WEST COAST REGION KEY ECONOMIC INDICATORS & FACT BOOK JULY 2018

Transcription

1 1 WEST COAST REGION KEY ECONOMIC INDICATORS & FACT BOOK JULY 2018

2 Contents Section About This Fact Book Overarching Vision and Strategies Key Economic Indicators Performance Key Economic Indicators - Forecasts GDP (at 2010 prices) Population FTEs Employment/Labour Market Business Units Mean Annual Income Connectivity/Transport in the Region District Challenges - Strategic Intent, Issues & Insights Page Number

3 About This Fact Book Purpose - The fact book is designed to give you the most up to date data available from various sources in order to understand how the economy works. Whilst the numbers themselves are important, of more importance is the interpretation of the trends. Interpretation can take many forms and in some case assumptions have to be used. Those assumptions must be able to withstand robust challenge and in many cases have links to other information; a good example is page 11. The link between movements in GDP, FTE, BU and mean annual income = movements in population and house prices. Testing the data - Facts themselves do not necessarily provide the answers to questions but can present insights that enable you to get a better understanding of the correct question to ask. One of the most common models used in data analysis is the three W s WHAT did happen, WHEN did it happen, WHY did it happen. A very simple yet effective method of gaining insights and understanding of the data being used. How to use the data - Comparison data within the region of each districts performance provides the opportunity to learn from each district how to improve performance across the whole region. Page 28 highlights the performance of the top 3 economic drivers by each district, both Grey and Westland have grown but Buller has declined prompting the question WHY. Comparisons can also be made across regions of NZ. Page 29 highlights the West Coast performance in the top 3 economic drivers verses similar economies of Gisborne and Marlborough. The question to be asked is WHAT are Gisborne and Marlborough doing to show growth and WHY has the West Coast declined. Looking closely at the data it shows that the top 3 GDP contributors for both Marlborough and Gisborne have not changed however in the case of the West Coast the change is dramatic. The question then becomes WHAT is the likely impact and WHEN is it likely to become critical. The impact could include loss of skills and Business units, that could mean a need for different training or education and some cases change of investment. Strategy Development - Strategy is defined as a high-level plan to achieve one or more goals under conditions of uncertainty. Execution of the strategy is defined as the science and art of using all resources available to execute approved plans. This makes strategy development a very important process with a focus on reducing the risk of uncertainty and ensuring that all resources are able to participate or understand the process. That places an enormous responsibility to ensure that you have the data, facts, engage in discussion groups, and have available many sources of anecdotal evidence. The roadblock to good strategy development is denial of the information being used making the source of the information critical. The Pace of Change - Forecasting is dependent on having the correct milestones in place to ensure success and a very clear understanding of what data was used to make the forecast. Change today happens fast and disruptive industries can become the death knell of any business model quickly. Data should be reviewed 6 monthly to ensure key milestones are being met, if not, was the original analysis correct? what has changed? what corrective action is needed?

4 Overarching Vision and Strategies 4

5 West Coast Economic Development Strategy Overview WEST COAST ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT VISION The West Coast will become a thriving and prosperous region - working together to drive innovation through better utiilisation of our unique natural resources will enable us to grow and care for our communities and our environment KEY STRATEGIES TO DELIVER THE VISION Attract new business that diversifies our economy Create added value opportunities to futureproof existing business Continued investment in Tourism to support new economy Infrastructure investment to support growth & resilience Maximise use of Stewardship and Cultural land Education and training programs fit for purpose Maximise the Maori Economy He kai kei aku ringa Assess & meet demands of ageing population Guiding Principles Kaitiakitanga Kotahitanga Manaakitanga Guardianship Unity Mutual respect 5

6 Building Blocks to Executional Excellence & Success ECONOMIC CHANGE through strong change management leadership to drive positive economic change ENABLED BY 1. Working together Collaboration + Co-ordination + Co-operation = Leverage 2. Building on and utilising our Natural Resources 3. Assisting existing Businesses to Add Value 4. Digital connectivity to facilitate Technological Change 5. Education/Training to improve skills capability DESIRED OUTCOME Change perception of the West Coast to a forward looking diversified economy assisted by a very strong branded message 6

7 7 Key Economic Indicators Performance

8 Key Indicators West Coast as % of NZ NZ West Coast Region Buller District Grey District Westland District Population 2017 Infometrics 0.68% 4,793,900 32,500 10,150 13,500 8,810 % change % -1.8% -4.7% -2.9% +2.9% % change % 0% -0.5% -0.4% +0.6% GDP ($m) 2017 (2010 prices)infometrics 0.66% 235,489 1, % change % -19.8% -39.6% -12.6% +12.2% % change % -4.5% -10.2% -0.7% -2.9% Employment (FTEs) 2017 Infometrics 0.66% 2,410,161 15,944 4,174 7,284 4,486 % change % -9.6% -23.5% -8.6% +6.6% % change % -3.3% -8.2% -2.0% -0.6% NOTE: GDP is more volatile on the West Coast given its reliance on commodity products which are driven by international supply and demand curves and $NZ exchange rates 8

