Investor Briefing. 4 October 2018 Goodman Property Trust
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1 Investor Briefing 4 October 2018 Goodman Property Trust
2 Contents Presented by: John Dakin Chief Executive Officer James Spence Director Investment Management Michael Gimblett General Manager - Development Auckland Focus 3 GMT Portfolio 12 Development Programme 24 Financial 29 Summary 32 Andy Eakin Chief Financial Officer Unless otherwise indicated, all numerical data provided in this presentation is stated as at 31 March All dollar values are NZD unless otherwise stated. All figures are rounded. 2
3 Auckland focus
4 Auckland context Australia Brisbane Population 2.4m % of Aus popn 10% Urban area 1 1,972km 2 GDP growth 2 2.9% Unemployment 7.4% Sydney Population 5.1m % of Aus popn 21% Urban area 1 2,037km 2 GDP growth 2 2.9% Unemployment 6.0% Auckland Population 1.7m % of NZ popn 35% Urban area 1 607km 2 GDP growth 2 2.7% Unemployment 4.3% Melbourne Population 4.9m % of Aus popn 20% New Zealand Urban area 1 2,543km 2 GDP growth 2 2.9% Unemployment 6.8% All statistics refer to greater city region unless stated. 1 Refers to urban area only, as defined by nation s statistical areas 2 National statistic, average annual change to June
5 + Auckland more land constrained than Australian markets + Tight rental range across the Auckland market indicates no differential being paid for location in contrast to Sydney and Melbourne + Opportunity to drive market rentals in key locations with superior logistics qualities Australian industrial market comparison Auckland Sydney Melbourne Brisbane Prime Industrial stock (million m 2 ) Industrial land supply (ha) 1,111 2,815 6,669 3,173 Prime warehouse rental ($/m 2 ) Prime capitalisation rate 5.0%-5.5% 4.5%-5.25% 5.75% 6% Prime vacancy 2% 1% 4% 4% Statistics for greater city regions above reflect Goodman s estimates and various agency reports. 5
6 Port of Auckland Key logistics infrastructure Land constrained city driven by geographic challenges (harbours, topography) Metroport Experiencing increased pressure on existing infrastructure given significant net migration (circa 110,000 people last 4 years) Major infrastructure projects underway Key State Highway 1 Other State Highway Rail Auckland Airport Wiri Inland Port 6
7 Auckland industrial rentals $/m Auckland industrial yields 12% % 8% Auckland industrial market F Prime Secondary 6% 4% 2% 0% F Prime Secondary + Economic growth fuelling occupier demand + Historically low vacancy and rising market rents a feature of most suburbs + Industrial land values now being driven by offshore demand and residential conversion factors Auckland industrial vacancy 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% South Auckland Industrial land values $/m % F Prime Secondary Source: CBRE 7
8 + 186,000sqm pa of new industrial space developed over the past ten years, utilising approximately 37ha of land pa + Currently around 490ha of industrial land supply in core Auckland locations + Total land supply expected to support 13 years of new development Industrial supply Auckland Industrial Land Supply New South Auckland Industrial Stock NLA million m Wiri 251ha East Tamaki 69ha Airport Corridor 141ha Mangere 17ha Mt Wellington 8ha Rosebank 2ha Penrose 5ha Source: CBRE & Goodman Total stock million sqm (LHS) New stock '000sqm (RHS) Average new stock pa '000sqm (RHS) Source: JLL & Goodman Industrial land identified area includes south of Auckland harbour bridge, as far west as Rosebank Rd and as far south as Wiri. 8
9 1 West Auckland Glen Innes Zoning Mount Roskill Penrose / Mt Wellington East Tamaki + Large quantity of industrial stock re-zoned to other uses within Auckland unitary plan process $160m Otahuhu $290m Key Auckland Airport Wiri Unitary plan zoning Business Heavy industry zone Business Light industry zone Future urban zone 9
10 Industrial re-zoning influence Existing NCI warehouse Example 13,000m2 GMT development at Savill link for NCI who relocated from Mt Wellington industrial building re-zoned to mixed use Goodman NCI development 10
