Shifting International Trade Routes

Transcription

1 Shifting International Trade Routes Update on the Panama Canal Expansion Rodolfo Sabonge Vicepresident Market Research and Analysis January 15, 2009

2 Canal Performance Indicators Canal Expansion Program Impact and Repercussions of The New Locks

3 PCUMS TONNAGE

4 Average PC/UMS Tonnage for Commercial Transits 4,832 9,931 18,940 23,510 FY 1955 FY 1975 FY 1995 FY 2008

5 Traffic and Revenues OPERATIONAL RESULTS FY-2008 Transits 14,702 Cargo (millions of PC/UMS tons) Canal Waters Time (hours) booked Canal Waters Time (hours) regular $2,200 $2,000 $1,800 $1,600 REVENUES (B/. MM) * Var. Revenues 769 1,994 1,225 Expenses Million dollars $1,400 $1,200 $1,000 $800 $600 EBITDA EBITDA 140 1,082 *Estimated 942 EXPENSES $400 $200 $- FY 2000 FY 2001 FY 2002 FY 2003 FY 2004 FY 2005 FY 2006 FY 2007 FY 2008 Revenues Expenses EBITDA

6 Dredging Investment Program Accumulated Investment (in millions of US Dollars) 1,569 Locomotives 113 Hydraulic System Per year Proj Technology Rail System Tugboats

7 Project to improve locks chamber lighting Started in May 2005, completed in June high mast light fixtures were replaced, resulting in an increase in brightness as high as 300% between poles. 107 retractile luminaries installed in Miraflores Locks; 40 in Pedro Miguel; and 132 in Gatun.

8 New Tugboats Eight new tugboats arrived between January 2007 and August Contracted 13 more tugboats, the first tugboat is scheduled to arrive by mid The contract also includes 2 options for 7 additional tugboats each, which will augment the current fleet to 42 tugboats by FY RFP for 2 new tender dredge tugboats in FY 2009, to assist dredging work for the Expansion Program.

9 Second Tie-Up Station North of Pedro Miguel Locks Completed in December additional transits each day, important during fog season.

10 Merry-Go-Round System in Gatun Locks Merry-Go-Round operations with the new turn tables began in October, The gain in throughput, together with the second tieup station in Cartagena will increase capacity by two Panamax transits a day.

11 New Cutter Suction Dredge RFP for new cutter suction dredge which will eventually replace the existing dredge, Mindi.

12 Moody s Investors Service rated A1 Government Related Issuer ( GRI ) The Proposed Senior Unsecured Debt Obligations of approximately $2 Billion of the Panama Canal Authority received a Prospective (P) A2 ACP PIERCES A3 PANAMA S COUNTRY CEILING 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Investment Grade Default Probability Caa3 Caa2 Caa1 B3 B2 B1 Ba3 Ba2 Ba1 Baa3 Baa2 Baa1 A3 A2 Aa3 A1 Aa2 Aa1 Aaa Sovereign Rating Speculative Grade Country ACP Ceiling 18% 10% 14% 0% 0% 0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.4%0.5% 1% 1.2% 2% 4% 7% 24% 33% 44% 66% In Moody s view, the Panama Canal Expansion Program will likely be completed successfully given ACP s management experience Credit Rating

13 The Panama Canal Trade and Main Users In the relevant routes (Asiaeast coast of the United States) the Panama Canal transported 43.0% of the Panama Canal trade cargo in % of Canal cargo traffic originates in or is destined to the United States Total Cargo Movement FY 2008 USERS FY 2007* FY 2008* 2008 (%) United States China Chile European Union Japan South Korea Peru * Measured in Million of Long Tons

14 Importance of the Panama Canal Countries of America (in millions of metric tons) CY 2007 Carga a través del Canal Importancia del Canal para las exportaciones Carga a través del Canal Importacia del Canal para las importaciones Importancia origen/total Exportaciones Importancia Destino/Total Importaciones País Origen % % Destino % % Argentina Brasil Canadá Caribe América Central y Panamá Chile Colombia México Otros países CE Suramérica Ecuador Perú Venezuela Estados Unidos Total carga del Canal Sorce: ACP with maritime trade projections of Global Insight ( Global Trade Navigator ), Jun 2008.

