TUI Group Investor Presentation

Transcription

1 TUI Group Investor Presentation Commerzbank Sector Conference Week 26 August 2010 TUI AG Investor Relations Seite 1

2 Future-related statements This presentation contains a number of statements related to the future development of TUI. These statements are based both on assumptions and estimates. Although we are convinced that these future-related statements are realistic, we cannot guarantee them, for our assumptions involve risks and uncertainties which may give rise to situations in which the actual results differ substantially from the expected ones. The potential reasons for such differences include market fluctuations, the development of world market fluctuations, the development of world market commodity prices, the development of exchange rates or fundamental changes in the economic environment. TUI does not intend or assume any obligation to update any forward-looking statement to reflect events or circumstances after the date of these materials. TUI AG Investor Relations Page 2

3 Agenda I. Group overview II. Financials & Financing update III. Outlook TUI AG Investor Relations Page 3

4 TUI current group structure Tourism Tour operator Hotels Cruises At equity 43.33% TUI AG Investor Relations Page 4

5 Tourism TUI Travel TUI AG Investor Relations Page 5

6 Tourism TUI Travel business segments Mainstream Sector Specialist & Emerging Markets Sector Central, Northern and Western Europe 22 m customers Classic tour operator business / market leadership 40 specialist tour operators worldwide Around 1 m customers Exclusive products / strong local brands Activity Sector 57 business units in 8 countries Lifestyle travel products / market-leading brands Accommodation & Destinations Sector Incoming agencies in 48 countries Online portals in Europe and Asia Destination services / online accommodation TUI AG Investor Relations Page 6

7 Tourism TUI Travel Building blocks of growth Short to medium term improvement Sustainable long-term growth Cost Synergies Growing Mainstream Margins Delivering Growth Delivering 200 m of synergies Improving margins on 7 bn of under performing revenue Mainstream Differentiated content Long haul opportunity Specialist organic growth Emerging markets Acquisitions Clear strategy for growth TUI AG Investor Relations Page 7

8 Tourism TUI Travel operational development Turnover and Earnings ( m) Source market customers (Mainstream) m Q3 09/10 Q3 08/09 % Turnover 3, , Underlying EBITDA Underlying EBITA in '000 Q3 09/10 Q3 08/09 % Central Europe 1,965 2, Northern Region 1,905 1, Western Europe 1,419 1, Total 5,289 5, Turnover declined to 3.9 bn ( 4.0 bn) mainly due to the impact from the volcanic ash and the subsequent closure of European airspace Underlying EBITA at 93.3 m was almost flat vs. the prior year ( 98.0 m) Positive effects from integration synergies Improved customer volumes and average margins contributed by French tour operator activities Canada benefited from Sunwing s profitable summer programme following the strategic venture Decreases in earnings in UK and Germany due to weaker trading; UK hit by higher volume in the lower margin lates period, Germany impacted by shift in demand to lower value products TUI AG Investor Relations Page 8

9 Tourism TUI Hotels & Resorts TUI AG Investor Relations Seite 9

10 Tourism TUI Hotels & Resorts at a glance No 1 leisure hotelier in Europe with 243 hotels and approx. 154,000 beds Most hotel companies with local partners Focus on four star category High occupancy rates through access to TUI Travel customers and direct distribution TUI AG Investor Relations Page 10

11 Tourism TUI Hotels & Resorts overview Group-controlled hotel beds by regions Other 7% Caribbean 21% Total: 153,537 Western Mediterranean 32% North Africa/ Egypt 22% 5 Stars 24% Hotels by categories 3 Stars 12% Eastern Mediterranean 18% Total: Stars 64% TUI AG Investor Relations Page 11

12 Tourism TUI Hotels & Resorts operational development Turnover and Earnings ( m)* Occupancy rate(%) Average revenue m Q3 09/10 Q3 08/09 % Total Turnover External Turnover Underlying EBITDA Underlying EBITA % 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 73.2% 73.4% +0.2pp. in per bed -2% Q3 08/09 Q3 09/10 Q3 08/09 Q3 09/10 Total turnover of 200 m, slightly down by 4% mainly due to a decline in average revenues per bed; this development was only partly offset by a slight rise in occupancy rates on higher capacity Underlying EBITA with 18.3 m up by 6 m The hotel sector benefited from cost savings and positive effects from FX translation, as well as sound occupancy rates; adverse impact from lower average rates TUI AG Investor Relations Page 12 * Due to the decision to transfer Magic Life to TUI Travel, Magic Life has no longer been reported under discontinued operation, unlike the previous quarters.

