Regional Economic Conditions

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "Regional Economic Conditions"

Luke Fowler
5 years ago
Views:

1 Regional Economic Conditions Jason Bram, Research Officer Community Advisory Group Meeting March 29, 2018 The views expressed here are those of the presenter and do not necessarily represent those of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or the Federal Reserve System.

Private-Sector Job Trends Percent Change From Previous Peak to February 2018 WA MT ND ME CA OR NV ID UT WY CO SD NE KS MN IA MO WI IL MI OH IN KY WV PA VA NY VT NH MA

2 Private-Sector Job Trends Percent Change From Previous Peak to February 2018 WA MT ND ME CA OR NV ID UT WY CO SD NE KS MN IA MO WI IL MI OH IN KY WV PA VA NY VT NH MA RI CT NJ DE MD AZ NM OK AR TN SC NC MS AL GA AK TX LA FL HI PR Down Flat Up to 3% Up 3% to 7% Up More Than 7% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody's Economy.com. 1

Recent Private-Sector Job Trends Year-Over-Year Percent Change as of February 2018 WA MT ND ME CA OR NV ID UT WY CO SD NE KS MN IA MO WI IL MI OH IN KY WV PA VA NY VT NH MA

3 Recent Private-Sector Job Trends Year-Over-Year Percent Change as of February 2018 WA MT ND ME CA OR NV ID UT WY CO SD NE KS MN IA MO WI IL MI OH IN KY WV PA VA NY VT NH MA RI CT NJ DE MD AZ NM OK AR TN SC NC MS AL GA AK TX LA FL HI PR Down Flat Up to 1.25% Up 1.25% to 2% Up More Than 2% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody's Economy.com. 2

Dutchess- Putnam Recent Job Growth in the Region Percent Change from 2017 to 2018, Year-to-Date (Jan-Feb) Strong Growth (>1.5%) Modest Growth (1.0-1.5%) Slow Growth (0.3-1.0%) Little or No Change (<0.

4 Dutchess- Putnam Recent Job Growth in the Region Percent Change from 2017 to 2018, Year-to-Date (Jan-Feb) Strong Growth (>1.5%) Modest Growth ( %) Slow Growth ( %) Little or No Change (<0.3%) Moderate Decline (-2% or less) Steep Decline (more than -2%) Buffalo Rochester Watertown Syracuse Utica Glens Falls Albany Ithaca Elmira Binghamton Kingston Puerto Rico Puerto Rico & U.S. Virgin Islands U.S. Virgin Islands Orange- Rockland- Westchester Bergen- Hudson- Passaic Newark Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody s Economy.com. Middlesex Monmouth Ocean NYC 3

5 Current Economic Conditions FRBNY Business Surveys, Current Conditions 60 Diffusion Index Empire State Manufacturing Survey 0 Mar -20 Business Leaders Survey Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Shading indicates NBER recession

6 Unemployment Rates Seasonally Adjusted 12 Percent 10 New York City New Jersey 8 6 United States 4 New York State Feb Shading indicates NBER recession Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody's Economy.com. 5

7 Labor Force Participation Seasonally Adjusted 70 Percent 65 United States New York State New Jersey Feb Jan 60 New York City Shading indicates NBER recession Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody's Economy.com. 6

8 124 Index (Dec2007=100) Private-Sector Employment Seasonally Adjusted Index New York City New York United States Feb New Jersey Puerto Rico Shading indicates NBER recession Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody's Economy.com

9 Private-Sector Employment Seasonally Adjusted Index 124 Index (Dec2007=100) New York City Long Island United States Feb Orange-Rockland- Westchester 94 Fairfield Shading indicates NBER recession Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody's Economy.com

10 NYC Securities Employment Seasonally Adjusted Levels 290 Thousands Shading indicates time between securities peak and trough Thousands 4, ,000 Total Employment Minus Securities (right axis) Securities Employment (left axis) Feb 170 3, , , Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Moody's Economy.com, and FRBNY calculations. 9