15 130 PC/UMS by Market Segment (in millions - FY ) Container Dry Bulk Liquid Bulk General Cargo Refrigerated Cargo Passenger Vehicle Carrier Others

16 Growth of container traffic through the Panama Canal ( ) Transits (1,302-3,544) Capacity TEUs (0.75M-12.9M) Transits Million TEUs

17 IMPACT OF U.S. ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN ON CONTAINER SERVICES THROUGH THE PANAMA CANAL Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct Capacity (M. TEUs) Vessels Deployed Average Vessel Size (TEUs) 2,816 2,942 3,189 3,201 3,298 3,516 3,559 3,595 Number of Services Through the Canal

18 Canal Performance Indicators Short-term Forecast

19 World Economic Outlook Economist Intelligence Unit January, Real GDP growth (%) World (market exchange rates) US Japan Euro area China World trade growth (%) Goods IHS Global Insight January, 2009 Quarterly Annual 08:4 09:1 09:2 09: US Real GDP (percent change) Federal Funds Rate (percent) Ten-Year Treasury Yield (percent) Oil Price, WTI (Dollars/barrel) Consumer Price Index (% change y/y) Housing Starts (Millions) Consumer Sentiment (Univ. Of Michigan) Unemployment Rate (percent)

20 (annual growth rate %) U.S. GDP Growth Forecasts (Source: EIU) April 2006 Jan 2007 Real Feb 2008 Jul 2008 Sep 2008 Nov 2008 Source: ACP with information from The Economist Intelligence Unit.

21 World trade could decrease for the first time in more than 20 years Rate of Growth (%) World Trade Growth (EIU, Dec 2008) World Developed Countries Developing Countries

22 US Containerized Imports from North East Asia (in million TEUs) % Var Q1 Q2 Q3 Total Q1 Q2 Q3 Total Q1 Q2 Q3 Total US East Coast % 3.7% -3.9% 0.8% Us Gulf Coast % 3.7%-15.7%-2.2% US East C. Total % 3.7% -4.7% 0.6% US West Coast %-10.8%-10.0%-9.9% Total % -7.4% -8.6% -7.3% Source: PIERS

23 China s Growth Crecimiento del PIB - China Fuente: EIU, Dec 2008 China s GDP Growth?_ UPDATE 1-IMF: lower China growth, unprecedented slowdown Mon Dec 15, :22am EST MADRID, Dec 15 (Reuters) - The IMF could cut its forecast for Chinese 2009 economic growth to around 5 percent in its next revision as the global economy suffers an unprecedented slowdown, IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn said on Monday. In its last forecast released in November, the International Monetary Fund had predicted that China's growth would fall to 8.5 percent in 2009 from 9.7 percent this year. November's forecast for 2009 was 0.8 percentage points lower than the IMF's previous forecast. "We started with China at 11 pct growth, then 8, then 7 then China will probably grow at 5 or 6 percent. The possibility of a global recession is real, we realize something must be done," " said Strauss-Kahn during a conference in the Spanish capital. "We are facing an unprecedented decline in output and we have evidence of substantial uncertainty limiting the effectiveness of some fiscal policy measures," he said. "We anticipate that the gross effect will last some time. We need large and diversified stimulus support that will last longer than one or two quarters." "An adequate level will be around 2 percent of (world) GDP -- $1.2 trillion -- and this may make a sizeable difference and reduce the risk of a damaging global recession," he said. "The good news, with some exceptions, maybe a lot of exceptions, we can see the beginning of the recovery end of 2009, beginning of 2010, but there are a lot of downside risks," he added. (Reporting by Andrew Hay; Editing by Jason Webb and Christian Lowe)

24 160 Freight Rates for Dry Bulk Carries by Route (Nov 2007 through Dec 2008) /24/08 11/24/06 12/24/06 1/24/07 2/24/07 3/24/07 4/24/07 5/24/07 6/24/07 7/24/07 8/24/07 9/24/07 10/24/07 11/24/07 12/24/07 1/24/08 2/24/08 3/24/08 4/24/08 5/24/08 6/24/08 7/24/08 8/24/08 $ / ton 10/24/08 11/24/08 12/24/08 Weeks Golf of Mexico to Japan Pacific NW to Asia Difference Fuente: Clarkson Research Services Limited 2008

