Earthquake Risk Reduction Initiatives in the Caribbean

Transcription

1 Earthquake Risk Reduction Initiatives in the Caribbean Lloyd Lynch & Walter Salazar Seismic Research Centre Univ. of the West Indies Trinidad and Tobago Les Saintes Earthquake (2006). Damage to church in Northern Dominica

2 Population at Risk for Natural Hazards 0.3 M Source: CIA Factbook Total = 130 M 11.3 M 3.9 M 6.8 M 2.7 M 16.5 M 2.0 M 6.6 M 5.4 M 4.0 M 3.0 M 42 M 25 M 1.1 M

3 Countries with volcanic and seismic hazards in the eastern Caribbean Earthquake, Volcano and Tsunami Studies in the Insular Caribbean Jurisdiction No Hazards Monitoring Trinidad & 1 IS Eq./Ts. Agency UWI-SRC Tobago Barbados 1 IS Eq./Ts. UWI-SRC OECS States 6 IS Eq./Vo.- UWI-SRC, GSN- French West 3 FDT 1/Ts. Eq./Vo.- CU* IPGP, BRGM Indies Montserrat 1 BDT 1/Ts. Eq./Vo./Ts UWI-SRC Dutch West 5 DDT. Eq.-1/Vo.- KNMI Indies Puerto Rico & 4 DT 1/Ts. Eq./Ts. PRSN V. Anguilla Is. 1 BDT Eq./Ts. No Mon. Dominican 1 IS Eq./Ts. ISU, GSN-CU* Republic Haiti 1 IS Eq./Ts. No Mon. Jamaica 1 IS Eq./Ts. UWI-EU Turks and 1 BDT Eq./Ts. GSN-CU* Caicos Cuba Is. 1 IS Eq./Ts. CENAIS Caymans Is. 1 BDT Eq./Ts. CHMA Bahamas 1 IS Ts. No Mon. Independe nt States - 13 Dependent Territorie s - 12 Monitorin g Agencies -* USGS 8 Tsunami Monitorin g Stations

4 -85 W 25 N Caribbean earthquakes The Longitude instrumental Period -80 W -75 W -70 W -65 W -60 W 25 N 20 N 15 N 15 N 10 N 10 N Latitude 20 N -85 W -80 W -75 W -70 W -65 W -60 W This slide shows earthquakes since Note that although there is far greater detail, the general pattern is the same Seismic Research Unit The University of the West Indies St. Augustine Trinidad Tel Fax sruuwi@tstt.net.tt

5 Caribbean Fatalities from Earthquakes and Tsunamis ( ) Earthquake Fatalities ( ) 40 No. Killed Pop.(Mil) Total Deaths ~16,500

6 Intensity Distribution Region Intensity X IX VIII VII VI Cuba Jamaica Haiti Dom. Rep Puerto Rico Virgin Is Lesser Ant., North Lesser Ant., Central Lesser Ant., South Barbados Trinidad

7 The Bottom, Saba Mt. Liamuiga, St. Kitts Nevis Peak, Nevis Soufriere Hills, Montserrat The Quill, St. Eustatius Volcanoes of the Eastern Caribbean La Soufriere, Guadeloupe Morne Aux Diables,, Dominica Sulphur Springs, St Lucia Montagne Pelee, Martinique The Soufriere, St. Vincent Kick em Jenny Mt St. Catherine, Grenada

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9 Map of Stations Contributing Data to the Tsunami Warning Network ones/estatus.php?maptype=1&sta t_type=100

10 Eastern Caribbean cgps Stations

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12 Motivation for embracing GEM To improve knowledge of seismic source zones Necessary input for tsunami modeling Necessity to compute seismic hazard potential provision for the IBC 2000 or later. This is the building code used by regional Engineers CA. is Ocean-Ocean Convergent Zone. Most of land surface submerged Tectonic features are inaccessible Modern instrumentation and state-ofthe-art research tools/methods are highly desirable because of the capability to make accurate remote measurements of eq. source and crustal parameters

13 After John F. Clinton et al.

14 Average horizontal PGA (in g) with a 475-year return period for average soil, following the logic tree approach. No σ in the attenuation has been considered.

