Winter Package Price Tracking January 2017

Transcription

1 Winter Package Price Tracking January 2017 Background This report examines winter package prices offered by Canada s major tour operators for all-inclusive trips departing from Toronto. Prices were obtained from tour operator websites during the first week of January 2017, and comparisons are made with prices obtained during the same period in The analysis includes an examination of the package prices for all destinations in Cuba, the Dominican Republic, Jamaica, and Mexico for the period spanning February - April These destinations have been responsible for 91 per cent of Canadian visits to the Caribbean/Mexico region during the last four winter travel seasons. All prices in the report reflect the lowest seven-day all-inclusive package price from Toronto based on double occupancy for Saturday departures. Three prices are recorded: the base price, taxes and surcharges, and the total price. When the destination is not serviced on a Saturday, the next closest departure date within +/- two days is selected. For the current analysis, 5,628 prices, broken out by the base, tax, and total cost, were extracted from the websites of the following tour operators. Air Canada Vacations Signature Vacations Sunquest Vacations Sunwing Vacations Transat WestJet Vacations The data presented in this report represents a snapshot of package prices for the winter travel season. It is important to note that this pricing data reflects packages that are available to consumers at the time of the data collection, not actual bookings. As operators continuously adjust prices, the reader should not interpret the prices indicated in this report as the eventual selling price of packages. The actual selling price of a package varies depending on the type of room reserved, if travel insurance is purchased, and whether excursions are added to the package. This analysis is meant to provide insights as to the general direction of prices for the coming winter travel season and to identify which of the four destinations appear to be holding their prices and which appear to be discounted the most. Future Package Price Analysis This is the last report for the current season. The next package price web survey will be conducted in September 2017, and will examine package prices for the winter travel season. For more information, please contact: Jennifer Hendry Senior Research Associate Canadian Tourism Research Institute (613) ext. 324 hendry@conferenceboard.ca The Conference Board of Canada, January

2 Performance of Winter Travel Market From November 2015 through April 2016, Canadians made more than 2.0 million trips to Caribbean destinations, which was -2.7 per cent less than last winter, but more than the three winters prior. At the same time, arrivals in Mexico surpassed 1.32 million Canadians, an increase of 0.8 per cent compared to the previous year. Together, Cuba, the Dominican Republic, Jamaica, and Mexico accounted for 90.9 per cent of winter travel to the region. 91% Arrivals from Canada During Last Four Winter Travel Seasons (November-April) Country Winter Winter Winter Winter % % Share of 2012/ / / /16 Change Total Visits Anguilla 2,189 2,884 2,584 2, % 0.1% Antigua 22,261 21,497 17,822 16, % 0.5% Aruba 30,871 28,935 32,161 28, % 0.9% Bahamas 81,546 92, , , % 3.0% Barbados 47,220 42,964 53,125 53, % 1.6% Bermuda 13,115 13,558 11,860 9, % 0.3% Cayman Islands 17,468 18,492 18,518 16, % 0.5% Cuba 777, , , , % 27.4% Curacao 8,145 9,739 13,137 14, % 0.4% Dominican Republic 526, , , , % 16.7% Grenada 5,254 6,933 7,404 6, % 0.2% Jamaica 264, , , , % 7.1% Puerto Rico 16,254 16,740 16,468 15, % 0.5% St. Kitts/Nevis 4,934 5,615 6,648 6, % 0.2% St. Lucia 26,419 28,317 33,417 26, % 0.8% St. Vincent 4,597 4,107 4,417 4, % 0.1% CARIBBEAN 1,848,807 1,926,641 2,071,224 2,014, % 60.4% MEXICO 1,202,898 1,271,621 1,311,062 1,322, % 39.6% TOTAL 3,051,705 3,198,262 3,382,286 3,336, % Sources: Respective tourism boards and government statistical agencies. Web Package Price Analysis Prices were captured for all properties offered by operators involving a 7-day all-inclusive package from Toronto from mid- February through mid-april Data was collected throughout a one-week period the same timeframe as the past six winter travel seasons. Prices for a one-week package departing on or around the second Saturday of each month were captured. For example, for the month of April, package prices for trips occurring April 8-15, 2017 were obtained. If a Saturday departure was not available, the price for the next closest departure date within +/- two days was selected. Prices for 2,148 properties were extracted for this analysis. This compares to 1,997 properties in January Much of the increase was due to the addition of 79 properties by Signature Vacations, and 46 properties by Air Canada Vacations. Number of Properties by Cuba Dominican Republic Jamaica Mexico Total Air Canada Vacations Signature Vacations Sunquest Vacations Sunwing Vacations Transat WestJet Vacations Total ,013 2,148 The Conference Board of Canada, January