25 Oct-08 Nov Aug-08 Sep Price of Corn (FOB) Jan-07 Feb-07 Mar-07 Apr-07 May-07 Jun-07 Jul-07 Aug-07 Sep-07 Oct-07 Nov-07 Dec-07 Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08 Jun-08 Jul-08 Fuente: World Bank, Pink Sheets. Costo FOB de maíz amarillo en puerto del, EE.UU. Golfo Price of Coal (FOB) Nov-08 Jan-07 Feb-07 Mar-07 Apr-07 May-07 Jun-07 Jul-07 Aug-07 Sep-07 Oct-07 Nov-07 Dec-07 Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08 Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Fuente: World Bank, Pink Sheets Costo. FOB de carbón australiano en puerto de Newcastle Price per Metric Ton ($) Price per Metric Ton ($) Oct-08 Nov Aug-08 Sep Price of Copper Jan-07 Feb-07 Mar-07 Apr-07 May-07 Jun-07 Jul-07 Aug-07 Sep-07 Oct-07 Nov-07 Dec-07 Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08 Jun-08 Jul-08 Fuente: World Bank, Pink Sheets. Costo del metal de cobre grado (incluye A cátodos y cables ) Price of Steel Bars (FOB) Nov-08 Jan-07 Feb-07 Mar-07 Apr-07 May-07 Jun-07 Jul-07 Aug-07 Sep-07 Oct-07 Nov-07 Dec-07 Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08 Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Fuente: World Bank, Pink Sheets. Costo FOB de barras de acero (steel rebar ) en Japón. Price per Metric Ton ($) Price per Metric Ton ($)

26 PC/UMS Tonnage Projections PC/UMS Tonnage Projections PCUMS Tonnage Projections Million tons Historical Projections

27 Canal Performance Indicators Canal Expansion Program

28 Panama Canal Expansion Program Objectives Maintain Canal competitiveness as well as the value of the route Increase capacity and allow the transit of larger ships Reduce water consumption Improve safety and efficiency Sustain tonnage and profitability growth

29 Canal Expansion Program Components Deepening of Pacific and Atlantic entrance channels Deepening and widening of the Gatun Lake navigation channel Construction of new access channel for Pacific Locks Construction of new Post Panamax Locks and water saving basins in the Atlantic and the Pacific Increase the maximum operating level of Gatun Lake

30 Dimensions of the Locks and Post-Panamax Ships Existing Locks Maximum Vessel: 4,400 TEUs m m (110 ) (110 ) ) ) m m (( m m (106 ) (106 ) m m (39.5 ) (39.5 ) ks c o gl n i t s ) Exi.1 mm (( ) m m (180 ) (180 ) 00 )) ((11,,2200 m m m (42 ) m m (160 ) (160 ) s ock L New m m ) 0000 ) ((11,, m (60 ) m m (50 ) (50 ) 6 New Locks Maximum Vessel: 12,600 TEUs

31 Atlantic Entrance Deepening & Widening Volume: 14 M m 3 Bid scheduled for: December 31, 2008 width: 225m (740 ) 7

32 Post-Panamax Locks Atlantic Atlantic Ocean Ocean Atlantic and Pacific Locks (30 M m3 Dry Excavation) 1 Contract Gatun Gatun Locks Locks New New Locks Locks Gatun Gatun Dam Dam 8 Gatun Gatun Lake Lake

33 Atlantic Locks West Lane East Lane New Lane 9

34 Pacific Locks New Lane West Lane East Lane 10

35 North Access Channel to New Pacific Locks 46M m3 of Dry Excavation - 4 Contracts PAC 1 PAC 3 PAC 4 PAC 2 PAC 1 PAC 3 PAC 2 New Locks Elevation in Meters PAC 4

36 Post-Panamax Water Saving Bassins Locks Operation Basin 1 Basin 2 Basin 3 With the reutilization water basins the new Locks will use 7% less water than the existing Locks Water Utilization New Locks Existing Locks 12

37 Pacific Entrance Deepening and Widening (9.1 M m3) RFP issued: August 30, Pre-Bid Conference: September 20, Site visit: September 19, Bid Opening: March 14, Awarded: April 01, Amount: $177,500, Company: Dredging International (Belgium) Start date: July, Companies Dredging International Boskalis International BV Jan De Nul N.V/Van Oord Dredging and Marine Contractors BV Arrived October 10,

