MONTHLY MARKET OVERVIEW

Transcription

1 MONTHLY MARKET OVERVIEW 1 st 31 st January 219 SUMMARY OF CONTENT Value analysis Total second hand S&P activity Newbuilding activity Demolition activity Charter rate analysis +44 () vesselsvalue.com info@vesselsvalue.com

2 BULKER VALUES THROUGH JANUARY 219 BULKERS YEAR OF BUILD Values have softened in older Panamax and Supramax tonnage. The positive demand fundamentals seen in the Handy Bulk carrier market are being seen in the asset values for older ships. Meanwhile the fears of Chinese demand growth slowing have led to pessimism across most other market segments. Panamax and Supramax tonnage were hit the hardest as cargo volumes in this market lagged expectations. In the Capesize sector all eyes are on Brazilian ore exports for now, where the fallout from a mining disaster is expected to have lingering impact. This table shows the monthly % change in value from 1 st to the 31 st January 219 for Bulker vessels, by year of build. CAPE PMAX SUPRA HANDY DWT DWT DWT DWT % -.7% -2.8% -1.% % -2.9% -.9% % -3.% -.7% % -3.1% % -3.2% % -3.3% % -3.4% +.2% % -3.4% +.4% % -3.5% 55k +.6% % -2.6% 55k +.8% % -2.7% 55k +1.1% % -3.5% -2.8% 55k +1.4% % -3.7% -2.8% 55k +1.7% % -3.7% -2.8% 55k +1.9% % -3.9% -2.9% 55k +2.2% % -3.9% -2.9% 55k All data valid as of 4 th February 219 Page 2

3 BULKER VALUES THROUGH JANUARY 219 Capesize Panamax Values have remained stable. No sales have taken place this month. Older Panamax tonnage has softened. 7 sales have taken place this month. Hull 854 and 855 (84,7 DWT, Apr & Aug 219, Sasebo) sold for USD 32. mil each, VV value USD & mil respectively. Crystal Star (82,2 DWT, Jun 214, Sanoyas) sold to Chronos Shipping for USD 24.5 mil, VV value USD mil Supramax Values have softened. 11 sales have taken place this month. Paros Seas and Kavala Seas (56,8 DWT, Apr and Sept 211, Jiangdong) sold in an en bloc deal to Avic Leasing for USD 24.6 mil, VV en bloc value USD mil. Sea Confidence (52,7 DWT, Jun 25, Oshima) was sold for USD 9.5 mil, VV value USD 1.27 mil DD Due. Jin Zhou (5,2 DWT, Sept 21, Mitsui Ichihara) sold for USD 7.38 mil, VV Value USD 7.42 mil. Handy Values have firmed in older tonnages. 1 sales have taken place this month. Nanning (Open Hatch) and Ninghai (Open Hatch) (38,9-38,8 DWT, Mar & Apr 217, Huanghai Shipbuilding) sold in an en bloc deal to China Development Bank for USD 38. mil, VV en bloc value USD mil deal included TCB. Ocean Neptune (37,2 DWT, May 212, Hyundai Mipo) sold for USD 13.8 mil, VV value USD 13.9 mil. AEC Belief (33,5 DWT, Sep 24, Shin Kurushima) sold to Hai Nam for USD 9.2 mil, VV value USD 8.65 mil. All data valid as of 4 th February 219 Page 3

4 TANKER VALUES THROUGH JANUARY 219 TANKERS Values have firmed across all tonnages. Tanker asset values were increased across the board as strong earnings in late 218. Aframax tonnage saw the greatest increase, which is supported by supply and demand fundamentals seen in Trade data. This table shows the monthly % change in value from 1 st to the 31 st January 219 for Tanker vessels, by year of build. YEAR OF BUILD VLCC SUEZ AFRA LR1 MR DWT DWT DWT DWT DWT % +1.6% +2.8% % +1.5% % +1.4% % +1.4% % % +1.3% % % % % % k % k % +1.1% % 31k 1 +3.% +1.1% % 31k 1 +3.% +1.% % 31k +2.4% 1 +3.% +1.% % 31k +2.3% 1 +3.% +1.% % 31k +2.3% 1 +3.% +1.% 7k 45k % 31k +2.2% % +.9% 7k 45k % 35k +2.1% 155k +2.9% 15k +.9% 7k 45k All data valid as of 4 th February 219 Page 4

