Bankwest First Time Buyer Deposit Report 2016

Transcription

1 Bankwest First Time Buyer Deposit Report 2016 December 2016

2 The eighth annual Bankwest First Time Buyer Deposit Report tracks the time it would take for first time buyers to save a in 465 local government areas (LGAs) across Australia over the five years to June The report quantifies how long it would take a first time buyer to save a 20% based on local incomes and local house prices and the level of the First Home Owners Grant, where available, by state. Data has been sourced from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) 2011 Census, the ABS Wage Price Index, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and Residex. Deposit savings times have been calculated on the basis of a first time buyer couple setting aside 20% of their combined pre-tax income annually. The calculation assumes the savings are ed into an online savings account each month and earn interest on this basis. This research was prepared by CoreData for Bankwest. Introduction 2

3 There are less than half as many first time buyers (FTBs) in Australia in 2016 (13.4%) as a proportion of total buyers than in 2009 (28.8%), as house price growth outstrips wage growth, locking many FTBs out of the market. It is taking Australian FTB couples longer to save a on a median priced house in every state and territory except WA compared to last year. Australian FTB couples need to save for an average of 4.4 years for a on a median priced house, on par with 4.2 years in the 12 months to June In Sydney, FTB couples need to save for an average of 8.4 years for a on a median priced house, six months longer than last year and the longest required savings time nationwide. First time buyer trends by state 20% house Change over 1 year Change over 5 years Savings needed for ACT Houses $117,600 NSW Houses $138,600 NT Houses $102,000 QLD Houses $92,800 SA Houses $78,700 TAS Houses $57,200 VIC Houses $108,900 WA Houses $94,400 Australian Houses $103,600 Australian FTB couples need to save for 4.4 years for a median priced house The eighth Bankwest First Time Buyer Report reveals that the average Australian FTB couple requires 4.4 years to raise a 20% to buy a median priced house, two months longer than last year. This is based on an 1 average combined salary of $116,072 for two people aged 25-34, saving 20% of their pre-tax income in a high interest online savings account. Australian FTB couples need an average of $103,600 in savings to put down a on their first house in , based on a median house value of $518,000 nationally. Although Australia s median house value grew by 3.9% in the 12 months to June 2016, this was slower than 2015 s growth of 6.3%. Furthermore, 3 variable-lending rates on owner-occupier housing loans have continued to fall to 5.25% and are notably lower than the 10-year average rate of 6.93%. A lower housing mortgage rate allows prospective home owners to service their loan quicker, increasing the attractiveness of buying a home. However, a lower loan rate generally goes hand in hand with a lower return on savings accounts, which could negatively influence the home buying decision. 1 ABS 6345 Wage Price Index data, June, 2016 (editor s notes for more details on calculation) 2 Residex: Median Value and Sale Count Data, ending June RBA Indicator Lending Rates, August House

4 4 The average online savings account rate over the last 12 months is 1.78%, do wn from 2.31% the previous year and well below the 10-year average of 4.16%. A lower savings rate increases the time needed to reach the required amount, illustrating the countervailing influences that interest rates have on first time buyers. NSW takes out the unenviable title of the state in which it takes longest to save the required for a median priced house, with the average FTB couple requiring 5.7 years to save $138,600. This is an increase of five months compared with last year and is the second largest increase nationwide behind the Northern Territory. Victoria comes in second, with an average savings time of 4.7 years, up slightly from 4.4 years in It takes more than four years for the average FTB couple to save for a in both of the territories, with the average ACT and Northern Territory FTB couple requiring 4.3 years to save, compared with 4.1 years and 3.4 years respectively in The required savings time for a on a median priced house is shortest for Tasmanian FTB couples (2.8 years, unchanged compared with 2015). The savings time required for the average FTB couple in the Northern Territory increased by almost a year (0.9 years) in the 12 months to June 2016, to 4.3 years from 3.4 years in The primary driver of the increase was the removal of the First Home Owner s Grant for established homes in early 2015, which meant Northern Territory FTB couples no longer had access to the grant of between $12,000 and $25,000 for homes valued under $600, Housing sales in the Northern Territory fell by 43.0% over the 12 months to June 2016, while non FTB housing sales fell by only 5.3% over the same period, suggesting that FTBs are feeling the pinch of the removal of the grant. First time buyer trends in capital cities Change over 1 year Change over 5 years Savings needed for Adelaide Houses $88,500 Australian Capital Territory Houses $117,600 Brisbane Houses $101,800 Darwin Houses $106,700 Hobart Houses $78,100 Melbourne Houses $148,600 Perth Houses $101,300 Sydney Houses $214,600 Capital cities average $119,650 FTB couples in Sydney need to save for more than eight years for first house Overall, the average savings time required for an FTB couple to buy a median priced house in the capital cities has increased to 4.9 years from 4.5 years in The average required savings time has increased in all capital cities to varying degrees, except in Perth, where it remains unchanged. House It now takes the average Sydney FTB couple 8.4 years to save a $214,600 on a median priced house, up from 7.9 years in This is largely driven by an 8.0% increase in the median house value 6 in Sydney of $79,500 for the 12 months to June 2016, with wage growth failing to keep up at 2.2% - the lowest growth rate in five years. 4 5 RBA Retail Deposit and Interest Rates, August ABS 5609: 12 Month weighted average of FTB housing sales to June ABS 6345 Wage Price Index 4

