Tourism Queensland Flood Economic Impact Report February

Transcription

1 Tourism Queensland Flood Economic Impact Report February

2 Table of Contents Background and Research Objectives 3 Methodology and Approach 4 Report Interpretations 5 Key Findings 9 Key Findings by Region 10 Section 1: Business Impacts and Closures 15 Section 2: Business Capacity and Cancellations 20 Section 3: Employment and Staffing Levels 29 Section 4: Revenue Impacts 36 Appendix 45 2

3 Background & Research Objectives Background With significant rainfall and flooding across regions of Queensland it is recognised that this has had a wide impact on the Queensland tourism industry. The tourism industry is crucial to the Queensland economy accounting for approximately 122,000 direct jobs and another 100,000 indirectly association jobs ( 5.7% of the state s workforce and 4.7% of Queensland s GSP). The majority of tourism operators (85%). The majority of tourism operators are small to medium sized businesses with employees of twenty or less and around half of operators are owner operators with no employees. In order to understand the scale of impact that the floods have had on operators and the perceptions of both the direct and indirect outcomes of floods on their business, Tourism Queensland (TQ) has commissioned Enhance Research to conduct a survey with operators across Queensland. The survey focussed specifically on the flood events that occurred in late December 2010 and January 2011 across various regions in the state. To assist in the facilitation of this research, TQ, the Queensland Government and QTIC have been preparing the industry for distribution of the survey through various forms of communication such as Tourism on Q publications and through Regional Tourism Organisation networks. This research took place between Tuesday 24 th and Sunday 30 th January 2011, prior to cyclone Yasi. Therefore, the results of this survey focus on the floods and not the weather events proceeding this. Research Objectives The research objectives are to measure the economic impact of the recent flood events on tourism operators and the Queensland tourism industry. Specifically the survey is designed to: Evaluate changes made to business as a direct result of the flood events; Evaluate current and forward planning required as a result of the influence of the floods on businesses; Evaluate operational considerations, including revenue, staffing and business access. 3

4 Methodology & Fieldwork An online survey was conducted with tourism operators from lists provided by TQ. The survey was conducted through the use of unique URL link to allow for identification of individual operators for follow up reminders. During the course of the fieldwork, reminder s were sent to respondents that had not completed surveys. Following this, CATI telephone reminder calls were made to respondents in agreed regions to encourage participation. Calls were made at Enhance Research in-house CATI facilities. 14 Tourist organisation regions were surveyed: Bundaberg and North Burnett region Brisbane region (includes Moreton Bay & Islands, Scenic Rim, Ipswich & country valleys) Capricorn region Fraser Coast Region Gladstone Area region Gold Coast & hinterland region Outback Queensland region Southern Downs and granite belt region Toowoomba, Golden West & South Burnett region Mackay region Sunshine Coast region (including Gympie & Cooloola) Tropical North Queensland region (including the Gulf) Townsville region Whitsundays region Fieldwork was conducted from Tuesday 25 th of January to Sunday 30 th January. reminders were sent out on Thursday evening. Follow-up reminder calls in regions with lower response rates were conducted from Friday afternoon, Saturday and Sunday. From the 1,248 phone calls made, 393 businesses were successfully contacted and reminded of the survey. Breakdown of completed reminder calls within each region: Bundaberg : 38, Capricorn: 98, Gladstone: 26, Mackay: 81, Outback QLD: 53, Townsville: 70, Whitsundays: 27 A total of s were sent with a final sample of 889 achieved. This survey therefore received a final response rate of 19% 4

5 Report Interpretation (1) The base note included below each table and chart throughout the report is the sample size, which indicates the number of respondents who have answered the relevant question. Where questions do not sum to 100%, this is due either to rounding or multiple responses. Significance testing has been conducted throughout this report for the following splits: Region Business Size Sector Business Closures In some instances, this sample has been further broken down resulting in small sample sizes. Here, care should be taken interpreting the results. Where an increase is significantly different it is indicated in the following way: indicates the data is significantly higher than data marked When comparing this sample size to the total number of Queensland tourism operators, we expect a Margin of Error of 3. The Margin of Error is a measurement of the accuracy of the results contained in this report. In other words, there is a 95% chance that the responses of the total number of tourism operators would fall somewhere between 3% more or 3% less than the responses of the sample. 5

6 Report Interpretation (2) 14 regions were surveyed and due to sample sizes some of these were consolidated (see figure 2). Throughout the report, the results have been analysed by these consolidated regions. Figure 1. Percentage of respondents by the 14 regions Figure 2. Percentage of respondents by consolidated regions Sunshine Coast 27% Sunshine Coast 27% Brisbane region Gold Coast & hinterland 12% 9% Tropics (TNQ & Townsville region) 12% Tropical North Queensland 9% Brisbane Region 12% Capricorn 7% Central QLD (Bundaberg & North Burnett, Capricorn 11% Fraser Coast Region Toowoomba & Golden West 7% 5% Southern Downs & Toowoomba 9% Whitsundays 5% Gold Coast & Hinterland 9% Outback Queensland 4% Mackay & Whitsundays 7% Southern Downs (and granite belt) 4% Fraser Coast 7% Bundaberg Townsville 3% 3% Outback QLD 4% Mackay 2% Gladstone Area 1% Q1. Which of the following region is your business/product located in? n=889 6

7 Report Interpretation (3) Accommodation is by far the highest represented sector followed by tours/attractions. However, the sectors are not necessarily mutually exclusive as a number of operators labelled themselves across one or more sectors. Figure 3. Business Sector Accommodation Tour/Attractions (including retail, restaurants & wineries) 34% 62% The report results are analysed by non-employing (owner/operators), small, medium and large businesses, the proportions for each of these are shown below. As expected the largest number of respondents are small businesses, followed by owner/operators and then medium sized businesses. Figure 4. Number of employees Transport 7% Business events/conventions/ conferences Inbound Tour Operator 6% 2% Small Other 11% Q4. Which of the following sector/s does your business operate in? MULTIPLE CHOICE n=889 Medium Large Q15.How many people does the business employ on a regular basis at this time of year? Please include all full-time, part-time and casual employees. SINGLE RESPONSE n=889 7

