Technical Review Juneau Tourism Futures

Transcription

1 Technical Review Juneau Tourism Futures City and Borough of Juneau Tourism Management Plan November 2001 Submitted by a team led by Egret Communications In association with ARA Consulting Group (a division of KPMG Consulting LP)

2 Table of Contents 1. Introduction Background Assessment of Alternative Tourism Futures 1 2. Defining Alternative Tourism Futures Findings to Date Consultations on Tourism Futures Guiding Principles and Underlying Assumptions For Technical Review The Scenarios Assessing Alternative Tourism Futures Conclusions 31 November, 2001 Egret Communications/ARA Consulting Table of Contents

3 1. Introduction 1.1 Background The effort to develop a tourism management plan for Juneau started with initial consultations in the spring of 2001 with key stakeholders and groups involved in or affected by the tourism sector. This diagnostic stage included an assessment of current tourism activity for both the cruise and destination/regional traveler market segments. As part of the process, case studies from other destinations were prepared to provide information to stakeholders on some of the lessons learned and potential from various tourism management approaches. Cooperation from the Juneau media helped to raise awareness of the availability of this information on the city s web site. The work in this stage concluded with a working paper on the tourism sector and the possible futures Juneau could consider in proceeding with tourism management activities. It was published on the planning project s web site in August 2001 along with the case studies. A broader public consultation program for the public was put in place following the summer tourism season. This included a web site polling capability on tourism issues and preferences intended to provide indications of the concerns as well as the ideas of Juneau s citizens concerning tourism. The web polling was made available to all registered voters in the City and Borough of Juneau and implemented in October As part of the consultation program, web polling was complemented by a public meeting held in early October, 2001 to review the findings to date and discuss tourism trends, types of tourism, and ideas for tourism in Juneau. 1.2 Assessment of Alternative Tourism Futures The next stage in the process to develop a tourism management plan involves an assessment of alternative tourism futures for Juneau. This is a critical stage in the process during which input is sought on alternatives and preferences. Through this working paper, the team is providing an assessment of alternatives, taking into account input on policy and tourism management approaches identified during the consultations to date. This working paper on the assessment of alternative tourism futures forms the basis for a second round of public consultations, as shown in the project s work plan in Exhibit 1.1. This working paper begins with a brief summary of findings to date including the web polling results in Chapter 2 leading to the identification of specific scenarios for assessment in terms of the range of possible impacts, constraints, opportunities and benefits, and constraints. These scenarios are based on several guiding principles adopted for the technical review. In Chapter 3, the scenario assessments are presented, followed by conclusions based on the technical results Chapter 4. November, 2001 Egret Communications/ARA Consulting Page 1

4 Exhibit 1.1: Juneau Tourism Management Plan Project Activities Inception Meeting with Client 1 Review Planning/ Tourism Documents 2 Tourism Sector Status Activities 2.1 Interview Key Stakeholders/Groups 4 Tourism Management/Lessons Learned from Other Destinations 3 Develop Working Paper on Alternatives and Issues for Tourism Futures 5 Workshop with Client 6 Technical Review of Alternative Tourism Futures Policy/Program Analysis Impacts Analysis Constraint & Legal Analysis 8 Public Consultation Program 7.1 Web Site Poll 7.2 First Public Session Review with Key Stakeholders 8.1 Develop Tourism Management Plan & Policy/Program Solutions to Issues 9 Review with Client & Key Stakeholders 8.3 Identify Preferences for Tourism & Issues for Management Second Public Session Web Site Polling and Project Communications Draft Tourism Management Plan Monitoring Plan Dispute Resolution 10 Review with Client & Key Stakeholders 9.2 Identify Plan Policy Solution Adjustment Third Public Session 7.5 Review of Draft Tourism Plan Review with Client & Key Stakeholders Review with Client & Agree on Adjustments 11 Prepare Final Plan & Policy 12 November, 2001 Egret Communications/ARA Consulting Page 2