5 TANKER VALUES THROUGH JANUARY 219 VLCC Values have firmed in all tonnages. 1 sale has been confirmed this month. Pacific Glory (3, DWT, Nov 21, Imabari) sold to Kunlun Holdings for USD 22. mil, VV value USD 2.83 mil. Suezmax Values have firmed in older tonnages. 3 sales have been confirmed this month. Energy Trophy (157,5 DWT, Apr 218, Hyundai Samho Heavy Ind) sold to Vitol for USD 62.5 mil, VV value USD 63.5 mil Inc Charter. Milos (157,5 DWT, Nov 216, Sungdong) sold to Ocean Yield ASA for USD 56. mil, VV value USD mil BBB 13 years. Aframax Values have firmed in all tonnages. 3 sales have been confirmed this month. Phoenix Dream (15,8 DWT, Jan 25, Hyundai Heavy Ind) sold to Greek buyers for USD 13. mil, VV value USD mil. Blue River (16,6 DWT, Oct 22, Tadotsu Tsuneishi) sold to Stalwart Management for USD 11.5 mil, VV value USD mil. LR1 Values have firmed in all tonnages. 3 sales have been confirmed this month. Cielo Di Houston (75, DWT, Jan 219, Hyundai Vinashin) sold to Japanese buyers for USD 38.6 mil, VV Value USD mil BBB. MR Values have firmed in all tonnages. 5 Sales have been confirmed this month. Global Glory (38,8 DWT, Jan 219, Nantong Xiangyu) sold to China Huarong Financial for USD 57. mil, VV value USD mil Inc BBB. Green Hellas (5,9 DWT, Jul 214, Dae Sun) sold to Island Navigation for USD 26. mil, VV value USD mil. High Glow (46,8, Jul 26, Naikai Setoda) sold for USD 11.2 mil, VV value USD mil. All data valid as of 4 th February 219 Page 5

6 CONTAINER VALUES THROUGH JANUARY 219 CONTAINERS Older tonnage has softened across the sector particularly in Handy tonnage. Container asset values were floundering, particularly in the Handy market, while the downside for Feedermaxes was limited. Newer Post Panamax vessels held steady in January, resisting the monthly drop seen in other sizes and ages of container vessels. It is worth noting that Handy Container activity is concentrated in the Far East, while Post Panamax vessels have more global exposure, including Latin American service routes. This table shows the monthly % change in value from 1 st to the 31 st January 219 for Container vessels, by year of build. YEAR OF BUILD POST PMAX PMAX HANDY FMAX TEU TEU TEU TEU % -1.2% % -1.3% % -1.4% % -1.4% % -1.5% % -4.2% -1.6% % -1.1% -4.3% -1.6% % -1.4% -4.5% -1.6% % -1.7% -4.6% -1.8% % -2.% -4.8% -1.8% % -2.3% -4.9% -1.9% % -2.3% -5.2% -1.9% % -2.3% -5.2% -2.% % -1.3% -5.6% -2.% % -1.3% -5.7% -1.9% % -1.3% -5.8% -2.1% All data valid as of 4 th February 219 Page 6

