TOP END INDUSTRY SENTIMENT AT A GLANCE - SEPTEMBER QUARTER 2015

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1 TOP END INDUSTRY SENTIMENT AT A GLANCE - SEPTEMBER QUARTER 2 PERFORMANCE BUSINESS OUTLOOK Darwin and surrounds Sector performance index Kakadu / Arnhem Land (KAL) KAL Sector performance index No responses Katherine and surrounds Katherine Sector performance index *ix = index score out of 2. Attractions Touring and Transport Accommodation

2 IN FOCUS Kakadu National Park, 2 (Kakadu Region) OVERVIEW TOURISM NT TOP END INDUSTRY SENTIMENT POLL Report Period: tember Quarter 2 Question How did your NT tourism business measure in terms of total (both international and domestic) visitor numbers between July and tember 2 compared to the same period in 2? % Top End Visitor Performance % % -% -% Large rease rease Remained the Same Increase Large Increase From 71 Top End operators who responded to the 2 tember quarter poll, 27 operators reported an increase in visitation, compared to the same period in 2, whilst 28 reported a decrease. A further 16 operators reported no change. The Top End performance index for tember Quarter 2 was just below parity at 97ix (with ix being parity). This was 8 index points below the NT as a whole (15ix) and a 4 point drop from the e quarter result. This score implies that there were slightly less visitors to the region compared to the tember quarter in 2. The majority of operators considered that the outlook for their business was positive for the next months and reporting an index of 2ix and remains steady compared to the e quarter 2. The outlook for the next months for the region was also positive with a score of ix. This result is an increase of 7 points from last quarter. Forward bookings were below parity at 78ix, with all Top End region reporting scores below parity. This result is 3 index points below the tember 2 result. Publication date: November 2 Page 1 of 8 Ph: (8) , Fax: (8) ,

3 Index VISITATION - OVERALL Question: How did your NT tourism business measure in terms of total (both international and domestic) visitor numbers between July and tember 2 compared to the same period in 2? Visitor Performance Index qtr qtr qtr qtr qtr qtr NT Wide Top End Darwin Kakadu Arnhem Land Katherine qtr The Visitor Performance Index score of 97ix indicates that there were slightly fewer visitors to the Top End this high season compared to last year. This score was heaviliy influenced by Darwin, given that most Top End businesses operate from the region. Darwin was the only region to report a index score below parity (88ix). All other Top End regions reported a steady or positive index score. Once again, operators in the Katherine region reported the most positive performance index (3ix). Visitor Performance Index (Sector) qtr qtr qtr qtr qtr qtr qtr Top End Accommodation Attractions, Touring & Transport Other The performance index for accommodation providers in the Top End has dropped 18 index points from ix to 84ix. Attractions, touring and transport increased by 8 index points to 11ix. Businesses with 5 to 19 employees were the only businesses to report a score above parity at 17ix. Businesses with to 4 employees were close to parity at 98ix. Those with or more reported a score of 83ix and those with 2 to 49 reported the lowest score of 79ix. Publication date: November 2 Page 2 of 8

4 VISITATION DOMESTIC Question: How did your NT tourism business measure in terms of domestic visitor numbers between July and tember 2 compared to the same period in 2? 2 Domestic Performance Index qtr qtr qtr qtr qtr qtr NT Wide Top End Darwin Kakadu Arnhem Land Katherine qtr In the tember quarter 2, all regions in the Top End except Darwin have reported an index score either at parity or above. Darwin reported a score of 94ix (6 points below parity). Katherine reported the strongest performance in regards to domestic visitation (3ix) followed by Kakadu (14ix). Arnhem Land reported a score of ix (parity). The only sector to report a negative score regarding domestic visitor numbers in the Top End was Accommodation sector, reporting a score of 94ix, equaling its e quarter result. Attractions, touring and transport reported the highest score (118ix). Businesses with 5 to 19 employees were the only businesses to report a positive index score this quarter (ix) whilst businesses with to 4 employees reported a score on par (ix). Those with to 49 employees were just under parity at 96ix. Large businesses with + employees reported of 7ix 3 points below parity. Publication date: November 2 Page 3 of 8

5 VISITATION INTERNATIONAL Question: How did your NT tourism business measure in terms of international visitor numbers between July and tember 2 compared to the same period in 2? 2 International Performance Index qtr qtr qtr qtr qtr qtr NT Wide Top End Darwin Kakadu Arnhem Land Katherine qtr The International Performance Index for the Top End remains below parity (94ix), 6 points behind the NT as a whole. This indicates that the international market in the Top End remains soft. The Arnhem Land region reported the highest index with regard to international visitation in the Top End (5ix), followed by Katherine (1ix). Darwin reported the lowest index score for international performance (89ix) though it has increased 6 points from last quarter. All sectors reported scores below parity, with Attractions Touring and Transport reporting the best performance of 98ix, followed by other sectors with 96ix. The accommodation sector reported the lowest score (88ix). Businesses with 5 to 19 employees reported a score above parity (15ix) whilst all others were below. Businesses with or more employees reported a score of 63ix which is the lowest in the Top End this quarter. Publication date: November 2 Page 4 of 8