13 Tourism TUI Cruises TUI AG Investor Relations Seite 13

14 Tourism Cruises overview Hapag-Lloyd Cruises operates 4 ships in the German premium and luxury segment EUROPA, the flagship of the fleet, is for the tenth time in succession the only 5 stars plus cruise ship in the world* * rated by Berlitz Cruise Guide Joint Venture (50/50) with Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. First cruise of Mein Schiff in May 2009 Fleet expansion announced for May 2011 with Mein Schiff II TUI AG Investor Relations Page 14

15 Tourism Cruises operational development Turnover and Earnings ( m) Average daily rates ( ) m Q3 09/10 Q3 08/09 % Turnover Underlying EBITDA n.m. Underlying EBITA n.m. Hapag-Lloyd Kreuzfahrten % Comment: The joint venture TUI Cruises is consolidated at equity 0 Q3 08/09 Q3 09/10 Turnover down by 29% to 32 m, due to an unscheduled time in dock of MS Europa in Singapore Underlying EBITA improved by 6 m to 2.2 m ( -3.5 m) Hapag-Lloyd Kreuzfahrten on last year s level; dry-dock period of MS Europa with only minor impact since most of resulting cancellations were covered by corresponding insurance policies TUI Cruises with significant improvement, prior-year period still reflected start-up costs Occupancy rate Hapag-Lloyd Kreuzfahrten at 54.7% (71.0%) due to MS Europa dry-dock period TUI Cruises at 92.7% significantly up q-o-q TUI AG Investor Relations Page 15

16 Volcanic ash disruption Effects from the volcano eruption in Iceland European airspace almost fully closed for up to six days as a result of volcanic ash; further airspace closures in May Regular business affected by almost 12 days, starting from 15 April 2010 Cancellation of over 175,000 holidays Approx. 180,000 customers stranded in resorts Largest repatriation campaign initiated all over Europe Total cost of welfare, repatriation and cancelled flights are now expected to amount to 128 m Largest portion relates to TUI Travel ( m), by far less significant is the impact on TUI Hotels & Resorts ( 3.4 m) and Cruises ( 1.2 m) These costs are separately identified in the 3rd quarter 09/10 due to their one-off character TUI AG Investor Relations Page 16

17 Container shipping Hapag-Lloyd participation TUI AG Investor Relations Page 17

18 Container shipping Hapag-Lloyd at a glance TUI AG Albert Ballin KG Leading global container carrier 43 1/3% 56 2/3% BidCo 100% 120 container vessels with a total capacity of 521,900 TEU* Revenues in PF 08/09: 4.9 bn Volume in PF 08/09: 4.8 m TEU *Fleet Status: 31 March 2010 Hapag-Lloyd Sale of majority stake of Hapag-Lloyd to Albert Ballin in March 2009 Remaining participation of 43.3% consolidated at equity from Q onwards TUI AG Investor Relations Page 18

19 Container shipping Hapag-Lloyd services worldwide Total number of services: 76 TUI AG Investor Relations Page 19 Status:

20 Container shipping Freight rates and transport volumes Share of volume for 2009 (m TEU) Development of freight rates & volumes since 2007 Atlantic 23% Latin America 19% 30% 20% 10% April - June '10 '09 % Volume ('000 TEU) 1,279 1, Freight rates (US$) 1,536 1, Trans-Pacific 21% 0% -10% -20% Australasia 15% -30% Mar 07 Jun 07 Sep 07 Dec 07 Mar 08 Jun 08 Sep 08 Dec 08 Mar 09 Jun 09 Sep 09 Dec 09 Mar 10 Jun 10 Far East 22% Volume Freight rate Calendar Year TUI AG Investor Relations Page 20

21 Container shipping Operational development (on a 100% basis) Turnover and Earnings ( m) m Q3 09/10 Q3 08/09 % Turnover 1, , Underlying EBITDA Underlying EBITA Bridge Underl. EBITA ( m) Q3 08/ Q3 09/ Volume Rate Cost Bunker/ cutting Other Turnover improved strongly by 28.5% to around 1.6 bn attributable to an increase in transport volumes and a considerable rise in US$-based freight rates Underlying EBITA strongly improved by m to m ( m); record result on a quarterly basis Rates were increased by 354 US$/TEU on average y-o-y Positive contribution from recovering demand Planned cost savings were successfully implemented Strengthening of the US$ against the Euro TUI AG Investor Relations Page 21

