Mornington Peninsula National Park Carpark Capacity Modelling Project

Transcription

1 Mornington Peninsula National Park Carpark Capacity Modelling Project Phil Medley & Dino Zanon Visitor & Asset Strategy MORNINGTON PENINSULA NATIONAL PARK CARPARK CAPACTIY MODELLING PROJECT December 2005 Page 1 METROPOLITAN PARKS AND BAYS DECEMBER 2005

2 Contents List of Figures... 2 List of Tables Executive Summary Introduction Background to Study Project Methodology Results Summary of Results Cape Schanck Fingal Picnic Area Flinders Ocean Beach Gunnamatta Ocean Beach Koonya Ocean Beach London Bridge Portsea Ocean Beach Rye Ocean Beach Sorrento Ocean Beach St Andrews Beach Discussion Recommendations Appendix - Summary Table...42 List of Figures Figure 2.1 Mornington Peninsula National Park... 7 Figure 5.1 Cape Schanck Hourly Arrivals/Departures Figure 5.2 Cape Schanck Culmulative Traffic on Average and Criterion Days Figure 5.3 Cape Schanck Minimum Available Carpark Capacity Figure 5.4 Fingal Picnic Area Hourly Arrivals/Departures (As recorded by 2002 VVNM study) Figure 5.5 Fingal Picnic Area Culmulative Traffic on Average and Criterion Days Figure 5.6 Fingal Picnic Area Minimum Available Carpark Capacity Figure 5.7 Flinders Ocean Beach Hourly Arrivals/Departures (2002 VVNM study) Figure 5.8 Flinders Ocean Beach Culmulative Traffic on Average and Criterion Days Figure 5.9 Flinders Ocean Beach Minimum Available Carpark Capacity Figure 5.10 Gunnamatta Ocean Beach Hourly Arrivals/Departures (2002 VVNM study) Figure 5.11 Gunnamatta Ocean Beach Culmulative Traffic on Average and Criterion Days Figure 5.12 Gunnamatta Ocean Beach Minimum Available Carpark Capacity Figure 5.13 Koonya Ocean Beach Hourly Arrivals/Departures (2002 VVNM study) Figure 5.14 Koonya Ocean Beach Culmulative Traffic on Average and Criterion Days Figure 5.15 Koonya Ocean Beach Minimum Available Carpark Capacity Figure 5.16 London Bridge Hourly Arrivals/Departures (2002 VVNM study) Figure 5.17 London Bridge Culmulative Traffic on Average and Criterion Days Figure 5.18 London Bridge Minimum Available Carpark Capacity Figure 5.19 Portsea Ocean Beach Hourly Arrivals/Departures (2002 VVNM study) Figure 5.20 Portsea Ocean Beach Culmulative Traffic on Average and Criterion Days Figure 5.21 Portsea Ocean Beach Minimum Available Carpark Capacity Figure 5.22 Rye Ocean Beach Hourly Arrivals/Departures (2002 VVNM study) Figure 5.23 Rye Ocean Beach Culmulative Traffic on Average and Criterion Days Figure 5.24 Rye Ocean Beach Minimum Available Carpark Capacity Figure 5.25 Sorrento Ocean Beach Hourly Arrivals/Departures (2002 VVNM study) Figure 5.26 Sorrento Ocean Beach Culmulative Traffic on Average and Criterion Days Figure 5.27 Sorrento Ocean Beach Minimum Available Carpark Capacity Figure 5.28 St Andrews Beach Hourly Arrivals/Departures (2002 VVNM study) Figure 5.29 St Andrews Beach Culmulative Traffic on Average and Criterion Days Figure 5.30 St Andrews Beach Minimum Available Carpark Capacity MORNINGTON PENINSULA NATIONAL PARK CARPARK CAPACTIY MODELLING PROJECT December 2005 Page 2

3 List of Tables Table 1.1: Summary of sites where carpark capacity is a current or an emerging issue... 5 Table 4.1: Maximum and Average Daily Vehicle Entries 2001/02 Figures... 9 Table 4.2: Fee Collection vs Criterion Day Vehicle Entries Figures Table 4.3: Length of Stay Criterion: Av. length of visit on <35.0ºC max days and >35.0ºC max days Table 4.4: Carpark Details: Parking Spaces at Sites according to AMS & Regional Data Table 4.5: Proportion of Visitor Types and Estimated Annual Visitation Increases Table 5.1 Summary of Criterion Day Modelled Results Table 5.2 Summary of Projected Future Situation based on Criterion Day Variables Table 5.3 Criterion Day Results for Cape Schanck Table 5.4 Cape Schanck 98th Percentile Day Vehicle Entries Comparison Results Table 5.5 Criterion Day Results for Fingal Picnic Area Table 5.6 Criterion Day Results for Flinders Ocean Beach Table 5.7 Criterion Day Results for Gunnamatta Ocean Beach Table 5.8 Gunnamatta Ocean Beach 98th Percentile Day Vehicle Entries Comparison Results Table 5.9 Gunnamatta Ocean Beach Fee Collection and Vehicle Monitoring Data Comparison Table 5.10 Gunnamatta Ocean Beach Fee Collection Projection Table 5.11 Criterion Day Results for Koonya Ocean Beach Table 5.12 Criterion Day Results for London Bridge Table 5.13 London Bridge 98th Percentile Day Vehicle Entries Comparison Results Table 5.14 Criterion Day Results for Portsea Ocean Beach Table 5.15 Criterion Day Results for Rye Ocean Beach Table 5.16 Criterion Day Results for Sorrento Ocean Beach Table 5.17 Sorrento Ocean Beach 98th Percentile Day Vehicle Entries Comparison Results Table 5.18 Criterion Day Results for St Andrews Beach Table 5.19 St Andrews 98th Percentile Day Vehicle Entries Comparison Results Table 8.1 Summary of Projected Future Carpark Capacity Situation MORNINGTON PENINSULA NATIONAL PARK CARPARK CAPACTIY MODELLING PROJECT December 2005 Page 3

4 1 Executive Summary Parks Victoria manages over 4.1 million hectares of parks, bays and reserves in Victoria. Mornington Peninsula National Park is a popular coastal park located approximately 90 km south of Melbourne. The park is a major tourist attraction within Victoria s highest visited tourism region particularly for Melburnians receiving 3.1 million visits per year making it the most heavily visited national park in Victoria. Whilst the park is major holiday attraction for Melburnians it also receives many day-trippers to the park because of the freeway access. This is expected to increase with the planned linkage of the Eastern and Frankston freeways. The Mornington Peninsula is also an area where residential population is increasing at approximately double the average Victorian rate. Parks visitation levels vary seasonally with the highest, concentrations at readily accessible sites distributed along the coastline such as Sorrento, Portsea, Gunnamatta and Rye. Anecdotal evidence has suggested that some of these high visitation sites with the park can reach capacity on hot summer days. Park visitation is forecast to increase by an average of 2.26% per annum, which will increase park visitation to nearly 4.5 million in 2021 (including Point Nepean). The greatest growth is expected to result from interstate and international visitors to the Mornington Peninsula with anticipated annual growth at 2.5% and 5. respectively. This is expected to have a significant impact on site capacity on high visitation days during summer. This analysis was commissioned to evaluate the adequacy of car parking at 10 of the highest visitation sites within the park, excluding Point Nepean, over the next 16 years given anticipated projected growth in visitation levels. In particular, the analysis looked at how well existing parking facilities cope with current visitor loads on highest visitation days, what are projected visitation levels to these sites over the next 16 years, how will existing carparks cope with these levels on peak visit days, and how does length of visitor stay affect the pattern of visit usage and carpark loading at these sites A capacity modelling spreadsheet was used as a tool to evaluate carpark capacity and length of overflow duration. A criterion day was defined for each site to provide an indicative peak usage day during summer based on a number of variables. These site-specific criterion day variables were used in the spreadsheet model and are described within this methodology. In summary, they include: - maximum daily vehicle entries for the 95th Percentile day; vehicle monitoring data was used with up to 18 days per year likely to be busier. This data was validated by cross-checking with recent fee collection information. - pattern of vehicle entries throughout day in 5 minute intervals (from vehicle monitoring) - average length of stay particularly on days with a maximum temperature greater than 35ºC. - total number of car parking spaces at site - projected annual visitation increase Criterion day values for each of these variables were defined for each site with modelling conducted at four-yearly intervals between 2001 and Maximum daily vehicle entries were based upon the projected annual visitation forecasts over this period. Further analysis was also conducted for the 98th Percentile visitation daily vehicle entries (7 days/year are busier) for each site as a comparison where the anecdotal evidence conflicted with these analyses. In general, the analysis indicates that existing carparking facilities appear adequate at present for most sites with only a few reaching capacity. However, the modelling indicated that two sites will have carpark capacity issues before 2020 according to the 95th Percentile vehicle entries (18 days/year are busier) and a further two sites if the 98th Percentile vehicle entries (7 days/year are busier) is considered. These sites are indicated in Table 1.1 with the estimated number of daily failed trips where capacity is exceeded. MORNINGTON PENINSULA NATIONAL PARK CARPARK CAPACTIY MODELLING PROJECT December 2005 Page 4