9 Key Indicators West Coast as % of NZ NZ West Coast Region Buller District Grey District Westland District Business Units 2017 Infometrics 0.66% 563,295 3,729 1,110 1,383 1,236 % change % -4.2% -6.6% -4.2% -2.1% % change % -1.1% -3.4% -2.8% -0.7% Mean Annual Income 2016 ($) Infometrics -8.6% 57,780 52,800 56,250 52,180 50,240 % change % +7.5% +5.1% +8.2% +13.3% % change % +1.2% -1.9% +3.0% +3.8% Median House Price 2017 Infometrics -67.8% $625,034 $201,450 $192,499 $208,665 $236,489 % change % +0.6% -0.6% +1.0% +2.8% 9

10 Performance et 2012 Best Performance in 17 years almost entirely driven by Mining Key Indicator Gap % change West Coast as % of NZ GDP $m (at 2010 prices) $ 1,924 $ 1, % 0.66% Population $ 32,800 $ 32, % 0.68% Employment FTEs 17,635 15,944-1, % 0.66% Business Units 3,894 3, % 0.66% Mean Annual Earnings ( ) $'s $ 49,100 $ 52,800 3, % Average House Prices $ 203,332 $ 201,450-1, % Kept pace with inflation 10

11 Regional Economic Wellness Check 2017 v GDP FTEs BUs Mean Annual Income Popn Avg House Price Gisborne +11.8% +4.3% +1.9% +10.7% = +3.2% +15.5% Marlborough +12.0% +8.9% +2.6% +14.8% = +3.6% +24.0% West Coast -19.8% -9.6% -4.2% +7.5% = -1.8% -0.9% 11

12 Decline slowing 2017 with positive change 2018 West Coast Region Economic Indicators - % change Source: Infometrics 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% Population 0.0% -0.3% -0.6% -0.3% -0.6% 0.0% GDP 9.3% -6.0% -4.6% -1.2% -4.6% -4.5% 3.70% Employment 1.6% -0.5% -1.8% -0.5% -3.9% -3.3% Business Units 0.1% -0.8% 0.9% -0.2% -2.1% -2.1% Mean Annual Income 4.7% 3.9% -0.5% 2.8% 1.2% Median House Price 3.1% 3.9% -0.3% -3.0% -2.1% 0.6% 12

13 13 Key Economic Indicators Forecasts

14 What does Success look like? Increase by 2025 o Increase GDP by 1.5% p.a. from $1,555m (2017) to $1,791m (at 2010 prices) +$236m o Increase Jobs from 15,944 (2017) to 16,521 FTEs +577 o Increase GDP/Capita (productivity) from $47,507 (2017) to $53, % o Increase Population from 32,500 (2017) to 33,500 +1,000 o Increase Mean Annual Earnings from $52,800 (2016) to $60,400 +$7,600 o Increase number of Business Units from 3,729 (2017) to 3, (average of 4.3 employees per business unit) o Increase in Average House price from $201,450 (2017) to $218,141 +$16,691 14

15 2,500 Actual West Coast Region GDP (at 2010 prices) Forecast 2,000 1,924 1,791 1,500 1,555 +$236m 1,000 Rationale increase GDP by 1.5% p.a. Increase 2025 v = 16%

16 West Coast Region Population Forecast 33,600 33,400 33,200 33,100 Actual Forecast Need to increase population in the youth (0-14) and Working age (15-64) groups 33,500 33,000 32,800 32,600 32,400 32,200 GDP per Capita 2012 = $58, = $47, = $53, % 32,500 Increase in population by 1, % 32,

17 West Coast Region FTE Forecast 18,000 17,634 Actual Forecast 17,500 17,000 Upskilling training and investing in Intellectual capital is required 16,500 16,000 15,500 15,000 Productivity: GDP/employee $109, = $96, = $108, % 15,944 Increase +577 FTEs +3.6% 4.3 FTEs per Business Unit ,521 17

18 3,950 Business Unit Growth Forecast 3,900 3,894 Actual Forecast 3,850 3,842 3,800 3,750 3,700 GDP per Business Unit 2012 = $494, = $414, = $466, % 3,729 Increase by +113 BUs +3% 3,650 3,

19 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 Forecast West Coast Region Mean Annual Income Actual Forecast 52,800 Increase +$7,600 60,400 30,000 Increase by 1.5% p.a. 20,000 10,

20 $220,000 $215,000 Actual Average House Price Forecast to 2025 Forecast $218,141 $210,000 $205,000 $201,450 Increase by $16,691 $200,000 $195,000 Increase by 1% p.a. $190,

21 Regional Economic Wellness Check 2017 v GDP FTEs BUs Mean Annual Income Population Avg House Price West Coast -19.8% -9.6% -4.2% +7.5% = -1.8% -0.9% 2025 v GDP FTEs BUs Mean Annual Income Population Avg House Price West Coast +15.2% +3.6% +3.0% +14.4% = +3.1% +8.3% 21

22 22 Key Economic Indicators - GDP (at 2010 prices)

23 Key Indicators NZ West Coast Region Gisborne Region Marlborough Region Population 2017 Infometrics 4,793,900 32,500 48,500 46,200 % change % -1.8% +3.2% +3.6% % change % 0.0% +1.3% +1.5% GDP ($m) 2017 (at 2010 prices) Infometrics 235,489 1,555 1,505 2,349 % change % -19.8% % +12.0% % change % -4.5% +3.1% +3.0% Employment (FTEs) 2017 Infometrics 2,410,161 15,944 21,478 26,294 % change % -9.6% +4.3% +8.9% % change % -3.3% +0.9% +1.1% 23

