution ofnet pressures: simulated pressure (after completion of current programmes) ( NET PRESSURES EVOLUTION SCENARIO ) e.g. increase of waste water production minus increase of treatment capacity; results of water saving rates on new population; possible results of new urban regulation on wetlandsurbanisation Linking pressures and impact on water quality and Quantity (model-based or other means) - Significant issues to be addressed by future program of measures : main polluters, geographical priorities - probability of reaching good status on water bodies - investments needed - time range left between completion of current work and 2015 OUTPUT Assessment of Impact results: changes inquality and quantity after current programme (e.g. water quality changes and likelihood of reaching national good quality level on water body; net forecasted volume of water demand; forecasted wetland status(% of newartificialisation) Characterisation ofrbasin:forthcoming significant activities and pressures Possible change in the present risk to fail reaching good status

71 Four steps in the derivation of the BLS: 1. Assessing and defining the significant activities and pressures 2. Evolution of activities generating significant pressures on water bodies 3. Evaluation of net pressures 4. Possible outputs of the baseline scenario (PS: all of these steps are for development of the BLS so only step 1 of the WATECO-approach!)

72 Step 1: Assessing & defining significant activities pressures select most relevant subjects to focus on for data collection, improvement and for calculation; though avoiding insufficient notice of significant emergent issues. By: Starting with initial screening of the present main water management issues for the basin. Then pay attention to possible emergent issues out of trends analysis, by putting those first findings into an initial expert desk-based review. Handy hint: propose first a general statement based on current data and knowledge, on which various experts are invited to & provide reactions in order to create a better (shared) understanding of ongoing & future issues

73 Step 2: Evolution of activities generating significant pressures AIM: make a BLS for the development of activities (industrial production, agriculture, population growth & consumption ) as a basis for assessing likely evolution of pressures & for assessing the activity sectors that will be responsible for remaining pressures then should be targeted in the RB management plan). In some cases: when evolution of pressures is apparently well known & when the link between activities & pressures is considered to be certain & stable by both policy-makers and stakeholders, it may not be necessary to undertake a detailed scenario for the evolution of activities. Probably be rare & most often proposing a pressures evolution scenario will have to be based on scenario for the evolution of the drivers.

74 Step 2: Evolution of activities generating significant pressures 2 approaches: [Bottom-up: build up a local forecast for each important driver in the basin &check afterwards its coherence with global forecasts] Top-down: start with general forecasting of population & urban development, social structure, economy and apply it to the River basin by interpolation of trends to its local drivers; Top-down option: most often less data demanding & timeconsuming

75 Step 2: Evolution of activities generating significant pressures Designing a top-down drivers scenario: scenario may use information from: Growth assumptions for each major activity from now to 2015 (or even further 2021 & 2027 ) Evolution of land use (e.g. surface & farming practices) Evolution of industrial sectors. This task may prove the most difficult, because each sector is rather specific in terms of development and economic drivers: one activity can disappear while another benefits from a boom. Evolution of agriculture & CAP: the least easy to assess in terms of business-as-usual : likely to incur heavy changes in near future

76 Step 2: Evolution of activities generating significant pressures Some hints: Check consistency between drivers projections by spelling out the general economic forecasts that underpin the projections (e.g. general growth, world markets, national demography, national and local policy development priorities ); To avoid inefficient work for industrial scenario: derive general forecasts on industrial discharge volume from past data on industrial effluent trends - consider pollution abatement rates of industrial sectors & past trends; Examine past trends: check if factors included in forecasts are a good explanation of past evolution. Factors that don t explain past trends well, might not properly explain future forecasts either.