5 Melbourne trails Sydney, with the average required savings time for FTB couples sitting at 6.2 years, up slightly from 5.8 years in Hobart and Perth are the capital cities with the shortest time needed for first time buyer couples to save for a on a median priced home (both 3.8 years), although savings time in Hobart has increased slightly from 3.4 years in The extent of Sydney s residential property market growth is illustrated by the fact that most (53%) Local Government Areas (LGAs) now require the average FTB couple to save for more than 10 years for a on a median priced house, up from 44% in This proportion is also considerably higher than in Melbourne, where only 16% of LGAs require the average FTB couple to save for more than 10 years. At the other extreme, Perth is the only capital city where the average required savings time for a house has not increased year-on-year (3.8 years, unchanged compared with last year), likely driven by a $19,000 fall in the median house value in The stark differences between the capital cities illustrate the two-speed nature of Australia s economy and its effect on property prices and housing affordability. Top 10 Australian LGAs where it takes the most time to save a house 20% house Savings needed for Peppermint Grove Perth WA $686,300 Strathfield Sydney NSW $410,800 Mosman Sydney NSW $613,000 Woollahra Sydney NSW $595,600 Waverley Sydney NSW $492,700 Burwood Sydney NSW $336,900 Hunters Hill Sydney NSW $509,800 Manly Sydney NSW $438,900 Willoughby Sydney NSW $450,900 Boroondara Melbourne VIC $387,200 Peppermint Grove holds onto title as the LGA nationwide where it takes longest to save for a house Peppermint Grove in Western Australia remains the LGA in which it takes the average FTB couple longest to save for a on a median priced house (19.7 years). However, this is down from 20.2 years in 2015, likely driven by a decline in the median house value in the area, which fell by 4.5% in the year to June Peppermint Grove is the only LGA of the 10 requiring the longest to save for a house where this is true. In contrast, the nine other LGAs have seen the average median house value increase 12.4% over the same period. Strathfield (17.9 years for a required $410,800 ) and Mosman (17.4 years for a required $613,000 ) round out the top three LGAs in which it takes FTB couples longest to save for a on a median priced house. House 5

6 Top 10 Australian LGAs where it takes the least time to save a house Savings needed for Paroo Shire South West QLD $8,500 West Coast Council Mersey-Lyell TAS $13,000 Central Darling Far West NSW $13,300 Coolgardie South Eastern WA $23,600 Isaac al Central QLD $26,400 Coober Pedy Northern SA $17,500 Urana Murray NSW $18,100 Broken Hill Far West NSW $22,100 Peterborough Northern SA $16,700 Flinders Shire North West QLD $23,500 al and rural LGAs offer easier pathway to first home The number of LGAs in Australia in which it takes the average FTB couple less than two years to save for a house has remained stable at 21.1%. Compared with last year, Queensland has four extra LGAs where this is the case, while NSW has lost two LGAs in this cohort and South Australia has gained one. Nationwide, close to three in 10 (30.3%) LGAs (141 out of 465) require the average FTB couple to save for more than four years for a on a median priced house. Of these 141 LGAs, 111 are located in the capital cities. Furthermore, only 22.4% of LGAs in capital cities require a savings time of less than four years, down from 25.9% in the 12 months to June These findings suggest that regional and rural areas offer FTBs an easier route into the property market. Paroo Shire in South West Queensland takes the mantle as the LGA requiring the shortest time for FTB couples, taking just 0.5 years or six months, down slightly from 0.8 years in The median house price in Paroo Shire fell by $30,000 in 2016 to $42,500, making it the easiest property market for FTB couples to enter, with only $8,500 required for a 20%. Paroo Shire is followed closely by West Coast Council in Tasmania (0.5 years for a required of $13,000) and Central Darling in far western NSW (0.6 years for a required of $13,300). Two new LGAs entered the list of top 10 LGAs where it takes the shortest time to save, with seven of the eight LGAs reappearing from last year s list showing a decrease in the required savings time for a on a median priced house. In contrast, nine of the top 10 LGAs where it takes the longest time to save have experienced an increase in the required savings time compared with last year Annual number of First Time Buyers, Australia ( ) House Source: ABS 6

7 First Home Buyers as % of total dwellings purchased, Australia ( ) 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Source: ABS FTBs as a proportion of total dwelling sales in steady decline since 2009 peak 7 The number of FTBs in Australia has declined over the last 12 months, to 90,939 in the year to June 2016 from 94,517 the previous 12 months, driven by the removal of the First Home Owners' Grant for established homes by some state governments, coupled with rising property prices. Looking at total dwellings financed, there has been a steady decline in the proportion of FTBs in Australia since the 2009 peak. There are less than half as many FTBs as a proportion of total buyers in 2016 than there were in 2009, with FTBs now making up just 13.4% of the market, down from 28.8% five years ago. This trend can largely be explained by the removal of the Commonwealth Government s $7,000 First Home Owners Grant in 2009, as well as rising property prices. 7 ABS 5609 House 7