24 Key Indicators NZ West Coast Region Gisborne Region Marlborough Region Business Units 2017 Infometrics 563,295 3,729 5,040 7,059 % change % -4.2% +1.9% +2.6% % change % -1.1% +0.1% +0.6% Mean Annual Income 2016 ($) Infometrics 57,780 52,800 47,980 50,720 % change % +7.5% +10.7% +14.8% % change % +1.2% +2.4% 3.7% Median House Price 2017 Infometrics $625,034 $201,450 $258,129 $416,314 % change % +0.6% +15.7% +13.8% Median Price change Jan 2018 REINZ +7.1% -10.0% 4.0% 5.1% 24

25 Infometrics GDP At 2010 prices Industry West Coast Region 2012 $m GDP Rank $m GDP Rank 2014 % growth Gisborne Region 2012 $m GDP Rank $m GDP Rank 2014 % growth Marlborough Region 2012 Rank $m GDP Rank $m GDP 2014 % growth Mining % % % Dairy % % % Construction % % % Tourism % % % Manufacturing less Dairy % % % Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services % % % Health Care and Social Assistance % % % Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing less Dairy % % % Retail Trade % % % Accommodation and Food Services % % % Education and Training % % % Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services % % % Professional, Scientific and Technical Services % % % Total GDP 1, , % 1, , % 2, , % Top % % % % of Total 42.6% 39.3% 31.1% 32.9% 42.3% 42.3% CHANGE GROWTH STABILITY 25

26 Infometrics GDP At 2010 prices West Coast Region Gisborne Region Marlborough Region Industry 2015 Rank $m GDP Rank $m GDP 2017 % growth $m GDP Rank $m GDP Rank 2017 % growth Rank $m GDP Rank $m GDP 2017 % growth Dairy % % % Tourism % % % Construction % % % Mining % % % Manufacturing less Dairy % % % Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services % % % Health Care and Social Assistance % % % Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing less Dairy % % % Retail Trade % % % Accommodation and Food Services % % % Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services % % % Education and Training % % % Total GDP % % % Top % % % % of Total 38.4% 36.5% 31.1% 33.8% 42.3% 42.1% CHANGE CHANGE STABILITY 26

27 Infometrics GDP At 2010 prices Industry West Coast Region 2012 Rank $m GDP Rank $m GDP 2017 %growth Gisborne Region 2012 Rank $m GDP Rank $m GDP 2017 %growth Marlborough Region 2012 Rank $m GDP Rank $m GDP 2017 %growth Dairy % % % Tourism % % % Construction % % % Mining % % % Manufacturing less Dairy % % % Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services % % % Health Care and Social Assistance % % % Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing less Dairy % % % Retail Trade % % % Accommodation and Food Services % % % Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services % % % Education and Training % % % Total GDP % % % Top % % % % of Total 42.6% 36.5% 31.1% 33.8% 42.3% 42.1% CHANGE GROWTH STABILITY 27

28 Infometrics GDP at 2010 prices West Coast Region Buller District Grey District Westland District Industry 2015 Rank $m GDP $m GDP Rank 2017 % growth Ra nk $m GDP Rank $m GDP 2017 % growth $m 2015 $m GDP 2017 GDP Rank 2015 Rank 2017 % growth $m GDP 2017 Rank 2015 Rank Dairy % % % % Tourism % % % % Construction % % % % Mining % % % % Manufacturing less Dairy % % % % Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services % % % % Health Care and Social Assistance % % % % Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing less Dairy % % % % Retail Trade % % % % Accommodation and Food Services % % % % Transport, Postal and Warehousing % % % % Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services % % % % Total % % % % - Top % % % % % of Total 38.4% 36.5% 49.9% 40.0% 30.0% 30.7% 53.4% 55.8% CHANGE CHANGE GROWTH GROWTH 28 $m GDP 2017 % growth

29 Infometrics GDP at 2010 prices Industry West Coast Region Gisborne Region Marlborough Region 2016 Rank $m GDP Rank $m GDP 2017 % growth Dairy % % % Tourism % % % Construction % % % Mining % % % Manufacturing less Dairy % % % Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services % % % Health Care and Social Assistance % % % Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing less Dairy % % % Retail Trade % % % Accommodation and Food Services % % % Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services % % % Education and Training % % % Professional, Scientific and Technical Services % % % Total % % % Top % % % % of Total 36.8% 36.5% 33.0% 33.8% 42.4% 42.1% 2016 Rank $m GDP Rank $m GDP 2017 % growth Rank $m GDP Rank $m GDP 2017 % growth CHANGE STABILITY STABILITY 29

30 Infometrics GDP at 2010 prices Industry West Coast Region Buller District Grey District Westland District 2012 $m GDP Rank Rank $m GDP 2017 % growth Ran k $m GDP Rank $m GDP 2017 % growth Rank $m GDP Rank $m GDP 2017 % growth Rank $m $m GDP 2017 GDP 2012 Rank 2017 % growth Dairy % % % % Tourism % % % % Construction % % % % Mining % % % % Manufacturing less Dairy % % % % Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services % % % % Health Care and Social Assistance % % % % Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing less Dairy % % % % Retail Trade % % % % Accommodation and Food Services % % % % Transport, Postal and Warehousing % % % % Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services % % % % Total 1, , % % % % Top % % % % 55.8 % CHANGE CHANGE CHANGE GROWTH 30 % of Total 42.6% 36.5% 59.4% 40.0% 36.6% 30.7% 48.3%

