Property Outlook. Australian Property Market Report - July 2018

Transcription

1 Property Outlook Australian Property Market Report - July 2018 The realestate.com.au Property Outlook report brings you the latest data and insights relating to demand and median price for residential dwellings across Australia. Slowing conditions are only part of the story Nerida Conisbee Chief Economist at realestate.com.au Nerida is one of Australia s leading property experts. She provides regular market commentary to a wide range of Australian media outlets across digital, print, television and radio. She also contributes content for REA Group s websites including realestate.com.au and realcommercial.com.au.

2 Table of contents National 3 NSW 6 VIC 9 QLD 11 SA 13 TAS 15 NT 17 ACT 19 WA 21 Methodology 23 2

3 for all property National 2% 8% -2% Year-on-year demand by capital city WA 4 % NT 7 % QLD 9% SA 7 % NSW -25% ACT 12% TAS 36% VIC -1% The housing market slowdown in Melbourne and Sydney is dominating headlines, but the reality is the market is highly divergent. On one hand, Sydney prices have declined by 4% year-on-year, while on the other extreme, Hobart continues to surge, with prices rising by 11%. Pricing data is consistent with what we are observing based on over 80 million searches to the buy section of realestate.com.au last quarter (REA Internal data, Adobe Analytics, search results successful - Apr-Jun). Across all measures of demand including buyer demand, rental demand and property seekers from offshore Sydney is experiencing the biggest drawbacks. Melbourne is still holding. Pricing is up year-on-year and although activity among offshore buyers is cooling off, foreign investors are still actively looking for properties in the city. Softening market conditions are now starting to take hold and, surprisingly, given the widespread concern about apartment over-supply, in relative terms, it is housing demand that has weakened more. 3

4 Top 10 most in demand suburbs in Australia All dwellings Warrandyte, VIC Park Orchards, VIC Red Hill, VIC Crafers, SA Battery Point, TAS Richmond, TAS The Basin, VIC North Hobart, TAS Hobart, TAS Albert Park, VIC Sydney Melbourne Brisbane Adelaide Hobart Darwin Canberra Perth $815,000 $653,000 $485,000 $440,000 $426,850 $460,000 $585,000 $470,000 YoY growth -4% +0.5% +0% +0% +11% -2% +7% -3% While Melbourne and Sydney slow, demand is creeping up in Perth. Although prices are still down year-on-year, the increase in demand is now the third highest in Australia, after Hobart and Canberra. Brisbane is experiencing similar increases, also suggesting that the tough times are over in the city, which is consistent with recent jobs growth numbers. Generally, across Australia, the premium market is holding up better than more affordable locations, however it is too simplistic to say that it s the only market doing well. The strongest suburb over the past 12 months was Tamarama in Sydney s east, which saw a median price increase of more than $1 million. Tasmania s Launceston has seen the strongest price growth of any Local Government Area (LGA) over the past 12 months. In the list of most in-demand suburbs in Australia, there is a wide variety of price points that people are looking at. 4