8 Report Interpretation (4) Table 1. Sector by Region Accommodation Transport Tour/Attractions (including retail, restaurants & wineries) Business events/ conventions/ conferences Inbound Tour Operator Central QLD (n=102) Brisbane region (n=108) Fraser Coast (n=63) Gold Coast + Hinterland (n=81) Outback QLD (n=38) Southern Downs + Toowoom ba (n=80) Mackay + Whitsun days (n=65) Sunshine Coast (n=240) Tropics (n=105) 64% 56% 67% 46% 53% 66% 65% 68% 61% 5% 8% 11% 12% 8% 3% 3% 6% 10% 36% 27% 38% 42% 39% 45% 37% 26% 38% Q4. Which of the following sector/s does your business operate in? MULTIPLE CHOICE n=889 5% 10% 6% 7% 8% 5% 6% 2% 9% 0% 5% 5% 7% 3% 0% 0% 0% 2% On average over half the proportion of customer base comes from Queensland, 26% from interstate and 17% international Figure 5. Average proportion of customer base Queensland Interstate International Q3. Under normal business operating conditions, please specify the approximate % of your customer base that are from Queensland, Interstate and International? n=889 8

9 Key Findings Overall, the majority of businesses surveyed were impacted, either directly or indirectly, to some extent during the flood period. Just over a quarter of businesses were closed during this period, over half of these for a few days to a week and a smaller number for longer. Reported closures come from a variety of regions, including Brisbane, Sunshine Coast, Southern Downs and Toowoomba and Central Queensland. The longest period of closure was recorded in the Southern Downs and Toowoomba, with 38% of operators closed for more than two weeks. The main reasons for closure were loss of access to business premises, transport logistics, accessing suppliers and employee access. Loss of access to premises was particularly an issue in Southern Downs and Toowoomba, Fraser Coast and Central Queensland. Transport/logistic issues, suppliers and staff tended to be more broadly felt across regions. For both December and January reported actual occupancy rates were lower than expected with January recording the highest proportion of flood related cancellations (28%). Businesses also expect a continued impact on cancellations during February, March and April (albeit at lower levels). The majority of businesses see public perceptions of the floods as playing a significant role in cancellations. Around half of businesses reduced their staff during December and January while others maintained their levels, hardly anyone employed more staff during this period. Staffing levels were expected to stay below average in February. Though it was anticipated that the situation would improve over the next two to three months, some operators remained cautious with 36% predicting lower than normal levels in April. Most businesses recorded a negative impact on their revenue in December and January. In January, operators reported the largest decrease of 53% on average for the month. Operators are also expecting some revenue decreases over February, March and April though with improvements expected over this time. Overall, most businesses do not see significant impediments to recovery. However, equity and local infrastructure issues are seen as the most relevant and this is also dependent on regions. For example infrastructure concerns are particularly high in Southern Downs and Toowoomba and then in Central Queensland and the Brisbane region. 9

10 Key Findings by Region Central Queensland Over one in ten (12%) of business closures were reported in Central Queensland during this period. The key issues related to the floods was loss of access to premises (63%), transport/logistic issues (36%), access to suppliers (35%) and ability of staff to attend work (35%). In December, one third (33%) of cancellations was attributed to the floods and this rose to 44% in January. Operators expect this to dramatically decrease in February with 18% of attributable cancellations, 10% in March and 11% in April. 59% of businesses reduced staff hours or shifts and only 25% made no changes to staff levels during December. This is similar to Southern Downs and Toowoomba, where again only 25% of operators made no changes during this time. In January more businesses (61%) reduced their staff hours/shifts and 17% said that they also laid off staff. Over half (55%) of businesses anticipate lower than normal staff levels in February, 45% in March and 30% in April. A very high number of businesses reported lower than normal revenue in December and January (83% and 89% respectively). For December the average decrease in revenue was 42% and in January this rose to 58%. Three quarters of operators expect lower revenues in February, this number falls to 64% in March and 47% of operators in April. Brisbane Brisbane had the highest reported closures during this period (22%) with 56% of businesses closed for a few days or up to a week and 12% over a month. Brisbane businesses also reported some of the highest adverse direct affects of the floods was the loss of access (43%) and the internet (29%) and the damage to premises (20%), employee inability to come to work (38%) and transport/logistic issues (36%). In December flood related cancellations was 16% on average, this rose to 36% in January. Predictions for the next three months see cancellations at 19% in February, 13% in March and 11% in April. During December, staffing levels were affected with 42% of businesses reducing staff hours/shifts and 18% not hiring the usual number of staff for this time of year, 39% of businesses made no change to their staff levels. In January businesses in Brisbane reported a worsening situation with 56% reducing their staff hours and 20% not hiring the usual numbers for the month. Over the next three months businesses are mixed in their expectations of staffing levels with 45% keeping levels about the same and 54% lower than normal in February and by April 34% expect levels to be lower and 65% remaining the same. 10

11 Key Findings by Region While in December 57% reported their actual revenue lower than normally expected, this figure rose to 82% for January. This month also saw the highest average percentage revenue decrease at 49%. While businesses expected their revenue to remain lower during February and March this falls to 42% of businesses in April. Fraser Coast The Fraser Coast region reported a less direct impact from the floods with 7% of closures from this region. Though, based on a small number of businesses (16), 6 were closed for 1 to 2 weeks and 5 for longer. Of businesses in the Fraser Coast who were directly affected, loss of access of premises is the highest (68%) while transport/logistics (37%) and accessing suppliers (33%) was also an issue, for 21% there were also issues with employee accessibility. In December flood related cancellations was attributed to 27% of all cancellations with this figure rising to 41% in January. Though, predicted cancellations are expected over the next three months, this fell significantly, with 17% for February, 11% for March and 11% for April. In the month of December, just under half (49%) of businesses reported a reduction in their staffing levels. This rose to 62% in January with 21% of businesses also saying that they had to lay off staff during this month. Over the next three months businesses in the Fraser Coast region expect their staffing levels to remain lower than normal and though month by month the situation improves, still 49% are anticipating lower numbers in April this year. A high proportion of Fraser Coast businesses (73%) reported lower than normal revenue for December with an average decrease of 39%. In January nearly all businesses (95%) experienced reduced revenue, on average a 52% fall. This situation is expected to gradually improve over February to April though businesses still predicting losses over this period. Gold Coast and the Hinterlands Most businesses on the Gold Coast and the Hinterlands were not directly affected by the floods with 7% of businesses closed from this region. Of these the majority were less than 3 days or up to a week. Though some businesses did lose access (20%), had transport/logistic issues (20%) and issues accessing suppliers (23%) a relatively high proportion (16%) were impacted through cancellations or loss of customers. 11