31 West Coast Region Top 10 Industries ($m GDP) Source: Infometrics Accommodation and Food Services Retail Trade Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing less Dairy Health Care and Social Assistance Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services Manufacturing less Dairy Mining Construction Tourism Dairy

32 West Coast Growth 2017 GDP Growth over various periods Source: Infometrics West Coast 2012 Rank 2017 Rank % growth Marlborough Region Gisborne Region West Coast Region New Zealand % % -8.00% -6.00% -4.00% -2.00% 0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 6.00% 8.00% Significant change in West Coast mix compared to Marlborough and Gisborne Mining % Dairy % Construction % Tourism % Key industries Gisborne 2012 Rank 2017 Rank % growth Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing % Health Care and Social Assistance % Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services % Construction % Manufacturing % Gisborne is the 4 th Fastest growing Regional Economy % Key industries Marlborough growth Rank Rank Manufacturing (Wine) % Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing % Tourism % Owner-Occupied Property Operation % 32

33 GDP Growth over various periods Source: Infometrics Westland District the only area in Growth Westland District Grey District Buller District West Coast Region % % % % -5.00% 0.00% 5.00%

34 West Coast Region Economic Drivers Source: Infometrics GDP at 2010 prices Main Economic Drivers (exported from Region) Minerals Dairy (including Dairy Manufacturing) Tourism Forestry, Fishing, Agriculture Dependent Economic Drivers (industry supporting the MEDs) Construction Property Transport/Freight IT/Energy Professional Services Manufacturing Retail Other Government (Government support functions) GDP 2017 = $620.8m -23.5% GDP 2012 = $811.3m GDP 2017 = $772.5m -23.2% GDP 2012 =$941.0m GDP 2017 = $161.2m -6.3% GDP 2012 = $172m Health Education TOTAL GDP 2017 = $1,554.6m -19.2% Government Services TOTAL GDP 2012 = $1,924.3m 34

35 GDP $ s at 2010 prices West Coast Region 2012 West Coast Region 2017 Gap Dairy % Tourism % Mining % Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing less Dairy % Main Economic Drivers % Construction % Manufacturing less Dairy % Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services % Retail Trade % Accommodation and Food Services % Transport, Postal and Warehousing % Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services % Wholesale Trade % Professional, Scientific and Technical Services % Administrative and Support Services % Financial and Insurance Services % Arts and Recreation Services % Information Media and Telecommunications % Dependent Economic Drivers % Invest to continue growth Future Govt influence? Under investment? Commodity pricing? Value Add? Invest to support 35

36 Top 4 Main Economic Drivers - GDP (at 2010 prices) Source: Infometrics Global Financial Crisis Supply & Demand change, Demise of Solid Energy, Pike River Mining Dairy Tourism Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing less Dairy 36

37 TOP 4 DEPENDENT ECONOMIC DRIVERS SHOWING GROWTH GDP (AT 2010 PRICES) S O U R C E : I N F O M E T R I C S 180 Manufacturing less Dairy Construction Retail Trade Accommodation and Food Services

38 GOVERNMENT SERVICES - GDP (AT 2010 PRICES) SOURCE: I N F O M E T R I C S Public Administration and Safety Education and Training Health Care and Social Assistance Need increased investment In skills training

39 West Coast Region Economic Drivers GDP at 2010 prices Source: Infometrics Government GDP $m 8.9% $172m 2012 $811.3m Main Economic Drivers GDP $m 42.2% Government GDP $m 10% 2014 $170.7m $672.2m Main Economic Drivers GDP $m 39% Dependent Economic Drivers GDP $m 48.9% $941.0m Dependent Economic Drivers GDP $m 51% $884.1m TOTAL GDP $1,924.3m TOTAL GDP $1,809.6m -6% 39

40 West Coast Region Economic Drivers GDP (2010 $ prices) Source: Government 10% Infometrics $168.5m 2015 Increase in Dependent drivers risk for mean annual earnings and employment $726.8m Main Economic Drivers 43% Government No change $161.2m 2017 $620.8m Main Economic Drivers Decline -3% Dependent Economic Drivers 47% $812.0m Dependent Economic Drivers Increase + 3% $772.5m Total GDP $1,707.2m Total GDP $1,554.6m -8.9% 40

41 West Coast Region Economic Drivers Source: Infometrics Dependent Economic Drivers 50% Government 10% GDP 2017 V 2015 AT 2010 PRICES $161.2m - 4.4% $772.5m -4.9% $620.8m -14.6% Main Economic Drivers 40% Restructure of BUs Government FTEs 9% Dependent Economic Drivers FTEs 52% FTES 2017 V % % % Main Economic Drivers FTEs 39% Tourism growth driving employment in this GDP sector Total GDP $1,554.6m -8.9% Total FTEs 15, % 41

42 GDP & Employment West Coast Region - Source: Infometrics GDP $m at 2010 prices Employment FTEs Main Economic Drivers GDP Dependent Economic Drivers GDP Government GDP Main Economic Drivers FTEs Dependent Economic Drivers FTEs Government FTEs 0 42