5 2. Defining Alternative Tourism Futures 2.1 Current Status Juneau Tourism Industry The tourism sector in Juneau is characterized by a very strong cruise tourism segment, generating about 700,000 visitors per year. Much less developed is the destination travel segment. Here, regional and business tourism arrivals provide a significant proportion of all destination arrivals. As such, destination travel was found to be under-developed, which is somewhat surprising given the superb resource base and natural features of the Juneau area. The contribution of tourism to the Juneau economy is significant. Statistics on noncruise tourism are sketchy. However the economic impacts of the cruise industry in Southeast Alaska were assessed in This study reported that approximately $181 million was spent in Southeast Alaska in 1999 by cruise lines, cruise ship passengers and crew. Juneau garnered the largest share, capturing nearly half ($90 million) of the spending, including $75 million spent by cruise ship passengers, $11 million in direct cruise line spending (e.g., for maritime services, port/dockage fees, federal and state fees, local goods) and $5 million by cruise ship crew. Sales tax revenues accruing to Juneau resulting from cruise-related spending were estimated at $2.8 million. The industry also generated an estimated 750 jobs and $15.2 million in payroll in Juneau. Cruise-related employment accounted for 10% of Juneau s basic industry sector, defined as industries that produce goods and services that are consumed by non-residents of the area and attract new money into the local economy. 1 During the course of the initial stakeholder meetings and consultations, it was evident that alternative tourism futures for Juneau must examine a blend of cruise and destination travel tourism, with cruise tourism receiving the greatest attention in terms of the tourism issues already experienced by the population of the Borough. There was considerable interest in the potential for destination travel and the opportunities it offered to the community. It was also acknowledged by many, including several representatives of the tourism sector, that this travel segment was indeed underdeveloped and could grow significantly with appropriate management and support. Perhaps the single most important finding related to the vision for tourism is quality of life. Most stakeholders and groups agreed that tourism offered the community economic benefits and that the challenge was to manage it to enhance their quality of life, not compromise it. This provides an excellent foundation on which to devise a tourism management plan that is proactive is securing the benefits from tourism is partnerships with the industry. 1 McDowell Group, October 2000, The Economic Impacts of the Cruise Industry in Southeast Alaska. November, 2001 Egret Communications/ARA Consulting Page 3

6 The two tourism segments were characterized in the first working paper for this project (see the web site at generally as shown in the table below. Tourism Segment Current Status Cruise tourism About 700,000 cruise arrivals in 2001 Destination travel Growth of almost 10% annually between 1993 and 2000 About 85% of all non- resident arrivals to Juneau in 1999 Highly seasonal May to September Key attractions for cruise passengers include natural beauty and glaciers, flightseeing and sportfishing adventures, visiting the state capitol, and downtown shopping In 1999, about 100,000 nonresident arrivals, and an estimated 53,000 Alaska resident visitors Of these an estimated 40% are business travelers Most business travelers (63%) combine business and pleasure while visiting Juneau Over 1,300 rooms of which majority are hotels and motels (70%) and another 15% are bed and breakfast facilities Strong natural, heritage and cultural resources with diverse attractions Issues and Opportunities Cruise impacts are of concern to many stakeholders, while almost all appreciate economic benefits estimated at $90 million in 1999 and about 750 jobs 2 Impacts include flightseeing noise, congested downtown, water and air quality Volume of passengers in small harbor and downtown space seen as issue by many Positive impacts for economy, opportunities for enhancing downtown and waterfront areas Provides source of fee revenue Nature, culture and adventure tourism together comprise the fastest growing segments for tourism worldwide Juneau has superb natural resources of interest to this segment as well as interesting heritage and cultural resources to provide a diversified experience and, overall, a strong destination experience Pleasant and friendly community adds to appeal Juneau is not positioned to target this market, nor are the travel intermediaries and tourism management mechanisms in place to take advantage of this potential Juneau lacks key private sector infrastructure to be significantly successful in this market, but has tours in place that could serve the market with small modifications. Certainly there is the opportunity to strengthen the destination product by building on this base. 2 See the Working Paper online at November, 2001 Egret Communications/ARA Consulting Page 4

7 2.2 Consultations on Alternative Tourism Futures Since the publication of the working paper on the City s web site, consultation activities have included: The introduction of web polling An initial public session held in early October These findings have also been considered in the technical review of alternative tourism futures for Juneau and are described below Key Web Polling Findings Three polls were conducted in late October through mid November. Registered Voters Students Total Poll 1 1, ,511 Poll 2 1, ,089 Poll The web polls, for the most part, ratified the findings of the team gathered from client and stakeholder interviews on the positions held by the public on tourismrelated issues. They have helped, as anticipated, to clarify priority issues and have strengthened the ability of the planning process to identify common ground and use that common ground as a foundation for tourism planning. As expected, the polls clearly show a bipolar distribution of desired outcomes, priorities, and worldviews. In other words, polls show two groups of highly motivated residents, with strongly differing ideas about how Juneau should relate to tourism. One significant part of the population is focused on jobs, business opportunities, and the economics of growth. Another equally significant part of the population is focused on managing negative impacts, scale, and growth. A more neutral middle population swings from side to side, depending on the topic and demographical issues. A quick read of results, therefore, generally indicates a population that seemingly wants the socio-economic benefits that accrue to Juneau from tourism without the negative impacts. Juneau wants local government to be in the business of managing tourism volume but also indicates that it is not ready to reduce the number of cruise ships calling on Juneau. November, 2001 Egret Communications/ARA Consulting Page 5

