Update on the Panama Canal Expansion. Rodolfo Sabonge Vicepresident, Market Research and Analysis Autoridad del Canal de Panamá January 19, 2012

Transcription

1 Update on the Panama Canal Expansion Rodolfo Sabonge Vicepresident, Market Research and Analysis Autoridad del Canal de Panamá January 19, 2012

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3 FY 2011 Canal Traffic Indicators Update on the Expansion Program (Video Clip) Potential Impact/Importance of the Expansion 3

4 (E) Transits Total Tonnage(PCUMS) 35,000 30,000 Transits vs. Panama Canal/UMS Tonnage FY 1915 FY 2011 Average PC/UMS Tonnage for Commercial Transits , , ,000 14, , , Fiscal Year

5 Main Routes - FY 2011 Total (long tons) M East Coast US -- Asia 87.3M West Coast South America East Coast US 26.2M West Coast South America -- Europe 15.2M West Coast US Europe 9.9M West Coast Central America East Coast US 11.7M

6 Tonnage by Market Segments FY 2010 FY 2011 Container Dry Bulk Vehicle Carrier Tanker Refrigerated Passenger General Cargo Others FY2011 (e) FY PCUMS (in millions)

7 Liner Services Through The Panama Canal Tokyo Qingdao Pyongtaek Yokoham Busan a Shanghai Taipe Ningbo Yantian i Hong Kong Kaohsiung Chiwan Vancouver Seattle Oakland New York Norfolk Los Angeles Charleston Ensenad Mobile Savannah a Houston Jacksonvill e Miami Manzanillo Lázaro Kingston San Juan Cardenas P. Pto. Quetzal PR P. Caucedo Cabello Cartagena Cristobal Manzanillo Port of Spain Balboa Hamburg Tilbury Rotterdam Antwerp Dunkirk Le Marin Havre Bilbao La Spezia Naples Valencia Gioia Tauro Tangier Dubai Manta Guayaqu il Sidney Melbourne Papeete Lautoka Noumea Tauranga Auckland Napier Timaru Port Chalmers Calla o Ilo Iquique Mejillones Antofagast a San Antonio Trade Route Number of Services Yearly Capacity Number of Vessels Average Vessel Size Asia - USEC 13 3,008, ,440 Pendulum 3 747, ,784 WCSA - Europe 8 1,097, ,900 Asia - Caribbean 1 239, ,588 WCSA - Caribbean 1 97, ,405 WCSA - USEC 3 378, ,423 Oceania - USEC Europe 2 209, ,654 USWC - Europe 2 283, ,255 USWC - ECSA 1 100, ,918 Source: Compair Data, January 2011

8 Port Development in Panama 1996: 235K TEUs 2010: 5.59M TEUs 2011: 6.58M TEUs 2015: 8.4M TEUs(P) Panama Ports Company Cristobal Colon Container Terminal Manzanillo International Terminal (MIT) Panama Ports Company - Balboa

9 Tonnage by Market Segments FY 2010 FY 2011 Container Dry Bulk Vehicle Carrier Tanker Refrigerated Passenger General Cargo Others FY2011 (e) FY PCUMS (in millions)

10 Mississippi River Watershed BUILDING STRONG

11 Grain Cargo Tonnage Source: ACP Data Warehouse Years are fiscal: October through September BUILDING STRONG

12 Soybean and corn (Metric Tons) Source:ACP Data Warehouse BUILDING STRONG

13 FY 2011 Canal Traffic Indicators Update on the Expansion Program (Clip) 13

14 Panama Canal Expansion Program Objectives Maintain Canal competitiveness as well as the value of the route Increase capacity and allow the transit of larger ships Reduce water consumption Improve safety and efficiency Sustain tonnage and profitability growth

15 Canal Expansion Program Components Deepening of Pacific and Atlantic entrance channels Deepening and widening of the Gatun Lake navigation channel Construction of new access channel for Pacific Locks Construction of new Post Panamax Locks and water saving basins in the Atlantic and the Pacific Increase the maximum operating level of Gatun Lake

16 ONE OF A KIND EVENT 25 coming Visionary 30 One Speakers Idea soon Leaders

17 FY 2011 Canal Traffic Indicators Update on the Expansion Program (Clip) Potential Impact/Importance of the Expansion 17

18 GAME CHANGER? The Panama Canal

19 Locks Chamber and Vessel Size 33.5 m (110 ) Existing locks' maximum vessel size: 4,400 TEU 32.3 m (106 ) 12.4 m (39.5 ) 55 m (180 ) 12.8 m (42 ) 49 m (160 ) 18.3 m (60 ) 15.2 m (50 ) New locks' maximum vessel size: 12,600