43 60.0% GDP & Employment % of Total West Coast Region - Source: Infometrics 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% Main Economic Drivers GDP Main Economic Drivers FTEs Dependent Economic Drivers GDP Dependent Economic Drivers FTEs Government GDP Government FTEs 43

44 West Coast Region Main Economic Drivers - Category Shares GDP (2010 $ prices) Source: Infometrics Movement of GDP Tourism +7.4% Dairy -1.4% Agriculture +0.1% Mining -48% Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing less Dairy 10% $71.8m 2015 Tourism 22% $159.0m Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing less Dairy 12% 2017 $72.0m $178.2m Tourism 29% $136.1m Mining 35% $258.0m Mining 22% $238.0m Total Main Economic Drivers GDP $726.8m Dairy 33% $234.5m Dairy 38% Total Main Economic Drivers GDP $620.8m -14.6% 44

45 International $41m, 35% Increase +10.3% Buller largest growth of Districts TOURISM EXPENDITURE GREY DISTRICT YE FEB 2018 SOURCE: MBIE Domestic $118m +5.6% International, $29 m 40% Increase +27.1% International TOURISM EXPENDITURE BULLER DISTRICT YE FEB 2018 SOURCE: MBIE Domestic $73m +19% Domestic, $76m, 65% Increase +3.2% International Grey lowest growth of all Districts Domestic, $44 m 60% Increase % TOURISM EXPENDITURE WEST COAST YE FEB 2018 SOURCE: MBIE International $302 m 55% Increase % Domestic International TOURISM EXPENDITURE WESTLAND DISTRICT YE FEB 2018 SOURCE: MBIE International $232m, 65% +10.1% Domestic $357m +13.1% International $548m +12.1% Domestic, $125m, 35% +18.9% Domestic, $245 m 45% Increase +12.7% Westland largest growth in Domestic 45

46 REGION (Source: MBIE) Spend YEMar Year to Year Growth March Spend Month to Month Growth West Coast $557 m 14% $70 m 16% Taranaki $387 m 13% $40 m 23% Canterbury $3,741 m 12% $392 m 21% Tasman $321 m 12% $37 m 12% Otago $3,785 m 12% $389 m 21% Gisborne $151 m 11% $16 m 40% Southland $647 m 11% $76 m 12% Auckland $8,358 m 9% $820 m 2% National $28,470 m 9% $2,884 m 11% Bay of Plenty $1,875 m 8% $174 m 14% Marlborough $387 m 8% $49 m 22% Waikato $2,609 m 8% $255 m 13% Northland $1,128 m 7% $110 m 8% Manawatu- Whanganui $1,000 m 6% $90 m 7% Wellington $2,525 m 6% $260 m 6% Hawke's Bay $636 m 6% $65 m 12% Nelson $362 m 5% $40 m 9% 46

47 Tourism GDP $m at 2010 prices Source: Infometrics v West Coast GDP +5.3% NZ GDP -0.4% West Coast getting expenditure & yield across all Districts West Coast & Districts GDP $m West Coast Region Buller District Grey District Westland District 47

48 Milk Solids Production (million kgs.) Source: Infometrics At $5.65/kg = $287m /18 Payout Fonterra = $6.55 /kg Westland = $ $6.40 /kg At $5.65/kg = $113.3m At $5.65/kg = $94.4m At $5.65/kg = $81.4m West Coast Region Buller Distric Grey District WestlandDistrit 48

49 49 Key Economic Indicators Population

50 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 33,000 Population Projections Source: Statistics NZ 33,300 32,500 31,700 34,100 32,500 30,800 Statistics NZ considers the medium projection suitable for assessing future population changes, which is on trend for 2018, but our projection is between the Medium and Low range 34,800 35,300 35,700 36,000 32,300 31,900 29,800 28,500 31,300 26,900 30,600 25,200 10,000 5,000 0 Three projections (low, medium, and high growth) incorporating different fertility, mortality, and migration assumptions for each geographic area have been produced to illustrate a range of possible scenarios. 2013(3) West Coast Region High West Coast region Medium West Coast region Low 50

51 Population Growth over various time periods Source: Infometrics Westland District only area of Growth Westland District Grey District Buller District West Coast Region -2.00% -1.50% -1.00% -0.50% 0.00% 0.50% 1.00% 1.50% Net migration 2017: West Coast -100 Buller District - 50 Grey District -100 Westland District + 50 Population growth : West Coast 0.0% Buller District -0.5% Grey District -0.4% Westland District +0.6% Population growth : West Coast - 0.6% Buller District - 2.0% Grey District - 1.1% Westland District + 1.0% 51

52 Population Growth by Age Source: Infometrics Marlborough Region Gisborne Region West Coast Region West Coast education & retraining given changes in Main Economic Drivers Marlborough Region Gisborne Region West Coast Region % -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0%

53 Aging population with decline in youth 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% West Coast Population by Age Group - Source Infometrics 63.9% 63.3% Buller & Grey Aging. All districts losing 0-14 age group. Westland recovering in working age group 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 18.7% 17.4% 17.8% 18.8% 10.0% 0.0% West Coast 2015 West Coast