22 Container shipping Growth rates for selected economic indicators GDP, World Trade and Container Transport return to normalised levels in % 12% 12% 10.0% 11% 11% 10% 7% 7% 5.0% 5.1% 5.2% 4% 3% 3.0% 6% 4.6% 4.3% 0.0% e 2011e 0.6% 5.0% 10.0% 8% 12% 15.0% World GDP Growth (real USD) World Trade Growth (real USD) Container Transport Growth (TEU) TUI AG Investor Relations Page 22 Sources: IMF (Apr/July 10), IHS Global Insight (June 10)

23 Container shipping Global container transport Development of transport volumes, e (TEU m) CAGR 7% CAGR 10% E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E HISTORICAL FORECAST TUI AG Investor Relations Page 23 Source: Global Insight, June 2010

24 Agenda I. Group overview II. Financials & Financing update III. Outlook TUI AG Investor Relations Page 24

25 P&L statement Key figures m Q3 09/10 Q3 08/09 % Turnover 4, , Underlying EBITA Reported EBITA n.m. Group profit m 9M 09/10 9M 08/09 % Turnover 9, , Underlying EBITA Reported EBITA Group profit n.m. TUI AG Investor Relations Page 25

26 Balance sheet 30 June 10 Net financial debt position bn 06/10 03/10 09/09 06/09 Financial liabilities non-current current Cash Net debt Net debt assets held for sale Net debt incl. assets held for sale The net financial debt position decreased with the typical seasonal swing in the tourism business compared to the end of March The net financial debt position increased y-o-y due to additional liquidity support for Hapag-Lloyd in H TUI AG Investor Relations Page 26

27 Capital employed in shipping -in m - Amount Comment Initial HL investment (43.33%) 910 Fresh equity 124 Debt equity swap 153 Equity stake Hapag-Lloyd 1,187 03/ / / /2010 Put option in 2012 Hybrid I Hybrid II Convertible into equity from 03/2011 Interest step-up after state guarantee Hybrid III (ex CTA) m repayment guaranteed by Hamburg Bridging loan 227 Repayment after return of state guarantee Vendor loan 180 Maturity 03/2014 Loans incl. hybrids 1,322 Total 2,509 Real estate Hapag-Lloyd 150 Sale planned for 2010 TUI AG Investor Relations Page 27

28 Pro forma financing TUI AG assuming no repayment from HL until 2012 and excluding operational effects -in m CASH IN Cash TUI AG a) c) HL Real est. 150 SHL TTP 79b) 150c) d) 455 Repaym. City of HH 25 SHL TTP Disposal proceeds / repayments of capital employed in HL (approx. 2.5bn) Asset streamlining programme (approx. 0.5bn) CASH OUT Repayment of bonds ( 1.1bn in H2/2012) / /11 a) includes cash deposit of TUI Travel of 430 m b) outstanding shareholder loan (12/10) netted against deposit c) split loans/private placements: 50 m (09/10); 150 m (12/10) d) further early repayment of 35 m in Q3 TUI AG Investor Relations Page 28 Cash Senior notes Loans and private placements

29 Agenda I. Group overview II. Financials & Financing update III. Outlook TUI AG Investor Relations Page 29

30 Tourism Summer 2010: Trading since last update y-o-y variation % Bookings at 2 May Last 12 weeks Bookings at 1 August UK Nordic Region Germany France Belgium Netherlands TUI AG Investor Relations Page 30

31 Tourism Trading update Current Trading 1 Summer 2010 y-o-y variation% ASP² Sales² Customers² Risk Capacity³ Short-haul Medium-haul Long-haul UK Nordic Region Northern Region Germany Austria Switzerland Poland Central Europe France Flat Belgium Netherlands Western Europe Flat Specialist +4 Flat -4 Activity NA +4 NA A&D ¹ These statistics are up to 1 August 2010 and are shown on a constant currency basis ² These statistics relate to all customers whether risk or non-risk ³ These statistics include all risk capacity programmes 4 These statistics refer to Online business only; Sales refer to total transaction value (TTV) and customers refers to roomnights TUI AG Investor Relations Page 31

32 Outlook FY 09/10 Expectations for underlying earnings (EBITA) Synergy benefits from integration and stronger FX rate of GBP vs. Positive effects from cooperation between TUIfly and Air Berlin Negative margin impact in the source markets UK and Germany Earnings on last year s level expected Decline in average rates per bednight partly offset by cost cutting measures Slight decrease in earnings expected Chance: Continued positive booking trend for the summer season Earnings expected to rise slightly Assuming a continued recovery in the container shipping business, significant positive earnings are expected The Group result for FY 2009/10 is now expected to be positive TUI AG Investor Relations Page 32