7 CONTAINER VALUES THROUGH JANUARY 219 Post PMax Older Post Panamax values have softened. 4 sales have been confirmed this month. CSCL Spring, CSCL Summer, CSCL Winter and CSCL Bohai Sea (1,36 TEU, Jan 214, Jun 214, Dalian Shipbuilding) sold in an en bloc deal to Financial Products Group for USD 267. mil as part of a sale and leaseback deal, VV en bloc value USD mil. Panamax Older Panamax values have softened. No sales have been confirmed this month. Handy Values have softened. 3 sales have been confirmed this month. Alidra (1,644 TEU, Apr 2, Hanjin Heavy Industries) sold to Victoria Oceanway for USD 3.9 mil, VV value USD 3.67 mil. Feedermax Values have softened. 1 sale has been confirmed this month. Feedermax Munich Trader (1,8 TEU, Jun 1999, Santierul Naval Constantza) sold to GOTO Shipping International for USD 2.5 mil, VV value 2.32 mil. All data valid as of 4 th February 219 Page 7

8 LPG VALUES THROUGH JANUARY 219 LPG LEG and Semi Pressurised values have firmed across all tonnages. A mixed market for larger Gas Carriers with little significant movement in asset values. LEG and Semi Pressurised values have firmed across all tonnages. There is more optimism at the smaller end of the Gas Carrier spectrum for now. This table shows the monthly % change in value from 1 st to the 31 st January 219 for LPG vessels, by year of build. YEAR OF BUILD VLGC LGC MGC SP FR LARGE SP FR SMALL FULL PRESS LEG CBM CBM CBM CBM CBM CBM CBM k % -4.3% 12k k % -4.4% 12k k -.7% % -4.4% 12k k -.9% % -4.4% 12k k -.7% -1.% 3 +.1% +1.7% -4.3% +3.4% 12k % 84k -.8% -1.1% 3 +.2% +1.8% -4.1% +3.5% 12k % 82k -.8% -1.2% +.4% +2.% -3.9% +3.7% 12k % 82k -.8% -1.2% +.6% +2.3% -3.7% +3.8% 9k k -.7% -1.1% +1.% -3.5% +4.1% 9k 21 82k -.9% +1.4% +3.1% -3.% +4.5% 9k 29 82k +1.9% +3.5% -2.5% +5.1% 9k % 82k +.2% +4.1% -1.9% +5.7% 9k % 82k +.7% +.3% +4.8% -1.2% +6.% % 82k +1.2% +.9% +4.% +5.6% +6.8% % % +1.5% +5.% +6.6% +.4% +7.8% % % +6.% +7.7% +1.5% +8.9% All data valid as of 4 th February 219 Page 8

9 LPG VALUES THROUGH JANUARY 219 VLGC Values have firmed in older tonnages. 3 sales have been reported this month. Ocean Orchid (79,538 CBM, Mar 21, Kawasaki) sold to Middle Eastern buyers for USD 24. mil, VV value USD mil. Jag Vishnu (75,386 CBM, Mar 1994 Kawasaki) sold for USD 11. mil, VV value USD 1.91 mil. LGC Values have firmed in older tonnages. No sales have been confirmed this month. MGC Values softened in mid age tonnages. No sales have been confirmed this month. SP FR Values have firmed in older tonnages. No sales have been confirmed this month. Fully Pressurised Values softened in modern to mid age tonnages. No sales have been confirmed this month. LEG Values firmed across all tonnages. 8 sales have been reported this month. Evergas sold 8 vessels JS Greenstar, Greensky, Greensea, Greensun (12,5 CBM, May 213, Oct 213, Nantong CIMC) and JS Greensail, Greenspeed, Greensand, Greenstone ( 12, 5 CBM, May 214, Nov 214, Nantong CIMC) for a total of USD 2. mil, VV en bloc value USD mil. All data valid as of 4 th February 219 Page 9