8 On average, it takes 3.5 years for FTB couples to save a 20% on a median priced unit in Australian capital cities, on par with 2015 (3.3 years). The market for units is more accessible than the housing market. It takes 1.4 years longer to save for a house compared to a unit in Australian capital cities an increase compared to 2015 (1.2 years). FTB couples in Sydney need to save for 5.6 years for a on a median priced unit, the longest savings time nationwide. First time buyer trends in capital cities (units) Change over 1 yr Change over 5 years Savings needed for Adelaide Units $63,300 ACT Units $81,400 Brisbane Units $77,300 Darwin Units $76,300 Hobart Units $54,800 Melbourne Units $101,300 Perth Units $85,600 Sydney Units $140,800 Capital city average $85,100 It takes three years less to save for a Sydney unit than a Sydney house On average, an Australian FTB couple looking to purchase a median priced unit in the capital cities would need to save 20% of their combined income for 3.5 years for an $85,100, on par with 2015 (3.3 years). 8 Sales for units increased by 5.4%, while house sales increased just 0.8% in the 12 months to June Although these figures represent all purchases of dwellings (not just FTBs), it reflects the nationwide trend towards medium density housing, as noted in the 2016 Bankwest Housing Density Report, and a growing preference for units among FTBs, as units provide quicker access to the property ladder. Across the capital cities, the average median value for units rose by 0.8% year-on-year, while the average wage increased by 2.1% over the same period. Despite this, there has not been a reduction in the required savings time for FTB couples, likely due to the removal of the First Home Owners Grant in the Northern Territory and Western Australia. On average, FTB couples in Sydney would need to save for 5.6 years for a on a median priced unit, the longest required time nationwide. Melbourne comes in second, with couples needing 4.3 years to save for their first unit, followed by Brisbane (3.3 years), Perth (3.2 years), Darwin (3.1 years), Canberra (3.0 years) and Hobart (2.7 years). Unit 8 Residex Housing & Units data to June

9 Darwin has experienced the greatest year-on-year increase in required savings time for a median priced unit (3.1 years vs. 2.3 years), influenced by the removal of the First Home Owners Grant in the NT, followed by Sydney (5.6 years vs. 5.3 years) and Hobart (2.7 years vs. 2.4 years). Over five years, however, Sydney leads the way with the biggest increase in required savings time (5.6 years vs. 4.0 years), while Darwin and Hobart have remained largely steady over this period. Despite the increases, it now takes 1.4 years longer to save for a median priced house than a unit in Australian capital cities, compared with 1.2 years in In Sydney, it takes nearly three years longer (2.8 years) for an FTB couple to save for a median priced house than for a median priced unit, on par with 2.6 years in Top 10 Australian LGAs where it takes the most time for FTB couples to save a unit Savings needed for Manly Sydney NSW $218,800 Burwood Sydney NSW $158,900 Sydney Sydney NSW $166,500 Byron Richmond-Tweed NSW $109,000 Woollahra Sydney NSW $226,400 Waverley Sydney NSW $193,800 Pittwater Sydney NSW $165,100 Randwick Sydney NSW $172,900 Ashfield Sydney NSW $137,900 Canada Bay Sydney NSW $176,600 Sydney dominates top 10 LGAs with the longest required savings time for units As in 2015, Sydney takes nine of the top 10 LGAs with the longest required savings time for a median priced unit, with the other LGA being Byron in northern NSW. Each of the top 10 LGAs has seen a year-on-year increase in the required savings time, with Manly having the greatest increase, to 8.3 years from 7.4 years in 2015 followed closely by Woollahra, which rose to 6.8 years from 6.0 years in Top 10 Australian LGAs where it takes the least time for FTB couples to save a unit Years to save 20% unit Savings needed for Latrobe Mersey-Lyell VIC $33,200 Glenelg Western District VIC $30,400 Muswellbrook Hunter NSW $43,600 Central Highlands al Darling Downs QLD $47,800 South Burnett al Wide Bay-Burnett QLD $32,200 Kalgoorlie-Boulder South Eastern WA $48,900 Deniliquin Murray NSW $32,000 Kwinana Perth WA $42,500 Burnie City Council Mersey-Lyell TAS $34,500 Cowra Central West NSW $30,800 9 Cowra not included in 2015 report due to low sample size in Residex data for 2015 unit values Unit 9

10 Latrobe is the Australian LGA with the shortest required savings time for a unit Across all LGAs in Australia, the shortest required time to save for a unit is in Latrobe in the Mersey-Lyell region in Victoria. FTB couples in Latrobe need only save for an average of 1.4 years for a $33,200 on a median priced unit. Latrobe is closely followed by Glenelg in Victoria (1.4 years for a required of $30,400) and Muswellbrook in NSW s Hunter region (1.5 years for a required of $43,600). Overall, the required savings time in each of the 10 LGAs where it takes the shortest time to save for a unit is largely unchanged compared with last year, with the only exception being Central Highlands al in Queensland, where saving time has fallen slightly to 1.5 years for a required of $47,800 from 1.9 years in Unit 10

11 3. NSW Deposit Trends NSW FTB couples have to save for an average of 5.7 years for a on a median priced house, up slightly from 5.3 years in 2015 and well above the national average of 4.4 years. Savings time rises considerably to an average of 8.4 years for a median priced house in Sydney, up from 7.9 years in The savings time of 8.4 years in the capital city is also notably higher than the average required savings time for a median priced unit in Sydney of 5.6 years (5.3 years in 2015). All Sydney LGAs require FTB couples to save for longer than four years for a house, while more than half (53%) of LGAs require longer than 10 years to save. FTBs in NSW are facing the most competitive property market in Australia, with the NSW median house value increasing by 8.2% in 2016 and average wages for year olds only growing by 2.2% over the same period. With property value growth exceeding wage growth, it is taking longer for FTBs in NSW, particularly those in Sydney, to enter the property market. NSW 11

