a twilight year for liner shipping

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1 The container ship market in 2016 a twilight year for liner shipping Jan Tiedemann senior analyst liner shipping and ports Alphaliner

2 container fleet snapshot: August 2016 no. of cellular ships: 5,160 units total capacity: 20,307 Mteu year-on-year increase vs. August 2015: 6.1% percentage of idle ships (by teu): 5.0% vessel order book size: 3.48 Mteu order book as % of current fleet (by teu): 17.15% Average age of the cellular fleet: gross: 10.8 years teu weighted: 8.1 years

3 container market challenges - vessel oversupply has become a chronic disease : it could linger for years to come. There is no quick fix and the order book is still fairly large. - lukewarm demand only supports rock-bottom rates. What has happened to the teu / GDP multiplier? No more volume growth from non-organic one off effects. - high rate volatility : even small declines in vessel load factors cause dramatic rate erosion. - A fairly young container ship fleet limits the scrapping potential. - Mergers and acquisitions, alliance restructuring, Panama Canal expansion, port and terminal development : uncertainty about which type of ship will serve which market in the future. - Lack of perspective: The market will likely never return to pre-2009 conditions. Where will a future equilibrium be at? What is going to be the new normal?

4 oversupply: the idle fleet Throughout the crisis years, vessel idling has been highly cyclical and highly seasonal. Since the outbreak of the crisis in the fleet has never returned to full employment status. With the exception of short periods, there has been chronic unemployment across a wide variety of vessels sizes. The srcapping of small and mid-sized tonnage and the influx of new, mostly large, newbuilt ships have gradually shifted the burden of unemployment toward larger vessel sizes. This means that

5 oversupply: the idle fleet All time high despite fewer idle ships at the seasonal peak of early 2016, the total teu capacity of the unemployed fleet has reached an all time high. Compared to the 2010, peak only about half as many ships were unemployed (ca. 350 vs ca. 600 vessels) early this year. The total idle capacity was nevertheless higher during the slow season of 2016 than six years earlier. The Panama Canal expansion has thrown a lifeline to ships of 6,000-8,000 teu, some of which have found new employment, but it has de-facto killed the classic panamax.

6 oversupply: the vessel order book Compared to one year ago, the vessel order book... has decreased from 4.10 Mteu (21.2%) to 3.48 Mteu (17.1%) of the current fleet has decreased from 490 to 460 vessels The container ship order book is still heavily skewed in favour of large vessels. However, more recently, orders for small ships (ca 1,100 2,500 teu) have increased again

7 annual net fleet growth > 1 Mteu oversupply: the vessel order book As a percentage of the overall container ship fleet, the vessel order book has persistently decreased throughout the crisis years (see blue line). However.this decrease in relative terms mainly comes from the ever-growing container fleet, which as increased from ca 12 Mteu in 2009 to over 20 Mteu today. the order book hovered around the 4.0 Mteu mark since 2010 in terms of actual size. net fleet growth has not at all slowed down since the start of the global economic crisis on

8 capacity development on the main east-west trades Note the different scales of the above diagrams. At a similar scale, the three main east west routes would compare like this in terms of teu capacity: Over the past years, vessel capacity has increased notably on all three main east-west trades. This growth - at least in general - does not come from additional services, but is mainly driven by vessel growth. Despite some lukewarm and often temporary attempts to curb capacity growth, slots supply has outgrown any demand increases.

9 freight rate development (here: spot rates) Relentless fleet capacity growth on the main eastwest corridors, combined with lukewarm cargo demand, has kept freight rates at unsustainable levels for extended periods. The big order book of predominantly large mainline container vessels will make effective capacity management very difficult for carriers. All time low Unless deferred or canceled, these ships will end up on trades that will hardly be able to absorb this much new capacity. If not for a major cargo demand bump (unlikely) or a large-scale across-the-board deferral program for new-built mainline ships, there will be little scope for a sustainable, lasting, rate recovery.

10 current alliance set-ups

11 the twilight zone: post merger pre alliance revamp COSCO-CSCL merger Hanjin bankruptcy CMA CGM buys APL Hapag-Lloyd UASC merger

12 planned alliance set-ups for mid-2017

13 2017 Alliance capacities (in Mteu) Note : based on mid-2016 carrier capacities, including ships operated on non-alliance services

14 Future of non-alliance carriers? 2017 alliance set-up - further uncertainties Further carrier consolidation? Effissimo rumor What will happen to Hanjin? Note : based on mid-2016 carrier capacities, including ships operated on non-alliance services

15 conclusions - The mid-term outlook remains bleak. A demand growth scenario under which the current order book of 3.50 Mteu can easily be absorbed on the market is not in sight. - Freight rates will remain under pressure in the foreseeable future. - On the plus side: 2016 could become a year with few new orders. The effect of this restraint will however only be felt in , when the inflow of new tonnage could be reduced to more sustainable levels is a twilight year : major industry mergers and bankruptcies have already taken place, but the effect of these events will only be felt in 2017, once new alliance networks have been implemented. - The current tonnage overhang is expected to last for several more years, but upcoming consolidation moves make it difficult to predict which types of ships and which vessel sizes will be most affected.

16 Jan Tiedemann Senior Analyst Liner Shipping and Ports Alphaliner Hamburg GmbH (BRS Group) desk phone: mobile phone: Gertrudenstraße 10, Hamburg, Germany

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