10 OFFSHORE VALUES THROUGH JANUARY 219 OSV Values have softened across all PSV and AHTS/AHT sectors. The continued interest by energy majors in onshore production is being felt in the Offshore market. Asset values remain soft and have fallen across all PSV and AHTS/AHT sectors. This table shows the monthly % change in value from 1 st to the 31 st January 219 for OSV vessels, by year of build. YEAR OF BUILD LARGE PSV MEDIUM PSV SMALL PSV SUPER AHTS MEDIUM AHTS SMALL AHTS DWT DWT DWT BHP BHP BHP k 1.7k -5.1% -2.% 8.2k -2.% 5.5k k 1.7k -5.4% -2.4% 8.2k -2.4% 5.5k k 1.7k -5.9% -2.9% -2.9% k 1.7k -6.2% -3.3% -3.3% k 1.7k -6.6% -3.6% -3.6% k 3.4k 1.7k -6.9% -3.9% -3.8% k 1.7k -7.2% -4.2% -4.2% k -7.1% -4.1% -4.2% k -7.2% -4.4% -4.1% 5.1k k -7.1% -4.1% -4.2% 5.1k k -7.% -5.% -4.9% 5.1k k -6.7% -3.9% -5.1% 5.1k k -6.3% -3.3% -4.5% 5.1k k -6.3% -4.9% -2.4% 5k % 1.6k -6.7% -5.% -3.6% 5k % 1.6k -3.1% -4.7% 5k All data valid as of 4 th February 219 Page 1

11 OFFSHORE VALUES THROUGH JANUARY 219 PSV Values have remained stable across all sectors. 11 sales have been confirmed this month. Sunrise 2, Sunrise 3 and Sunrise 5 (3,8 DWT, Sep 219, Jan 22, Apr 22, COSCO Zhoushan) sold to SEACOR Marine Holdings in en bloc deal USD 46. mil, VV en bloc value mil. Energy Duchess and Energy Empress (4,2 DWT, Mar 219, Nantong Rainbow) sold to Golden Energy for USD 18.1 mil each, VV value USD and mil respectively. Toisa Independent (4,4 DWT, Mar 23, Appledore) sold to A1 Offshore for USD 1.85 mil, VV value USD 1.37 mil. AHTS & AHT Values have softened for all AHTS/AHT s. 1 AHTS sale has been confirmed this month. VOS Olympian (5,5 BHP, Jan 26, Jaya Asiatic) sold Laid Up with DD Due to Trinity Offshore for USD.7 mil, VV value USD.61 mil. All data valid as of 4 th February 219 Page 11

12 2 ND HAND S&P ACTIVITY JANUARY 219 S&P $ Value of 2 nd hand sales in January 219 vs January 218. Value (M USD) Jan 219 $525 Jan 218 $43 $391 $29 $245 $189 $18 $7 $88 $1 Bulker Tanker Container Gas OSV Total spending is up c.62% compared to January 218. Bulker spending shows a decrease of c.26% from January 218. Tanker spending has more than doubled compared to January 218. Container spending has almost tripled compared to January 218. Gas spending is over three times greater than in January 218. OSV spending has increased to USD 87.8 mil in January 219 from USD.5 mil in 218. S&P No. Number of 2 nd hand sales in January 219 vs January Jan 219 Jan 218 No. Vessels Bulker Tanker Container Gas OSV Total number of sales is down by c.21% compared to January 218. Number of Bulker sales shows a decrease of c.42% from January 218. Number of Tanker sales has remained the same as in January 218. Number of Container sales has dropped c.5% from January 218. Number of Gas sales has increased c.45% from January 218. Number of OSV sales are down c.16% from January 218. All data valid as of 4 th February 219 Page 12

13 NEWBUILDING ACTIVITY JANUARY 219 Newbuilding No. 8 7 Number of newbuilding orders placed in January 219 vs January Jan 219 Jan 218 No. New Buildings Bulker Tanker Container Gas OSV Total number of newbuild orders have dropped c.78% in January 219 compared to 218. AVIC Leasing has ordered 1 Post Panamax Bulkers (85, DWT, 221, Dalian Shipbuilding Industry) for an en bloc price of USD 285. mil, VV en bloc value USD mil. Sinokor has ordered 4 VLCCs (32, DWT, 221, Daewoo) for an en bloc price of USD 366. mil, VV en bloc value USD mil. Central Mare has ordered 4 MR2 Tankers (5, DWT, 22, Hyundai Mipo) for an en bloc price of USD 152. mil, VV en bloc value USD 146. mil. Celsius Shipping has ordered 2 Large LNG carriers (18, CBM, 221, Samsung) for an en bloc price of USD 37. mil, VV en bloc value USD 38.1 mil. All data valid as of 4 th February 219 Page 13