5 Table 1.1: Summary of sites where carpark capacity is a current or an emerging issue Capacity is an issue on more than 18 days/yr CURRENT Capacity Is an issue on more than 7 days/yr Capacity will be an issue on more than 18 days/yr Capacity will be an issue on more than 7 days/yr Capacity will be an issue on more than 18 days/yr Capacity will be an issue on more than 7 days/yr Cape Schanck 7 failed vehicle trips 124 failed vehicle trips 37 failed vehicle trips 193 failed vehicle trips 76 failed vehicle trips 277 failed vehicle trips London Bridge 12 failed vehicle trips 76 failed vehicle trips 40 failed vehicle trips 124 failed vehicle trips 87 failed vehicle trips 195 failed vehicle trips Sorrento 41 failed vehicle trips 199 failed vehicle trips Gunnamatta 66 failed vehicle trips Current Carpark Capacity Issues The analysis indicates that both Cape Schanck and London Bridge are already considered to be at capacity on peak visitor days (up to 18 days each year). The Cape Schanck analysis indicates that at least 2% of vehicle trips in 2004 will face a full carpark on up to 18 days per year, increasing to 14% by Length of carpark overflow is projected to increase from 30 minutes in 2004 to over three hours in The 98th Percentile vehicle entries analysis indicates that there will be 277 failed vehicle trips (35% total trips) to the site by 2020 on up to seven days each year. At London Bridge, at least 3% of vehicle trips in 2004 would face a capacity carpark on up to 18 days per year, increasing to 17% by The length of carpark overflow will increase from 40 minutes in 2004 to almost four hours in The 98th Percentile vehicle entries analysis indicates that there will be 195 failed vehicle trips (3 total trips) to the site by 2020 on up to 7 days each year. Future Carpark Capacity Issues Carpark capacity is expected to become an emerging issue at Gunnamatta Ocean Beach and Sorrento Ocean Beach. The 98th percentile vehicle entries analysis indicated that carparking will be a problem at both sites for several days each year before 2020 for Gunnamatta and Sorrento Ocean Beaches. The analysis also highlighted that St Andrews Ocean Beach will face carpark capacity issues on peak visitation days soon after The 98th Percentile analysis indicated that there will be an emerging capacity issue at Gunnamatta Ocean Beach by 2012 on up to seven days each year, with an estimated 66 failed trips daily by 2020 accounting for 4.5% of all vehicle trips to the site. Analysis using more recent fee collection data also indicated that the site is busier than projected from vehicle monitoring data which could result in the site reaching capacity of hot summer days sooner than expected by this analysis. The 98th Percentile analysis indicated that there will be a capacity issue at Sorrento Ocean Beach soon by 2008 on up to seven days each year. By 2020, there will be 199 failed trips accounting for 10.8% of all vehicle trips to the site on up to seven days each year. The capacity issue escalates quickly at this site due to high visitation numbers and relatively small overall carparking area. The 98th Percentile analysis indicated that site capacity will become an emerging issue at St Andrews Beach by 2020 with over 96% of the carpark in use during peak periods on up to 7 days each year. The exact number of days at these sites that capacity will be exceeded at these sites in 2020 is difficult to predict and will be dependent on numerous factors including weather conditions, growth rates, and the level of fee collection. The percentile simply provides an indication of the number of days each year where capacity is likely to be exceeded. MORNINGTON PENINSULA NATIONAL PARK CARPARK CAPACTIY MODELLING PROJECT December 2005 Page 5

6 Recommendations This analysis recommends that: The carpark capacity situation at Sorrento and Gunnamatta Ocean Beaches should be carefully monitored. Further vehicle monitoring and subsequent capacity analysis may be appropriate to determine future capacity risks at the above sites. Flinders Ocean Beach and St Andrews should also be monitored due to potential growth in local population. Expanded carparking areas are most required by Cape Schanck and London Bridge sites to meet visitor demand Cape Schanck is a particular concern due to presence of a leasee and the Lighthouse Station as a tourist attraction. Overflow vehicles at London Bridge could potentially be encouraged to visit Portsea instead. Sorrento and Gunnamatta should be prioritised for future resource and funding allocation as the second and fourth highest visitation sites within this park and the next most likely sites to face capacity issues. Flinders Ocean Beach should also be considered due to local population growth. MORNINGTON PENINSULA NATIONAL PARK CARPARK CAPACTIY MODELLING PROJECT December 2005 Page 6

7 2 Introduction Parks Victoria has the responsibility for management of over 4.1 million hectares of parks, bays and reserves in Victoria, or 18% of the total area of Victoria. Organisational responsibilities include meeting customer needs for the provision of quality information, services and experiences while also contributing to the social and economic well-being of Victorians. As management of recreational facilities and visitor services requires a significant proportion of available resources, there is a need to continuously improve the understanding of relationships between visitor use, customer satisfaction and the natural environment. Mornington Peninsula National Park is a 40 km stretch of windswept coastline and hinterland located approximately 90 km south of Melbourne. The park was developed to protect major natural and cultural heritage sites on the Mornington Peninsula. As shown in Figure 1.1, the park includes virtually the entire ocean coast between Point Nepean and Bushrangers Bay, a narrow band of land along the Main Creek Valley, the expansive Greens Bush north of Cape Schanck and a narrow coastal strip between Simmons Bay and Flinders. The park is accessed from the Mornington Peninsula Freeway, Nepean Highway, Point Nepean Road, and Frankston-Flinders Road. Figure 2.1 Mornington Peninsula National Park The Aboriginal Bunerong-Bulluk community once inhabited the region with current local place names and shell middens reflecting this heritage. Europeans arrived in the area during the early 19th century and was exploited for building materials and grazing land from the 1840 s. In 1876, entrepreneur George Coppin persuaded local authorities to set aside a narrow coastal strip as an Ocean Park. This strip was awarded national park status in 1988 and then renamed Mornington Peninsula National Park in The park has been assigned a World Conservation Union rating of Category II under the IUCN United Nations for National Parks and Protected Areas, designated to be primarily managed for ecosystem conservation and appropriate recreation. MORNINGTON PENINSULA NATIONAL PARK CARPARK CAPACTIY MODELLING PROJECT December 2005 Page 7

8 3 Background to Study The Peninsula is a boom area with population increasing at approximately double the Victorian average rate. It is also Victoria s highest visited tourism region. A major regional attraction is Mornington Peninsula National Park attracting large numbers of visitors from Melbourne and regional Victoria with growing numbers of interstate and overseas tourists. This popularity stems from the proximity of the park to Melbourne and its freeway connection providing the setting for many recreation activities on the south of the Peninsula. The freeway connecton is set to improve with the Easten freeway (which will services the heavily populated eastern suburbs) connecting with the Frankston freeway in the next couple of years. The recreational activities at the park include surfing, scubadiving, horse riding, hang gliding, diving, nature observation, picnicking, walking, fishing, sightseeing, and heritage appreciation. The park is the most heavily visited national park in Victoria receiving over 3.1 million visits per year. Visitation levels vary seasonally, with ocean beaches being very popular on hot summer days although other sites are popular destinations throughout the year. The Visitor Satisfaction Monitor indicated that 15% of visitors to the park are first-time visitors and 85% were repeat visitors. The length of visit varies between sites and is largely influenced by weather. Park visitation is concentrated at readily accessible sites distributed along the coastline, particularly at Sorrento, Portsea, Gunnamatta and Rye. Substantial visitation also occurs at London Bridge, Koonya, Cape Schanck and Flinders. Parking fees are charged at Portsea, Sorrento, Rye and Gunnamatta ocean beaches during summer to assist with maintenance and development work within the park, and to control the number of visitors to sites during peak season. Fees are also charged at Cape Schanck for both parking and lighthouse tours. Cape Schanck Regional feedback has suggested that some of these high visitation sites with the park can reach capacity on hot summer days. Park visitation is forecast to increase by an average of 2.26% per annum, which will increase park visitation from an estimated 3.1 million in 2001 (including Point Nepean) to nearly 4.5 million in 2021 (including Point Nepean). The greatest growth is expected to result from interstate and international visitors to the Mornington Peninsula with anticipated annual growth at 2.5% and 5. respectively. This is expected to have a significant impact on site capacity on high visitation days during summer. As a result, this initial analysis has been commissioned by the Visitor and Asset Strategy Team to evaluate the adequacy of car parking at ten of the highest visitation sites within the park, excluding Point Nepean, over 16-years given anticipated projected growth in visitation levels. This analysis aims to address the following management questions for the selected sites: 1. How well do existing parking facilities cope with current visitor loads on highest visitation days 2. What are projected visitation levels to these sites over the next 15 years 3. How will existing carparks cope with projected visitation on peak visit days over the next 15 yrs 4. How does length of visitor stay affect the pattern of visit usage and carpark loading at these sites While this present analysis will focus solely on carparking facilities, future research could be undertaken to look at the capacity of other facilities and service gaps at these sites to guide facility development and service provision. Further development of the Parks Victoria Facility Manual and the relationship to the Parks Victoria Levels of Service (LOS) framework and visitation numbers is required before this form of analysis can be undertaken. MORNINGTON PENINSULA NATIONAL PARK CARPARK CAPACTIY MODELLING PROJECT December 2005 Page 8