12 Longer than ever before for Sydney FTBs to save house as median value tops $1m In 2016, Sydney FTB couples need to save for an average of 8.3 years to put down a 20% on a median priced house worth $1,073,000. Compared to 2015, this represents an increase of six months in the required savings time and compared to two years ago, Sydney FTB couples now need 1.7 years longer to save the hefty $214,600 to purchase a median priced house. The median house value in Sydney rose above the $1 million mark for the first time in 2016, and with wage growth failing to keep up, it is unsurprising that it is getting more difficult to enter the Sydney property market for FTBs. Top 10 NSW LGAs where it takes the most time for FTB couples to save a house house house house Savings needed for 20% house Strathfield Sydney NSW $410,800 Mosman Sydney NSW $613,000 Woollahra Sydney NSW $595,600 Waverley Sydney NSW $492,700 Burwood Sydney NSW $336,900 Hunters Hill Sydney NSW $509,800 Manly Sydney NSW $438,900 Willoughby Sydney NSW $450,900 Randwick Sydney NSW $392,900 Lane Cove Sydney NSW $440,000 Strathfield overtakes Mosman for title of NSW LGA with longest required savings time for a house At the top end, Sydney s housing market has continued its incredible growth, with the required savings times in the top 10 LGAs where it takes longest for an FTB couple to save a rising by an average of 1.6 years compared with last year. Strathfield has overtaken Mosman as the LGA with the longest required savings time for a on a median priced house. The average FTB couple in Strathfield needs 17.9 years to save the required $410,800 on a median priced house. This is up from 16.2 years in 2015, likely driven by a 10.3% increase in the median house value in Strathfield in Although Mosman has lost its poll position, it still requires the largest of $613,000 for a median priced house. Mosman has also seen a year-on-year increase in the required savings time to 17.4 years, from 16.3 years in Woollahra rounds out the top three NSW LGAs where it takes the most time for an FTB couple to save a 20%, with the required savings time for a $595,600 on a median priced house rising to 16.9 years from 14.8 years in Randwick is the only new entrant into the top 10 list compared to Randwick saw its median house value rise by 13.3% in the year to June 2016, meaning the required savings time has increased to 13.7 years from 12.2 years in Randwick replaces Ashfield, which has slipped out of the top 10 despite the median house value in Ashfield rising by 8.2% in Ashfield s experience demonstrates the widespread strength of Sydney s property market, with property prices rising across the board. NSW The required time to save for a on a median priced house has increased for 72% of NSW LGAs over the last year, while over a five-year horizon, the time to save for a house has increased for 97% of NSW LGAs. 12

13 Top 10 NSW LGAs where it takes the least time for FTB couples to save a house house house house Savings needed for Central Darling Far West NSW $13,300 Urana Murray NSW $18,100 Broken Hill Far West NSW $22,100 Coonamble North Western NSW $23,300 Brewarrina Far West NSW $20,900 Bogan North Western NSW $28,700 Bourke North Western NSW $27,800 Bland Central West NSW $28,500 Carrathool Murrumbidgee NSW $24,800 Cobar North Western NSW $40,700 Savings time for NSW regional and rural houses static At the other end of the housing market in NSW, Central Darling in the state s far west provides NSW FTBs with their quickest avenue to purchasing their first home. Purchasing a house in the Central Darling LGA only requires an average of 0.6 years, or around seven months, of saving to raise the required $13,300. Central Darling is followed by Urana (0.9 years for a required $18,100 ) and Broken Hill (1.0 year for a required $22,100 ). Eight of the 10 LGAs in NSW where it takes the least amount of time to save also featured in last year s list. The required savings time for a on a median priced house in each of the LGAs on this list is also largely in line with The gap between the shortest and the longest required savings times has widened in NSW, with rural and regional areas offering much quicker avenues into the property market for NSW FTBs. Unit savings time in Sydney continues to increase For Sydney FTBs wishing to purchase a unit, it now takes an average of 5.6 years to save for a on a median priced unit, up slightly from 5.3 years in However, units offer Sydney FTBs an easier route into their first home, with the savings time required for a on a median priced unit on average 2.8 years shorter than for a on a median priced house. Across NSW, FTB couples looking to buy a unit must save for an average of 5.3 years, up slightly from 4.9 years in This increase has been driven largely by the high performing apartment market in Sydney, as well as unit valuations in Byron Bay appreciating by 13% in the 12 months to June Top 10 Sydney LGAs where it takes the most time for FTB couples to save a unit unit unit unit Savings needed for Manly Sydney NSW $218,800 Burwood Sydney NSW $158,900 Sydney Sydney NSW $166,500 Woollahra Sydney NSW $226,400 Waverley Sydney NSW $193,800 Pittwater Sydney NSW $165,100 Randwick Sydney NSW $172,900 Ashfield Sydney NSW $137,900 Canada Bay Sydney NSW $176,600 Strathfield Sydney NSW $127,200 NSW 13

