The Great Lakes Megaregion

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1 Megaregion Profile Population and Employment Unlike the Northeast, where all the major urban centers lie on a single corridor, the cities of the Great Lakes Megaregion are more dispersed in a hub and spoke network. At the geographic and economic center of this network is. Behind only New York, has the third densest business district in the nation with more than a half million jobs within two miles of Union Station. The Great Lakes Megaregion has four of the top 25 cities in population (10-mile ring), including,,, and. Beyond the major cities, the Great Lakes Megaregion has dozens of population centers within 400 miles of. This geography is well suited to making connections between the classic passenger rail network and strategic investments in Core Express service. However, unlike fast growing regions in the South and West, most of the cities in this region are projecting stagnant or slow growth. To the extent the Great Lakes regions are growing, most of the growth is taking place beyond the 10-mile city center. Rail investments in the Midwest should be designed to help redirect regional growth to the city centers to the extent possible. A notable exception is, which is projecting 15 percent population growth in its ten-mile zone and 33 percent in its 25-mile zone over the next 30 years. Transit Connectivity With the exception of, which has a robust local and regional transit system, Midwestern cities tend to have lower transit connectivity than either the major urban centers in the Northeast with heavy rail systems or southern and western cities that are building and expanding new light rail networks. Of the ten Great Lakes cities listed in Tables 13 and 14, only five have rail transit systems., with by far the most extensive system, has 30 percent of its population and nearly 40 percent of it jobs in its 25-mile zone within transit accessibility. In, only 4 percent of the population and 12 percent of the employment are transit accessible. Three other cities in the megaregion,,, and, have small light rail systems that add some limited connectivity value to an intercity passenger rail network. A half million jobs lie within two miles of 's Union Station. Table 14 Population Profile for Major Cities in Great Lakes Megaregion 2 mi. 10 mi. 25 mi. Projected 2040 Pop. Rank Pop. Rank Pop. Rank Growth 140, ,680, ,800, % 70, ,340, ,600, % 110, ,200, ,700, % Saint Louis 50, , ,200, % 20, , ,900, % 70, , ,800, % 60, , ,800, % Kansas City 40, , ,700, % 100, , ,600, % 50, , ,500, % Source: America 2050 analysis of 2000 U.S. Census and 2010 Woods and Poole Economics Table 15 Employment Profile for Major Cities in Great Lakes Megaregion 2 mi. 10 mi. 25 mi. Projected 2040 Empl. Rank Empl. Rank Empl. Rank Growth 550, ,220, ,000, % 8 840, ,300, % 190, ,000, ,700, % 150, , ,000, % Saint Louis 110, , ,100, % Kansas City 100, , ,000, % 90, , ,300, % 90, , , % 70, , , % 50, , ,100, % Source: America 2050 analysis of 2007 Bureau of Economic Analysis and 2010 Woods and Poole Economics has the only commuter rail network in the Great Lakes Megaregion. It carries 70 million passengers annually, second only to New York. Within 25 miles from downtown there are 7 million inhabitants and nearly 3 million jobs located within 2 miles of a commuter rail station. 20 High-Speed Rail in America

2 Rail Transit Networks and Population Density of Major Great Lakes Regions intercity 25 ORD 10 commuter 2 mi rail transit airport & symbol AIR pop. density high lower MDU CLE St. Paul Great Lakes MSP PIT STL East Table 16 Transit Accessibility and Ridership by Region Within Transit Accessible Zone Population % Jobs % Avg. Weekday Ridership (Q4 2009) 30 1,130, , , , ,100 Saint Louis , , ,000 9 N/A 170, , ,100 Source: America 2050 analysis and APTA 2009 Fact Book Table 17 Reach of Commuter Rail Network in Midwest Within 2 Miles of Commuter Rail Station Source: America 2050 analysis 21 High-Speed Rail in America Population Jobs 7,300,000 2,700,000

3 Current Passenger Rail Service in the Great Lakes Megaregion St. Cloud Red Wing Winona La Crosse Hiawatha MKE-CHI 740K Pere Marquette GRR-CHI 100K Grand Rapids Holland Kalamazoo East Lansing Flint Birmingham Jackson Ann Arbor Pontiac Dearborn Blue Water PTH-CHI 130K Port Huron Erie Niagara Falls Buffalo Rochester Depew Illinois Zephyr CHI-QCY 200K Glenview La Grange Hammond Summit Dyer Joliet Niles Elkhart South Bend Wolverine PNT-CHI 440K Toledo Elyria Alliance Altoona Fort Madison Galesburg Kewanee Macomb Lincoln Normal Pontiac Rantoul Champaign Kankakee Lafayette Crawfordsville Hoosier State CHI-IND 30K Johnstown Greensburg Cumberland Martinsburg Kansas City Lees Summit Warrensburg Sedalia Jefferson City Washington Quincy Lincoln Service CHI-STL 500K Springfield Alton Kirkwood Missouri River Runner STL-KCY 150K Centralia Mattoon Effingham Carbondale Illini/Saluki CHI-CDL 260K Amtrak Long Distance Proposed High-Speed Ashland Charleston Amtrak Regional Huntington Service Staunton Lynchburg Danville Source: Amtrak ridership data FY 2009 Rail Service The to corridor is the largest intercity rail market in the Midwest, serving approximately 740,000 riders in After that relatively large market, the Lincoln service, connecting to carried 500,000 people in 2009, followed by the Wolverine service connecting to with an annual ridership of 440,000. Plans to upgrade passenger rail system in the Midwest have recently gained momentum after making modest improvements over the last decade. The Midwest Interstate Passenger Rail Commission is an official collaboration between state transportation officials pursuing incremental improvements to the passenger rail network in the megaregion. In January 2010, the FRA awarded $2.6 billion to states in the Midwest to begin incremental improvements to current rail service, including major work on two primary corridors, - and -. The regional air market between and the secondary cities in the Great Lakes megaregion is fairly robust, with more than seven markets serving more than 500,000 passengers a year. The largest single air market among these ten cities is -, with more than one million annual trips (Table 19). Two other regional air markets, - and - are among the top 25 air markets less than 600 miles. While auto congestion plagues many Midwestern metropolitan regions, the relatively long distances between the cities in this megaregion means that the share of congested roadway between the cities is lower than in other megaregions across the country. There is highway congestion on some of the shorter intercity corridors, such as -, however, with only 32 percent of the highway between these two cities operating at over 75 percent of design capacity during the peak hour, congestion is less significant than in other regions, such as California and the Northeast. Plans to upgrade passenger rail system in the Midwest have recently gained momentum after making modest improvements over the last decade. 22 High-Speed Rail in America

