ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF PIRACY AND ARMED ROBBERY ON SHIPPING

Transcription

1 EUROPEAN COMMISSION SEMINAR PIRACY AND ARMED ROBBERY AGAINST SHIPPING BRUSSELS 21st JANUARY 2009 ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF PIRACY AND ARMED ROBBERY ON SHIPPING Presentation by G. De Monie MSc. Senior Director Policy Research

2 ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF PIRACY IN THE GULF OF ADEN CARRIERS AND CHARTERERS HAVE A CHOICE CONTINUE TRANSITS THROUGH SUEZ RE-ROUT VIA CAPE INCREASED RISK + HIGHER COSTS INCREASED COST FOR SHIP AND CARGO

3 THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF RE-ROUTING VIA THE CAPE: AN OVERVIEW OF MAIN AFFECTED PARTIES AFFECTED PARTIES Egyptian economy CONSEQUENCES Loss foreign currency earnings Negative impact on GDP ANTICIPATED IMPACT Very significant on Egyptian treasury and on national economy Suez Canal Authority Mediterranean Port Authorities Mediterranean Terminal Operators Charterers Regular shipping Lines Industry Consumers Loss in operating earnings Unemployment of SCA staff Decline n of ship calls/ ship size Loss transhipment/transit cargo Loss transhipment/transit activity Decline in operating revenue Increased total operating expenditures Decreased carrying capacity Price increases Longer in-transit & delivery times Price increases Longer in-transit & delivery times Extremely negative if piracy problem is not contained quickly Strong decline in revenues, in particular in major transhipment hubs and transit ports Dramatic for terminals in key hub ports (but distinction between Med and N.W. European transhipment) Impact of cost increases possibly passed on to the cargo owners Negative because of cost increases and less than optimal supply chain Different impact of price increases depending on cargo value and prevailing market conditions

4 ECONOMIC SIGNIFICANCE OF THE SUEZ CANAL Total Suez Canal Authority revenue in billion US$ Total n of vessels transiting through Suez canal Cargo weight in million M.T. transiting through Suez canal

5 VESSEL RELATED EXPENDITURES AS A CONSEQUENCE OF PIRACY IN THE GULF OF ADEN VIA SUEZ WAR RISK INSURANCE SUEZ CANAL TOLL ADDITIONAL MANNING COST LICENSED SECURITY GUARD KIDNAP & RANSOM (ADD. P&I) SONIC DETERRENT EQUIPMENT CARGO INSURANCE ADD. PREMIUM VIA CAPE RE-ROUTED VESSELS ADD. CAPITAL COST OR CHARTER HIRE ADDITIONAL VOYAGE COSTS + HIGHER BUNKER COSTS AT WAY PORTS + ADD. CARGO INVENTORY COST ADDITIONAL EQUIPMENT COST ADDITIONAL VESSELS ADDITIONAL OPERATIONAL COSTS

6 ADDITIONAL COSTS PER TRANSIT VIA SUEZ AS A CONSEQUENCE OF THE PIRACY RISK IN GULF OF ADEN VIA SUEZ WAR RISK INSURANCE KIDNAP & RANSOM (ADD. P&I) CARGO INSURANCE ADD. PREMIUM US$ US$ per transit US$ per transit US$ US$ per transit LICENSED SECURITY GUARD SONIC DETERRENT EQUIPMENT Source: USA Maritime Administration and various press articles

7 ADDITIONAL CARGO INVENTORY COSTS AS A CONSEQUENCE OF RE-ROUTING VIA THE CAPE Type of cargo Total cargo volume Cargo value (in US$) Total cargo value (in billion US$) Additional inventory costs at 4% interest rate (in US$) Additional inventory costs at 5% interest rate (in US$) Container cargoes TEU /TEU MT Liquid bulk cargoes MT 360/ MT Dry bulk cargoes MT 75/MT TOTAL Based on 2007 data

8 ADDITIONAL SHIP COSTS AS A CONSEQUENCE OF RE-ROUTING VIA THE CAPE Working assumptions Ship type Transit days via Suez (full roundtrip) Transit days via Cape (full roundtrip) Suezmax (15 knots) 41 days 67 days 75% of total transits through Suez Capesize (15 knots) VLCC (15 knots) Containerships (23 knots) 41 days 41 days 28 days 67 days 67 days 45 days

9 ADDITIONAL SHIP COSTS AS A CONSEQUENCE OF RE-ROUTING VIA THE CAPE Total annual cost of required roundtrip voyages via Suez Total annual cost of required roundtrip voyages via Cape Differential between Suez and Cape route (based on n of roundtrip voyages via Suez) Total annual cost of required additional vessel space Total annual additional cost of using Cape instead of Suez route assuming 100 % of tankers, bulk carriers and container ships are directed via Cape route Total annual additional cost of using Cape instead of Suez route assuming 1/3 of tankers, bulk carriers and container ships are directed via Cape route Figures include inventory costs of cargo US$ 25.7 billion US$ 32.2 billion US$ 6.6 billion US$ 15.9 billion US$ 22.5 billion US$ 7.5 billion RE-ROUTING 33% OF CARGOES VIA CAPE WOULD COST US$ 7.5 BILLION EXTRA PER ANNUM

10 EUROPEAN COMMISSION SEMINAR PIRACY AND ARMED ROBBERY AGAINST SHIPPING BRUSSELS 21st JANUARY 2009 ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF PIRACY AND ARMED ROBBERY ON SHIPPING Presentation by G. De Monie MSc. Senior Director Policy Research