6 Index OUTLOOK - OWN BUSINESS Question: What do you think the outlook for your own tourism business will be like for the next months? 2 Business Outlook Index qtr qtr qtr qtr qtr Operators from all regions in the Top End continue to remain positive about the outlook for their business for the next month again reporting an overall score of 2ix. However is 4 points below the NT Wide result indicating operators in the Top End are not quite as optimistic as operators in the Centre. Operators in Arnhem Land and Katherine reported the highest score regarding the outlook for the next months (ix), whilst Darwin reported the lowest score (111ix). qtr qtr qtr qtr qtr qtr qtr qtr NT Wide Top End Darwin Kakadu Arnhem Land Katherine Business Outlook (Sector) qtr qtr qtr qtr qtr qtr qtr qtr qtr qtr qtr qtr NT Wide Accommodation Attractions, touring & transport Other qtr All sectors reported positive scores though the accommodation sector remained at the lower end of the scale at 1ix. Businesses of all sizes reported positive scores though businesses with 2 or more employees were least positive. Those with 5 to 19 employees were the most positive reporting a score of 6ix. Publication date: November 2 Page 5 of 8

7 Index OUTLOOK - REGION Question: What do you think the outlook for tourism in the region will be like for the next months? 2 Region Outlook Index qtr qtr qtr qtr qtr qtr qtr qtr qtr NT Wide Top End Darwin Kakadu Arnhem Land Katherine qtr Operators from all the regions expected their regions to perform better in the next months. Operators in Arnhem Land were the most optimistic about the improving conditions for the region with an index of ix. Kakadu reported the lowest score for regional outlook with a score of 17ix. All sectors were positive with Attractions, Touring and Transport recording the most positive index (5ix). The Accommodation sector was the least positive reporting a score of 1ix. Businesses with to 4 employees were the most positive about their region s outlook, reporting a score of 1ix, whist those with or more employees reported a score of ix (parity). FORWARD BOOKINGS Question: Generally speaking, which of the following best describes your forward bookings for the next three months compared to the same period last year? 2 Forward Bookings qtr qtr qtr NT Wide Top End Darwin Kakadu Arnhem 87 6 Katherine For operators who take forward bookings, the index has dropped to below parity for all regions. Arnhem Land has reported the lowest score at ix indicating forward bookings have dropped significantly in this region. Publication date: November 2 Page 6 of 8

8 OPERATOR CONCERNS AND COMMENTS Operators in Darwin raised concerns regarding need for Darwin to be marketed as a destination in its own right. Accommodation prices and increased accommodation competition in Darwin remain a concern. In Kakadu, operators have flagged concerns about the scheduled increase in park entry fees. The decreasing Australian dollar was seen as a having the potential to increase international visitation. INDUSTRY SENTIMENT - OTHER INFORMATION Each Index measure is derived by assigning a value of to a 'large decrease' response, to decrease, to 'same', to increase and 2 to a 'large increase'. An average value of across operators therefore indicates performance is "on par with the previous year". Tourism NT conducts an online poll every three months to provide a timely gauge for the health of the tourism industry. The poll was distributed to 587 tourism operators within the NT. There were 111 respondents, which equates to a response rate of 19%. Of the respondents, 81 respondents operate in the Top End region (this represents 72% of those who participated); 38 operate in the Centre region (34% of those who participated), whist 7 (6% of those who participated) reported they operated NT Wide. (NB: participants were able to nominate multiple regions/sectors therefor figures are greater than %). % 45% 4% 35% 3% 25% 2% % 1% 5% % 46% Darwin and surrounds % Kakadu and surrounds 3% Arnhem Land and surrounds Location % Katherine and surrounds 4% Tennant Creek and surrounds 22% Alice Springs and surrounds 4% Uluru and Surrounds 6% NT wide No. of Employees Sector + 7% Accommodation 46% 2 to 49 17% Touring / Transport 33% 5 to 19 38% Attractions 23% Hospitality 11% ( to 4) 37% Retail 5% 1 to 4 27% Business Events 1% Sole trader 1% Other 2% % 1% 2% 3% 4% % 2% 4% 6% Publication date: November 2 Page 7 of 8

9 OTHER BUSINESS AND CONSUMER SENTIMENT SURVEYS The Westpac Melbourne Institute Consumer confidence index has decreased marginally to 93.9 (compared to 95.3 in e), peaking at in May. The ANZ Roy Morgan Research Consumer Confidence score decrease from 1.5 in the e quarter to 11 in the tember quarter. AU Consumer Confidence Indexes 8 6 Westpac Meb Inst RMR 4 2 Jan- Feb- - Apr- May- - Jul- Aug- - The National Australia Bank s Quarterly Business Survey for the tember 2 quarter recovered by a further 6 index points (from 5 to 11) which is its highest level since early 28 with all sectors bar the mining industry reporting positive scores. The Transport and Tourism Forum released its TTF- MasterCard Tourism Industry Sentiment Survey report for the 1 st quarter of 2 in May. Strong international results have helped to off-set the gradual decline in sentiment regarding the domestic travel market. Concerns about cross-rates for the AU dollar have been mixed with appreciations against the pound and the Euro. Taxes on tourists are also high on the list of operator concerns. Australia s reputation as a tourist destination was third on the list of concerns in this report. Room supply and lack of nearby attractions were considered key impediments to business growth. Publication date: November 2 Page 8 of 8

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