INSERÇÃO DE NOVAS FONTES RENOVÁVEIS NO PLANEJAMENTO ENERGÉTICO NACIONAL
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1 INSERÇÃO DE NOVAS FONTES RENOVÁVEIS NO PLANEJAMENTO ENERGÉTICO NACIONAL The Role of Flexible Power Plants 1 Wärtsilä 22 September 2016 The Role of Flexible Power Plants/ Wärtsilä Brasil
2 Global Network Wärtsilä Services global network Widest range of offering and expertise We are where our customers need us to be: 11,000 service professionals in 70 countries, 160 locations 2 Wärtsilä 22 September 2016 Presentation name / Author
3 Installed base* Wärtsilä Powering the World Americas: Output: 11.7 GW Europe: Output: 12.5 GW Asia: Output: 19.8 GW Total: 56,2 GW Countries: 169 Africa & Middle East: Output: 12.5 GW Utilities IPPs Industry Others 3 Wärtsilä 22 September 2016 The Role of Flexible Power Plants/ Wärtsilä Brasil
4 This is Finland EPG Summit, Prague, Dec Kenneth Engblom, Wartsila Corporation
5 Our nationalities Finland India Italy China Netherlands Norway Great Britain Brazil Pakistan France Singapore Germany Philippines Spain Poland South Korea Switzerland Denmark Bangladesh U.S. Indonesia Sweden Russia Japan Ecuador Kenya Myanmar Canada Turkey Malaysia Dominica Guyana Greece South Africa Lithuania Senegal Colombia Nigeria Argentina Guinea Australia Sri Lanka Saudi Arabia Hungary Uganda Cameroon Puerto Rico Tanzania Azerbaijan Estonia Zambia Portugal Madagascar Romania Gabon Taiwan Venezuela Mexico Ukraine Uruguay Chile Jordania Antigua Panama Dominican Republic Vietnam Peru Yemen Iran Cuba Cyprus Guatemala Croatia Pap.NewGuinea El Salvador Thailand Egypt Ireland Serbia Morocco Slovenia Austria Bulgaria Jamaica Mozambique Nepal Netherlands Antilles Ghana Falkland Islands Latvia New Zealand East Timor Albania Czech Republic Ethiopia Iraq Macau Mauritius Rwanda Somalia Cape Verde Surinam Syria Togo Zimbabwe Unit.Arab Emirates Belgium Burkina-Faso Burundi Belarus Belize DR Congo Congo Australia Algeria Faroe Islands Haiti Iceland Cambodia Cayman Islands Kazakhstan Lebanon Macedonia Mauritania Namibia Paraguay Sudan Slovakia Tunisia EPG Summit, Prague, Dec Kenneth Engblom, Wartsila Corporation
6 SPG references STEC Pearsall, USA Output: 202 MW Fuel: Natural Gas Prime movers: 24 x Wärtsilä 20V34 SG Operating mode: Wind following Start of commercial operation: Wärtsilä 22 September 2016 The Role of Flexible Power Plants/ Wärtsilä Brasil
7 230 MW, USA Plains End I and II, Colorado, USA Fuel: Natural Gas Prime movers: 20 x Wärtsilä 18V34 SG, 14 x Wärtsilä 20V34SG Output: 231 MW Operating mode: Peaking / Wind following Year of completion: 2001 & Wärtsilä 22 September 2016 The Role of Flexible Power Plants/ Wärtsilä Brasil
8 163 MW, USA Humboldt Bay Generating Station, California, USA Fuel: Dual (Natural Gas & LFO) Prime movers: 10 x Wärtsilä 18V50DF Output: 163 MW Operating mode: Flexible Baseload Year of completion: 2010 Scope: EPC 8 Wärtsilä 22 September 2016 The Role of Flexible Power Plants/ Wärtsilä Brasil
9 176 MW, Brazil UTE Viana, Brazil Fuel: HFO Prime movers: 20 x Wärtsilä 20V32 Output: 176 MW Operating mode: Grid stability Year of completion: 2009 Scope: EPC 9 Wärtsilä 22 September 2016 The Role of Flexible Power Plants/ Wärtsilä Brasil
10 Market trends and challenges Market trends and drivers Economic growth, electrification and improving standard of living Growth in sustainable energy, reducing carbon emissions Rapid growth of intermittent renewable generation and escalating demand fluctuation Natural gas replacing other fossil fuels Ageing installed capacity driving investments in new technologies The world needs clean, affordable, and reliable power generation 10 Wärtsilä 22 September 2016 The Role of Flexible Power Plants/ Wärtsilä Brasil
11 World electricity consumption Reasons for growth of electricity demand Electrification (heat pumps, appliances...) GDP growth Increasing standard of living World Electricity Consumption GWh 8,00% 6,00% 4,00% 2,00% 0,00% -2,00% Source: Enerdata Electricity yearly cons. growth % GDP yearly growth rate % 11 Wärtsilä 22 September 2016 The Role of Flexible Power Plants/ Wärtsilä Brasil
12 It is not different in Brazil % Annual change in GDP vs. increase in electrical energy consumption (% p.a.) Rationing 2008 Financial Crisis Electrical energy demand (TWh / year) CAGR: 3.2% CAGR: 3.2% Grid Demand Self-Generation Total (TWh) GDP Electrical Energy Consumption The historically strong correlation between real GDP growth and the annual increase in electrical energy consumption suggests that the strong demand for electric power will continue in the coming years,after the recovery of the Brazilian GDP.. Source: EPE Demand for Energy 2050; IBGE; MME The Brazilian Energy Research Office (EPE) has estimated that the annual energy demand will more than triple during the period, from 513 to 1624 TWh per year, but these figures are under evaluation to capture the impact of the economic crisis. LNG is recognized as a bridge to link today's period to the future. 9.4 GW gas fired PP is the planned increment by Wärtsilä 22 September 2016 The Role of Flexible Power Plants/ Wärtsilä Brasil