5 Looking ahead, the housing market in Australia is under a lot of pressure, which will cap price growth everywhere. The reasons for this are varied. Fewer offshore investors: Last year, new taxes were implemented in many capital cities and Foreign Investment Review Board applications dropped dramatically. Foreign buyers are still interested in Australian property (we continue to see growing numbers of Asian property seekers looking in all capital cities, except Sydney and Adelaide), however they are not transacting. While the new taxes are partly to blame, a in sentiment has also occurred. There is also less development taking place (foreign buyers are restricted to buying new properties), as well as fewer Chinese developers. Property is now on the restricted list in China and more often than not, Chinese developers tend to sell back to their home market. Fewer local investors: Investor lending has dropped by 15% over the past 12 months and sentiment of local investors has d. A lot of this has to do with problems related to getting finance (far more restrictive and more expensive), but many of the incentives that investors got on off-the-plan developments, for example, are no longer available. The beginning of price declines is only worsening the situation. Financial Services Royal Commission: This is currently underway and although it won t be completed until late this year, banks are already starting to restrict lending on the back of what they expect to happen. The biggest impact right now is greater scrutiny of potential borrowers spending behaviour. Previously, banks mostly accepted what people said they spent at face value, however they now require more proof. Interest-only loans have also been restricted and many investors had relied on these. It is likely even greater restrictions will be put in place over the next 12 months. Mortgage rates: Australian rates aren t budging but US rates are increasing. Australian banks raise about 20% of funds that they lend to Australians from wholesale markets, so this is impacting mortgage rates already. Add in an interest rate rise and we will see less money being borrowed, as well as lower levels of interest in buying a house. Change of government: A federal election will happen in the next 12 months and s to negative gearing have been flagged by the ALP. This would have a big impact on the market, with an expected decrease in prices of about 10% in Sydney and Melbourne, according to Riskwise and Wargent Consulting. If markets are already weak and dropping, this could have a dramatic impact on investment levels and, subsequently, prices. The likely outcome over the next six months is continued moderation of pricing in Melbourne and Sydney, while our other markets will hold up a lot better. Predictions that median prices will decline by about 10% seems a bit light in Sydney, given that prices have already dropped by more than 7%. Melbourne is likely to see declines this year, however, at this stage, it is unlikely to be as extreme as in Sydney, particularly given that on a year-on-year basis, we are still seeing a very slight increase. On the positive side, the Australian economy is very slowly heading back to growth mode and as the development pipeline has slowed dramatically, particularly for apartments, this means less property will be available to buy. These will provide buffers to negative s in the market, something that was not occurring the last time we saw big declines post the Global Financial Crisis. 5

6 Price declines will widen the property divide NSW Sydney Sydney has been hit hardest by declining demand and is the city most impacted by the strong pull back in local and offshore investors. It isn t surprising given that most investors tend to concentrate on prices below $850,000 and the availability of properties in this price point is more limited. Cost of living pressures for owner-occupiers are also a factor, particularly with limited wages growth and pressure on mortgage rates. All dwellings $815,000-4% -25% -0.6% Prices have now dropped in Sydney by more than 7% in the past 12 months and demand has pulled back by 22%. Given these weak levels of demand, we are likely to see prices continue to fall for the remainder of the year. While demand in Sydney is weak overall, some areas are holding up better than others. Sydney s eastern suburbs have seen the lowest decline in demand and continue to have some suburbs that are selling particularly quickly (North Bondi) or seeing very high price increases (Tamarama). Freshwater, Paddington and Cammeray are seeing the highest demand for houses, while apartment demand remains high in Fairlight, Cremorne Point and McMahons Point. -25% $925,000-21% $700,000-10% -4% -9% -4% At the other end of the scale, the LGA of Baulkham Hills and Hawkesbury has seen the biggest drop in demand and high supply suburbs like Sydney Olympic Park are seeing very low views per listing. In regional NSW, demand conditions are mostly mixed, with Orange and the Richmond Valley seeing big jumps in the number of people looking to buy. Wollongong and Shellharbour, where market conditions are more closely linked to Sydney, have now seen declines in demand of about 40%. 6

7 Top 10 most in demand suburbs in Sydney Freshwater Paddington Cammeray North Sydney Narraweena North Manly Newton Allambie Heights North Balgowlah North Curl Curl Fairlight Cremorne Point McMahons Point Centennial Park Artarmon Wollstonecraft Queenscliff Naremburn Paddington Greenwich Sydney metro regions Regions Median Price June 2018 median price % % % Baulkham Hills & Hawkesbury $1,208,500-7% -0.5% -30.7% Blacktown $700,000-3% -0.1% -21% City & Inner South $950,000-1% 0.6% -19% Eastern Suburbs $1,330,000-19% -12% -12% Inner South West $855,000-8% 0% -22% Inner West $1,050,000-5% -4% -.10% North Sydney & Hornsby $1,185,000-13% -9% -22% Northern Beaches $1,370,000-7% -2% -20.5% Outer South West $665, % 3% -15% Outer West & Blue Mountains $650,000-0% -0.8% -20% Parramatta $725,000-0% 0.0% -24% Ryde $1,220,000 12% 22% -23% South West $743,500-4% -0.5% -30.0% Sutherland $970,000-17% -8% -22% 7