8 With the swing vote bouncing from side to side, depending on the issue, the polls indicate Juneau wants to improve tourism economics while reducing the social impacts generated by that tourism. While one part of the population is more focused on economics and another on managing negative impacts, the more neutral segment reinforces both. While these might seem to be competing perspectives (and local discussions often portray them as competing) sustainable tourism planning frequently focuses on increasing economic and social benefits while decreasing negative impacts. Common ground has been fairly easy to find and it is hoped that a plan that secures common goals will enable competing parts of the population to compromise where agendas differ. It is very clear that Juneau residents, regardless of where they stand on other tourism issues, want clean air and water. The common endorsement of clean air and water propelled them to top priority levels in every way the polls tested them. It is clear from the polls that the local population wants to maintain or increase regional and business travel. It is similarly clear that Juneau supports the growth of the destination travel component of its economy (commonly referred to as independent travelers in local discussions). It should be noted, though, that there is a strong message that Juneau does not want this growth out of control, or to be overwhelmed by negative impacts related to destination travel. There is strong agreement that the City and Borough of Juneau should be in the business of managing tourism on behalf of residents. There is, although weaker, the sense that CBJ should manage visitor volume as a part of its role in managing tourism. There is clear division, however, in the directions of that management, with varying viewpoints on the preferred scale of tourism and the goals of management. Responses to questions 14 and 15 on poll 3 show that the population has a wide set of expectations from a tourism plan, but that neither side in the local discussion wants the other side s agenda to dominate the goals of the plan. Both the reduction of flightseeing noise and providing a positive environment for tourism businesses ranked high as priority goals and both ranked even higher on the list of goals that are least important. This may reflect a concern, often expressed in stakeholder interviews, that one faction or the other might own the planning process. November, 2001 Egret Communications/ARA Consulting Page 6

9 Community Goals 3 Rated for contribution to Impact Management and Tourism s Economic Success Factor Impact Management Tourism s Economic Success Safeguarding air and water quality (48%) Direct Direct Reducing flightseeing noise (30%) Direct Direct Providing a positive environment for tourism business operation (28%) Managing Growth so that negative impacts don t get out of hand (27%) Managing tourism to pay for the negative impacts it generates (26%) Indirect Direct Direct Direct Direct Indirect Growing the economic benefits of tourism in Juneau (24%) Indirect Direct Reducing Congestion (23%) Direct Direct Increasing the percentage of destination (including independent) travelers (23%) Indirect Direct Protecting the tourism that Juneau has now (22%) Indirect Direct This team found that while there is significant concern about negative impacts from tourism, that there is little support for scuttling or significantly downsizing the industry. Rather, one can read a clear message from several questions that the majority of those concerned about the negative impacts of tourism want those impacts addressed but that they don t want the benefits of tourism (jobs, economics, business opportunities) to go away. This indicates that, with some engineering of tourism and some relationship building, that Juneau can enjoy reduced impacts AND provide a supportive environment for private sector tourism businesses. 3 From Poll 3, Question 14 November, 2001 Egret Communications/ARA Consulting Page 7

10 The feedback concerning negative impacts is particularly interesting. The majority of people are bothered by flightseeing noise (at least to some degree). Helicopter flight paths cross more residential areas than float plane flight paths and poll responses show a corresponding higher number of residents bothered by helicopter noise. In areas that experience both helicopter and float plane noise impacts, the polls indicate that both bother a significant number of residents. The community calls for a reduction of both helicopter and flightseeing noise in the polls but strongly does not feel those activities should go away. The polls clearly indicate that this is an important set of issues for residents but it is clear that other issues match flightseeing noise in priority. This team reads flightseeing as an issue that must be addressed, however, if tourism is to continue in Juneau. Downtown congestion is clearly concerning to local residents. There is a strong mandate to improve congestion in the downtown area but also a strong concern that a tourism plan might focus on reducing congestion at the expense of economics. It seems that residents are ready for creative solutions that proactively address congestion (and other downtown issues) without sacrificing the benefits that cruise tourism brings to Juneau. The scale and growth rate of cruise tourism is clearly on the minds of people in Juneau. Although there is general disagreement about what scale is appropriate, there is an underlying implication that Juneau needs to exercise some management of this industry and not just be at the whim of sudden changes in volume. While respondents indicated they want to manage the impacts and benefits of cruise tourism, there is openly a segment of the population that feels volume needs to be controlled. One of the concerns of the planning team is related to the speed of action needed to satisfy the local population. Public dialogue concerning some of tourism s impacts has implied a sense of urgency. Among the consequences of international events is reduced capacity of tourism businesses (both international and local) to engage in short term investment. Polling indicates, however, that so long as the public is confident that tourism planning addresses concerns that there will be patience to enable change to proceed in a manner that can be handled by industry and the public sector First Public Session Results Between fifty and one hundred residents of Juneau attended the Tourism Management Planning Open House held on October 4 at Centennial Hall. They learned about the CBJ Tourism Management Project, met and talked with the project team, and shared their thoughts and concerns about tourism in Juneau. Team leader Bob Harvey presented a brief but comprehensive overview of the project at the beginning of each hour. November, 2001 Egret Communications/ARA Consulting Page 8