11 NYC Tech and Securities Employment Thousands of Jobs 200 Thousands +14, Securities Employment Jan10 to Sep17 +65, Technology Employment Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody s Economy.com.; FRBNY Staff Calculations Technology Employment Computer manufacturing Electronic shopping Software publishing Data processing, hosting, etc. Internet/web search portals Computer systems design Scientific R&D services 10

12 Manhattan 2016 Employment Location Quotient Manhattan Specialization Employment Change, Location Quotient, and Sector Size Securities, Commodity Contracts, Investments Apparel Manufacturing Information Performing Arts Professional & Technical Services Museums, Zoos & Parks Educational Services Insurance Carriers Food Service and Drinking Miscellaneous Manufacturing Merchant Wholesalers Administrative & Support Ambulatory Health Services Non Store Retailers Nursing & Residential Care Facilities Bubble Size Represents Number of Employees in % -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Percent Change in Manhattan Employment: Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW). 15

13 Home Prices CoreLogic Home Price Index, Seasonally Adjusted 180 Index (Mar2006=100) Kings 120 Manhattan 100 Queens Nassau Jan 80 Suffolk United States Source: CoreLogic Home Price Index (including distressed sales). Shading indicates NBER recession

14 Home Prices CoreLogic Home Price Index, Seasonally Adjusted 160 Index (Mar2006=100) Buffalo Upstate NY 100 Rochester Albany Jan 80 United States Source: CoreLogic Home Price Index (including distressed sales). Shading indicates NBER recession

15 What Lies Ahead for Puerto Rico? Both territories were in precarious shape, economically & fiscally, prior to hurricanes Irma & Maria. Irma & Maria caused substantial damage and disruption: More than 1,000 lost lives, attributable to the storms, in Puerto Rico. Widespread damage to homes, businesses, infrastructure, agriculture. Puerto Rico s power outage has been the biggest, by far, in US history. To begin to gauge the likely economic effect, we look at: How severe have the measured job losses been thus far? How many people left following the storms? and how many will return? What can satellite imagery of nighttime lights tell us about the persistence and geographic breadth of the disruption? 14

16 Net Domestic Air Passengers to Puerto Rico 12-Month Rolling Sum 0-50, ,000 Sep. -150, , , ,000 For the full calendar year 2017, 275,000 more people flew out of than into Puerto Rico about 215,000 above trend. Jan-10 Jul-11 Jan-13 Jul-14 Jan-16 Jul Oct. Nov. Dec.

17 Net Domestic Air Passengers to Puerto Rico 40,000 20,000 0 Net Passenger Flows by Month -20,000-16,951-40,000-60, Monthly Flow Usual Monthly Flow -42,376-44,781-80, ,000-91,958 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 16

Nighttime Lights in Puerto Rico August October San Juan Culebra Vieques San Juan Culebra Vieques Aguadilla Arecibo Caguas Humacao Aguadilla Arecibo Caguas Humacao Mayaguez Mayaguez Ponce Ponce

18 Nighttime Lights in Puerto Rico August October San Juan Culebra Vieques San Juan Culebra Vieques Aguadilla Arecibo Caguas Humacao Aguadilla Arecibo Caguas Humacao Mayaguez Mayaguez Ponce Ponce December January San Juan Culebra Vieques San Juan Culebra Vieques Aguadilla Arecibo Caguas Humacao Aguadilla Arecibo Caguas Humacao Mayaguez Mayaguez Ponce Ponce 17 Source: Earth Observation Group; NOAA National Geophysical Data Center. 17

19 Regional Recap New York City has been the leader in job growth in the region. Areas adjacent to NYC have also seen fairly strong growth. Fairfield County has lagged, while northern NJ has picked up. For the first time in decades, Wall Street has not contributed to NYC s boom; tech has picked up some of the slack. Housing markets have been fairly robust in New York City and parts of upstate New York. Puerto Rico appears to be on a slow road to recovery from hurricanes Irma & Maria. 18

Overview of the Regional Economy

Overview of the Regional Economy Jason Bram, Research Officer Presentation to the Community Depository Institutions Advisory Council (CDIAC) March 9, 2018 The views expressed here are those of the presenter