12 Key Findings by Region In December flood related cancellations stood at 15% this rose to 25% in January and is expected to improve gradually over February, March and April. As with other regions some businesses did reduce staff hours (52%) and not employee additional staff (22%) however there were also 40% of operators who made no change during this period. Businesses in the Gold Coast and the Hinterland expect staffing levels to remain lower than normal through February, March and April, in April 36% of operators still expect this to be the case. As with other regions January was seen as having the biggest impact on reported revenue with 79% of businesses reporting lower than normal revenue figures for this month. Over the next three months figures are expected to remain lower than normal albeit gradually improving over the months. Outback Queensland In Outback Queensland a small number of businesses (4%) were directly impacted by the floods, though closure and transport/logistics affected some businesses, the inability to access suppliers was also an issue (34%). Of the 9 businesses closed 4 were up to 3 days or a week and 5 for 2 to 4 weeks or more. In December 12% of cancellations were attributed to the floods and 10% in January. For the next three months this is expected to remain at around 6% to 8% of all cancellations. During December 37% of businesses reduced staff hours or shifts, while 45% made no changes to their staff levels or hours with a similar result for January with 34% reducing staff hours. Over February (34%), March (32%) and April (29%) expect lower than normal staff levels. In December 53% of businesses experienced lower than normal revenues and this rose to 58% in January. Compared to other regions Outback Queensland had a higher proportion of operators who reported normal revenues in January with 32% saying that revenue was about the same. Expectations for the next three months are that the situation will gradually improve, by April 45% of businesses expected lower revenues and a 29% average decrease compared to 36% in January. Southern Downs and Toowoomba Southern Downs and Toowoomba had the third highest reported closures (after Brisbane and the Sunshine Coast) with18% of closures reportedly from this region. Of those that closed 45% were up to 3 days or a week and 38% 2 to 4 weeks or over a month, one of the higher closure periods of the regions. Loss of access was very high with this being an issue for 75% of businesses, followed by transport logistics 44%, the inability to access suppliers 33% and employee issues (31%), 26% also reported damage to their premises. Only a very small number of operators (4%) said that their business had not been affected in some way. 12

13 Key Findings by Region In December 26% of cancellations was attributed to floods and this rose to 35% in January. Operators expect this to have some impact over the next few months with February flood related cancellations predicted to be 20%, March 17% and April 16%. In December the majority of businesses reduced staff hours or shifts (56%) with 19% having to lay off staff, the latter relatively high compared to other regions. Only 25% of operators made no changes to their staff levels or hours. Operators expect lower staffing levels to continue over February (55%), March (48%) and April (36%) with the situation gradually improving over these months. In December 84% of businesses reported lower than normal revenue for the month this rose to nearly everyone (95%) in January and a 59% on average revenue decrease. Expectations are that this will continue over the next three months with 76% predicting lower revenues for February and 46% in April. Mackay and Whitsundays Mackay and Whitsundays had the lowest number of only 3% of business closures from this region. The biggest issue for businesses was transport/logistics with 43% saying that this was an issue followed by 34% loss of access and 29% inability to access suppliers and cancellations (14%). In December 17% of cancellations were attributed to the floods and this rose to 23% of cancellations in January. Predictions for the next three months reflect less impact on cancellations than some other Queensland destinations with 10% in February, 9% in March and 8% in April. In December, 57% of operators reduced staff hours or shifts with a rise to 63% in January. While in February and March 57% of operators are expecting lower than normal staffing levels, this decreases to 38% for April. In December 71% of businesses reported lower than normal revenue this rose to 77% of businesses for January. Over February, March and April the situation while it is predicted to gradually improve in April 55% of operators are expecting lower than normal revenue for the month with a 26% average decrease for the month. 13

14 Key Findings by Region Sunshine Coast Operators in the Sunshine Coast reported a similar number of closures to Brisbane (21%). The majority were closed to up to 3 days (49%) to a week (22%). The main issues for operators on the Sunshine Coast was loss of access (38%), transport/logistics (23%), employees inability to come to work (20%), accessing suppliers (19%) and damage to premises (13%). In December cancellations due to floods was 13% and rose to 23% in January. Operators predict this to improve over February (11%), March (9%) and April (9%). 45% of businesses reduced staff hours or shifts during this period and 45% made no changes to staffing levels. Reduced staffing levels are seen to remain an issue for the next few months with 58% of operators expecting lower than normal levels in February, 49% in March and 38% in April. As with other regions, Sunshine Coast operators reported lower than normal levels of revenue in December and January (73% and 88% respectively). February is also expected to be hard hit with 81% of businesses predicting losses, 70% for March and 56% for April. The Tropics (TNQ and Townsville region) The Tropics (TNQ and Townsville region) had one of the lowest reported business closures with 5% from this region reporting having to close during this period. Of those that did close the majority (8 operators) were closed for up to 3 days to a week. The main flood related issues for operators was transport logistics (32%), loss of access (24%), suppliers (23%) and cancellations 15%. In December and January the percentage of cancellations due to floods was 15%. This is expected to fall over the next few months with 10% in February, 7% in March and April. The majority of businesses reported reducing staff hours or shifts in December (52%) while some were forced to lay off staff (10%) and this continued through January. Half of businesses expect lower than normal staffing levels in January this gradually improves to 47% in March and 31% for April. The majority of businesses also reported lower than normal revenue for the months of December (65%) and January (76%). The majority feel that this situation will continue into February and March while in April less than half (46%) feel that their revenue will be impacted. 14

