Panama Canal Update & Outlook. Jorge L. Quijano Administrator / CEO Panama Canal Authority

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1 Panama Canal Update & Outlook Jorge L. Quijano Administrator / CEO Panama Canal Authority Georgia Foreign Trade Conference February 2, 2015

2 Agenda Macro Economic Information Panama Canal Traffic Indicators Progress of the Expansion Program Impact of the Expansion Business Initiatives

3 (percentage) (percentage) World Real GDP Growth average= 3.3% EIU IHS Global Insight IMF (MER) World Bank Growth for 2015 remains divided. The US economy has rebounded and it is expected to grow, while the Euro Zone, China, Japan, and Russia experience slow or zero growth. In 2015, the world economy is expected to grow on average by 3.3 percent compared with 2.8 percent in 2014 Source: EIU Jan 2015, IHS Global Insight Jan 2015, IMF (MER)Jan 2015, World Bank Jan 2015, OECD Nov 2014 International Trade Growth average= 4.4% Trade is being hit by a weak global demand, especially from the Euro Zone and Asia. Yet, most countries are gaining stability as governments reduce spending and improve budgets. On average, global trade is expected to grow by 4.4 percent in 2015 compared to 3.7 percent in EIU WTO IMF World Bank OECD IHS Global Insight Source: EIU Jan 2015, WTO Oct 2014, World Bank Jan 2015, OECD Nov14, IMF Jan 2015, IHS Global Insight January 2015

4 (percentage) (percentage) China Real GDP Growth average= 7.1% EIU IHS Global Insight IMF World Bank Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China Oct14, EIU Jan 2015, IHS Global Insight January 2015, IMF Jan 2015, World Bank Jan 2015, OECD OECD China s economy is expected to grow close to 7.1 percent in 2015.compared with 7.2 percent in 2014, the weakest in 24 years. This is mainly the result of weak global demand. The government has argued that this will bring stability as it continues to change internal markets US Real GDP Growth average= 3.3% EIU IHS Global Insight IMF World Bank Consensus WSJ OECD The US economy is expected to expand by 3.3 percent in 2015 reductions in unemployment, increases in consumption and better energy prices. The US will be the growth engine of the global economy. Source: BEA Jun13, EIU Jan 2015, IHS Global Insight Jan 2015, Consensus WSJ Aug14, IMF Jan 2015, World Bank Jan 2015, OECD Nov14, Survey Phil Fed Aug14

5 Global Outlook Economist Intelligence Unit January Real GDP growth (%) World US Japan Eurozone China World Trade Growth (%) Goods IHS Global Insight January 2015 United States: Real GDP growth (% change) Consumer prices (% change) Unemployment rate (%) Total Industrial production ( % change) Light vehicle sales (Million units) Housing starts (Million units) Total Consumption (% change) World Trade Growth (%)

6 Agenda Macro Economic Information Panama Canal Traffic Indicators Progress of the Expansion Program Impact of the Expansion Business Initiatives

7 Transits Transits vs Panama Canal Tonnage PC/UMS tonnage in millions 35,000 30,000 FY FY 2014 Average Tonnage per Commercial Transit ,000 4,832 9,931 18,940 27,286 FY 1955 FY 1975 FY 1995 FY ,000 15,000 13, , , Fiscal Year

8 The Panama Canal Trade and Main Users Total cargo movements million long tons 69% of Canal cargo traffic originates in, or is destined to, the United States Total Cargo Movement FY 2014 USERS FY 2013* FY 2014* 2014 (%) United States China Chile Japan Colombia South Korea * Measured in Million of Long Tons

9 Main Routes - FY 2014 Total: M (long tons) Asia - East Coast US 86.2M West Coast South America - East Coast US 33.4M West Coast South America - Europe 12.6M West Coast Central America East Coast US 12.0M South America Intercoastal 10.9M

10 Panama Canal Tonnage by Market Segments Container % % % Dry Bulk % % % Vehicle Carriers/RoRo % % % Chemical Tankers Crude/Product Tankers % % % % % % FY FY 2014 LPG % 2% 1% Passengers Refrigerated % 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% General Cargo Others % 5.3 2% 6.8 2% 3% 3% 3% Millions of PCUMS tons

11 Main U.S Ports Served by the Panama Canal Seattle Tacoma Portland Oakland Los Angeles/Long Beach New York/New Jersey Philadelphia Baltimore Norfolk Wilmington, NC Charleston Savannah Jacksonville Houston Port Everglades Miami Source: ACP/MEMN, CY 2014.