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22 MAERSK Line looks set to limit its fleet of 18,000 teu containerships to 20 units, but has more than a month to decide whether to exercise its option to order 10 more. The deadline on the option for the final tranche expires at the end of February, but Maersk has already said it does not expect to convert the option into an order. The decision is likely to be confirmed when AP Moller-Maersk publishes its full-year results on February 27. Speculation about Maersk s intentions was fuelled by comments in the German media that appeared to suggest that it had cancelled the order for the second series of 10, placed last summer. However, Maersk says it will take delivery of all 20 Triple-E ships ordered last year at a cost of $190m each. Maersk announced its $1.9bn order for 10 ships to be built by Daewoo Shipbuilding and Marine Engineering almost a year ago, along with options for two more series of 10. At 400 m long and with a beam of 59 m, they will be the largest ships in service. Deliveries will start in

23 Main Global Container Transportation Flows Southeast Asia South Asia East Asia Eastbound Route POSTPANAMAX Westbound Route Landbridge PANAMAX Panama Route 23

24 Main Global Container Transportation Flows Southeast Asia South Asia East Asia Eastbound Route POSTPANAMAX Westbound Route Landbridge POSTPANAMAX Panama Route 24

25 2010 World Container Flow TRANS-ATLANTIC 6 million TEU ASIA-EUROPE 17 million TEU TRANS-PACIFIC 21 million TEU OTHER TRADES North-South : 24 million TEU Intra-Regional: 16 million TEU INTRA-ASIA 56 million TEU (including Australia, Indian Subcontinent and Middle East) Worldwide: 140m TEU in 2010

26 $ vs TT: Key is Time Sensitivity Value Trade Off Incremental Cost Transit Time Diff. [($Xw+$Yw) - ($Xe+$Ye)] [(TTow+TTi) - (TToe+Tti)] 7 days $YYY 2 days $YYY 2 days $YYY 5 days $YYY Chicago Columbus South China 12 days, $XXX Long Beach 6 days $YYY Memphis 3 days $YYY Atlanta 2 days $YYY Norfolk 5 days $YYY 28 Days,$XXX

27 Route Cost Elements

28 Unit Route Cost Elements

29 Local drayage Rail Truck 11 regions in US 11 centroids Route port to centroid US Inland transportation costs

30 An expanded generalized cost concept Generalized cost = Maritime cost Port cost Inland cost Direct cost of transportation + Cost of time + Frequency cost + Cost of reliability Pipeline inventory Safety stock Supply variations Demand variations

31 Market share computation Método: Nested Logit (Mc Fadden, Nobel 2000)

32 Conventional Direct Central Atlantic North Atlantic South Atlantic / Gulf Transshipment Circum-Equatorial Central Atlantic North Atlantic Central Atlantic North Atlantic South Atlantic / Gulf South Atlantic / Gulf Caribbean Transshipment Triangle 32

33 Emerging Global Maritime Freight Transport System Port Traffic, TEU (2010)

34 2010 Piracy at Sea

35 Container Fleet Capacity and Vessel Size Composition 2000 (4.79 millionteu) 2011 (14.9 million TEU) 2016 (19.4 million TEU) 15% P.Pmax 85% Pmax and less 44.4% Total P.Pmax % 55.6% Pmax and less 54.6% Total P.Pmax 17.6% 37% 45.4% Pmax and less 0-4,000+ teu 4,000-6,000+ teu 0-5,000 teu 5-10,000 teu 10,000+ teu 0-5,000 teu 5-10,000 teu 10,000+ teu 371 Panamax 134 Post Panamax 961 Panamax 889 Post Panamax 1,021 Panamax 1,325 Post Panamax Fuente: Clarkson s Research Studies-julio 2011

36 Carrier Operating Margins 1H/2011: Top-20 Ocean Carrier Operating Profit and Margins

37 OOIL Maersk NOL Source: Drewry FSI, Sept 2011 Wan Hai Evergreen CSCL MOL Grp K Line Grp NYK Grp Hapag-Lloyd CMA CGM Zim CSAV Cosco Yang Ming HMM Hanjin Horizon Z-score = 1.2T T T T T5 T1 = (Cur Assets-Cur Z-Score Liabilities) / Total Assets T2 = Retained Earnings / Total Assets T3 = Annual Earnings B4 Int & Tax / Total Assets T4 = Book Value of Equity / Total Liabilities T5 = Annual Sales / Total Assets Financial Health Check Healthy Zone Caution Zone Distress Zone 0.5 0

38 Demand/Supply Forecast 38

39 Clean Fuel > High Price CO 2 emission trading from : SO x -limits for fuel apply globally. MGO demands a premium > 50% of Heavy Fuel Oil Price of Heavy Fuel Oil {HFO} will continue to rise in the long run (2.5% pa)

40 Why Slow Steaming? Slow Steaming = more ships + boxes = $$$$$

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42 U.S. Soybean Production and Exports and Trend to 2021 U.S. Likely to be Producing 3.7 Billion Bushels in 2021, Exports Likely Reach 2.5 Billion Bushels (68%) BUILDING STRONG

43 The Impact of Canal Expansion on Dry Bulks 1. The USG-Asia grain trade will become more competitive through the use of larger vessels. 2. Potential for increased trade of coal to Asia/China.