15 Section 1: Business Impacts and Closures

16 Business Closures Just over one quarter (26%) of businesses surveyed were closed at some point as a result of the floods. The highest number of closures were in the Brisbane area, Sunshine Coast and Southern Downs and Toowoomba. Figure 6. Was your business closed at any stage as a result of the floods? Figure 7. Closed businesses by business size Yes, 26% Non-employing Small 20% 63% No, 74% Medium Large 14% 2% Base: All Respondents, n=889 Q6 During the two full months of December '10 to January '11, was your business closed at any stage as a result of the floods? SINGLE RESPONSE Figure 8. Closed businesses by region Base: Respondents who had closed their business due to the floods, n=230 Q15 How many people does the business employ on a regular basis at this time of year? SINGLE RESPONSE Figure 9. Closed businesses by sector Brisbane Region Sunshine Coast 22% 21% Tour/Attractions (including retail, restaurants & wineries) 59% Southern Downs & Toowoomba 18% Accommodation 34% Central QLD 12% Transport 10% Fraser Coast GC Hinterland 7% 7% Business events/conventions/ conferences 7% TNQ + Townsville Outback QLD 5% 4% Inbound Tour Operator 3% Mackay + Whitsundays 3% Other 17% Base: Respondents who had closed their business due to the floods, n=230 Q1 Which of the following region is your business/product located in? SINGLE RESPONSE Base: Respondents who had closed their business due to the floods, n=230 Q4.Which of the following sector/s does your business operate in? MULTIPLE RESPONSE 16

17 Length of Business Closures Figure 10. Length of business closure Sunshine Coast 49% Brisbane 24% Southern Downs & Toowoomba 24% Southern Downs & Toowoomba 26% Sunshine Coast 8% The majority of businesses were closed for up to 3 days and then up to a week. The businesses closed from between 2 to 4 weeks tended to be situated in the Southern Downs and Toowoomba region. Non-employing businesses appeared to be closed for a longer period of time, while the majority (78%) of medium sized tourism operators were closed for a maximum of one week. Figure 11. Length of business closure by business size Q7 Approximately how many days was your business closed for (including weekends) due to the floods? SINGLE RESPONSE Base: Respondents who had closed their business due to the floods, n=230 Significantly higher than 17

18 Flood Related Issues Across all businesses, loss of access to premises was the highest reported issue followed by transport, supplier access and employee availability. Though medium businesses seem to be more affected by the logistic and supplier issues, small businesses were still impacted. Figure Flood issues Medium 49% Small 30% Non-employing 24% Medium 49% Small 25% Non-employing 14% Medium 42% Small 20% Medium 17% Non-employing 7% Medium 13% Small 6% Non-employing 3% Non-employing 6% Small 6% Medium 1% Non-employing 6% Small 2% Q8 Which of the following issues directly affected your business as a result of the recent Queensland floods? MULTIPLE CHOICE Base: All Respondents, n=889 Significantly higher than 18

19 Flood Related Issues by Region Overall, flood related issues were higher in Brisbane, Southern Downs and Toowoomba and Central Queensland. Table 2. Flood issues by region Loss of access to business premises Transport/logistic issues Inability to access suppliers Employees' inability to come to work Loss of access to the Internet Damage to business premises Cancellations/Loss of customers Damage to equipment Lack of customers/tourists Central QLD (n=102) Brisbane region (n=108) Fraser Coast (n=63) Gold Coast + Hinterland (n=81) Outback QLD (n=38) Southern Downs + Toowoomba (n=80) Q8 Which of the following issues directly affected your business as a result of the recent Queensland floods? MULTIPLE RESPONSE Base: All Respondents, n=889 Please note that interstate offices not included in table due to very small sample size (n=7) Mackay + Whitsun days (n=65) Sunshin e Coast (n=240) Tropics (n=105) 63% 43% 68% 20% 45% 75% 34% 38% 24% 36% 36% 37% 20% 32% 44% 43% 23% 32% 35% 30% 33% 23% 34% 33% 29% 19% 23% 26% 38% 21% 19% 11% 31% 11% 20% 5% 11% 29% 5% 9% 13% 18% 6% 13% 7% 10% 20% 10% 2% 11% 26% 3% 13% 2% 7% 12% 11% 16% 3% 3% 14% 10% 15% 7% 15% 3% 2% 5% 10% 3% 6% 2% 2% 6% 3% 4% 0% 5% 3% 8% 7% Damage to stocks 2% 11% 2% 1% 5% 6% 0% 2% 1% Loss of power/phone Customers unable to get to us/travel 0% 11% 2% 0% 0% 8% 0% 3% 0% 3% 0% 5% 2% 3% 4% 8% 4% 5% Significantly higher than 19

20 Section 2: Capacity and Cancellations

21 April March February January December Occupancy Rates In December and January the actual occupancy rate versus expected was low with January having the highest proportion of cancellations attributed to floods (28%). At the same time businesses are expecting a proportion of flood related cancellations over the next three months (February to April). Figure 13. Expected and actual occupancy rates Expected Actual 14% 25% 10% 0-24% 25-49% 50-74% % 31% 46% 23% 33% 20% Average proportion of cancellations attributed to the floods 18% Expected Actual 14% 12% 37% 26% 25% 48% 26% 12% 28% Expected Anticipated 21% 50% 23% 34% 26% 16% 22% 7% 14% Expected Anticipated 18% 46% 20% 37% 25% 19% 25% 9% 11% Expected 16% 11% 36% 36% Anticipated 40% 20% 25% 15% 10% Q13 Column A: In normal business operating conditions, please indicate the expected occupancy rate/capacity in percentage terms for each month from December 2010 to April Column B: As a result of the flooding, please indicate your actual and anticipated forward occupancy rates/capacity in percentage terms for December 2010 through to April Column C: Please indicate the percentage of any loss of occupancy rate/capacity attributable to the cancellation of pre-existing bookings, per month from December 2010 to April Base: All Respondents, n=889 21

22 Occupancy Rates By Region Figures 14& 15: Average expected and actual occupancy rate by region These diagrams illustrate the average expected and actual occupancy rates by region for December and January. Expected occupancy rate is shown initially, with the actual/anticipated occupancy rate shown in brackets. (For example for December in the Tropics, businesses expected on average 54% occupancy, while their actual occupancy was 41% for the month). January December Tropics, 54% (41%) Mackay & Whitsundays, 70% (56%) Tropics, 47% (32%) Mackay & Whitsundays, 69% (47%) Outback Queensland, 24% (14%) Central Queensland 63% (38%) Southern Downs & Toowoomba, 55% (34%) Fraser Coast, 69% (46%) Sunshine Coast, 66% (52%) Brisbane region, 69% (55%) Gold Coast & Hinterland, 70% (55%) Outback Queensland, 22% (19%) Central Queensland 64% (28%) Southern Downs & Toowoomba, 55% (22%) Fraser Coast, 68% (30%) Sunshine Coast, 70% (46%) Brisbane region, 66% (36%) Gold Coast & Hinterland, 74% (51%) Q13 Column A: In normal business operating conditions, please indicate the expected occupancy rate/capacity in percentage terms for each month from December 2010 to April Column B: As a result of the flooding, please indicate your actual and anticipated forward occupancy rates/capacity in percentage terms for December 2010 through to April Base: All Respondents, n=889 22