3 Average Package Price Offered The average package price as of the first week of January 2017 for the months of February through April, was $2,074 including all taxes, fees, and surcharges. The prices refer to a one-week all-inclusive vacation to the four countries included in the web price survey each winter travel season. The average price has increased by 3.8 per cent compared to last year. During the period, Sunquest (+8.5%) and Transat (7.0%) posted the largest increases. The base price (excluding taxes and fees) was $1,718 or 4.8 per cent more than last year, but some of this increase was due to a shift in the taxes and fees charged by Sunquest Vacations. Average Base & Total Package Price Each Winter $1,461 $1,716 $1,527 $1,830 $1,644 $1,918 $1,431 $1,775 $1,639 $1,997 $1,718 $2, * * Base Price Total Price Note: Averages refer to the lowest price for a 1-week all-inclusive package from Toronto, based on double occupancy. *Signature Vacations is not included prior to Compared to January 2016, average package prices for Jamaica fell -1.6 per cent, while the average cost for packages to Mexico increased 7.8 per cent. Total Average Package Price by Country (February-April) * * % Change Cuba $1,369 $1,339 $1,222 $1,295 $1, % Dominican Republic $1,876 $1,935 $1,825 $2,002 $2, % Jamaica $2,298 $2,452 $2,211 $2,698 $2, % Mexico $1,905 $2,067 $1,945 $2,145 $2, % Total Average $1,830 $1,918 $1,775 $1,997 $2, % All prices refer to the lowest seven-day all-inclusive package price for Saturday departures from Toronto. Prices are based on double occupancy for four time periods covering the winter months of February to April, and include taxes and fees. *Prices for Signature Vacations are only included in and ; they were not collected in previous surveys. Average Room Rates An increase in outbound travel by Americans and Europeans combined with a lower dollar resulted in significantly higher hotel costs for Canadians last winter. Average room rates in the Caribbean rose to CAD $366 during the November 2015-April 2016 period, an increase of 35.5 per cent. The Canadian dollar fell from USD $0.83 during the winter season to CAD $0.74 in winter Posted rates (in USD) in Turks & Caicos, the Dominican Republic, the US Virgin Islands, and Jamaica saw the highest percentage increase compared to the previous winter. Taking the exchange rate into account, Turks & Caicos, St. Lucia, and the Cayman Islands had the highest room rates for Canadians. In Canadian dollars, the average room rate in Cancun rose 17.5 per cent to $302. The Conference Board of Canada, January

4 Average Room Rates in $CAD each Winter Season (November-April) % Change % Occupancy Jan-April 2015 % Occupancy Jan-April 2016 Aruba $266 $266 $339 $429 $ % 69.3% 68.2% Barbados $409 $417 $448 $510 $ % 73.9% 64.9% Bermuda $239 $233 $260 $300 $ % 39.1% 57.4% Cayman Islands $358 $394 $433 $545 $ % 82.8% 80.5% Curacao $157 $159 $172 $192 $ % 76.0% 70.5% Dominican Republic $131 $123 $143 $169 $ % 82.0% 76.7% Jamaica $221 $220 $267 $328 $ % 78.8% 73.7% Puerto Rico $194 $211 $241 $274 $ % 79.9% 76.6% St. Lucia $281 $332 $386 $612 $ % 87.0% 86.6% Trinidad & Tobago $145 $156 $179 $196 $ % 66.4% 59.4% Turks & Caicos $695 $814 $1,046 $1,270 $1, % 76.4% 66.5% US Virgin Islands $361 $358 $399 $471 $ % 84.6% 79.8% Cancun, Mexico $143 $177 $217 $257 $ % 80.7% 73.7% Caribbean $196 $209 $237 $270 $ % 77.2% 72.4% Sources: CHTA with conversions to Canadian dollars by CBoC. Total Package Price Comparison Compared to last year, the average all in package prices for Saturday departures to the four countries examined increased 3.8 per cent. The increase reported in January 2016 was 12.5 per cent. Not unlike other months, the lowest all-in average package price of the four countries examined can be found in Cuba. Compared to 2016, packages to Cuba offered by WestJet dropped in price, while the prices offered by the other operators increased. Packages to the Dominican Republic (-$2) and Jamaica (-$42) both posted overall price decreases this month. The average cost for a package to Mexico was up 7.8 per cent, mainly due to an increase in prices by Sunquest (13.0%), Transat (12.7%) and WestJet (12.5%). Air Canada and Signature Vacations are offering 53 more properties in Mexico compared to the same period in Compared to last year, Sunwing (1.7%) and Signature s (2.0%) overall average prices increased the least. In contrast Sunquest s average price was up $182, and Transat s average price for both Jamaica and Mexico saw large increases. Average Total Package Price by Operator and Country Cuba Dominican Republic Jamaica Mexico Total Average Price Air Canada $1,385 $1,468 $2,062 $2,266 $3,238 $2,910 $2,223 $2,331 $2,146 $2,198 Signature Vacations $1,258 $1,299 $1,947 $1,887 $2,403 $2,314 $2,126 $2,214 $1,924 $1,964 Sunquest Vacations $1,370 $1,639 $2,120 $2,213 $2,624 $2,902 $2,241 $2,532 $2,140 $2,321 Sunwing Vacations $1,245 $1,285 $1,894 $1,823 $2,461 $2,329 $2,084 $2,175 $1,900 $1,934 Transat $1,177 $1,243 $1,969 $1,919 $2,522 $2,797 $2,115 $2,383 $1,894 $2,027 WestJet Vacations $1,438 $1,406 $2,087 $2,001 $2,720 $2,794 $2,123 $2,388 $2,055 $2,124 Total $1,295 $1,368 $2,002 $2,000 $2,698 $2,655 $2,145 $2,312 $1,997 $2,074 The Conference Board of Canada, January