12 Liner Services through the Panama Canal calling at the Port of Savannah Vostochniy, Kobe Qingdao Busan Shanghai YantianNingbo Hong Kong Shenzhen Kaohsiung Taipei Tokyo Yokohama Tacoma Oakland Los Angeles Ensenada New York Philadelphia Baltimore Willmington Savannah Charleston Jacksonville Port Everglades Halifax Kingston CCT, Colon Cristobal Manzanillo Balboa Thamesport Bremerhaven Tilbury Hamburg Rotterdam Antwerp Dunkirk Le Havre Guayaquil Papeete Noumea Lautoka Melbourne Sidney AucklandTauranga Napier Northeast Asia is the most important trade lane for Savannah s imports and exports. Source: ACP MEMN, Compair Data, January services 2.1 Million TEU 98 vessels deployed

13 Panama Canal Share of US Imports through East Coast Ports New York/New Jersey 22% Norfolk 15% Charleston 21% Savannah 37% Panama Canal TEU Market Share* 32.6% Houston 23% Port Everglades 5% Miami 28% * Estimated share of Panama Canal TEU over all reported loaded TEU imports on East Coast ports for calendar year Source: Panama Canal Datawarehouse, Port Tracker January Prepared by MEMN January 2015.

14 Container Cargo Market Share Northeast Asia to the United States East Coast U.S. Intermodal System Suez Canal Panama Canal Source: ACP/ MEMN, October 2014.

15 Container Cargo Market Share Northeast Asia to the United States East Coast 90% 70% US Intermodal System 86% 83% 77% 72% 65% 59% 50% 42% 39% 32% 29% 30% 30% 29% 29%29% 30% 10% -10% % Panama Canal 90% 70% Suez Canal 70% 50% 30% 10% 34% 38% 21% 23% 11% 15% 52% 50% 52% 52% 57% 45% 42% 40% 39% 50% 30% 10% -10% 3% 2% 2% 5% 1% 3% 16% 19% 11% 13% 6% 25% 29% 31% 32% % Source: ACP/ MEMN, October 2014.

16 Agenda Macro Economic Information Panama Canal Traffic Indicators Progress of the Expansion Program Impact of the Expansion Business Initiatives

17 Panama Canal Expansion

18 Expansion Program Components M m 3 Post Panamax Locks - Atlantic Increase the maximum operating level of Gatun Lake Present Locks Deepening and widening of the Atlantic Entrance Deepening and widening of the Gatun Lake Channels and Deepening of the Culebra Cut 26.7 m 27.1 m Access Channel Post Panamax Locks Pacific Present Locks 8.7 M m 3 Pacific Access Channel to the new Locks 49 M m 3 New Pacific Locks Deepening and Widening of Pacific Entrance

19 Locks Design and Construction Excavated and dredged volume: 42.2 M m3 / 48.7 M m3 Concrete Volume: 4.2 M m3 / 4.4 M m3 Actual 82% 0% 50% 100%

20 1939 Excavations Pacific Site

21 100 % Concrete Progress - Pacific Site 100% 100 % 99 % 93% COMPLETED CONCRETE 98% 99% 97% 97% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% 99% 91% UPPER CHAMBER MIDDLE CHAMBER LOWER CHAMBER Chambers Lock Heads Wing Walls Valve Structure Trifurcations

22 Locks Pacific Site

23 Locks Pacific Site

24 1939 Excavations Atlantic Site

25 Concrete Progress - Atlantic Site 99 % 100 % 100 % 100 % 97% COMPLETED CONCRETE TAPON NATURAL T. KING LOWER CHAMBER MIDDLE NICHO CHAMBER 4 NICHO 3 UPPER NICHO CHAMBER 2 NICHO 2 ALETA DE ENTRADA 99 % 99% CANAL DE APROXIMACIÓN CAMARA INFERIOR CAMARA MEDIA CAMARA SUPERIOR TINA INFERIOR TINA MEDIA 99% 99% 90% 100 % 100 % 100% 100 % 100% 100% 100% ATAGUÍA 100% 1 100% 99% 94% 91% TINA SUPERIOR Chambers Lock Heads Wing Walls Valve Structure Trifurcations

