Contents. Tax Free Trends. Arrivals Forecast. Summary 03. Tax Free Sales Trends 05. Ramadan Dragon Boat Festival

Transcription

1 June Report 2018

2 Contents Tax Free Trends Summary 03 Tax Free Sales Trends 05 Ramadan Dragon Boat Festival Tax Free Sales by Destination and Source 08 Top 5 Visitor Nations per Destination Country 10 Currency Trends 12 Arrivals Forecast Europe Overview 14 France 15 United Kingdom 16 Italy 17 Spain 18 Germany 19 Austria 20 Finland 21 International Holiday Calender 22 Planet Intelligence 2

3 Shopping & Arrivals Growth Summary - June % Total Sales Top 5 Destination Markets Tax Free Sales Turnover Vouchers/ Transaction Avg. Transaction Values (ATV) Arrival Numbers France +8% +1% +7% +11% -7% Total Vouchers United Kingdom Italy Spain -11% +21% -10% -14% +19% -19% +3% +1% +10% +7% +10% +5% Germany -1% -8% +8% +14% +10% Total ATV Top 5 Source Markets China Tax Free Sales Turnover +5% Vouchers/ Transaction -9% Avg. Transaction Values (ATV) +14% Arrival Numbers +15% +17% +4% +12% +10% +9% Total Arrivals Taiwan Russia Hong Kong +5% -24% +14% -14% -23% -3% +21% -1% +17% +10% -14% +19% Planet Intelligence 3

4 Shopping & Arrivals Growth Summary - YTD -4% Total Sales Top 5 Destination Markets Tax Free Sales Turnover Vouchers/ Transaction Avg. Transaction Values (ATV) Arrival Numbers France -2% -7% +6% +8% -8% Total Vouchers United Kingdom Italy Spain -16% +8% -8% -13% +7% -15% -3% +1% +8% +2% +9% +5% Germany -9% -9% -0% +1% +5% Total ATV Top 5 Source Markets China Tax Free Sales Turnover +3% Vouchers/ Transaction -7% Avg. Transaction Values (ATV) +11% Arrival Numbers +5% +1% -1% +2% +4% +5% Total Arrivals Russia Hong Kong Taiwan -15% -9% -1% -13% -16% -6% -2% +8% +5% -5% +3% +4% Planet Intelligence 4

5 Tax Free Shopping Sales Trends June 2018 Overview Tax Free shopping sales returned to positive territory in June, with sales growth of 2% recorded. Whilst events such as the Dragon Boat Festival and Ramadan provided a boost to sales; the slowing rate of gains in the prior year (as shown in the chart below), also played a significant role in the welcome return to an increase in sales. As this trend of a reduction in the rate of growth continued through the second half of 2017, we remain cautiously optimistic on the propensity for gains in the second half of However, with the impact of current currency fluctuations, we expect the capacity for gains to be limited, and continue within the single-digit range. Y/Y Sales Growth 30% 25% 20% Sales to Indonesian tourists sees strongest gains, boosted by end of Ramadan Indonesia has one of the largest economies in South East Asia, and is a member of the G-20 major economies. Following a number of years of strong and consistent economic growth, predictions from PwC suggest that by 2030, Indonesia will rank as the 9th largest economy in the world. Rank China 2 China 3 Japan India 4 Germany Japan 5 UK Germany 6 France UK 7 India France 8 Italy Brazil 9 Brazil Indonesia 10 Canada Italy Sales to these tourists have also witnessed strong gains in recent years. In June, sales to these tourists increased by 67%; the highest rate of growth amongst all major nationalities in the month. 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC June s growth was mostly due to the festivities of Eid al-fitr following the end of Ramadan. Sales to these tourists increased by 138% in the week post Ramadan. It is also important to note that Indonesia boasts the highest number of adherents to Islam on the planet. In the week following Ramadan, sales to Indonesian tourists formed 29% of all sales to the major Gulf Co-Operation Council (GCC) and South East Asia nations, with the latter representing the most populous nations for followers of the Islamic faith.

