Capricorn Coast and Rockhampton Region Economic Snapshot March 2018

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2 The Capricorn Enterprise Quarterly Economic Snapshot for the Capricorn Coast and Rockhampton Region provides a regional economic outlook with key quarterly statistics including unemployment, property sales, building approvals and tourism indicators. Key statistics from the 2016 Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Census are also provided to offer insight into the region. Region: Whilst there is evidence of increased optimism and confidence across the business sector due to announcements and projects, our challenge will be maximising regional business content and participation across all these major works: the upgrade of the ADF Shoalwater Bay Training Area via the Remediation project and programmed expansion and upgrade of the facility under the ADF/SAF MTI, the highly anticipated announcement of the commencement of the Lower Fitzroy Water Infrastructure Project (Rookwood Weir), the Adani Carmichael Coal Mine, Rail and Port Project, the appointment of CPB as the Contractor for the Capricornia Correctional Centre Expansion major infrastructure projects including road and highway upgrades (Bruce and Capricorn), and new regional solar and wind projects. 2

3 significant opportunities for the region, the challenges that emerge will only be satisfied by working together and demonstrating co-operation, collaboration, a willingness to partner and forming joint-ventures to maximise local content. Our ultimate objectives are economic growth, community benefits, regional collaboration and cohesion. State and National Perspective: The CCIQ Pulse Survey for December 2017, further identifies key issues. Extract: Businesses are feeling more confident across the board and telling us that political stability, the Commonwealth games, elevated commodity prices and the value of the dollar are all contributing to stimulate business activity across industries in South East Queensland, and importantly in the regions. Sentiment has spiked in the 12-month outlook for both the Queensland and National economies, with confidence at positive levels. The key issues and concerns facing businesses remain similar to previous reports with international geopolitical issues, energy costs, and high levels of household debt weighing on sentiment. The broad range of performance indicators show an ongoing struggle in business operating conditions. While sales and revenues are generally expanding, profitability is still declining as operating costs expand exponentially compared to revenues. This is reflected in the General Business Conditions Index which contracted to 47.4 points in the latest quarter. In January the Suncorp Bank 1 issued its Economic & Investment Outlook Executive Summary Extract: Global economic activity has strengthened, with forecasts for 2018 now more likely to be revised higher than lower. Nevertheless, wage and price inflation continues to undershoot forecasts, reflecting both structural and cyclical developments. Looking ahead, firmer growth, stronger commodity prices and tightening labour markets are expected to lift wage and price pressures through saw the domestic economy establish a sounder footing. Of particular note is the boom in employment. Meanwhile, GDP growth of 2.8% over the past year represents a solid and resilient performance. Importantly, non-mining business investment is now rising. Despite the improvement in growth, productivity, inflation and wage growth remain stubbornly low. Following an upturn since 2011, Australian housing has slowed amid increased supply, reduced offshore demand and higher interest rates for certain mortgages. Looking ahead, we expect the sector to experience a soft landing. When combined with firmer business investment and increased infrastructure spending, this scenario provides a sound medium term outlook for the Australian economy. Throughout 2017, financial markets were characterised by low volatility and positive sentiment. The combination of solid profit growth, low interest rates and the anticipation of lower taxes was particularly favourable for equities. Looking ahead, the outlook is one of generally lower investment returns, including the following key themes. Share valuations are higher than a year ago - potentially raising the risk of adverse movements in the short term. Over the medium term, however, the economic environment appears conducive to share market gains. Global monetary policy has entered a new phase, with central banks winding back stimulus. This is expected to lead to further increases in bond yields continuing the period of subdued fixed interest returns. We expect the RBA to begin raising rates gradually from the second half of 2018 yet do not see this as threatening growth or precipitating a more serious housing downturn. As always there are risks to the outlook financial, geo-political and policy related. Domestically, we remain attuned to the risks stemming from the household and housing sectors. 1 Other major banking institutions were approached for permission to include their analysis in this report, with permission granted from Suncorp by publication deadline. 3