23 Occupancy Rates By Region Figures 16, 17 & 18: Average expected and anticipated occupancy rate by region Outback Queensland, 23% (18%) Tropics, 40% (24%) Central Queensland 46% (25%) Southern Downs & Toowoomba, 49% (27%) February Mackay &Whitsundays, 45% (25%) Fraser Coast, 51% (24%) Sunshine Coast, 47% (27%) Brisbane region, 59% (37%) Gold Coast & Hinterland, 58% (41%) These diagrams illustrate the average expected and actual occupancy rates by region for December and January. Expected occupancy rate is shown initially, with the actual/anticipated occupancy rate shown in brackets. (For example for April in Outback QLD, businesses expected on average 40% occupancy, while their anticipated occupancy is 32% for the month). March April Tropics, 44% (27%) Mackay & Whitsundays, 48% (24%) Tropics, 53% (34%) Mackay & Whitsundays, 58% (29%) Outback Queensland, 31% (24%) Central Queensland 49% (30%) Southern Downs & Toowoomba, 56% (31%) Fraser Coast,51% (26%) Sunshine Coast, 50% (29%) Brisbane region, 63% (41%) Outback Queensland, 40% (32%) Central Queensland 59% (39%) Southern Downs & Toowoomba, 64% (39%) Fraser Coast,59% (31%) Sunshine Coast, 58% (35%) Brisbane region, 64% (43%) Gold Coast & Gold Coast & Hinterland, 56% (40%) Hinterland, 63% (43%) Q13 Column A: In normal business operating conditions, please indicate the expected occupancy rate/capacity in percentage terms for each month from December 2010 to April Column B: As a result of the flooding, please indicate your actual and anticipated forward occupancy rates/capacity in percentage terms for December 2010 through to April Base: All Respondents, n=889 23

24 Average Proportion of Cancellations Attributed to Floods by Region Figure 19 & 20. Average proportion of cancellations attributed to the floods within each region These diagrams illustrate the reported percentage of flood related cancellations by region for December and January. (For example for December in the Sunshine Coast businesses attributed 13% of their cancellations to the floods.) January December Tropics, 15% Mackay & Whitsundays, 17% Outback Queensland, 12% Central Queensland 33% Fraser Coast, 27% Sunshine Coast, 13% Tropics, 15% Mackay & Whitsundays, 23% Southern Downs & Toowoomba, 26% Brisbane region, 16% Gold Coast & Hinterland, 15% Outback Queensland, 10% Central Queensland 44% Southern Downs & Toowoomba,35% Fraser Coast, 41% Sunshine Coast, 23% Brisbane region, 36% Gold Coast & Hinterland, 25% In January, a number of regions recorded cancellations attributed to floods, including those not directly affected. Q13 Column C: Please indicate the percentage of any loss of occupancy rate/capacity attributable to the cancellation of pre-existing bookings, per month from December 2010 to April Base: All Respondents, n=889 Significantly higher than 24

25 Average Proportion of Cancellations Attributed to Floods by Region Figure 21, 22 & 23 Average proportion of cancellations attributed to the floods within each region Tropics, 10% Mackay &Whitsundays, 10% February These diagrams illustrate the reported percentage of flood related cancellations by region for February, March and April. (For example for February in the Sunshine Coast businesses attribute 11% of their cancellations to the floods.) Outback Queensland, 6% Central Queensland 18% Southern Downs & Toowoomba, 20% Fraser Coast, 17% Sunshine Coast, 11% Brisbane region, 19 % Gold Coast & Hinterland, 14% March April Tropics, 7% Mackay & Whitsundays, 9% Tropics, 7% Mackay & Whitsundays, 8% Outback Queensland, 7% Central Queensland 10% Southern Downs & Toowoomba, 17% Fraser Coast, 11% Sunshine Coast, 9% Brisbane region, 13% Gold Coast & Hinterland, 11% Outback Queensland, 8% Central Queensland 11% Southern Downs & Toowoomba, 16% Fraser Coast, 11% Sunshine Coast, 9% Brisbane region, 11% Gold Coast & Hinterland, 9% Q13 Column C: Please indicate the percentage of any loss of occupancy rate/capacity attributable to the cancellation of pre-existing bookings, per month from December 2010 to April Base: All Respondents, n=889 25

26 Cancellations Due to Perceptions of Restricted Access Public perceptions have been seen as a large contributor to cancellations with 39% of businesses strongly agreeing that this was a major contributor (rating of 10) and 71% perceiving this to be somewhat the case (rating of 6 to 10). Figure 24. How much of an issue have cancellations due to perceptions of restricted access been? 0 Not a problem at all Significant problem % Somewhat of a problem (rating 6 or more out of 10) 8% 3% 6% 4% 6% 5% 9% 12% 6% 39% 71% Q14 How much has your business been impacted by cancellations due to perceptions of restricted access (eg media reports of 75% of state under water)? Base: All Respondents, n=889. Figure 25. How much of an issue have cancellations due to perceptions of restricted access been? Regional split Fraser Coast Central Queensland Southern Downs & Toowoomba Sunshine Coast Brisbane region Mackay & Whitsundays Tropics Gold Coast & Hinterland Outback Queensland % Somewhat of a problem (rating 6 or more out of 10) Q14 How much has your business been impacted by cancellations due to perceptions of restricted access? Base: All Respondents, n=

27 Cancellations Due to Perceptions of Restricted Access by Sector and Business Size Figure 26. How much of an issue have cancellations due to perceptions of restricted access been? Sector split Transport % Somewhat of a problem (rating 6 or more out of 10) Public perceptions as a contributor is seen as an issues across sectors and businesses. Tour/Attractions Accommodation Business Events Figure 27. How much of an issue have cancellations due to perceptions of restricted access been? Business size split % Somewhat of a problem (rating 6 or more out of 10) Q14 How much has your business been impacted by cancellations due to perceptions of restricted access? Base: All Respondents, n=889. Small *Large Medium Non-employing Q14 How much has your business been impacted by cancellations due to perceptions of restricted access? Base: All Respondents, n=889. *Caution small sample size 27

