The NSR as an alternative to the southern sea transportation route between Europe and South-Eastern Asia

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Clyde Parks
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CNIIMF Central Marine Research & Design Institute

Laboratory Leading Research Scientist Senior Researcher The

1 CNIIMF Central Marine Research & Design Institute Laboratory of Icebreaking Technology and Ice Performance of Ships Prof. Loliy Tsoy Yury Glebko Nataliya Vyssotskaya Head of Laboratory Leading Research Scientist Senior Researcher The NSR as an alternative to the southern sea transportation route between Europe and South-Eastern Asia Moscow, 5 June

Speed, kn The basic lines of Laboratory of Icebreaking Technology activity Forecast of the development of

Mathematical modeling of the ship motion in ice Tanker Icebreaker2 Icebreaker1 Expertise of icebreaker and ship

Zone ABCD - attainable speed BGF - safe speed ABGF - admissible speed C Ice Certificates and Interim

2 Speed, kn The basic lines of Laboratory of Icebreaking Technology activity Forecast of the development of icebreakers and cargo ships Feasibility study and optimization of principal parameters of ships and icebreakers Mathematical modeling of the ship motion in ice Tanker Icebreaker2 Icebreaker1 Expertise of icebreaker and ship designs Acceptance and trial of new ships Safe zone A Residual deformations are possible B Hazard Zone ABCD - attainable speed BGF - safe speed ABGF - admissible speed C Ice Certificates and Interim Recommendations on Ice Safety G D E F 0 0,0 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,6 0,7 0,8 0,9 1,0 1,1 1,2 1,3 1,4 1,5 1,6 Ice thickness, m 2

The basic lines of Laboratory of Icebreaking Technology activity Participation in the development of the Register Rules and Regulations for navigation on the Northern Sea Route and freezing ports of

selection of hull lines, ice class and power of ice-going ships International shipping research projects INSROP, ARCDEV, ARCOP, AMSA Unified IACS requirements, IMO Guidelines for ships operating in

Class Russian Maritime Register of LU8 LU7 LU6 LU5 LU4 Shipping (Rules 2003) Russian Maritime Register of - ULA - UL L1 Shipping (Rules 1995) IMO Guidelines (IACS Polar Ship PC2 PC3 PC4 PC5 / PC6 PC7

3 The basic lines of Laboratory of Icebreaking Technology activity Participation in the development of the Register Rules and Regulations for navigation on the Northern Sea Route and freezing ports of the Russian Federation Requirements to strength, propulsion and manoeuvrability as well as to propeller-rudder units and other means increasing the icebreaking capability Recommendations for the selection of hull lines, ice class and power of ice-going ships International shipping research projects INSROP, ARCDEV, ARCOP, AMSA Unified IACS requirements, IMO Guidelines for ships operating in Arctic icecovered waters and HELCOM recommendations on winter navigation in the Baltic Sea, Polar Code of IMO Consulting services to foreign shipbuilders and oil companies Classification Society Ice Class Russian Maritime Register of LU8 LU7 LU6 LU5 LU4 Shipping (Rules 2003) Russian Maritime Register of - ULA - UL L1 Shipping (Rules 1995) IMO Guidelines (IACS Polar Ship PC2 PC3 PC4 PC5 / PC6 PC7 Rules) CASPPR, 1995 CAC2 CAC3 CAC4 A B American Bureau of Shipping A4 A3 A2 А1 А0 POLAR-10 ICE-10 ICE-05 Det Norske Veritas POLAR-20 POLAR-15 ICE-15 ICE-1А* ICE-1А Lloyd s Register AC2 AC1.5 AC1 1AS 1A Germanischer Lloyd Arc3 Arc2 Arc1 Е4 Е3 Finnish-Swedish Ice Rules А Super 1А Bureau Veritas A Super 1А Nippon Kaiji Kyokai A Super 1A Korean Register of Shipping ISS IS1 China Classification Society B1* B1 Registro Italiano Navale AS 1A 3

4 Northern transit path Hamburg-Yokohama through NSR (7100 nm) Southern transit path Hamburg- Yokohama through Suez canal (11580 nm) 4

5 Forecast assessment of the area of ice cover in the Arctic (project AMSA Arctic Maritime Shipping Assessment) The North- Western Passage The Northern Sea Route 5

6 High-latitude route of m/v Kapitan Myshevskiy escorted by nuclear icebreaker Sibir May June

7 Transit commercial voyage of m/v Kandalaksha along the NSR within the framework of the international scientific program INSROP August

Length 252,0 m 210 m Breadth 32,2 m 30,2 m Draft 11,5 m 11,5 m Deadweight

8 Design of the arctic container ship with a capacity 2500 TEU Conventional container ship with a capacity 2500 TEU with no ice class Ice class Arc7 - Length 252,0 m 210 m Breadth 32,2 m 30,2 m Draft 11,5 m 11,5 m Deadweight t t Shaft power 32 МW 21,5 МW Speed 21 kn 22 kn Icebreaking capability 2,0 m - 8

Characteristics of linear arctic icebreakers Characteristics Nuclear icebreaker «50 let Pobedy» New generation icebreaker LK-60 Nuclear icebreaker Ice class Icebreaker 9 Icebreaker 9 Length 145.