54 25000 West Coast & District Population by Age Group - Source Infometrics Declining youth and working age with growth in aging population (except Westland) West Coast 2015 West Coast 2017 Buller District 2015 Buller District 2017 Grey District 2015 Grey District 2017 Westland District Westland District

55 West Coast Population Distribution By District 2017 Source: Infometrics 8810, 27% 10150, 31% 13500, 42% Buller District Grey District Westland District 55

56 2013 West Coast Region Population by Gender Source: 2013Census 49.7% 50.3% Male Female West Coast is one of the few areas of NZ where there are more males than females! 56

57 30,000 25,000 20,000 24,024 27,438 Cultural Diversity West Coast Region Source Census 2013 Less Ethnic diversity than most of NZ. Growth in Asian Population 15,000 10,000 5, ,916 3, European Māori Pacific peoples Asian Middle Eastern, Latin American, African(2) Other ethnicity(3) 57

58 12,000 Legally registered relationship status of people in West Coast Region Source: Census 11, % 10, % 10,000 8,000 7, % 7, % Similar picture for all Districts 6,000 4,000 2, % % 2,178 2, % 8.7% 1, % 1, % 0 Never married(3) Married (not separated) Separated(4) Divorced or dissolved(5) Widowed(6)

59 Unless we can retain our youth and skills the West Coast is in danger of becoming a retirement village 59 Source: NZ Stats

60 General Rates income 2017 (not including targeted rates) General Rates $ GST inclusive Number of Rating Units $ per Rating Unit Buller District Council $8,314, $1, Buller General Rate WCRC Westland District Council Westland General Rate WCRC $830, $98.83 $803,850 7,605 $ Grey District Council $9,532, $1, Grey General Rate WCRC $1,045, $

61 61 Key Economic Indicators FTEs Employment/Labour Market

62 6.00% 4.00% 2.00% 0.00% -2.00% -4.00% -6.00% -8.00% % % Employment Growth Source: Infometrics West Coast Region Buller District Grey District Westland District West Coast Region declining Employment Trend but slowed to -3.3% 2017 v Employment Growth West Coast - 9.6% Buller District -23.5% Grey District - 8.6% Westland District + 6.6% Productivity 2017 (GDP per employee) West Coast - 1.3% Buller District - 2.2% Grey District +1.3% Westland District - 2.3% 62

63 Proportion of Filled jobs by Industry - West Coast Region 2017 Source: Infometrics Job growth in Tourism related industries, Dairy Manufacturing, Meat & Seafood Processing Job Losses in Coal and Gold Ore Mining, Dairy Farming, Cement & Lime Manufacture FTE change West Coast Region Supermarket and Grocery Stores Cement and Lime Manufacturing Gold Ore Mining Dairy Cattle Farming Coal Mining Meat Processing Seafood Processing Cafes and Restaurants Cheese and Other Dairy Product Accommodation

64 Employment in Key Industries West Coast Region Source: Infometrics Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services Financial and Insurance Services Information Media and Telecommunications Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services Arts and Recreation Services Public Administration and Safety Wholesale Trade Other Services Administrative and Support Services Professional, Scientific and Technical Services Mining Transport, Postal and Warehousing Education and Training Health Care and Social Assistance Retail Trade Accommodation and Food Services Manufacturing Construction Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing Tourism Growth in Tourism related industries and Manufacturing replacing Mining and Dairy Farming ,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,

65 2012 to 2017 Top Five Employers Investment Productivity per Employees $m Employee Accommodation & Food % $ % 100% +33.7% Healthcare % $ % 100% +70.9% Mining % $ % 100% +67.4% Dairy Farming % $ % 100% +56.2% Education & Training % $ % 100% -16.3% Top 5 Growth in Employees Seafood Processing +85 Wood Product Manufacturing & Furniture +82 Accommodation & Food Services +54 Agricultural Support Services +50 Sheep, Beef Cattle & Grain Farming +45 Need an increase in investment for upskilling/training Top 5 Losses in Employees Mining -950 Dairy Cattle Farming -229 Professional, Scientific & Tech Services -167 Health Care & Social Assistance -165 Supermarket & Specialised Food Retailing & Wholesale

66 Skills Shortage Migrants hired in 2015 on West Coast Health Professionals Registered Nurses Hospitality, Retail & Service Managers Food Trades Workers Chefs Café & Restaurant Managers Livestock Farmers Sports & Personal Service Workers 66

67 67

68 % Employment Structure - West Coast Region Source: Infometrics % % Need to grow Main Economic Drivers to attract skilled labour force to West Coast % % % % % % % % % Total Main Economic Drivers FTEs Dependent Economic Drivers FTEs Government FTEs 68

69 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -0.3% Primary Achievement (aged 5-13) 2016 Source: Ministry of Education (Students at or above National Standards) -1.2% +0.2% -1.7% +0.4% -0.4% -0.6% +0.8% +0.3% Reading Writing Mathematics West Coast Region Marlborough Region Gisborne Region 69

70 Secondary Achievement (aged 13-18) 2016 Source: Ministry of Education Gisborne Region +1.1% -3.0% Marlborough Region -2.1% -0.8% West Coast Region -3.8% -0.1% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0% NCEA Level 3 or above 18 year olds with NCEA Level 2 70