11 Posted information about worldwide tourism and the experience of other communities with major tourism components in their economies drew the most attention between presentations. Diane Kelsay, from Egret Communications, spent a great deal of time discussing destination travelers and destination dynamics wish session participants. In one-on-one conversations and during the question/answer session at the end of the open house residents expressed a wide range of opinions and concerns. Most seemed to feel that developing a tourism management plan and managing the impacts of tourism is needed. Concern with reducing the negative impacts of tourism and with maintaining and improving the health of the tourism economy seemed equally balanced, both in the number of people expressing these points of view and in the intensity of their concern. Concern was also expressed that the planning team might be for or against a particular side in ongoing tourism debate in Juneau. Large pads and pens were available for people to express their thoughts and concerns in writing. People who left written comments emphasized the need to control and manage tourism to reduce negative impacts. 2.3 Guiding Principles and Underlying Assumptions For Technical Review The team adopted several guiding principles and underlying assumptions concerning how tourism was likely to perform in each of the alternative futures discussed in this working paper. The first set of principles is concerned with the criteria for success as a tourism destination based on the experiences of destinations around the world. This is followed by a description of key underlying assumptions for considering alternative tourism futures for Juneau. Also affecting tourism futures in the short term is the impact of the September 11 events on tourism in the US and this is a consideration for Juneau Success Criteria for a Tourism Destination Tourism development should enhance quality of life Quality of life and quality of tourism product are integrally related. For Juneau s tourism economy to operate in a sustainable manner, it must function in a way that protects the character of Juneau. The actions that protect that character also tend to support quality of life, as perceived by local residents. At the same time, it is not just a matter of protection. Tourism can also contribute to an enhanced quality of life through investments in social, cultural and physical facilities made possible by the revenues tourism brings to the community. November, 2001 Egret Communications/ARA Consulting Page 9

12 Tourism management needs a partnership between the public and private sectors Adoption of a tourism management plan requires the commitment and support of both the public and private sectors. Similarly, ongoing tourism management activity is best undertaken within the context of a collaborative approach or partnership between the public and private sectors. The destination must support tourism if it is to be successful Successful tourism in a destination with a low population requires a sympathetic and supportive local population. Tourism, unlike basic industries, relies on the hospitality and friendliness of host communities as a part of the experience it delivers. Tourism in an unfriendly or unreceptive destination cannot compete successfully for market share nor can it command good prices for product. Therefore, tourism planning must seek paths that win the support of local populations. It is not enough to have a political or social majority supportive of tourism tourism needs broad support. The tourism vision must be grounded in reality While the scenarios have been selected and tested based on local aspirations, they were also tested against how tourism works in a real world. So, testing has reflected tourism trends and past performance under similar situations Alternative Tourism Futures for Juneau Juneau can influence the growth and direction of the tourism sector Management of the tourism sector and its impacts on Juneau to maximize positive impacts are within the reach of Juneau. What is required is a vision for tourism that receives broad support from the community and from tourism sector partners including cruise and destination travel segments. The vision must be easily translated in a realistic and practical approach to developing and managing the sector. Destination travel offers considerable potential for Juneau While the destination travel segment is clearly underdeveloped in Juneau, the Borough has an internationally competitive resource base (marine and land resources) as well as diverse heritage and cultural activities and attractions. Therefore, if Juneau chooses to pursue destination travel growth it is eminently possible to be successful within the context of existing world markets. November, 2001 Egret Communications/ARA Consulting Page 10

13 Juneau s competitive cruise destination position can be compromised Juneau is a preferred destination for the cruise industry. However, cruise tourism trends and volume in SE Alaska waters will not be determined by Juneau s decisions. If Juneau opts to freeze or reduce the number of ships stopping at Juneau, or presents itself in a manner that doesn t feel welcoming, it will hasten the developing of competing ports in nearby waters. These ports, without the baggage of Juneau s conflict with the cruise industry, will be successful in attracting a significant percentage of the existing cruise ships away from Juneau, as well as servicing new growth. The cruise industry, with minor changes in marketing materials and programs, will be able to deliver all of the current experiences (except a visit to the state capitol) outside Juneau The impacts of the September 11 event on tourism Current events introduce uncertainty Uncertainty is the operative word for tourism s short-term future, after the international events of late A truly sustainable tourism economy can survive short-term uncertainty. However, it is more difficult to make economic transitions in a time of uncertainty and much more difficult to forecast. Each of the scenarios was tested for how it would survive during an uncertain transition. Current events will lead to more domestic travel The US is aggressively promoting travel within the US to its citizens. It is expected that overseas travel will decline in favour of the selection of vacations in the US by US residents. Alaska generally and Juneau specifically can benefit from this significant change in attitude and approach to domestic travel. November, 2001 Egret Communications/ARA Consulting Page 11