9 4 Project Methodology Mornington Peninsula National Park sites targeted were chosen based on existing Levels of Service site ratings. The analysis was conducted at all mid and high level rated sites within the park with the exception of Collins Settlement Historic Park where no vehicle visitation data is available and Point Nepean, which is soon to be re-developed. St Andrews Beach is a Basic site included in this analysis A capacity modelling spreadsheet developed for a similar analysis at Port Campbell National Park was used as a tool to evaluate carpark capacity and length of overflow duration. A criterion day was defined for each site to provide an indicative peak usage day during summer based on a number of variables. These site-specific criterion day variables were used in the spreadsheet model and are described within this methodology. In summary, they include: - maximum daily vehicle entries (95 th Percentile day data 18 days per year are busier) - pattern of vehicle entries throughout day in 5 minute intervals (from vehicle monitoring) - average length of stay (average length of visit on days with temperature >35ºC) - total number of car parking spaces at site - projected annual visitation increase Criterion day values for each of these variables were defined for each site with modelling conducted at four-yearly intervals between 2001 and Maximum daily vehicle entries were based upon the projected annual visitation forecasts over this period. 4.1 Criterion Day Variable - Maximum Daily Site Visitation Maximum daily vehicle entries and visitation levels to sites in this analysis were calculated from vehicle monitoring data collected at Mornington Peninsula National Park sites during December 2001 and January This monitoring involved vehicle counters being placed at the entrance/exit to 15 sites with data collected over a one month period at all sites and over a further seven weeks at seven high visitation sites. Monitoring data was used in conjunction with data from other locations to model estimated visitation to these sites over the period of a year. More recent vehicle data has been collected at Cape Schanck by the kiosk leasee so their data was used for this site. For the purposes of estimating the criterion variable, or the maximum daily vehicle entries to a given site, the 95th Percentile of daily vehicle entries was calculated according to vehicle monitoring data for each site except Cape Schanck. This percentile was used for statistical stability purposes and represents a day busier than 95% of the days each year. As a result, there are on average just 5% of days annually (18 days) which are likely to be busier. Analysis was also conducted at the 98th Percentile where only 7 days annually on average are busier for comparative purposes. This information formed the base level of vehicle numbers to each site for the criterion day within this analysis. Maximum visitation to Cape Schanck was estimated from the 95th Percentile of daily vehicle visits according to data collected by the leasee in 2004/05. Summarised average daily vehicle entries and 95 th Percentile daily vehicle entries to all sites included in this analysis are shown in Table 4.1 based on Visitation. Table 4.1: Maximum and Average Daily Vehicle Entries 2001/02 Figures Site Average 95 th Percentile 98 th Percentile Vehicle Entries Vehicle Entries Vehicle Entries Cape Schanck * 583* Fingal Picnic Area Flinders Ocean Beach Gunnamatta Ocean Beach Koonya Ocean Beach London Bridge Portsea Ocean Beach Rye Ocean Beach Sorrento Ocean Beach St Andrews Ocean Beach *Cape Schanck figures are based on data collected by the leasee, not vehicle monitoring data. MORNINGTON PENINSULA NATIONAL PARK CARPARK CAPACTIY MODELLING PROJECT December 2005 Page 9

10 These maximum vehicle entries were crosschecked with statistics from summer fee collection booths at Rye, Gunnamatta, Sorrento and Portsea Ocean Beaches. This cross-checking was designed to indicate whether data collected by counters in was different to site vehicle entries during the and peak summer seasons. Fee collection booth data was ramped up substantially during the analysis as only daily pass and yearly pass entries are collected in these statistics. Vehicles that already have yearly passes are not counted at toll booths; however for the purposes of this analysis, 5 of vehicle entries to each site on a given day were assumed to be previously purchased annual passes (likely to be a significant over-estimate), essentially doubling visitation levels of the statistics provided. In comparison with vehicle monitoring results, the and summer season fee collection statistics (ramped up) were generally lower, indicating vehicle monitoring data actually provides a high estimate of current visitation levels at three sites. Only Gunnamatta Ocean Beach summer fee collection figures were significantly higher than the project criterion day figures based on counter data. The criterion day vehicle entries used in the analysis for Gunnamatta Ocean Beach are based upon figures projected from counter data; however an analysis using the fee collection figure was conducted with results found in section 5.5. A comparison between 95th Percentile visitation for toll-booth data and criterion day vehicle entries projected from vehicle counter data is found below in Table 4.2. Table 4.2: Fee Collection vs Criterion Day Vehicle Entries Figures Site 2004 Criterion Day (95 th Percentile) 95 th Percentile Vehicle Entries from Vehicle Entries ( monitoring) on-site summer fee collection Gunnamatta Ocean Beach Portsea Ocean Beach Rye Ocean Beach Sorrento Ocean Beach Note: These are the only sites where summer fee collection data was available for Maximum and average daily visitation levels shown in the results section are based on transforming the average and 95 th Percentile daily vehicle entries. Based on previous studies, 2.63 persons are considered to occupy each vehicle that enters a site. An additional 3% of visitors are estimated to be walk-in pedestrian entries. Therefore, 2.7 was used as the multiplier to transform daily vehicle entries into visitation levels. 4.2 Criterion Day Variable Average Pattern of vehicle entries The pattern of vehicle entries to sites was determined by calculating daily visitors arriving at the site in 5- minute intervals as a percentage of the daily total. Vehicle data from the monitoring study was used and it was assumed that all vehicles entered sites after 6am and exited prior to 10pm as these sites offer no overnight accommodation except for Surf Life Saving Clubs. This site-specific information was then placed into the capacity modelling spreadsheet. 4.3 Criterion Day Variable - Length of Stay Discussions with park staff and analysis of data indicated that the greatest numbers of visitors at Mornington Peninsula National Park sites are found on hot summer days. The vehicle monitoring data also suggests that there is strong correlation between daily temperature and average length of stay, with hot summer days resulting in a significantly longer average length of visit. Analysis of the vehicle data indicated that there was substantial difference between average length of stay at most sites on days when temperatures remained less than 35ºC compared to the length of stay on days with a maximum temperature over 35ºC. This is highlighted in Table 4.3. MORNINGTON PENINSULA NATIONAL PARK CARPARK CAPACTIY MODELLING PROJECT December 2005 Page 10

11 Table 4.3: Length of Stay Criterion: Av. length of visit on <35.0ºC max days and >35.0ºC max days Site Average length of visit Average length of visit (Max Temp <35.0ºC) (Max Temp >35ºC) Cape Schanck 70 minutes 65 minutes Fingal Picnic Area 45 minutes 110 minutes Flinders Ocean Beach 55 minutes 80 minutes Gunnamatta Ocean Beach 100 minutes 140 minutes Koonya Ocean Beach 10 minutes 35 minutes London Bridge 35 minutes 85 minutes Portsea Ocean Beach 45 minutes 85 minutes Rye Ocean Beach 40 minutes 80 minutes Sorrento Ocean Beach 60 minutes 95 minutes St Andrews Ocean Beach 10 minutes 20 minutes For the purposes of this study, the average visitor length of stay on days above 35 C was used as the criterion day length of visitor stay for each site. This was based on the rationale that visitor facilities are most likely to be stretched on these hot summer days when visitor numbers are greatest and their average length of stay is prolonged. This was designed to demonstrate the worst case scenario in terms of high visitation levels at each site. 4.4 Criterion Day Variable - Car Parking Spaces at Sites The number of car spaces at these sites was determined from the Asset Management System (AMS) Extraction (30 July 2004),crosschecking through field visits in January 2005 and communication with the regional staff in June No bus parking spaces were identified at any of the targeted Mornington Peninsula National Park sites in the AMS. Carparking spaces at all sites considered in the analysis are summarised in Table 4.4 below. Table 4.4: Carpark Details: Parking Spaces at Sites according to AMS & Regional Data Site Carparking Spaces Cape Schanck 45 Fingal Picnic Area 80 Flinders Ocean Beach 110 Gunnamatta Ocean Beach 289 Koonya Ocean Beach 50 London Bridge 62 Portsea Ocean Beach 461 Rye Ocean Beach 110 Sorrento Ocean Beach 235 St Andrews Ocean Beach Projected Annual Visitation Increase This analysis was designed to estimate demand on carpark facilities into the future. Projected growth in visitation to Mornington Peninsula National Park sites was estimated through the use of current domestic and international tourism forecasts sourced from Tourism Australia, Tourism Victoria and Park Victoria open space modelling estimates. A breakdown of the proportions and annual visitation increases for all visitor types is shown in the Table 4.5. MORNINGTON PENINSULA NATIONAL PARK CARPARK CAPACTIY MODELLING PROJECT December 2005 Page 11

12 Table 4.5: Proportion of Visitor Types and Estimated Annual Visitation Increases Visitor Type Proportion of Annual 20 year Total Visits Increase Increase Day Trip Visitors from Regional Victoria 2.4% 0.45% 11 Holiday Visitors from Regional Victoria 6.4% 0.45% 11 Day Trip Visitors from Melbourne 57.5% 1.94% 147% Holiday Visitors from Melbourne 27.8% 1.08% 124% Interstate Visitors 2.5% 2.5% 164% International Visitors 5.7% % 4.6 Modelling Spreadsheet A spreadsheet was used to model how criterion day variables and projected visitation levels influenced carpark capacity to these ten visitor sites over the period The primary function of the spreadsheet was to model vehicle entries and exits on the criterion day based on the criterion day variable information. This indicated how many carparking spaces were being used at five minute intervals between 6am and 10pm, for a given site and year. Where the demand for carparking spaces required was found to exceed the supply of remaining carpark spaces available, the spreadsheet calculated the length of carpark overflow time and the estimated number of failed trips, or cars who were unable to park at the visitor site upon arrival. This model was conducted for 2001, 2004, 2008, 2012, 2016 and 2020 according to projected vehicle entries, carpark size and criterion day information. 5 Results 5.1 Summary of Results The modelling indicated that capacity is likely to be a current issue at two sites and an emerging issue at two sites analysed. Cape Schanck and London Bridge are already considered to be at capacity on peak visitor days (criterion days). Maximum carpark overflow periods at Cape Schanck extend from 30 minutes in 2004 to over 3 hours by The overflow period at London Bridge extends from 40 minutes in 2004 to over four hours in Capacity is expected to become an emerging issue at Gunnamatta Ocean Beach and Sorrento Ocean Beach, although the modelling indicated that capacity should be sufficient for criterion day vehicle entries until after These carpark capacity results are based on analysis of criterion day vehicle entries, average vehicle site-entry patterns, criterion day length of stay information, and the current provision of site carparking spaces. Summarised details of all sites included in this analysis can be found below in Table 5.1. Details of results from this analysis for each site are found in the following sections. It needs to be noted that some sites are likely to be busier than noted on a few days each year, which are days above the 95th or 98th Percentile. Table 5.1 Summary of Criterion Day Modelled Results Site Site Carpark Average Day* 2004 Criterion Day 2004 Criterion Day LOS Spaces Vehicles Length of Stay Vehicles Length of Stay Capacity Problem Cape Schanck Mid minutes 393** 65 minutes YES Fingal Beach Mid minutes minutes NO Flinders Ocean Beach Mid minutes minutes NO Gunnamatta Ocean Beach Mid minutes minutes NO Koonya Ocean Beach Mid minutes minutes NO London Bridge Mid minutes minutes YES Portsea Ocean Beach Mid minutes 1, minutes NO Rye Ocean Beach Mid minutes minutes NO Sorrento Ocean Beach High minutes 1, minutes NO St Andrews Beach Basic minutes minutes NO MORNINGTON PENINSULA NATIONAL PARK CARPARK CAPACTIY MODELLING PROJECT December 2005 Page 12