28 Impact of Flood Perceptions on Businesses verbatim comments Whilst the actual floods and road closures had little impact, the dramatisation of weather and flood reports by the media resulted in huge damage to business and the tourism industry in SE QLD Loss of access (Bruce Hwy) and negative publicity had a severe effect on our business Media reporting 80% of QLD is a disaster zone has caused cancellations to Nth QLD, even though flooding was not an issue in this region. Visitors are looking at alternative (flood free) destinations The coverage of the damage caused by the floods was very newsworthy, however it appeared to be a blanket approach and all regions in South-east Queensland were portrayed as being under water which was not the case. The government needs to be stepping in and start positively promoting the various tourism locations to ensure that we are able to bounce back The perception that Tropical North Queensland is flood affected is not only present in Australia, but internationally as well The biggest problem has been one of perception that all of QLD was under flood. On the Sunshine Coast the area and our business was not affected at all Perception of people is that our roads are cut, that attractions on the Mountain are closed, that we are not open for business despite advertising Perception from Overseas reports is people are in danger coming to QLD so overseas groups are cancelling Inaccurate or blanket media statements and assumptions was damaging and unnecessary The Media spread the 'misinformation' about Queensland being 75% under water like a virus. No attempt was made by the media to identify the 'business as usual' areas for tourism Q23. Do you have any further comments on the recent floods and the impact it has had on the business/industry? Base: All respondents (n=889) 28

29 Section 3: Employment and Staffing Levels

30 Flood Affects on Staffing Levels Around half of businesses reduced staff levels during December and January while some operators maintained their current level of staff during this period. Figure 28. Affect on staffing levels for December Reduced the hours/shifts of the staff 49% No change in staff levels or hours 37% Did not hire the usual number of staff for this time of year 17% Had to lay off staff Increased staff to cater for the extra demand 2% 9% Figure 29. Affect on staffing levels for January Other 2% Q16 For the month of December 2010, how would you say that staffing levels at your business have been affected, compared to normal business operating conditions? MULTIPLE RESPONSE Base: All Respondents, n=889 Q17 For the month of January 2011, how would you say that staffing levels at your business have been affected, compared to normal business operating conditions...? MULTIPLE RESPONSE Base: All Respondents, n=889 30

31 Flood Affects on Staffing Levels Differences across business closures and regions Reduction in staff levels was seen across a range of regions and higher amongst businesses that closed at some point during this period. Almost a quarter (24%) of businesses that closed during the floods did not hire the usual number of staff this year. In Southern Downs and Toowoomba close to two in ten (19%) reported laying off staff. Almost four in ten (37%) businesses made no changes to their staff levels during this period. Figure 30. Affect on staffing levels December Central QLD 59% Sunshine Coast 45%, Brisbane 43%, Outback QLD 37% Business as usual 41% Business Closed 26% Sunshine Coast 43%, Brisbane 39% Central QLD 25%, Southern Downs + Toowoomba 25% Business Closed 24% Business as usual 14% Gold Coast 22% Tropics 11% Business Closed 17% Business as usual 7% Southern Downs + Toowoomba 19% Brisbane 6%, Sunshine Coast 5% Q16 For the month of December 2010, how would you say that staffing levels at your business have been affected, compared to normal business operating conditions? MULTIPLE RESPONSE Base: All Respondents, n=889 Significantly higher than 31

32 Flood Affects on Staffing Levels Differences across business closures and regions In January there was a similar pattern in staff levels across various regions. Over half (53%) of all businesses reduced the hours/shifts of staff in January. The Southern Downs and Toowoomba region again reported higher levels of laying off staff (24%) along with those tourism operators in the Fraser Coast region (21%). Figure 31. Affect on staffing levels January Business as usual 34% Business Closed 19% Mackay + Whitsundays 63%, Fraser Coast 62%, Central QLD 61% Sunshine Coast 48%, Outback QLD 34% Outback QLD 45%, Sunshine Coast 36%, Tropics 36% Central QLD 24%, Brisbane 24%, Southern Downs + Toowoomba 23%, Fraser Coast 19% Business Closed 28% Business as usual 17% Gold Coast 27% Tropics 15%, Outback QLD 11% Business Closed 22% Business as usual 10% Southern Downs + Toowoomba 24%, Fraser Coast 21% Sunshine Coast 10%, Tropics 10%, Outback QLD 5% Q17 For the month of January 2011, how would you say that staffing levels at your business have been affected, compared to normal business operating conditions...? MULTIPLE RESPONSE Base: All Respondents, n=889 Significantly higher than 32

33 Expected Staffing Levels Figure 32, 33 & 34. Expected staffing levels February March Business as usual 49% Business Closed 37% Business Closed 62% Business as usual 51% For February, over half of businesses expected lower than normal staffing levels while by April there is an expectation that the staffing situation will be closer to normal. Again lower staffing expectations tends to be higher amongst those businesses that closed during the flood period. Business as usual 56% Business Closed 46% Business Closed 53% Business as usual 44% April Q18 Is the expected staffing levels for your business likely to be higher, lower or the same as normal business conditions for these months? SINGLE RESPONSE Base: All Respondents, n=889 Significantly higher than 33

34 Expected Lower than Normal Staffing Levels by Regions Figure 35, 36 & 37. Lower than normal staffing levels February Outback Queensland, 34% Tropics, 50% Mackay & Whitsundays, 57% Central Queensland 55% Fraser Coast, 65% Sunshine Coast, 58% These diagrams show expected lower than normal staffing levels by regions for February, March and April. (For example the Mackay + Whitsundays region 57% of operators expect lower than normal staffing levels). Southern Downs & Toowoomba, 55% Brisbane region, 52 % Gold Coast & Hinterland, 49% March April Tropics, 47% Mackay & Whitsundays, 57% Tropics, 31% Mackay & Whitsundays, 38% Outback Queensland, 32% Central Queensland 45% Southern Downs & Toowoomba, 48% Fraser Coast, 57% Sunshine Coast, 49% Brisbane region, 43% Gold Coast & Hinterland, 40% Outback Queensland, 29% Central Queensland 30% Southern Downs & Toowoomba, 36% Fraser Coast, 49% Sunshine Coast, 38% Brisbane region, 34% Gold Coast & Hinterland, 36% Q18 Is the expected staffing levels for your business likely to be higher, lower or the same as normal business conditions for these months? Base: All Respondents who said lower than normal (February n=479) (March n=414) (April n=317) Significantly higher than 34