14 Manly tops the list of longest required savings time for units in Sydney and nationwide Sydney FTB couples wanting to buy a median priced unit in Manly require an average of 8 years to save the $218,800. This is the longest required savings time for a median priced unit across NSW and nationwide. Manly is followed by Burwood (7.5 years for a required $158,900 ) and Sydney CBD (7.1 years for a required $166,500 ). Most LGAs within the Sydney region making up the top 10 have seen notable year-on-year increases in the time required to save for a median priced unit, with an average increase of six months. Top 10 Sydney LGAs where it takes the least time for FTB couples to save a unit unit unit unit Savings needed for Wollondilly Sydney NSW $83,000 Wyong Sydney NSW $75,000 Camden Sydney NSW $92,500 Campbelltown Sydney NSW $81,200 Penrith Sydney NSW $87,800 Fairfield Sydney NSW $84,000 Hawkesbury Sydney NSW $91,700 Blue Mountains Sydney NSW $92,400 Gosford Sydney NSW $92,700 Blacktown Sydney NSW $97,800 Sydney unit market rising across the board Wollondilly provides Sydney FTBs with their fastest avenue to purchasing a unit. Purchasing a unit in this LGA requires an average of 3.4 years of savings to raise the required $83,000. Wollondilly is followed by Wyong (3.5 years for a required $75,000 ) and Camden (3.6 years for a required $92,500 ). Interestingly, even the bottom end of the Sydney market has seen slight year-on-year increases in the required savings time for a median priced unit. This reflects the widespread strength of Sydney s property market, with an average increase of 52.7% in the median unit value across the 10 LGAs where it takes the least time to save for a over the last five years. Annual number of First Time Buyers, New South Wales ( ) NSW Source: ABS 14

15 NSW FTBs being locked out of the market The number of FTBs in NSW has decreased to 17,590 in 2016 from 18,943 in 2015, a 7.1% decline. FTBs now only account for 8.3% of dwellings purchased in NSW, down from 10.4% in Census data reveals NSW s proportion of residents aged between is 21.1%. If we infer the age of people between to represent our current year old 2016 sample, the proportion of year olds currently would be 20.6%, a decline of 36,534 within our FTB bracket in NSW. Although changing NSW age demographic may explain some of the difference, FTBs are finding it harder to enter the NSW property market, with strong property price growth across the state, outpacing average wage growth. NSW 15

16 4. Victorian Deposit Trends Victorian FTB couples need to save for an average of 4.7 years to raise a on a median priced house, up slightly from 4.4 years in Melbourne FTB couples need to save for an average of 6.2 years to raise a on a median priced house, up slightly from 5.8 years in While the number of FTBs in the market rose in Melbourne by 3.6% in the 12 months to June 2016, the proportion of FTBs in the market decreased to 14.9% - half the early 2010 peak of 29.5%. More than half (52%) of Melbourne LGAs require FTBs to save for more than six years for a on a median priced house. The average FTB couple in Victoria would need 4.7 years to save the initial $108,900 required for a on a median priced house. Victoria has the second longest average required savings time of all states and territories in Australia, behind only NSW. Savings time has increased slightly from 4.4 years in 2015, as the growth in median house value of 7.2% over the last year outpaces the growth in average wages of 2.3% during the same period. VIC 16

17 Melbourne has second longest required savings time for a house Melbourne FTB couples need to save for an average of 6.2 years for the $148,600 required for an initial 20% on a median priced house, an extra 0.4 years or five months compared with This has been driven by an 8.9% increase in the median house value in Melbourne - the largest proportional increase in any capital city for However, while average wage growth in Melbourne has been the highest of any capital city (2.3%), it still lags the growth in median house value, leading to an increase in the average required savings time for FTB couples. Top 10 Victorian LGAs where it takes the most time for FTB couples to save a house 20% house Savings needed for Boroondara Melbourne VIC $387,200 Stonnington Melbourne VIC $365,900 Bayside Melbourne VIC $323,800 Glen Eira Melbourne VIC $262,300 Port Phillip Melbourne VIC $294,000 Monash Melbourne VIC $213,400 Yarra Melbourne VIC $236,200 Melbourne Melbourne VIC $215,500 Manningham Melbourne VIC $224,500 Whitehorse Melbourne VIC $203,600 Melbourne LGAs dominate list of Victorian LGAs with longest savings time for a house The list of top 10 Victorian LGAs requiring the longest savings time for a on a median priced house is dominated by inner city Melbourne LGAs, similar to the 2015 results. Boorondara tops the list, with an average required savings time of 14.1 years for a of $387,200, followed by Stonnington (12.9 years for a required $365,900 ) and Bayside (11.2 years for a required $323,800 ). Each of the top 10 Victorian LGAs has experienced a year-on-year increase in the average required savings time, particularly Bayside (11.2 years vs. 9.5 years). Top 10 Victorian LGAs where it takes the least time for FTB couples to save a house 20% house Savings needed for 20% house Hindmarsh Wimmera VIC $20,600 Buloke Mallee VIC $22,900 West Wimmera Wimmera VIC $22,600 Gannawarra Mallee VIC $32,400 Northern Grampians Wimmera VIC $34,600 Loddon Loddon VIC $32,600 Latrobe Mersey-Lyell VIC $43,900 Glenelg Western District VIC $41,100 Ararat Central Highlands VIC $37,900 Southern Grampians Western District VIC $39,600 VIC 17

