Airline Capacity in the Caribbean. Michael Lum Air Service Strategy and Development Consultant Sixel Consulting Group, Inc.

Transcription

1 Airline Capacity in the Caribbean Michael Lum Air Service Strategy and Development Consultant Sixel Consulting Group, Inc. October 2013

2 2 Today's Discussion How has airline capacity in the Caribbean changed since 2003? Where is capacity allocated? Focus on U.S. Mainland, Canada, and Europe Legacy vs. Low Cost Carriers Puerto Rico and other intra-caribbean

3 In 2013, 61% of Caribbean Capacity Will be to/from the U.S. Mainland; Europe Will Account for 17% of the Capacity Published 2013 Caribbean Capacity by Region Full Year 2013 Scheduled Seats South America 7% Central America 5% Canada 10% Europe 17% U.S. Mainland 61% 3

4 4 The Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico and Cuba Will Account for 48% of Capacity to/from the Caribbean in 2013 Published 2013 Caribbean Capacity by Destination (All Regions) Full Year 2013 Scheduled Seats St. Maarten 2% Martinique 2% U.S.V.I. 2% Barbados 3% Haiti 3% All Others 11% Dominican Republic 21% Curacao 3% Puerto Rico 17% Trinidad & Tobago 4% Aruba 5% Bahamas 7% Jamaica 10% Cuba 10%

5 Capacity Index U.S. Mainland, Canada and Europe Caribbean Capacity Has Grown 25% Since 2003 with Canada Growing 509% U.S. Mainland, Canada and Europe Caribbean Capacity: Change Relative to Scheduled Seats 1.75 U.S. Mainland Europe Canada All Regions

6 Seats per Day Each Way Capacity to/from the Caribbean Will Be at an All-Time High in 2013 U.S. Mainland, Canada and Europe Caribbean Capacity: Seats per Day Each Way Scheduled Seats per Day Each Way 40,000 35,000 30,000 U.S. Mainland Europe Canada All Others Total 35,103 36,356 31,870 32,154 32,479 32,002 31,615 31,484 32,943 32,727 29,040 25,000 20,000 22,566 22,506 22,854 22,436 21,594 20,359 21,021 21,821 21,155 22,014 22,085 15,000 10,000 5, ,484 5,895 6,139 6,104 5,970 6,000 6,045 6,114 6,379 6,379 6, ,016 1,001 1,068 1,200 1,451 2,028 2,887 3,655 1,

7 Percent of Capacity 7 U.S. Mainland and Europe Capacity as a Share of Total Caribbean Capacity Has Declined; Canada Has Increased U.S. Mainland, Canada and Europe Caribbean Capacity: Capacity Share Scheduled Seats 100% U.S. Mainland Europe Canada All Others 90% 80% 70% 60% 70% 71% 70% 70% 70% 68% 67% 66% 65% 63% 61% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 19% 18% 19% 19% 19% 19% 19% 19% 19% 18% 17% 2% 3% 3% 3% 3% 4% 5% 6% 8% 10% 6%

8 American and JetBlue Will Account for Nearly Half of the U.S. Mainland Caribbean Capacity in 2013 Published 2013 U.S. Mainland Caribbean Capacity by Airline Full Year 2013 Scheduled Seats Spirit 2% All Others 8% Caribbean 4% AirTran/Southwest 6% American 26% United 7% US Airways 10% JetBlue 23% Delta 13% 8

9 Number of Routes Flown * Routes flown by more than one carrier are counted more than once. 9 The Total Number of U.S. Mainland Caribbean Routes Flown Increased from 233 in 2003 to 303 in 2013 U.S. Mainland Caribbean Routes: Number of Routes* Flown by Carrier Type Routes Flown Legacy LCC LCC + Legacy % -8.9% %

10 Number of Net New Routes Flown JetBlue and Southwest/AirTran Have Added the Most Number of New Routes from the U.S. Mainland to the Caribbean U.S. Mainland Caribbean Routes: Number of Net New Routes by Carrier

11 Capacity Share 11 Legacy Carriers Now Operate Less than Two-Thirds of U.S. Mainland Caribbean Capacity U.S. Mainland Caribbean Capacity: Legacy Carriers Versus Low-Cost Carriers Scheduled Seats 100% 80% Legacy Carriers 94% 94% 92% 89% 85% 82% Low-Cost Carriers 75% 72% 68% 65% 63% 60% 40% 25% 28% 32% 35% 37% 20% 6% 6% 8% 11% 15% 18% 0%

12 Capacity Share Among Legacy Carriers, American's Share of U.S. Mainland Caribbean Capacity Is down from 62% to 46% U.S. Mainland Caribbean Capacity: Legacy Carrier Capacity Trend Scheduled Seats 100% American Delta United US Airways 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 62% 60% 59% 57% 57% 56% 49% 50% 51% 49% 46% 30% 20% 10% 11% 12% 14% 14% 15% 15% 18% 18% 17% 19% 23% 0%

13 Capacity Share Among the Low-Cost Carriers JetBlue Will Generate 71% of the U.S. Mainland Caribbean Capacity in 2013 U.S. Mainland Caribbean Capacity: Low-Cost Carrier Capacity Trend Scheduled Seats 100% JetBlue Southwest/AirTran Spirit ATA 80% 67% 66% 68% 71% 71% 60% 46% 43% 54% 51% 59% 40% 33% 20% 11% 9% 7% 4% 1% 5% 8% 12% 17% 18% 19% 0%

14 Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic and Jamaica Will Account for 57% of U.S. Mainland Capacity in U.S. Mainland Caribbean Capacity by Destination Full Year 2013 Scheduled Seats Trinidad & Tobago 3% St. Maarten 2% All Others 8% Bermuda 3% Cayman Islands 3% Haiti 4% U.S.V.I. 4% Puerto Rico 27% Aruba 5% Bahamas 10% Dominican Republic 19% Jamaica 11% 14