13 The growing importance of renewables Globally: Demand for renewable energy continue to rise 2012: 1470 GW capacity 2011: 19% of final energy consumption Renewables (RES) accounted for >50% of total net additions to electric generating capacity from all sources in 2012 Solar photovoltaics (PV) 2007: <10 GW 2012: >100 GW Wind power 2007: <100 GW 2012: 275 GW Source: RES21: Renewables 2013 Global Status Report 13 Wärtsilä 22 September 2016 The Role of Flexible Power Plants/ Wärtsilä Brasil
14 Wind power cumulative capacity Sources: GWEC, 14 Wärtsilä 22 September 2016 The Role of Flexible Power Plants/ Wärtsilä Brasil
15 Wind power cumulative capacity 15 Wärtsilä 22 September 2016 The Role of Flexible Power Plants/ Wärtsilä Brasil
16 Solar power cumulative capacity Sources: statista.com/ 16 Wärtsilä 22 September 2016 The Role of Flexible Power Plants/ Wärtsilä Brasil
17 World capacity mix 2010 & scenario Hydro 20% Bioenergy 1% Wind 4% Solar PV 1% Oher (Geothermal, CSP, Marine) 0% Coal 32% 2030 Bioenergy 2% Wind 11% Solar PV 6% Other (Geothermal, CSP, Marine) 1% Coal 26% GW GW Oil 3% Nuclear 8% Hydro 19% Oil 8% Gas 26% Nuclear 6% Gas 26% Source: World Energy Outlook 2012 IEA, New Policies Scenario 17 Wärtsilä 22 September 2016 The Role of Flexible Power Plants/ Wärtsilä Brasil
18 System impact of wind power Source: Vestas Reaching 20% renewable power requires approximately 285 GW of installed wind capacity in the EU A wind speed change from 9 -> 7 m/s could change wind power output with ~100 GW. Such wind speed changes are barely notable and happen all the time. 18 Wärtsilä 22 September 2016 The Role of Flexible Power Plants/ Wärtsilä Brasil
19 Experiências EUA, Texas Texas has experienced 1h wind ramps of 3,039 MW increase and 2,849 decrease of 8,900 MW installed.
20 Experiências EUA, Texas ~3,000 MW gone in <1h
21 System impact of solar power Source: CAISO 21 Wärtsilä 22 September 2016 The Role of Flexible Power Plants/ Wärtsilä Brasil
22 System impact of solar power 22 Wärtsilä 22 September 2016 The Role of Flexible Power Plants/ Wärtsilä Brasil
23 Wind chasing in Colorado, US Load Grid operator data from: Coal power plants Wind generation Gas generation Plains End 1 & 2 power plants Flexible generation EPG 23 Summit, WärtsiläPrague, 22 September Dec Kenneth The Role Engblom of Flexible, Wartsila Power Corporation Plants/ Wärtsilä Brasil In systems with high wind penetration, the system faces Lower average load & more part load operation of installed plants Faster ramp up s and down s needs More starts and stops
24 Technical challenge 45 Quick Starts & loading Quick Stops & de-loading FLEX GEN 1 SOLAR GW FLEX GEN 2 WIND COAL 5 NUCLEAR Hour 24 Wärtsilä 22 September 2016 The Role of Flexible Power Plants/ Wärtsilä Brasil Part load & spinning reserves
25 Flexibility is key! 25 Wärtsilä 22 September 2016 The Role of Flexible Power Plants/ Wärtsilä Brasil
26 Again, not different here... Fonte: PDE 2022 ( Larga expansão de capacidade instalada de fontes sazonais e/ou intermitentes no sistema elétrico brasileiro, com destaque para a fonte eólica (+15GW). Novas usinas hidrelétricas (+36GW) usarão o conceito de fio d água, não havendo nova capacidade de armazenamento, sendo a maioria a ser instalada na Amazônia. O Brasil perderá, ao longo dos próximos anos, a capacidade de armazenamento das hidrelétricas que possui. Haverá redução na relação entre energia armazenável e carga. Incerteza quanto as hidrologias futuras no NE brasileiro. 26 Wärtsilä 22 September 2016 The Role of Flexible Power Plants/ Wärtsilä Brasil
27 Como o sistema opera hoje 27 Wärtsilä 22 September 2016 The Role of Flexible Power Plants/ Wärtsilä Brasil
28 Como será que vai ficar? 28 Wärtsilä 22 September 2016 The Role of Flexible Power Plants/ Wärtsilä Brasil
29 Main topics for discussions There is no magic solution; Impacts (in Brazil) of intermitent and stochastic generation needs further study and developments; More fluctuations in load and generation will require more system flexibility; State-of-art forecast methodologies are a must; Planning of the operation has to be adapt; Auction process requires constant update; Natural gas supply issue must be adressed. 29 Wärtsilä 22 September 2016 The Role of Flexible Power Plants/ Wärtsilä Brasil
30 EPG 30 Summit, WärtsiläPrague, 22 September Dec Kenneth The Role Engblom of Flexible, Wartsila Power Corporation Plants/ Wärtsilä Brasil
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