6 Ramadan 2018: Sales boost from the GCC and South East Asian nations Sales between 14th June to 20th June 2018 For the celebrations of Eid al-fitr, total sales to GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) and South East Asian nations increased by 71% versus the same calendar period last year. However, when compared to the corresponding week following Ramadan in 2017, total sales declined by 13%. The impact of the economic downturn, oil and austerity measures have continued to affect these nations. Sales to the GCC nations saw the largest increase yearon-year, whilst both GCC and SE Asia nations declined compared to the equivalent period post Ramadan in However, sales to Indian and Indonesian shoppers represented 56% of total sales to these groups of tourists combined, demonstrating the importance of these nations during this period. vs Prior Year: 14th June to 20th June 2017 vs Prior Year Ramadan: 24th June to 30th June 2017 Y/Y: SE Asia 41% Y/Y: GCC 145% -4% -22% Sales Mix by Nationality 27% 29% 14% 11% 11% 6% 0% 2% Bangladesh India Indonesia Pakistan Kuwait Qatar Saudia Arabia UAE SE Asia Countries GCC Countries

7 Dragon Boat Festival 2018: Sales boon from Chinese tourists Sales between 16th June to 22nd June 2018 Sales to Chinese tourists during the Dragon Boat Festival period saw a 15% increase against the same period in the prior year, and a 22% increase when compared to the Dragon Boat Festival period last year, highlighting its importance to retailers. There were mixed fortunes across the major European cities, with strong growth recorded in Paris and the major cities in Germany and Italy, offset by declines in London, Barcelona and Madrid. vs Prior Year: 16th June to 22nd June 2017 vs Prior Year Dragon Boat Festival: 28th May to 3rd June 2017 Y/Y Sales 29.1% 40.1% 43.4% 24.5% 21.8% 34.6% 22.9% 39.7% 40.8% 23.6% 7.6% 1.7% -11.9% -11.4% -8.9% -18.4% -23.9% -24.0% London Paris Barcelona Madrid Berlin Frankfurt Munich Milan Rome

8 Sales Performance - June 2018 By Destination By Source Market FRA +7.8% CHN +4.6% GBR -11.2% +16.5% ITA +20.6% TWN +4.7% ESP -10.3% RUS -23.7% DEU -0.5% HKG +13.6% AUT +4.2% KOR -2.3% IRL -3.0% IND -9.2% CZE -14.5% THA +9.4% PRT -8.9% SGP +23.4% CHE +8.5% IDN +67.5% Planet Intelligence 8

9 Sales Performance - YTD By Destination By Source Market FRA -1.9% CHN +3.1% GBR -16.3% +0.6% ITA +7.6% RUS -15.4% ESP -7.8% HKG -9.0% DEU -9.0% TWN -0.6% AUT +12.0% KOR -9.5% CZE -7.9% THA -0.3% IRL -5.5% UAE -15.2% PRT -6.9% KWT -17.9% CHE +22.6% MYS +0.5% Planet Intelligence 9

10 Top 5 Visitor Nations per Destination Country June 2018 Top 5 Share ATV Y/Y Sales Top 5 Share ATV Y/Y Sales FRA CHINA 35% 1,592 +9% 11% 1, % HONG KONG 7% 3, % SOUTH KOREA 6% 728-7% TAIWAN 6% 2, % AUT CHINA 35% % TAIWAN 8% % SWITZERLAND 7% % RUSSIA 7% % 4% % GBR CHINA 28% % 10% 368-2% INDIA 9% % HONG KONG 5% % SINGAPORE 4% % IRL 38% % CHINA 36% % CANADA 4% 91 +4% AUSTRALIA 3% % MALAYSIA 2% % ITA CHINA 28% 1, % 16% 1, % TAIWAN 6% 1,213-4% RUSSIA 6% % SOUTH KOREA 4% % CZE CHINA 29% % RUSSIA 19% % TAIWAN 17% % 7% 436-0% SOUTH KOREA 6% % ESP CHINA 31% % 10% % ARGENTINA 5% % RUSSIA 5% % SOUTH KOREA 4% % PRT CHINA 47% 2, % BRAZIL 16% % ANGOLA 12% % 4% % HONG KONG 2% 4, % DEU CHINA 40% 645-7% RUSSIA 8% % TAIWAN 5% 461-9% THAILAND 5% % 4% % CHE CHINA 27% 1, % 8% 1, % THAILAND 8% 1, % TAIWAN 6% % RUSSIA 5% 1,188-36% Planet Intelligence 10

11 Top 5 Visitor Nations per Destination Country YTD Top 5 Share ATV Y/Y Sales Top 5 Share ATV Y/Y Sales FRA CHINA 33% 1,810 +7% 8% 1,342 +8% HONG KONG 8% 4,626-10% SOUTH KOREA 5% % TAIWAN 5% 1,985 +0% AUT CHINA 25% % RUSSIA 14% 430-8% SWITZERLAND 10% % TAIWAN 7% % THAILAND 6% % GBR CHINA 24% % 7% % KUWAIT 6% % UAE 5% % HONG KONG 5% % CZE RUSSIA 29% % CHINA 20% % TAIWAN 16% % SOUTH KOREA 6% % 4% % ITA CHINA 30% 1, % RUSSIA 11% 803-7% 10% 1, % TAIWAN 6% 1,239-3% SOUTH KOREA 5% % IRL CHINA 38% % 33% % CANADA 4% % AUSTRALIA 3% 148-9% MALAYSIA 3% % ESP CHINA 31% % 7% % RUSSIA 6% % ARGENTINA 5% % SOUTH KOREA 4% 393-7% PRT CHINA 35% 1,969 +6% BRAZIL 20% % ANGOLA 16% % HONG KONG 3% 5, % RUSSIA 3% % DEU CHINA 33% % RUSSIA 12% 538-9% THAILAND 5% 956-8% TAIWAN 5% 461-5% SWITZERLAND 4% 350-6% CHE CHINA 23% 1, % RUSSIA 8% 1,370-15% UAE 6% 2, % THAILAND 6% 1, % 5% 1, % Planet Intelligence 11