77 Step 2: Evolution of activities generating significant pressures Consistency between forecasts used by river basins: General prospective documentation on economic & social forecasts: growth, agricultural policy, land planning and housing, consumption habits, industrial sectors forecasts, etc. For such overall forecasts: share common prospective between RB (European level, but esp. national, e.g. BiH and Neretva/Danube RB to be discussed tomorrow)

78 Step 2: Evolution of activities generating significant pressures Treatment of uncertainties: All projections subject to several possibilities of change and variation in its basic assumptions: it is often said that long-term forecasts are always false. But: forecast is inevitable; is either explicit or implicit. Making no forecast implicitly defines the future as the same as today. So, explicit forecasts are only less false than no anticipation. Useful to: Separate & assess in turn the different kinds of variations in assumptions Bear in mind the necessity of a sensitivity analysis of the BLS results Manage the need for continuous updating of the BLS

79 Step 2: Evolution of activities generating significant pressures Examine 3 kinds of variations in the assumptions/ uncertainties that will form the basis of BLS: A. Treating undetermination by BLS versions : Unavoidable undetermination of certain variables (e.g. even if demographic evolution forecasted, not possible to forecast with confidence the evolution of an industrial sector, of long term regional economic growth ) So: define two or more versions of a BLS; coherent combination of various assumptions on the most relevant & undetermined drivers. Versions are still baseline : still business as usual, but take in consideration the variation of important drivers. Choosing a most probable version then through discussion (esp. if results provide different assessments) Choice to be discussed in decision-making arenas & be kept transparent; the sensitivity of the probability assessment to that choice should be assessed.

80 Step 2: Evolution of activities generating significant pressures B. Treating lack of data: sensitivity analysis & data improvement programme Possible errors & variations will come from the lack in knowledge for some variables. Method: evaluate the sensitivity of the main BLS results to the less known variables: If the analysis shows important sensitivity : evaluate the range of error. If sensitivity is moderate or low: probability assessment of the variable should be defined & working assumptions established; For all non-negligible variables: design & implement a data improvement programme, focusing on the most sensitive & less known variables

81 Step 2: Evolution of activities generating significant pressures C. Treating uncertainties: what if scenarios & other futures thinking methodologies Some possible errors and variations will come from the evolution of some variables that are naturally subject to large-scale or unpredictable changes (e.g. a series of extreme meteorological events after climate change, significant social or political changes ) Such variations poorly suited to probability assessment; coherence between such assessment is often very difficult. Treatment may be undertaken through the various futures thinking methodologies: foresight, prospective, what-if scenarios

82 Step 2: Evolution of activities generating significant pressures Outcomes: Definition of a Business-as-usual relevant drivers scenario Possible definition of several versions of BLS with respect to undetermination of some major drivers Sensitivity analysis & data improvement programme

83 Step 3: Evaluation of net pressures Handling issues without quantitative localised data: How to derive business-as-usual forecasts on pressures without relying on quantitative data How to organise work in order to produce results in reasonable time (and/or budget)? How to make use of partial data on environmental previsions (data about evolution of one only parameter, or limited to specific region, or incomplete series )? Solution from a qualitative approach! Efficient methodologies (time & budget constraints) based on expert groups.

84 Step 3: Evaluation of net pressures Expert groups: aimed at using partial knowledge to build a judgment on evolution, based on partial data plus deliberation. Various expert judgment methodologies can be used, such as scientific forums, panels and conferences, statistical inquiries, Delphi method (interrogation of experts, statistical measurement of average estimates, and re-evaluation by expert of their initial judgment) Some hints: Clear definition & selection of themes is needed: concentrate on the significant ones for water quality Pay attention to constitution of drafting group: appraisal only partially based on scientific evidence; separate judgement from scientific knowledge.

85 Step 3: Evaluation of net pressures Handling issues with quantitative localised data: Not of interest here [Building a quantitative database linking drivers with pressures: too data & resource intensive]

86 Step 4: Possible outputs of the BLS 1. Outputs to the economic analysis: BLS provides a way of describing the dynamics of current water use and pollution. By evaluating the likely improvements awaited from a business-as-usual policy (i.e. decrease in some pollution kinds / improvement in some sectors / decrease of unitary water consumption ), as well as the likely degradations (i.e. increase or progressive unveiling of pollution previously hidden / increase of demand), it points out what will be important in the future & what is progressively becoming less problematic.