26 Locks Atlantic Site

27 Locks Atlantic Site

28 Locks Atlantic Site

29 Locks Atlantic Site

30 Lock Gate Arrival 1 st Shipment 2 nd Shipment 3 rd Shipment

31 Lock Gate Arrival - Transport and Installation

32 Gates - Transport And Installation

33 Locks Atlantic Site

34 Gate Installation

35 Gate Installation

36 Pacific Access Channel Phase 4 21 M m3 excavated / 26 M m3 Actual 79% 0% 50% 100%

37 Pacific Access Channel Phase 4 Post-Panamax navigational channel Miraflores Lake 9 m

38 Pacific Access Channel Phase 4

39 Pacific Access Channel Phase 4

40 Gatun Lake and Gaillard Cut Dredging Areas Bohío Actual 100% Lago Gatún Volumen: 1,786K m 3 / 1,786K m 3 Buena Vista Actual 100% Volumen: 913K m 3 / 913K m 3 San Pablo Actual 100% Volumen: 4,211K m 3 / 4,211K m 3 Juan Grande Gatún Actual Volumen: 146K m 3 /146K m 3 100% Barro Colorado Actual 100% Volumen: 1,450K m 3 / 1,451K m 3 Gamboa Actual 100% Peña Blanca Volumen: 3,521 m 3 / 3,521K m 3 Actual Volumen: 1,116K m 3 / 1,116K m 3 Tabernilla 100% Chagres Crossing Actual Volumen: 244K m Gamboa 3 / 244K m 3 100% Actual 100% Volumen: 1,910K m 3 / 1,910K m 3 Mamey Actual 98% 100% Volume: 2,596 K m 3 / 2,596K m 3 Actual 100% 0% 50% 100%

41 Widening: of 198 m to 530 m (navigation channel) Channel width to 300 m (North access channel) Extension 13.8 Km. Award: September 25, 2009 Amount: B/. 144,236, Conclusion of contract: April 25, 2013 Actual 100% 0% 50% 100%

42 Atlantic Entrance Deepening & Widening (17.6 Mm3)

43 Pacific entrance deepening and widening (8.7 Mm3) Amount: B/. 177,500, Contractor: Dredging International

44 Raising The Maximum Operating Level Of Gatun Lake Extension of Gatun Spillway gates New submersible hydraulic cylinders Actual 94% 0% 50% 100%

45 Volumes of excavation and dredging Original 200 Current Expansion In million of cubic meters 78%

46 Volume of concrete for the construction of the Locks Existing Locks New Locks 0 Original Construction 3.4 Current Panama Canal Expansion 4.4 In million cubic meters 129%

47 Agenda Macro Economic Information Panama Canal Traffic Indicators Progress of the Expansion Program Impact of the Expansion Business Initiatives

48 Economies of Scale

49 Dimensions of Locks and Vessels Existing Locks Max Vessel: 4,400 TEU s 33.5 m (110 ) 32.3 m (106 ) m (39.5 ) 55 m (180 ) 12.8 m (42 ) Beam 49 m (160 ) 18.3 m (60 ) 15.2 m (50 ) New Locks Max Vessel Size: 13,000 14,000 TEU s

50 Benefits from Transportation Cost Savings EXPORTERS SHIPPING LINES IMPORTERS CONSUMERS Economies of scale - Efficiencies in the supply chain - Connectivity

51 Panama: The Transportation and Logistics Hub of the Americas Connectivity Achieving the maximum potential of its geographical position Panama s Maritime Hub 144 trade routes 1700 ports 160 countries Panama s Air Hub 69 destinations 30 countries

52 Container Vessels 13,000 to 14,000 TEU New volumes from: - Latin America Recover market from: - West Coast United States Dry Bulk Up to 170,000 DWT - Coal from Colombia - Metalurgical coal from Vancouver - Iron Ore from Brazil in Minicapesize (85, ,000 DWT) Liquid Bulk Up to 150,000 DWT - Tankers - Petroleum Products LNG/LPG - LNG Up to 177,000m 3 and VLGC - Suez Canal