38 Contractor s Equipment and the Pacific Entrance Dredging Works begins Cut & Suction Dredge Cutter of 1,766 kw Suction and Discharge of 900mm of diameter Drilling & Blasting Barge of 10 Towers Vlanderen XIX Hopper Dredge Capacity: 5,200 m3 / 11,650m3 Cut & Suction Dredge Cutter of 8,160 hp / 6,000 Kw Suction and Discharge of 1,000mm of diameter 14

39 Locks Design-Build Project Procurement Schedule Issue Draft RFP 21-DEC-07 Issue RFQ 27-AUG-07 Information Meeting 13-SEP-07 SOQ Due 15-NOV-07 Short-List Selection 14-DEC-07 One-on-One Meetings with Consortia 29-JAN-08 Pre-Bid Conference 26-MAR-08 Final RFP Issued 18-APR-08 Designation of the Technical Evaluation Committee New date Last Individual Meeting with Consortia 17-DIC-08 Bid Proposal Due In 3-MAR-09 Contract Award JUNE 2009 AGO SEP OCT NOV DIC ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AGO SEP OCT NOV DIC ENE FEB MAR APR MAY months 15

40 Prequalified Consortia Consortio Members Designers Gate Frabricators ACS Servicios, Comunicaciones y Energía, S.L. Líder Sener Ingeniería y Sistemas C.A.N.A.L. Acciona Infraestructuras, S.A. Fomento de Construcciones y Contratas, S.A. Hochtief Construction AG Haskoning Nederland BV Mott Macdonald Limited Hochtief Consult ACS Servicios, Comunicaciones y Energía, S.L. Constructoras ICA S.A. de C.V. Bouygues Travaux Publics Líder Bilfinger Berger Atlántico- Pacífico de Panamá VINCI Construction Grands Projets Construcoes e Comercio Camargo Correa S.A. Construtora Andrade Gutierrez S.A. Construtora Queiroz Galvao S.A. AECOM Líder ALSTOM Hydro Energia Brasil ALSTOM Hydro Energia Brasil BARDELLA Ind. Mecánicas Bechtel, Taisei, Mitsubishi Bechtel Internacional, Inc. Líder Taisei Corporation Bechtel Internacional, Inc. Líder Wuchang Shipyard Corporation Mitsubishi Corporation Grupo Unidos por el Canal Sacyr Vallehermoso S.A. Líder Impregilo S.p.A. Jan de Nul n.v. Montgomery Watson Harza (MWH) Líder IV-Groep Tetra Tech Heerema Fabrication Group Constructora Urbana, S.A.

41 Expansion Program Financing Structure Multilateral Agencies European Investment Bank (EIB) Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC) Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) International Finance Corporation (IFC) Corporación Andina de Fomento (CAF) Amount $ 500 million $ 800 million $ 400 million $ 300 million $ 300 million

42 Terms and Conditions of the Proposal Amount up to (millions) Tenor /Grace (years) Fees range Commitment Fee Initial Commission Agency Commission EIB JBIC IADB IFC CAF Commercial Banks with NEXI guarantee $500 $800 $400 $400 $400 $400 20/10 20/10 20/10 20/10 20/10 20/ % (Fixed) L + 48 bps Not Applicable Not Applicable L + 75 bps As of October 8, Libor 6M = % L+ 120 bps L+ 135 bps L+ 140 bps (3) 6.35% (Fixed) L+ ( ) bps 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% 0.40% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.85% 0.02%

43 EXPANSION PROGRAM S PROGRESS COMUNICATION 19

44 Canal Performance Indicators Canal Expansion Program Impact and Repercussions of The New Locks In Panama Trade Patterns

45 Dimensions of the Locks and Post-Panamax Ships Existing Locks Maximum Vessel: 4,400 TEUs m m (110 ) (110 ) ) ) m m (( m m (106 ) (106 ) m m (39.5 ) (39.5 ) ks c o gl n i t s ) Exi.1 mm (( ) m m (180 ) (180 ) 00 )) ((11,,2200 m m m (42 ) m m (160 ) (160 ) s ock L New m m ) 0000 ) ((11,, m (60 ) m m (50 ) (50 ) 21 New Locks Maximum Vessel: 12,600 TEUs

