Transition Challenges in Chinese Railway Restructuring

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1 Transition Challenges in Chinese Railway Restructuring Louis S. Thompson Railways Adviser Beijing, January 29, 2002

2 Transition Challenges Lessons from elsewhere System design choices Evaluating the options Minimizing risk Information and tools for restructuring

3 Restructuring Lessons from Elsewhere Action highest risk is nothing Iteration, not revelation Avoid unclear or impossible objectives Understand tradeoffs Mixed solutions often best Do not neglect future government role ownership, transport strategic planning, railway investment, economic regulation (versus competition), safety

4 System Design Choices Dominant integral (U.S. freight vs. Amtrak) vs. total up/down (operating companies have franchises?) Centralized versus regionalized infrastructure organization Design role and degree of competition Decide on development of role of private sector -- Guangshen, specialized operating company (containers), wagon leasing

5 Percent of Rail Passenger Traffic to CAN USA FREIGHT DOMINANT ES RU SLVE SLK Total Rail Traffic P-Km/(P-km+T-Km) CHINA FIN CZ PL S A TUR Balanced RO B HU D F IND E I P UK KOR DK IRL PASSENGER DOMINANT NL EL JPN

6 Evaluating the Options If the Boundaries Change Reducing cost of interchanges Matching the market structure Introducing competition how and where Enterprise balance and profitability

7 Today:14 Administrations 19.7 million wagons interchanged million passengers interchanged Haerbin Wulumuqi Huhehaote Shenyang Beijing Lanzhou Jinan Chengdu Zhengzhou Shanghai Nanchang Kunming Liuzhou Guangzhou

8 19.7 Two Freight Railways 4.5 million wagons interchanged Haerbin Wulumuqi Huhehaote Shenyang Beijing CHINA NORTH Lanzhou Jinan Chengdu Zhengzhou Shanghai CHINA SOUTH Nanchang Kunming Liuzhou Guangzhou

9 19.7 Three Freight Railways 7.0 million wagons interchanged Haerbin Wulumuqi Huhehaote Shenyang CHINA NORTH Beijing Lanzhou Jinan CHINA CENTRAL Chengdu Zhengzhou Shanghai CHINA SOUTH Nanchang Kunming Liuzhou Guangzhou

10 19.7 Four Freight Railways: 8.7 million wagons interchanged Haerbin Wulumuqi Huhehaote Shenyang North West Lanzhou Chengdu Zhengzhou Beijing Jinan Shanghai Central South Nanchang Kunming Liuzhou Guangzhou

11 19.7 Five Freight Railways: 8.8 million wagons interchanged Haerbin Wulumuqi West Huhehaote Shenyang North Lanzhou Jinan Beijing Central Southwest Chengdu Zhengzhou Shanghai South Nanchang Kunming Liuzhou Guangzhou

12 276.4 Five Passenger Railways million passengers interchanged Haerbin Wulumuqi Huhehaote Shenyang Beijing Lanzhou Jinan Chengdu Zhengzhou Shanghai Nanchang Kunming Liuzhou Guangzhou

13 Percent of Originating Passengers % Intrazonal % Intra Admin Wulumuqi Nanchang Jinan Zhengzhou Lanzhou Huhehaote Beijing Liuzhou Average Guangzhou Chengdu Kunming Shanghai Shenyang Haerbin

14 China s Major Cities On MOR s Network Wulumuqi QiQihar Changchun Haerbin Jilin Lanzhou Huhehaote Baotao Shijiazhuang Taiyuan Beijing Tangshan Dalian Tianjin Jinan Qingdao Fushan Shenyang Anshan > 8 million 5 to 8 million 3 to 5 million 2 to 3 million 1 to 2 million Kunming Chengdu Xian Chongqing Guiyang Liuzhou Zhengzhou Wuhan Changsha Guangzhou Nanjing Nanchang Shantou Shenzen Hong Kong Shanghai

15 Point to Point Rail Passenger Flows in China (1997 data excludes intra-zonal flows)

16 1997 Passenger Flow Density (excludes intrazonal traffic)

17 Percent of Originating Tons Shenyang Beijing Shanghai Chengdu Lanzhou Average Kunming Jinan Haerbin Zhengzhou % Intrazonal % Intra Admin Guangzhou Liuzhou Nanchang Huehaote Wulumchi

18 Point to Point Rail Freight Flows in China (1997 data excludes intra-zonal flows)

19 1997 Freight Flow Density (Tons) (excludes intrazonal traffic)

20 Net Tonnage Originated by Administration Jinan Shenyang Shanghai Beijing Kunming Lanzhou Guangzhou Nanchang Huehaote Liuzhou Wulumchi Zhengzhou Haerbin Chengdu

21 Freight System Comparisons Tons Originated Net Tonnage Balance Annual Wagon Interchanges Two Systems 4.5 ($450) Expected Profitability Administrations North 1, ? Haerbin, Shenyang, Beijing, Jinan, Huehaote, Zhengshou South (59.3)? Three Systems 7 ($700) North ? Haerbin, Shenyang Shanghai, Nanchang, Guangzhou, Liuzhou, Lanzhou, Wulumuchi, Chengdu, Kunming Central ? Beijing,Jinan, Huehaote, Lanzhou, Zhengzhou, Wulumuchi South (78.2)? Chengdu, Shanghai, Nanchang, Kunming, Liuzhou, Guangzhou Four Systems 8.7 ($870) North ? Haerbin, Shenyang Central ? Beijing,Jinan, Huehaote, Zhengzhou South (71.0)? Shanghai, Nanchang, Guangzhou West ? Liuzhou, Kunming, Chengdu, Lanzhou, Wulumuchi Five Systems 8.8 ($880) North ? Haerbin, Shenyang Central ? Beijing,Jinan, Huehaote, Zhengzhou South (71.0)? Shanghai, Nanchang, Guangzhou Southwest (7.3)? Chengdu, Kunming, Liuzhou West ? Lanzhou, Wulumchi 14 Administrations 19.7 ($1,970) All

22 Minimizing Risk Risk definition and management (dispatching and revenue allocation in all cases, access charges for up/down) Sequencing of change separate and restructure passenger enterprises first, restructure freight enterprises and infrastructure later

23 Information and Tools for Restructuring TMIS as information source not just operational Network models linked to TMIS data Traffic costing models linked to TMIS Capacity simulators and financial planning models for investment and financial evaluation Tools integration needed

24 A Good Way to Proceed?????????? Start with U.S. Model -- Up/Down as second stage????????---???????????? First separate national, regional and local passenger companies -- adjust over time??????????????????--?????? Start with Administration-based, integral freight companies, but with selected trackage rights competition between major markets??????????,??????????,?????????????????????? Broaden trackage rights over time with experience and information??????????,???????????? If up/down implemented for freight, use freight franchises and broaden them over time Enter Chinese translation here Leave private operations for later stage, but consider private wagon leasing?????????????,???????? Use policy components of National Railways (TMIS traffic information, system flow models and traffic costing models) to guide the implementation.?????????????(?????tmis?????,????????????)?????

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