15 Haiti and Dominican republic CUBA TORTUE I. Montecristi Puerto Plata Longitude Les Cayes Gonaives GONAVE I. Cap Haitien HAITI Port Au Prince Santiago DOMINICAN REPUBLIC Barahona Santo Domingo 17.5 C A R I B B E A N S E A Latitude Horizontal Ground Acceleration with 10% probability of exceedance in any 50-year period. Contour interval is 25 gals

16 IBC2000 uses hazard maps in which the Maximum Credible Earthquakes Spectral Accelerations at 0.2s and 1.0s are determined

17 Jamaica Spectral Hazard Maps

18 1. EUCENTRE/INGV/CCEO/UWI Evaluation and Mitigation of Seismic Risk in the Eastern Caribbean Funded by the municipality of Milan, this project aims to implement a multidisciplinary methodology for integrating the aspects of seismic monitoring, seismic hazard, vulnerability and exposure of the building stock of Eastern Caribbean Countries, culminating in the prediction of seismic risk/damage scenarios at an urban scale using a Geographical Information Systems (GIS) platform: Only a half of the proposed scope of work has been funded so far for one year starting Mar Three tasks will be undertaken and work will be restricted to Trinidad and Tobago in the first phase : Revision of Seismic Hazard Maps using methodology akin to that used for IBC compliant maps Feasibility study for establishing a cost effective

19 1. EUCENTRE/INGV/CCEO/UWI Evaluation and Mitigation of Seismic Risk in the Eastern Caribbean Collaborating institutions are the EUCENTRE, UWI - Department of Civil Engineering (DCE) and the Seismic Research Centre (SRC), Caribbean Council of Engineering Organizations (CCEO) The project also caters for 1 fellowship to the EUCENTRE and a scolarship for 1 Caribbean national to pursue Graduate Studies at the ROSE School

20 2. CDB/CROSQ/UWI Region Building Standard Caribbean Development Bank (CDB) has provided a Grant to the Caribbean Regional Organization for Standards and Quality to develop a Regional Building Standard for CDB borrowing member States: Caribbean engineering professionals have adopted the US-based International Code Council (ICC) standards and earthquake hazard maps and attendant application documents are required for the seismic provision of the International Building Code which is affiliated with the ICC. The Seismic Research Centre (SRC) will provide the technical input External technical assistance is required to incorporate new and most appropriate developments in the hazard evaluation. An important goal of the project is to create a framework and mechanisms to foster closer collaboration between the engineering and

21 3. GFDRR/CCRIF/UWI Caribbean Risk Atlas Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility (CCRIF) approached the World Bank to support the enhancement of capacity within the Caribbean to assess risk posed by natural phenomena: The World Bank has assisted the CARICOM Secretariat to obtain funding from the Global Facility for Disaster Risk Reduction to build capacity in natural hazard risk assessment. Initial goal is to develop risk modes for flooding, windstorms and earthquakes in 4 pilot states The project will run for 24 months with a total budget of about US$450K The Disaster Risk Reduction Center (DRRC) of UWI will be executing agency for the project. The end products will for the basis of the

22 4. Seismic Risk Assessment for Loss Reduction in South America Trinidad and Tobago, host nation for the Seismic Research Centre of the University of the West Indies is a member of the Intergovernmental organization CERESIS. In fact the national representative has always been elected from the staff of the SRC: SRC has played leading role in previous CERISIS Hazard assessment initiatives including SISRA (in the 80s) and the IDRC/PAIGH ( ) project. SRC brings Institutional strengthening to the group and its (SRC) staff brings rich memory from previous projects that will prove valuable in the current initiative.

23 Other Initiatives Enhancement of earthquake Readiness Capacity (CDERA/Gov. of Austria ) Benchmarking the earthquake preparedness capacity of CDERA participating states Enhancing earthquake contingency planning including Search and Rescue Promoting earthquake Awareness

24 * Exceptions - Joint Collaborations with other researchers Earthquake Risk Reduction Initiatives Those affiliated with the Modernization establishment and Extension of of TWS Regional Seismic Networks Over 20 Broadband and accelerometers added since 2000 Over 15 cgps stations* Several Accelerographs* VSAT data communication Development of communication Protocols for Tsunami warning and response Enhanced Outreach and Awareness programs Tsunami hazard and vulnerability assessments

25 Urgent Needs To Harmonise projects Mobilize other regional researchers/stakeholders Establish Scheduling with GEM