71 West Coast Region School leaver enrolments one year after leaving school Source: Ministry of Education Not in Tertiary Education Private Training Establishments Wananga Polytechnics Universities

72 72

73 TPP Enrolments Funding Source EFTS Student Numbers SAC Level Level 1 and SAR ACE (Search and Rescue) International Domestic Full Cost Recovery Youth Guarantee Balance consisting of STAR (Secondary Tertiary Alignment Resource), Training Opportunities, and Adult and Community Education Total Whole institute: 2017 EFTS and enrolments by funding source 73

74 TPP West Coast 2017 EFTS and enrolment by department West Coast EFTS Business and Computing 33 Emergency Management 123 General Studies 99 Outdoor Education 77 Trades Student Numbers* Note this is by West Coast department and will include some students studying outside the West Coast. Conversely it will exclude some other faculty delivery on the West Coast. 74

75 TPP 2018 applications and enrolments (as at 12 February 2018) West Coast 2018 EFTS 2017 EFTS 2018 Student Numbers 2017 Student Numbers Business and Computing 8 Emergency Management 0 General Studies 37 Outdoor Education 53 Trades applications and enrolments (as at 12 February 2018) 75

76 Self Employment Rate Source: Infometrics 25.0% 20.0% 18.5% 20.9% 21.0% 20.9% 18.9% 19.0% 18.9% 20.4% 15.0% 15.4% 15.0% 14.9% 14.7% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% West Coast Region Gisborne Region Marlborough Region 76

77 30.0% Self Employment Rate Source: Infometrics Declining in all areas except Buller 25.0% 24.9% 25.1% 24.5% 23.1% 20.0% 15.0% 18.5% 18.9% 19.0% 18.9% 18.0% 17.3% 17.4% 15.9% 16.4% 16.4% 20.3% 15.5% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% West Coast Region Buller District Grey District Westland District 77

78 Self Employed by Industry West Coast Region Source: Infometrics Financial and Insurance Services Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services Arts and Recreation Services Wholesale Trade Public Administration and Safety Professional, Scientific and Technical Services Other Services Mining Administrative and Support Services Transport, Postal and Warehousing Education and Training Health Care and Social Assistance Retail Trade Construction Manufacturing Accommodation and Food Services Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing Key Industries for Self Employed: Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing, Tourism, & Construction ,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 Self-Employment Full Employment 78

79 Unemployment Rate Source: infometrics Marlborough Region 3.6% % 1123 Gisborne Region 8.1% % 2557 West Coast Region % % 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% 10.0%

80 Unemployment Rate Source: infometrics Slight improvement in overall rate driven by Grey and Westland Westland District 2.9% 3.4% Grey District 3.7% 4.0% Buller District 4.6% 4.6% West Coast Region 3.8% 4.0% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0%

81 Employment by Skill level Source: Infometrics Total 15,944 17,635 Low-skilled 42.7% 43.5% Semi-skilled Skilled 10.9% 10.4% 20.6% 20.9% Retention of skilled and highly skilled workers where possible during downturn Highly-skilled 25.9% 25.2% 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000 West Coast Region 2017 West Coast Region

82 Employment by Occupation Source: Infometrics Clerical & Office Support Workers Personal Assistants & Secretaries Arts & Media Professionals Health & Welfare Support Workers Food Preparation Assistants Protective Service Workers ICT Professionals Skilled Animal & Horticultural Workers Electrotech & Telecoms Trades Workers Other Clerical & Administrative Workers Other Technicians & Trades Workers Numerical Clerks Construction & Mining Labourers Inquiry Clerks & Receptionists General Clerical Workers Sports & Personal Service Workers Mobile Plant Operators Engineering, ICT & Science Technicians Construction Trades Workers Sales Representatives & Agents Office Managers & Program Administrators Machine & Stationary Plant Operators Hospitality Workers Factory Process Workers Chief Execs, General Managers, Legislators Automotive & Engineering Trades Workers Road & Rail Drivers Cleaners & Laundry Workers Business, HR & Marketing Professionals Farm, Forestry & Garden Workers Other Labourers Health Professionals Farmers & Farm Managers Specialist Managers ,000 1,200 1,

83 West Coast Region changes in employment 2017 v.2016 Source: Infometrics -8.00% -3.50% -2.30% -4.80% 0.00% % -3.80% -3.20% -2.60% -9.00% -8.00% -7.00% -6.00% -5.00% -4.00% -3.00% -2.00% -1.00% 0.00% Machinery operators and drivers Sales workers Labourers Clerical and administrative workers Community, personal service workers Technicians and trades workers Managers Professionals 83

84 84 Key Economic Indicators Business Units

85 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% -1.0% -1.5% -2.0% Business Unit Growth Source: Infometrics Decline from 2014 with signs of slowing Business Unit Growth West Coast - 4.2% Buller District - 6.6% Grey District - 4.2% Westland District -2.1% Business Unit Growth West Coast -165 BUs Buller District -63 BUs Grey District -72 BUs Westland District -30 Bus -2.5% West Coast Region 85

86 4.00% Business Unit Growth Source: Infometrics 3.00% 2.00% 1.00% Business Unit Growth West Coast - 4.2% Gisborne + 1.9% Marlborough + 2.6% New Zealand +10.5% 0.00% -1.00% % -3.00% New Zealand West Coast Region Gisborne Region Marlborough Region 86