14 2.4 The Scenarios Based on the findings to date and guiding principles/underlying assumptions, the scenarios developed for testing are summarized below. The scenario assessment is described in Section 3 of this working paper. Status Quo Scenarios Manage for Destination Travel Success Manage for Cruise Travel Success Manage for Destination and Cruise Travel Success Freeze Cruise Travel Volume and Manage for Destination Travel Success Scenario Description Under this scenario we assume a business as usual approach and deal with impacts as they arise. Think of this as the current trends and operating assumptions carried into the future. Under this scenario, Juneau sets out to succeed with destination travel growing volume, developing appropriate businesses, generating employment and managing both benefits and impacts to community and environment. Juneau neither encourages nor discourages cruise tourism growth but responds to social and environmental issues as they arise. Juneau sets our to succeed with cruise travel, growing revenues, developing appropriate businesses, generating employment and managing both benefits and impacts to community and environment. Destination travel is essentially neglected and develops at historic rates. Juneau sets to succeed with both cruise and destination travel, growing revenues in both cases. Juneau actively manages social and environmental impacts and proactively builds infrastructure and programs that make tourism successful with both s and residents. Juneau sets out to freeze cruise tourism volume and succeed with destination travel. November, 2001 Egret Communications/ARA Consulting Page 12

15 3. Assessing Alternative Tourism Futures In this section, alternative tourism futures are assessed against the following criteria: Realistic assessment of tourism sector performance given the assumptions for each scenario. Implications for local goals including benefits, impacts and degree to which the scenario meets community objectives. The degree to which Juneau can manage tourism: likely constraints and legal requirements Policy and program requirements. In terms of local goals and issues, the consultations to date (stakeholder interviews, public session, and web polling input) have revealed the following areas of priority: Benefits Jobs Business environment Tourism spending Impact management Air and water quality Congestion Noise reduction Management issues Cruise scale Tourism pays for its own impact management Destination growth CBJ managing tourism The scenario assessments take these local goals into account. Why have scenarios for alternative tourism futures? This helps to bring into organized and sharper focus the kinds of tradeoffs one can expect from different visions of tourism and alternative management approaches. Thus the scenario assessments are designed to: Provide the public and all stakeholders with a description of the degree to which each alternative tourism future is realistic in terms of market forces, generates benefits versus impacts, meets local goals and aspirations for quality of life, can be realistically managed locally. November, 2001 Egret Communications/ARA Consulting Page 13

16 This review process will help to identify consensus common elements and areas that need particular attention in tourism management. It should also help to generate ideas and suggestions on what tourism should contribute to the community. 3.1 Status Quo Scenario Description Under this scenario, we assume a business as usual approach, and deal with impacts as they arise. Think of this as the current trends and operating assumptions carried into the future Scenario Assumptions and Justification This scenario is studied so that Juneau can understand where current practices are leading and as a comparison to the other scenarios. The status quo takes no action to get underway indeed this is the current path. In setting up the scenario, we assumed that both cruise and destination travel would continue historic growth trends although that did not prove to be true in testing Synopsis of Predicted Performance The conflict between the community and cruise-related tourism continues and increases, damaging Juneau s relationship to the cruise industry and its patrons. The cruise industry begins reprogramming its ships to alternate ports. That move causes downsizing and relocation of tour, service, and retail businesses that serve the cruise lines and passengers. The conflict is especially focused on flightseeing, where it leads to legal actions. Consequently, flightseeing operations are not predictable in Juneau, preventing the cruise industry from advertising or prebooking flightseeing experiences. Flightseeing operations hasten to relocate to alternate ports. Juneau s image becomes tarnished with both cruise and non-cruise travelers. In this environment, investment in destination travel infrastructure does not take place. Juneau experiences a downturn in tourism patronage (cruise and non-cruise) and a reduction in spending per visitor (as flightseeing tours relocate). November, 2001 Egret Communications/ARA Consulting Page 14

17 Status Quo Test against Community Objectives Constraints and Legal Implications Policy and Program Requirements Summary Benefits: Jobs Business Environment Tourism Spending Impact Management: Air and Water Quality Congestion Noise Reduction Tourism pays for its own impact management Management Issues: Cruise scale Destination growth CBJ managing tourism Loss of employment opportunities over time Deteriorates Plateaus, then declines Reactive management only Bandage approach As forced by public in short run, improved in long run as businesses relocate Not accomplished Short term growth, long term decline to below current levels Not in short or mid term future Reactive management only No action required, so no constraints to implementation. No action required, so no requirements for implementation. This scenario, the path that Juneau is on now, compromises the social and economic future of Juneau to the degree that opportunities are lost and there do not appear to be any significant alternatives on the horizon. It further divides and polarizes the community. It yields conditions that are not conducive to the operation of tourism businesses or the pursuit of tourism careers. It invites the cruise industry to relocate to sites that are more supportive and, in doing so, inadvertently sends non-cruise tourism (both regional travel and destination travel) looking elsewhere. November, 2001 Egret Communications/ARA Consulting Page 15