13 The future situation regarding capacity is shown for each of the sites below in Table 5.2. A comparison between the 95th Percentile Vehicle Entries (it is likely only 18 days per year may be busier) and the 98th Percentile Vehicle Entries (it is likely only 7 days per year may be busier) is shown to illustrate the potential worst case scenarios in terms of high visitation levels to these sites, now and into the future. Table 5.2 Site Cape Schanck Fingal Beach Flinders Ocean Beach Gunnamatta Ocean Beach Koonya Ocean Beach London Bridge Portsea Ocean Beach Rye Ocean Beach Sorrento Ocean Beach St Andrews Beach Summary of Projected Future Situation based on Criterion Day Variables Percentile Used Vehicle Entries Note: Capacity Issues at sites are highlighted in yellow 2004 Criterion Day 2020 Criterion Day Max Min Max Min Failed Vehicle Capacity spaces Capacity spaces Trips Entries Used avail Used avail 95th th th % th % th % th % % th % % th % th th th th th % % th % % th % % th % % th % % th th % % th % % 6 0 Failed Trips 5.2 Cape Schanck MID SITE MEL REF: 257 F10 CAPACITY PROBLEM BY 2020: YES YEARLY VISITATION (2004): 69,856 AV. DAILY VEHICLE ENTRIES (2004): 66 LENGTH OF STAY (35ºC DAY): 65min MAX DAILY VISITORS (2004): 1,061 MAX DAILY VEHICLE ENTRIES (2004): 393 CAR PARKING SPACES: 45 The Cape Schanck precinct at the southern point of the park includes a lightstation, boardwalk, walking tracks, toilets and picnic facilities. The site became part of the national park in 1988 with conservation work undertaken from 1975 to restore the degraded landscape. Basic refreshments are available at the leasee operated lightstation kiosk. There are two gravel carparks at Cape Schanck with parking fees collected all year round through the use of a ticket machine and boom gate. The main carpark was recently upgraded with landscaping and identification of parking bays. Only the carpark in the leased area is considered as part of this analysis due to existing vehicle entry data originating from the leasee. Vehicle entry data at this site was provided by the leasee rather than from the Parks Victoria 2002 VVNM study. This data was derived from 2004 vehicle entries to the site. Cape Schanck Lighthouse MORNINGTON PENINSULA NATIONAL PARK CARPARK CAPACTIY MODELLING PROJECT December 2005 Page 13

14 5.2.1 Criterion Day Overall Results The criterion day results for Cape Schanck indicate that carparking is currently an issue at the site, which will become dramatically more pronounced by 2020 given expected growth in peak day visitation. The length of overflow time on the criterion day will increase from 30 minutes affecting 19 visitors in 2004, to 2 hours 5 minutes affecting 37 visitors in 2012 and 3 hours 20 minutes affecting up to 205 daily visitors by The Criterion Day results are shown below in Table 5.3. Table 5.3 Criterion Day Results for Cape Schanck Maximum Daily Site Visitors N/A 1,061 1,146 1,231 1,324 1,427 Maximum Daily Vehicle Entries N/A Max % of Carpark Capacity Used N/A Min number of carpark spaces available N/A Length of Overflow N/A 30min 1hr 15min 2hr 5min 3hr 5min 3hr 20min No. of Failed Trips (Vehicle Entries) N/A No. of Failed Trips (Visitors) N/A Note: Blue text ( ) indicates that results are based on projected visitation figures figures are based on actual leasee visitation data Criterion Day Vehicle Entries The average pattern of vehicle entries to the Cape Schanck site as recorded by the 2002 Visitor Vehicle Monitoring study conducted at the site is shown in Figure 5.1. There are clear visitation peaks at 11am and 2pm with an average length of stay of 70 minutes at midday, which is consistent with the expected site visitor experience of a walk and visit to the lighthouse. 16% 14% In Out Percentage Daily Vehicle Entries 12% 1 8% 6% 4% 2% Hour of the Day Figure 5.1 Cape Schanck Hourly Arrivals/Departures The following graph shows cumulative visitation to the site over both an average day and the criterion day. Greater gaps between the red and pink lines indicate busier carpark conditions on the criterion day. The x- axis distance indicates the length of stay. Visitors on the criterion day (temperature greater than> 35ºC) tend to stay only 65 minutes compared to a 70 minute length of stay on an average day (temperature less than 35ºC). Criterion day visitors also tend to arrive at the site later in the day compared to the average day. MORNINGTON PENINSULA NATIONAL PARK CARPARK CAPACTIY MODELLING PROJECT December 2005 Page 14

15 10 9 Culmulative Daily Vehicle Entries Criterion Day In % Criterion Day Out % Average Day In % Average Day Out % Hour of the Day Figure 5.2 Cape Schanck Cumulative Traffic on Average and Criterion Days Criterion Day Parking Capacity On the criterion day in 2004, already the Cape Schanck carpark is at capacity during the day between 12.30pm and 1pm, and also at a few different periods during the afternoon. The carpark is at capacity for a total of 30min in 2004 affecting 7 vehicles; however this will increase to 1 hour 15 minutes in 2008 affecting 18 vehicles, 2 hours 5 minutes in 2012 affecting 37 vehicles, and 3 hours 20 minutes in 2020 affecting 76 vehicle entries. The anticipated carpark overflow period on the criterion day in 2020 will span much of the afternoon from midday to 5.30pm Minimum Capacity Available (%) :00 7:00 8:00 9:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 Hour of Day Figure 5.3 Cape Schanck Minimum Available Carpark Capacity As can be seen in Table 5.4, the situation is considerably more severe if the 98 th Percentile vehicle entries situation is considered. This indicates an estimated 124 failed vehicle trips in 2004 increasing to 277 failed vehicle trips by 2020, accounting for 35% of all vehicle trips to the site on the 98th Percentile day. MORNINGTON PENINSULA NATIONAL PARK CARPARK CAPACTIY MODELLING PROJECT December 2005 Page 15

16 Table 5.4 Site Cape Schanck Cape Schanck 98th Percentile Day Vehicle Entries Comparison Results Percentile Used Vehicle Entries 2004 Criterion Day 2020 Criterion Day Max Min Max Min Failed Vehicle Capacity spaces Capacity spaces Trips Entries Used avail Used avail 95th th Failed Trips Note: Blue text indicates analysis based upon 98th Percentile Vehicle Entries 5.3 Fingal Picnic Area MID SITE MEL REF: 259 B10 CAPACITY PROBLEM BY 2020: NO YEARLY VISITATION (2004): 26,205 AV. DAILY VEHICLE ENTRIES (2001): 25 LENGTH OF STAY (35ºC DAY): 110min MAX DAILY VISITORS (2004): 1,061 MAX DAILY VEHICLE ENTRIES (2004): 57 CAR PARKING SPACES: 80 Fingal Picnic Area is located 2km north of Cape Schanck. This area was originally subdivided for housing but was re-purchased by the government between 1974 and Walking tracks lead to lookouts with views of cliffs and Fingal Beach, which is exposed at low tide. The site has picnic tables, toilet facilities, shelter, electric BBQ s and a grassed open space that ensures this site is popular with young families. The picnic ground carpark is a dispersed gravel parking area with bays designed to be in close proximity to picnic and BBQ facilities Criterion Day Overall Results The criterion day results for Fingal Picnic Area indicate that carpark capacity is not currently an issue at this site and is not expected to become a problem before The analysis shows that the site car park generally only reaches 17.5% capacity on peak days in 2004, 2 by 2012 and 25% by The Criterion Day results are shown below in Table 5.5 Table 5.5 Criterion Day Results for Fingal Picnic Area Maximum Daily Site Visitors Maximum Daily Vehicle Entries Max % of Carpark Capacity Used 17.5% 17.5% % 25. Min number of carpark spaces available Length of Overflow No. of Failed Trips (Vehicle Entries) No. of Failed Trips (Visitors) Note: Blue text ( ) indicates that results are based on projected visitation figures results are based on actual vehicle monitoring data Criterion Day Vehicle Entries The average pattern of vehicle entries to the Fingal Picnic Area is shown in the graph below. Visitation reaches a peak at 2pm with an average length of stay of 45min. MORNINGTON PENINSULA NATIONAL PARK CARPARK CAPACTIY MODELLING PROJECT December 2005 Page 16