87 Business Size - Number of Employees per BU s 2017 excluding owner/operated business with no employees Source: Infometrics 100 and over 50 to to to 19 25% of Grey District BUs in 10 + size due to Service type/govt Westland at 73.2% and Buller at 68.1% dominant in 1-5 employees size businesses 6 to 9 1 to 5 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% Westland District Grey District Buller District West Coast 87

88 Number of Business Units by Industry - West Coast Region Source: Infometrics Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services Information Media and Telecommunications Public Administration and Safety Administrative and Support Services Arts and Recreation Services Mining Education and Training Wholesale Trade Health Care and Social Assistance Financial and Insurance Services Transport, Postal and Warehousing Manufacturing Professional, Scientific and Technical Services Retail Trade Accommodation and Food Services Construction Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing - 81 Business Units across West Coast - Biggest losses in Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing & Construction

89 89 Key Economic Indicators Mean Annual Earnings

90 5.00% Mean Annual Earnings Source: Infometrics 4.00% 3.00% 2.00% 1.00% 0.00% % New Zealand West Coast Region Gisborne Region Marlborough Region 90

91 7.00% 6.00% 5.00% 4.00% 3.00% 2.00% 1.00% Personal Income - Mean Annual Earnings % growth p.a. Source: Infometrics % increase slowed from 2016 with Buller decreasing 0.00% -1.00% % -3.00% West Coast Region Buller District Grey District Westland District 91

92 70,000 Mean Annual Earnings $ Source: Infometrics Increase 2016 v 2015: NZ 3.1% = $57,780 West Coast + 1.2% Buller District 1.9% Grey District + 2.9% Westland District + 3.8% 60,000 50,000 57,330 52,160 52,800 50,680 48,420 56,250 52,180 50,240 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, West Coast Region Buller District Grey District Westland District 92

93 18.0% Beneficiaries as % of Working Age Population Source: Infometrics 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Buller District against the trend due to mining losses New Zealand West Coast Region Buller District Grey District Westland District 93

94 2017 Beneficiary Numbers by type Source: Infometrics 122 Sole Parent Support Total Beneficiary Numbers: West Coast Region 2495 Buller District 915 Grey District 957 Westland District 472 Supported Living Jobseeker Support Westland District Grey District Buller District West Coast Region 94

95 95 Key Economic Indicators Average House Prices

96 Average Current House Value Source: Infometrics Affordable Housing 2017 NZ Median = $625, % increase v West Coast Region Westland District Grey District Buller District $203,332 $201,450 $228,449 $236,489 $215,003 $208,665 $209,777 $192,499 WEST COAST Annual Median Price Change Jan 2018 v (REINZ) West Coast -10.0% Days to Sell Jan 2018 (REINZ) West Coast GDP $1,924m -19% Pop 33,100-1% BUs 3,894-4% Emp 17,635-9% Earning $49,100 +7% $- $50,000 $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250, = Impact on House Prices Non-inflation adjusted 96

97 12 10 Housing Affordability Ratio (Ratio of Average House Value to Average Annual Earnings) Source: Infometrics 9.59 Housing most affordable in Buller District New Zealand West Coast Region Buller District Grey District Westland District 97

98 Average Weekly Rent (to March) Source: Infometrics 381 Affordable rental properties v. NZ NZ West Coast Region Buller District Grey District Westland District 98

99 Connectivity/Transport in the Region 99

100 UFB Build out Plan West Coast Region City / Town / Area Partner Premises Covered Forecast Completion Date* Ahaura Chorus 61 by 2022^ Blackball Chorus 232 by 2022^ Carters Beach Chorus 221 by 2022^ Dobson Chorus 185 by 2022^ Fox Glacier Chorus 106 by 2022^ Franz Josef/Waiau Chorus 103 by 2022^ Granity Chorus 332 by 2022^ Greymouth Chorus 3,520 Completed Hari Hari Chorus 93 by 2022^ Hokitika Chorus 1, * Kaniere Chorus 204 by 2022^ Karamea Chorus 126 by 2022^ Kumara Chorus 169 by 2022^ Moana Chorus 304 by 2022^ Punakaiki Chorus 48 by 2022^ Reefton Chorus * Ross Chorus 177 by 2022^ Runanga Chorus * Taylorville Chorus 89 by 2022^ Waimangaroa Chorus 115 by 2022^ Westport Urban Chorus 2, * Whataroa Chorus 65 by 2022^ 100

101 7000 TranzAlpine Christchurch to Greymouth source: Greymouth isite / / / / / / July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar April May June Cancellations due to fire/weather events 101

102 7000 TranzAlpine Greymouth to Christchurch source: Greymouth isite / / / / / / July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar April May June Cancellations due to fire/weather 102

103 60000 TranzAlpine Movements recorded from Greymouth isite / / / / / / Christchurch to Greymouth Greymouth to Christchurch 103

104 Decline is against trend of Tourism Visitor numbers Hokitika Airport 13 Flights per week 2 per day & 1 Saturday Peak Tourism Season 104

105 Hokitika to Christchurch Demand dip over Xmas/Jan period with slowing of Business Travelers 105

106 106 District Challenges Strategic Intent, Issues and Insights