18 Hindmarsh requires smallest house in Victoria The shire of Hindmarsh, located in Victoria s Western Wimmera region, requires local FTB couples to save for an average of just 1.1 years for the required $20,600 on a median priced house. The LGAs with the next shortest savings times are Buloke (1.1 years for a required $22,900 ) and West Wimmera (1.4 years for a required $22,600 ). Four of the 10 Victorian LGAs with the least time to save a have seen a year-on-year reduction in average required savings time while three have experienced increases. The remaining LGAs in the bottom 10 are on par with last year. Within Victoria, 81% of LGAs saw a rise in the average savings time required for a on a median priced house compared to the previous year. The proportion of LGAs where the average required savings time exceeds four years has also increased to 41% from 34% during the 12 months to June Looking over a five-year horizon, 97% of Victorian LGAs have experienced an increase in average savings time. Top 10 Melbourne LGAs where it takes the most time for FTB couples to save a unit Savings needed for Monash Melbourne VIC $128,700 Bayside Melbourne VIC $148,900 Whitehorse Melbourne VIC $123,200 Boroondara Melbourne VIC $133,900 Manningham Melbourne VIC $124,500 Glen Eira Melbourne VIC $117,100 Banyule Melbourne VIC $108,600 Melbourne Melbourne VIC $101,600 Yarra Melbourne VIC $110,000 Stonnington Melbourne VIC $112,500 Monash tops the list of LGAs with longest required savings time for units in Melbourne It takes an average Melbourne FTB couple 5.7 years to raise the $128,700 needed for a on a median priced unit in Monash. This is the longest savings time for units in Melbourne and up from 5.2 years in The increase is largely due to the median unit value in the area rising by 11.4% for the 12 months to June the largest increase of all Melbourne LGAs in the top 10. Monash is followed by Bayside (5.3 years for a required $148,900 ) and Whitehorse (5.2 years for a required $123,200 ) as the LGAs with the second and third longest savings time for a unit in Melbourne. Top 10 Melbourne LGAs where it takes least time for FTB couples to save a unit VIC Savings needed for Melton Melbourne VIC $53,900 Cardinia Melbourne VIC $56,400 Wyndham Melbourne VIC $61,300 Frankston Melbourne VIC $64,100 Hume Melbourne VIC $64,300 Casey Melbourne VIC $64,700 Whittlesea Melbourne VIC $68,500 Brimbank Melbourne VIC $66,100 Greater Dandenong Melbourne VIC $68,600 Mornington Peninsula Melbourne VIC $79,400 18

19 Melton provides fastest pathway into Melbourne s units market Melbourne FTB couples need an average of 2.4 years to save a $53,900 on a median priced unit in Melton, the lowest required savings times in the city. Other accessible LGAs for FTBs include Cardinia (2.5 years for a required $56,400 ) and Wyndham (2.6 years for a required $61,300 ) Annual number of First Time Buyers, Victoria ( ) Source: ABS Proportion of Victorian FTBs half the 2010 peak The number of FTBs in Victoria has risen by 3.6% in the 12 months to June 2016, while the number of non-first time buyers has increased by 16.3%. The percentage of FTBs in the Melbourne market decreased to 14.9% from 16.4% over the last year and is considerably lower than the early 2010 peak of 29.5%. Low interest rates have seen dwellings sales increase for both FTBs and non-first time buyers, with non-first time buyers entering at a much faster rate. VIC 19

20 5. Queensland Deposit Trends Queensland FTBs need to save for an average of 4.0 years for a on a median priced house, on par with 3.9 years in 2015 but below the national average of 4.4 years. Brisbane FTBs need to save for an average of 4.3 years for a on a median priced house, in line with 2015 (4.1 years). Queensland is one of the most accessible states for FTBs, with one in three Queensland LGAs requiring less than two years to save for a median priced unit, the highest proportion of any state. The average FTB couple in Queensland need to save for 4.0 years to raise a $92,800 for a median priced house, on par with 2015 (3.9 years). The median house value in the state has risen by 4.3%, exceeding the average wage growth of 1.9% for the 12 months to June However, over a five-year horizon, average wage growth has marginally outpaced median house value growth (14.4% vs. 13.6%). Brisbane FTB couples require an average of 4.3 years to raise a on a median priced house in Brisbane worth $509,000, in line with 2015 (4.1 years). QLD 20

21 Queensland is one of the most accessible states for houses for FTBs Queensland s housing market is one of the most accessible in Australia for FTBs. Its top end housing market has among the shortest savings times for FTB couples, with only the Northern Territory and Tasmanian housing markets having shorter savings times. No Queensland LGA requires more than six years to save a for a median priced house, and nine in 10 (90%) require savings time of less than four years. Top 10 Queensland LGAs where it takes the most time for FTB couples to save a house Savings needed for Gold Coast City Gold Coast QLD $118,400 Noosa South East Queensland QLD $112,600 Brisbane City Brisbane QLD $130,400 Sunshine Coast Wide Bay al Burnett QLD $101,900 Redland City Brisbane QLD $98,100 Scenic Rim al West Moreton QLD $80,700 Cairns al Far North QLD $78,400 Moreton Bay al Brisbane QLD $83,200 Logan City Brisbane QLD $78,000 Mareeba West Moreton QLD $63,300 Gold Coast and Noosa the regions requiring the longest savings time for houses Only four of the top 10 LGAs requiring the longest savings time for a house are within Queensland s capital city of Brisbane. Gold Coast (5.6 years) and Noosa (5.4 years) top the list for the longest required savings time. Both LGAs have experienced a year-on-year increase in required savings time, from 5.2 years and 4.8 years respectively, as the median house value has increased by 10.3% and 15.8% respectively over the last year. Demand for housing in these LGAs is likely to be strong given their popularity as tourism destinations and proximity to the coast. However, illustrating the relative accessibility of Queensland houses, 54% of Queensland LGAs (27 of 50 LGAs) have experienced a decline in required savings time for FTB couples in the 12 months to June Top 10 Queensland LGAs where it takes the least time for FTB couples to save a house Savings needed for Paroo Shire South West QLD $8,500 Isaac al Central QLD $26,400 Flinders Shire North West QLD $23,500 Central Highlands al Darling Downs QLD $39,300 Blackall Tambo al Central West QLD $23,600 Murweh Shire South West QLD $29,600 Quilpie Shire South West QLD $23,700 Cloncurry Shire North West QLD $47,000 Charters Towers al Northern QLD $40,400 Banana Shire South West QLD $50,100 QLD 21

