Global Maritime Vessel & Trade Trends (Impacting North American Ports)

Transcription

1 2018 DDLA Annual Meeting Trump Ocean Club Panama City, Panama February 21, 2018 Global Maritime Vessel & Trade Trends (Impacting North American Ports)

2 Expect the Global Maritime Trade Volume to Double by 2030 In the next years world trade is projected to grow significantly. It is estimated that this growth will result in a doubling of seaborne trade volumes from 10 billion tons of cargo annually today to 20 billion tons of cargo around Source: Danish Maritime Forum, October 2016

3 Three Mega Trade Trends to 2030 Global population is likely to be 8.5 billion by 2030, with 96% of growth coming from developing countries. India will overtake China with the largest population. Global GDP could grow THREE TIMES within 20 years. The countries with the largest growth in per capita GDP will be China, Vietnam, India and Indonesia. Purchasing power in developing Asia will rise 8 times between 2010 and % HIGHER ENERGY DEMAND in China oil consumption could triple, overtaking the USA to become the largest oil consumer. The USA will remain the biggest natural gas consumer, while China will see the largest growth in natural gas consumption. Source: Global Marine Trends 2030 QinetiQ Lloyd s Register

4 DDLA 2018 Annual Meeting The Evolution of Today s Global Shipping Lanes

5 The Maritime Silk Road Replaced the Overland Silk Road as the Primary Trading Route Across Eurasia After the Tang Dynasties (618 to 907)

6 The Marine Silk Road was a Precursor to: Today s modern supply chain logistics, distribution and shipping transportation networks

7 90% of Global Trade is Carried Out by Shipping The Majority of Today s Ocean Trade is Conducted on the Marine Silk Road

8 The World s Primary Shipping Route: The Marine Silk Road

9 Maersk s Global Trading Routes Today

10 Indian Ocean Electric Blue Shipping Lane Trails From the Marine Silk Road

11 The World s Largest Ports Are Connected Via The Marine Silk Road Where are the Biggest Ports?

12 The On Earth, World s There Largest Are Ports More Are People Connected Living Inside This Via Circle The Marine Than Outside Silk Road the Circle

13 NASA s Population Density Imagery A standard dot density map of population (each dot represents 50,000 people).

14 Global Shipping Routes Plotted by AIS GPS Today s Busiest Shipping Routes: (1) Panama Canal, (2) Suez Canal, (3) Offshore China Source: Wired Science January 2010 Journal of the Royal Society: Interface

15 DDLA 2018 Annual Meeting International External Industry Pressures Driving Today s Logistics

16 More than 98% of everything we consume, wear, eat, drive and construct is brought to us via ships through the North American port system.

17 Growth in GDP and World Trade World trade will grow by 73% in the next 15 years. With merchandise trade volumes in 2025 hitting $43.6 trillion compared to today s $27.2 trillion CAGR = 4.5% Source: Oxford Economics 2013

18 World Trade s Share of the Economy Grows Again % INCR = 37% Source: IHS Global Insight World Trade Service

19 Long Term GDP Annual Growth Rates 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% World United States Canada Source: OECD Economic Forecast

20 DDLA 2018 Annual Meeting International Maritime Cargo Demand & Logistics Trends

21 2025 World Container Port Market Demand (Millions of TEUs) 2009 Recession 260% Increase Source: Drewry Shipping Consultants

22 Southeast Asian Manufacturing Centroid Shift Current Inbound US Cargo Flow U.S. Intermodal Rail Flow Western Centroid Shift With Manufacturing Westbound Centroid All Water/Suez Shifts Flow Into Vietnam and/or India, The Westbound North Intermodal American U.S. Flow East Coast will See Dramatically More Westbound Suez Traffic

23 Suez Canal s $8.5 Billion Expansion Plan (A New $4 Billion 45-mile-long parallel channel and Global Logistics Park) 3 Daily Convoys: 2 Northern Convoys 1 Southern Convoy

24 The Suez Canal s $8.5 Billion Expansion of the Canal Completed September 2015 New 45-mile-long parallel channel cutting waiting times to transit by 3 hrs. from 11 hrs.