8 NSW regions Regions Median Price June 2018 median price % % % Albury $305,000 8% 8% 20.6% Armidale Dumaresq $335,000-5% -3% 23% Ballina $640,000 13% 0.6% 29% Bathurst Regional $425,000 3% 7% -25% Byron Bay $850,000 2% -1% -8% Clarence Valley $380,000 1% 0.0% 21% Coffs Harbour $479,500 9% -1% -0.7% Dubbo $360,000 9% 0.3% 3% Eurobodalla $477,000 15% 2% 22% Great Lakes $479,000 6% 1% 19% Lismore $380,000-8% -9% 20.6% Newcastle $615,000 5% 0.8% -25% Orange $385,000 8% -0% 49% Port Macquarie-Hastings $489,000-1% -2% 8% Queanbeyan $456, % -8% 22% Richmond Valley $325,000 1% 3% 40% Shellharbour $627,500-2% 2% -45% Shoalhaven $555,000 7% -6% -21% Tamworth Regional $345,000 3% -4% 17% Tweed $585,000 15% 4% 27% Wagga Wagga $335,000-5% -7% 15% Wingecarribee $749,750-3% -2% -25% Wollongong $702,000 6% 0.3% -37% 8

9 Expect the unexpected: apartments outdoing houses VIC Melbourne Weaker demand conditions in Melbourne have now crept in and although prices are still up year-on-year, demand has pulled back slightly over the past 12 months. Surprisingly, it is housing demand that has dropped the most, perhaps driven by how expensive prices have become., which were considered by many to be the highest risk area, are continuing to see high demand levels. Premium areas in Melbourne appear to be holding up better than most, with inner Melbourne demand up year-on-year, while other parts of Melbourne have dropped. All dwellings $653, % -1% 0.5% This, however, is yet to be reflected in pricing and we are likely to see this over the remainder of the year. On a suburb basis, it is simplistic to say that only the best inner Melbourne suburbs will do well. Places like Warrandyte and Eltham continue to make the most-wanted list for houses, alongside Hawthorn, Toorak and St Kilda. The strength of Geelong is now apparent with Belmont in high demand when we look at the state as a whole, not just for houses but also for apartments. While demand has dropped slightly in Melbourne, regional Victoria is now tearing ahead with places like Geelong, Bendigo and Ballarat doing well - driven by first home buyers and young families looking for great lifestyle factors, period homes and affordability. The suburbs that people are looking at most in these areas, such as Soldiers Hill in Ballarat and Belmont in -18% $720,000 5% $536,000-7% 0.0% 0.6% 1% Geelong, back a Melbourne-led demand surge. Prices in Geelong and Surf Coast are now up more than 11% in the past 12 months, a marked difference to Melbourne pricing. 9

10 Top 10 most in demand suburbs in Melbourne Hawthorn Warrandyte Park Orchards Albert Park Red Hill Fitzroy North Eltham Collingwood St Kilda Toorak Montmorency Parkdale Briar Hill Coburg North St Kilda West Mitcham Eltham Sydenham Black Rock Tullamarine Regions Melbourne metro regions Median Price June 2018 median price % % % Inner $618,100-1% -0% 8% Inner East $1,030,000-12% -8% -7% Inner South $850,000-17% -6% -9% North East $670,000 2% 4% -3% North West $600,500 0% 8% -19% Outer East $750,000 4% 4% -20.3% South East $630,000 8% 4% -3% West $587,000 13% 7% -1% VIC regions Regions Median Price June 2018 median price % % % Ballarat $341,550 1% 0.5% 55% Greater Bendigo $340,000 6% 0% 41% Greater Geelong $505,000 10% -0% 59% Greater Shepparton $265,000 0% -4% 45% Mildura $260,000 0% 2% 32% Surf Coast $804,000 17% 0% 18% Warrnambool $317,000 2% -7% 56% Wodonga $345,000 8% 0% 24% 10