22 Paroo Shire the most accessible LGA for FTBs nationwide Queensland has the largest proportion of LGAs (32% or 16 out of 50) which require less than two years for the average FTB couple to save for a house. The quickest entrance into the Queensland and the Australian housing market overall, is via Paroo Shire, where FTB couples only need to save for 0.5 years (6 months) to raise the required $8,500. The next quickest options are in Isaac al (0.7 years for a required $26,400 ) and Flinders Shire (1 year for a required $23,500). Top 10 Queensland LGAs where it takes the most time for FTB couples to save a unit Unit Unit Unit Savings needed for 20% Unit $s (June 2016) Noosa South East Queensland QLD $89,800 Gold Coast Gold Coast QLD $73,600 Sunshine Coast Wide Bay-Burnett QLD $72,300 Brisbane City Brisbane QLD $83,400 Redland City Brisbane QLD $68,900 Moreton Bay Brisbane QLD $64,100 Western Downs Wide Bay-Burnett QLD $64,400 Somerset West Moreton QLD $61,000 Bundaberg Wide Bay-Burnett QLD $48,900 Toowoomba Darling Downs QLD $54,600 Noosa (4.4 years), Gold Coast (3.5 years) and Sunshine Coast (3.5 years) are the Queensland LGAs requiring the longest savings time for FTB couples to raise a on a median priced unit (requiring a of $89,800, $73,600 and $72,300 respectively). In Brisbane City, an FTB couple would need to save for an average of 3.4 years for the required $83,400 on a median priced unit Annual number of First Time Buyers, Queensland ( ) Source: ABS QLD Queensland FTBs increase marginally In the year to June 2016, the number of Queensland FTBs increased marginally by 1.5% while the number of non-first time buyers in Queensland also increased by 5% over the same period. FTBs make up 15.8% of the dwellings purchased, on par with 2015 (16.3%). 22

23 6. Western Australia Deposit Trends FTB couples in Western Australia need to save for an average of 3.5 years to raise a on a median priced house, on par with 2015 (3.6 years) but below the national average of 4.4 years. Perth is one of the nation s most accessible capital cities for FTBs, sharing the shortest required savings time among the capital cities with Hobart (3.8 years), driven by a decline in the median house value. Despite this, the number of FTBs in Western Australia declined by 14.1% in the 12 months to June 2016 to 16,424 as falling rents and the removal of the First Home Owners Grant on established homes in October 2015 have made buying a home less attractive. Of Perth s 30 LGAs, two in three (67%) require longer than four years to save for a on a median priced house. The average FTB couple in Western Australia would need to save for 3.5 years to raise a 20% of $94,400 to buy a median priced house. This is on par with 2015 (3.6 years) but lower than the national average of 4.4 years. WA 23

24 WA houses remain accessible to FTBs despite removal of grant While average wages have only grown by 1.9%, the second lowest wage growth rate nationwide, the median house value in WA declined by 4.1% in This fall has maintained the relative affordability of housing in the state, despite the removal of the First Home Owners' Grant of $3,000 for established homes under $750,000 as of the 3rd of October, Perth FTB couples need an average of 3.8 years to save the required $101,300 for a on a median priced house - a negligible 0.8% reduction compared to While the median house value in Perth declined by 3.6% in the 12 months to June 2016, the removal of the First Home Owners' Grant has a countervailing effect on the required savings time. Nonetheless, Perth houses remain relatively accessible and Perth shares the shortest required savings time among the capital cities with Hobart, making it one of Australia s most accessible property markets for FTBs. Top 10 Western Australian LGAs where it takes the most time for FTB couples to save a house Savings needed for Peppermint Grove Perth WA $686,300 Nedlands Perth WA $331,500 Cottesloe Perth WA $362,200 Perth Perth WA $271,900 Mosman Park Perth WA $255,800 Claremont Perth WA $286,500 Cambridge Perth WA $251,400 East Fremantle Perth WA $249,900 Subiaco Perth WA $232,400 Vincent Perth WA $183,300 Peppermint Grove holds onto title as the nation s least accessible LGA for FTBs Although its median house value has fallen by 4.5% in 2016, Peppermint Grove still requires FTB couples to save $686,300 for a 20%, which would take on average 19.7 years - the longest savings time of any LGA in Australia. The savings required for a in Peppermint Grove alone is 35.5% higher than the median house value in the capital city, Perth. Peppermint Grove is followed by Nedlands (11.7 years for a required $331,500) and Cottesloe (11.0 years for a required $362,200). Subiaco and Claremont are the only two LGAs in the top 10 list to have seen an increase in median house value in 2016 (1.8% and 1.7% respectively) and a year-on-year increase in savings time for FTB couples. The other capital cities of Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane have each experienced increases in required savings time for a house, as well as the median house value at the top end. Perth is therefore bucking the trend among the capital cities, partly reflective of the two-speed nature of Australia s economy and its impact on house prices and affordability as well as the impact of the end of the mining construction boom on the capital s local economy and property market. WA 24