5 Percentage Change by Operator in Average Total Package Price Cuba Dominican Republic Jamaica Mexico Total Air Canada Vacations 5.9% 9.9% -10.1% 4.9% 2.4% Signature Vacations 3.2% -3.1% -3.7% 4.1% 2.0% Sunquest Vacations 19.7% 4.4% 10.6% 13.0% 8.5% Sunwing Vacations 3.2% -3.8% -5.4% 4.4% 1.7% Transat 5.6% -2.6% 10.9% 12.7% 7.0% WestJet Vacations -2.2% -4.1% 2.7% 12.5% 3.3% Total 5.6% -0.1% -1.6% 7.8% 3.8% Comparison of Average Taxes and Fees At $356, the overall average fees and taxes currently charged by tour operators was basically the same as last year (-0.4%). The year-over-year variance for individual operators is more volatile, however. Last year, Sunquest charged an average of $406 in taxes and fees; this has dropped to $179 following a price restructuring. At the same time, the average base price offered by Sunquest increased 23.6 per cent. At $159, WestJet continues to have the lowest "taxes and fees" of the major operators while Signature ($433) and Sunwing ($434) have the highest overall average. Taxes and fees are most costly for packages destined for Jamaica ($415). Average Taxes & Fees Charged by Operator and Destination Cuba Dominican Republic Jamaica Mexico Total Air Canada Vacations $381 $317 $470 $467 $481 $499 $439 $401 $438 $409 Signature Vacations $319 $380 $399 $460 $413 $500 $364 $430 $365 $433 Sunquest Vacations $389 $167 $449 $193 $453 $219 $379 $165 $406 $179 Sunwing Vacations $324 $380 $400 $460 $412 $500 $367 $430 $368 $434 Transat $336 $340 $436 $447 $448 $469 $390 $396 $393 $403 WestJet Vacations $121 $118 $202 $193 $201 $219 $152 $146 $162 $159 Total $312 $300 $396 $389 $402 $415 $351 $352 $357 $356 Percentage Change in Average Taxes & Fees by Operator Cuba Dominican Republic Jamaica Mexico Total Air Canada Vacations -16.7% -0.6% 3.7% -8.8% -6.7% Signature Vacations 19.3% 15.4% 21.1% 18.0% 18.6% Sunquest Vacations -57.1% -57.1% -51.5% -56.5% -55.9% Sunwing Vacations 17.1% 15.0% 21.5% 17.2% 17.8% Transat 1.2% 2.6% 4.7% 1.7% 2.6% WestJet Vacations -2.5% -4.5% 9.0% -3.8% -1.6% Total -3.9% -1.8% 3.2% 0.3% -0.4% Sources: Taxes and fees as reported on operator websites during first week of January 2016 & Total Package Price Including Taxes & Fees Cuba The current package price survey indicates that the average total package price for a 1-week stay in Cuba from February through April 2017 is $1,368. This represents a $59 increase compared to last month and a 5.6 per cent increase compared The Conference Board of Canada, January