44 Granos Grain Escenario Base Competitive Analysis for Dry Bulks Days Fuel Charter rate Vessel: 55,000 dwt - 90% Utilization (for Panamá) $US Dollar per ton Ports Canal Cargo Handling Inland Total Indice de Competiti vidad Grain Belt - Asia - Panama Canal Grain Belt - Asia - Intermodal (PNW) Grain Belt - Asia - Suez Canal Grain Belt - Asia - C. G. H Grain Belt - Asia - C. H Coal Carbón Escenario Mercado de buques en alza y aumento en peajes Aumento Escenario en Base peajes de 50% Vessel: 60,000 dwt - 75% Utilization (for Panama) $US Dollar per ton Indice de Grain Belt - Asia - Panama Canal Charter Cargo Days Fuel Ports Canal Total Competiti Grain Belt - Asia - Intermodal (PNW) rate Handling vidad Grain Belt - Asia - Suez Canal Norfolk to Nagoya - C. G. H Grain Norfolk Belt to Nagoya - Asia - C. - C. G. H. H Grain Norfolk Belt to Nagoya - Asia - C. - Panama H Norfolk to Nagoya - Suez Escenario Mercado de buques en baja y aumento en peajes Aumento en peajes de 50% Grain Santa Belt Marta - Asia / Tocopilla - Panama - C. Canal H Santa Marta / Tocopilla - Panamá Grain Belt - Asia - Intermodal (PNW) Grain Belt - Asia - Suez Canal Vancouver to Rotterdam - C. H Grain Vancouver Belt - to Asia Rotterdam - C. G. H. - Panama Grain Belt - Asia - C. H Escenario Mercado de buques en alza y aumento en peajes Aumento en peajes de 50% Norfolk to Nagoya - C. G. H

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46 Dry Bulk Fleet Capacity (Millions DWT) Capacity 2011 New Orders Capacity 2013 Capesize (>106) 22.3, 39% Up to Panamax (<106) % Capesize (>106) % Up to Panamax (>106) % Capesize (>106) % Up to Panamax (<106) % Size Range 2011 Orders ( ) 2015 E* Capacity in Millions of DWT Up to Panamax (10-90K DWT) Capesize (>90K DWT) Total * Total 2015 estimated,not including scrapping Source: Clarksons Research Studies, June

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48 Competitive Analysis Tankers Oil Tankers Vessel 40,000 DWT - 90% Utilization (for Panamá) US$ Dólares por Tonelada Route Days Fuel Charter Cargo Competitive Ports Canal Inland Total Rate Handling Index Houston / Quintero - C.H Houston / Quintero - Panama Houston / Quintero - Panama Pipeline

49 Capacity 2011 Tanker Fleet Capacity (Millions DWT) Orderbook Capacity 2015 VLCC % Suezmax % Up to Panamax % Aframax % VLCC % Up to Panamax % Aframax % Suezmax % VLCC % Suezmax % Up to Panamax % Aframax % Vessel Size Range 2011 Orderbook ( ) Capacity in Million DWT 2015 E * Up to Panamax (<106') Aframax (106' - 140') Suezmax (140' - 160') VLCC (> 160') Total * Total 2015 estimate does not include demolitions Source: Clarkson Research Ltd, 2011

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51 The Impact of Canal Expansion on Liquid Bulks 1. Canal expansion will make Ecuador USG crude shipments more competitive vs alternative sources (e.g., ex Nigeria).. 2. The expanded Canal will be the first route choice for LNG trades between Trinidad-Chile and Peru-USG and for Shale Gas exports coming out of the U.S. destined to Asia.

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55 Tonnage by Market Segments FY 2010 FY 2011 Container Dry Bulk Vehicle Carrier Tanker Refrigerated Passenger FY2011 (e) General Cargo Others Oasis of the Seas FY PCUMS (in millions)

56 The Future of Market Segments Panama Canal Container Container Break Bulk Dry Bulk Vehicle Carriers Ro-Ro s Tankers Chemical Carriers LPG LNG Refrigerated Vessels Cruise General Cargo Others

57 Value-Added Components of Panama s Transportation and Logistics Cluster 57

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60 Continuing negotiations between GUPC and Labor Unions,

61 Average Annual GDP Growth Rates for Latin America (%chg) -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% Panama Surinam Trinidad & Tobago Peru R. Dominicana Costa Rica Ecuador Argentina Honduras Colombia Belice Bolivia Chile Brazil Paraguay Uruguay Guatemala Venezuela Nicaragua El Salvador Mexico Jamaica Haiti Source: IMF, INDESA

62 Panama s Real GDP Growth % 10.1% 10.3% 8.5% 7.5% 3.2% E Source: Contraloría General de la República, INDESA

63 FDI (millions $US) Foreign investment has also been strong 3,000 Foreign Direct Investment: (millions of US$ and % of GDP) 20.00% $2, % 2,500 2,000 15% $1,777 $2,196 $1,773 $2, % 14.00% 12.00% 1,500 1,000 9% 10% 7% 9% 10.00% 8.00% 6.00% % 2.00% % Source: Contraloría General de la República, INDESA

64 GOVERNMENT INVESTMENT PROGRAM ( ) (in millions) 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 2,403 3,205 2,991 2,679 2, Source: ACP, MEF

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