11 + e-commerce is a significant and growing part of global trade and has an estimated value of $3.8 trillion twice the size of what it was five years ago + New Zealanders spent a total of $3.6 billion online in 2017 ($746 per capita) + Online shopping now delivers 8.1% of all retail spend in New Zealand e-commerce in NZ + The greater Auckland region accounted for 37% of online spend in NZ Post delivered 38.9 million parcels in the month of December 2017 (9% increase on December 2016) e-commerce sales by country % of total retail sales in 2017 GMT top ten customers split by subsidiary companies 1 % of portfolio income 25% 23.1% New Zealand Post DHL 20% 19.1% Fletcher Building 16.0% Coda 15% 10% 5% 12.6% 10.0% 9.0% 8.1% 7.9% 7.9% 6.6% 3.2% 2.2% Fliway Transport Toll Spicers CSR Building Products Officemax 0% Big Chill 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% Source: New Zealand Post 1 As at 31 March
12 GMT portfolio
13 Strategic overview Strategy + High quality portfolio situated in key industrial locations close to consumers positioned to capitalise on growth in e-commerce and technological change + Strategic holdings provide development pipeline and urban regeneration opportunities number of estates held significantly below replacement cost + Development programme improving asset quality and growth profile of GMT + Balance sheet capacity expected to support build out of remaining land holdings Targeting + Increased growth in rental cashflows and cash earnings + Creation of a lower capex portfolio + Resilient portfolio with the balance sheet capacity to be opportunistic should markets turn 13
14 GMT overview 6.1years WALT 1 $2.7bn Property portfolio % Weighted average capitalisation rate 1 1m sqm Net lettable area % Look-through loan to value ratio % 260+ Portfolio occupancy 1 Customers 1 $2.0bn Market capitalisation 3 1 Including contracted sales, as at 31 March Adjusted for all sales contracted as at 31 March As at 27 September
15 VXV Precinct (conditionally sold) Portfolio statistics 1 Value ($m) 2,746.7 Auckland locations 2 Land area (ha) NLA (m2) 1,111,244 $psm land 1,133 Central Park (sold) + GMT assets situated in key logistics locations, well suited to assist in the creation of fast and efficient supply chains 1 Including contracted sales, as at 31 March 2018 (excludes Roma Rd) 2 Under contract 15
16 Developed Asset recycling 5 year programme Bought Gateway Warehouses development (artists impression), Highbrook Business Park Sold DISPOSALS $1.2 billion ACQUISITIONS $267 million 1 DEVELOPMENTS $672 million 2 Roma Road Estate, Mt Roskill, Auckland VXV Precinct, Auckland CBD 1 Includes Roma Rd acquisition 2 Development starts (TPC including land) 16
17 Key metrics March 2018 March 2013 Auckland weighting 99% 92% Portfolio occupancy 98% 96% Weighted average cap rate 6.2% 8.1% Portfolio transformed Weighted average lease term (years) Development commitments ($m) Relative property return 1 2.9% -0.2% + Portfolio now predominately Auckland industrial + Improving quality reflected in the portfolio metrics + Like-for-like NPI growth of 3.9% in 2018 and 2.8% in % occupancy + Large number of pending expiries secured in 2018 YTD with only 10% of portfolio income due to expire over the FY19 and FY20 years Asset diversity Asset diversity 2013 Development Land 4.5% Office Park 0.7% MH/DJ to be 31 March post contracted sales Industrial 94.8% Development Land 12.0% Office Park 28.0% Industrial 60.0% 1 MSCI New Zealand Universe index 2 Post contracted sales, as at 31 March
18 Preferred location Portfolio matrix + Strategic decision to focus investment in key locations within the Auckland industrial market + 93% of core assets have been developed by Goodman + 84% of assets sold have been office + Value add estates offer future opportunity Higher quality Core assets Value-add Sold properties Future disposals 18
19 Highbrook Business Park Metrics 1 NLA 434,107m 2 Land area 107.0ha Site coverage 41% Value $1,192m Value (psm land area) $1,114/m 2 WALE Average age 6.0 years 6.4 years % complete 82% Cap rate 5.8% 1 As at 31 March
20 Savill Link M20 Business Park Other core estates Metrics 1 NLA 426,015m 2 Land area 96.7ha Site coverage 44% Value $800m Value (psm land area) WALE Average age $834/m years 12.4 years % complete 96% Cap rate 6.5% The Gate Industry Park Westney Industry Park 1 As at 31 March
21 Penrose Industrial Estate Connect Industrial Estate Value-add estates Metrics 1 NLA 92,426m 2 Tamaki Estate Concourse Industry Park Land area 23.1ha Site coverage 40% Value Value (psm land area) WALE Average age $148.6m $642.4/m years 37.9 years % complete 100% Cap rate 6.2% 1 As at 31 March
22 CBD Acquisition: Roma Road + Site located in centre of Auckland Urban area and surrounded by lowmedium intensity residential + Area earmarked for intensification + Access and direct frontage to SH20 Waterview tunnel Proposed light rail + Expected to benefit from light rail network running between Auckland CBD and the airport in the medium/long term SH20 Roma Road 22