17 18% 16% In Out Percentage Daily Vehicle Entries 14% 12% 1 8% 6% 4% 2% Hour of the Day Figure 5.4 Fingal Picnic Area Hourly Arrivals/Departures (As recorded by 2002 VVNM study) Visitors on the criterion day (temperature > 35ºC) tend to stay much longer, with 110min the average length of stay as shown in the graph below. Peak site visitation on the criterion day is at 1pm with visits more likely to occur in the early morning or early evening compared to average day visitation Culmulative Daily Vehicle Entries Criterion Day In % Criterion Day Out % Average Day In % Average Day Out % Hour of the Day Figure 5.5 Fingal Picnic Area Cumulative Traffic on Average and Criterion Days Criterion Day Parking Capacity On the criterion day in 2004, over 82% of the Fingal Picnic Area carpark is available for visitors for the entire day. Carpark usage reaches a peak at 3pm with 66 available spaces. This is only expected to decrease marginally over the following 16 years with available carpark usage on criterion days to 8 in 2012 and 75% in As a result, capacity is not considered to be an issue at the Fingal Picnic Area during the foreseeable future. MORNINGTON PENINSULA NATIONAL PARK CARPARK CAPACTIY MODELLING PROJECT December 2005 Page 17

18 Minimum Capacity Available (%) :00 7:00 8:00 9:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 Hour of Day Figure 5.6 Fingal Picnic Area Minimum Available Carpark Capacity Flinders Ocean Beach MID SITE MEL REF: 261 K11 CAPACITY PROBLEM BY 2020: NO YEARLY VISITATION (2004): 85,953 AV. DAILY VEHICLE ENTRIES (2001): 81 LENGTH OF STAY (35ºC DAY): 80min MAX DAILY VISITORS (2004): 626 MAX DAILY VEHICLE ENTRIES (2004): 251 CAR PARKING SPACES: 110 (2 carparks) Flinders Ocean Beach is situated in close proximity to the Flinders township and borders the Flinders Golf Course, navel land and private residences. This site and adjoining golf course was reserved as public land in 1923 with the Bass Park Trust being passed by Parliament. The trust later ceded management of the site to Parks Victoria for incorporation within the National Park. The Ocean Beach is accessed via the Golf Links Road which forms a one-way scenic drive outside the park boundary along the clifftop through Flinders Golf Course. Flinders Ocean Beach The site contains toilet facilities, a hangglider ramp and two main carparks (Lower Beach and King Street). The large gravelled Lower Beach carpark is popular with families and split into two separate areas, each with different beach access points. A separate carpark is located next to the hanggliding ramp along Golf Links Road. For the purposes of this analysis, these two carparks will form the basis for determining the Flinders Ocean Beach site carpark capacity. Visitors can also access the coastline from a smaller bitumen carpark located on the headland at King Street and via a gravelled carpark located nearby at West Head. These carparks were excluded from the analysis due to their greater distance from the Flinders Ocean Beach main visitor node where visitor vehicle monitoring was conducted. There has been significant development in the area over recent years and if this local boom continues then projected increases in visitation may need to be increased above the park average. As a result, this analysis may need to be repeated for this site in five years if this trend of local population growth continues. Alternatively, a higher projected visitation increase could be applied to existing figures. MORNINGTON PENINSULA NATIONAL PARK CARPARK CAPACTIY MODELLING PROJECT December 2005 Page 18

19 5.4.1 Criterion Day Overall Results The criterion day results for Flinders Ocean Beach indicate that site carpark capacity is not currently an issue and is not expected to become a problem before The analysis shows that the site car park generally only reaches 4 capacity on peak days in 2004, and is expected to reach 45% by 2012 and 54% by The Criterion Day results are shown below in Table 5.6. Table 5.6 Criterion Day Results for Flinders Ocean Beach Maximum Daily Site Visitors Maximum Daily Vehicle Entries Max % of Carpark Capacity Used 31.9% % 45.5% 50.9% 53.6% Min number of carpark spaces available Length of Overflow No. of Failed Trips (Vehicle Entries) No. of Failed Trips (Visitors) Note: Blue text ( ) indicates that results are based on projected visitation figures results are based on actual vehicle monitoring data Criterion Day Vehicle Entries The pattern of vehicle entries to the Flinders Ocean Beach site is shown in the graph below. There is a visitation peak at 2pm and an average length of stay of 60mins. 2 18% In Out 16% Percentage Daily Vehicle Entries 14% 12% 1 8% 6% 4% 2% Hour of the Day Figure 5.7 Flinders Ocean Beach Hourly Arrivals/Departures (2002 VVNM study) Interestingly, the visitation peak on the criterion day (temperature > 35ºC) is at 4pm with an average length of stay of 80min as shown in the graph below. MORNINGTON PENINSULA NATIONAL PARK CARPARK CAPACTIY MODELLING PROJECT December 2005 Page 19

20 10 9 Culmulative Daily Vehicle Entries Criterion Day In % Criterion Day Out % Average Day In % Average Day Out % Hour of the Day Figure 5.8 Flinders Ocean Beach Cumulative Traffic on Average and Criterion Days Criterion Day Parking Capacity On the criterion day in 2004, 6 of the Flinders Ocean Beach carpark is available for visitors over the entire day. Carpark usage reaches a peak at 3.35pm with 66 available spaces. This is expected to decrease over the following 16 years without reaching capacity level. Peak carpark usage on criterion days will reach 45.5% in 2012 and 53.6% in As a result, capacity is not expected to be an issue on criterion days over the next sixteen years given projected increases in site visitation Minimum Capacity Available (%) :00 7:00 8:00 9:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 Hour of Day Figure 5.9 Flinders Ocean Beach Minimum Available Carpark Capacity MORNINGTON PENINSULA NATIONAL PARK CARPARK CAPACTIY MODELLING PROJECT December 2005 Page 20

21 5.5 Gunnamatta Ocean Beach MID SITE MEL REF: 258 E1 CAPACITY PROBLEM BY 2020: NO YEARLY VISITATION (2004): 348,493 AV. DAILY VEHICLE ENTRIES (2001): 327 LENGTH OF STAY (35ºC DAY): 140min MAX DAILY VISITORS (2004): 2,115 MAX DAILY VEHICLE ENTRIES (2004): 798 CAR PARKING SPACES: 289 (2 carparks) Gunnamatta Ocean Beach is located northwest of Cape Schanck and is accessed via Truemans Road. The site is a popular surf beach attracting predominately surfers and fisherman, but is also used by sightseers and swimmers. Gunnamatta Surf Life Saving Club is located onsite and club lifeguards patrol the surf beach during school holiday periods and on weekends from November until Easter. An ongoing issue for visitors at the site is the Melbourne Water Outfall Discharge located over 1km northwest of the Lifesaving Club beach access point. Gunnamatta Ocean Beach The site contains two carparks located in the broad interdune corridor between the primary and secondary dunes. Parking fees are collected at the site entrance toll booth during summer when visitation levels are high. There is a smaller and larger carpark, each with separate toilet/shower blocks and beach access routes. The smaller carpark was re-developed approximately five years ago with an altered beach access route and a new toilet/shower/changing block developed. The main carpark comprises of a large bitumen area with poorly defined carparking spaces (i.e. poor line marking) and minimal landscaping. There are two beach access routes from this carpark which also includes a toilet/shower/changing block and the Surf Lifesaving Club Criterion Day Overall Results The modelled criterion day results for Gunnamatta Ocean Beach indicate that carpark capacity is currently not an issue at this site and is unlikely to become a peak day concern before 2020 despite expected growth in visitation. This analysis shows that the Car Park generally only reaches 63% capacity on criterion days at present but this will increase to 72% by 2012 and 84% by It should be noted that anecdotal evidence from field staff and site visits on peak days indicates that carpark capacity is occasionally already a concern during summer. The Criterion Day modelled results are shown below in Table 5.7. Table 5.7 Criterion Day Results for Gunnamatta Ocean Beach Maximum Daily Site Visitors 1,995 2,115 2,315 2,490 2,683 2,896 Maximum Daily Vehicle Entries ,073 Max % of Carpark Capacity Used 57.8% 62.6% 67.5% 72.3% 78.9% 84.1% Min number of carpark spaces available Length of Overflow No. of Failed Trips (Vehicle Entries) No. of Failed Trips (Visitors) Note: Blue text ( ) indicates that results are based on projected visitation figures results are based on actual vehicle monitoring data Criterion Day Vehicle Entries The average pattern of vehicle entries to Gunnamatta Ocean Beach is shown in the graph below. Site visitation peaks between 11am and 2pm with an average length of stay of 100min. MORNINGTON PENINSULA NATIONAL PARK CARPARK CAPACTIY MODELLING PROJECT December 2005 Page 21

22 2 18% In Out 16% Percentage Daily Vehicle Entries 14% 12% 1 8% 6% 4% 2% Hour of the Day Figure 5.10 Gunnamatta Ocean Beach Hourly Arrivals/Departures (2002 VVNM study) Visitors on the criterion day (temperature > 35ºC) tend to stay much longer, with 140min the average length of stay as shown in the graph below. Peak site visitation on the criterion day is at around 11am Culmulative Daily Vehicle Entries Criterion Day In % Criterion Day Out % Average Day In % Average Day Out % Hour of the Day Figure 5.11 Gunnamatta Ocean Beach Cumulative Traffic on Average and Criterion Days Criterion Day Parking Capacity On the criterion day in 2004, modelling indicates that 33% of the Gunnamatta Ocean Beach total carparking area is available for visitors over the entire day. Carpark usage reaches a peak at 5.25pm with 108 available spaces. This is expected to decrease considerably over the following 12 years with peak carpark usage on criterion days to reach 72.3% in 2012 and 84.1% by 2020, when a minimum of 46 spaces will be available throughout the criterion day. MORNINGTON PENINSULA NATIONAL PARK CARPARK CAPACTIY MODELLING PROJECT December 2005 Page 22

