Panama Canal Expansion Antecedents

Transcription

1 Panama Canal Expansion Antecedents May 1879: Baron Godin de Lepinay Canal Lock proposal at the International Congress for Study of an Interoceanic Canal ignored. January 1906: Report of the Consulting Engineers for the Panama Canal recommended a sea level canal in Panama/Chief Engineer John Stevens backed the minority view for a lock type or high level lake canal June 1906: By a vote of 36-31, approved a lock type. Canal engineers immediately began work utilizing a design that was essentially the same in its key elements as the de Lepinay plan proposed 27 years earlier. 1908: Decision to enlarge locks from 95 feet to 110 feet to accommodate largest battleship Pennsylvania (98 feet); largest commercial vessel being built, Titanic, had beam of only 94 feet. Final design became 110 X 1000 X Panama Canal Third Locks Project; Montana class battleships Angle deck carriers Seal level canal studies Treaty requirements to study seal level canal tripartite study Commercial developments/explosion in global trade after 1950/growth in ship sie and ship specialization/the container revolution/by mid 1990 s container ships were being built to big for the canal 1997 discssion with alberto aleman Canal Capacity Office opened in 1997 Master Plan completed 2005 Concluded that Canal expansion was feasible & necessary

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3 The Panama Canal 1914

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5 The Container Revolution -April 26, 1956 SS Ideal-X, 524 ft. long; 58 containers MV Emma Maersk, 1302 ft. long 13,800 containers 5

6 Containerization dramatically lowered transportation costs and greatly reduced the time to market. By itself it did not create the 21 st century global economy but it was a core building block it started the revolution and drove it forward. Other factors of course played a role GATT, the Staggers Act, double stack trains, the computer, internet, large jet planes, the opening of China and the breakup of the Soviet Union. But it was containerization that allowed the creation of global supply chains, brought logistics into the commercial vocabulary, set the stage for just in time manufacturing which significantly lowered production costs by reducing the need for large inventories, and allowed globalized division of labor. 7

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13 Tonnage by Market Segments FY 2010 FY 2011 Container Dry Bulk Vehicle Carrier Tanker Refrigerated Passenger General Cargo Others FY2011 FY PCUMS (in millions)

14 Design & Construction of the Locks Lock Chamber Length: 427 m Width: 55 m Depth: 18.3 m LOA: Beam: Draft: Vessel size 366 m 49 m 15.2 m 15

15 Atlantic Entrance - New Locks

16 Atlantic Locks Area

17 Heavy Rainfall at Atlantic Locks Excavation 24 Inches in 48 Hours (December 2010)

18 Atlantic Locks Excavation-Aerial View Looking North

19 Atlantic Locks Construction

20 Atlantic Locks Construction

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22 Pacific Entrance - New Locks

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24 Pacific 1939 Excavation (North End)

25 Pacific Locks Construction

26 Pacific Locks Construction

27 Pacific Aerial View Looking North (Finished Concept)

28 Dimensions of Locks and New-Panamax Vessels Existing Locks Max Vessel: 4,400 TEU s 33.5 m (110 ) 32.3 m (106 ) 55 m (180 ) 12.4 m (39.5 ) 12.8 m (42 ) Beam 49 m (160 ) 18.3 m (60 ) New Locks Max Vessel: 12,600 TEU s

29 The expansion will extend the Canal s area of influence

30 Panama provides easy access to consumers located in Latin America, the Caribbean, North America, Asia and Europe

31 Assumptions $400/MT bunker Canal tolls based on 2011 proposal Current ship charter rates Inland move by rail For a typical Asia-USEC voyage, shifting to an 8000 TEU vessel expands the market reach of the USEC ports 4000 TEU ship 8000 TEU ship 46%* 63%* Left of the black line = West Coast has the cost advantage Right of the black line = East Coast has the cost advantage *Share of the US population

32 Distance Comparison SHANGHAI 5699 miles LOS ANGELES NEW YORK 8566 miles PANAMA CANAL

33 Transit Time Shanghai New York All-Water Mini-Landbridge Time Savings days days 5 11 days

34 Estimated Market Shares Far East to USEC/Gulf Mini-Landbridge 65% 80% 30% 15% All-Water 35% 20% 70% 85%

35 Many Variables Cloud the Forecast Response of West Coast ports & railroads Shipper supply chain strategies Ocean carrier strategies including trans-shipment and relay services Importance of transit time and impact of slow steaming Fall-out from the Great Recession Shifting global production

36 Reported Channel Depths at Selected Ports Norfolk New York Charleston Houston Mobile Tampa Savannah Miami Jacksonville Source: Port Websites; CI; AAPA Seaports of the Americas; Norbridge Analysis

37 Tampa can accommodate most of the world s container, dry and liquid bulk fleets Percentage of active world fleet that has a max draft (-2ft under keel) less than or equal to the Port s channel depth

38 Transshipment Ports United States Tampa Freeport Mexico Kingston Caucedo Colon/MIT Cartagena South America 39

39 Port Development in Panama 1996: 235K TEUs 2010: 5.6 M TEUs 2011: 6.5 M TEUs 2015: 8.4 M TEUs (E) 2020: 12.4 M TEUs (E) Panama Ports Company Cristobal PSA Colon Container Terminal Manzanillo International Terminal (MIT) Panama Ports Company - Balboa

40 Tampa s hinterland market: 51% of Florida s total population 9 th -Largest economy in the U.S. GDP over $272 Billion Tampa-Orlando I-4 Corridor home to largest concentration of distribution centers in Florida Population 8.8 M Population 2.3 M 41 Population 6.3 M 41

41 Florida s Global Trading Partners 2010 Western Hemisphere C. America (13.1%) S. America (36.6%) Caribbean (9.5%) N. America (4.2%) Europe Asia Other Middle East Africa Oceania 42

42 Port of Tampa Largest, most diversified port in Florida $8B in economic impact/supports nearly 100,000 jobs Largest economic engine in West Florida Solid financial performance, even during economic downturn Encompasses 5,000 acres Approx. 40M tons cargo/year 44% of FL waterborne trade Energy products gateway of West/Central Florida-critical to economy Premier U.S. fertilizer port Large/diverse bulk and break bulk business Shipyard/ship repair center Top ten cruise homeport Carnival, RCI, HAL, NCL Expanding container/distribution center gateway Petroleum Phosphate Building Materials Cruise Containers 43

43 Container Terminal Expansion Currently 40 acres; expansion to 160 acres planned 4 container cranes; 2 more under consideration 43 foot deepwater channel/berths Plans to quadruple capacity; enough to handle all Cent. FL demand

44 Tampa Gateway Rail Project Joint TPA-CSX initiative Florida s only on-dock unit train terminal Scheduled for completion in

45 I-4 Connector Project New express highway access between Port and interstate system scheduled for completion summer 2013 $390 million construction cost Dedicated Truck Lane 46

46 O V E R V I E W Three large, distinct, complementary markets Proximity to expanded Panama Canal Balanced trade characterized by strong exports Expanding logistics gateways, distribution centers and industrial parks driving cargo density Extensive terminal facilities on deep water, with plans for additional expansion 47

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48 Transits: 1,015,656 Cargo: 8,810,136,335 LT