9 Characteristics of linear arctic icebreakers Characteristics Nuclear icebreaker «50 let Pobedy» New generation icebreaker LK-60 Nuclear icebreaker Ice class Icebreaker 9 Icebreaker 9 Length m 160 m Breadth 28 m 33 m Draft 11.0 m 10.5 m Displacement t t Shaft power 49 MW 60 MW Speed 21.0 kn 22.0 kn Icebreaking capability 2.7 m 3.0 m Design of 60 MW universal nuclear icebreaker 9

10 Duration, days Summer Autumn Winter Spring Duration of the independent navigation of cargo ships along the seaways of the NSR versus their icebreaking capability 360 Arc4 Arc5 Arc6 Arc7 Arc8 Arc Under Escorting 1 in transit navigation along the NSR and in the East Arctic region, in the West Arctic region, 3 in the western part of the Kara Sea, 90 1 Independently 4 in the south-eastern part of the Barents sea 0 0,5 1,0 1,5 2,0 2,5 3,0 3,5 4,0 Icebreaking capability, m 10

11 Scheme of technical and economical calculations Type of ship Arctic container ship Variant of the navigation along the NSR Independently Escorted by icebreaker Type of icebreaker Icebreaker 50 let Pobedy Icebreaker 60 MW Type of ice conditions Light Moderate 11

12 Duration, days Speed, kn Speeds and duration of navigation of arctic container vessel independently and under nuclear icebreaker escort through the NSR under typical ice conditions st. Kara Gate - Bering Strait Months Icebreaker 60 MW Icebreaker "50 Let Pobedy" Independently st. Kara Gate - Bering Strait Independently Icebreaker "50 Let Pobedy" Icebreaker 60 MW Months 12

13 Duration, days Speed, kn Speeds and duration of navigation of arctic container vessel independently and under nuclear icebreaker escort through the NSR taking into account predicted warming in the Arctic 18 st. Kara Gate - Bering Strait Icebreaker 60 MW 4 Icebreaker "50 Let Pobedy" 25 Independently Months st. Kara Gate - Bering Strait Independently Icebreaker "50 Let Pobedy" Icebreaker 60 MW Months 13

14 Duration, days Duration of the voyage of 2500 TEU container vessel from Hamburg to Yokohama: 1 - through NSR (typical ice conditions); 2 - through Suez Canal c 1а - under escort of icebreaker '50 Let Pobedy' 1b - under escort of new generation icebreaker LK-60 1c - independently through NSR through Suez Canal a 1b Months 14

15 Duration, days Duration of the voyage of 2500 TEU container vessel from Hamburg to Yokohama: 1 - through NSR (warming in the Arctic); 2 - through Suez Canal 40 1с a b Months 1а - under escort of icebreaker '50 Let Pobedy' 1b - under escort of new generation icebreaker LK-60 1c - independently through NSR 2 - through Suez Canal 15

16 The cost value of the delivery of one container Cost value of the transportatin of one container from Germany to Japan on the Southern way and via the Northern route using icebreaker «50 let Pobedy» 250% 200% 1 150% 2 100% 3 50% 0% Months 1. under average statistic ice conditions 2. under condition of the eventual warming 3. when navigating through the Suez canal 16

17 Comparison of the cost value of the delivery of one container in the direction from Yokohama to Hamburg on the Southern way and via the Northern route under the escort of icebreaker «50 let Pobedy» (on the average per year) USD/TEU Through the Northern Sea Route Under the icebreaker assistance Independently under average statistic ice seaways of the NSR conditions on 115 % - taking into account the anticipated warming in the Arctic 96 % 87 % Through the Suez Canal 100 % 17

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Baltic Marine Environment Protection Commission

Baltic Marine Environment Protection Commission Revised HELCOM RECOMMENDATION 25/7 Adopted 2 March 2004 having regard to Article 13, Paragraph b) of the Helsinki Convention Revised 4 March 2015 and 10