25 Dredging 180 Million Cubic Meters (35-kilometers-long and 24-meters-deep) Shipping Route in Less than One Year

26 Egyptian Jet Fighter Escort Selfie (Taken with the New Expanded Suez Canal in the Background) Source: Photo Courtesy of MIRASCO, August 2015

27 The Number of Ships Able to Navigate the Suez Canal Simultaneously Has Increased from 23 to 97, Thus Doubling the Suez Canal Capacity by 2023

28 DDLA 2018 Annual Meeting The Continuing Asian Import Trade Challenge

29 Container Transhipment World Records Of the 10 busiest ports in the world, Nine are in Asia, of the top 10, Six are on the Chinese mainland The Port of Shanghai is No. 1, and The Port of Singapore is No.2 These Two Ports are Larger Than All North American Ports Combined

30 Shanghai International Shipping Center Yangshan Deep Port & Logistics Park New Port City New Logistics Park 20 Mile New Port Access Bridge Constructed in 3 yrs 54 New Berths

31 Shanghai International Shipping Center Yangshan Deep Port - 20 Mile Bridge Access Second Longest Ocean Bridge in the World

32 Shanghai Yangshan Deep-Water Harbour Yangshan Deep Port 54 Berths East China Sea

33 Shanghai International Shipping Center Yangshan Deep Port & Logistics Park Shanghai Port Set a 2011 Record by Handling over 30 million TEUs

34 DDLA 2018 Annual Meeting Maritime Vessel Technology Trends: Emergence of the Neo-Panamax Vessel

35 40 Years of Container Ship Size Growth (TEU Capacity) ULCS CONTAINER SHIP Circa 2020 NEO PANAMAX As of June 2016 OLD PANAMAX Up to June 2016 Source: HIS Maritime & Trade Historical Vessel and Orderbook Data

36 50 Years of Container Vessel Evolutionary Growth Old Panamax: 4,800 TEUs Neo-Panamax: 12,600 TEUs Near Term Mega Vessel: 22,000 TEUs Source: Allianz Global Corporate & Specialty - Data: Container-Transportation.com

37 Largest Container Ship Yet to Call on the Port of Virginia May 8, 2017 COSCO Development Container Ship 13, 092 TEUs

38 May 8, 2017 Largest Container Vessel to Call at the Port of Virginia COSCO Development Container Ship 13, 092 TEUs Containership COSCO DEVELOPMENT at 1,200 feet long and 158 feet wide, It is 100-plus feet longer that the U.S. Navy s newest aircraft carrier the Gerald R. Ford

39 Relative Size of the Mega Container Vessel COSCO DEVELOPMENT Largest Ship to Call at the Port of Virginia, May 2017 COSCO Develop

40 Megamax Containership Deliveries of 18,000 to 22,000 TEUs 2018 First delivery of a 22,000 TEU ship - The highest year on record for ULCV deliveries million TEU booked for delivery.

41 Vessel Sharing Alliances Were Restructured Late April 2017 (Ocean Alliance to Dominate the Overall Trans-Pacific Trade) US ports will face unprecedented operational challenges. Three alliances will control 91 % of the US trade volume Source: Alphaliner JOC - IHS Maritime & Trade

42 The Biggest Ship Ever in San Francisco Bay CMA CGM Benjamin Franklin 1,300 ft. LOA, 177 ft. beam, 18,000 TEUs Source: CMA CGM, The SF Chronicle

43 The Biggest Ship Ever in San Francisco Bay CMA CGM Benjamin Franklin 1,300 ft. LOA, 177 ft. beam, 18,000 TEUs Source: CMA CGM, The SF Chronicle

44 South Korea s Samsung Heavy Industries: OOCL Mega Ships 21,100 TEU to be delivered November 2017 Six ordered at 21,100 TEU, total cost of US$950 million. The contract also includes options for six additional units.

