Port Everglades Master/Vision Plan Update Cruise and Liquid Bulk Charrette Meeting. June 18, 2009

Transcription

1 Port Everglades Master/Vision Plan Update Cruise and Liquid Bulk Charrette Meeting June 18,

2 The purpose of this presentation was to review the progress of the update to the 2006 Master/Vision Plan with the audience. The information contained herein is in draft form and was accompanied by a verbal description during the presentation and has not been approved by Broward County. Since the following slides are in draft form the information thereon is subject to change. 2

3 Progress to Date Working on Phase I Update Updating Element 1: Existing Conditions Assessment - Discussed at Tenant/Stakeholder Meeting Updating Element 2: Market Assessment Updating Element 3: Plan Development 3

4 Updating Element 2: Market Assessment Bermello, Ajamil & Partners - Cruise Martin & Associates - Containerized Cargo Purvin & Gertz - Liquid Bulk Sclar & Associates - Non-Containerized Cargo (For 20-year Design Horizon; 2009 to 2029) 4

5 Cruise Market Analysis for Port Everglades Prepared by: Bermello, Ajamil & Partners 5

6 Steady Expansion Conventional cruise passengers, Since 1995, worldwide passenger levels have tripled Sources: CLIA, PSA, B&A,

7 Global Growth Trends Constrained by ships (supply), not passengers (demand); Cruise lines rapidly expanding in several cruise regions; repeat clientele saturation of traditional ports and regions Non-US passengers are taking more cruises; Industry is controlled by handful of profitable operators; Industry outperforms others during recession by: shifting capacity from longer to short, closer-to-home, more affordable segments offer deep discounting shift of land based to cruise - perception of all-inclusive value 7

8 New Cruise Ship Introductions /12 AIDA 2,050 AII DA 2,050 AIDA 2,174 AIDA 2,174 Carnival 2,974 Carniv al 3,652 Celebrity 2,850 Carnival 3,652 Celebrity 2,850 Celebrity 2,850 Costa 2,260 Celebrity 2,850 HAL 2,100 Costa 2,260 Cunard 2,092 Costa 3,012 MSC 2,568 Costa 3,004 HAL 2,100 Disney 2,500 MSC 3,300 MSC 3,300 NCL 4,200 Oceania 1,260 Princess 3,100 RCI 5,400 MSC 2,550 Seabourn 450 P&O Cruises 3,100 Pearl 210 Oceania 1,260 MSC 2,550 RCI 3,643 Seabourn 450 P&O Cruises 3,076 AIDA 2,174 Pearl 210 ACL 104 RCI 5,400 Celebrity 2,850 Silverseas 540 Seabourn 450 Costa 3,012 Ponant 264 Disney 2,500 Ponant 264 MSC 2,550 Oceania 1, /6 (25,895) (23,836) (28,940) (18,448/14, 14,346) 346) 48 New Ships / 111,465 New Berths Sources: B&A and Seatrade,

9 Projected North American Berths Inclusive of estimated withdrawals from service through , , , ,013 Net North America n berth inventory anticipated to add an additional 112,000 to 220,000 berths by 2020 Source: B&A,

10 Projected North American Passengers 30,000,000 Passengers 25,000,000 20,000,000 15,000,000 10,000,000 5,000, M 2008 = 11.0 M 15.9 M 2020 = 15.7 M M 0 '95 '97 '99 '01 ' 03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15 '17 '19 '21 '23 '25 '27 '29 Low Mid High Source: B&A,

11 Major Cruise Corporations Carnival Corp, 48% RCCL, 24% NCL, 7% MSC, 6% Other, 15% Source: Cruise Industry News, B&A,

12 N.A. capacity ranking by region Alaska 4 5 Mexico Wes t Caribbean N. Europe Mediterranean Source: CLIA, and B&A

13 Strengths include: Cruise Overview Access to regional consumers; High quality tourism infrastructure and tourist offer; Deepwater marine access; New Terminal 18; Number and length of cruise berths. 13

14 Cruise Summary Cruise passenger throughput increased by 76.4% between 2000 and 2009 (approx. 6.95% annually); Oasis of the Seas 2010 FY Allure of the Seas 2011 FY Adding 1.2-million revenue passengers in 2 years Multi-Day cruise calls falling with larger ships deployed to Port Everglades; and, Daily & Non-conventional cruise is a wildcard due to market influences. Bahamas Celebration added in March

15 Cruise Revenue Passenger Growth, FY1996-FY2009 4,500,000 4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 2,100, ,500, 000 2,250, 000 2,390, 000 2,730, 3,063, ,484, 000 3,380, 4,075,000 3,786, ,000 3, 3,398,000 3,212,000 3,758, , Source: B&A,