18 3.2 Manage for Destination Travel Success Scenario Description Under this scenario, Juneau sets out to succeed with Destination Travel - growing volume, developing appropriate businesses, generating employment, and managing both benefits and impacts to community and environment. Juneau neither encourages nor discourages cruise tourism growth, but actively manages social and environmental impacts related to cruise tourism Scenario Assumptions and Justifications Destination Travel (commonly called independent travel in Juneau) growth is widely sought by Juneau residents. This scenario sets out to deliver that growth, assuming that non-cruise tourism can be managed to grow at 15% for several years and that it would then slow somewhat. The scenario assumes that cruise tourism grows at historic rates. Under this scenario negative impacts from destination travel are managed proactively while those from cruise tourism are managed reactively. Destination travel is engineered to maximize social and environmental benefits and to produce jobs and business opportunities. The scenario assumes that successful destination travel product development will stimulate both convention and business travel growth. The scenario also assumes that destination travelers will patronize quality tourism retail businesses and will support the development of additional retail activities Synopsis of Predicted Performance Conflict between the community and cruise tourism hampers the success of destination travel growth, and threatens the stability of the cruise tourism component. The goals of developing destination travel are overridden by the battles (legal and social) over cruise tourism and flightseeing impacts. Cruise tourism, as in the status quo scenario, begins to relocate outside Juneau, pulling many cruisedependent businesses with it. Those impacts don t play well with destination travelers or those investing in destination travel businesses and threatens the basic move toward success at destination travel. Juneau becomes an unfriendly environment for tourism investment. This scenario provides a path for development that is somewhat predictable, at least for non-cruise tourism, gradually building an economic sector that leverages business opportunities, jobs, and visitor spending for Juneau. As destination travel increases its share of the Juneau economy, Juneau is much less susceptible to changes in cruise industry levels. November, 2001 Egret Communications/ARA Consulting Page 16

19 Manage for Destination Travel Success Test against Community Objectives Constraints and Legal Implications Benefits: Jobs Business Environment Tourism Spending Impact Management: Air and Water Quality Congestion Noise Reduction Tourism pays for its own impact management Management Issues: Cruise scale Destination growth CBJ managing tourism Increase in destination travel; short term increase in cruise travel, then uncertain Improving, depending on cruise-related conflicts Increased spending per visitor; increased economic contribution of destination travel; uncertain cruise spending over time Improved somewhat Improved somewhat Improved Zoning and construction issues Good for destination travel, public will pay percentage of cruise impacts Short term growth, long term uncertainty Steady and managed Proactive in regards to destination travel; more proactive than in past regarding cruise impacts; reactive regarding cruise growth Management of air and water quality actions (including shore power, similar actions regarding Juneau-based tourism and non-tourism businesses, and private sector) To relieve traffic congestion and noise, develop second crossing of Gastineau Channel To address trail congestion and natural resource degradation concerns, strengthen permitting system for selected trails and other natural areas To address helicopter and float plane flightseeing related noise issues, use quiet flight practices and relocate take off and landing locations and flight patterns November, 2001 Egret Communications/ARA Consulting Page 17

20 Manage for Destination Travel Success Policy and Program Requirements Summary Stimulate investment in private sector destination travel infrastructure Develop and implement an eco-cultural tourism brand image and destination marketing campaign Develop and implement an off-peak season tourism marketing campaign Develop specific destination management programs in collaboration with the travel trade and tourism partners. Conduct interviews and workshops with travel trade to develop: better understanding of nature and culture tourism markets trends, characteristics and expectations; better understanding of travel trade needs and expectations and most effective methods of marketing to them, and; experiences and packages that match international marketplace needs Construction of additional trails Introduce product quality expectations and best practices for destination travelers Introduce incentives that encourage activities that reflect and respect natural and cultural attributes Develop and implement certification standards, training programs and certification programs for nature and culture tourism guides Target neighboring communities in product development, packaging and marketing efforts Develop and implement programs to monitor air and water quality, congestion, and flightseeing noise The path toward success at destination travel is rewarding for Juneau in social and economic terms. Its success is hampered by the wild card of unmanaged cruise tourism, which may very well generate negative social concerns that conflict with the development of destination travel (interfering with the development of a positive host community, souring the investment potential, and stunting patronage growth). The future of cruise tourism in Juneau is left undecided by this scenario, leading to the potential of boom-bust economics and resulting social and environmental costs. November, 2001 Egret Communications/ARA Consulting Page 18