45 Maersk s Triple E Container Ship 1.5 times the Size of the NEW Panama Canal Wide Body Shallow Draft 18,000 TEU Vessel (Same Design Draft of the 8,000 TEU Susan Maersk) (Design Draft of 14.5 Meters = feet)

46 MSC Orders 11 New 22,000-TEU Vessels CMA-CGM Orders 9 New 22,000-TEU Vessels FUEL COST OPTIONS: $136 million per vessel if a conventional fuel system with scrubbers is chosen, or about $154 million should a dual-fuel alternative which would allow for the use of LNG be selected instead. Source: American Shipper - Lloyd s List

47 CMA CGM Orders 9 New 22,000-TEU Vessels CMA CGM Group s US$1.5 billion order for nine LNG Powered 22,000-TEUs container ships for delivery from the end of Asia-Europe trade may be set for 24,000 TEU ships from 2019 Source: American Shipper - Lloyd s List

48 Next Generation: Suezmax 26,000 TEUs 26 Bays, 25 Rows - Ultra Large Container Ships (ULCS) With a Beam of 25 rows & Length of 26 bays (LOA: 430 meters 1,411 feet) the ULCS capacity could reach 26,300 TEU. Port of Antwerp: New Terminals in Europe are using 26,000 TEU design vessels Source: DNV GL in-house methodology - Concept Design Assessment

49 DDLA 2018 Annual Meeting Mega Container Ship Design & Dangerous Sea States

50 The Rogue Wave (Predicting Freak Colossal Episodic Waves)

51 Largest Vessel Recorded Rogue Wave Height: 98 feet high, from crest to trough. The biggest recorded by a buoy was 106 feet high during the 2007 typhoon Krosa near Taiwan

52 100,000 Deadweight Ton Liquid Bulk Tanker Fights for Survival in 60 foot Waves Current Design Vessel Criteria: 56 foot wave above the Vessel Waterline (from wave trough to crest)

53 Global Wave Model GROW2012: 5,000 instances of extreme sea conditions where waves were higher than 12 meters (39 feet). Highest average waves were more than 18 meters (59 feet) and occurred in the North Atlantic and North Pacific oceans.

54 Rena Containership Wedged on a Reef in the Bay of Plenty, New Zealand - October 2011

55 8,000-TEU MOL Ship Sank in Bad Weather, Indian Ocean 200 Nautical Miles Off Yemen

56 DDLA 2018 Annual Meeting Examples of Emerging Port Technologies to Improve Port Performance

57 Vessel Size Expansion - Terminal Impacts (Port Terminal Infrastructure & Equipment Geometry Impacts) Boom Outreach Increased Terminal Throughput Super Post Panamax 18,000 to 22,000 TEU Storage Area Impacts Height Above Deck New Panamax (2014/15) 12,600 TEU Current Panamax 4,800 TEU Depths 48 to 54 ft Source: Georgia Ports Authority and Vickerman & Associates

58 Increased STS Gage Improves Stability, Reduces Wheel Loads, Decongests the Quay Operations and Improves Productivity Tandem STS Operations Tandem Lift 40 ft. STS Gage Req. in Ft m 150 STS Gage Source: Liftech Consultants Inc.

59 Terminal 3 Jebel Ali Dubai Container Terminal (U.A.E.) (STS Gantry Crane Gage=42 m = ft) Approaching 150 ft. Gage The remote STS operation at the DP World s T3 Terminal has demonstrated that the operator s views in the control room from crane-mounted cameras are better and more comprehensive than those from the crane cab. The cranes operate fully automated once their spreaders reach a predetermined height above the shipboard stack profile. STS Crane Operations from Remote Control Room

60 The Energing 150 ft. Gage Semi-Automated STS Gantry Cranes Considerations Consider spreader capability to lift tandem, triple, quad & 6 pack loads Consider / Evaluate Dual Hoist STS Gantry Cranes with Cable Reel Flexible Power:

61 Emerging Automated Mooring System Advantages MoorMaster Automated Mooring System Eliminates the need for mooring lines with automated vacuum pads that moor and release vessels in seconds. Dramatically improves safety and operational efficiency, Optimizes the ship-to-shore interface, and in many cases enables Port terminals to make infrastructure savings. Port of Salalah, Oman has successfully used a vacuum mooring system for years. The vacuum system extends from the quay and locks onto the ship.