33 Group strategy Maximising value of Hapag-Lloyd investment, closely monitoring options to exit the business Pursuing restrictive cash and working capital management Optimising the structure within the tourism segments Expanding the tour operator business in growth markets like Russia and the Ukraine Focusing on a high-yield, differentiated hotel portfolio in TUI Hotel & Resorts Expanding the market share in the German-speaking volume market for cruises TUI AG Investor Relations Page 33

34 IV. Appendix A. Financials Underlying and reported EBITA Profit and loss statement Balance sheet B. Financial calendar TUI AG Investor Relations Page 34

35 A. Underlying and reported EBITA Q3 & 9M 09/10 m Q3 09/10 Q3 08/09 % Tourism Underlying EBITA TUI Travel TUI Hotels & Resorts Cruises n.m. Reported EBITA n.m. TUI Travel n.m. TUI Hotels & Resorts Cruises n.m. Central operations Underlying EBITA Reported EBITA n.m. Continuing operations Underlying EBITA Reported EBITA n.m. Container shipping* Underlying EBITA n.m. Reported EBITA n.m. 9M 09/10 9M 08/09 % n.m *for information only on a 100% basis TUI AG Investor Relations Page 35

36 A. Profit and loss statement million Q3 2009/10 Q3 2008/09 Var. % 9M 2009/10 9M 2008/09 Var. % restated restated Turnover 4, , , , Cost of sales 3, , , , Gross profit Administrative expenses , Other income/other expenses n.m Impairment of goodwill - - n.m n.m. Financial result Financial income Financial expenses Share of results of joint ventures and associates n.m n.m. Earnings before income taxes , Income taxes n.m Result from continuing operations Result from discontinued operation n.m n.m. Group loss n.m. Group loss attributable to shareholders of TUI AG n.m. Group loss attributable to minority interest n.m Group loss n.m. Basic and diluted earnings per share (in ) n.m. from continuing operations (in ) from discontinued operation (in ) n.m n.m. TUI AG Investor Relations Page 36

37 A. Balance sheet 30 June Sep Oct 2008 million restated restated Assets Goodwill 3 036, , ,0 Other intangible assets 948,7 887,9 883,7 Investment property 66,3 76,7 87,1 Property, plant and equipment 2 504, , ,9 Companies measured at equity 1 805, ,0 446,3 Financial assets available for sale 606,9 103,0 117,1 Trade accounts receivables and other receivables 611, ,0 423,4 Derivative financial instruments 214,5 111,4 78,3 Deferred income tax claims 394,6 277,9 182,1 Non-current assets , , ,9 Inventories 95,0 81,5 81,1 Financial assets available for sale 0,0 2,0 11,4 Trade accounts receivables and other receivables 2 649, , ,9 Derivative financial instruments 353,0 338,1 219,3 Current income tax receivables 146,0 21,2 42,3 Cash and cash equivalents 1 680, , ,4 Assets held for sale 258,7 405, ,8 Current assets 5 182, , , , , ,1 TUI AG Investor Relations Page June Sep Oct 2008 million restated restated Equity and liabilities Subscribed capital 643,1 642,8 642,3 Capital reserves 913,5 871, ,9 Revenue reserves - 43,6 230,0-812,7 Hybrid capital 294,8 294,8 294,8 Equity before minority interests 1 807, , ,3 Minority interests 383,0 324,4 321,5 Equity 2 190, , ,8 Pension provisions and similar obligations 967,6 838,6 573,6 Current income tax provisions 182,0 169,5 157,7 Deferred income tax provisions 217,3 181,3 273,0 Other provisions 549,1 500,3 524,5 Non-current provisions 1 916, , ,8 Financial liabilities 2 854, , ,2 Derivative financial instruments 95,2 78,7 95,5 Other liabilities 95,8 92,6 95,0 Non-current liabilities 3 045, , ,7 Non-current provisions and liabilities 4 961, , ,5 Pension provisions and similar obligations 34,0 29,8 34,5 Current income tax provisions 71,0 85,9 154,1 Other provisions 368,1 415,2 384,6 Current provisions 473,1 530,9 573,2 Financial liabilities 1 725,2 539,7 810,5 Trade accounts payable 2 270, , ,9 Derivative financial instruments 317,0 363,4 284,2 Other liabilities 3 336, , ,7 Current liabilities 7 649, , ,3 Liabilities related to assets held for sale 97,4 180, ,3 Current provisions and liabilities 8 219, , , , , ,1

38 B. Financial calendar 11 August December 2010* 09 February 2011* Third Quarter 09/10 Financial Year 09/10 Analysts Meeting Annual General Meeting *scheduled TUI Investor Relations - investor.relations@tui.com - phone: TUI AG Investor Relations Page 38