12 Currency vs Euro & GBP: Top Source Markets Currency movements: Last 52 Weeks CNY > EUR RUB > EUR CNY > GBP USD > EUR HKD > EUR USD > GBP Planet Intelligence 12

13 Arrivals Forecast In partnership with Know tomorrow s travellers Planet Intelligence 13

14 Europe Overview TOTAL JUL-SEP % GBR JUL-SEP % FIN JUL-SEP % Outlook & Opportunity JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % The outlook for arrival numbers for the 3rd quarter of 2018 suggests a predicted 2.7% increase in Non-EU arrivals, which would be incremental to the 10.7% increase in the same three-month period in DEU Of the major destination markets, all destinations are projected to witness single-digit gains, with the exception of Finland and Spain, which are predicted to decline by 0.8% and 2.3% respectively. Arrivals to Spain are predicted to decline due to the continued effects of terror attacks, the Catalan referendum, and an anti-tourism sentiment. JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % Source Market Insights Arrivals of Chinese tourists are predicted to increase by 5% during this period, tempered somewhat by the double-digit gains seen in the same period in AUT JUL-SEP % This outlook will also be affected by the recent weakness in the Yuan as a result of increased rhetoric and escalation in the trade wars with the US. JUL-SEP % The reduction of import duties on consumer goods into China, effective from 1st July will also affect these numbers. However, tourists from Hong Kong and Taiwan are expected to increase by 11% and 10%, respectively. Following a period of fluctuation in the value of the US Dollar, recent strengthening in the value of the currency has resulted in an optimistic outlook in arrival numbers, with growth of 11.2% predicted for the third quarter of the year. ESP JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % FRA JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % ITA JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % Planet Intelligence 14

15 3 Month Arrivals Outlook - France RUS JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % CHN JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % HNG JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % KOR JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % BRA JPN JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % KUW TWN JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % SAU QAT UAE IND THA JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % AUS JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % Planet Intelligence 15

16 3 Month Arrivals Outlook - UK RUS JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % CHN JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % HNG JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % KOR JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % BRA JPN JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % KUW TWN JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % SAU QAT UAE IND THA JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % AUS JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % Planet Intelligence 16

17 3 Month Arrivals Outlook - Italy RUS JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % CHN JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % HNG JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % KOR JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % BRA JPN JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % KUW TWN JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % SAU QAT UAE IND THA JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % AUS JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % Planet Intelligence 17

18 3 Month Arrivals Outlook - Spain RUS JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % CHN JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % HNG JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % KOR JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % BRA JPN JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % KUW TWN JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % SAU QAT UAE IND THA JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % AUS JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % Planet Intelligence 18

19 3 Month Arrivals Outlook - Germany RUS JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % CHN JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % HNG JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % KOR JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % BRA JPN JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % KUW TWN JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % SAU QAT UAE IND THA JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % AUS JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % Planet Intelligence 19

20 3 Month Arrivals Outlook - Austria RUS JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % CHN JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % HNG JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % KOR JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % BRA JPN JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % KUW TWN JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % SAU QAT UAE IND THA JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % AUS JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % Planet Intelligence 20

21 3 Month Arrivals Outlook - Finland RUS JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % CHN JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % HNG JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % KOR JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % BRA JPN JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % KUW TWN JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % SAU QAT UAE IND THA JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % AUS JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % JUL-SEP % Planet Intelligence 21