4 Regional Air Market and Road Congestion in Great Lakes Megaregion 250K 500K 1m 2m Passengers Per Year Columbus Kansas City Source: Federal Aviation Administration 2009 Table 18 Annual Passengers Originating in and Destined to Airports within the Midwest 5,200,000 2,700,000 2,600,000 1,600,000 Kansas City 1,300,000 1,100,000 1,000,000 1,000, , ,000 Source: America 2050 analysis of FAA 2009 Table 19 Regional Air Markets in the Midwest Annual Passengers to 1,058,393 to 901,196 to Saint Louis 743,985 Kansas City to 649,003 to 592,821 to 560,275 to Columbus 508,940 to 457,209 to 401,594 to 302,970 to 239,984 to Saint Louis 212,122 Saint Louis to 186,313 Kansas City to 177,838 to 40,992 Source: America 2050 analysis of FAA 2009 Table 20 Average Delay Major Midwestern Airports in 2007 (in Minutes) National Airport Minutes Rank O Hare Midway Source: FAA High-Speed Rail in America

5 Scoring of Corridors in the Great Lakes Megaregion Fargo Score Duluth 20+ Essex 10 <1 Rutland Green Bay Rapid City Bay City Sioux Falls Madison Hartford Scranton Stam New York Toledo Elkhart Des Moines Omaha Trenton Philadelphia Atlantic C Harrisburg Lincoln Columbus Baltimore Wilmington Washington D.C. Salisbury Champaign Kansas City Harrisonburg Louisville Blacksburg Lynchburg Evansville Wichita Source: America 2050 Greensboro Scoring of Corridors intulsa the Great Lakes Megaregion Oklahoma City Lubbock Origin Destinations WI IN Score Little Rock MI MN Shreveport Memphis 810,000 7,900, ,000 7,600, , ,000 11,800,000 1,030,000 1,010,000 10,800,000 1,620,000 OH Saint Louis MO PA OH PA Madison WI WI Omaha NE 499 OH OH Baton Rouge ,000 Memphis TN ,000 Kansas City MO Saint Louis MO New Orleans 210,000 Austin San Antonio Dallas Lafayette *Includes annual flights among all airportshouston located along the corridor. Jackson Cumulative Air Market* 660,000 Atlanta Birmingham All the major corridors in the Great Lakes Megaregion have as a major end point. As more of these corridors develop and improve service, will transform from a terminal to a hub, adding value to the entire network. Our study ranks the - corridor as the top corridor in the megaregion. Currently the top performing city pair in the Amtrak network outside of the Northeast, this corridor ranks among the top nationwide, with a score above 19. sible Population in MajorWilmington Nodes Myrtle Beach Columbia 1,840, ,000 9,400, , ,000 8,400, ,000 2,020, ,000 9,300, ,000 1,900,000 3,600,000 40, ,000 2,100,000 40, ,000 6,600, ,000 4,800,000Tallahassee 130,000 7,400, ,000 4,000, ,000 Orlando Pensacola Jacksonville Tampa Top Corridors Raleigh Transit AccesCharlotteTotalFayetteville Total Employment Total Population Greenville Within 2 Miles of within 25 Miles of Major Nodes Chatanooga Major Nodes Fort Worth Odessa Length Newport News Durham Winston Salem Bowling Green Table 21 Amarillo Richmond Centralia Albany Ithaca Dubuque nne Schenectady Syracuse Rochester Buffalo Vero Beach Four other corridors emanating from, all with scores between 16.5 an 17.5 are in the second tier nationft. Lauderdale wide and are strong candidates for HSR Regional, including, (via ), Naples, and Miami. Although all four corridors score in the same range, the - corridor may have the edge, because of the larger air market and the strength of ridership on the - section of the corridor. Corridors in the Midwest that do not include do not obtain scores that suggest viability of HSR Core Express, such as the -Kansas City corridor, - corridor and the 3C s corridor in Ohio connecting, Columbus, and, though they are certainly suitable for improved passenger rail service. 24 High-Speed Rail in America

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