4 Key Local Trends The announcement of Rockhampton as a Fly-In-Fly-Out (FIFO) workforce hub with Townsville for the Adani Carmichael project is assisting business confidence. In addition, other local projects including the Capricornia Correctional Centre upgrade and Shoalwater Bay Military Training Area upgrades have contributed to improving business confidence. Whilst unemployment rates in the Capricorn Coast and Rockhampton region (7.5%) remain higher than the Queensland average (6.1%) in the quarter ended 31 December 2017, upcoming projects are expected to reverse this trend. Unemployment rates across the region s suburbs vary from lows in Glenlee Rockyview SA2 (2.1%) (Livingstone LGA) and Rockhampton Region West SA2 (2.6%) to highs in Mount Morgan SA2 (21.0%) and Rockhampton City SA2 (22.2%), with other suburbs lower or similar to the Queensland average including Norman Gardens SA2 (4.9%) (Rockhampton LGA), Yeppoon SA2 (6.2%) (Livingstone LGA) and The Range-Allenstown SA2 (6.5%) (Rockhampton LGA). Building approvals continued their downward trend, following the expected construction peak in The first results from the ABS 2016 Census of Population and Housing were released on 27 June Further 2016 Census data have been progressively released with employment data released in October The Independent Assurance Panel has concluded that the 2016 Census was of comparable quality to the 2011 and 2006 Census data with a person response rate of 94.8%. 4

5 The region has experienced demographic changes between the 2011 and 2016 Census periods, including: The regional population grew by approximately 1.2% per annum to 116,000 2 The median age of residents increased to 38 years Median personal incomes grew by 1.5% per annum to $623 per week Median household incomes grew by 1.7% per annum to $1,268 per week Median mortgage repayments decreased by 0.5% per annum to $1,625 per month Median rent payments increased by 2.4% to $275 per week. Table 1 Demographics, Capricorn Coast and Rockhampton Region, 2016 Indicator Average annual change Population 109, , % Median age % Median total personal income weekly ($/week) % Median total household income weekly ($/week) 1,167 1, % Median mortgage repayment monthly ($/month) 1,663 1, % Median rent weekly ($/week) % Source: ABS, Census of Population and Housing, 2016, General Community Profile - G02 and ABS, Census of Population and Housing, 2011, Basic Community Profile - B02. Regional employment data showed changes in the labour force between the 2011 and 2016 Census periods, including: The labour force grew by 0.8% per annum The unemployment rate increased by 3.6 percentage points to 8.8% The number of unemployed persons grew by 15.9% per annum to 4,799 persons The top 5 industries of employment in 2016 in the region were: o Health care and social assistance, 6,922 persons (15.2%) o Retail trade, 5,206 persons (11.5%) o Education and training, 5,014 (11.0%) o Accommodation and food services, 3,568 (7.8%) o Public administration and safety, 3,249 (7.1%) Table 2 Employment indicators, Capricorn Coast and Rockhampton Region, 2016 Employment (a) Indicator Average annual change or Percentage points difference Labour force 52,516 54, % Unemployed persons 2,677 4, % Unemployment rate PP Top 5 Industries of employment Health care and social assistance PP Retail trade PP Education and training PP Accommodation and food services PP Public administration and safety PP PP = Percentage points difference (a) By place of work Source: ABS, Census of Population and Housing, 2016, Working Population Profile W09 (place of work) and ABS, Census of Population and Housing, 2011, Working Population Profile W09 (place of work) 2 Census population represents an undercount of the Estimated Resident Population. 5

6 Housing Median sales prices for local houses increased between the March quarter 2017 and the June quarter 2017 for houses and units while vacant land prices decreased. The median house sale price for houses in the Livingstone and Rockhampton Local Government Areas (LGA) have experienced limited change, particularly in comparison to neighbouring LGAs. Figure 1 Median property prices, June quarter 2017 Source: Department of Natural Resources and Mines, Office of the Valuer-General, Property Sales, June Quarter 2017 Source: Department of Natural Resources and Mines, Office of the Valuer-General, Property Sales, June Quarter

7 Regional quarterly median rents have remained relatively steady between the September and December quarters 2017 for 2 bedroom units and 3 bedroom houses. Figure 2 Median rents, December quarter 2017 Source: Residential Tenancies Authority, Rental Bonds data (Queensland Government Statistician s Office derived), December quarter Source: Residential Tenancies Authority, Rental Bonds data (Queensland Government Statistician s Office derived), December quarter

