IN SUMMARY. Sydney is growing; but the South is not included. A strategic hub?
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- Frank Cobb
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1 IN SUMMARY There is a serious brain drain in southern Sydney. The Commission needs to prioritise Southern Sydney in its development but nothing is being done, thereby missing the opportunity to stop it. Lowest 20-year jobs growth (2016 and 2036) Lowest jobs per capita (2016 and 2036) Lowest amount of jobs in strategic centres (2016 and 2036) Lowest jobs in strategic centres as a percentage (2016 and 2036) Lowest jobs in strategic centres per capita (2016 and 2036) Lowest proportion of knowledge and professional services jobs (2016 and 2036) Governments are failing to invest the necessary infrastructure to prevent southern Sydney from falling further behind. Lowest overall investment ( ) Lowest investment per capita ( ) Lack of strategic centres in the South mean that excluding Kogarah, only 14% of Southern Sydney and Canterbury-Bankstown area suburbs are within 30 min public commute of a strategic centre The Commission disappointingly places minuscule priority on the opportunity and citizens of the South District. Sydney is growing; but the South is not included The Commission's research and strategy has pointed out that, in 2016, of the six Districts in the Plan, the South District had the lowest number of jobs per capita (0.326) and lowest 20-year jobs growth rate (21%). Additionally, the South District has the second-lowest portion of jobs in the knowledge sector (19%), only above the South West District. However, with the completion of Badgerys Creek Airport, it is highly plausible to hypothesise that the South West district will overtake the South District even in this respect. While the Commission has the opportunity to bring the South up to speed with the remainder of Sydney, the Commission s strategy will not bring it up to speed by attracting the knowledge and professional industries and talent needed to do so. Instead, the District Plan further exacerbates the South District s brain drain, to fall even further behind the rest of Sydney by Interconnectedness and the development of new industries is crucial to the inclusion of a city in the global economy. Therefore it is imperative that knowledge and professional sector be supported throughout all of metropolitan Sydney to foster inclusive and equitable growth. However, the South District is once again neglected in this category. It has only one classified Strategic Centre in the Commission s plan (similar to the West District), Kogarah, which is virtually a consolation prize for the South rather than a strategic centre to be taken seriously. A strategic hub? Kogarah is the second-smallest Strategic Centre in all of Sydney and the only one in the South District. It has 40% less jobs than even the 2 nd -largest Strategic Centre in every other District (except for the West, which only has Penrith; but at 44,000 jobs, it targets almost triple Kogarah s size). It has less jobs than district centres such as Hurstville or Bankstown, or even locations outside the South District including Dee Why. When comparing the South District s population to the rest of Sydney, the plan provides comparatively minuscule employment opportunities, especially for skilled professionals.
2 In 2036, jobs in South District Strategic Centres will comprise only 8.5% of the South District s jobs, and have only 0.02 jobs per capita, both the lowest proportion of any District. If more strategic jobs are not allocated to the South District soon, the South District clearly risks being isolated from Sydney s globalisation. The lowest job concentration in strategic centres of any District means less interconnectedness with the global economy, less centralisation, and consequently, less efficiency as infrastructure is less scalable. In the long term, this means more brain drain and less competitiveness. If it s not the best place to work, will the South even remain a good place to live? If the South cannot organically provide centralised, professional employment opportunities, one must consider how accessible it is to employment centres elsewhere best benchmarked against the Commission s own 30-minute city strategy. 30 out of 74 suburbs in the St George and Sutherland Shire areas have train stations. However, of those 30, only 10 are within 25 minutes from Central via their fastest peak-hour service (assuming a 5-minute walk to the nearest station for most commuters). Only 3 bus services (303, 422, and 423) connect the St George & Sutherland Shire to the City, none of which have 30 minute trips. If the South District is meant to be a place to live rather than work, it does not provide much opportunity; the 30-minute commute to strategic centres is farther out of reach for the South District than almost all others. Where is the investment in the South? Demand in the South is not waning it will be the 4 th fastest growing District by population until But governments are not investing nearly as much as in other regions the South District has the lowest per capita investment on major s over the past 20 years, and will have the second lowest in the next 30 years. However, the lowest is the South West District, where confirmed infrastructure s do not cover the budget, scale and opportunity of Western Sydney Airport and the demand it will generate. The South s decline has already begun The effects of this isolation on the South District are already being made clear in its desirability. According to Realestate.com.au, between 2010 and 2015, 90% of suburbs in the Sutherland Shire dropped in NSW s house price rankings, with an average fall of 33 places, even as new suburbs were being added. Recommendations 1) Develop Hurstville as a strategic centre. Like Macquarie Park in the north and Parramatta in the west, it is less than 30 minutes from Sydney CBD. It is also less than 30 minutes from almost every point in the South District, and therefore fulfilling its role as a strategic centre will enable the entire South District to be a strategic centre for the knowledge and professional industries. Key to this is: a. More commercial office zoning. Over the past 10 years, all developments in Hurstville greater than 10 storeys have been predominantly residential. We are wasting an opportunity to turn a well-serviced hub into a place to live and work. b. Extend the Illawarra Line quadruplication to Mortdale depot. This will increase the capacity for more services on the line to serve a new employment centre in Hurstville. c. Better bus routing. Regular services from all suburbs to Hurstville and Bankstown make buses a more viable commuting option and Bankstown and Hurstville more viable employment centres. 2) Develop the Grand Parade as a bus corridor. Similar to the rapid bus lanes on the M2, the M1 could be a fast way to funnel commuters from the St George & Sutherland Shire into Sydney CBD. 3) Direct buses from Sydney Airport to centres in Southern Sydney. Sydney Airport is a key advantage of Southern Sydney to be more integrated into Sydney s growth and more connections should be a priority.