16 Cruise Line Activity, FY2010 Projected Day, 16% Others, 1% Carnival, 16% Celebrity, 6% Costa, 5% RCI, 27% HAL, 11% Princess, 26% MSC, 4% Source: B&A,

17 70% Daily Traffic Comparison 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% SAT/SUN MON/FRI MID WEEK Source: B&A,

18 Port Everglades And Port Of Miami Growth 4,500,000 4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000, , Port Everglades Port of Miami Source: B&A,

19 Primary Cruise Target Regions Galveston UNITED STATES New Orleans North MEXICO Mexico City Acapulco North Pacific Ocean Vera Cruz Gulf of Mexico Cozumel BELIZE Turneffe Is. Roatan Guanaja Is. Puerto Barrios Puerto Cortes HONDURAS GUATEMALA EL SALVADOR Port Everglades Key West PANAMA Tampa Miami Western Caribbean Western Caribbean Havana Cancun Puerto Morelos CUBA Playa del Carmen Belize City Georgetown NICARAGUA nlimó Puerto Caldera COSTA RICA GRAND CAYMAN Montego Bay JAMAICA Freeport BAHAMAS Nassau Ocho Rios Port Antonio Kingston Caribbean Sea Providencia Is. San Andres Bahamas Lower Western Caribbean HAITI San Blas Is. Transcanal Cristobal Panama Cartagena Balboa Panama Canal Medellin Atlantic Ocean Eastern Caribbean CapHaitien PuertoPlata Port-au-Prince DOMINICA REPUBLIC ARUBA Santo Domingo PUERTORICO SanJuan ST. THOMAS (U.S. VIRGINIS.) ST. CROIX NEVIS ST. CHRISTOPHER Willemstad Caracas VENEZUELA ST. JOHNS (U.S. VIRGINIS.) ANGUILLA ST. MAARTIN BARBUDA ANTIGUA ST. VINCENT GUADELOUPE DOMINICA MARTINIQUE Fort-de-France ST. LUCIA Lower Southern BONAIRE CURACAO Caribbean Margarita Is. GRENADA Georgetown G BARBADOS Bridgetown Port-of-Spain TRINIDAD & TOBAGO Bogotá Cali COLOMBIA BRAZIL UYANA 19

20 35,000,000 N.A. Capacity Placement Primary Influence on P.E. 30,000,000 25,000,000 20,000,000 15,000,000 10,000,000 5,000, Caribbean Bahamas Source: B&A,

21 Caribbean Growth Factors N.A. lines trending toward US homeports and key Caribbean homeports to reach lower Caribbean Carnival controls majority of all beds in the region NCL focusing on US market - expanding presence RCI moving out small ships in favor of larger ships Consumer demand for value for money Economic downturn growing shorter cruises 21

22 10,000,000 9,000,000 8,000,000 Range Of Revenue Passenger Projections 7,000,000 6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000, M M 5.6 M 5.4 M 4.0 M 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000, Historical B MID Daily & Non-conventional l A C SCENARIOS MOST L I IKLEY (Combined Conv. & Daily) Source: B&A,

23 2,500 Passengers Per Ship Growth 2,000 1,500 1, Multi-Day Conventional Daily Non-Conventional Source: B&A,

24 5,000 Passengers Per Ship Projections 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Multi-Day Conventional Daily Non-Conventional Multi-Day Growth Daily Growth Multi-Day (Genesis Adjusted) Source: B&A,

25 3,0000 Ship Call Projections 2,5000 2,0000 1,5000 1, , His to ric al C Scenarios B MID Dail ily & No n-co nve ntio nal A Mos t Like l ly ((Com bined ed) Source: B&A,

26 850, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,000 50,000 Monthly Passenger Traffic OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP Source: B&A,

27 Purvin & Gertz - Liquid Bulk Presented by Stephen Jones 27

28 Light Product Demand 1000 Light Product Demand (MB/D) Population (Millions) 25 Light product demand forecast mostly population driven FL Lt Prod Dmd FL Pop 20 U.S. light product growth (0.1)% per yr PADD I light product growth (0.1)% per yr PE Lt Prod Dmd PE Pop '99 '04 '09 '14 '19 '24 ' FL light product growth 0.7% per yr PE light product growth 0.5% per yr U.S. population growth 0.9% per yr PADD I population growth 0.8% per yr FL population growth 1.9% per yr PE population growth 1.4% per yr 28