6 to last year. With 86 properties, Transat continues to offer the most options in Cuba and is also offering the lowest overall average package price for the period ($1,243). Average Package Prices for Cuba # of Properties Base Price Taxes & Fees Total Average Price Air Canada Vacations $1,004 $1,150 $381 $317 $1,385 $1,468 Signature Vacations $940 $919 $319 $380 $1,258 $1,299 Sunquest Vacations $981 $1,473 $389 $167 $1,370 $1,639 Sunwing Vacations $921 $905 $324 $380 $1,245 $1,285 Transat $841 $903 $336 $340 $1,177 $1,243 WestJet Vacations $1,317 $1,288 $121 $118 $1,438 $1,406 Total $983 $1,068 $312 $300 $1,295 $1,368 Percentage Change in Cuba Package Prices by Operator # of Properties Base Price Taxes & Fees Total Price Air Canada Vacations % -16.7% 5.9% Signature Vacations % 19.3% 3.2% Sunquest Vacations % -57.1% 19.7% Sunwing Vacations % 17.1% 3.2% Transat % 1.2% 5.6% WestJet Vacations 1-2.2% -2.5% -2.2% Total % -3.9% 5.6% Dominican Republic Average package prices for the Dominican Republic had the least variance of the destinations presented (-0.1%). Compared to last year, four operators have lower overall averages, while the overall average offered by Air Canada Vacations and Sunquest increased. Sunwing ($1,823) and Signature Vacations ($1,887) continue to offer the lowest average prices, both of which have dropped compared to January Transat s average price also dropped the during the period. Even though Sunquest changed its fee structure, which reduced the taxes and fees charged by more one-half, the base fare increased by $350 resulting in a 4.4 per cent increase in their average overall price. Average Package Prices for the Dominican Republic # of Properties Base Price Taxes & Fees Total Average Price Air Canada Vacations $1,592 $1,799 $470 $467 $2,062 $2,266 Signature Vacations $1,549 $1,427 $399 $460 $1,947 $1,887 Sunquest Vacations $1,670 $2,020 $449 $193 $2,120 $2,213 Sunwing Vacations $1,494 $1,363 $400 $460 $1,894 $1,823 Transat $1,533 $1,471 $436 $447 $1,969 $1,919 WestJet Vacations $1,885 $1,808 $202 $193 $2,087 $2,001 Total $1,606 $1,611 $396 $389 $2,002 $2,000 The Conference Board of Canada, January

7 Percentage Change in the Dominican Republic Package Prices by Operator # of Properties Base Price Taxes & Fees Total Price Air Canada Vacations % -0.6% 9.9% Signature Vacations % 15.4% -3.1% Sunquest Vacations % -57.1% 4.4% Sunwing Vacations % 15.0% -3.8% Transat % 2.6% -2.6% WestJet Vacations % -4.5% -4.1% Total % -1.8% -0.1% Jamaica Compared to last year, the average cost of an all-inclusive package to Jamaica has dropped 1.6 per cent. While taxes and fees increased during the period, the overall base price dropped by $55 (-2.4%). Like previous months, Sunwing Vacations and Signature Vacations are offering the lowest priced packages, while Air Canada and Sunquest have the highest average prices for the period. Compared to January 2016, the average package price offered by Sunquest increased 10.6 per cent, while Air Canada s average total price dropped -10.1%. Average Package Prices for Jamaica # of Properties Base Price Taxes & Fees Total Average Price Air Canada Vacations $2,757 $2,411 $481 $499 $3,238 $2,910 Signature Vacations $1,990 $1,814 $413 $500 $2,403 $2,314 Sunquest Vacations $2,172 $2,682 $453 $219 $2,624 $2,902 Sunwing Vacations $2,050 $1,829 $412 $500 $2,461 $2,329 Transat $2,074 $2,328 $448 $469 $2,522 $2,797 WestJet Vacations $2,519 $2,575 $201 $219 $2,720 $2,794 Total $2,296 $2,241 $402 $415 $2,698 $2,655 Percentage Change in Jamaica Package Prices by Operator # of Properties Base Price Taxes & Fees Total Price Air Canada Vacations % 3.7% -10.1% Signature Vacations % 21.1% -3.7% Sunquest Vacations % -51.5% 10.6% Sunwing Vacations % 21.5% -5.4% Transat % 4.7% 10.9% WestJet Vacations % 9.0% 2.7% Total % 3.2% -1.6% Mexico Accounting for approximately 40 per cent of trips to the Caribbean and Mexico, Canadians made 1.32 million visits to Mexico last winter (November 2015 through April 2016), an 0.8 per cent increase compared to the previous winter. So far this winter, a similar volume of Canadians have visited Mexico as last year, but increased prices by all six operators are affecting demand. Current package prices are 7.8 per cent higher than the same period in 2016, and represent the largest proportional increase of the four destinations. While the average fees and taxes have remained stable, the base price is $166 more than last year. The Conference Board of Canada, January