11 Market affordability drives higher demand in Brisbane QLD Brisbane With so much talk of price falls, Brisbane apartments should be seeing poorer demand conditions right now. Perhaps all the bad news is driving buyers to have a look around in search of a bargain demand is now up 5% over the past 12 months. Offshore property seekers are also very active, and we are now seeing Brisbane with the biggest increases from this buyer group far higher than any other capital city. Overall, prices in Brisbane are up 1% with houses seeing a slight increase and apartments seeing a decline. From a demand perspective, the timing in the cycle for this city appears to be at odds with 9% All dwellings $485,000 0% 0.0% Melbourne and Sydney. Prices never increased to the same level and it remains far more affordable. With so much spending on infrastructure, the city is now well prepared for population growth, which appears to be occurring as jobs growth continues to recover. The suburbs doing the best are premium areas, with East Brisbane and Indooroopilly seeing the highest demand for houses. For apartments, Gold Coast is dominating, with Tugun and Currumbin the highest demand suburbs for the state. 7% $525,000 5% $382,500 7% 0% -1% -7% In Brisbane, high levels of development mean that middle and outer ring suburbs, where there is less supply, are doing well for townhouses and apartments. Regional Queensland is seeing a pick-up in demand everywhere except the Gold Coast, which appears to be experiencing a post Commonwealth Games hangover. However, with very high demand in some Gold Coast suburbs, this is likely to be short-lived, particularly given how strong this region is with Sydney-based property seekers. Gladstone has seen the biggest jump in demand, driven by government investment in this part of Queensland leading to an increase in jobs. 11

12 Top 10 most in demand suburbs in Brisbane East Brisbane Indooroopilly Paddington Holland Park Wilston Chandler Windsor Coorparoo Newmarket Toowong Graceville Mansfield Tarragindi Camp Hill Red Hill Ashgrove Holland Park Tingalpa New Farm Paddington Brisbane metro regions Regions Median Price June 2018 median price % % % East $556,000 7% 3% 17% North $540,000 9% 3% 0% South $635,000 6% 4% -1% West $633, % 0.6% 0.1% Inner City $628,000-1% 7% 17% QLD regions Regions Median Price June 2018 median price % % % Bundaberg $265,000-0% -7% 30.2% Cairns $340,000-2% -8% 5% Douglas $335,000-2% 29% 13% Fraser Coast $305,000-6% -2% 38% Gladstone $230,000-18% -15% 31% Gold Coast $536,000 1% 1% -1% Gympie $295, % -8% 32% Mackay $321, % -4% 31% Noosa $608,000-5% -4% 22% Rockhampton $240,000-17% -4% 6% Sunshine Coast $545,000 8% 0.0% 5% Toowoomba $355,000-0% -7% 8% Townsville $310,000-6% -6% 9% 12

13 Will slow and steady win the race? SA Adelaide remain in strong demand in Adelaide, however there is a weakness in apartments in the city driven by high levels of supply over the past couple of years. is now up 7% overall in Adelaide and prices are up 3%. While Melbourne and Sydney are looking pretty weak right now, Adelaide is holding its own. All dwellings $440,000 0% 7% 3% The suburb most in demand continues to be Unley, a perennial favourite in the Adelaide market. The popularity of the Adelaide Hills is also creeping up with suburbs like Crafers now sitting in the top 10 most in demand in Australia. Inner Adelaide and Adelaide Hills continue to dominate most popular lists, but it is Glenelg South that has seen the strongest increase in median price over the past 12 months. Apartment demand has slowed and is pulling down the median for Adelaide. While there is weakness, it is not consistent across the city, and Mile End, Kensington Gardens and Grange are currently seeing the highest demand for this property type. 6% $470,000-2% $350,000 4% 2% -0.3% -1% 13