23 Minimum Capacity Available (%) :00 7:00 8:00 9:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 Hour of Day Figure 5.12 Gunnamatta Ocean Beach Minimum Available Carpark Capacity As can be seen in Table 5.8, capacity does become an issue at Gunnamatta Ocean Beach when the 98 th Percentile vehicle entries situation is considered. The analysis indicates that there will be an overflow at Gunnamatta Ocean Beach soon after 2012 on the 98 th Percentile day. This analysis indicates that there will be 18 failed trips to the site by 2016 and 66 failed trips by 2020 on the 98 th Percentile day. In 2020, this will account for 4.5% of all vehicle trips to the site. Table 5.8 Site Gunnamatta Ocean Beach Gunnamatta Ocean Beach 98th Percentile Day Vehicle Entries Comparison Results Percentile Used Vehicle Entries 2004 Criterion Day 2012 Criterion Day Max Min Max Min Failed Vehicle Capacity spaces Capacity spaces Trips Entries Used avail Used avail 95th % % th % Failed Trips Site Gunnamatta Ocean Beach Percentile Used Vehicle Entries 2016 Criterion Day 2020 Criterion Day Max Min Max Min Failed Vehicle Capacity spaces Capacity spaces Trips Entries Used avail Used avail 95th % % th Failed Trips Note: Blue text indicates analysis based upon 98th Percentile Vehicle Entries Gunnamatta Ocean Beach was the only site where summer fee collection figures from were significantly higher than the 2004 criterion day figures projected from counter data. A comparison between 95 th and 98 th Percentile visitation for toll-booth data, and Criterion Day vehicle entries projected from vehicle monitoring for 2004 is found below in Table 5.9. Table 5.9 Gunnamatta Ocean Beach Fee Collection and Vehicle Monitoring Data Comparison Vehicle Entries 2004 Criterion Day Max Capacity Used Min spaces avail Criterion Day from Vehicle Monitoring data - 95 th Percentile % Criterion Day from Fee Collection data 95 th Percentile Vehicle Entries % 64 0 Criterion Day from Fee Collection data 98 th Percentile Vehicle Entries % 31 0 Note: Blue text indicates analysis based upon Fee Collection Vehicle Entries Failed Trips MORNINGTON PENINSULA NATIONAL PARK CARPARK CAPACTIY MODELLING PROJECT December 2005 Page 23

24 As can be seen in Table 5.10 which shows the projected situation based on fee collection data, the 95 th Percentile fee collection data suggests that carpark capacity will be exceeded by 2016 on the 95 th Percentile day. This analysis indicates that there will be three failed trips to the site by 2016 and 36 failed trips by 2020 on the 95 th Percentile day. The 98 th Percentile fee collection data is a greater concern as the site reaches capacity by 2008 with 7 failed trips and an overflow period of 20 minutes. This will increase to 40 failed trips by 2012, 94 by 2016 and 167 by 2020 (overflow period of 5hrs 20 min) on the 98 th Percentile Day based on fee collection data. Table 5.10 Gunnamatta Ocean Beach Fee Collection Projection Criterion Day from Vehicle Monitoring data 95 th Percentile Vehicle Entries Criterion Day from Fee Collection data 95 th Percentile Vehicle Entries Criterion Day from Fee Collection data 98 th Percentile Vehicle Entries Criterion Day from Vehicle Monitoring data 95 th Percentile Vehicle Entries Criterion Day from Fee Collection data 95 th Percentile Vehicle Entries Criterion Day from Fee Collection data 98 th Percentile Vehicle Entries Vehicle Entries 2008 Criterion Day 2012 Criterion Day Max Min Max Min Failed Vehicle Capacity spaces Capacity spaces Trips Entries Used avail Used avail % % % % Vehicle Entries 2016 Criterion Day 2020 Criterion Day Max Min Max Min Failed Vehicle Capacity spaces Capacity spaces Trips Entries Used avail Used avail % % Failed Trips Failed Trips Note: Blue text indicates analysis based upon Fee Collection Vehicle Entries The overall analysis indicates that Gunnamatta Ocean Beach will face capacity issues over the next 15 years on the criterion day. The more recent fee collection data may indicate that the site is busier than projected from vehicle monitoring data which could result in the site reaching capacity on hot summer days sooner than expected. 5.6 Koonya Ocean Beach MID SITE MEL REF: 261 E11 CAPACITY PROBLEM BY 2020: NO YEARLY VISITATION (2004): 246,221 AV. DAILY VEHICLE ENTRIES (2001): 231 LENGTH OF STAY (35ºC DAY): 35min MAX DAILY VISITORS (2004): 1,359 MAX DAILY VEHICLE ENTRIES (2004): 503 CAR PARKING SPACES: 50 Koonya Beach faces Bass Strait south east of Sorrento Ocean Beach and can be accessed via Hughes Rd. The site has two carparking areas. The sealed top carpark has undefined parking bays has an ocean lookout and limited bench seating providing a good spot for visitors to check surf conditions. Beach access is via a steep track, which leads to an unpatrolled surf beach. The gravel lower carpark has undefined bays and includes a toilet block in average condition. Koonya Ocean Beach Criterion Day Overall Results The modelled criterion day results for Koonya Ocean Beach indicate that carpark capacity is currently not an issue at the site and is not expected to be by This analysis shows that the Car Park generally only reaches 56% capacity on criterion days at present and this will increase gradually to 64% by 2012 and 74% by The Criterion Day results are shown below in Table MORNINGTON PENINSULA NATIONAL PARK CARPARK CAPACTIY MODELLING PROJECT December 2005 Page 24

25 Table 5.11 Criterion Day Results for Koonya Ocean Beach Maximum Daily Site Visitors 1,258 1,359 1,460 1,570 1,692 1,826 Maximum Daily Vehicle Entries Max % of Carpark Capacity Used Min number of carpark spaces available Length of Overflow No. of Failed Trips (Vehicle Entries) No. of Failed Trips (Visitors) Note: Blue text ( ) indicates that results are based on projected visitation figures results are based on actual vehicle monitoring data Criterion Day Vehicle Entries The pattern of vehicle entries to Koonya Ocean Beach is shown in the graph below. Daily visitation to Koonya Ocean Beach peaks at 1pm with an average length of stay of just ten minutes, indicating that many visitors to this site are checking the surf conditions or sightseeing before heading to other ocean beaches such as Sorrento. 2 18% In Out 16% Percentage Daily Vehicle Entries 14% 12% 1 8% 6% 4% 2% Hour of the Day Figure 5.13 Koonya Ocean Beach Hourly Arrivals/Departures (2002 VVNM study) Visitors on the criterion day (temperature > 35ºC) tend to a little longer, with 35 minutes the average length of stay as shown in the graph below. There are numerous peaks in site visitation on the criterion day, particularly early in the morning (7am-8am) which is consistent with the expected visitor use of this site. MORNINGTON PENINSULA NATIONAL PARK CARPARK CAPACTIY MODELLING PROJECT December 2005 Page 25

26 10 9 Culmulative Daily Vehicle Entries Criterion Day In % Criterion Day Out % Average Day In % Average Day Out % Hour of the Day Figure 5.14 Koonya Ocean Beach Cumulative Traffic on Average and Criterion Days Criterion Day Parking Capacity On the criterion day in 2004, modelling indicates that approximately 44% of the Koonya Ocean Beach carpark area is available for visitors over the entire day. Carpark usage reaches a peak at 3.45pm with 22 available carparking spaces. This is expected to decrease marginally over the following 12 years with peak carpark usage on criterion days to reach 64% in 2012 and 74% by 2020 when there will be a minimum of just 13 carparking spaces available throughout the criterion day. While this site attracts considerable visitation, the short duration of stay means that carpark capacity is not expected be an issue for the foreseeable future. A significant increase in average stay duration at this site would probably result in future carpark capacity issues Minimum Capacity Available (%) :00 7:00 8:00 9:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 Hour of Day Figure 5.15 Koonya Ocean Beach Minimum Available Carpark Capacity MORNINGTON PENINSULA NATIONAL PARK CARPARK CAPACTIY MODELLING PROJECT December 2005 Page 26

27 5.7 London Bridge MID SITE MEL REF: 156 A5 CAPACITY PROBLEM BY 2020: YES YEARLY VISITATION (2004): 154,931 AV. DAILY VEHICLE ENTRIES (2001): 146 LENGTH OF STAY (35ºC DAY): 85min MAX DAILY VISITORS (2004): 1,009 MAX DAILY VEHICLE ENTRIES (2004): 374 CAR PARKING SPACES: 62 London Bridge is a popular recreation beach site famous for its nearshore bridge-like rock formation that has been shaped by wave action. It is located northwest of Portsea Ocean Beach on London Bridge Road. The site has a sealed landscaped carparking area with defined bays and a composting toilet facility. Drinking fountains and picnic tables are also provided. The site also includes an ocean view lookout and beach access via a steep track. The London Bridge site is linked to Portsea Ocean Beach by Farnsworth Track, a 1.5km cliff-top walk including a hanggliding ramp and a lookout. London Bridge Criterion Day Overall Results The modelled criterion day results for London Bridge indicate that carpark capacity is already an issue on peak usage days at the site given expected visitation numbers, length of stay information and carpark capacity details. The modelling indicates that the length of overflow on peak visitation days is 40 minutes at present but this will increase to 2 hours 20 minutes by 2012 and 3 hours and 45 minutes by The Criterion Day results are shown below in Table Table 5.12 Criterion Day Results for London Bridge Maximum Daily Site Visitors 934 1,009 1,084 1,116 1,256 1,356 Maximum Daily Vehicle Entries Max % of Carpark Capacity Used Min carpark spaces available Length of Overflow 25min 40min 1hr 30min 2hr 20min 2hr 45min 3hr 45min No. of Failed Trips (Vehicle Entries) No. of Failed Trips (Visitors) Note: Blue text ( ) indicates that results are based on projected visitation figures results are based on actual vehicle monitoring data Criterion Day Vehicle Entries The pattern of vehicle entries to London Bridge is shown in the graph below. Site visitation peaks between 2pm and 3pm in the afternoon with an average length of stay duration of 35 minutes. MORNINGTON PENINSULA NATIONAL PARK CARPARK CAPACTIY MODELLING PROJECT December 2005 Page 27