23 Acquisition: Roma Road Metrics NLA 36,977m 2 Land area 13.1 ha Site coverage 27% Value $93m Value (land) $710/m 2 WALE Age 2.5 years c. 40 years 23
24 Development programme 24
25 + $672 million of development starts over the last five years, providing average yield on additional spend of 9.4% and development gains of $81 million 1 + $165 million of new developments announced in FY18, with a further $54 million YTD Capital deployment + 80% of remaining portfolio has been developed by Goodman, providing for high quality, well-designed long-term investments Development commencements 2 (total project cost including land) Assets developed by Goodman 2 (total value of stabilised assets by estate) ,200 1, % $ m FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 Q $ m 52% 100% 72% 100% 65% Highbrook Savill M20 Westney The Gate Other Other Highbrook Developed by Goodman Other 1 Revaluation gains recorded on developments completed during the period 2 As as 31 March 2018, including FY19 Q1 announcements 25
26 Gateway Warehouses Highbrook Business Park COMPLETION November 2018 Development programme NLA 22,195m 2 Parade Units Highbrook Business Park + 66,000 sqm of space currently under construction within GMT portfolio + Includes 27,000 sqm of space which is yet to have terms agreed (equivalent to circa 2.5% of GMT portfolio) COMPLETION November 2018 NLA 5,972m 2 Savill Drive Warehouse Savill Link COMPLETION November 2018 NLA 8,494m 2 26
27 + Costs escalating but offset by yield compression and rising rents + Quality of base build specification also rising + Developments typically recording gains of 15-20% when valued on completion Construction costs Warehouse construction cost $/m 2 $1,000 $850 $700 $550 $400 $
28 + Remaining land supply 22 ha 1 + Supports a further 116,000 sqm of industrial and commercial development + Yield on additional spend expected to range between 8-9% + Estimated additional spend of approximately $290 million Development pipeline + Highbrook represents 82% of remaining land supply + New land opportunities tightly held and difficult to secure Gateway Warehouses development (artists impression), Highbrook Business Park 1 As at 31 March 2018, including FY19 Q1 announcements 28
29 Financial 29
30 WPH disposal Committed developments Contracted sales Roma Road Development pipeline 1 + GMT to have strong liquidity post settlement of WPH disposal + Increased ability to further invest in Auckland industrial through development pipeline and acquisitions GMT capacity + Build out of full development pipeline including projects underway (circa $450 million 1 ) would result in gearing of less than 35% Pro-forma gearing bridge 2 35% 30% 31% <35% 25% 20% 15% 25.0% $160m 19.9% $93m 22.9% $290m 14.1% 10% 5% 0% Balance Sheet Reported LVR Pro Forma LVR Committed LVR March 2018 Post acquisitions Approximate built out LVR 1 At current construction costs 2 As at 31 March 2018, including Roma Rd acquisition 30
31 + NTA growing strongly with CAGR of 8.9% over last five years + Improving quality and focus on industrial reflected in returns with five year total return of 13.7% Total returns NTA + distribution NTA per unit cents Total returns 2 20% 15% 11.6% 14.4% 17.2% 13.8% 11.6% 5 year total return: 13.7% % year income return: 5.9% % 90 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 1 FY18 Post WPH sale 0% FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 Income return Capital return 1 Post contracted sales, as at 31 March Total return is a combination of NTA growth + distribution paid 31
32 Summary 32
33 Focus Own Develop + Modern high quality assets with strong customer covenants in the best locations + Industrial property is the preferred sector, unique characteristics make it a superior long-term investment + Auckland is the favoured location, demographic and consumer trends support this decision + Development programme has created portfolio of unrivalled quality + Essential business activity to service customers, while continually improving the portfolio + New land opportunities difficult to secure, value add opportunities increasingly important Manage + Assets and customer relationships to maximise rental cashflows and long-term value + Balance sheet capacity funding development programme + Treasury initiatives to manage interest costs improving diversity and tenor + Transition to cash earnings based distribution policy, headwinds while completing asset disposals 33
34 Thank you 34
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