53 Full Containership Services Northeast Asia East Coast of the United States Vancouver Seattle Vancouver Tilbury Rotterdam Antwerp Hamburg Bremerhaven Tacoma Halifax Qingdao Shanghai Ningbo Inchon Yokohama Masan Kobe Nagoya Oakland Port Hueneme Long Beach Galveston New York Newark Baltimore Charleston Jacksonville Brunswick Hong Kong Chiwan Singapore Muara Jakarta Fremantle Taipei Kaohsiung Manila Darwin Brisbane Port Kembla Melbourne Noumea 70 Days Roundtrip. Weighted Avg. Total Cost per TEU 5,000 TEU $1,356 8,000 TEU $1,200 12,000 TEU $1,095 Auckland Tauranga Napier Lázaro Cardenas Veracruz Pto. Quetzal Miami Freeport P. Caucedo Kingston San Juan PR Cartagena P. Cabello Manzanillo Balboa Buenaventura Guayaquil Callao Vitoria Santos Antofagasta Paranagua San Antonio Rio Grande Zarate 84 Days Roundtrip. Weighted Avg. Total Cost per TEU 5,000 TEU $1,430 8,000 TEU $1,254 12,000 TEU $1,138 Roundtrip: Panama Canal: 22,000 nm Suez Canal: 26,600 nm Approx. 14 days less Savings of 4,600 nm 2 Vessels less required Average roundtrip utilization: 60% full TEU Headhaul: 80% full TEU Backhaul: 40% full TEU

54 Dry Bulk Grain Trade Grain Belt New Orleans, USA to Dalian, China Vancouver Seattle Tórshavn Oslo Norway Denmark Vancouver London Rotterdam Antwerp Dalian Inchon Qingdao Yokohama Masan Shanghai Kobe Nagoya Ningbo Hong Kong Taipei Chiwan Kaohsiung 30 Days 55K DWT: $103/MT 95K DWT: $98/MT San Francisco Los Angeles Boston New York Baltimore Charleston New Orleans Manila Santa Marta Singapore Muara Jakarta Fremantle Darwin Brisbane Port Kembla Noumea 45 Days 55K DWT: $77/MT 95K DWT: $67/MT 61 Days 55K DWT: $86/MT 95K DWT: $73/MT Melbourne Auckland Tauranga Napier Panama Canal 10,069 nm Sources: ACP Route Choice Model Savings of 5,284 nm Approx. 16 days less Cape of Good Hope 15,353 nm

55 Vehicle Carrier Services Northeast Asia East Coast of the United States Vancouver Seattle Vancouver Tilbury Hamburg Bremerhaven Rotterdam Antwerp Inchon Qingdao Masan Shanghai Kobe Nagoya Ningbo Hong Kong Taipei Chiwan Kaohsiung Manila Singapore Muara 32 Days Shipping Cost 6,500CEU $454/CEU 8,000CEU $440/CEU Tacoma Halifax New York Oakland Newark Baltimore Port Hueneme Charleston Long Beach Jacksonville Brunswick Galveston Miami Freeport Veracruz P. Caucedo Lázaro Cardenas Kingston San Juan PR Pto. Quetzal Cartagena P. Cabello Manzanillo Balboa Buenaventura Guayaquil Jakarta Darwin Brisbane Noumea Callao Antofagasta San Antonio Vitoria Santos Paranagua Rio Grande 40 Days Shipping Cost 6,500CEU $532/CEU 8,000CEU $512/CEU Fremantle Port Kembla Zarate Melbourne Auckland Tauranga Napier Panama Canal 10,859 nm Approx. 8 days less Savings of 3,631 nm Suez Canal 14,490 nm

56 Lower 48 States Shale Plays Source: Energy Information Administration, May 9, 2011.

57 LNG Trade U.S. Gulf to Fukuoka, Japan 32 Days Shipping Cost LNG 155,000 m 3 $47.56/m 3 22 Days Shipping Cost LNG 155,000 m 3 $33.7/m 3 Panama Canal: 9,623 nm Savings of 4,494 nm Approx. 10 days less Suez Canal: 14,117 nm

58 LPG Trade U.S. Gulf to Chiba, Japan 40 Days Shipping Cost LGC $228/MT VLGC $140/MT 25 Days Shipping Cost LGC $148/MT VLGC $90/MT Panama Canal 9,229 nm Savings of 5,754 nm Approx. 15 days less Cape of Good Hope 15,765 nm

59 Agenda Macro Economic Information Panama Canal Traffic Indicators Progress of the Expansion Program Impact of the Expansion Business Initiatives

60 Pricing Strategy Timeline 1-Nov-2014 to 24-Dec-2014 Board of Directors approved proposal 5-Jan-2015 Publication of the proposal 6-Jan-2015 to 9-Feb-2015 Formal consultation period 27-Feb-2015 Public hearing 2-Mar-2015 to 6-Mar-2015 Board of Directors decision and approval 9-Mar-2015 to 20-Mar-2015 Cabinet Council approval 24-Mar-2015 Publication of final tolls 1-Apr-2015 Partial implementation of new structures (Intra Maritime Cluster) April 2016 Full implementation of new toll structure