21 3.3 Manage for Cruise Travel Success Scenario Description Under this scenario, Juneau sets out to succeed with Cruise Travel - growing revenue, developing appropriate businesses, generating employment, and managing both benefits and impacts to community and environment. Juneau actively manages social and environmental impacts, and proactively builds infrastructure and programs that make tourism successful with both travelers and residents. Destination Travel is essentially neglected, and may continue to develop at historic rates Scenario Assumptions and Justification By actively managing cruise tourism to succeed on Juneau s terms, Juneau is able to grow cruise tourism volume, but is also able to handle that volume so that downtown congestion is below year 2000 levels. To accomplish this, the scenario assumes that Juneau builds and manages a second cruise tourism port (although other tools may be available). This scenario assumes that Juneau proactively addresses congestion, flightseeing noise, and air and water quality. It assumes that destination travel, left alone, will continue to grow at historic rates Synopsis of Predicted Performance With proactive reformatting of the way that cruise tourism works in Juneau, the industry is better able to serve patrons and residents feel fewer negative impacts. This leads to a more harmonious co-existence and results in growth of jobs, business opportunities, and visitor spending. Public revenues increase and enable more benefits to community. Juneau serves more visitors but doesn t feel as crowded as it did in Destination Travel may get some boost from the increased marketing associated with cruise tourism and the energy of the cruise destination may attract some destination travel investment. However, no significant growth is forecast. The weak point in this scenario is that Juneau s tourism economy stands on one leg cruise tourism. Hence, Juneau is vulnerable to boom-bust cycles and to world events that affect cruise patronage in any given year. And, Juneau forgoes the development of destination travel, which seems to be widely embraced. November, 2001 Egret Communications/ARA Consulting Page 19

22 Manage for Cruise Travel Success Test against Community Objectives Constraints and Legal Implications Benefits: Jobs Business Environment Tourism Spending Impact Management: Air and Water Quality Congestion Noise Reduction Tourism pays for its own impact management Management Issues: Cruise scale Destination growth CBJ managing tourism Increase Improves Increases totally and per head Managed proactively Managed proactively, reduced in downtown area Managed proactively, reduced substantially Yes for cruise tourism; No for other tourism segments Cruise volume grows but in a manner that impacts are reduced from 2000 levels May grow some Proactive management of cruise economy, but basically ignores destination travel To relieve traffic congestion and noise, develop second crossing of Gastineau Channel Develop second cruise ship docking facility to handle increased passengers Potentially have cruise ships anchor off Auke Bay and lighter passengers in To address trail congestion and natural resource degradation concerns, introduce permitting system for selected trails and other natural areas To address helicopter and float plane flightseeing related noise issues, use quiet flight practices and relocate take off and landing locations and flight patterns November, 2001 Egret Communications/ARA Consulting Page 20

23 Manage for Cruise Travel Success Policy and Program Requirements Summary Work with cruise industry to develop mutually beneficial consultative mechanisms aimed at finding ways to: increase volumes while mitigating noise and congestion problems; provide more opportunities for meaningful interaction with local residents; add more educational and experiential nature and culture shore experiences, and; maximize cruise related government revenues required to finance infrastructure necessary to serve industry Build more infrastructure Develop additional trails Conduct interviews and workshops with travel trade to develop: better understanding of cruise tourism markets and nature and culture tourism markets trends, characteristics and expectations; better understanding of travel trade needs and expectations and most effective methods of marketing to them, and; experiences and packages that match international marketplace needs Develop and implement cruise tourism marketing plan which promotes Juneau as a nature and culture tourism destination through on-board and on-shore marketing and passenger information components, and includes a strategy for attracting nature and culture special interest cruise operators Work with tourism operators to develop and market stay-over cruises packages, including nature and culture experience programs Establish an internet web site that both provides the tourism industry with cruise tourism product development, education and training and marketing related information and resources, including best practice examples, and is appropriate for cruise tourism marketing purposes Develop and implement programs to monitor air and water quality, congestion, and flightseeing noise This scenario, which actively manages for the economic, social, and environmental success of cruise tourism in Juneau succeeds in growing the economy while reducing negative impacts. It does however leave Juneau vulnerable to changing world tourism trends or international events that affect the cruise tourism industry. November, 2001 Egret Communications/ARA Consulting Page 21