25 Top 10 Western Australian LGAs where it takes the least time for FTB couples to save a house Savings needed for Coolgardie South Eastern WA $23,600 Gnowangerup Lower Great Southern WA $21,000 Merredin Midlands WA $31,500 Pingelly Upper Great Southern WA $30,200 Collie South West WA $43,000 Wongan-Ballidu Midlands WA $33,100 Ravensthorpe Eastern WA $38,600 Moora Midlands WA $32,800 East Pilbara Pilbara WA $55,900 Boyup Brook South West WA $35,000 Pilbara sees largest reduction in required savings time due to mining downturn Coolgardie in South Eastern WA is the LGA in which it takes the quickest time for an FTB couple to save the required $23,600 on a median priced house (just 0.7 years). wide, 21.4% of LGAs (18 out of 84) require less than two years for FTB couples to save a on a median priced house, down from 25.0% in Gnowangerup (1.0 year for a required $21,000 ) and Merredin (1.2 years for a required $31,500 ) round out the top three. The East Pilbara LGA has seen the largest reduction in required savings time from 3.5 years in 2015 to 1.5 years due to a huge reduction in the median house value in the area. The median house value in the LGA has dropped by 57.6%, the largest decrease for any LGA Australia-wide in the 12 months to June 2016, due to the mining downturn and its adverse impact on employment and the local economy. Neighbouring LGA, Port Hedland, also experienced a 32.6% decline in its median house value over the same period. Couples wishing to purchase a house in Port Hedland now only need to save for 2.5 years in 2016, almost half of the 4.9 years required in Top 10 Perth LGAs where it takes the most time for FTB couples to save a unit Savings needed for Nedlands Perth WA $136,300 Cottesloe Perth WA $147,900 Claremont Perth WA $137,200 Fremantle Perth WA $117,800 East Fremantle Perth WA $118,900 Melville Perth WA $114,300 Perth Perth WA $98,000 Victoria Park Perth WA $96,900 South Perth Perth WA $108,000 Vincent Perth WA $97,500 WA 25

26 Perth units becoming more affordable as median value falls It takes the average Perth FTB couple 3.2 years to save for a on a median priced unit, on par with 2015 (3.4 years). Of Perth s top 10 LGAs where it takes the most time for an FTB couple to save a unit, no LGA has seen a year-on-year increase in required savings time, with eight LGAs seeing a decline in savings time. Nedlands tops the list with an FTB couple required to save for an average of 5.0 years for the $136,300 on a median priced unit, 0.4 years or around five months less than it would have taken in Cottesloe (4.7 years for a required $147,900 ) and Claremont (4.6 years for a required $137,200 ) round out the top three. Top 10 Perth LGAs where it takes the least time for FTB couples to save a unit Savings needed for Kwinana Perth WA $42,500 Rockingham Perth WA $58,100 Armadale Perth WA $52,700 Cambridge Perth WA $66,800 Mundaring Perth WA $66,500 Gosnells Perth WA $65,200 Swan Perth WA $70,300 Wanneroo Perth WA $73,800 Kalamunda Perth WA $79,700 Bayswater Perth WA $79,700 Kwinana the only Perth LGA where it takes less than two years to save for a unit Even in Perth s most accessible areas, it takes more than two years for the average FTB couple to save for a unit in all LGAs but Kwinana. Kwinana has the shortest required savings time for a unit of 1.6 years to raise the $42,500 required for a median priced unit. It takes FTB couples in Rockingham and Armadale, on average, two years to save a $58,100 and $52,700, respectively Annual number of First Time Buyers, Western Australia ( ) Source: ABS WA 26

27 WA FTB numbers decreasing as rents decline The number of FTBs in Western Australia declined by 14.1% in the 12 months to June 2016 to 16,424. The decline for non-first time buyers was just 4.5% over the same period. Slowing population growth and housing 11 supply increases in the state have led to Perth rental prices falling by 8.1% in the 12 months to March Lower rental prices have delayed FTBs from purchasing their first home, as renting at a cheaper rate becomes more attractive. Another likely cause is the removal of the First Home Owners Grant in October Although only available on established houses valued at less than $750,000, FTBs had government assistance to enter the majority of Perth s property market. 11 REIWA market Indicators to March 2016 WA 27

28 7. South Australian Deposit Trends South Australian FTB couples require an average of 3.6 years to save a on a median priced house, up slightly compared to 2015 (3.3 years). Adelaide FTB couples need to save for an average of 4.0 years for a on a median priced house, up slightly from 3.6 years in In the capital, 68.4% of LGAs require longer than four years to save a on a median priced house. However, Adelaide remains relatively accessible for FTBs compared to other capital cities. South Australian FTBs saving for longer for a house The average FTB couple in South Australia needs to save for 3.6 years to raise a 20% of $78,700 to purchase a median priced house, up slightly from 3.3 years in 2015 but still below the national average of 4.4 years. The main driver of this increase has been South Australia s median house value growing by 3.8% for the 12 months to June 2016, outpacing average wage growth of 2.2% for the same period. Adelaide FTB couples require $88,500 for a on a median priced house, up from $78,900 in The average Adelaide FTB couple needs 4.0 years to save this, up slightly from 3.6 years in SA 28