8 With a price of $2,532, Sunquest Vacations is currently offering the highest average price. This is $357 more than the average offered by Sunwing, which at $2,175 is the lowest average package price currently available. With over 1,000 property/ operator/destination combinations available, average prices in Mexico range from one thousand dollars in Manzanillo to more than seven thousand dollars at the gourmet El Dorado Maroma resort in Playa del Carmen. Average Package Prices for Mexico # of Properties Base Price Taxes & Fees Total Average Price Air Canada Vacations $1,784 $1,930 $439 $401 $2,223 $2,331 Signature Vacations $1,761 $1,784 $364 $430 $2,126 $2,214 Sunquest Vacations $1,862 $2,367 $379 $165 $2,241 $2,532 Sunwing Vacations $1,717 $1,745 $367 $430 $2,084 $2,175 Transat $1,725 $1,987 $390 $396 $2,115 $2,383 WestJet Vacations $1,971 $2,242 $152 $146 $2,123 $2,388 Total 977 1,013 $1,794 $1,960 $351 $352 $2,145 $2,312 Percentage Change in Mexico Package Prices by Operator # of Properties Base Price Taxes & Fees Total Price Air Canada Vacations % -8.8% 4.9% Signature Vacations % 18.0% 4.1% Sunquest Vacations % -56.5% 13.0% Sunwing Vacations 8 1.6% 17.2% 4.4% Transat % 1.7% 12.7% WestJet Vacations % -3.8% 12.5% Total % 0.3% 7.8% Package Price Comparison of Four Main Destinations The average package prices in Cancun and Varadero are higher than a year ago, while the price for Punta Cana (-$48) and Montego Bay (-$171) have dropped. The average price offered by Air Canada Vacations for packages in Montego Bay is $504 lower than last January. Signature and Sunwing also have lower average prices for Montego Bay. All operators except Air Canada currently have lower average prices for Punta Cana, while only WestJet has a lower average for Varadero. Average Total Package Price and per cent Change Cancun/Mayan Riviera Montego Bay Punta Cana Varadero Air Canada Vacations $2,332 $2,470 $3,332 $2,828 $2,237 $2,474 $1,370 $1,469 Signature Vacations $2,248 $2,437 $2,510 $2,245 $2,161 $2,077 $1,282 $1,337 Sunquest Vacations $2,321 $2,761 $2,643 $2,654 $2,412 $2,404 $1,358 $1,684 Sunwing Vacations $2,200 $2,365 $2,447 $2,270 $2,109 $1,990 $1,258 $1,304 Transat $2,264 $2,512 $2,528 $2,708 $2,186 $2,061 $1,138 $1,310 WestJet Vacations $2,374 $2,562 $2,593 $2,656 $2,351 $2,204 $1,478 $1,434 Total $2,281 $2,496 $2,726 $2,555 $2,226 $2,178 $1,297 $1,399 *Prices include the base price as well as taxes and fees as of the first week of January each year. The Conference Board of Canada, January

9 Package Price Comparison of Main Destinations Package prices increased in many destinations, but were similar in Cozumel and Santa Lucia, and quite a bit lower in Huatulco, Lucea, and Montego Bay. With an average package price of just $897, Santa Lucia (Camaguey) was the least expensive destination included in the current package price survey. This was followed by Havana ($1,105) and Cienfuegos ($1,106). As with previous years, Whitehouse, Negril, Runaway Bay, and Montego Bay are the most expensive destinations, all of which are in Jamaica. Average Total Package Price by Destination (February through April) Destination January 2016 January 2017 % Change in Average Price # properties Average Price # properties Package Price Acapulco Cancun/Riviera Maya $2, $2, % Cayo Coco/Cayo Guillermo $1, $1, % Cayo Largo $1,093 5 $1, % Cayo Santa Maria $1, $1, % Cienfuegos $1,135 3 $1, % Cozumel $1, $1, % Havana $ $1, % Holguin $1, $1, % Huatulco $1, $1, % Ixtapa/Zihuatanejo $1, $1, % La Romana & Santo Domingo $1, $1, % Los Cabos $2, $2, % Lucea $2,093 3 $1, % Manzanillo $1, $1, % Mazatlan $1, Montego Bay $2, $2, % Negril $2, $2, % Ocho Rios/Runaway Bay $2, $2, % Puerto Plata $1, $1, % Puerto Vallarta/Riviera Nayarit $1, $2, % Punta Cana $2, $2, % Samana $1, $1, % Santa Clara $1, $1, % Santa Lucia (Camaguey) $895 3 $ % Sosua $1, Varadero $1, $1, % Whitehouse $3,193 5 $3, % Total $1,997 1,997 $2,074 2, % The Conference Board of Canada, January