87 Step 4: Possible outputs of the BLS 2. Outputs to international rivers management plan In international districts: national baseline provisions not sufficient for obtaining a picture of the foreseen evolution of pressures. Each downstream basin has to take into consideration the influence of actions undertaken in upstream basins. 3. Outputs to the general WFD process BLS is intended to provide a convenient way of integrating the various approaches needed for implementing the WFD. Its realisation itself needs skills and approaches to be brought together in a balanced way, helping each approach to focus and to simplify.

88 Step 4: Possible outputs of the BLS 3. Outputs to the general WFD process Intended to provide an assessment of progress & regression towards good status due to existing directives and other current policies (water or general policies, e.g. agricultural, land planning ); provides essential outputs to the evaluation of the likelihood that water bodies within the RB will fail to meet the environmental quality objectives set (Annex II). Output of BLS to water management & decision-making: measuring the room for manoeuvre for meeting WFDobjectives: combination of forecast situation compared to objectives & time left to meet the objectives. Can be expressed in annual mean investment needs after fulfillment of existing directives.

89 Thank you for listening! Eduard Interwies

90 Overall issues for the development of a full BLS at the Neretva elements of a work plan Eduard Interwies InterSus Sustainability Services WWF-Living Neretva Project WFD-BLS workshop February 2009 Jahorina, BiH

91 Overall issues: why? In the following presentations: what information is available as a starting point for the development of a BLS in the Neretva RB? Based on the economic analysis report: therefore, short introduction to the approach of the report and the template regarding BLS first ( what did we look for and how?) BUT: some overall issues need to be discussed first in order to then become more specific/practical

92 Promising process: According to the entity Water Laws, obligation of each entity to elaborate own Strategy for Water Management (first step towards elaboration of River Basin Management Plans) Strategies will determine water management policies in BiH. The elaboration of these strategies (commenced in the FBiH, yet to start in RS which has elaborated the Framework Plan for Development of Water Management in RS in 2006 as a step towards the Strategy for Water Management) update? These strategies should be based on the prospective thinking of the WFD and make explicit links to the development of the BLS according to the WFD!

93 Overall issues Institutional set-up of the work: Integration with national WFD-implementation efforts [Coordination with Croatia? GEF-project] The Danube RB? Main working areas /themes: Based on results of economic analysis, proposal: hydro, agri, tourism, other issues (proposal to be discussed & can be revised; esp. issue of water supply & sewage investments?)

94 Overall issues Resources / timing: Set-up of working groups per topic feasible? Who takes the lead, who participates? Integration of stakeholders & experts Resources for more detailed studies or projections mostly/only expert judgements? WWF could possibly provide a help desk Timing: Full BLS & links to IMPRESS: by 2010? 2011?

95 The economic analysis report as developed by the last project phase: overall approach & the template regarding BLS Eduard Interwies InterSus Sustainability Services WWF-Living Neretva Project WFD-BLS workshop February 2009 Jahorina, BiH

96 Baseline scenario Work done in the economic analysis report: identify existing projections for the step 1 close gaps through expert judgements where possible (but: limited resources & time ) collect information as far as possible on decided measures affecting the future development identified to do s for next project phase Detailed Table in the Annex of the report regarding information on parameters & policy projections for the BLS

97 Baseline Scenario: policy areas investigated Exogenous drivers (population growth, general economic development, technological changes, changes in taxes/fiscal regime) Water policies and investments (estimated investment in water supply/wastewater treatment, changes in water pricing policies, etc.) Macroeconomic policies (past trends & future projections: agricultural, energy, industrial, transport policy, etc.) Global policies (impact of (pre-)accession to the EU on key economic sectors, WTO/GATS, etc.) And: identified/described measures already decided that will impact the situation in the Neretva