24 3.4 Manage for Destination and Cruise Travel Success Scenario Description Under this scenario, Juneau sets out to succeed with both Cruise and Destination Travel - growing revenues, developing appropriate businesses, generating employment, and managing both benefits and impacts to community and environment. Juneau actively manages social and environmental impacts, and proactively builds infrastructure and programs that make tourism successful with both visitors and residents Scenario Assumptions and Justification In this scenario, Juneau sets out to build strong cruise and destination travel economies, and to proactively manage tourism impacts. In this scenario, we assume that Juneau develops a second port to manage congestion and other impacts, and to better serve visitors (another tool may also be possible). We assume, for testing, that both cruise tourism and destination travel grow at about 15% for some years and then that growth slows. We assume that tourism in Juneau is engineered to maximize social and environmental benefits and to produce jobs and business opportunities Synopsis of Predicted Performance This scenario works well. Cruise tourism in Juneau is reformatted to work better for travelers, community, and businesses. Growth is encouraged, benefits increase, and most negative impacts decreased. Remaining negative impacts are proactively managed or accepted. Destination Travel grows and, over time, becomes a strong second leg of the Juneau tourism economy strengthening regional and business travel performance in the process. Marketing that focuses on destination travel also tends to support cruise travel. Community becomes more supportive of tourism, as benefits are felt and the industry is seen as responsive to community needs. This scenario protects the existing economy during the transition, helping it transition through times of international tourism uncertainty. It contributes to quality of life and builds increasing quality into the tourism experience. November, 2001 Egret Communications/ARA Consulting Page 22

25 Manage for Destination and Cruise Travel Success Test against Community Objectives Constraints and Legal Implications Benefits: Jobs Business Environment Tourism Spending Impact Management: Air and Water Quality Congestion Noise Reduction Tourism pays for its own impact management Management Issues: Cruise scale Destination growth CBJ managing tourism Increase and more stable Improves substantially Total increases and per arrival increases Managed proactively Managed proactively; reduced in downtown; may see some more volume on outlying roadways Managed proactively; substantially reduced Yes Volume increases, but impacts lower than in 2000 and feels like fewer people in town Substantial, but with managed impacts Scenario gives CBJ solid management role and ability to influence both benefits and impacts To relieve traffic congestion and noise, develop second crossing of Gastineau Channel To relieve air pollution, have cruise use shore power while at dock Develop second cruise ship docking facility to handle increased passengers To address trail congestion and natural resource degradation concerns, introduce permitting system for selected trails and other natural areas Develop additional trails To address helicopter and float plane flightseeing related noise issues, use quiet flight practices and relocate take off and landing locations and flight patterns November, 2001 Egret Communications/ARA Consulting Page 23

26 Manage for Destination and Cruise Travel Success Policy and Program Requirements City and Borough of Juneau (in partnership with State and tourism industry In cooperation with tourism industry, develop welcome/interpretive center to introduce visitors to natural and cultural features and encourage return stay-over visits by cruise visitors Provide funds to support tourism visitor management, tourism awareness, and tourism product development and packaging and marketing efforts Work with tourism industry to develop and implement visitor management strategies, standards and guidelines, including: daily cruise passenger volume guidelines; measures for improving circulation and reducing noise and congestion in downtown area; voluntary (or mandatory) helicopter and float plane flightseeing operations volume guidelines and measures to reduce noise impacts (e.g., quiet flight practices, alternate take-off locations and flight patterns); developing sustainable management plans for trails and natural areas, including cooperative stewardship guidelines, visitor volume guidelines and permitting system for over-used trails and natural areas Introduce incentives that favor local tourism operators/investors (e.g., preferred status for natural area permits, tax incentives) Develop and implement programs to monitor air and water quality, congestion, and flightseeing noise Tourism Industry - General Develop database of funding and other resources available for tourism product development, education and training and marketing from federal, state, NGOs and private sector sources Implement tourism awareness programs to educate citizens regarding contribution of tourism to local socio-economic structure and to encourage improved tourist-local resident relations Provide tourism operators with education and training on business planning and management, tourism market development, product development, packaging and marketing, and hospitality and customer service Develop programs that allow cruise and other visitors to learn about natural, cultural and historical features and to interact with local residents Work closely with Alaska Tourism Industry Association in destination marketing of both Alaska and Juneau November, 2001 Egret Communications/ARA Consulting Page 24

27 Manage for Destination and Cruise Travel Success Summary Under this scenario, Juneau elects to succeed at tourism, developing strong cruise and destination tourism economies, AND proactively engineering tourism to work for local economic, social, and environmental objectives. This scenario yields a more resilient tourism economy, better economics, a better relationship between community and industry, and better handling of tourism impacts. While the number of visitors to the borough grows, the proactive management actually makes it seem like fewer visitors are in town (compared to year 2000). Spending per visitor increases, total visitor spending increases, local business and employment opportunities increase, and the concerning side affects of tourism (air and water quality, flightseeing noise, congestion) decrease. This scenario does require considerable community rapport-building efforts by the industry and substantial cooperative energy for success. November, 2001 Egret Communications/ARA Consulting Page 25