8 No. of Residential dwelling approvals Capricorn Coast and Rockhampton Region Economic Snapshot March 2018 In the financial year, building approval activity in the region remained low, down by 68 from Similarly building approvals in surrounding LGAs were lower than the previous financial year, except for Rockhampton (R), which was higher. The Region is projected to need 66,860 private dwellings by 2036, from a base of 51,357 dwellings counted at the 2016 Census, or an average of 775 additional dwellings per year. Although the Region averaged 786 approvals per financial year between and , dwelling approval numbers have been trending downwards since the peak in Table 3 Residential dwelling approvals and building value, Location Dwelling approvals (no.) Residential building value ($m) Non-residential building value ($m) Capricorn Coast and Rockhampton Region Banana (S) Central Highlands (R) Gladstone (R) Livingstone (R) Mackay (R) Rockhampton (R) Source: ABS , Building Approvals, Australia, various editions. Figure 3 Residential dwelling approvals, Capricorn Coast and Rockhampton Region, to ,400 Capricorn Coast and Rockhampton Region 1,200 1, / / / / / / / / / / /17 Financial year Source: ABS , Building Approvals, Australia, various editions. Commercial real estate Herron Todd White predict continued market growth through 2018 with renewed confidence appearing to be the result of improved commodity prices and market conditions in nearby Bowen Basin and relatively strong agricultural commodity prices. With continued stabilisation of rentals and yields anticipated, and record low interest rates, Herron Todd White considers that there will be good levels of demand for well located, quality vacant office accommodation for owner-occupiers. Tourism The Capricorn Coast and Rockhampton Region is part of the Southern Great Barrier Reef (SGBR) Tourism Destination. The SGBR has welcomed increased numbers of visitors in the year ending September With expenditure of $1,070.8m, an increase of 2.4% on the previous year, domestic overnight visitation is vital to the region. For domestic visitors, growth in holiday travel was up by 13.5% to 672,000 visitors while business travel declined by 13.9% to 510,000 visitors. The intrastate market, accounting for approximately nine in ten (87%) visitors, has grown by 4.7% to 1.7m visitors with intra-regional overnight visitors the primary driver of this growth. 8

9 Although domestic visitor nights declined by 5.3%, primarily driven by business visitors staying fewer nights on average, the shorter average length of stay was mostly negated by visitor growth and a higher average spend per night (up by 8.1%). The region welcomed an increase of 18.3% in international visitors (to 157,000 visitors) with holidays being the main reason for travel. While visitor nights experienced strong growth (22.7%), the average length of stay decreased for holiday and business visitors which may have contributed to the decline in average spend per visitor (now $537 per visitor). In late March 2017, Cyclone Debbie and subsequent flooding interrupted tourism operations in the Capricorn Coast and Rockhampton Region with sensationalised media coverage not assisting regional promotion of the region s accessibility. Confidence in the tourism sector is strong, with a number of public infrastructure projects near completion. These include the Yeppoon Foreshore and Town Centre Revitalisation Project ($53 million), the Rockhampton Riverfront Revitalisation ($36 million), Mount Morgan town Centre revitalisation and the Mount Archer National Park Activation Plan. A $25 Million commitment by the State Government for water and power infrastructure for Great Keppel Island has resulted in renewed interest in private sector investment on the island. Private sector hotel investment opportunities in Yeppoon to complement the foreshore redevelopment are also being realised. Table 4 Southern Great Barrier Reef Regional Snapshot, Year ending September Visitors Holiday VFR 4 Business Expenditure Domestic overnight 1,997, , , ,000 $1,070.8m Annual % change yr trend % change International overnight 157, ,000 19,000 11,000 $92.7m Annual % change yr trend % change TOTAL 2,154, , , ,000 $1,163.5m Annual % change yr trend % change Source: TEQ, Southern Great Barrier Reef Snapshot Table 5 International Visitors to SGBR, Year ending September 2017 Visitors % change % change Length of % change Nights (year) (year) Stay (year) Holiday 120, ,078, VFR 19, , Business 11, , Total 7 157, ,711, Source: TEQ, Southern Great Barrier Reef Snapshot 3 International Snapshot for year ended December 2017 will be available mid-march and the Domestic Snapshot will be available at end March. 4 Visiting friends and relatives 5 Annual change refers to the percentage change between the year to the date covered by this report compared to the same period one year prior. 6 Trend change refers to the percentage change between the average of the three years to the date covered by this report, compared to the average for the same period one year prior. Trend change has been used to analyse changes for regions with small sample sizes. 7 This figure includes Other visitors. 9

10 Table 6 Top 5 International source markets Visitors % change (year) Nights % change (year) United Kingdom 28, , Germany 26, , New Zealand 14, , United States of America 13, ,000 n/p France 8, ,000 n/p Note: For technical reasons, some data may not be publishable (n/p), however the markets will still appear in order. Source: TEQ, Southern Great Barrier Reef Snapshot Transport and Main Roads Projects: Bruce Highway Rockhampton Northern Access Upgrade Cost $121m Project Details The Rockhampton Northern Access Upgrade is a $121m project to duplicate approximately 4.9km of the Bruce Highway between Rockhampton-Yeppoon Road intersection and Terranova Drive, north of Rockhampton, to cater for increasing traffic demand for adjacent industrial, commercial and residential developments and provide amenity, access and road safety outcomes for all road users. Will include provisions for cyclist and pedestrian traffic. Timing Project commencement 2018, completion 2019 Transport and Main Roads Projects: Capricorn Highway Rockhampton to Gracemere Duplication Cost Project Details $75m ($60m Australian Government and $15m Queensland Government) Duplicate the Capricorn Highway between the Yeppen Roundabout and O Shanesy Street (Gracemere). A 4-lane highway between Rockhampton and Gracemere will enhance the capacity of the Capricorn Highway and improve connections between these communities while also improving safety on this section of the regional road network. Traffic volumes on the Capricorn Highway between Rockhampton and Gracemere exceed 18,000 vehicles per day. Timing Completion 2020 Gladstone Area Water Board and SunWater Ltd: Lower Fitzroy River Infrastructure Project Cost Project Details Total investment: $495m (2014 dollars) $352m Rookwood Weir component The raising of Eden Bann Weir and construction of a new weir at Rookwood on the Fitzroy River, Central Queensland, for improved water availability and expansion of agriculture. This will include associated infrastructure, including turtle and fish 10