22 International Holiday Calendar 2018 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC CHN 1-2 New Year s Holiday Spring Festival - 5 Qing Ming Jie 1 Labour Day 18 Dragon Boat Festival 24 Mid-Autumn Festival 1 National Day Chinese New Year 2-7 Golden Week Holiday RUS 1 New Year s Day 7 Orthodox Xmas Day 23 Defence of the Fatherland Day 8 Women s Day 12 National Day 4-6 Unity Day Holiday IND 36 Republic Day 13 Maha Shivaratri 25 Rama Navami 30 Buddha Purnima 15 Independence Day 29 Mahavir Jayanti 22 Bakr Id / Eid ul-adha 30 Good Friday 3 Janmashtami 21 Muharram / Ashura 19 Dussehra 7 Diwali / Deepavali 25 Christmas Day 21 Milad un-nabi 23 Guru Nanak Jayanti BRA 1 New Year s Day Carnival 30 Good Friday 21 Tiradentes Day 1 Labour Day / May Day 31 Corpus Christi 7 Independence Day 12 Our Lady Aparecida Day / Childeren s Day 28 Public Service Holiday 2 All Soul s Day 15 Republic Proclamation Day 24 Christmas Eve 25 Christmas Day 31 New Years Eve MID EAST 1 New Year s Day 6 Army Day (Iraq) 11 Revolution Day (Iran) 25 Kuwaiti National Day 26 Liberation Day (Kuwait) 20 Oil Nationalisation Day (Iran) Perian New Year (Iran) 30 Birthday of Imam Ali (Iran) 1 Islamic Republic Day (Iran) 2 Nature Day (Iran) Pesach I (First day of Passover - Israel) 13 Prophet s Ascension (UAE/Iran) 24 Isra & Miraj (Oman) 27 Isra & Miraj (Kuwait) 1 Labour Day / May Day (Iraq / Bahrain) 2 Israel Independence Day) 31 Pentecost (Israel) 4 Anniversary of Khomeni s Death (Iran) Eid-al-Fitr (UAE) Eid-al-Fitr (Oman) Eid-al-Fitr (Kuwait) 23 Renaissance Day (Oman) 21 Arafat Day (UAE) 21 Eid-e-Ghorban (Iran) Eid-al-Adha 1 Waqfat Arafat Day (Kuwait) 2-4 Eid-al-Adha (Kuwait / Saudi Arabia) 12 Islamic New Year (UAE / Bahrain / Iraq) 19 Tassoua (Iran) Rosh Hashana (Israel New Year) 22 Islamic New Year (Kuwait) 24 Saudi National Day 30 Yom Kippur (Israel) 3 Iraqi Independence Day 5-11 Sukkot (Israel) 12 Simchat Torah (Israel) 29 Arbaeen (Iran) 21 Mouloud - Prophet s Birthday (UAE). 21 Prophet Muhammad s Birthday (Iran) 30 Commemoration Day (UAE) 1 Prophet s Birthday (Kuwait) 2 National Day (UAE) National Day (Bahrain) HKG 1 New Year s Day Spring Festival - 30 Good Friday Chinese New Year 31 Holy Saturday 2 Easter Monday 5 Tomb Sweeping 1 Labour Day 22 Buddha s Birthday 18 Dragon Boat Festival 1-2 Establishment Day 25 Day after 1 PRC National Day Holiday Mid-Autumn Festival 17 Chung Yeung Festival 25 Christmas Day 26 Boxing Day IDN 1 New Year s Day 16 Spring Festival - 17 Day of Silence & Chinese New Year Hindu New Year 30 Good Friday 13 Ascension of the Prophet Mohammad 1 Labour Day 10 Ascension Day of Jesus Christ 29 Waisak Day Idul Fitri 17 Independence Day 21 Muslim Day of Sacrifice 11 Muharram - Islamic New Year 20 Prophet Muhammad s Birthday 25 Christmas Day MYS 16 Spring Festival - Chinese New Year 29 Wesak Day 1 Labour Day Hari Raya 28 Yang di-pertuan 22 Hari Raya Haji Agong s Birthday 31 Nataional day 12 Muharram - Islamic New Year 16 Malaysia Day 7 Diwali / Deepavali 21 Prophet Muhammad s Birthday 25 Christmas Day THA 1 New Year s Day 31 Makha Bucha 6 Chakri Day 1 Labour Day Songkran 10 Royal Ploughing 29 Visakha Bucha Ceremony Day 27 Asalha Bucha 28 King Vajiralongkorn s Birthday 28 Buddhist Lent Day The Queen s Birthday Mother s Day 23 Chulalongkorn Day 5 Father s Day 10 Constitution Day 31 New Year s Eve JAP 1 New Year s Day 8 Coming of Age Day National Foundation Day 21 Spring Equinox Showa Day 3 Constitution Memorial Day 4 Greenery Day 5 Childeren s Day 16 Sea Day 11 Mountain Day 17 Respect the Aged Day 8 Sports Day 3 Culture Day 23 Labour Thanksgiving Day Emporor s Birthday 1 New Year s Day 15 Martin Luther King Jr Day 19 President s Day 4 Independence Day 3 Labour Day 8 Columbus Day Veteran s Day 25 Christmas Day 22 Thanksgiving Day Planet Intelligence 22

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