28 2 18% In Out 16% Daily Percentage Vehicle Entries 14% 12% 1 8% 6% 4% 2% Hour of the Day Figure 5.16 London Bridge Hourly Arrivals/Departures (2002 VVNM study) Visitors on the criterion day (temperature > 35ºC) tend to stay much longer, with 85min the average length of stay as shown in the graph below. There are a couple of peak period of site visitation on the criterion day at 10am and 2pm Culmulative Daily Vehicle Entries Criterion Day In % Criterion Day Out % Average Day In % Average Day Out % Hour of the Day Figure 5.17 London Bridge Cumulative Traffic on Average and Criterion Days Criterion Day Parking Capacity On the criterion day in 2004, modelling indicates that carparking at the site is already at capacity with an overflow period of 40 minutes which is expected to affect nearly three percent of site visitors. This overflow period will increase to an hour and a half by 2008, 2 hours 45 minutes by 2016 and 3 hours 45 minutes by 2020, where overflow will affect 15% of daily site visitors. The site is more of tourist and local user destination compared to other ocean beaches, but modelling shows that the site is already at capacity on criterion day (temperature > 35ºC). This is primarily driven by length of stay information with visitors staying 85 minutes on the criterion day (temperature > 35ºC) compared a 35 minutes length of stay duration on an average day for this site (temperature < 35ºC). The small carpark size makes this site particularly sensitive to length of stay variations. As a result, a shorter length of stay would lessen the overflow period and the number of failed trips while a longer length of stay would extend the capacity problems. MORNINGTON PENINSULA NATIONAL PARK CARPARK CAPACTIY MODELLING PROJECT December 2005 Page 28

29 Minimum Capacity Available (%) :00 7:00 8:00 9:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 Hour of Day Figure 5.18 London Bridge Minimum Available Carpark Capacity As can be seen in Table 5.13, the situation is considerably more severe if the 98 th Percentile vehicle entries situation is considered. This indicates an estimated 76 failed vehicle trips in 2004 increasing to 195 failed vehicle trips by 2020, accounting for 3 of all vehicle trips to the site on the 98th Percentile day. As noted earlier, these results are very sensitive to length of stay information due to the small carpark at this site. Table 5.13 Site London Bridge London Bridge 98th Percentile Day Vehicle Entries Comparison Results Percentile Used Vehicle Entries 2004 Criterion Day 2020 Criterion Day Max Min Max Min Failed Vehicle Capacity spaces Capacity spaces Trips Entries Used avail Used avail 95th th Failed Trips Note: Blue text indicates analysis based upon 98th Percentile Vehicle Entries 5.8 Portsea Ocean Beach MID SITE MEL REF: 156 C6 CAPACITY PROBLEM BY 2020: NO YEARLY VISITATION (2004): 464,577 AV. DAILY VEHICLE ENTRIES (2001): 436 LENGTH OF STAY (35ºC DAY): 85min MAX DAILY VISITORS (2004): 2,966 MAX DAILY VEHICLE ENTRIES (2004): 1,098 CAR PARKING SPACES: 461 (4 carparks) Portsea Ocean Beach is a large surf beach site located at the end of Back Beach Road. The site is a popular surf beach in summer attracting predominately surfers and swimmers, but also hanggliders, fishermen, walkers and sightseers. The Portsea Surf Lifesaving Club is located at the site with lifeguards patrolling the beach during summer holidays and on weekends from November to Easter. The Iron-Man Challenge event held at the site each year results in very high visitation but over a very short period of time. Portsea Ocean Beach The site includes four sealed carparks, all in very good or excellent condition with defined parking bays. Parking fees are collected at the site entrance tollbooth in summer during high visitation periods. Two toilet/shower/changing blocks are provided at the Lower and Middle Carparks. Picnic tables, viewing platforms, beach access tracks and drinking fountains are also provided at the site with the Farnsworth Walking Track providing a pedestrian link to the London Bridge site. MORNINGTON PENINSULA NATIONAL PARK CARPARK CAPACTIY MODELLING PROJECT December 2005 Page 29

30 5.8.1 Criterion Day Overall Results The criterion day results for Portsea Ocean Beach indicate that site carpark capacity is not currently an issue and is not expected to become a problem before The analysis shows that the site car park generally only reaches 43% capacity on peak days in 2004, and is expected to reach 54% by 2012 and 62% by The Criterion Day results are shown below in Table Table 5.14 Criterion Day Results for Portsea Ocean Beach Maximum Daily Site Visitors 2,746 2,996 3,186 3,427 3,692 3,985 Maximum Daily Vehicle Entries 1,017 1,098 1,180 1,269 1,368 1,476 Max % of Carpark Capacity Used % 50.1% 53.6% 58.1% 62.3% Min number of carpark spaces available Length of Overflow No. of Failed Trips (Vehicle Entries) No. of Failed Trips (Visitors) Note: Blue text ( ) indicates that results are based on projected visitation figures results are based on actual vehicle monitoring data Criterion Day Vehicle Entries The pattern of vehicle entries to Portsea Ocean Beach is shown in the graph below. Visitation peaks at midday and visitors stay an average 55 minutes at the site. 2 18% In Out 16% Percentage Daily Vehicle Entries 14% 12% 1 8% 6% 4% 2% Hour of the Day Figure 5.19 Portsea Ocean Beach Hourly Arrivals/Departures (2002 VVNM study) The visitation peak on the criterion day (temperature > 35ºC) is at 11am with an average length of stay of 85min as shown in the graph below. MORNINGTON PENINSULA NATIONAL PARK CARPARK CAPACTIY MODELLING PROJECT December 2005 Page 30

31 10 9 Culmulative Daily Vehicle Entries Criterion Day In % Criterion Day Out % Average Day In % Average Day Out % Hour of the Day Figure 5.20 Portsea Ocean Beach Cumulative Traffic on Average and Criterion Days Criterion Day Parking Capacity On the criterion day in 2004, over 53% of the Portsea Ocean Beach total carparking area is available for visitors over the entire day. Carpark usage reaches a peak at 3.45pm with 247 available spaces across the four parking areas. This is expected to decrease over the following 16 years without reaching capacity level. Peak carpark usage on criterion days will reach 53.6% in 2012 and 62.3% in As a result, capacity is not expected to be an issue on criterion days in the foreseeable future given projected increases in site visitation Minimum Capacity Available (%) :00 7:00 8:00 9:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 Hour of Day Figure 5.21 Portsea Ocean Beach Minimum Available Carpark Capacity MORNINGTON PENINSULA NATIONAL PARK CARPARK CAPACTIY MODELLING PROJECT December 2005 Page 31

32 5.9 Rye Ocean Beach MID SITE MEL REF: 251 F5 CAPACITY PROBLEM BY 2020: NO YEARLY VISITATION (2004): 520,505 AV. DAILY VEHICLE ENTRIES (2001): 489 LENGTH OF STAY (35ºC DAY): 35min MAX DAILY VISITORS (2004): 2,246 MAX DAILY VEHICLE ENTRIES (2004): 899 CAR PARKING SPACES: 110 Rye Ocean Beach is a relatively small unpatrolled beach northwest of Gunnamatta Ocean Beach accessed via Dundas Street or Sandy Road. The beach is considered dangerous for swimming and is more likely to attract locals and sightseers or those checking surf conditions. The site contains two parking areas, the sealed lower carpark close to the beach and the overflow gravel upper carpark, with a walking track connecting the two carparks. Only the lower carpark has defined bays and beach access is via steps at either end of this carpark. A toilet/shower/change block is situated some distance from the beach near the gravel overflow carpark. Parking fees are collected in summer during high visitation periods. Rye Ocean Beach Criterion Day Overall Results The modelled criterion day results for Rye Ocean Beach indicates that carpark capacity is currently not an issue at this site and is not expected to be prior to 2020 given expected growth in peak day visitation. This analysis shows that the site carpark generally only reaches 48% capacity on criterion days at present but this will increase to 54% by 2012 and 64% by The Criterion Day results are shown below in Table Table 5.15 Criterion Day Results for Rye Ocean Beach Maximum Daily Site Visitors 2,246 2,426 2,606 2,803 3,021 3,260 Maximum Daily Vehicle Entries ,038 1,119 1,208 Max % of Carpark Capacity Used 43.6% 48.2% 51.8% 54.5% % Min number of carpark spaces available Length of Overflow No. of Failed Trips (Vehicle Entries) No. of Failed Trips (Visitors) Note: Blue text ( ) indicates that results are based on projected visitation figures results are based on actual vehicle monitoring data Criterion Day Vehicle Entries The pattern of vehicle entries to Rye Ocean Beach is shown in the graph below. Visitation peaks at the site are at 6am and 4pm with an average length of stay of 20 minutes. MORNINGTON PENINSULA NATIONAL PARK CARPARK CAPACTIY MODELLING PROJECT December 2005 Page 32