29 Port Competition Seven major commercial ports in Florida Currently only two other ports have diversified petroleum operations Tampa and Jacksonville Only Tampa directly competes with Port Everglades Other ports reviewed include: Palm Beach, Canaveral, Manatee and Miami. The BORCO terminal was also reviewed Port Canaveral is currently adding 2.7 million barrels of petroleum storage capacity that will compete directly with the Port Late 2009 startup Tampa adding an additional 1.1 million barrels of storage that is to be operational by January 2010 Utilization rates currently very high, additional capacity to help meet future demand increases Possible delay in project due to funding issues Competitive interfaces are accounted for in the throughput outlook 29

30 Port Everglades Throughput MB/D Avgas Crude Oil Asphalt Propane Fuel Oil Diesel Jet & Kerosene Gasoline '99 '04 '09 '14 '19 '24 '29 Throughput flat through 2010, 0.9% per year increase thereafter Gasoline will continue to be largest throughput volumes Distillate to become larger percentage of throughput Biofuels and greater number of fuel grades to create additional complexities 30

31 Vessel Calls at Port Everglades Calls per Year '99 '04 '09 '14 '19 '24 '29 Foreign Tanker Domestic Tanker Barge Decrease in vessel calls through % increase per year from 2011 through 2029 Trend toward some larger foreign tankers, therefore less calls Barges and foreign tankers have been replacing domestic tankers in recent years New Jones Act tankers currently being added to fleets and under construction are expected to recover much of lost market share 31

32 Additional Considerations Despite the recent market demand downturn, several other factors must be considered when making decisions regarding the Port s liquid bulk infrastructure. Deliveries to the Port are not ratable and annual average volumes may not reflect peak activity at the Port Continued improvements to reduce demurrage should create a competitive advantage and help preserve market share The increased number of terminal operators is adding ship calls to the Port New fuels have created a complexity not previously managed by the Port. Additional products such as biodiesel, ethanol, and several fuel grades may require additional dock piping, tankage and calls Inherent uncertainty in the planning basis (forecast) suggests a need to monitor market conditions and maintain infrastructure improvement plans. 32

33 Common Observations from Tenant/Stakeholder Discussions Operators expect throughput to be flat or down slightly over the next few years No significant changes are expected in mix of ships versus barge traffic Preference for using larger vessels has highlighted the need for loading arms with wider operating envelope Periodic high port traffic and congestion appear to hinder petroleum vessel movements New ethanol requirements for supplying finished gasoline add complexity to cover demand during hurricane events 33

34 Updating Element 3: Plan Development Updating Project Development: - Midport Berth Expansion - Northport Berth Expansion - Carve Out of Convention Center - By-Pass Road Development - Port Wide Traffic and Parking Strategies 34

35 Midport and Northport Berth Expansion Location of berth(s) for cruise ships to accommodate: Vessel LOA: /- feet Location of berth(s) for liquid bulk ships Location of bulk and general cargo ships 35

36 Midport Berth Expansion Location of berth(s) for panamax ships to accommodate: Existing crane height of 160 feet AMSL Vessel LOA: 900 feet Berth 27 expansion for cruise ships Location of Ferry Vessels? 36

37 37

38 38

39 Midport Parking Expansion Location of near term and far term structured parking facilities Carve Out of Convention Center Identification of security infrastructure requirements for CT 2 & 4 39

40 By-Pass Road 40

41 Port-Wide Projects Incorporation of Locally Preferred Plan for Harbor Dredging and Widening Incorporation of Updates to the Bulkhead Conditions Assessment Location of ID center Traffic and Parking Strategies 41

42 Traffic Projections through the Gates Location: McIntosh Road s/o Eller Drive Start Date 04/01/09 Direction: N Direction: S Combined Total 24-Hour Totals Peak Volume Hour Volume Hour Volume Hour Volume AM AM AM PM PM PM Daily Daily Daily Truck Percentage

43 Parking Projections Parameter Parking Fac ility Additional Parking Midport Northport T-19 S urface L ot Total S paces P arking C apacity 1,950 2, ,704 P eak Month Overnight Dec-08 Mar-08 Nov-08 Average peak Month Overnight 1, ,827 High P eak Month Overnight 1,872 1, ,505 C T

44 5-Year Plan to be Updated to Fiscal Years 2010 to Plan to be Updated 44

45 10-Year Vision Plan to be Updated to Fiscal Years 2015 to Plan to be Updated 45

46 20-Year Vision Plan to be Updated to Fiscal Years 2020 to Plan to be Updated 46

47 Next Steps All Business Sectors to meet for Summary of Comments - June 19, 2009; 10:00 am to 12:00 noon; Port Everglades Administration Building; Auditorium 47