15 -663, ,564 Change in Annual Seats -60, , , , , , , , , , ,910 79,288 58,012 41,842 32,922 29,896 23,796 6,512 5,772 1,119,959 With the Exception of Bermuda, Barbados, Puerto Rico and the Bahamas, Most Islands Have More Mainland Capacity U.S. Mainland Caribbean Capacity: Capacity Change Since 2003 by Destination Scheduled Seats 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000, , , , , , , , ,000 15

16 21% 19% 18% 16% 12% 10% 7% 30% 26% Capacity Share 36% 35% 46% 45% 54% 55% 64% 65% 70% 74% 79% 81% 82% 84% 88% 90% 93% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Jamaica and Aruba Have the Largest Shares of LCC Capacity U.S. Mainland Caribbean Capacity: Legacy vs. LCC Share by Destination 2013 Scheduled Seats Legacy LCC 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 16

17 Average One-Way Fare The Average U.S. Mainland Caribbean Fare Increased Just $38 Each Way to $235 since 2003 U.S. Mainland Caribbean Average One-Way Fare (Excludes Taxes and Fees) Year-End First Quarter $300 $280 All Caribbean Puerto Rico U.S.V.I. Other Caribbean $265 $262 $260 $240 $220 $211 $215 $206 $214 $223 $223 $238 $227 $238 $240 $235 $200 $180 $197 $198 $188 $195 $206 $205 $216 $205 $218 $160 $173 $167 $154 $159 $166 $166 $167 $158 $173 $184 $174 $140 $120 $

18 Average One-Way Fare $174 $216 $225 $235 $240 $243 $257 $258 $260 $264 $280 $291 $296 $299 $331 $339 $354 $354 $360 $361 $375 $399 $424 $452 $483 $581 The Average U.S. Mainland Caribbean One-Way Fare Ranges from $174 for Puerto Rico to $581 for Anguilla U.S. Mainland Caribbean Average One-Way Fare by Destination (Excludes Taxes and Fees) Year-End First Quarter 2013 $700 $600 $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 $0 18

19 Capacity Index Canada's Caribbean Capacity Has Grown More than 500% Since 2003 U.S. Mainland, Canada and Europe Caribbean Capacity: Change Relative to Scheduled Seats U.S. Mainland Europe Canada All Regions

20 Cuba and Jamaica Will Account for 59% of Canada Caribbean Capacity in Canada Caribbean Capacity by Destination Full Year 2013 Scheduled Seats Turks & Caicos 1% All Others 8% Bermuda 2% Barbados 3% Bahamas 4% Trinidad & Tobago 5% Cuba 39% Jamaica 16% Dominican Republic 20% 20

21 -54-7,442-8,308 Change in Annual Seats 86,462 82,470 34,979 31,449 24,334 22,524 14,452 14,136 11,352 8,520 5,816 5,573 5,371 1, , , ,794 Since 2003, Only Guadeloupe, Bermuda and Haiti Have Less Canada Capacity Canada Caribbean Capacity: Capacity Change Since 2003 by Destination Scheduled Seats 1,000, , , , , ,000 21

22 Capacity Index Europe Caribbean Capacity Has Increased 15% Since 2003 U.S. Mainland, Canada and Europe Caribbean Capacity: Change Relative to Scheduled Seats 1.50 U.S. Mainland Europe Canada All Regions

23 The Dominican Republic, Cuba and Guadeloupe Will Account for 55% of All Europe Caribbean Capacity in Europe Caribbean Capacity by Destination Full Year 2013 Scheduled Seats Curacao 4% St. Maarten 4% Antigua 3% St. Lucia 3% All Others 9% Dominican Republic 25% Jamaica 4% Barbados 7% Cuba 17% Martinique 11% Guadeloupe 13% 23

24 -168,178-58, ,642-6,253-14,623 Change in Annual Seats 100,039 88,910 64,288 43,232 38,448 32,189 27,597 20,540 16,771 8,326 4, ,952 Bonaire, Puerto Rico and Antigua Have Lost the Most European Capacity Europe Caribbean Capacity: Capacity Change Since 2003 by Destination Scheduled Seats 500, , , , , , ,000 24

25 France and the United Kingdom Will Account for 61% of All Europe Caribbean Capacity in Europe Caribbean Capacity by Origin Full Year 2013 Scheduled Seats Russia 5% Italy 2% Belgium 1% All Others 1% Spain 9% France 36% Netherlands 9% Germany 11% United Kingdom 26% 25

26 -90, , ,887 Change in Annual Seats ,495-27,658 16,401 8,810 5,654 61, , , ,914 The Netherlands, Spain, Italy and Germany Have Lost the Most Caribbean Capacity since 2003 Europe Caribbean Capacity: Capacity Change Since 2003 by Origin Scheduled Seats 400, , , , , ,000 26

27 Capacity Index Total Capacity within the Caribbean Has Remained at Approximately Three-Fourths the 2003 Level since 2009 Intra-Caribbean Caribbean Capacity: Change Relative to Scheduled Seats 2.0 Intra-Caribbean Capacity Index

28 Capacity Index Excluding Puerto Rico, Caribbean Capacity Will Be at 87% of Its 2003 Level Ex-Puerto Rico Intra-Caribbean Capacity: Change Relative to Scheduled Seats 2.0 Intra-Caribbean Capacity Index

29 Capacity Index Puerto Rico Caribbean Capacity Has Declined to Just 37% of Its 2003 Level Puerto Rico Caribbean Capacity: Change Relative to Scheduled Seats 2.0 Puerto Rico-Caribbean Capacity Index