62 Emerging Automated Mooring System Advantages Cavotec Published Benefits 1. Moor vessels in 30 seconds, detach in 10 seconds. 2. Reduced OPEX, (fuel burn, manpower operational time and maintenance) 3. Increased container throughput due to reduced vessel motion, (berth creep, long waves, passing vessels, etc.). 4. Improved STS crane productivity. 5. Improved operator and ship crew safety % reduction in emissions during mooring due to reduced tug and vessel engine usage.

63 DDLA 2018 Annual Meeting North American Inland Waterway Vessel Evolution Emerging Container On Barge (COB)

64 Deck Barge Loaded with Containers Hopper Barge Loaded with Containers Source: USDOT Maritime Administration MARAD

65 Proposed Domestic AMH/Short Sea Container Services Proposed New England Marine Highway Project's articulated tug barge short sea container service connecting New York City and Portland, Maine TEUs Proposed MARAD ATB Ro/Con HEC Design TEUs, Design Draft 14.1 ft. 14 Knots

66 American Patriot Holdings, LLC (APH) Prototype Container Vessel A State of the Art Hull Design to Ensure Optimal Speed in All River Conditions Utilizing LNG as Main Propulsion Fuel

67 American Patriot Container Transport, LLC. (APCT)Vessel Fleet Characteristics LOA Feet Beam Feet TEU Capacity Vessel Drafts ft. 9.6 ft., & 10.0 ft ft. 9.6 ft., & 10.0 ft ft. 9.6 ft., & 10.0 ft ft. 9.6 ft., & 10.0 ft.

68 American Patriot Holdings, LLC (APH) Prototype Container Vessel A State of the Art Hull Design to Ensure Optimal Speed in All River Conditions Utilizing LNG as Main Propulsion Fuel coupled with the Patented Z-Wake Bow Design.

69 Inland Waterway Vessel Transfer to Ocean Container Transport 1824 TEUs to 3244 TEUs Commercially Viable TEUs Are the Cargo & Quantity Viable?

70 DDLA 2018 Annual Meeting New Era of LNG Vessels is on the Horizon: LNG will be the Fuel of the Future for Shipping

71 TOTE Orders Two New LNG Powered Container Ships & Two RO/RO Conversions: Largest LNG Powered Ships in the World Two 839-foot Orca-class vessels to liquefied natural gas-diesel dual fuel operation for Seattle-Alaska service and two 764-foot new-builds for the Florida-Puerto Rico trade

72 LNG Vessel Bunkering: North American Ports Are Not Prepared

73 DDLA 2018 Annual Meeting Panama Canal Expansion: Recent New Capacity is Not Sufficient for 2030 Trade Volumes

74 Panama Canal Expansion Project Inauguration - June 26, The first ceremony began on the Atlantic side at the new Agura Clara Locks, followed by the new Cocoli Locks on the Pacific side

75 Panama Canal Route

76 Panama Canal Historical Tonnage Traffic Source: ACP Data

77 The United States Took Over the Original Canal Construction Project from the French in 1904 and completed it in Source: ACP Expansion Project, Circle of Blue January 27, 2015

78 The Panama Canal Circa 1914

79 Panama Canal Pre-June 2016 (Old Panamax)

80 The Panama Canal Currently Accounts for 3% of the Volume of Global Trade, this Share Will Increase to 6-7 % over the next decade Source: ACP Expansion Project, Circle of Blue January 27, 2015

81 Panama Canal Third Lane Expansion New Lane Existing Lanes

82 Panama Canal Third Lane Expansion

83 Panama Canal Third Lane Expansion Water-Saving Basin Reservoir System

84 A $5.25 Billion Investment in a 3 rd Set of Locks Equating to 16% of Panama s National GDP Source: ACP Expansion Project, Circle of Blue January 27, 2015