46 U.S. Port Working Depths Depths at Mean Low Water (MLW) U.S. East Coast MLW Boston 38 New York / New Jersey 43 Philadelphia 38 Baltimore 40 Norfolk 48 Wilmington 42 Charleston 47 Savannah 42 Jacksonville 38 Miami 39 U.S. Gulf MLW Houston 40 New Orleans 35 Tampa 43 U.S. West Coast MLW Los Angeles / Long Beach 50 Oakland 50 Portland 35 Seattle / Tacoma 50 22

47 NS Intermodal Network Norfolk Southern System Intermodal Terminal Market Expansions thru 2011 New Facilities/Markets IM Port Terminal 23 TCS Terminals

48 NS Is Currently Engaged in Over $3 billion in Network improvements Targeting Intermodal Meridian Speedway: Complete 2010 Heartland Corridor: Complete 2010 Patriot Corridor: Complete 2010* Crescent Corridor: Completion tbd $300mm $250mm $140mm $2.4bb *Still under review by STB 24

49 NS Core Intermodal Network 4 Corridor Strategy Norfolk Southern System NS Intermodal Routes Clearance Restrictions 25

50 Dry Bulk Carriers Additional Cargo Capacity in the Expanded Panama Canal Concept Existing Canal Typical Panamax vessel Maximum size Expanded Canal Size Range for Dry Bulkers carrying Coal in the expanded canal Vessel data: Cargo carrying Capacity ( tons) 80, , , , , , , , ,000 Utilization rate via the Panama Canal 78% 98% 78% 76% 74% Cargo (Metric Tons) 62, , , , ,900 Length (meters) Beam (meters) Salt Water Draft (meters) Panama Canal Restrictions: Length (meters) Beam (meters) Tropical Fresh Water Draft (meters) Utilization rate via the Panama Canal without restrictions 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Cargo without restrictions (Metric Tons) 80, , , , ,300 26

51 Tankers Additional Cargo Capacity in the Expanded Panama Canal Existing Canal Tanker Vessel with Maximum Dimensions Expanded Canal Size Range for Tanker Vessels in Expanded Canal Vessel Data Aframax Suezmax VLCC Total Cargo Capacity of vessel 88, , ,999 > 200,000 Utilization percentage of vessel through the Canal 70.0% 94.7% 89.6% 73.9% Cargo in metric tons 64, , , ,205 LOA (m) Beam (m) Fresh water draft (m) Dimensions allowed by the Panama Canal LOA (m) Beam (m) Fresh water draft (m) Unrestricted vessel utilization percentage 100% 100% 100% 100% Cargo carrying capacity with maximum draft of 15.2 m 88, , , ,064 Additional cargo allowed with expanded Canal (in MT) 23,913 27

52 CO 2 Footprints per TEU: Container Route Shanghai - New York Panamax Post-Panamax 8000 TEU Post-Panamax 8700 TEU CO2 Emissions Panama Canal Landbridge Cape Horn Cape of Good Hope Suez Canal 28

53 CO 2 Footprints per MT: Tanker Route Esmeraldas, Ecuador Houston, U.S CO2 Emissions in MT Panamax Aframax Suezmax Panama Canal Cape Horn Cape of Good Hope Suez Canal 29

54 International Ports Connected through the Panama Canal every Week Osaka Nagoya Shanghai Kwangyang Qingdao Pusan Tokyo Keelung Shimizu Yantian Yokohama Hong Kong Kobe Colombo Chabang Hakata Kaohsiung Singapore Brisbane Sydney Tanjung Priok Doniambo Melbourne Source: ACP and ComPairData, 2007 Seattle Oakland Los Angeles Long Beach Manzanillo (Mx) Auckland Rotterdam Bremerhaven Tilbury Felixstowe Hamburg Halifax Thamesport Dunkerque NJ/NY Boston Zeebrugge Wilmington Le Havre Newport News Antwerp Charleston Baltimore Port Said.. Miami Savannah New Orleans Everglades Marseilles Colon Veracruz Kingston Manzanillo La Spezia Puerto Limón Cartagena Maracaibo Balboa La Guaira Guanta Buenaventura Puerto Cabello Manta Guayaquil Callao Arica Santos Iquique Paranagua Coquimbo Itajai Antofagasta Valparaíso San Antonio San Vicente Tahiti Transit the Canal Feeder services that 30 don t transit the Canal

55 Manzanillo International Terminal (MIT) Colon Container Terminal Panama Ports Company Cristobal Panama Ports Company - Balboa Port Development in Panama 31

56 1996: 235 Thousands TEUs 2008(e): 4.7 Millions TEUs 32 Source: Panama Maritime Authority (AMP).