61 New Tolls Structure Concepts New concepts and tariff initiatives Market Segment Capacity (TEU) Capacity (DWT) Capacity (m 3 ) Capacity (PC/UMS) Capacity (Berth) Cargo on board (MT) Loaded containers tariff Incentive programs and initiatives Containers Dry bulk Product tankers Gas carriers LPG-LNG Chemical tanker Vehicle carriers - RoRo Passenger Reefers General cargo Other vessels

62 Toll comparison per loaded TEU by vessel size range $150 Vessel Size 5,000 TEU $140 $130 $131 $130 $128 $127 $125 $120 $110 $100 current toll proposed toll loyalty 3 loyalty 2 loyalty 1 Vessel Size 6000 < 9000 Vessel Size 9000 $150 $150 $140 $130 $120 $131 $123 $122 $120 $118 $140 $130 $120 $131 $118 $117 $115 $113 $110 $110 $100 current toll proposed toll loyalty 3 loyalty 2 loyalty 1 $100 current toll proposed toll loyalty 3 loyalty 2 loyalty 1 Note: ACP/MEMN. Based on utilization level of 60%, January 2015.

63 Panama Canal Diversification Strategy Power generation Caribbean Sea Corozal Container Terminal Ro-Ro Terminal LNG Terminal Logistic Parks Pipeline Bunkering Ship repairs Top-Off Operations Pacific Ocean

64 In Millions of TEU Panama s Logistics Cluster Support Infrastructure Panama Ports Company Cristobal CARIBBEAN SEA Manzanillo International Terminal (MIT) Colon Container Terminal Transisthmian Highway Transisthmian Railway Tocumen International Airport Container Movements at Panamanian Ports (p) PSA Panama Ports Company Balboa PACIFIC OCEAN PANAMA: 50 MILES OCEAN TO OCEAN

65 Impact on Logistics Cluster Panama Canal Expansion Economies of Scale Unit cost reduction More transshipment New routes/products Need for Additional Capacity Container Terminals Railroad improvements Roll-on Roll-off Multi-purpose Terminals Opportunities Logistic Parks Added Value Energy

66 80% of Vessels that transit the Panama Canal call at a local port The Panama Canal: It s all about connectivity and value added services ASIA Lazaro Cardenas (Mexico) 3-4 days PANAMA Approximately 18 to 20 days at 18 knots Savannah, Charleston, Norfolk (USEC) 3-4 days Callao (Peru) 3-4 Days San Antonio (Chile) 5-6 Days Caucedo (Dominican Rep.) Kingston (Jamaica) 1-2 days Cartagena (Colombia) Less than 1 day Santos (Brazil) Days

67 Corozal Container Terminal Railroad PHASE II PHASE I PPC-Balboa Terminal Operaciones de ACP 550m 550m PSA Terminal Rodman Terminal

68 Corozal Container Terminal Phase II 52 has 2.1 million TEU 12 cranes 25 E-RTGs Phase I 67 has 3.2 million TEU 20 cranes 49 E-RTGs Turning Basin

69 Logistic Park Development Manzanillo Logistic Park Total: 16.9Has 898,787ft 2 warehouses CARIBBEAN SEA Colon Free Zone Total: 1,064.58Has 63,507,071ft 2 warehouses ACP Master Plan for Logistics Park Development Total: Has 16,647,469ft 2 warehouses Panama Pacific Special Economic Zone Total: 88Has 3,982,647ft 2 warehouses PACIFIC OCEAN PANAMA: 50 MILES OCEAN TO OCEAN

70 Reclaimed Land to be Developed Master Plan for approximately 2,965 Acres(1,200 Has) Third Set of Locks Fourth Set of Locks Areas of right of use and administration Areas of ACP Economic Patrimony Areas for Commercial Development Areas for fourth set of locks Areas to be dredged

71 Potential Land Uses Logistics Parks with special economic zone PROJECT AREA 637 Acres ( Has) Operative areas for 800,000 ft 2 (650ft. x 1,230ft.) warehouses Operative areas for 540,000 ft 2 (490ft. x 1,100 ft.) warehouses Operative areas for 312,000 ft 2 (350ft. x 890 ft.) warehouses *Featuring ample roadways, loading and unloading bays for container towing trucks and heavy load vehicles. *Conceptual illustration

72 Panama Canal Update & Outlook Jorge L. Quijano Administrator / CEO Panama Canal Authority Georgia Foreign Trade Conference February 2, 2015

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