14 Top 10 most in demand suburbs in Adelaide Unley Goodwood Stirling Crafers Kingswood Upper Sturt Unley Park Glenside Hawthorn Parkside Mile End Kensington Gardens Grange Unley Burnside Fullarton Glenelg South North Adelaide Warradale Clarence Park Adelaide metro regions Regions Median Price June 2018 median price % % % Central & Hills $580,000 5% 6% 3% North $360,000 3% 9% 3% South $445,000 7% 1% 6% West $492,500 8% 7% -0.5% 14

15 Bass Straight no barrier for property prices TAS Hobart Hobart s place as the most affordable capital city in Australia is now at risk with the median about to overtake Adelaide. Jobs growth and very little development are the two factors increasing prices. While property investors are likely to be a key factor in the price increases, strong growth in rental demand suggests that the market is being supported by people needing a place to live. Tasmania is booming and Hobart continues to be red hot. All dwellings $426,850 11% 36% 6% Inner Hobart is the place most buyers want to be, with West Hobart and North Hobart the most in demand for houses. Hobart and Sandy Bay top the list for apartments. Strong conditions have also now spread to Launceston and Devonport and these cities have seen increases in demand of more than 45%. While strong pricing is good news for some, it is creating challenges in Hobart. Affordability is dropping and it is starting to become problematic for first home buyers. 38% $470,000 56% $355,000 10% 4% 24% 1% A rise in traditional rental housing moving to short term rentals, and increases in jobs, means that there is also less rental accommodation for the growing population. Hobart needs more housing to accommodate its growth - a challenge for a city that is accustomed to very little traffic, low levels of congestion and limited apartment development. 15

16 Top 10 most in demand suburbs in Hobart North Hobart West Hobart Richmond Bellerive South Hobart Sandy Bay Moonah Kingston Beach Taroona Howrah Hobart Sandy Bay Bellerive New Town West Moonah Kingston West Hobart Glenorchy Claremont Brighton TAS regions Regions Median Price June 2018 median price % % % Devonport $275,000 8% 8% 41% Launceston $313,500 14% 7% 47% 16

17 Darwin property emerging from market slumber NT Darwin Price declines in Darwin are almost on par with Sydney however unlike our biggest city, Darwin is slowly pulling itself out of a market slump. is now steadily increasing and is up almost 5%, while apartments are also seeing better demand conditions. The suburbs most in demand have d over the past two years. The most popular suburbs tended to be around Charles Darwin University, but now inner Darwin is really picking up. Fannie Bay and Bayview now feature in the most wanted list, joining previous favourite Jingili. All dwellings $460,000-2% 7% -7% 9% 2% $505,000 $377,000-0% 0.0% -13% 9% 17

18 Top 10 most in demand suburbs in Darwin Millner Jingili Fannie Bay Nightcliff Alawa Wulagi Stuart Park Parap Leanyer Ludmilla Fannie Bay The Gardens Bayview Marrara Stuart Park Rapid Creek Leanyer Ludmilla Bakewell Gray 18

19 Is polly watching a thing? ACT Canberra Although not quite as hot as Hobart, Canberra is still doing very well. is up 12% over the past 12 months and prices are up 7%. Unusually, the increases in demand for apartments and houses are roughly similar. Also unusual is that conditions in Canberra are not in line with Sydney and Melbourne. All dwellings $585,000 7% 12% 4% The most in demand suburbs in Canberra show a mix of inner and outer locations. For houses, Ainslie is topping the list of most in demand, while for apartments, it is Palmerston. Just outside of the ACT boundary, Queanbeyan is also doing well with demand in the area up 22%, a stronger increase than Canberra itself. At this stage, the increases in demand are not flowing through to pricing, which has only moderately increased over the past 12 months. 15% $683,000 12% $415,000 1% 1% -7% -5% 19