57 Panamax Cranes PPX Total PPC-Balboa PPC-CRI CCT MIT

58 Inventory of gantry cranes (Ship-to-Shore gantry cranes) in Latin America and the Caribbean 10 - Bahamas 6 Puerto Rico 33 - Mexico 4 - Cuba 1 - Aruba 1 - Haiti 2 - Guatemala 7 Dominican Rep Jamaica 2 - Honduras 4 Trinidad & Tobbago 1 - Nicaragua 1 Costa Rica 5 French Antilles 4 - Colombia 3 - Guadeloupe 1 - Ecuador 50 Panama (21%) 187 LA & the Caribbean 237 Total 8 - Chile Source: Containerization International Yearbook Uruguay 18 - Argentina 31 - Brazil 34

59 Forecast 2010: 6.6 millions TEUs 2015: 8.4 millions TEUs 35 Source: Panama Maritime Authority (AMP).

60 PSA Panama International Terminal ½ million TEUs capacity USD$ 70 million investment 20 yr concession agreement 36

61 NEW PORT FACILITY: FARFAN LOCATION? 37

62 Population Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, October 2007

63 Map of insufficiencies in transportation and logistics in Latin America and the Caribbean Demand dispersion Insufficiency in cargo requirements in density and frequency Deficient transportation infrastructure Investments difficult to justify Topographical problems Congestion or shortage at borders Population dispersion Shipping services restrictions Waterway insufficiencies Deficiencies in connectivity among production and consumption centers This is a graphic approximation Sources: R. J. Sánchez, G. Wilmsmeier, CEPAL, DRNI, ACP

64 Short Sea Shipping Network POST-PANAMAX MOVEMENT MANZANILLO LAZARO CARDENAS ACAPULCO SALINACRUZ SAN JOSE PUERTO QUETZAL ACAJUTLA LA LIBERTAD CORINTO PUERTO SANDINO PUNTARENAS CALDERA GOLFITO PUERTO ARMUELLES BALBOA BUENAVENTURA TUMACO ESMERALDAS GUAYAQUIL PAITA CALLAO ANTOFAGASTA VENTANAS VALPARAISO SAN ANTONIO TALCAHUANO CONNECTING PORTS TAMPICO VERACRUZ COATZACUALCOS BELICE CITY PUERTO CORTES PUERTO CASTILLA PUERTO CABEZAS EL BLUFF PUERTO LIMON CHIRIQUI BRANDE CRISTOBAL-MIT-EVERGREEN CARTAGENA BARRANQUILLA PUERTO BOLIVAR PUERTO CABELLO LA GUAIRA SUAP / PCEM RECIFE VITORIA TUBARAU RIO DE JANEIRO SEPETIBA SANTOS PARANAGUA MONTEVIDEO BUENOS AIRES BAHIA BLANCA

65 Panama key indicators Indicator e 2009f 2010f Real GDP (% change, annual rate) Inflation rate (% change, annual rate) Unemployment rate (As % of Economically active population) Fiscal surplus (or deficit) (Non Financial Public Sector as % of GDP) Total public debt (As % of GDP) Source: ACP with data of Indesa. The Non-Financial Public Sector (NFPS) had a fiscal surplus in 2006 and In the following years, the NFPS surplus is expected to be between 1.3% and 4.1 %, which will reduce the public debt as percentage of GDP. % of GDP Fiscal Surplus (As pecentage of GDP) e 2009f 2010f % of GDP Public Debt (As perentage of GDP) e 2009f 2010f Source: ACP with data of Indesa. Source: ACP with data of Indesa.