85 Panama Canal Third Lane Expansion Capabilities 2011: 4,800 TEU 2016: 12,600 TEU Source: ACP Expansion Project

86 Panama Canal Third Lane Expansion Capabilities Neo-Panamax: 12,600 TEUs (1,201 feet) (49.2 feet) Old Panamax: 4,800 TEUs (39 feet) (965 feet) Source: ACP Expansion Project, Circle of Blue January 27, 2015

87 Largest Neo-panamax Containership to Transit the New Panama Canal August 2017 (OCEAN Alliance s weekly South Atlantic Express (SAX) service) CMA CGM s Theodore Roosevelt: TEU Allowance: 14,855 TEUs Vessel LOA: meters (1, ft.) Vessel Beam: 48.2 meters ( ft.) Vessel Max. Draft: 16 meters (52.49 ft.)

88 The Recent Mega Container Vessels are Too Large for the New Panama Canal Third Lane Expansion Source: A.P. Moeller-Maersk, Panama Canal Authority

89 DDLA 2018 Annual Meeting Emerging New Caribbean Transhipment Center (Large Ship to Feeder Vessel Transfer)

90 The Panama Canal Expansion Will Move the Caribbean Transhipment Center Point to Panama

91 New Panama Canal Pacific Entrance Ports More Capacity than all of the Port of Los Angeles

92 New Panama Canal Atlantic Entrance Port More Capacity than all of the Port of Houston

93 North American Vessel Transshipment: (Globally Transshipment accounts between 25 and 50% of all container volumes In the US it s < 15%) Feeder Ship Mother Ship Feeder Ship Transhipment Hub Port Induced Transshipment/Feeder Ship Operations

94 DDLA 2018 Annual Meeting Large Container Vessel Market Penetration into the US Midwest

95 New State of Marine & Intermodal Competition Mississippi River Source: NW Seaport Alliance Strategic Business Plan, May 6, 2015

96 US Market Penetration Via Panama Canal Expansion (Economies of Scale) 46 % Penetration, Before 2016 Via All Water, 4,500 TEU Vessels 63 % Penetration, After 2016 Via All Water, 8,000 TEU Vessels 75 % Penetration, 2018 & Beyond Via All Water & Pendulum Service 14,500 TEU Vessels Source: Potential Effects of the Panama Canal Expansion on the Texas Transportation System

97 New Container Port Battleground Region (Representing 15% of the US GDP) Source: Boston Consulting Group & C. H. Robinson

98 North American Cropland Intensity (Acres of Cropland as a percent of Land Area) Battleground Region

99 Dramatic US Market Penetration Panama Canal Economies of Scale with permit deeper market penetration into the US Midwest West Coast Cost Advantage East/Gulf Coast Cost Advantage The Panama Cost Advantage Canal Area will prove to be a strong contender West of for the Asian MS River trade serving not only the US East Coast, but ALL of the Gulf and the Most of the Midwest by Source: Potential Effects of the Panama Canal Expansion on the Texas Transportation System, Texas DOT, Cambridge Systematics October 2011

100 DDLA 2018 Annual Meeting Trump Team s Initial 50 Infrastructure Projects Priority List

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102 Trump Team s Infrastructure Priority List 50 projects as public-private partnerships, with half the money coming from private investment. Includes a $10 billion proposal to replace the nation s radarbased air traffic control system with one called NextGen, 13 projects for Clean Energy or Water 11 Port/Inland Waterway Projects 13 Freight/Highway Projects including 6 Bridge Projects The projects have to meet specific criteria: A national security or public safety emergency. Shovel-Ready, with at least 30 percent of initial design and engineering work complete. Direct job creator. Project with the potential for increased U.S. manufacturing

103 ASCE 2017 Report Card for America s Infrastructure Ports: C+ $4.6 Cost to Improve Inland Waterways: D Roads: D Failure to Act: It Costs Each US Family $3,400 per year

104 International Gross Fixed Capital Formation as a Percent of GDP (US is 32 nd in the World - Below OECD Nations) Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)

105 DDLA 2018 Annual Meeting Thank You