The Face (and Wallet) Behind the Suitcase: Assessing the Customer Base of Tourist Locations

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Cory Woods
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2 The Face (and Wallet) Behind the Suitcase: Assessing the Customer Base of Tourist Locations Brian J. Schumacher ICSC Research Connections Conference Program Planning Committee Senior Manager, Real Estate Research Chico s FAS, Inc. Fort Myers, FL Laura Schewel Founder and Chief Executive Officer, StreetLight Data Robert Welch Alameda, CA President Synergos Technologies, Inc. Austin, TX Holly Yonosko Director, Retail Consulting American Express New York, NY

3 The Face (and Wallet) Behind the Suitcase: Assessing the Customer Base of Tourist Markets

2013 This isn t only an American phenomenon. In 2013 alone, 69.6 million international visitors came to the U.S.

4 Everyone loves a vacation... Americans are on the move throughout the year: o Memorial Day: 36.1 million o July 4th: 41.0 million o Labor Day: 34.1 million o Thanksgiving: 43.4 million o Winter holidays: 94.5 million * Those traveling 50+ miles; source: AAA, Nov This isn t only an American phenomenon. In 2013 alone, 69.6 million international visitors came to the U.S.** These are big numbers and they re growing: o The domestic figures above are each y-o-y increases of between 1.5% -2%* o The International visitor count is projected to increase to 81 million by 2016** ** source: US Travel Association

5 ... and they love to shop while on vacation. According to the U.S. Travel Association, shopping as a planned activity is included in 30% of all domestic trips generating $94B in retail expenditure! In fact, shopping is one of the primary activities for travelers Top Leisure Activities for U.S. Travelers* 1 Visiting relatives 2 Shopping 3 Visiting friends 4 Dining Proving once and for all that we care more about shopping than about having friends or eating to sustain life itself.... * source: U.S. Travel Association, March 2014

6 Retail Spending by Tourists Over Time Aside from dips during Recession periods, retail spending by tourists has been on an upward trajectory. $140,000 Retail Spending by Travelers US$ Millions $120,000 $100,000 $80,000 $60,000 $40,000 $20,000 $0 * source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, June 2014 Retail Spending is defined as non-food, non-lodging, non-travel retail spending by people who travel for any reason

7 Tackling the Tourist Market So how do we assess markets where the majority of your customers live hundreds of miles away? How much will these visitors effectively increase the population of the area s customer base? How much are they likely to spend? And what will they spend it on?

8 Our Panel... Robert Welch PopStats Holly Yonosko American Express Laura Schewel StreetLight Data

9 Definition Tourist/Visitor A person who arrives in a locale for a short duration, typically seeking entertainment or to socialize with others.

10 Las Vegas, NV (S Las Vegas Blvd & Tropicana) Given a one mile radius Household population 3,012 Average daily hotel population 84,218

11 Issues Proxies Seasonality Economics Origination Length of stay Household size Spending power

12 Proxies Airport deplanements Bureau of Transportation Statistics ( Hotel occupancies Smith Travel Research ( Anchors CVB ( Conventions ( Fairs ( Attractions (

13 Seasonality Key industries such as hospitality and retail can reveal seasonality in an area.

14 Economics American Travel Survey (BTS) National Household Travel Survey (DOT) State of the American Traveler Survey (Private)

15 Where do people tourists go?

16 Turning Data Exhaust into Tourist Insights Tourist Behaviors

17 Example 1: Sanibel Shopping Center Shopping Center

18 Shoppers by Home State Color Range 2-5% 1-2% 0.5-1% % V. low In State = ~75%

19 Center vs. All of Sanibel: Home State Color Meaning Sanibel higher than shopping center Sanibel slightly higher than shopping center Similar Shopping Center Higher than Sanibel

20 Top MSAs as Percent Total Shoppers 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% Naples-Immokalee-Marco Island, FL Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH Punta Gorda, FL Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, CT Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI St. Louis, MO-IL Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, WI Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, IN Columbus, OH North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL Rochester, NY Ann Arbor, MI Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI Richmond, VA Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV Pittsburgh, PA Madison, WI Cleveland-Elyria, OH Fort Myers (local) is 41%

21 Deep Dive on Home ZIPs for 2 MSAs Top 10 Minneapolis ZIPs 2 Richmond VA ZIPs Dominate ZIP % Visitors who Live Here ZIP % Visitors who Live Here % % % % % % % % % % % %

22 Possible Explanation: Income Thousands $70 $60 $50 Compare Median HH Incomes for these ZIPs % 16% 14% 12% % Households in these ZIPs with greater than $150k/year income 14% 17% $40 10% $30 8% $20 6% 4% $10 2% $0 0% Minneapolis Richmond Minneapolis Richmond

23 Vince Lombardi: Presumably No Locals

24 Top States for Rest Stoppers Color Range 20+% (NJ = 66%) 10-20% 2-10% <2% V. low

25 Weaknesses of Our Approach 1. Long-term tourists 2. International Tourists 3. Stores that are very close together or small 4. Manhattan

Light up a 1km grid of the city by where the most tourists are 5.

26 Other Interesting Tourist Analyses 1. Airport or hotel tagging 2. Tourists looking at billboards 3. Routes for car-based tourists 4. Light up a 1km grid of the city by where the most tourists are 5. Audience question: what do you want to know? (laura@streetlightdata.com)

27 Questions?

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