33 2 18% In Out 16% Percentage Daily Vehicle Entries 14% 12% 1 8% 6% 4% 2% Hour of the Day Figure 5.22 Rye Ocean Beach Hourly Arrivals/Departures (2002 VVNM study) Visitors on the criterion day (temperature > 35ºC) tend to longer, with 35 minutes the average length of stay as shown in the graph below. Peak site visitation on the criterion day is at around 7am Culmulative Daily Vehicle Entries Criterion Day In % Criterion Day Out % Average Day In % Average Day Out % Hour of the Day Figure 5.23 Rye Ocean Beach Cumulative Traffic on Average and Criterion Days Criterion Day Parking Capacity On the criterion day in 2004, modelling indicates that 44% of the Rye Ocean Beach carpark is available for visitors over the entire day. Carpark usage reaches a peak at 5.10pm with a minimum of 57 available spaces. Available carparking space on criterion days is expected to decrease with peak usage on reaching 54.5% by 2012 and 64.5% by Despite high usage and the relatively low number of carparking spaces, a short average length of stay duration ensures that the Rye Ocean Beach carpark will not face a capacity issue on the peak criterion day for the foreseeable future. MORNINGTON PENINSULA NATIONAL PARK CARPARK CAPACTIY MODELLING PROJECT December 2005 Page 33

34 Minimum Capacity Available (%) :00 7:00 8:00 9:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 Hour of Day Figure 5.24 Rye Ocean Beach Minimum Available Carpark Capacity Sorrento Ocean Beach HIGH SITE MEL REF: 156 J9 CAPACITY PROBLEM BY 2020: NO YEARLY VISITATION (2004): 544,703 AV. DAILY VEHICLE ENTRIES (2001): 512 LENGTH OF STAY (35ºC DAY): 95min MAX DAILY VISITORS (2004): 2,835 MAX DAILY VEHICLE ENTRIES (2004): 1,050 CAR PARKING SPACES: 235 Sorrento Ocean Beach is a popular family ocean beach situated within a natural amphitheatre cliff formation located at the end of Ocean Beach Rd. The site generally boasts clean yet small surf and rock pools that provide a safe swimming environment for children. Rock pool rambling, sightseeing, sunbathing and rock fishing are also popular pursuits at this site. The site has a large landscaped sealed carparking area with defined parking bays. Parking fees are collected at the site entrance toll booth during summer. Facilities provided at the site include electric BBQs, picnic tables, seating benches, a toilet/shower/ Sorrento Ocean Beach change block, an information board and a leasee kiosk operation. Beach access is via a ramp near the kiosk or alternatively a stairway near the toilet block. The popular Coppin s walking track starts at site carpark and takes visitors along the rugged coastal cliff line, past offshore rock stacks, an ancient Aboriginal midden, St Paul's Beach, Diamond Bay and Jubilee Point. Alternative tracks starting in the carpark take visitors to Sphinx Rock, Coppin's and Webster s Lookout Criterion Day Overall Results Modelled results for Sorrento Ocean Beach indicate that carpark capacity is currently not an issue on the criterion day at this site and but will become a concern by This analysis shows that the carpark generally only reaches 72% capacity on criterion days at present but this will increase considerably to 82% by 2012 and 96% by The Criterion Day results are shown below in Table MORNINGTON PENINSULA NATIONAL PARK CARPARK CAPACTIY MODELLING PROJECT December 2005 Page 34

35 Table 5.16 Criterion Day Results for Sorrento Ocean Beach Maximum Daily Site Visitors 2,624 2,835 3,045 3,275 3,529 3,809 Maximum Daily Vehicle Entries 972 1,050 1,128 1,213 1,307 1,411 Max % of Carpark Capacity Used 66.4% 71.9% 76.6% 81.7% 88.5% 96.2% Min number of carpark spaces available Length of Overflow No. of Failed Trips (Vehicle Entries) No. of Failed Trips (Visitors) Note: Blue text ( ) indicates that results are based on projected visitation figures results are based on actual vehicle monitoring data Criterion Day Vehicle Entries The pattern of vehicle entries to Sorrento Ocean Beach is shown in the graph below. Visitation at the site reaches a peak at 11am with a one-hour average length of stay duration. 2 18% In Out 16% Percentage Daily Vehicle Entries 14% 12% 1 8% 6% 4% 2% Hour of the Day Figure 5.25 Sorrento Ocean Beach Hourly Arrivals/Departures (2002 VVNM study) Visitors on the criterion day (temperature > 35ºC) tend to stay considerably longer, with 95 minutes as the average length of stay as shown in the graph below. Visitation on the criterion day reaches a peak at around 11am and 3pm Culmulative Daily vehicle Entries Criterion Day In % Criterion Day Out % Average Day In % Average Day Out % Hour of the Day Figure 5.26 Sorrento Ocean Beach Cumulative Traffic on Average and Criterion Days MORNINGTON PENINSULA NATIONAL PARK CARPARK CAPACTIY MODELLING PROJECT December 2005 Page 35

36 Criterion Day Parking Capacity On the criterion day in 2004, this modelling analysis indicates that 18% of the Sorrento Ocean Beach total carparking area is available for visitors over the entire day. Carpark usage reaches a peak at 2.45pm with 66 available spaces. This is expected to decrease considerably over the following 16 years with peak carpark usage on criterion days to reach 81.7% in 2012 and 96.2% by 2020, when just 9 spaces are available during the peak usage period on the criterion day. Despite a lower carpark capacity and high daily visitation compared with other ocean beaches, the shorter average length of stay currently limits the need for carparking spaces. However capacity is clearly an emerging concern at this site Minimum Capacity Available (%) :00 7:00 8:00 9:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 Hour of Day Figure 5.27 Sorrento Ocean Beach Minimum Available Carpark Capacity Similar to Gunnamatta, it should be noted that anecdotal field reports and site visits indicate that carpark capacity is already an issue at this site on peak visitor days. As a result, analysis was conducted for 98 th Percentile vehicle entries to Sorrento Ocean Beach to evaluate the potential situation on the seven peak visitation days each year. As can be seen in Table 5.17, capacity does become an issue at Sorrento Ocean Beach when the 98 th Percentile vehicle entries situation is considered. The analysis indicates that there will be an overflow at Sorrento Ocean Beach by 2008 on the 98 th Percentile day. Table 5.17 Site Sorrento Ocean Beach Sorrento Ocean Beach 98th Percentile Day Vehicle Entries Comparison Results Percentile Used Vehicle Entries 2004 Criterion Day 2008 Criterion Day Max Min Max Min Failed Vehicle Capacity spaces Capacity spaces Trips Entries Used avail Used avail 95th % th Failed Trips Site Sorrento Ocean Beach Percentile Used Vehicle Entries 2012 Criterion Day 2020 Criterion Day Max Min Max Min Failed Vehicle Capacity spaces Capacity spaces Trips Entries Used avail Used avail 95th % % th Failed Trips Note: Blue text indicates analysis based upon 98th Percentile Vehicle Entries. MORNINGTON PENINSULA NATIONAL PARK CARPARK CAPACTIY MODELLING PROJECT December 2005 Page 36

37 This analysis indicates that there will be two failed trips to the site by 2008 and 41 failed trips by 2012 on the 98 th Percentile day. In 2020, this will have increased to 199 failed trips accounting for 10.8% of all vehicle trips to the site. The capacity issue escalates quickly at this site due to the high visitation numbers and relatively small overall carparking area. Carpark capacity at Sorrento is also sensitive to visitor length of stay due to the high visitation levels and the relatively small carpark. These results indicate that carpark capacity is an emerging issue at Sorrento Ocean Beach and could potentially be a problem as early as 2008 on up to 7 days each year St Andrews Beach BASIC SITE MEL REF: 252 A9 CAPACITY PROBLEM BY 2020: NO YEARLY VISITATION (2004): 104,369 AV. DAILY VEHICLE ENTRIES (2001): 98 LENGTH OF STAY (35ºC DAY): 25min MAX DAILY VISITORS (2004): 884 MAX DAILY VEHICLE ENTRIES (2004): 303 CAR PARKING SPACES: 30 St Andrews Beach is a surf beach located on Paradise Drive in a residential estate between Rye and Gunnamatta Ocean Beaches. It is a small largely undeveloped site with access more difficult than other ocean beaches and swimming considered potentially dangerous due to rips. Most visitors to the site are locals or shortstay visitors checking the surf conditions for Gunnamatta. The site is serviced by a small sealed carpark without defined spaces and a beach access track, however, there are no other visitor facilities. St Andrews Beach Criterion Day Overall Results The modelled criterion day results for St Andrews Beach indicate that carpark capacity is currently not an issue at the site and is not expected to be by This analysis shows that the site carpark generally only reaches 47% capacity on criterion days at present and this will increase gradually to 57% by 2012 and 63% by The Criterion Day results are shown below in Table Table 5.18 Criterion Day Results for St Andrews Beach Maximum Daily Site Visitors ,021 1,100 1,187 Maximum Daily Vehicle Entries Max % of Carpark Capacity Used 43.3% 46.7% 56.7% 56.7% % Min number of carpark spaces available Length of Overflow No. of Failed Trips (Vehicle Entries) No. of Failed Trips (Visitors) Note: Blue text ( ) indicates that results are based on projected visitation figures results are based on actual vehicle monitoring data Criterion Day Vehicle Entries The average pattern of vehicle entries to St Andrews Beach is shown in the graph below. Daily visitation to this site peaks at 10am and 1pm with an average length of stay of just 15 minutes, indicating that many visitors are probably checking the surf conditions before heading to other nearby beaches such as Gunnamatta Ocean Beach MORNINGTON PENINSULA NATIONAL PARK CARPARK CAPACTIY MODELLING PROJECT December 2005 Page 37