98 What was done in more detail: For each of the four policy areas: source, quality/reliability, method used for projecting, projected timeframe was investigated; For each parameter/ policy projection: adapted available projections to the Neretva (as far as possible) If not available: develop estimations based on expert judgment (very limited) identified decided measures Overall estimations on future water demand and expected pressures on water resources (quantity/quality) in the Neretva were NOT developed

99 Results from the Neretva economic analysis project on BLS: Issues related to agriculture Discussion & the way ahead WWF-Living Neretva Project WFD-BLS workshop Erna Coric February 2009 Jahorina, BiH

100 Demographic changes Important driver of demographic changes are internal migrations from rural areas to the municipal & urban centers within the Neretva-Trebisnjica river basin. Official statistical data on this process do not exist but there is obvious and constant growth of population in major centers like Mostar and Trebinje Effects on agriculture (& agricultural population pressures on water)??

101 Water demand & trends from agriculture Limited information Framework for Water Management in BiH (1994) some number for technological water, but outdated (?) Information on pesticides & nutrients use?

102 Agricultural policy Law on financial support to agricultural production (2004): gov of FBiH allocates not less than 3% of Federal budget every year for improvement of primary agricultural production; For RS the current percentage of the budget allocated for agriculture is 4%. In 2006 Agricultural faculty in Sarajevo commissioned by Federal Agriculture Ministry: completed Mid-term Development Strategy of Agricultural Sector ( ) on FBiH-level: Strategy defines the general objectives of agricultural sector. Strategy mentions 2 possible scenarios for future development Strategy proposes increasing of financial support for agriculture from prescribed 3%, and implemented 1.5%, to the necessary 6%.

103 Agricultural policy In 2006, RS adopted the Strategy of agricultural development (until 2015). % of RS budget allocated for agricultural development, instead of 4%, will be 6% in the following three years, after that 8%. Long-term objectives of the agricultural development in RS defined; Action Plan for implementation of the Strategy s objectives also been developed. Inflation in 2007 has caused an increase in prices of agricultural products as well. According to Department for statistics and economic research of Central Bank BiH the prices of agricultural products have increased 8.8% in FBiH and 10.3% in RS for 2007.

104 Agricultural policy According to the expert judgment agricultural areas in the Neretva-Trebisnjica river basin are being privatized in the last years. As a result, some areas which were abandoned from agriculture in the past 20 year are being exploited again. Specifically around Mostar city, there are big newly planted areas with grapes. More data on this issue: to be collected! Recently, discussions on rural development in BiH became more active and it is expected that an appropriate strategy in this area will be developed in near future after that, issues of projections of agricultural development would be easier accessible and could be addressed further.

105 EU accession & agriculture Strategy for Integration of BiH into the EU defines the measures for each economic sector which are necessary to be fulfilled by BiH in the process of stabilisation and accession to EU, for agriculture: Harmonize domestic legislative with EU legislative in area of agriculture, elaborate Strategy of agricultural development BiH, adopt necessary regulations for land protection that is being degraded & destroyed, define the rule on ownership and renting the land, regulate crediting of agriculture and subsidizing specific products, enable institutional capacities in agricultural sector in BiH for planning and efficient usage of EU funds, establish a system of quality control for priority products, etc.

106 EU accession & agriculture & CAP Mid-Term Development Strategy BiH : current BiH agriculture couldn t be competitive with products from EU, because BiH supports for this sector are still very low. In period of negotiations & before accession, BiH has to achieve necessary reforms in this sector; facilitate its integration into the EU CAP Support of EU pre-accession Funds is expected for part of reforms in agricultural sector, but significant amounts from own national budget needed

107 EU accession & agriculture & CAP Specifically for the Neretva-Trebisnjica river basin: very good potential for a big increase of agricultural production, due to numerous big agricultural fields which have not been used to their full potential, and due to flat areas towards the south and favourable climatic conditions. These are reasons why this area should benefit significantly from the access to the above mentioned Funds. However, there are still no specific plans about the future allocation of those potential investments. Such an increase in agricultural production would create additional pressures on the water resources, both on quantity (higher abstractions for agriculture) and quality (increase of diffuse pollution)

108 Plans for increased irrigated agriculture (?) Plans on increasing irrigated agriculture in the basin are not finalized yet, but some information is partly available on entity level in Strategy for the development of agriculture document, but also in RS Strategy for Irrigation which will be available in July 2008 (now available?); Overall, no details for the N-T River Basin available (?)

