A Conceptual Framework for Measuring the Exposure to Tsunamis of Puerto Rican Coastal Communities

Transcription

1 Meulaboh, Aceh A Conceptual Framework for Measuring the Exposure to Tsunamis of Puerto Rican Coastal Communities Jean-Edouard Faucher Saylisse Dávila, PhD Department of Industrial Engineering University of Puerto Rico, Mayagüez, PR Roy Ruiz-Vélez Puerto Rico Seismic Network Puerto Rico Water Resources and Environmental Research Institute University of Puerto Rico, Mayagüez, PR

2 Agenda Background Objectives Tsunami-prone zones Data collection Data pre-processing ANP model Cities rank by TEI Future Work

3 Vulnerability What assets are within tsunami-prone areas? What relative proportion of assets are in tsunami-prone areas? How communities withstand, adapt, and recover from the onslaught of a tsunami? Federal Emergency Management Agency (2013), Community Coastal Resilience.

4 Relevance A tsunami is a series of ocean waves generated by sudden displacements in the sea floor, landslides, or volcanic activity. Historical evidence suggests Puerto Rico and the Caribbean are seismically active zones. Devastating tsunamis in the last decade, such as the ones that occurred in the Indian Ocean (2004) and Japan (2011), caused over: 250,000 deaths 220 billion dollars in losses 100,000 structures affected SOURCE:

5 Objectives 1. Advance the understanding of the vulnerability to tsunamis of Puerto Rico s coastal communities. 2. Characterize tsunami evacuation zones in terms of exposure and sensitivity. 3. Support emergency responders and strategic planners in the development of mitigation, response, and recovery strategies for tsunamis. NOTE: By coastal communities we refer to cities with direct sea access and cities without direct sea access but that are still subject to tsunami floods (Canóvanas and Bayamón).

6 Tsunami-prone zones PRSN and UPRM Marine Sciences develop tsunami flood maps. PRSN develops tsunami evacuation zones (TEZ). TEZ maps are made official after approval of respective municipality mayors and local & state PREMA officials. All data analysis considered official TEZ maps as of January PREMA = Puerto Rico Emergency Management Agency

7 Data Collection

8 Data Collection Data Sources Puerto Rico Emergency Management Agency [PREMA] (2003)

9 GIS Data Pre-Processing Dasymetric analysis All variables were calculated for the TEZ zone using GIS dasymetric mapping analysis. This method facilitate data transferring from one layer (e.g., census tracks) to another layer with zones of relative homogeneity (e.g., employee zones). e.g., Employee Zones Data is uniformly distributed over zones of interest. Assumptions Areal weighting is used to discriminate between citylevel and TEZ-level data.

10 FACILITIES ECONOMY LAND USE POPULATION GIS Data Pre-Processing Zones of Interest Economic Activity Zones Inhabited Zones Human Developed Zones

11 PREMA Zones Source: PREMA

12 ANP model Cities with territories within TEZ Economy within TEZ Facilities within TEZ Population within TEZ Land Use within TEZ Individuals Government Corporations Households Critical facilities Public venues Essential facilities Population attributes Vulnerable population Human Developed Non-Human- Developed Employee salaries Taxes on income Total sales (local + exports) Renteroccupied households Legend: ANP = Analytic Network Process TEZ = Tsunami Evacuation Zone Recreational housing Owneroccupied households Fire stations Parks Hospitals Movie State agency for theaters emergency Hotels management Schools (AEMEAD) Zoos Police stations Shopping Radio centers Television Fast food Water treatment restaurants plants Major streets Power stations and highways Ambulance Tourist Emergency attractions Response Museums Vehicles Universities Essential Stadiums government Churches facilities for Public disaster beaches management Banks Grocery stores Pharmacies Gas stations Courts of law Disabled population Median Age < high school degree Tourists Household size Singlemother households Income below poverty level Population under 5 yrs old Population over 65 yrs old Other

13 ANP in Super Decisions

14 Puerto Rico Tsunami Exposure Index (TEI)

15 ECONOMY FACILITIES POPULATION LAND USE

16 Exposure and Sensitivity Zone I

17 Future Work Develop index for adaptive capacity by incorporating variables that quantify o mitigation, response, and recovery efforts o e.g., pedestrian evacuation time Reduce the number of vulnerability attributes Consider dimensionality reduction techniques

18 Conclusions Develop a new methodology that can: Be easily adapted to other natural disasters. o Even more than one disaster simultaneously. Facilitate how public officials manage disasters by: o o Clearly delineating highly vulnerable hot spots. Outlining the scheme for preparedness funding allocation.

19 Acknowledgements Juan Ayala Fernando Salazar Nicole Castiel Janedys Malavé

20 Discussion Jean-Edouard Faucher Estudiante Graduado Departamento de Ingeniería Industrial UPRM Roy Ruiz Vélez Auxiliar de Investigaciones Red Sísmica de Puerto Rico (RSPR) e Instituto de Recursos de Agua (PRWRERI) UPRM roy.ruiz1@upr.edu Saylisse Dávila, PhD Investigadora Principal Departamento de Ingeniería Industrial UPRM saylisse.davila@upr.edu

21 Backup Slides

22 Puerto Rico Tsunami Exposure Index (TEI) San Juan Vega Baja Arecibo Toa Baja Dorado Barceloneta Carolina Manatí Hatillo Bayamón Vega Alta Camuy Cataño Quebradillas Guaynabo Zone I Zone II Zone III Aguada Mayagüez Ponce Rincón Cabo Rojo Guayanilla Aguadilla Lajas Juana Díaz Añasco Guánica Isabela Peñuelas Yauco Zone IV Zone V Zone VI Santa Isabel Humacao Loiza Salinas Naguabo Río Grande Guayama Yabucoa Luquillo Patillas Maunabo Fajardo Arroyo Canóvanas Vieques Ceiba Culebra Zone IX Zone XI Zone XII

23 Economy, land use, and facilities

24 Population Attributes

25 Vulnerable Populations

26 Exposure and Sensitivity (Zone II)

27 Exposure and Sensitivity (Zone III)

28 Exposure and Sensitivity (Zone IV)

29 Exposure and Sensitivity (Zone V)

30 Exposure and Sensitivity (Zone VI)

31 Exposure and Sensitivity (Zone IX)

32 Exposure and Sensitivity (Zone XI)

33 Exposure and Sensitivity (Zone XII)