66 Transport and logistics cluster indicators Indicator Canal Revenues (% change, annual rate) Trans-shipment ports TEU's (% change, annual rate) Railway TEU's (% change, annual rate) Colon Free Trade Zone Re-exports (Thousands of dollars) (% change, annual rate) Passenger air hub Tourist and transiting passenger (% change, annual rate) International air cargo Air cargo (% change, annual rate) , , , , % 7.1% 15.0% 13.9% 16.2% 25.8% 12.5% 1,591,472 1,672,315 1,991,659 2,428,836 2,774,579 3,029,872 4,074, % 5.1% 19.1% 22.0% 14.2% 9.2% 34.5% 3,709 28,240 41,550 60, , , , % 47.1% 45.3% 136.8% 17.7% 80.1% 5, , , , , , , % -10.6% -5.6% 19.8% 21.8% 15.0% 11.2% 2,103,861 1,938,933 2,077,657 2,364,756 2,710,857 3,164,582 3,764, % -7.8% 7.2% 13.8% 14.6% 16.7% 19.0% 74,370 84,361 83,488 92, ,063 79,648 93, % 13.4% -1.0% 11.2% 7.8% -20.4% 17.6% Source: ACP with data of Contraloría General de la República and Dirección Nacional de Aeronáutica Civil.

67 Panama Transport & Logistic Cluster Canal Museum TOUR GUIDES SPORTS FISHING RESTAURANTS HOTELS Tourism Installations TRADE Maritime Training and Development SCHOOLS TRAINING UNIVERSITIES SHIP MAINTENANCE AND REPAIR BOARD OF INSPECTORS DREDGING INSPECTION RELATED AND COMPLEMENTARY SERVICES FLOATING CRANES INDUSTRIAL SERVICES PILOTS URBAN TRANSPORTATION TOURISM ACP TUGBOATS AND LAUNCHES HYDROGRAPHY TRAFFIC CONTROL AIRPORTS OVERLAND TRANSPORTATION SHIPPING AGENCIES PORTS CANAL INTEROCEANIC TRANSIT WATERSHED BUNKERING SHIPFITTERS PUBLIC SERVICES DATABASE ENERGY WATER REFRIGERATION WAREHOUSING SERVICES RAILROAD LOGISTICS TELECOMMUNICATIONS UNIONS LAWYERS COMMUNICATION SERVICES SPECIAL REGULATORY ZONES FINANCIAL SERVICES INTERNATIONAL UNIONS MARITIME CHAMBER OPTIC FIBER LABOR UNIONS BANKING INSURANCE Source: ACP with information of the Panama Canal Impact.

68 Project Transport and Logistics Cluster Investment Source: ACP with information of Capital Financiero, La Prensa and Panama Commerce Chamber. US$ (Millions) Start date End date Cluster: TRANSPORT AND LOGISTICS 9,762 Canal expansion 5, Trans-shipment Ports and railway 2,391 Panama Port Company terminal (Balboa and Cristobal) 1, Manzanillo International Terminal Colon Container Terminal 450 Rodman container terminal (Singapur -PSA Internacional) 100 Farfán (Palo ) Seco Container Terminal 600 Panama Canal Railway Company Cruiseship terminal 18 Colón () 2000 Home Port cruiseship terminal 14 Farfan terminal for ship chandlering and others services Panama-Pacific Economic Area (Howard) 477 Howard Development Master Plan Caterpillar and Hewlett Packard regional distribution and logistic center 72 Bunker terminal-colon Oil and Services, S.A. (COASSA) 22 Passenger and cargo air hub 652 COPA passenger and cargo air hub Tocumen air port Colon Free Trade Zone (Infrastructure, warehousing, etc.) Pipeline expansion (Pumping Capability: Atlantic to Pacific ) 150 Other projects in Canal area 770 Real estate in Canal area 700 Gehry Museum 70

69 Economic Impact of the Panama Canal Expansion Cluster Exports In Millions of Dollars at 2006 prices Investment In Millions of Dollars at 2006 prices 20,000 18,000 16,000 Without Expansion With Expansion 6,000 5,500 5,000 Without Expansion With Expansion 14,000 4,500 12,000 4,000 10,000 3,500 8,000 3,000 6,000 2,500 4, , Years Years Gross Domestic Product In Millions of Dollars at 2006 prices 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 Without Expansion With Expansion Years Unemployment Rate Percentages Without Expansion With Expansion Years Source: ACP.

70 Main Logistics Hubs ROTTERDAM SHANGHAI SHENZHEN BUSAN HONG KONG LA/LB NY/NJ HAMPTON RDS. SAVANNAH FREEPORT KINGSTON ALGECIRAS HAMBURG DUBAI PANAMA SINGAPORE

71 Thank You! Rodolfo Sabonge Vice president, Market Research and Analysis