109 Ideas on the way ahead Some estimations exist on how agriculture could develop in the basin indicating a potential increase (but also elements towards a decrease: EU accession & competitiveness; move to urban areas etc.): need a full picture, so: More detailed work on future demand from agriculture, potential increase in diffuse pollution, pesticide use etc. would be helpful; this activity could be well linked to a survey of the agriculture activities and related use of the water in the basin; Working group could develop scenarios of agricultural developments in the basin, linked to the resulting pressures to the water environment

110 Results from the Neretva economic analysis project on BLS: Issues related to hydropower Discussion & the way ahead WWF-Living Neretva Project WFD-BLS workshop Dalibor Vrhovac February 2009 Jahorina, BiH

111 Energy policy Study on the Electro-energetic Sector: completed 02/08 on BiH level (for both entities); planned period of study is until 2020; Study deals with several basic thematic units: energetic reserves; consumption, production, transmission and distribution of electricity, restructuring of energetic sector; support to the social categories consumers; coal, central heating, gas, oil; consumption management, energy saving and renewable sources; environment & investments;

112 Energy policy Study on the Electro-energetic Sector: Study contains: overview of existing hydro & thermo power plants, needs for revitalization of existing production units, estimations of production of electricity in existing plants until 2020 for three different scenarios, analysis of technical feasibility of options for future plants, new investment & operation costs, and their competitiveness on the market. One of the suggestions of this Study is to enact a Law on energy for the whole BiH. This Study includes elaboration of complex energy balances for production & consumption of energy until 2020, according to 3 scenarios:

113 Energy policy - Scenario S2 (reference scenario): assumes big increase in GDP & highest consumption of energy, without any additional measures; - Scenario S3, with assumption of bigger usage of renewable sources of energy and measures of energetic efficiency; - Scenario S1, with relatively slow increase of GDP & least consumption of energy

114 Energy policy Study on the Electro-energetic Sector also contains the plan of investments for the period , related to the Neretva-Trebisnjica river basin, with the following characteristics: HPP and TPP Installed Specific Total power investment investment (MW) (KM/kW) (000 KM) Period of investing HPP Glavaticevo HPP Mostarsko blato (in construction) Small HPP Tihanjina- Mlade-Trebizat Small HPP Listica river Revitalization of TPP Gacko TPP Gacko

115 EU accession & Energy policy Strategy for Integration of BiH into the EU defines the measures for each economic sector which are necessary to be fulfilled by BiH in the process of stabilisation and accession to EU, for energy policy: Elaborate Strategy for energetic sector in BiH, strengthening institutions at BiH level for preparation and implementation of reforms of electro-energetic sector, integration into EU energetic market, etc.

116 Specific (potential) projects Elektroprivreda EPHZHB: ongoing project of construction of new HPP Mostarsko Blato; 2x30 MW of installed power & will produce 167 GWh of electricity per year. HPP is expected to be functioning by 2010.

117 Specific (potential) projects Elektroprivreda RS: planning new projects in Trebišnjica RB These projects include channeling some underground waters which only partly belong to Trebišnjica river basin; these waters, will be channeled towards the existing accumulation Bileća & further used in the downstream HPPs: Trebinje I, Trebinje II, Dubrovnik I and Čapljina; provide additional GWh of electricity/year; waters used for irrigation of karst fields in upper part of Trebisnjica RB. This project includes construction of three new HPP: HPP Nevesinje, HPP Dabar & HPP Bileća.