14 DEMOLITION ACTIVITY JANUARY 219 Demolition No. Number of demolition sales per ship type in January 219 vs January 218. No. Demo Sales Jan Jan Bulker Tanker Container Gas OSV Demolition deals are down 36% for January 219 compared to January 218. There has been a shift in the most popular types this January, Container deals have increased significantly, and Offshore deals have fallen compared to last January. Demolition Trend 5 Demolition price trend for Tanker Price India from 1 st January st January 219. Tanker scrap price 45 USD/LDT Mar 218 Jun 218 Sep 218 Dec 218 The declining sentiment continues but there have been more candidates for sale appearing towards the end of this month, as cash buyers are wanting to offload their vessels. With Bangladesh taking on most of the new tonnage. Price levels are very similar to January 218, showing there has been some stability over the last year in Sub Continent demolition prices. All data valid as of 4 th February 219 Page 14

15 CHARTER RATES Dry 3, 25, Baltic Exchange daily market spot rates for Capesize, Panamax, Supramax and Handy Bulkers from 1 st January st January 219. Source: Baltic Exchange Capesize Panamax Supramax Handy USD per day 2, 15, 1, 5, Mar 218 Jun 218 Sep 218 Dec 218 Wet 6, Capesize rates held steady through the first half of the month but weakening fundamentals hit the sector harder in the latter half of January. The collapse of a tailings dam in Brazil is expected to depress ton mile demand, along with the Chinese new year. Panamax, Supramax and Handysize rates have softened due in large part to lingering impact of US soybean export destruction at the end of 218 and weakening demand for raw materials in China. Baltic Exchange daily market spot rates for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax Tankers from 1 st January st January 219. Source: Baltic Exchange VLCC Suezmax Aframax 5, USD per day 4, 3, 2, 1, -1, Mar 218 Jun 218 Sep 218 Dec 218 The delivery of newbuild units into the spot market pool took the steam out of the end of year rally, Tankers saw in 218. OPEC and NOPEC commitment to supply restriction have depressed the total number of barrels to be lifting. Suezmax rates held onto returns longer than VLCCs as we entered 219, however there is an inevitable correlation that occurs in the crude tanker market, and the lustre on Suezmaxes wore off as well. Aframax rates trended downwards, and now face a significant headwind from Venezuela. Liftings of Aframax cargoes in the key Caribbean basin are expected to decline. All data valid as of 4 th February 219 Page 15

16 CHARTER RATES Container 16, 14, Contex daily time charter rates for Panamax, Handysize and Feedermax Containers from 1 st January st January 219. Source: Contex, VHSS Panamax Handy Feedermax 12, USD per day 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Mar 218 Jun 218 Sep 218 Dec 218 LPG Rates continued to soften for Panamax and Handy Container vessels throughout January, ships of this size faced lower Ton Mile Demand, while recycling activity has slowed. The cost to ship 4 containers as quoted by Freightos has held steady on most routes, a positive sign for term hire rates going forward. Feedermax values have remained stable during January in contrast to their larger cousins due to higher utilization. Fearnleys weekly market spot rates for VLGC, MGC and LEG Gas ships from 1 st January st January 219. Source: Fearnley's 1,, 9, VLGC MGC LEG 8, USD per month 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Mar 218 Jun 218 Sep 218 Dec 218 A finer balance between supply and demand in the VLGC markets has allowed for greater rate volatility in late 218, but rates are suffering from a normal seasonal down cycle. The long term rate trend suggests gradual upwards pressure on rates through February, but if PDH plants in China dial back US imports rates could stay stagnant. Rates remained stable for MGC and LEG vessels have held steady throughout the month in spite of a drop in Ton Mile Demand. A lack of fleet growth in the MGC space is helping to support returns as the fleet size has held steady since November. All data valid as of 4 th February 219 Page 16

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