11 Employment EIS Status passage structures and augmentation of access roads and river crossings affected by the project. The weir will add 76,000 megalitres of water for agricultural production along the Fitzroy River, as well as an eventual back-up supply for Gladstone, Rockhampton and Livingstone Councils. The region has potential for irrigated vegetables, as well as cattle feedlots. For the project to be economically viable, water would need to be used to boost agricultural production substantially. The project would create 100 construction jobs and increased agricultural production would generate more direct jobs. Approved with conditions Queensland Government: Capricornia Correctional Centre Cost $200m Project Details CPB Contractors were selected by Queensland Corrective Services as the managing contractor for the expansion of the Capricornia Correctional Centre in Etna Creek. CPB Contractors will deliver new and upgraded facilities at the Capricornia Correctional Centre to support an increase in capacity and ongoing prison services, including a minimum of 164 additional residential cells in new buildings, 100 bunks in secure cells, a new residential officers station, and a site-wide electronic security upgrade. Employment 100 construction jobs and more than 70 direct ongoing jobs after commissioning. Additional indirect jobs will be generated in service provision. Timing Commenced 2017, completion 2020 Defence Projects: Remediation Project Cost >$125Million. Project No. 1. Shoalwater Bay Training Area Remediation Project. Timing Work packages to include civil, building upgrades and new construction, fencing, communications, environmental, airfield upgrade(s), amphibious landing facilities etc. Final details to be released once contract has been awarded. Defence Projects: ADF / Singapore Armed Forces Military Training Initiative Cost >$800Million Central (Shoalwater Bay MTA) Project No. 1. ADF/SAF MTI (Shoalwater Bay) Timing The Australia-Singapore Military Training Initiative is about investing, building and training. It will provide Australian troops with better training opportunities and strengthen Australia s relationship with Singapore, an important Defence partner. Around $2 billion will be invested in the Central and North Queensland regions over the life of the initiative. 11

12 Capricorn Enterprise has identified 8 Priority Initiatives that we believe are achievable through collaborative engagement with key stakeholders. These projects include key infrastructure works, strategic agriculture development that is achievable through the provision of new water storages, support for convention centre facilities, assisting in the growth of regional health services, elevating the status of the Rockhampton Airport, implementation of the Destination Tourism Plan and focussing on the digital economy across our region, whilst being the eastern gateway to Northern Australia and a key partner in the Northern Australia Alliance. Every two years the Priority Initiatives are reviewed by key stakeholders of Capricorn Enterprise, elected representatives and industry leaders. Invitations to participate in the review include: Local government representatives including the mayors, CEOs and senior executives of Central Highlands Regional Council, Gladstone regional Council, Livingstone Shire Council and Rockhampton Regional Council State government representatives including the electorates of Keppel, Mirani and Rockhampton Federal government representatives including the electorates of Capricornia and Flynn Industry leaders including Health, Tourism, Agriculture, Education, Resources and Transport Key stakeholders of Capricorn Enterprise including Board members. During the 2018 review of the Priority Initiatives, an agreed set of Initiatives will be determined and published so that Capricorn Enterprise can continue to collaborate with key stakeholders to achieve key infrastructure works and other major development in the region. In addition to its key Priority Initiatives, Capricorn Enterprise continues to support on-going projects such as major regional events and new major resort developments. 12

13 13

14 Disclaimer This profile was produced by Capricorn Enterprise. All data and information in this report are believed to be accurate and have come from sources believed to be reliable. However, Capricorn Enterprise does not guarantee or represent that all the data and information are accurate, up to date or complete, and disclaims liability for all claims, losses, damages or costs of whatever nature and howsoever occurring, arising as a result of relying on the data and information, regardless of the form of action, whether in contract, tort (including negligence), breach of statutory duty or otherwise. 14

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