35 Expected and Actual Affects on Staffing Levels by Sector Table three shows the proportion of businesses in each sector that expect lower than normal staffing levels from February to April. The affects on staffing levels in each sector for December and January is examined in table four. Staffing changes appear highest for tour/attraction operators. Table 3. Expected lower than normal staffing levels for February, March and April by sector Accommodation (n=550) Transport (n=63) Tour/ Attractions (n=304) Business events/ Conferences (n=51) February 53% 54% 68% 63% March 45% 46% 61% 41% April 37% 29% 45% 25% Q18 Is the expected staffing levels for your business likely to be higher, lower or the same as normal business conditions for these months? Base: All Respondents, n=889 Table 4. Affect on staffing levels for December and January by sector Accommodation (n=550) Transport (n=63) Tour/ Attractions (n=304) Business events/ Conferences (n=51) Reduced the hours/shifts of the staff No change in staff levels or hours Did not hire the usual number of staff for this time of year Dec Jan Dec Jan Dec Jan Dec Jan 49% 55% 52% 57% 61% 62% 57% 67% 41% 33% 29% 21% 23% 17% 27% 20% 12% 14% 30% 30% 28% 33% 27% 39% Had to lay off staff 7% 11% 10% 14% 17% 21% 8% 18% Increased staff to cater for the extra demand 2% 1% 2% 5% 2% 2% 8% 2% Other 2% 2% 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% 6% NA - No staff/owner/operator 2% 1% 0% 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% Q16/ Q17 For the month of December 2010/ January 2011, how would you say that staffing levels at your business have been affected, compared to normal business operating conditions? MULTIPLE RESPONSE Base: All Respondents, n=889 35

36 Section 4: Revenue Impacts

37 Affect on Revenue The majority of businesses recorded an impact on their revenue, with 70% reporting lower than normal revenues in December with an average of 32% decrease for this month. For January businesses reported the highest impact with a 53% on average decrease in their revenues. Figure 38 & 39. Affect on revenue December Average % decrease for December: 32% January Higher than normal 4% About the same 12% Lower than normal 84% Average % decrease for January: 53% Q19.Based on current projections, was the actual revenue for your business for the December 2010 to January 2011 period higher or lower than your expected December to January revenue? SINGLE RESPONSE Base: All Respondents, n=889 Q20 What is the approximate percentage change in revenue between your expected vs actual revenue for the month in approximate percentage terms? Base: Respondents that believed their revenue is lower than normal (December n=625) (January n=749) 37

38 Affect on Revenue Over February, March and April businesses expect the situation to improve though still with negative impacts to revenue over the next three months. Figure 40, 41 & 42. Affect on revenue February March Average % decrease for February: 35% April Average % decrease for March: 32% Average % decrease for April: 31% Q21 In comparison with normal business conditions, what is your expected revenue for your business for February through to April? SINGLE RESPONSE Base: All Respondents, n=889 Q22. What is the expected net revenue change in approximate percentage terms? Base: Respondents that believed their revenue is lower than normal (February n=654) (March n=575 (April n=447) 38

39 Affect on Revenue by Region Figures 43 & 44: Proportion of businesses who report lower than normal revenue. By region These diagrams illustrate the proportion of businesses by region that reported lower than normal revenue for December and January. Next to these proportions, in brackets, is the average decrease in revenue for these businesses. (For example for December in the Tropics, 65% businesses reported lower than normal revenue, and on average their revenue had decreased by 28%) January December Tropics, 65% (-28%) Mackay & Whitsundays, 71% (-27%) Outback Queensland, 53% (-31%) Central Queensland 83% (-42%) Fraser Coast, 73% (-39%) Sunshine Coast, 73% Tropics, 76% (-30%) Mackay & Whitsundays, 77% (-33%) Southern Downs & Toowoomba, 84% (-44%) Brisbane region, 57% (-30%) Gold Coast & Hinterland, 63% (-32%) Outback Queensland, 58% (-36%) Central Queensland 89% (-58%) Southern Downs & Toowoomba,95% (-59%) Fraser Coast, 95% (-52%) Sunshine Coast, 88% (-36%) Brisbane region, 82% (-49%) Significantly higher than Gold Coast & Hinterland, 79% (-36%) Businesses with reported reductions in revenue were highest in Southern Downs and Toowoomba, Central Queensland, Fraser Coast and Sunshine Coast. *Please note that significant testing has only been conducted for those businesses which have reported lower than normal revenue, and not for the average decreases in revenue. Q19.Based on current projections, was the actual revenue for your business for the December 2010 to January 2011 period higher or lower than your expected December to January revenue? SINGLE RESPONSE Base: All Respondents, n=889 Q20 What is the approximate percentage change in revenue between your expected vs actual revenue for the month in approximate percentage terms? Base: Respondents that believed their revenue is lower than normal (December n=625) (January n=749) 39

40 Affect on Revenue by Region Figures 45 & 46: Proportion of businesses who report lower than normal revenue. By region Outback Queensland, 58% (-29%) Tropics, 75% (-41%) Central Queensland 75% (-41%) Southern Downs & Toowoomba, 73% (-47%) February Mackay &Whitsundays, 69% (-30%) Fraser Coast, 84% (-40%) Sunshine Coast, 81% (-32%) Brisbane region, 69% (-38%) Gold Coast & Hinterland, 67% (-33%) These diagrams illustrate the proportion of businesses by region that expect lower than normal revenue for February, March and April. Next to these proportions, in brackets, is the average decrease in revenue for these businesses. (For example for February in the Tropics, 75% businesses reported lower than normal revenue, and on average their revenue had decreased by 41%) *Please note that significant testing has only been conducted for those businesses which have reported lower than normal revenue, and not for the average decreases in revenue. Significantly higher than March April Tropics, 64% (-37%) Mackay & Whitsundays, 68% (-30%) Tropics, 46% (-21%) Mackay & Whitsundays, 55% (-26%) Outback Queensland, 53% (-26%) Central Queensland 64% (-37%) Southern Downs & Toowoomba, 66% (-39%) Fraser Coast, 79% (-35%) Sunshine Coast, 70% (-30%) Brisbane region, 52% (-41%) Gold Coast & Hinterland, 59% (-33%) Outback Queensland, 45% (-29%) Central Queensland 47% (-36%) Southern Downs & Toowoomba, 46% (-40%) Fraser Coast,65% (-34%) Sunshine Coast, 56% (-28%) Brisbane region, 42% (-39%) Gold Coast & Hinterland, 46% (-33%) Q21 In comparison with normal business conditions, what is your expected revenue for your business for February through to April? SINGLE RESPONSE Base: All Respondents, n=889 Q22 what is your expected revenue for your business for February through to April? Base: Respondents that believed their revenue is lower than normal (February n=654) (March n=575 (April n=447) 40