118 Specific (potential) projects Electricity production in planned HPPs in the upper part of the N-T River Basin Hydro Power Plant New annual production (GWh) Nevesinje Dabar Bileća Trebinje I Trebinje II 228.0

119 Specific (potential) projects Elektroprivreda BiH: plans for constructing constructing three new HPP: Glavatičevo, Bjelimići and reversible HPP Bjelimići (which is not directly on the Neretva river course); feasibility study done. Hydro Power Plant Installed power (MW) Annual production (GWh) Investment (KM) Type Glavatičevo 28, , Accumulation Bjelimići 100, , Accumulation RHPP Bjelimići 2 x Reversible / pumping HPP

120 Specific (potential) projects But: 2005 FBiH government analysis of economic justification of construction of HPPs in upper part of river Neretva: conclusion that HPP Glavatičevo is not economically justified (while the remaining two HPPs were not even planned then). Although the recent Feasibility Study states that the whole project is justified, there are still confronting opinions about this project. Therefore, the implementation is quite questionable. Adding to this issue, there is a big resistance of the local community and environmental organizations towards this project.

121 Specific (potential) projects Finally: The Upper Horizon project is planning to increase energy production in order to cover energy needs, so as to improve irrigation and support local agriculture, the construction is on going. At present detailed project data are lacking and it is advised to stress the analysis of costs and benefits.

122 Ideas on the way ahead The energy sector development strategy indicates a potential hydropower production increase. Potential influence of this for reaching the WFD-environmental objectives & fulfillment of the requirements of new modifications in order to allow for a deterioration of environmental quality due to this strategy: need to be investigated. Additional information on future measures in the hydropower sector will be necessary in the future in order to better estimate their impacts See also: EU-environmental impact assessment of planned dams, WWF-workshop in April 2009 Role of water agencies (big & small HPP)? Can a BLSworking group on hydropower be the forum for exchange?

123 Results from the Neretva economic analysis project on BLS: Issues related to tourism Discussion & the way ahead WWF-Living Neretva Project WFD-BLS workshop Dalibor Vrhovac February 2009 Jahorina, BiH

124 Tourism policy Elaboration of Strategy of Tourism Development FBiH: commenced 12/07, project duration 12 months. Project coordinator Federal Ministry of Environment & Tourism, and the implementers are two companies from Croatia. Strategy will be developed for the period Recently completed. Strategic Plan of Tourism Development for the Neretva River Basin: completed 10/07 within the Project Valorisation of environmental tourism in South-East Europe financed by Toskana Region, implemented by NGO UCODEP According to this strategic plan main attractions of the Neretva: wild nature; sport & adventure; history & culture. Document also provides a three year plan of tourism development of this region.

125 Tourism policy It can be noted that the Mostar has seen a big increase in tourism in the recent years, a trend that is expected to continue in the future. Study on Sustainable Development through Eco-Tourism in Bosnia and Herzegovina financed by JICA referred to the preparation of master plans for Blagaj, Podvelez and Nevesinje within the Neretva-Trebisnjica area. Information available (yearly for N-T) on: tourist arrivals, nights, turnover by nights (see annex table)

126 Ideas on the way ahead Overall: tourism can be of crucial importance for the future of the Neretva basin: income & employment opportunity; Depending on the direction tourism takes/is supported: positive side-effects for nature protection & water quality. But: not sufficient information available, e.g. on the ecotourism market & its growth potential; Are the plans developed (see above) implemented? Who is in charge? Ecosystem services approach can give clearer indications on the potential of ecotourism Working group on tourism can provide better projections and a forum for promoting sustainable tourism? Important to include tourism sector & their expertise!

127 Thank you for listening! Eduard Interwies

128 Results from the Neretva economic analysis project on BLS: Issues related to other potential drivers / trend variables (beyond the three topics discussed) Discussion & the way ahead WWF-Living Neretva Project Erna Coric WFD-BLS workshop February 2009 Jahorina, BiH

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