20 Top 10 most in demand suburbs in Canberra Ainslie Kaleen Palmerston Wanniassa Yarralumla Weetangera Curtin Macgregor Higgins O'Connor Palmerston Watson Ngunnawal Casey Mawson Kambah O'Connor Holt Hawker NA 20

21 Perth is back in the game WA Perth While there are challenges on the east coast, the west is slowly but surely turning a corner. Prices are still down overall but demand continues to climb. Perth has seen the third highest increase in demand over the past 12 months, after Hobart and Canberra. In some parts of Perth, such as the north west of the city, prices are now consistently up year-on-year. All dwellings $470,000-3% 4% -1% On an individual suburb level, it is the west that is doing the best. Shenton Park continues to be popular but has now been knocked out of top spot by Floreat. For apartments, Nedlands is the most in demand and although demand is creeping up for apartments, prices are flat over the past 12 months. The toughest market is the south west. For regional Western Australia, Broome is finally starting to see better conditions with demand up amid continued decline in prices year-on-year. It is likely that a recovery in this region will closely mimic what is happening in Perth. Bunbury is still tough with both demand levels and prices down. 5% $485, % $415,000-0% -0% 0.0% 9% 21

22 Top 10 most in demand suburbs in Perth Floreat Shenton Park Peppermint Grove Nedlands East Fremantle Mount Hawthorn Dalkeith Subiaco West Leederville Leederville Nedlands Doubleview East Fremantle Bicton Leederville Mount Hawthorn Kensington Joondanna Innaloo Connolly Perth metro regions Regions Median Price June 2018 median price % % % Inner $817,500-1% -0.9% 3% North East $430,000-1% -4% 14% North West $497, % -0.6% 8% South East $457, % 6% 6% South West $465,500-0% -0% 7% WA regions Regions Median Price June 2018 median price % % % Broome $430,000-4% -5% 8% Bunbury $277,500-19% -3% -8% 22

23 REALESTATE.COM.AU PROPERTY MARKET REPORT JULY 2018 This report uses realestate.com.au internal data that is current as at the time of publication. This report provides general information only and is not intended to constitute any advice or appraisal and should not be relied upon as doing so. If you wish to cite or refer to this report (or any findings or data contained in it) in any publication, please refer to the report as the realestate.com.au Property Outlook July Methodology Property for property provides data and insights relating to demand for residential dwellings across Australia, at a national level, capital city, local government area level, Statistical Area Level 4 and by suburb according to property views data on realestate.com.au. It calculates the number of property views in the past 3 months against the average number of property listings on realestate.com.au. Median Price is calculated using CoreLogic sold price data for residential dwellings across Australia, at a national level, capital and local government areas. is for the past quarter for suburbs that have had at least 10 property sales. Data obtained by RP Data Pty Ltd trading as CoreLogic Asia Pacific is subject to the following copyright: 2018 Copyright RP Data Pty Ltd trading as CoreLogic (CoreLogic), Local, State, and Commonwealth Governments. All rights reserved. No reproduction, publication, adaption, modification, public communication, distribution or transmission of the copyrighted materials in this publication is permitted whether in whole or in part. The copyrighted materials in this publication are provided for personal or internal business purposes only unless otherwise agreed in writing. The information provided in this publication is current as at the publication date only. CoreLogic does not warrant accuracy or completeness in the information it supplies and to the full extent allowed by law excludes any liability for any loss or damage arising from or in connection with the supply or use of the whole or any part of the information in this publication through any cause whatsoever and limits any liability it may have to the amount paid to CoreLogic for the supply of such information. 23