41 Affect on Revenue by Business Size The following table illustrates the proportion of tourism operators, by size, who have reported or expect lower than normal revenue between December 2010 and April The second column represents the average decrease in revenue for the month. For example, in December 63% of non-employing operators recorded lower than normal revenue with a 42% decrease on average. For December and January, there were more smaller sized businesses stating that their revenue was lower than normal compared to non-employing businesses. Table 5. Proportion of businesses who report lower than normal revenue and average percentage decrease in revenue by business size Non- employing Small Medium *Large % reported lower than normal Average % decrease % reported lower than normal Average % decrease % reported lower than normal Average % decrease % reported lower than normal Average % decrease December January February March April 63% - 42% 73% - 33% 66% - 23% 57% - 14% 76% - 53% 85% - 44% 86% - 34% 91% - 19% 67% - 40% 76% - 36% 71% - 29% 70% - 14% 59% - 38% 67% --33% 61% - 26% 52% - 13% 52% - 36% 51% - 32% 48% - 25% 39% - 12% Q19 Was the actual revenue for your business for the period higher or lower than your expected revenue? SINGLE RESPONSE Base: All Respondents, n=889 Q20 What is the approximate percentage change in revenue between your expected vs actual revenue for the month in approximate percentage terms? Base: Respondents that believed their revenue is lower than normal (December n=625) (January n=749) Q21 Was the actual revenue for your business for the period higher or lower than your expected revenue? SINGLE RESPONSE Base: All Respondents, n=889 Q22 what is your expected revenue for your business for February through to April? Base: Respondents that believed their revenue is lower than normal (February n=654) (March n=575 (April n=447) Significantly higher than 41

42 Flood Related Issues Facing Businesses During Recovery Overall, the flooding is not seen as having a more long term impact on businesses, probably the highest is equity and local infrastructure issues. However, this is also somewhat dependent on regions. Figure 47: Significance of flood related issues on businesses Impact on equity (market response) 0 Not a problem at all Significant problem 49% 3% 6% 3% 3% 7% 5% 18% % Somewhat of a problem (rating 6 or more out of 10) 36% Local infrastructure 48% 6% 5% 3%4% 6% 3% 3% 4% 4% 14% 28% Cash flow constraint 62% 5% 3% 5% 3% 4% 10% 21% Impact on confidence to invest in a floodimpacted business 65% 5% 5% 3% 4% 3% 8% 19% Uncertainty in Insurance claim processing and payout 81% 4% 3% 5% 9% Q10. Recovery from the floods may be impeded by various issues. Thinking about your business, can you please rate each of the issues presented on the following list, on a scale from 0 to 10 where 0 means that is not a problem at all and 10 means that it is a significant problem for your business to recover from the floods. Base: All Respondents, n=889 42

43 Flood Related Issues Facing Businesses During Recovery Figure 48: Significance of flood related issues on businesses % Somewhat of a problem 0 Not a problem at all Significant problem (rating 6 or more out of 10) Access to loan financing 78% 4% 4% 4% 9% Inadequate insurance to meet full business recovery costs 82% 4% 4% 8% Difficulties in recruiting/ retaining appropriately skilled staff as a result of the floods 78% 8% 3% 3% 8% Waste removal 79% 7% 3% 6% Q10. Recovery from the floods may be impeded by various issues. Thinking about your business, can you please rate each of the issues presented on the following list, on a scale from 0 to 10 where 0 means that is not a problem at all and 10 means that it is a significant problem for your business to recover from the floods. Base: All Respondents, n=889 43

44 Flood Related Issues Facing Businesses By Region Some regions reported a higher impact on issues particularly in the areas of equity and infrastructure. Southern Downs and Toowoomba, and Brisbane are significantly more likely to be concerned about local infrastructure and insurance. Table 6. Significance of flood relates issues ( average rating out of 10) by region. Impact on equity (market response) Local infrastructure Cash flow constraint Central QLD (n=102) Brisbane region (n=108) Fraser Coast (n=63) Gold Coast + Hinterland (n=81) Outback QLD (n=38) Southern Downs + Toowoomba (n=80) Mackay + Whitsun days (n=65) Sunshine Coast (n=240) Tropics (n=105) Impact on confidence to invest in a flood-impacted business Uncertainty in Insurance claim processing & payout Access to loan financing Inadequate insurance Difficulties in recruiting & retaining staff as a result of the floods Waste removal Q10. Recovery from the floods may be impeded by various issues. Thinking about your business, can you please rate each of the issues presented on the following list, on a scale from 0 to 10 where 0 means that is not a problem at all and 10 means that it is a significant problem for your business to recover from the floods. Base: All Respondents, n=889 Please note that interstate offices not included in table due to very small sample size (n=7) Significantly higher than 44

45 Appendix 45

46 Type of Business (1) Figure 49: Daily number of rooms/sites available for those in the accommodation sector. Average room/sites: 75 Q11. How many rooms/sites are available on a daily basis for hire on your business premise? SINGLE RESPONSE Base: All respondents in Accommodation sector n=550 Figure 50: Daily capacity for those not in the accommodation sector Average capacity: 538 Q12. In normal business operating conditions, what is your usual maximum daily capacity? SINGLE RESPONSE Base: All respondents not in Accommodation sector n=267 46

47 Type of Business (2) Figure 51: Type of accommodation business Q5 Would you best describe your accommodation business as a...? SINGLE RESPONSE Base: All respondents in Accommodation sector n=550 47

48 Type of Business (3) Figure 52: Organisation members Q2. Are you a member of any of the following organisation/s? MULTIPLE RESPONSE Base: All Respondents, n=889 Figure 53: Position within business Q24. In terms of the business, are you the...? SINGLE RESPONSE Base: All Respondents, n=889 48