3 2016 Strategic Centres jobs (by 000s) District Centres jobs (by 000s) Long term investment and growth Pop. ( 000s) 20Y Jobs growth Jobs Jobs/ capita Knowledge sector District jobs District jobs/capita investment investment/ capita Central % % % % % $.0bn $0.0 North % % % % % $2.3bn $2,594.3 South % % % % % $.0bn $0.0 South West % % % % % $2.3bn $3,215.9 West % % % % % $2.1bn $5,918.8 West Central % % % % % $.3bn $ Strategic Centres jobs (by 000s) District Centres jobs (by 000s) Long term investment and growth Pop. ( 000s) Pop growth 20Y Jobs growth Jobs Jobs/capita District jobs District jobs/capita investment investment/ capita Central % 44% % % % $15.9bn $11,883.4 North % 37% % % % $8.5bn $7,848.6 South % 21% % % % $5.2bn $5,500.6 South West % 50% % % % $4.5bn $4,090.1 West % 49% % % % $4.5bn $9,970.9 West Central % 51% % % % $10.9bn $7, Comparative economic indicators, 2016 and Sources: Greater Sydney Commission; Transport for New South Wales; NSW Roads & Maritime Services; Sydney Morning Herald; ABC News; Sydney Metro District Roads since 2000 Public since 2000 Spend Per capita Future road s Future public Spend 2 Per capita Central Cross City Tnl??? $.0bn $0.00 WestConnex ($16.8bn) Phase 3 Sydney Metro SW ($10.5bn) Sydney Light Rail ($2.2bn) $15.9bn $11, North Lane Cove Tnl ($1.1bn) Epping-Chatswood rail ($1.2bn) $2.3bn $2, NorthConnex ($3bn) Beaches Link ($3bn) Sydney Metro NW ($2.5bn) $8.5bn $7, South M5 East (ND)??? $.0bn $0.00??? Sydney Metro SW ($10.5bn) $5.2bn $5, South West Westlink M7 ($1.8bn) T-way (ND) South West Rail Link ($1.36bn) $2.3bn $3, W Sydney Infrastructure Plan ($3.6bn) Badgerys Creek Airport ($5.3bn) $4.5bn $3, West Westlink M7 ($1.8bn) T-way ($346m) $2.1bn $5, W Sydney Infrastructure Plan ($3.6bn) Badgerys Creek Airport ($5.3bn) $4.5bn $9, West Central??? T-way ($346m) $.3bn $ WestConnex ($16.8bn) Phase 1 Sydney Metro NW ($2.5bn) $10.9bn $7, infrastructure by district, and Sources: Greater Sydney Commission; Transport for New South Wales; NSW Roads & Maritime Services; smh.com.au; ABC News; Sydney Metro 1 Western Sydney Airport is not listed as a strategic centre; however, if included, in the early 2030s, [it] is expected to generate nearly 9,000 direct jobs (westernsydneyairport.gov.au) 2 Where a is located in multiple districts, spending is equally split between those districts
4 Thousands Thousands 200 Canterbury-Bankstown 56.7% (17) of suburbs growing Area benefits in report from Liverpool as an additional St George 62.5% (15) of suburbs declining Sutherland 90.6% (29) suburbs declining Kogarah, the only strategic centre in the South, is the second smallest in Sydney by its 2036 target; it is 45% the size of Liverpool (the median) and 36% the mean size of strategic centres outside Sydney CBD. 3. House price NSW ranking changes for St George & Sutherland Shire suburbs, Source: Realestate.com.au 4. Investment in major s per capita 5. Jobs based in strategic centres per capita $10.00 Investment in major s per capita $ Jobs based in strategic centres per capita $0.00 Central North South South West West West Central Central North South South West West West Central Strategic centre sizes by District Central North South South West West West Central
5 Line Closest strategic centre Central Strategic Peak Off-peak Peak Off-peak Allawah T4 Central Bankstown T3 Liverpool Belmore T3 Central Beverly Hills T2 Mascot Bexley North T2 Mascot Birrong T3 Liverpool Campsie T3 Central Canterbury T3 Central Caringbah T4 Central Carlton T4 Central Chester Hill T3 Liverpool Como T4 Central Cronulla T4 Central East Hills T2 Central Engadine T4 Central Gymea T4 Central Heathcote T4 Central Hurlstone Park T3 Central Hurstville T4 Central Jannali T4 Central Kingsgrove T2 Mascot Kirrawee T4 Central Kogarah T4 Central Lakemba T3 Central Leightonfield T3 Liverpool Loftus T4 Central Miranda T4 Central Mortdale T4 Central Narwee T2 Mascot Oatley T4 Central Padstow T2 Mascot Panania T2 Central Penshurst T4 Central Punchbowl T3 Central Regents Park T3 Central Revesby T2 Central Riverwood T2 Mascot Rockdale T4 Central Sefton T3 Liverpool Sutherland T4 Central Villawood T3 Liverpool Wiley Park T3 Central Woolooware T4 Central Yagoona T3 Liverpool East Hills line T2 30 min radius East Hills line T2 30 min radius 88.9% 66.7% 100.0% 100.0% Bankstown line T3 30 min radius Bankstown line T3 30 min radius 40.0% 33.3% 86.7% 86.7% Illawarra Line T4 30 min radius Illawarra Line T4 30 min radius 40.0% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0% 7. Commute times to strategic centres with at least 25,000 jobs
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